基于复杂系统的电力市场有效竞争研究
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摘要
虽然从上世纪70年代开始的电力市场化改革,各国的模式不尽相同,但改革目标基本是一致的,即“提高效率、降低成本、优化资源配置”。然而改革的实践暴露出了一系列的问题,引发了学者及业界人士的普遍关注,热点问题之一是改革是否实现了预期目标。因此,如何评价“电力市场效率”、哪些因素是影响“电力市场效率”的主要因素以及如何进一步改进电力市场设计方案成为学者们研究的焦点。
对“电力市场效率”评价的难点在于,“电力市场效率”的内涵是什么,到底什么样的运营结果是有效率的,哪些因素影响了“电力市场效率”。电力市场作为一种经济系统,是一个包含多因素、多层次,涉及多环节的复杂系统,也因此具有了复杂系统的基本特征和性质,对“电力市场效率”的研究必须遵守电力市场复杂系统的特性和演化规律。
针对这些问题,论文在提出“电力市场有效竞争”定义的基础上,基于复杂系统理论构建了电力市场有效竞争影响因素指标体系,建立了电力市场有效竞争协同演化模型,分析了电力市场各子系统的有效竞争问题。论文的主要创新点包括：在分析电力市场复杂系统的特性及其演化规律的基础上,提出了“电力市场有效竞争”的定义,代替“电力市场效率”进行电力市场效率问题的研究；基于复杂系统理论,构建了电力市场有效竞争影响因素指标体系；建立了电力市场有效竞争协同演化模型；研究了电力市场各子系统的有效竞争问题；对南方电力市场的有效竞争进行了实证分析。
论文主要包括七个部分内容：
第一,对复杂系统理论及其研究方法进行了分析。总结了复杂系统的特性,阐述了基于耗散结构和自组织临界性的复杂系统演化规律,综合分析了复杂系统的研究方法,并解释了协同学理论、突变理论适用于本文研究的原因。
第二,对电力市场复杂特性进行了研究。总结了电力市场三个基本的复杂特性,自组织性、开放性和涌现性,并运用分形理论验证了电力市场的自相似性；构建了电力市场复杂系统的状态空间,包括系统边界、系统目标、系统环境和系统结构等四个方面；分析了电力市场的耗散结构特性及其在耗散结构条件下发生的演化；分析了电力市场自组织临界性演化规律,并运用幂律分布理论验证了这一规律。
第三,对电力市场有效竞争及其影响因素进行了研究。分析了有效竞争基本理论,探讨了电力市场有效竞争问题,提出了基于“资源有效利用”和“激励相容”的“电力市场有效竞争”定义；基于外部演化动力和内部演化动力,构建了电力市场有效竞争影响因素的指标体系,为电力市场协同演化模型及序参量求解奠定基础。
第四,对电力市场协同演化模型及其序参量求解方法进行了研究。分析了系统演化的基本原理,对比了三种典型的演化方程,提出了改进Langevin的电力市场运营协同演化模型；分析了序参量原理,对比了四种求解序参量的方法,提出了灰色关联和绝热消去相结合的“多因素降维”的序参量识别方法。
第五,对电力市场有效竞争状态识别机理进行了研究。分析了基于单序参量和势函数的电力市场有效竞争状态识别规则,分析了基于多序参量和Hessen矩阵的电力市场有效竞争状态识别规则。
第六,基于SCP理论、最优反应动态模型和机制设计理论,从市场结构、市场行为和市场交易三个子系统的角度,对电力市场有效竞争问题进行了深入研究。提出了发电市场结构子系统有效竞争评价标准；研究了发电商最优反应动态机理；研究了现货市场发电商投机报价行为及其监管机制的设计。
第七,对南方电力市场的有效竞争状态进行了实证分析。分析了南方电力市场有效竞争状态识别指标的变化趋势；运用“多因素降维”确定了电力市场协同演化的序参量；对南方电力市场有效竞争状态进行了分析；对南方电力市场各子系统的有效竞争问题进行了研究。
研究成果对“电力市场效率”的研究提供了新的思路和理论依据,对电力市场改革设计提供了理论支持。
Although the ways of reforming the electric power market, which started in1970s, differed from one country to another, the basic goal is all the same, and that is "improve the efficiency, lower the cost and optimize the resource". However, as the reform was practiced, problems began to surface and caused concerns among scholars and industry participators. One of the hot issues is whether the reform can achieve the expected goal. With those concerns, researches as how to evaluate "the efficiency of electric power market", what factors are affecting "the efficiency of electric power market", and how to improve the design of the electric power market become the focus of scholars'studies.
