地震预警系统关键技术研究
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摘要
地震预警系统作为一种能够有效减轻地震灾害的新手段，已经受到了越来越多的重视，世界上多个国家和地区都已建立了各自的地震预警系统。其中，有的地震预警系统已经正式投入使用并取得了明显的减灾效果，有的还正在进行在线测试。本文即主要针对地震预警系统建设中的几个关键技术展开研究。重点对地震预警连续定位、地震震级连续测定、预警信息可靠度、预警信息发布方案等问题进行了研究，并以四川汶川地震、台湾集集地震及东日本大地震等三个大地震为例，分别对本文提出的一些方法进行验证分析。本文所做主要工作如下：
（1）提出了一套完整的地震预警连续定位方法。该方法对已知的少量信息进行充分运用，从单个台站触发开始即能够对可能的震中位置进行判断限定，随着触发时间的增加能的震中区域逐渐缩小，当触发台站数达到或超过3台后即可以根本文推导的公式计算得到较为准确的地震定位结果。此外，根据本文定位方法的误差分析公式事先也能够对地震定位结果的质量进行评定，有助于提高地震定位结果的准确性和可靠性。应用福建台网实际震例的测试验证结果表明，采用本文方法能够获得准确可靠的地震定位结果，同时也满足地震预警系统的高度时效性要求。
（2）通过总结分析现有的一些地震预警震级计算方法，推荐采用国际上常用的c和Pd两种算法进行预警震级计算，利用收集到的一些地震事件数据，分别拟合得到了这两个参数与地震震级间的统计关系式。此外，作者对Pd方法进行了拓展，当台站触发后即开始对位移幅值进行连续追踪，从而实现了预警震级的持续更新。与此同时，根据位移幅值Pd还能够对峰值地面运动速度PGV进行持续预测。由于地震警报发布时，处于不同震中距处的各个台站中可用信息量不同，作者还分别提出了四种不同的加权组合方案计算最终震级结果。
（3）针对地震预警系统的高度准确性要求，结合各个特征参数之间不同的特性，分别从信噪比、参数相容性、参数协调性、定位结果可靠性等几个角度对地震预警信息的可靠程度进行判定。利用福建台网的一些实际观测数据对本文相关可靠度检测准则的验证结果表明，本文方法能够有效地排除一些干扰信息的影响，有助于提高预警信息发布的可信性。
（4）借鉴日本气象厅计测烈度计算方法并结合我国建筑结构的主要频带范围（0.3Hz-3.0Hz），推荐了一套完整的地震仪器烈度算法。该算法物理含义明确，能够对地震动的幅值、频谱、持时等三要素进行合理考虑，并能够对三分向地震动充分利用。采用该方法，作者推荐了一个地震仪器烈度标准，该标准也与我国现行地震烈度标准有较好地衔接和继承。以汶川地震为例对本文方法的验证结果表明，采用本文方法的仪器烈度计算结果与现场烈度调查结果有较高的符合率，充分表明了本文方法的适用性和可靠性。
（5）以福建地区为例，基于福建地区现有地震观测台网资源并结合该地区地震活动性特点，研究确定了地震预警系统信息发布方案，获得了地震预警信息发布所需时间等值图等一系列图件。根据该信息发布方案，以福建地区历史地震资料和潜在震源区划分资料为依据，分别对地震预警系统在福建地区的应用效率进行评估。
（6）利用从四川汶川地震、台湾集集地震及东日本大地震等三个大地震中收集到的实际观测记录，分别对本文所提出的相关方法进行验证分析，并针对验证过程中发现的问题展开讨论。
As a new and effective way of earthquake hazards mitigation, EarthquakeEarly Warning (EEW) system has drawn more and more attentions. Severalcountries and regions have already built their own EEW system or still test on it.In this paper, we focus on some key technologies that used in EEW system andmade research of them. Such as continuous earthquake location method,earthquake magnitude estimation method, reliability of EEW information, warninginformation release scheme are all include in this paper. Based on seismic recordsof great Wenchuan earthquake, Chi-Chi earthquake and the2011off the Pacificcoast of Tohoku earthquake in Japan, the feasibility and applicability of ourmethod was verified and analyzed. The contents are summarized as follows:
(1) A continuous earthquake location method was developed in this paper.The location method make a full use of limited information and the epicenter ofthe earthquake can be constrained with just one station triggered, the possibleregion of the epicenter will gradually reduced with time increase. When3or morestations triggered, we can get more accurate result by take the location formulaproposed in this paper. By taking the location error estimation formula deduced inthis paper, we can make a prejudgment of the location quality, the accuracy andreliability of the location results will be improved in this way. We test our methodby using some actual observation records in Fujian seismic monitoring networks,results show that our method have certain precision and meet the highly timelinessrequirements of EEW system.
