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基于农户行为的水禽产业竞争力提升问题研究
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摘要
中国水禽产业发展历史悠久,是农业经济和畜牧业经济的重要组成部分。改革开放以来,在经济导向和政策支持的有利环境下,中国水禽产业发展迅速,除1998年受洪灾及2003年受禽流感影响外,水禽存栏量和出栏量均逐年递增,其中,水禽年出栏量的增长速度为每年5%-8%。2011年,中国水禽业总产值超过1500亿元,约占家禽业总产值的30%,成为中国畜牧业的重要组成部分。水禽产品风味独特、营养丰富、安全性高,价格为普通鸡产品的1.3-1.5倍,产业利润较好,经济效益显著,逐步成为促进现代畜牧业发展、带动农民致富的重要产业之一。目前中国已成为世界上最大的水禽生产国,鸭占到世界饲养量的70%左右,鹅占到世界饲养量的90%左右。
     尽管中国水禽产业在生产量上具有绝对国际竞争力,但中国并不是水禽贸易强国,其水禽产品出口主要以价格低廉的初级加工产品为主,利润空间较低,而其进口的产品则是以具有高额利润的水禽品种技术为主。例如,因国内良种繁育体系不健全,选育繁育手段落后,以致水禽产业过度依赖国外品种,致使以樱桃谷鸭、枫叶鸭为代表的外来品种垄断了中国水禽种苗市场及生产,造成了严重的产业利润流失,给产业的健康发展埋下安全隐患。此外,与国内同类产业相比,水禽产业整体竞争力落后于其他畜禽产业。水禽产品绝对生产量、消费量、产值与猪、牛行业以及肉鸡、蛋鸡行业仍有较大差距,对国民经济和社会发展的贡献也不及其他产业。也正因为如此,水禽产业一直未受到各界足够的重视,产业发展信息缺失,数据统计不全,导致政府宏观管理部门在确定产业发展重点、科学规划和布局水禽产业等方面的决策滞后,倾斜支持力度不够,宏观决策和市场调控的迟滞不力,严重阻碍了水禽产业的大发展。
     当然,水禽产业发展过程中存在的问题远不止于此。具体而言,存在以下5个方面的问题:(1)产业进入和退出门槛低、产品替代性强导致市场价格波动剧烈,从业者经营效益不稳;(2)产品消费需求趋于饱和边缘,扩展市场需求难度增大,产品结构亟待升级换代;(3)产业行业标准和统一规范缺失,各产业链环节没有统
     一标准,产品质量安全令人担忧;(4)养殖方式落后,疫病风险高,生态环境破坏性大;(5)水禽产业经营利润分配不均,产业链条上各环节经营主体间的利益分配不尽合理。
     鉴于以上原因,本文在对水禽产业生产经营活动进行实地调研与数据统计,获取有关产业发展的第一手信息资料的基础上,对以产业健康持续发展为目的的水禽产业竞争力提升问题进行研究。论文首先描述分析了水禽产业发展现状、存在的问题及产业竞争力发展概况,为政府、企业及其它产业从业者把握水禽产业在国际、国内之间的竞争态势与挑战提供依据。其次,论文从质量竞争力、价格竞争力、技术竞争力、组织竞争力四个方面对基于水禽产业农户行为的水禽产业竞争力提升问题进行研究,更具体、全面的对我国水禽产业竞争力水平及发展趋势进行透彻分析,有利于确定产业竞争力具体提升路径。最后,对水禽产业竞争力提升的配套政策进行研究,为政府推进水禽产业的健康可持续发展提供政策参考依据。并提出农户行为规范和优化策略,从产业链源头着手,通过改善农户行为,推行生态健康养殖方式、降低养殖成本、推广新技术应用、优化主体合作组织形式,从而促进整个产业竞争力的全面提升。
     全文的主要研究内容共分为8章。
     第1章为导言部分。作为整个论文基础部分,详细介绍了论文研究问题提出的缘由,对论文研究的理论基础和国内外研究动态作了梳理与总结,接纳吸收了前人的研究成就,并指出了其研究不足与空白,结合本文研究方向进行了文献评述。在此基础上,确定了论文的研究思路和技术路线,并对全文写作内容及使用的研究方法作了简要介绍。最后,对论文可能存在的创新点作了说明。
     第2章为我国水禽产业发展及竞争力现状部分。以水禽产业现有信息数据为基础,结合在全国范围的实地调查数据,首先对我国水禽产业整体发展现状及存在的问题进行研究,其次从国际竞争力、行业间竞争力、水禽产业自身竞争力3个方面,分析了我国水禽产业竞争力概况;然后结合产业发展特点,对影响水禽产业竞争力的价格竞争力、质量竞争力、技术竞争力、组织竞争力四个主要因素进行了描述分析;最后提出提升我国水禽产业竞争力的必要性和重要性。
     第3章对我国水禽产业质量竞争力进行研究。首先,阐述了生态健康养殖概念及其内涵,提出水禽健康养殖是提升水禽产业质量竞争力的重要途径;其次,从生态健康角度分析了我国水禽养殖模式现状。鉴于农户养殖行为直接关系整个产业链的产品质量安全水平,本章利用山东、安徽、湖北等水禽主产省农户调查问卷,采用logistic模型,对养殖户生态行为决策影响因素进行了实证分析,以期为提升农户生态健康养殖行为选择提供参考依据,进而促进水禽产业质量竞争力提升。