It is hard to assess "the efficiency of electric power market", because it is hard to define what "the efficiency of electric power market" is, also it is hard to find out what kind of operation result is efficient and which factors are really and it is difficult to figure out what kind of operation result is efficient or what factors are affecting "the efficiency of electric power market". Electric power market, as an economic system, is a complex system contented with multiple factors, levels and layers, which is why it has all the same features and qualities as the complex system. If we do want to research "the efficiency of electric power market", then we have to follow the evolution law of the complex system and also its features.
Focusing on those topics, this paper defined what "the efficiency of electric power market" is in the first place, and then based on this definition, established the index system to reflect those influencing factors of the effective competition. Moreover, this paper constructed an evaluation model toward the effective competition on electric market, so that it analyzed the effective competition among the electric market's subsystems. There are some main innovations in this paper: firstly, based on the analysis of the characteristics and evolution law of the electric power market complex system, this paper defined what "the effective competition of electric power market" is, replaced the concept of "the efficiency of electric power market", and preceded the research from the perspective of the evaluation of the efficiency of electric power market; secondly, based on the complex system theory, this paper established the index system to reflect those influencing factors of the effective competition; thirdly, this paper constructed an dynamic evaluation model toward the effective competition on electric market; fourthly, this paper studied the effective competition among the subsystems of the electric power market; finally, this paper made an empirical analysis of the effective competition in the electric power market of South China.
This paper consisted of seven sections:
In the first section, this paper introduced the complex system theory and analyzed the research methods. It summed up the characteristics of the complex system and elaborated the evolution law which based on its dissipative structure and self-organization criticality. In addition, it considered all the research methods of complex system and explained why the synergetics, the catastrophe theory are able to apply here.
In the second section, this paper studied the complex characteristics of the electric power market. This section summed up the self-organization, openness and emergent property as the three basic complex characteristics and used fractal theory to testify the emergent property of the electric power market; besides, it constructed the state space of the electric power market complex system, including system boundary, target, environment and structure; then it analyzed the electric power market's dissipative structure property and the evolution under this condition; at last, this section analyzed the self-organized criticality evolution law and testified it with the power law theory.
In the third section, this paper made some research toward the effective competition in electric power market. It analyzed the effective competition's basic theory and discussed the effective competition in electric power market, bringing up "effective competition in electric power market" under the concepts of "fair-use resource" and "compatible incentive"; also, based on the outside and inside driving force of evolution, this section established the index system to reflect those influencing factors of the effective competition, laid a foundation to construct the synergy evolution model for the electricity market and calculate the order parameter.
In the fourth section, this paper studied how to construct the synergy evolution model for the electricity market and how to calculate the order parameter. After analyzed the fundamental principle of phylogeny, this section compared three classic evolution equations and constructed the synergy evolution model that reflected the operation in electric power market on the basis of Langevin equation; also, after analyzed the principle of order parameter and compared four calculation methods, it come up with the recognition method which was called "reduction of the multi-factor's dimension" on the basis of the adiabatic elimination method.
In the fifth section, this paper studied the mechanism of recognizing effective competition state in electric power market. It studied the rules of recognizing effective competition state in electric power market on the basis of single order parameter and potential function; and also it analyzed the recognition rules again based on the multiple order parameter and Hessen matrix.
In the sixth section, upon the SCP theory, the dynamic model of optimal reaction and the mechanism design theory, this paper in-depth studied the effective competition in electric power market from the cutting points of the three subsystem: market structure, behavior and trade. In this section, it came up with the effective competition evaluation criterion of one subsystem, the power generation market structure; it studied the generators' dynamic mechanism of optimal reaction; also it studied the generators'speculative bidding behavior and the regulation design in the spot market.
In the seventh section, this paper empirically analyzed the effective competition state in the electric power market of South China. It analyzed the tendency of the recognition index system of the effective competition in the electric power market of South China; also it used the "reduction of the multi-factor's dimension" method to identify the order parameters of synergy evolution; moreover, it analyzed the effective competition state of the South China electric power market; and it studied the effective competition of the subsystem in the electric power market of South China.
