基于绿色经济的风火电联合运营规划及效益评价研究
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摘要
绿色发展战略是我国在金融危机后的经济发展和资源短缺、环境污染的双重压力下确立的基本发展战略。电力系统也确立了构建和谐电力系统的发展规划。火力发电是我国电源结构的主体,风力发电是我国最有发展潜力的清洁电源,风火电联合运营是我国现阶段常见的传统能源和清洁电源联合运营的模式,风火电联合运营的推广,有利于促进经济与环境的协调发展。
对基于绿色经济的风火电联合运营规划及效益评价进行研究,首先要明确绿色经济理论,进行理论研究和现状分析,然后对基于绿色经济的风火电联合运营规划、综合效益评价的理论体系和规划模型和评价方法进行研究,最后通过实证分析验证,并给出相应的对策建议。
第一,本文进行了论文基础研究,对绿色经济含义进行了论述,并介绍了研究的相关理论,为后续研究奠定了理论基础；然后对我国的发电能源、电源结构、风力发电、火力发电现状、风火电联合运营现状进行了系统分析,提出了我国电源结构、新能源发展、风火电联合运营亟待解决的问题,奠定了后续研究的现实基础。
第二,本文对风火电联合运营规划的含义、准则、基本思路进行了阐述,对传统风火电联合运营模式的特征和优势劣势进行了分析,提出了基于绿色经济的风火电联合运营规划模式,并对其影响因素和运营特征进行了分析；然后在对风电消纳影响因素分析的基础上,提出了基于风电集群效益和预测误差修正的完全成本约束电网消纳能力计算模型,对负荷高峰期和负荷低谷期电网的风电消纳能力进行了计算；在此基础上,建立了基于绿色经济的多目标成本约束的风火电联合运营规划模型。
第三,本文建立了基于绿色经济的风火电联合运营综合效益评价体系。在传统综合效益评价体系基础上,设计了新评价指标,建立了包含传统经济效益、社会效益、环境效益、安全效益和绿色经济效益的评级指标体系。改进了模糊综合评价模型,采用价值权重和影响权重相结合的方式,在分析权重的时候,考虑了负荷高峰和负荷低谷的情景；改进了突变级数综合评价模型。采用余弦模型计算组合权重,构建了基于情景组合权重的模糊综合评价和改进的突变级数评价的组合评价模型组合评价模型,用以对基于绿色经济的风火电联合运营综合效益进行评价。
第四,对本文建立的规划模型和评价方法进行了实证分析,对J省2011年的风火电联合运营进行了规划,将规划结果与实际运营数据进行了对比分析；然后以规划结果与实际运营数据为基础对风火电联合运营综合效益进行了评价,将评价结果进行了对比分析。在实证分析的基础上提出了提高我国风火电联合运营综合效益的对策建议。
本文的规划模型、评价方法和实证研究,对我国传统电源和清洁电源联合运营的发展具有理论与实践指导借鉴意义。
Under the double pressure of the economic development and resource shortage after the global financial crisis and environment pollution, green development strategy is established as the basic development strategy in China. The construction of harmonious development program is also proposed in power system. Currently, coal-thermal power is still the main part of the power source structure in China, and wind power becoming the most potential clean power resource. Therefore, joint operation between wind power and thermal power is a common operation mode of the traditional energy with clean energy at present in China. The development of this joint operation mode can be helpful to promote the harmonious development of the economy and environment.
In this paper, the programming and benefit evaluation of wind&thermal joint operation based on green economy is explored.. The conception of green economy theory is introduced at first, as well as the relative theory research and which laid the foundation of the further research.. Then we develop the theory system of the programming and evaluation, besides, according to the theory above, the programming model is established and the evaluation method is studied. At last, an experimental analysis is conducted, followed by corresponding suggestions.