     第4章对我国水禽产业价格竞争力进行研究。本章首先通过对水禽产品价格波动状态及波动规律的分析,总结得出水禽产品价格波动机制与产业链各环节间的影响关系。其次,从内部生产供给层面和外部需求层面两个方面的影响因素,对影响水禽产业价格波动的各因素进行了分析。最后,利用VAR模型对养殖环节水禽价格传导机制进行了研究,以寻找影响价格波动的主要因素,以此为基础,在保证生产质量的前提下,尽量降低成本。同时,为提高水禽从业者的市场风险抵抗能力提供依据,进而提高水禽产品的价格竞争力。
     第5章对我国水禽产业技术竞争力进行研究。首先,分析了依靠新技术与优化养殖方式以提高养殖经济效益,对提升水禽产业竞争力的重要意义。其次,结合实地调研总结和调研数据对农户新技术采纳意愿进行了实证分析,最后对各显著影响因素进行了讨论分析,并根据模型结果提出促进农户新技术采纳意愿的建议。
     第6章对我国水禽产业组织竞争力进行研究。本章首先分析了组织竞争力对水禽产业竞争力的影响作用。其次,通过实地调研数据分析了目前我国水禽产业合作社发展概况。最后,在博弈论与信息经济学基础上,建立了企业、合作社与养殖户的动态博弈模型,以平衡个人理性与集体理性间的利益点,解决各利益主体之间的冲突,避免企业和农户在博弈过程中出现违约现象,优化水禽产业组织形式,使产业主体利润分配更均匀,促进产业平衡稳定发展。
     第7章为提升水禽产业竞争力的配套政策及农户行为规范研究。基于水禽产业竞争力发展现状及其发展过程中农户行为的分析结论,首先从产业发展角度提出了提升水禽产业竞争力的具体路径;其次,为进一步提升水禽产业竞争力,促进产业健康持续发展,提出相应的政府配套政策;最后,针对目前我国水禽养殖农户生产行为现状,根据农户行为的双重性、兼业性、经验性、短期现实性等性质特点,提出了水禽产业竞争力提升过程中农户行为优化策略。
     第8章为全文的研究结论与展望。本章首先对全文研究基本结论进行总结,认为水禽产业整体竞争力仍有待提升,改善农户生态养殖行为以促进产业质量竞争力提升,降低养殖环节生产要素成本以增强产业价格竞争力,促进养殖户新技术采纳意愿以提升产业技术竞争力,加强水禽养殖农户组织化程度以提升产业组织竞争力。最后,提出了论文研究的不足,并在此基础上,提出了下一步的研究展望。
With a long history, the development of waterfowl industry composes an important part of both agricultural and animal husbandry economy. Under the favorable environment of economic orientation and policy support, waterfowl industry in China has gone through a rapid development since the policy of reform and opening up. Except for the impact of floods in1998and the avian flu in2003, there has been a yearly increase in waterfowl stock and slaughtering volume, among which the growth rate of slaughtering volume ranges from5%to8%per year. In2011, the gross output value of Chinese waterfowl industry was over150billion yuan, accounting for30%of the total output value of the poultry industry. Therefore, waterfowl industry has become an important constituent part of the Chinese animal husbandry. Besides, with unique flavors, abundant nutrition and high safety, waterfowl products have the price which is1.3to1.5times that of ordinary chicken products. So the impressive industrial profits and significant economic benefits have gradually made waterfowl industry one of the major industries which can promote the development of modern animal husbandry and guide farmers to achieve prosperity. So far, China has become the world's largest country in waterfowl production, with the raising amount of ducks accounting for world's70%and the amount of geese accounting for about90%.
