持续低温对沈阳地区水稻的影响及品种搭配决策研究
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摘要
针对当前气候变化的特点和水稻生产中对品种搭配决策服务的迫切需求,本研究在前人研究基础上构建了一个能反映当前气候变化和水稻冷害发生特点的低温冷害指标一持续低温指数(Consecutive cold day index, CCDI),系统研究了东北地区该指标的时空变化规律；以水稻品系9023、9035和9036为沈阳地区中熟、中晚熟和晚熟水稻的代表品种,评价了水稻生长发育关键期持续低温对沈阳地区不同熟期水稻生理生态及产量的影响；制定了沈阳地区不同熟期品种水稻的搭配策略。主要研究结果如下：
1.近45a,东北地区CCDI总体上呈降低趋势(p<0.01),且表现出明显的空间和季节差异性。春、夏、秋、冬季CCDI一致性降低是东北地区CCDI变化的主要特征。其中冬季CCDI降低幅度最大,夏季最小。年平均温度与各季节CCDI表现为负相关关系(p<0.01),温度升高的季节间差异大于CCDI降低的季节间差异,不同季节内CCDI降低对温度升高的敏感性不同,其敏感性依次为冬季>秋季>春季>夏季。进入21世纪以来,随着年平均温度的持续升高和年CCDI的持续降低,夏季平均温度与CCDI反而呈现出下降、夏季CCDI表现为升高的趋势。东北地区粮食产量的波动与CCDI显著相关,且纬度越低,CCDI增加造成粮食减产幅度越大。
2.水稻产量对持续低温的响应因品种的熟期类型、遭遇低温时所处的关键期及低温强度而不同。分蘖期遭遇持续低温可使各品种(熟期)水稻的产量增加,增产幅度随品种的熟期类型不同而不同,增产幅度从大到小依次为9023>9035>9036。拔节期比正常低3℃持续5d的低温可使9023、9035和9036水稻增产,增产幅度由大到小依次为9023>9035>9036,但低温强度达到5℃时,则会造成9035和9036减产,且9036减产幅度更大。开花期遭遇持续低温导致三个品种(熟期)水稻减产,减产幅度随低温强度增强而增大,三个品系减产幅度从大到小依次为9036>9035>9023。
3.分蘖期遭遇持续低温,虽可暂时使9023水稻分蘖受到抑制,但最终的成穗数增加是产量增加的主要原因；拔节期遭遇持续低温可增加9023水稻的分蘖数,迟发分蘖最终也可成熟形成产量是9023水稻拔节期遭遇持续低温后最终产量增加的主要原因；开花期的迟发分蘖植株与先发分蘖且已进入生殖生长阶段的植株养分竞争加剧,稻穗普遍偏小是开花期遭遇持续低温后9023水稻产量下降的主要原因。分蘖期和拔节期遭遇持续低温可显著降低9035水稻的空瘪率,虽一级枝梗和二级枝梗数有所下降,但二者的综合影响却可使产量增加；而开花期遭遇持续低温,颖花不孕引起的空率上升,加之一级、二级枝梗数的下降是导致其减产的主要因素。在各关键期遭遇持续低温,均可导致晚熟的9036水稻最终成穗数下降、二级枝梗颖花数上升,拔节期和开花期遭遇持续低温还可导致其不孕率上升,最终空率增加。分蘖期遭遇持续低温后各因素的综合作用使9036水稻产量略有上升；拔节期遭遇持续低温后其产量可能增加也可能下降,取决于低温强度；而开花期遭遇持续低温则导致产量大幅度下降。
4.持续低温对水稻光合过程的影响存在品种间及关键期间的差异。遭遇低温后可导致水稻的最大光合速率下降,下降的幅度由大到小依次为9036>9035>9023。遭遇低温后9023的表观量子效率增加,9035和9036水稻在生育期的早期遭遇低温会导致表观量子效率增加,后期则下降。在各个关键期,遭遇低温皆可导致9035和9036的表观初始羧化效率下降,而9023的初始羧化效率则在分蘖期下降,开花期增加。低温可使9023的光能利用率有所提高,而9035和9036则表现为下降趋势。遭遇持续低温后,光合系统Ⅱ羧化能力的不足是高光强下水稻光合速率降低的主要原因,持续低温对水稻光合系统Ⅰ的影响较小。低温对水稻光合能力的影响还主要体现在气孔导度的变化上,遭遇持续低温后9023水稻的气孔导度升高,而9036水稻的气孔导度则显著降低。综合各种因素,持续低温对9023水稻光合能力的影响不大,甚至适度的低温反而能使其光合能力提高,而持续低温则可导致9035和9036光合能力下降,且降幅随低温强度的增强而加大。随着品种熟期的延长,遭遇持续低温后水稻光合的恢复能力变弱,晚熟品种光合能力的下降且很难恢复可能是造成遭遇持续低温后9036水稻分蘖大量死亡,最终成穗数显著下降的主要原因。
5.沈阳地区未来在水稻分蘖期、拔节期、开花期发生持续低温的概率呈下降趋势,但仍存在着明显的年际、年代际波动,2013-2018年、2026年、2028-2029年、2032年CCDI仍处于高指数时期。预测未来中熟品种的产量呈下降趋势,中晚熟和晚熟品种产量呈上升趋势,随品种熟期的延长,产量的年际波动增大。在85%保证率下,确定了1951-2050年每5a为一个时间段的不同熟期水稻品种搭配比例。在接下来的10a中,沈阳地区将遭遇极端低温的频发期,中熟品种的栽种比例应适当增大,栽种的面积比例保持在57%至69%之间。中晚熟品种的栽种比例在2011-2030年间应逐步增大。2011-2025年,晚熟品种的栽种比例应控制在8%-16%之间,在2031-2050年间,其栽种比例应适当增大,从2031-2035时间段的11%增大到2046-2050年的51%。按照搭配决策布局不同熟期品种,水稻的产量会增加,2011-2015年间产量比现在增加0.96%,2026-2030年间增加1.36%,2041-2050年间单位面积产量可比2006-2010年的平均单位面积产量增加9.41%。
Based on characteristics of climate change and pressing need to variety arrangement in rice planting, a new index quantizing the effect of low temperature to rice damage, consecutive cold day index(CCDI) was constructed in this research, its tempo-spatial patterns were studied in Northeast China. The Effects of consecutive cold day on physiecology and yield of rice with different mature periods, marked middle, middle-late, late maturity varieties with9023,9035and9036, respectively, were evaluated and the decision-making of variety arrangement were tradeoffed with proper proportions in Shenyang region. The results are as follows:
1. In Northeast China, a substantial decrease in CCDI was found (p<0.01), the main variation of CCDI was that there were obvious fall in four seasons in recent45a with the largest drop in winter and smallest in summer. Negative relationships was found between annual mean temperature and seasonal CCDI (p<0.01). Sensitivities of CCDI to temperature were different in four seasons for difference in rise of mean temperature being larger than that in drop of CCDI in spring, summer, autumn and winter, descended order by winter>autumn>spring>summer. However, a slight drop in summer temperature and small rise in summer CCDI were found after2000with annual mean temperarue increased and annual CCDI decreased at the same time. The crop yield fluctuated with CCDI obviously with larger drop in crop yield in lower latitude region.
2. The dependences of rice yield on consecutive cold day varied with maturity period type, key stage and low temperature intensity. Experienced consecutive cold day (CCD) at tillering stage, the rice yields of three maturity period varieties showed rising tendency and increasing magnitude changed with maturity period type with largest in9023, smallest in9036. The rice yields increased in9023,9035and9036in low temperature condition that it was3℃lower than normal temperature in jointing stage, descended order by9023>9035>9036. However, when temperature was5℃lower than normal temperature, drop yields was found in9035and9036. The yield of three maturity period rice showed dropping after experienced CCD in blooming stage with larger drop in lower temperature and decreasing order by9036>9035>9023.
3. Experienced CCD in tillering stage, the tiller process was inhibited temporarily, however the ultimate stems and ripe panicles increased, it is the main reason that9023yield rosed. For in jointing stage, the increasing tillers after encountering low temperature can ripe at harvest stage, so the ultimate stems and ripe panicles increased and the yield showed the same tendency as did in tillering stage. But for meeting with CCD in blooming stage, the smaller panicles resulted in lower9023yield for the reason that the nutrient competition intensified between the new tillers being increased after blooming stage and the old tillers being at reproduction stage. The rates of empty and shriveled grain decreased obviously when9035variety rice had be exposed in low temperature at tillering or jointing stages, the final yields went up although the first and secondary branches on panicles decreased. But for meeting with CCD at blooming stage, another disadvantageous factor to yield, the rising empty grain induced by larger unpregnant spikelet caused9035yield decreasing. The final stems and panicles dropped and the spikelets on secondary branch went up if9036variety rice experienced low temperature at tillering, jointing or blooming stage, moreover, the empty grain proportion rosed when it encountered CCD at jointing or blooming stage. Considering all factors, when9036variety rice encountered low temperature at different key stages, the yield showed rising tendency at tillering stage, rising tendency in3℃and dropping tendency in5℃lower than normal temperature at jointing stage, dramatically decreasing tendency at blooming stage.