At the beginning, the basic research of this paper is presented. The concept of the green economy and the related theories are introduced, which is the theoretical foundation for the follow-up studies. It is followed by the systemic analysis of the status of the power energy, power structure, wind power and thermal power in China. According to the analysis, there is an urgent demand to solve the problems on the programming of power structure, the development of renewable energy and the joint operation of wind power and thermal power.The analysis mentioned above is the important basis of the subsequent research.
Secondly, the concept, rules and basic idea of joint operation between wind power and thermal power are illustrated in this paper. After the analysis of the characteristics and the advantages and disadvantages of the traditional joint operation between wind power and thermal power mode, a novel mode based on the green economy is established. Besides, the influence factors and operation characteristics of this new mode are also discussed. Though analyzing the influence factors of wind power absorption, the computation model for the absorption capacity of power grid constrained by full cost of the benefit of the wind power clustering and prediction error modification method is present. While, the absorption capacities of the grid during the peak load period and the valley load period are calculated respectively. Moreover, a scale model is built for joint operation between wind power and thermal power with the green economic multi-object cost constrains.
In order to evaluate the comprehensive benefit of joint operation between wind power and thermal powers, an evaluation system under the concept of green economy is established in this paper. On the basis of conventional comprehensive benefit evaluation system, the novel evaluation system includes economic benefits, social benefits, environmental benefits, safety benefits and green economic benefits. Improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is developed for the evaluation. It combines the value weight and the influence weight. Both peak load period and valley load period are considered in the weight analysis. According to the improved mutation progression theory, which helps improve the model. Cosine model is used to calculate the combination weight, then a combination evaluation model is established for the analysis.
At last, to verify the effectiveness of the programming and evaluation models proposed in this paper, Province J is taken as the case study in this paper. We make a plan fot the joint operation between wind power and thermal power in Province J for2011. The results from the new model are compared with the practical operation data. Furthermore, both the planning results and the practical situation are adopted to evaluate the comprehensive benefit of joint operation between wind power and thermal power. And then the evaluation results are compared and discussed. Based on the above experiment, relative suggestions and policies are proposed to improve the comprehensive benefit of joint operation between wind power and thermal power in China.
All in all,the proposed programming model and evaluation system, as well as the empirical research conducted in this paper will be of the theory and practice guidance for the joint operation of traditional power source and clean power energy.
对基于绿色经济的风火电联合运营规划及效益评价进行研究,首先要明确绿色经济理论,进行理论研究和现状分析,然后对基于绿色经济的风火电联合运营规划、综合效益评价的理论体系和规划模型和评价方法进行研究,最后通过实证分析验证,并给出相应的对策建议。
第一,本文进行了论文基础研究,对绿色经济含义进行了论述,并介绍了研究的相关理论,为后续研究奠定了理论基础；然后对我国的发电能源、电源结构、风力发电、火力发电现状、风火电联合运营现状进行了系统分析,提出了我国电源结构、新能源发展、风火电联合运营亟待解决的问题,奠定了后续研究的现实基础。
第二,本文对风火电联合运营规划的含义、准则、基本思路进行了阐述,对传统风火电联合运营模式的特征和优势劣势进行了分析,提出了基于绿色经济的风火电联合运营规划模式,并对其影响因素和运营特征进行了分析；然后在对风电消纳影响因素分析的基础上,提出了基于风电集群效益和预测误差修正的完全成本约束电网消纳能力计算模型,对负荷高峰期和负荷低谷期电网的风电消纳能力进行了计算；在此基础上,建立了基于绿色经济的多目标成本约束的风火电联合运营规划模型。
第三,本文建立了基于绿色经济的风火电联合运营综合效益评价体系。在传统综合效益评价体系基础上,设计了新评价指标,建立了包含传统经济效益、社会效益、环境效益、安全效益和绿色经济效益的评级指标体系。改进了模糊综合评价模型,采用价值权重和影响权重相结合的方式,在分析权重的时候,考虑了负荷高峰和负荷低谷的情景；改进了突变级数综合评价模型。采用余弦模型计算组合权重,构建了基于情景组合权重的模糊综合评价和改进的突变级数评价的组合评价模型组合评价模型,用以对基于绿色经济的风火电联合运营综合效益进行评价。
第四,对本文建立的规划模型和评价方法进行了实证分析,对J省2011年的风火电联合运营进行了规划,将规划结果与实际运营数据进行了对比分析；然后以规划结果与实际运营数据为基础对风火电联合运营综合效益进行了评价,将评价结果进行了对比分析。在实证分析的基础上提出了提高我国风火电联合运营综合效益的对策建议。
本文的规划模型、评价方法和实证研究,对我国传统电源和清洁电源联合运营的发展具有理论与实践指导借鉴意义。