The research of this paper provided new ideas and theoretical basis for the further study of "the efficiency of electric power market", and also theoretically supported the solution design for the electric power market reform.
对“电力市场效率”评价的难点在于,“电力市场效率”的内涵是什么,到底什么样的运营结果是有效率的,哪些因素影响了“电力市场效率”。电力市场作为一种经济系统,是一个包含多因素、多层次,涉及多环节的复杂系统,也因此具有了复杂系统的基本特征和性质,对“电力市场效率”的研究必须遵守电力市场复杂系统的特性和演化规律。
针对这些问题,论文在提出“电力市场有效竞争”定义的基础上,基于复杂系统理论构建了电力市场有效竞争影响因素指标体系,建立了电力市场有效竞争协同演化模型,分析了电力市场各子系统的有效竞争问题。论文的主要创新点包括：在分析电力市场复杂系统的特性及其演化规律的基础上,提出了“电力市场有效竞争”的定义,代替“电力市场效率”进行电力市场效率问题的研究；基于复杂系统理论,构建了电力市场有效竞争影响因素指标体系；建立了电力市场有效竞争协同演化模型；研究了电力市场各子系统的有效竞争问题；对南方电力市场的有效竞争进行了实证分析。
论文主要包括七个部分内容：
第一,对复杂系统理论及其研究方法进行了分析。总结了复杂系统的特性,阐述了基于耗散结构和自组织临界性的复杂系统演化规律,综合分析了复杂系统的研究方法,并解释了协同学理论、突变理论适用于本文研究的原因。
第二,对电力市场复杂特性进行了研究。总结了电力市场三个基本的复杂特性,自组织性、开放性和涌现性,并运用分形理论验证了电力市场的自相似性；构建了电力市场复杂系统的状态空间,包括系统边界、系统目标、系统环境和系统结构等四个方面；分析了电力市场的耗散结构特性及其在耗散结构条件下发生的演化；分析了电力市场自组织临界性演化规律,并运用幂律分布理论验证了这一规律。
第三,对电力市场有效竞争及其影响因素进行了研究。分析了有效竞争基本理论,探讨了电力市场有效竞争问题,提出了基于“资源有效利用”和“激励相容”的“电力市场有效竞争”定义；基于外部演化动力和内部演化动力,构建了电力市场有效竞争影响因素的指标体系,为电力市场协同演化模型及序参量求解奠定基础。
第四,对电力市场协同演化模型及其序参量求解方法进行了研究。分析了系统演化的基本原理,对比了三种典型的演化方程,提出了改进Langevin的电力市场运营协同演化模型；分析了序参量原理,对比了四种求解序参量的方法,提出了灰色关联和绝热消去相结合的“多因素降维”的序参量识别方法。
第五,对电力市场有效竞争状态识别机理进行了研究。分析了基于单序参量和势函数的电力市场有效竞争状态识别规则,分析了基于多序参量和Hessen矩阵的电力市场有效竞争状态识别规则。
第六,基于SCP理论、最优反应动态模型和机制设计理论,从市场结构、市场行为和市场交易三个子系统的角度,对电力市场有效竞争问题进行了深入研究。提出了发电市场结构子系统有效竞争评价标准；研究了发电商最优反应动态机理；研究了现货市场发电商投机报价行为及其监管机制的设计。
第七,对南方电力市场的有效竞争状态进行了实证分析。分析了南方电力市场有效竞争状态识别指标的变化趋势；运用“多因素降维”确定了电力市场协同演化的序参量；对南方电力市场有效竞争状态进行了分析；对南方电力市场各子系统的有效竞争问题进行了研究。
研究成果对“电力市场效率”的研究提供了新的思路和理论依据,对电力市场改革设计提供了理论支持。
Although the ways of reforming the electric power market, which started in1970s, differed from one country to another, the basic goal is all the same, and that is "improve the efficiency, lower the cost and optimize the resource". However, as the reform was practiced, problems began to surface and caused concerns among scholars and industry participators. One of the hot issues is whether the reform can achieve the expected goal. With those concerns, researches as how to evaluate "the efficiency of electric power market", what factors are affecting "the efficiency of electric power market", and how to improve the design of the electric power market become the focus of scholars'studies.
