高速铁路运行控制用地震动参数及单台地震预警技术研究
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摘要
地震预警是近年来发展起来的防震减灾的有效手段之一。中国是一个地震多发国家，同时地震也是一种发生概率较小但对铁路行车安全危害极大的自然灾害，随着我国铁路实施了六次大提速和开行高速列车，列车运行速度和列车密度的不断提高，较小震级的地震对路基、轨道、桥梁等的冲击都可能导致危害旅客生命安全的重大事故。在这种形势下，地震时如果能在破坏性地震动到来前提早哪怕是短短的几十秒甚至几秒对高速铁路实施报警和紧急处置，将大大降低旅客生命财产损失的发生概率，因此对中国高速铁路来说迫切需要建设地震预警系统。
本文详细分析了技术研究和实践经历都相对成熟的日本新干线地震监测及预警系统的发展历程、运行控制用地震动参数以及地震预警关键技术研究现状，以日本新干线地震防灾系统相关关键技术为基础，并以强震动观测数据为依据，针对中国高速铁路地震地震预警系统亟待解决的关键技术问题，主要围绕高速铁路运行控制用地震动参数选取及其标准值确定、高速铁路单台地震预警中震源参数快速确定方法两方面内容作了相关研究，研究内容概述如下：
（1）在日本新干线警报地震计带通滤波器的基础上，提出了设计原理更明确、设计方法更简单、并能用于中国高速铁路地震动阈值报警的带通滤波器，给出了该数字带通滤波器的设计方法及递归方程；
（2）利用日本K-net强震观测数据和中国CSMNC强震观测数据，统计建立了日本气象厅计测震度I jma、仪器烈度标准I s、加速度峰值、谱烈度SI、阿里亚斯烈度I a、累积绝对速度CAV以及累积能量变化率DE等地震动参数间的关系，分析了各地震动参数间的线性相关性。利用日本东北新干线在三次大地震中高架桥破坏分布的资料以及东北新干线沿线K-net台站和KiK-net台站强震动观测数据，得到了各地震动参数在实际地震破坏中的下限值，给出了各地震动参数与结构破坏变化及结构破坏分布的关系；
（3）依据各地震动参数间的统计关系，转换得到了与加速度峰值阈值（地震时警报值：40gal，地震后限速值：80gal，地震后停车值：120gal）相对应的其它地震动参数阈值，通过地震时警报值的误报漏报分析和时效性分析、震后限速值和停车值的合理性分析，结合统计关系中各地震动参数间的相关性以及各地震动参数与新干线高架桥柱破坏变化和破坏分布的关系，提出了中国高速铁路运行控制用地震动参数的阈值建议值。研究了竖向分量地震动参数用于运行控制的可行性，提出了相应的警报阈值建议值；
（4）在日本单台利用P波初始阶段幅值增长率估算震中距B-Δ方法的基础上，通过研究B-Δ方法的理论形式，利用中国CSMNC强震观测数据，验证了通过线性拟合P波初始阶段幅值包络确定震中距的C-Δ方法，该方法可以在P波触发后0.5秒就可以得到理想的震中距估算结果，并明确了该方法在高频条件能得到更优的震中距确定结果。此外，针对该方法在实时应用中的缺陷，提出了利用阿里亚斯烈度P波初始阶段幅值增长率估算震中距的A-Δ方法，不同估算时间窗的计算结果表明，该方法可以在P波触发后0.7秒给出稳定的震中距估算结果，P波触发后1.0秒得到最佳的震中距估算结果，且有着优异的实时应用前景；
（5）建立了基于中国CSMNC强震观测数据的地震预警系统中常用的p max、 c以及Pd这三种地震波特征参数与震级的比例关系，误差分析结果表明Pd得到的震级估算结果最优。分析了全波段各地震动参数与震级的比例关系，结果显示全波段平方速度IV2得到的估算震级与实际震级最符合1:1的线性比例关系，且在不同震级范围的误差都较小，建立了P波段平方速度IV2p与全波段平方速度IV2的比例关系，并且通过P波段平方速度IV2p与全波段平方速度IV2的比例关系解释了现有地震预警震级估算方法在大震级处低估震级的原因，进而提出了一种利用平方速度IV2连续估算震级的方法，该方法可以P波触发后5秒获得最佳的震级估算结果。
Earthquake early warning is one of the effective means of protecting againstand mitigating earthquake disasters developed in recent years. China is anearthquake-prone country. Earthquake is a natural disaster which probabilityis small but hazards to railway safety is high. With the rapid development ofhigh-speed railway, it is urgent for Chinese high-speed railway construction ofearthquake early warning system.
Aiming at solving the key technical problems of earthquake disasterprevention system in Chinese high-speed railway, the development history ofthe Japanese Shinkansen earthquake monitoring and earthquake early warningsystem was reviewed, the current status of earthquake ground motionparameters for operation control and the key technology of the earthquakeearly warning were summarized. Related research focused on earthquakeground motion indices and the rapid estimated method for focal parameters insingle-station earthquake early warning was developed, based on the keytechnology of the earthquake early warning for Japanese Shinkansen andground motion data. Overview of the research results is as follows:
(1) Based on Japanese Shinkansen alert seismometer band-pass filter, theband-pass filter applied in Chinese high-speed railway was developed, and thedesign method and recursion equation of IIR digital band-pass filter werepresented.