     Although Chinese waterfowl industry has obtained absolute international competitiveness in production, this does not mean that China has superpower in waterfowl trade. The exports mainly consist of primary processed products at low prices with small profit margin, and the imported products are primarily breeding technologies with high profits. For instance, defective domestic breeding system and backward breeding methods lead to the over-reliance of waterfowl industry on foreign varieties. Consequently, exotic species like Cherry Valley ducks and Maple ducks have monopolized Chinese waterfowl seed market and production, resulting in serious loss in industrial profits and potential safety risks for industrial sound development. In addition, compared with the similar domestic industries, the overall competitiveness of waterfowl industry lags behind other poultry industries. The absolute production, consumption and output of waterfowl products still leaves a large distance from swine, cattle, and chicken industries, contributing less to national economic and social development than other industries. Therefore, insufficient attention is paid to waterfowl industry. The lack of industrial development information and the incomplete statistics have resulted in the lagged decision-making of macroeconomic management departments of the government in determining the focus of industrial development, scientific planning and layout of waterfowl industry. Besides,the short of tilt policy supports and the sluggish macro decision-making and market regulation have caused a serious impediment to the great development of waterfowl industry.
     Furthermore, the problems in the development of waterfowl industry is much more than those mentioned above. Specifically, there are five problems as follows:(1) a low industrial entry and exit standard and the strong product substitutability lead to a drastic fluctuation in market price and instable management efficiency;(2)the demand verging to saturation, expansion of market demand becomes more difficult with an urgent upgrading of product structure;(3) lack of industrial standards, unified regulations and a unified standard in each link of industrial chain results in alarming product quality and safety;(4)the backward breeding methods leads to a high risk of diseases and the destructive effect to eco-environment;(5) there are uneven distribution of profits in waterfowl industry and unreasonable interests distribution among business entities in each link of the industrial chain.
     Therefore, this dissertation studies on the promotion of waterfowl industry's competitiveness with the purpose of healthy and sustainable industrial development, on the basis of first-hand information related to industrial development from field researches and statistic analysis. Firstly, the development status, problems and industrial competitiveness of waterfowl industry are described and analyzed, providing basis for the government, enterprises, and other industrial practitioners to understand international and domestic competitive situation and challenges of waterfowl industry. Secondly, this dissertation studies on the promotion of behavior-oriented competitiveness based on four aspects:the competitiveness of quality, price, technology and organizations. A more specific, comprehensive and profound analysis is conducted on the level of competitiveness and the development trend of waterfowl industry in China, which can be helpful to determine the specific improving path of industrial competitiveness. Finally, some policy references are proposed for the government to promote healthy and sustainable development of waterfowl industry, according to the research on supporting policies of promoting competitiveness of waterfowl industry. Also, the behavior specification for farmers and some optimization strategies are put forward. Starting with the source of the industrial chain, the improvement of farmers'behavior, the implementation of ecological and healthy breeding methods, the reduction of farming costs, the promotion of new technology application, and optimization of the main cooperative forms of organization, can all be employed to promote the overall competitiveness of the whole industry.
     The main research content can be divided into eight chapters.
     Chapter1is an introduction. As the foundation of the entire dissertation, this chapter, in details, introduces the reason for research questions, concludes and summarizes the theoretical basis and foreign research trends, absorbs the achievements of the previous studies, points out the deficiency and blank, and then conducts a literature review referring to the direction of this research. On this basis, the research ideas and technical route are determined, and also the whole content and the research methods used are briefly introduced. Finally, the possible innovation in this research is explained.