4. The dependences of photosynthesis process on CCD varied with rice varieties and key stages. The maximum photosynthesis rate decreased by descended order9036>9035>9023when three maturity period rices experienced low temperature.9023apparent photosynthesis quantum efficiencies increased after being exposed to low temperature at all key stages, whereas those of9035and9036increased at early stages and decreased at late stages.9035and9036apparent photosynthesis carboxylation efficiencies decreased after being exposed to low temperature at all key stages, however, that of9023decreased at tillering stage and decreased at blooming stage. After consecutive clod day. light use efficiencies rosed in9023, dropped in9035and9036; rising stomatal conductance was found in9023, however decreasing pattern showed in9036. Low temperature had little effects on photosynthesis system Ⅰ, however it can prohibited severely carboxylation ability of photosynthesis system Ⅱ, which induced photosynthesis rate declined dramatically at high light intensity. Generally speaking, CCD had little effect on9023photosynthesis process, even moderate low temperature could enhance its photosynthesis ability, and however it could reduce photosynthesis ability of9035and9036characterized by larger dropping photosynthesis ability in lower temperature. The more rice maturity period longer, was the more uneasily to be recovered in dropping photosynthesis ability, which might be the main reason that the9036tillers of late maturity period variety wilted in large quantity and its yield decreased dramatically after it experienced low temperature at key stages.
5. The probabilities of CCDI at tillering, jointing and blooming stages will decrease in Shenyang region in the future characterized by inter-and decadal-annual variations markedly, with high CCDI in2013-2018,2026,2028-2029,2032. Predicted middle maturity period variety rice yield will drop, whereas middle-late and late mature rice will have increasing yields in the next about40years. Mixing ratio of three varieties of rice with different mature stage expressed on the85%total yield guarantee rate in this study every five years during1951to2050. In the next10years, CCD will occurred frequently, so the cultivated area proportion of middle maturity period variety rice should increase to57%-69%. The proportion of middle-late maturity period variety rice should enlarge during2011-2030gradually. The appropriate proportion of late maturity period variety rice should be between8%and16%during2011-2025, and increase from11%in2031-2035to51%in the stage of2046-2050. Based on above different maturity period variety rice arrangement, the rice yield would increase, with0.96%in2011-2015,1.36%in2026-2030and9.41%in2041-2050higher than average yield in2006-2010.
1.近45a,东北地区CCDI总体上呈降低趋势(p<0.01),且表现出明显的空间和季节差异性。春、夏、秋、冬季CCDI一致性降低是东北地区CCDI变化的主要特征。其中冬季CCDI降低幅度最大,夏季最小。年平均温度与各季节CCDI表现为负相关关系(p<0.01),温度升高的季节间差异大于CCDI降低的季节间差异,不同季节内CCDI降低对温度升高的敏感性不同,其敏感性依次为冬季>秋季>春季>夏季。进入21世纪以来,随着年平均温度的持续升高和年CCDI的持续降低,夏季平均温度与CCDI反而呈现出下降、夏季CCDI表现为升高的趋势。东北地区粮食产量的波动与CCDI显著相关,且纬度越低,CCDI增加造成粮食减产幅度越大。