(2) Using Japanese K-net strong motion data and Chinese CSMNC strongmotion data, the statistical relationships between several ground motionparameters were set up. These ground motion parameters included, JapaneseMeteorological Agency seismic instrumental intensity-I jma, Chinese seismicinstrument intensity standard-I s, Peak Ground Acceleration, SpectralIntensity-SI, Arias Intensity-I a, Cumulative Absolute Velocity-CAV,Cumulative Differential of Energy-DE, the linear dependence between groundmotion parameters was analysed. The relationships between ground motionparameters and the earthquake damage distribution were presented, using thedata of Japanese Shinkansen viaduct column damage distribution in threegreat earthquakes and the data of K-net stations and KiK-net stations alongthe Tohoku Shinkansen.
(3) According to the statistical relationships between ground motionparameters, the threshold value for other ground motion parameters wasanalysed by converting, corresponding to the threshold value for Peak GroundAcceleration(alarm value:40gal, speed-limit value:80gal, stop value:120gal). Using false alarm and fail alarm analysis and the realtime analysis forthe alarm value and the rationality analysis for the speed-limit value and stopvalue, combining with the statistical relationships between ground motion parameters and the relationships between ground motion parameters and theShinkansen viaduct column damage distribution, the ground motion indicesand corresponding threshold value were presented. The feasibility of theground motion parameters calculating from vertical component as the alarmvalue was studied.
(4) Based on single-station estimating epicentral distance method, B-Δ method,which uses initial amplitude growth rate after P-wave arrival, through thetheory form B-Δ method, using Chinese CSMNC strong earthquakeobservation data to verify C-Δ method by linear fitting initial amplitudeenvelope of P-wave, this method can get ideal epicentral distance estimationresults after0.5seconds P-wave triggered. Facing to defects of this method ina realtime application, A-Δ method of using Arias Intensity initial amplitudegrowth rate after P-wave arrival to estimate the epicentral distance is proposed.The results show that this method can get stable the epicentral distanceestimation results after0.7seconds P-wave triggered.
(5) The magnitude scaling relationships using τpmax, τcand Pd from the first3sof P-wave arrivals based on Chinese CSMNC strong motion data wasdeveloped. The results of error analysis have shown that the magnitudeestimation of Pd is optimal. The linear proportional relationship betweenP-wave square velocity IV2pand the full-wave square velocity IV2wasdeveloped. A continuous magnitude estimation method using square velocityIV2was presented. The results show that this method can get optimal resultafter5seconds P-wave triggered.
本文详细分析了技术研究和实践经历都相对成熟的日本新干线地震监测及预警系统的发展历程、运行控制用地震动参数以及地震预警关键技术研究现状，以日本新干线地震防灾系统相关关键技术为基础，并以强震动观测数据为依据，针对中国高速铁路地震地震预警系统亟待解决的关键技术问题，主要围绕高速铁路运行控制用地震动参数选取及其标准值确定、高速铁路单台地震预警中震源参数快速确定方法两方面内容作了相关研究，研究内容概述如下：
（1）在日本新干线警报地震计带通滤波器的基础上，提出了设计原理更明确、设计方法更简单、并能用于中国高速铁路地震动阈值报警的带通滤波器，给出了该数字带通滤波器的设计方法及递归方程；
（2）利用日本K-net强震观测数据和中国CSMNC强震观测数据，统计建立了日本气象厅计测震度I jma、仪器烈度标准I s、加速度峰值、谱烈度SI、阿里亚斯烈度I a、累积绝对速度CAV以及累积能量变化率DE等地震动参数间的关系，分析了各地震动参数间的线性相关性。利用日本东北新干线在三次大地震中高架桥破坏分布的资料以及东北新干线沿线K-net台站和KiK-net台站强震动观测数据，得到了各地震动参数在实际地震破坏中的下限值，给出了各地震动参数与结构破坏变化及结构破坏分布的关系；
（3）依据各地震动参数间的统计关系，转换得到了与加速度峰值阈值（地震时警报值：40gal，地震后限速值：80gal，地震后停车值：120gal）相对应的其它地震动参数阈值，通过地震时警报值的误报漏报分析和时效性分析、震后限速值和停车值的合理性分析，结合统计关系中各地震动参数间的相关性以及各地震动参数与新干线高架桥柱破坏变化和破坏分布的关系，提出了中国高速铁路运行控制用地震动参数的阈值建议值。研究了竖向分量地震动参数用于运行控制的可行性，提出了相应的警报阈值建议值；
（4）在日本单台利用P波初始阶段幅值增长率估算震中距B-Δ方法的基础上，通过研究B-Δ方法的理论形式，利用中国CSMNC强震观测数据，验证了通过线性拟合P波初始阶段幅值包络确定震中距的C-Δ方法，该方法可以在P波触发后0.5秒就可以得到理想的震中距估算结果，并明确了该方法在高频条件能得到更优的震中距确定结果。此外，针对该方法在实时应用中的缺陷，提出了利用阿里亚斯烈度P波初始阶段幅值增长率估算震中距的A-Δ方法，不同估算时间窗的计算结果表明，该方法可以在P波触发后0.7秒给出稳定的震中距估算结果，P波触发后1.0秒得到最佳的震中距估算结果，且有着优异的实时应用前景；
（5）建立了基于中国CSMNC强震观测数据的地震预警系统中常用的p max、 c以及Pd这三种地震波特征参数与震级的比例关系，误差分析结果表明Pd得到的震级估算结果最优。分析了全波段各地震动参数与震级的比例关系，结果显示全波段平方速度IV2得到的估算震级与实际震级最符合1:1的线性比例关系，且在不同震级范围的误差都较小，建立了P波段平方速度IV2p与全波段平方速度IV2的比例关系，并且通过P波段平方速度IV2p与全波段平方速度IV2的比例关系解释了现有地震预警震级估算方法在大震级处低估震级的原因，进而提出了一种利用平方速度IV2连续估算震级的方法，该方法可以P波触发后5秒获得最佳的震级估算结果。