(2) By analysis of the earthquake magnitude estimation method used inEEW system, we recommend the cand Pdmethod as the two priority methodsused in earthquake magnitude estimation. We obtain the magnitude estimationformulas of these two parameters based on several earthquake records. In addition,we expand the Pdmethod, and trace the peak ground motion of displacement sincestation triggered, and then the earthquake magnitude can be continuous updating.Meanwhile, the peak ground motion of velocity (PGV) can be estimate moreaccurate by taking the Pdparameter. Due to different epicenter distance ofdifferent stations, available information at each station will be different, then theprecision of magnitude results calculate at each station will be different too, weproposed4weighting approach to calculate the comprehensive earthquakemagnitude.
(3) According to the highly accuracy requirement of the EEW system, wecombined different characteristics of different parameters, and test the reliabilityof information through several different ways, such as signal to noise ration,compatibility of parameters, coordinate of parameters and reliability of locationresult etc. We collect several seismic data recorded by Fujian seismic monitoring network to test our method, results show that by taking this method, we caneliminate the interference information effectively, and then the dependability ofthe EEW system will be improved.
(4) Following the JMA instrumental seismic intensity method, combinedwith the main frequency range of building structure in our country (0.3Hz-3.0Hz),we proposed a complete set of instrumental seismic intensity calculation algorithm.The algorithm have a clear physic meaning, and made a reasonable consider ofamplitude, frequency and duration of ground motions, also it made full use of3components records. Based on this algorithm, we proposed an instrumentalseismic intensity standard, it reasonable inheritance and convergence of thecurrent Chinese seismic intensity standard. Take Wenchuan earthquake forexample, test results shows that the instrumental seismic intensity calculationresults consistant well with the seismic intensity field investigation results, whichfully indicated the applicability and reliability of our method.
(5) Take Fujian province for example, combined with seismic stations andseismic activities data in this region, we studied and determined the warninginformation release scheme, and the contour maps of time needed for each reportcan be obtain according to this scheme. Based on historical earthquakes data andthe potential seismic source areas in Fujian region, we make an evaluation of theefficiency of EEW system.
(6) By using seismic records of great Wenchuan earthquake, Chi-Chiearthquake, and the2011off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake in Japan, thefeasibility and applicability of our method was verified and analyzed.
（1）提出了一套完整的地震预警连续定位方法。该方法对已知的少量信息进行充分运用，从单个台站触发开始即能够对可能的震中位置进行判断限定，随着触发时间的增加能的震中区域逐渐缩小，当触发台站数达到或超过3台后即可以根本文推导的公式计算得到较为准确的地震定位结果。此外，根据本文定位方法的误差分析公式事先也能够对地震定位结果的质量进行评定，有助于提高地震定位结果的准确性和可靠性。应用福建台网实际震例的测试验证结果表明，采用本文方法能够获得准确可靠的地震定位结果，同时也满足地震预警系统的高度时效性要求。
（2）通过总结分析现有的一些地震预警震级计算方法，推荐采用国际上常用的c和Pd两种算法进行预警震级计算，利用收集到的一些地震事件数据，分别拟合得到了这两个参数与地震震级间的统计关系式。此外，作者对Pd方法进行了拓展，当台站触发后即开始对位移幅值进行连续追踪，从而实现了预警震级的持续更新。与此同时，根据位移幅值Pd还能够对峰值地面运动速度PGV进行持续预测。由于地震警报发布时，处于不同震中距处的各个台站中可用信息量不同，作者还分别提出了四种不同的加权组合方案计算最终震级结果。
（3）针对地震预警系统的高度准确性要求，结合各个特征参数之间不同的特性，分别从信噪比、参数相容性、参数协调性、定位结果可靠性等几个角度对地震预警信息的可靠程度进行判定。利用福建台网的一些实际观测数据对本文相关可靠度检测准则的验证结果表明，本文方法能够有效地排除一些干扰信息的影响，有助于提高预警信息发布的可信性。
（4）借鉴日本气象厅计测烈度计算方法并结合我国建筑结构的主要频带范围（0.3Hz-3.0Hz），推荐了一套完整的地震仪器烈度算法。该算法物理含义明确，能够对地震动的幅值、频谱、持时等三要素进行合理考虑，并能够对三分向地震动充分利用。采用该方法，作者推荐了一个地震仪器烈度标准，该标准也与我国现行地震烈度标准有较好地衔接和继承。以汶川地震为例对本文方法的验证结果表明，采用本文方法的仪器烈度计算结果与现场烈度调查结果有较高的符合率，充分表明了本文方法的适用性和可靠性。
（5）以福建地区为例，基于福建地区现有地震观测台网资源并结合该地区地震活动性特点，研究确定了地震预警系统信息发布方案，获得了地震预警信息发布所需时间等值图等一系列图件。根据该信息发布方案，以福建地区历史地震资料和潜在震源区划分资料为依据，分别对地震预警系统在福建地区的应用效率进行评估。
（6）利用从四川汶川地震、台湾集集地震及东日本大地震等三个大地震中收集到的实际观测记录，分别对本文所提出的相关方法进行验证分析，并针对验证过程中发现的问题展开讨论。