2.水稻产量对持续低温的响应因品种的熟期类型、遭遇低温时所处的关键期及低温强度而不同。分蘖期遭遇持续低温可使各品种(熟期)水稻的产量增加,增产幅度随品种的熟期类型不同而不同,增产幅度从大到小依次为9023>9035>9036。拔节期比正常低3℃持续5d的低温可使9023、9035和9036水稻增产,增产幅度由大到小依次为9023>9035>9036,但低温强度达到5℃时,则会造成9035和9036减产,且9036减产幅度更大。开花期遭遇持续低温导致三个品种(熟期)水稻减产,减产幅度随低温强度增强而增大,三个品系减产幅度从大到小依次为9036>9035>9023。
3.分蘖期遭遇持续低温,虽可暂时使9023水稻分蘖受到抑制,但最终的成穗数增加是产量增加的主要原因；拔节期遭遇持续低温可增加9023水稻的分蘖数,迟发分蘖最终也可成熟形成产量是9023水稻拔节期遭遇持续低温后最终产量增加的主要原因；开花期的迟发分蘖植株与先发分蘖且已进入生殖生长阶段的植株养分竞争加剧,稻穗普遍偏小是开花期遭遇持续低温后9023水稻产量下降的主要原因。分蘖期和拔节期遭遇持续低温可显著降低9035水稻的空瘪率,虽一级枝梗和二级枝梗数有所下降,但二者的综合影响却可使产量增加；而开花期遭遇持续低温,颖花不孕引起的空率上升,加之一级、二级枝梗数的下降是导致其减产的主要因素。在各关键期遭遇持续低温,均可导致晚熟的9036水稻最终成穗数下降、二级枝梗颖花数上升,拔节期和开花期遭遇持续低温还可导致其不孕率上升,最终空率增加。分蘖期遭遇持续低温后各因素的综合作用使9036水稻产量略有上升；拔节期遭遇持续低温后其产量可能增加也可能下降,取决于低温强度；而开花期遭遇持续低温则导致产量大幅度下降。
4.持续低温对水稻光合过程的影响存在品种间及关键期间的差异。遭遇低温后可导致水稻的最大光合速率下降,下降的幅度由大到小依次为9036>9035>9023。遭遇低温后9023的表观量子效率增加,9035和9036水稻在生育期的早期遭遇低温会导致表观量子效率增加,后期则下降。在各个关键期,遭遇低温皆可导致9035和9036的表观初始羧化效率下降,而9023的初始羧化效率则在分蘖期下降,开花期增加。低温可使9023的光能利用率有所提高,而9035和9036则表现为下降趋势。遭遇持续低温后,光合系统Ⅱ羧化能力的不足是高光强下水稻光合速率降低的主要原因,持续低温对水稻光合系统Ⅰ的影响较小。低温对水稻光合能力的影响还主要体现在气孔导度的变化上,遭遇持续低温后9023水稻的气孔导度升高,而9036水稻的气孔导度则显著降低。综合各种因素,持续低温对9023水稻光合能力的影响不大,甚至适度的低温反而能使其光合能力提高,而持续低温则可导致9035和9036光合能力下降,且降幅随低温强度的增强而加大。随着品种熟期的延长,遭遇持续低温后水稻光合的恢复能力变弱,晚熟品种光合能力的下降且很难恢复可能是造成遭遇持续低温后9036水稻分蘖大量死亡,最终成穗数显著下降的主要原因。
5.沈阳地区未来在水稻分蘖期、拔节期、开花期发生持续低温的概率呈下降趋势,但仍存在着明显的年际、年代际波动,2013-2018年、2026年、2028-2029年、2032年CCDI仍处于高指数时期。预测未来中熟品种的产量呈下降趋势,中晚熟和晚熟品种产量呈上升趋势,随品种熟期的延长,产量的年际波动增大。在85%保证率下,确定了1951-2050年每5a为一个时间段的不同熟期水稻品种搭配比例。在接下来的10a中,沈阳地区将遭遇极端低温的频发期,中熟品种的栽种比例应适当增大,栽种的面积比例保持在57%至69%之间。中晚熟品种的栽种比例在2011-2030年间应逐步增大。2011-2025年,晚熟品种的栽种比例应控制在8%-16%之间,在2031-2050年间,其栽种比例应适当增大,从2031-2035时间段的11%增大到2046-2050年的51%。按照搭配决策布局不同熟期品种,水稻的产量会增加,2011-2015年间产量比现在增加0.96%,2026-2030年间增加1.36%,2041-2050年间单位面积产量可比2006-2010年的平均单位面积产量增加9.41%。
Based on characteristics of climate change and pressing need to variety arrangement in rice planting, a new index quantizing the effect of low temperature to rice damage, consecutive cold day index(CCDI) was constructed in this research, its tempo-spatial patterns were studied in Northeast China. The Effects of consecutive cold day on physiecology and yield of rice with different mature periods, marked middle, middle-late, late maturity varieties with9023,9035and9036, respectively, were evaluated and the decision-making of variety arrangement were tradeoffed with proper proportions in Shenyang region. The results are as follows:
1. In Northeast China, a substantial decrease in CCDI was found (p<0.01), the main variation of CCDI was that there were obvious fall in four seasons in recent45a with the largest drop in winter and smallest in summer. Negative relationships was found between annual mean temperature and seasonal CCDI (p<0.01). Sensitivities of CCDI to temperature were different in four seasons for difference in rise of mean temperature being larger than that in drop of CCDI in spring, summer, autumn and winter, descended order by winter>autumn>spring>summer. However, a slight drop in summer temperature and small rise in summer CCDI were found after2000with annual mean temperarue increased and annual CCDI decreased at the same time. The crop yield fluctuated with CCDI obviously with larger drop in crop yield in lower latitude region.