     Chapter2concerns with the development and competitiveness status of waterfowl industry in China. The data is from the available information of waterfowl industry and the data from a nationwide field research. Firstly, the overall development situation and existing problems of waterfowl industry in China are studied. Followed is the analysis on competitiveness status of waterfowl industry from three aspects, international competitiveness, inter-industry competitiveness and industrial competitiveness. Then, with the industrial developing characteristics, a descriptive analysis is conducted on four dominant factors influencing the competitiveness—price, quality, technology and organization. At last, the necessity and importance to enhance the industrial competitiveness of waterfowl industry in China are explained.
     Chapter3focuses on quality competitiveness of waterfowl industry. First of all, it explains the concept and connotation of ecological and healthy breeding, and proposes that healthy breeding should be the essential way to enhance the the quality competitiveness of waterfowl industry. Secondly, the status quo of breeding modes in China is analyzed from the perspective of ecological health. As farmers" behaviors directly affect product quality and safety in the whole industry chain, an empirical analysis is conducted on influencing factors of farmers'decision on ecological behavior, using logistic model and questionnaires for farmers in Shandong, Anhui, Hubei and other main production provinces. Some references are expected to be provided to improve farmers' ecological and healthy breeding, then contributing to raising quality competitiveness of waterfowl industry.
     Chapter4discusses the price competitiveness of waterfowl industry. This chapter begins with the analysis on the fluctuation and discipline of waterfowl products'price. A conclusion is made on the relationship between the price fluctuation mechanism and each link in the industrial chain. Secondly, the factors for price fluctuation are analyzed from the perspectives of internal production supply and external demand. Finally, this chapter studies on the price conducting mechanism with VAR model to find the main factors affecting the price fluctuations, thus the costs can be minimized while ensuring quality. Meanwhile, with the basis provided for practitioners to resist market risks, the price competitiveness of waterfowl industry can be improved.
     Chapter5involves the technological competitiveness of waterfowl industry. At the beginning, it is proposed that to ameliorate the economic efficiency of farming through new technologies and methods optimization should be significant for improving industrial competitiveness of waterfowl industry. Then, the empirical study is conducted on farmers' willingness to adopt new technologies, with the data and summaries from field researches. Finally, the significant factors are discussed and some suggestions on the promotion of new technology application are presented based on the results of models.
     Chapter6discusses organizational competitiveness of waterfowl industry. This chapter firstly analyzes the impact of organizational competitiveness on the waterfowl industrial competitiveness. Secondly, current development of cooperatives of waterfowl industry in China is analyzed based on the data from field researches. Finally, a dynamic game model of enterprises, cooperatives and farmers is established based on game theory and information economics. This model helps explain how to strike a interests balance between individual and collective rationality, to relieve the conflicts among various stakeholders, and to avoid defaults of enterprises or farmers during the game, thus to optimize the industrial organization and promote a balanced distribution of profits among industrial entities, and finally to achieve the stable development of the industry.
     In chapter7, the supporting policies and specification of farmers'behavior to improve waterfowl industrial competitiveness are discussed. According to the development status of waterfowl industrial competitiveness and the conclusions from analysis of farmers' behavior, the specific path of improving waterfowl industrial competitiveness is firstly proposed from the perspective of industrial development. Secondly, the corresponding supporting policies are put forward in order to further enhance waterfowl industrial competitiveness and to promote industrial healthy and sustainable development. Finally, some strategies for optimization of farmers'behavior are presented, according to the current situation of waterfowl breeding in China and the nature of farmers' behavior—duality, part-time business, experiential nature, short-term reality.
     Chapter8is the conclusion and prospects. This chapter begins with the summary of all research conclusions. The conclusions are that the overall competitiveness of waterfowl industry is yet to be advanced, that to improve farmers ecological breeding helps to promote industrial quality competitiveness, that to reduce the factor costs in breeding helps to enhance industrial price competitiveness, that to promote farmers' willingness to adopt new technologies helps to improve industrial technological competitiveness, and that to deepen the organizational degree of farmers helps to enhance industrial organizational competitiveness. Finally, the drawbacks of the research is presented based on which research prospects are proposed.
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