As a new and effective way of earthquake hazards mitigation, EarthquakeEarly Warning (EEW) system has drawn more and more attentions. Severalcountries and regions have already built their own EEW system or still test on it.In this paper, we focus on some key technologies that used in EEW system andmade research of them. Such as continuous earthquake location method,earthquake magnitude estimation method, reliability of EEW information, warninginformation release scheme are all include in this paper. Based on seismic recordsof great Wenchuan earthquake, Chi-Chi earthquake and the2011off the Pacificcoast of Tohoku earthquake in Japan, the feasibility and applicability of ourmethod was verified and analyzed. The contents are summarized as follows:
(1) A continuous earthquake location method was developed in this paper.The location method make a full use of limited information and the epicenter ofthe earthquake can be constrained with just one station triggered, the possibleregion of the epicenter will gradually reduced with time increase. When3or morestations triggered, we can get more accurate result by take the location formulaproposed in this paper. By taking the location error estimation formula deduced inthis paper, we can make a prejudgment of the location quality, the accuracy andreliability of the location results will be improved in this way. We test our methodby using some actual observation records in Fujian seismic monitoring networks,results show that our method have certain precision and meet the highly timelinessrequirements of EEW system.
(2) By analysis of the earthquake magnitude estimation method used inEEW system, we recommend the cand Pdmethod as the two priority methodsused in earthquake magnitude estimation. We obtain the magnitude estimationformulas of these two parameters based on several earthquake records. In addition,we expand the Pdmethod, and trace the peak ground motion of displacement sincestation triggered, and then the earthquake magnitude can be continuous updating.Meanwhile, the peak ground motion of velocity (PGV) can be estimate moreaccurate by taking the Pdparameter. Due to different epicenter distance ofdifferent stations, available information at each station will be different, then theprecision of magnitude results calculate at each station will be different too, weproposed4weighting approach to calculate the comprehensive earthquakemagnitude.
(3) According to the highly accuracy requirement of the EEW system, wecombined different characteristics of different parameters, and test the reliabilityof information through several different ways, such as signal to noise ration,compatibility of parameters, coordinate of parameters and reliability of locationresult etc. We collect several seismic data recorded by Fujian seismic monitoring network to test our method, results show that by taking this method, we caneliminate the interference information effectively, and then the dependability ofthe EEW system will be improved.
(4) Following the JMA instrumental seismic intensity method, combinedwith the main frequency range of building structure in our country (0.3Hz-3.0Hz),we proposed a complete set of instrumental seismic intensity calculation algorithm.The algorithm have a clear physic meaning, and made a reasonable consider ofamplitude, frequency and duration of ground motions, also it made full use of3components records. Based on this algorithm, we proposed an instrumentalseismic intensity standard, it reasonable inheritance and convergence of thecurrent Chinese seismic intensity standard. Take Wenchuan earthquake forexample, test results shows that the instrumental seismic intensity calculationresults consistant well with the seismic intensity field investigation results, whichfully indicated the applicability and reliability of our method.
(5) Take Fujian province for example, combined with seismic stations andseismic activities data in this region, we studied and determined the warninginformation release scheme, and the contour maps of time needed for each reportcan be obtain according to this scheme. Based on historical earthquakes data andthe potential seismic source areas in Fujian region, we make an evaluation of theefficiency of EEW system.
(6) By using seismic records of great Wenchuan earthquake, Chi-Chiearthquake, and the2011off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake in Japan, thefeasibility and applicability of our method was verified and analyzed.
引文
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