2. The dependences of rice yield on consecutive cold day varied with maturity period type, key stage and low temperature intensity. Experienced consecutive cold day (CCD) at tillering stage, the rice yields of three maturity period varieties showed rising tendency and increasing magnitude changed with maturity period type with largest in9023, smallest in9036. The rice yields increased in9023,9035and9036in low temperature condition that it was3℃lower than normal temperature in jointing stage, descended order by9023>9035>9036. However, when temperature was5℃lower than normal temperature, drop yields was found in9035and9036. The yield of three maturity period rice showed dropping after experienced CCD in blooming stage with larger drop in lower temperature and decreasing order by9036>9035>9023.
3. Experienced CCD in tillering stage, the tiller process was inhibited temporarily, however the ultimate stems and ripe panicles increased, it is the main reason that9023yield rosed. For in jointing stage, the increasing tillers after encountering low temperature can ripe at harvest stage, so the ultimate stems and ripe panicles increased and the yield showed the same tendency as did in tillering stage. But for meeting with CCD in blooming stage, the smaller panicles resulted in lower9023yield for the reason that the nutrient competition intensified between the new tillers being increased after blooming stage and the old tillers being at reproduction stage. The rates of empty and shriveled grain decreased obviously when9035variety rice had be exposed in low temperature at tillering or jointing stages, the final yields went up although the first and secondary branches on panicles decreased. But for meeting with CCD at blooming stage, another disadvantageous factor to yield, the rising empty grain induced by larger unpregnant spikelet caused9035yield decreasing. The final stems and panicles dropped and the spikelets on secondary branch went up if9036variety rice experienced low temperature at tillering, jointing or blooming stage, moreover, the empty grain proportion rosed when it encountered CCD at jointing or blooming stage. Considering all factors, when9036variety rice encountered low temperature at different key stages, the yield showed rising tendency at tillering stage, rising tendency in3℃and dropping tendency in5℃lower than normal temperature at jointing stage, dramatically decreasing tendency at blooming stage.
4. The dependences of photosynthesis process on CCD varied with rice varieties and key stages. The maximum photosynthesis rate decreased by descended order9036>9035>9023when three maturity period rices experienced low temperature.9023apparent photosynthesis quantum efficiencies increased after being exposed to low temperature at all key stages, whereas those of9035and9036increased at early stages and decreased at late stages.9035and9036apparent photosynthesis carboxylation efficiencies decreased after being exposed to low temperature at all key stages, however, that of9023decreased at tillering stage and decreased at blooming stage. After consecutive clod day. light use efficiencies rosed in9023, dropped in9035and9036; rising stomatal conductance was found in9023, however decreasing pattern showed in9036. Low temperature had little effects on photosynthesis system Ⅰ, however it can prohibited severely carboxylation ability of photosynthesis system Ⅱ, which induced photosynthesis rate declined dramatically at high light intensity. Generally speaking, CCD had little effect on9023photosynthesis process, even moderate low temperature could enhance its photosynthesis ability, and however it could reduce photosynthesis ability of9035and9036characterized by larger dropping photosynthesis ability in lower temperature. The more rice maturity period longer, was the more uneasily to be recovered in dropping photosynthesis ability, which might be the main reason that the9036tillers of late maturity period variety wilted in large quantity and its yield decreased dramatically after it experienced low temperature at key stages.
5. The probabilities of CCDI at tillering, jointing and blooming stages will decrease in Shenyang region in the future characterized by inter-and decadal-annual variations markedly, with high CCDI in2013-2018,2026,2028-2029,2032. Predicted middle maturity period variety rice yield will drop, whereas middle-late and late mature rice will have increasing yields in the next about40years. Mixing ratio of three varieties of rice with different mature stage expressed on the85%total yield guarantee rate in this study every five years during1951to2050. In the next10years, CCD will occurred frequently, so the cultivated area proportion of middle maturity period variety rice should increase to57%-69%. The proportion of middle-late maturity period variety rice should enlarge during2011-2030gradually. The appropriate proportion of late maturity period variety rice should be between8%and16%during2011-2025, and increase from11%in2031-2035to51%in the stage of2046-2050. Based on above different maturity period variety rice arrangement, the rice yield would increase, with0.96%in2011-2015,1.36%in2026-2030and9.41%in2041-2050higher than average yield in2006-2010.
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