Earthquake early warning is one of the effective means of protecting againstand mitigating earthquake disasters developed in recent years. China is anearthquake-prone country. Earthquake is a natural disaster which probabilityis small but hazards to railway safety is high. With the rapid development ofhigh-speed railway, it is urgent for Chinese high-speed railway construction ofearthquake early warning system.
Aiming at solving the key technical problems of earthquake disasterprevention system in Chinese high-speed railway, the development history ofthe Japanese Shinkansen earthquake monitoring and earthquake early warningsystem was reviewed, the current status of earthquake ground motionparameters for operation control and the key technology of the earthquakeearly warning were summarized. Related research focused on earthquakeground motion indices and the rapid estimated method for focal parameters insingle-station earthquake early warning was developed, based on the keytechnology of the earthquake early warning for Japanese Shinkansen andground motion data. Overview of the research results is as follows:
(1) Based on Japanese Shinkansen alert seismometer band-pass filter, theband-pass filter applied in Chinese high-speed railway was developed, and thedesign method and recursion equation of IIR digital band-pass filter werepresented.
(2) Using Japanese K-net strong motion data and Chinese CSMNC strongmotion data, the statistical relationships between several ground motionparameters were set up. These ground motion parameters included, JapaneseMeteorological Agency seismic instrumental intensity-I jma, Chinese seismicinstrument intensity standard-I s, Peak Ground Acceleration, SpectralIntensity-SI, Arias Intensity-I a, Cumulative Absolute Velocity-CAV,Cumulative Differential of Energy-DE, the linear dependence between groundmotion parameters was analysed. The relationships between ground motionparameters and the earthquake damage distribution were presented, using thedata of Japanese Shinkansen viaduct column damage distribution in threegreat earthquakes and the data of K-net stations and KiK-net stations alongthe Tohoku Shinkansen.
(3) According to the statistical relationships between ground motionparameters, the threshold value for other ground motion parameters wasanalysed by converting, corresponding to the threshold value for Peak GroundAcceleration(alarm value:40gal, speed-limit value:80gal, stop value:120gal). Using false alarm and fail alarm analysis and the realtime analysis forthe alarm value and the rationality analysis for the speed-limit value and stopvalue, combining with the statistical relationships between ground motion parameters and the relationships between ground motion parameters and theShinkansen viaduct column damage distribution, the ground motion indicesand corresponding threshold value were presented. The feasibility of theground motion parameters calculating from vertical component as the alarmvalue was studied.
(4) Based on single-station estimating epicentral distance method, B-Δ method,which uses initial amplitude growth rate after P-wave arrival, through thetheory form B-Δ method, using Chinese CSMNC strong earthquakeobservation data to verify C-Δ method by linear fitting initial amplitudeenvelope of P-wave, this method can get ideal epicentral distance estimationresults after0.5seconds P-wave triggered. Facing to defects of this method ina realtime application, A-Δ method of using Arias Intensity initial amplitudegrowth rate after P-wave arrival to estimate the epicentral distance is proposed.The results show that this method can get stable the epicentral distanceestimation results after0.7seconds P-wave triggered.
(5) The magnitude scaling relationships using τpmax, τcand Pd from the first3sof P-wave arrivals based on Chinese CSMNC strong motion data wasdeveloped. The results of error analysis have shown that the magnitudeestimation of Pd is optimal. The linear proportional relationship betweenP-wave square velocity IV2pand the full-wave square velocity IV2wasdeveloped. A continuous magnitude estimation method using square velocityIV2was presented. The results show that this method can get optimal resultafter5seconds P-wave triggered.
引文
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