Under the double pressure of the economic development and resource shortage after the global financial crisis and environment pollution, green development strategy is established as the basic development strategy in China. The construction of harmonious development program is also proposed in power system. Currently, coal-thermal power is still the main part of the power source structure in China, and wind power becoming the most potential clean power resource. Therefore, joint operation between wind power and thermal power is a common operation mode of the traditional energy with clean energy at present in China. The development of this joint operation mode can be helpful to promote the harmonious development of the economy and environment.
In this paper, the programming and benefit evaluation of wind&thermal joint operation based on green economy is explored.. The conception of green economy theory is introduced at first, as well as the relative theory research and which laid the foundation of the further research.. Then we develop the theory system of the programming and evaluation, besides, according to the theory above, the programming model is established and the evaluation method is studied. At last, an experimental analysis is conducted, followed by corresponding suggestions.
At the beginning, the basic research of this paper is presented. The concept of the green economy and the related theories are introduced, which is the theoretical foundation for the follow-up studies. It is followed by the systemic analysis of the status of the power energy, power structure, wind power and thermal power in China. According to the analysis, there is an urgent demand to solve the problems on the programming of power structure, the development of renewable energy and the joint operation of wind power and thermal power.The analysis mentioned above is the important basis of the subsequent research.
Secondly, the concept, rules and basic idea of joint operation between wind power and thermal power are illustrated in this paper. After the analysis of the characteristics and the advantages and disadvantages of the traditional joint operation between wind power and thermal power mode, a novel mode based on the green economy is established. Besides, the influence factors and operation characteristics of this new mode are also discussed. Though analyzing the influence factors of wind power absorption, the computation model for the absorption capacity of power grid constrained by full cost of the benefit of the wind power clustering and prediction error modification method is present. While, the absorption capacities of the grid during the peak load period and the valley load period are calculated respectively. Moreover, a scale model is built for joint operation between wind power and thermal power with the green economic multi-object cost constrains.
In order to evaluate the comprehensive benefit of joint operation between wind power and thermal powers, an evaluation system under the concept of green economy is established in this paper. On the basis of conventional comprehensive benefit evaluation system, the novel evaluation system includes economic benefits, social benefits, environmental benefits, safety benefits and green economic benefits. Improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is developed for the evaluation. It combines the value weight and the influence weight. Both peak load period and valley load period are considered in the weight analysis. According to the improved mutation progression theory, which helps improve the model. Cosine model is used to calculate the combination weight, then a combination evaluation model is established for the analysis.
At last, to verify the effectiveness of the programming and evaluation models proposed in this paper, Province J is taken as the case study in this paper. We make a plan fot the joint operation between wind power and thermal power in Province J for2011. The results from the new model are compared with the practical operation data. Furthermore, both the planning results and the practical situation are adopted to evaluate the comprehensive benefit of joint operation between wind power and thermal power. And then the evaluation results are compared and discussed. Based on the above experiment, relative suggestions and policies are proposed to improve the comprehensive benefit of joint operation between wind power and thermal power in China.
All in all,the proposed programming model and evaluation system, as well as the empirical research conducted in this paper will be of the theory and practice guidance for the joint operation of traditional power source and clean power energy.
引文
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