It is hard to assess "the efficiency of electric power market", because it is hard to define what "the efficiency of electric power market" is, also it is hard to find out what kind of operation result is efficient and which factors are really and it is difficult to figure out what kind of operation result is efficient or what factors are affecting "the efficiency of electric power market". Electric power market, as an economic system, is a complex system contented with multiple factors, levels and layers, which is why it has all the same features and qualities as the complex system. If we do want to research "the efficiency of electric power market", then we have to follow the evolution law of the complex system and also its features.
Focusing on those topics, this paper defined what "the efficiency of electric power market" is in the first place, and then based on this definition, established the index system to reflect those influencing factors of the effective competition. Moreover, this paper constructed an evaluation model toward the effective competition on electric market, so that it analyzed the effective competition among the electric market's subsystems. There are some main innovations in this paper: firstly, based on the analysis of the characteristics and evolution law of the electric power market complex system, this paper defined what "the effective competition of electric power market" is, replaced the concept of "the efficiency of electric power market", and preceded the research from the perspective of the evaluation of the efficiency of electric power market; secondly, based on the complex system theory, this paper established the index system to reflect those influencing factors of the effective competition; thirdly, this paper constructed an dynamic evaluation model toward the effective competition on electric market; fourthly, this paper studied the effective competition among the subsystems of the electric power market; finally, this paper made an empirical analysis of the effective competition in the electric power market of South China.
This paper consisted of seven sections:
In the first section, this paper introduced the complex system theory and analyzed the research methods. It summed up the characteristics of the complex system and elaborated the evolution law which based on its dissipative structure and self-organization criticality. In addition, it considered all the research methods of complex system and explained why the synergetics, the catastrophe theory are able to apply here.
In the second section, this paper studied the complex characteristics of the electric power market. This section summed up the self-organization, openness and emergent property as the three basic complex characteristics and used fractal theory to testify the emergent property of the electric power market; besides, it constructed the state space of the electric power market complex system, including system boundary, target, environment and structure; then it analyzed the electric power market's dissipative structure property and the evolution under this condition; at last, this section analyzed the self-organized criticality evolution law and testified it with the power law theory.
In the third section, this paper made some research toward the effective competition in electric power market. It analyzed the effective competition's basic theory and discussed the effective competition in electric power market, bringing up "effective competition in electric power market" under the concepts of "fair-use resource" and "compatible incentive"; also, based on the outside and inside driving force of evolution, this section established the index system to reflect those influencing factors of the effective competition, laid a foundation to construct the synergy evolution model for the electricity market and calculate the order parameter.
In the fourth section, this paper studied how to construct the synergy evolution model for the electricity market and how to calculate the order parameter. After analyzed the fundamental principle of phylogeny, this section compared three classic evolution equations and constructed the synergy evolution model that reflected the operation in electric power market on the basis of Langevin equation; also, after analyzed the principle of order parameter and compared four calculation methods, it come up with the recognition method which was called "reduction of the multi-factor's dimension" on the basis of the adiabatic elimination method.
In the fifth section, this paper studied the mechanism of recognizing effective competition state in electric power market. It studied the rules of recognizing effective competition state in electric power market on the basis of single order parameter and potential function; and also it analyzed the recognition rules again based on the multiple order parameter and Hessen matrix.
In the sixth section, upon the SCP theory, the dynamic model of optimal reaction and the mechanism design theory, this paper in-depth studied the effective competition in electric power market from the cutting points of the three subsystem: market structure, behavior and trade. In this section, it came up with the effective competition evaluation criterion of one subsystem, the power generation market structure; it studied the generators' dynamic mechanism of optimal reaction; also it studied the generators'speculative bidding behavior and the regulation design in the spot market.
In the seventh section, this paper empirically analyzed the effective competition state in the electric power market of South China. It analyzed the tendency of the recognition index system of the effective competition in the electric power market of South China; also it used the "reduction of the multi-factor's dimension" method to identify the order parameters of synergy evolution; moreover, it analyzed the effective competition state of the South China electric power market; and it studied the effective competition of the subsystem in the electric power market of South China.
The research of this paper provided new ideas and theoretical basis for the further study of "the efficiency of electric power market", and also theoretically supported the solution design for the electric power market reform.
引文
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