汇率变动对现代服务业的影响
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摘要
在开放经济条件下,汇率的变动从多方面影响国家经济的整体运行。人民币汇率形成机制改革和汇率的调整必然会对中国经济增长产生影响。
本文将从汇率变动对现代服务业的影响出发,选取金融服务业和旅游服务业作为行业研究对象,探究国际汇率变动在不同行业传导的共性和差别。同时,剖析旅游业对国际收支的再平衡作用,为我国现代服务业的不同行业在面对人民币汇率变动时选择发展路径提供相关的理论分析和实证分析,并针对如何保持汇率稳定,实现我国现代服务业均衡发展提出相关的对策建议。
首先,本文采用银行资产负债率和总资产净利率来衡量商业银行的风险和收益,通过面板数据模型分析,结果显示在考虑宏观经济环境变化影响的情况下,人民币实际有效汇率与商业银行的资产负债率和总资产净利率存在长期均衡关系。但在短期内人民币实际有效汇率(REER)对商业银行的资产负债率和总资产净利率的影响均不显著。同时,由于银行间的发展差异,不同商业银行在面对汇率变动影响时的表现也各有不同。
其次,选取沪深300指数与香港恒生指数为样本,比较分析当人民币汇率发生波动时,大陆资本市场与香港资本市场的具体反应,通过VAR协整检验得出如下结果,汇率变动对股市的影响显著,且人民币汇率与恒生指数收益率和沪深300指数收益率存在长期均衡关系。并且,国内股票市场上,汇率变动对金融和旅游板块的股票价格产出不同影响。
然后,建立VAR模型,考察汇率变动与旅游外汇收入和入境旅游人数的关联性。长期来看,汇率上升将促进入境旅游外汇收入的增加。另外,采用面板数据模型,并引入国内总产值和居民消费水平指标,分析多个经济因素作用下实际有效汇率对入境旅游外汇收入的影响。短期内,实际有效汇率对入境旅游外汇收入的影响不明显,而且由于旅游服务业在我国各地区间的发展不平衡,实际有效汇率对国内不同地区旅游外汇收入的影响也各不相同。
在具体研究方法上,本文将定性分析与定量研究相结合,定性分析中利用普遍性的理论研究为基础,定量分析则以数据平台以及计量经济学的研究方法为基础,包括协整模型、面板数据模型等。通过实证研究对理论和数理模型分析中的相关假设进行检验,力求较为客观、全面地反映人民币汇率波动在现代服务行业中的传导及影响。
在内容安排上,本文首先阐述研究的背景和意义,目标、方法,以及思路和创新等(第一章)；接着文章分析国际汇率决定理论的发展过程,并以此作为全文论述的理论基础,同时,分别就汇率对金融行业以及旅游行业的影响进行中外的文献综述(第二章)；其次,分别对金融机构、金融市场以及出入境旅游业进行现状描述,评述国际汇率变动对金融服务业和出入境旅游业的具体影响情况(第三章)；然后,通过模型构建和实证分析说明汇率变动在银行等金融机构中的传导过程,以及汇率波动的风险对银行业实际产生的影响(第四章)；通过实证,对比分析了中国大陆和香港地区的资本市场价格应对汇率变动冲击的具体差异,以及汇率变动对金融和旅游板块指数的影响(第五章)；另外,实证分析汇率的变动对旅游服务业的总体发展以及不同地区的旅游服务业发展可能产生的影响(第六章)；最后,从维护人民币汇率稳定,确保商业银行在汇率波动下的安全,通过资本市场自身的完善和改革,积极应对人民币汇率的变动,正确引导外国资本在国内进行合理投资,以及积极推进我国旅游服务业发展,充分发挥其对国际贸易收支再平衡的作用等几个方面提出相应的政策建议(第七章)。
Under the condition of open economy, changes in exchange rates run from the multidimensional impact of the national economy as a whole. Reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism and exchange rate adjustments will inevitably have an impact on China's economic growth.
This article will proceed from the impact of exchange rate movements on modern service industry, using the financial services and hospitality industry as research objects, explore the international exchange rate movements in the conduction of commonalities and differences in different sectors. At the same time, resolution foreign exchange payments for international services trade balance balancing role for different industries in the face of China's modern service industry related to RMB exchange rate changes select development paths provide theoretical analysis and empirical test results. And aimed at maintaining exchange rate stability and achieving balanced development of modern service industry in China, this paper proposed the relevant suggestions.
First of all, the article uses banking assets debt ratio and total assets net interest rate to measure the risks and benefits of commercial banks. Through the analysis of panel data model, results show there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate and the ratio of assets liabilities, total assets interest of commercial banksin taking macroeconomic environment changes into account. In the short term RMB real effective exchange rate's effects on commercial bank's asset-liability ratio of total assets and net interest rate are not significant. Meanwhile because ofthe different development stage among banks, different commercial banks in the face of the impact of exchange rate movements vary.
Secondly, it selected the CSI300index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index as the samples, then compareand analyze the specific reaction of the capital market in mainland and in Hong Kong when RMB exchange rate fluctuations occur. The VAR Co-integration test results showed that the influence of exchange rate movements on the stock market is significant. There is long-run equilibrium relationship between RMB exchange rate and the Hang Seng index and the CSI300index.
Then, explore the relevance of exchange rate movements and foreign exchange earnings from tourism or the number of inbound tourism by establishing a VAR model; In the long term, the rise of exchange rate will promote increased foreign exchange earnings in tourism. In addition, adding economic factors by using panel data model, analyze the impact of the real effective exchange rate on the foreign exchange earnings of inbound tourism. In the short term, the real effective exchange rate's impact on foreign exchange earnings of inbound tourism is not obvious. Furthermore, due to the imbalances of the development on tourist industry in different regions of China, the impact of real effective exchange rate on domestic tourism in different place also varies.
On the specific research methods, this article combines qualitative and quantitative research; Qualitative analysis is based on the universality of the theory as a basis, Quantitative analysis based on data platform as well as econometric research methods, including time series data model, a panel data model, etc. Through testing the relevant assumptions of mathematical model analysis, we look forward to more objectively and comprehensively reflect the conduction and the effects of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the modern service industry.
On the flame of this paper, it sets out the background, significance
research, objectives, methods, ideas and innovations of the research (Chapter
one).Then we analyzed thedevelopment process of international exchange
rate determination theory as the theatrical fundament of the full article and
conducted a literature review about the impact of exchange rate movements
on the financial industry and on the tourism industry (Chapter two). We
describe the status of financial institutions and financial markets as well as
tourism and review the concrete impact of international exchange rate
movements on the financial sector and tourism(Chapter three). By constructing
a model and empirical analysis, the paper illustrates the transfer process of the
exchange rate in banks and other financial institutions, and the impact of
exchange rate fluctuations on the banking industry (Chapter four). We
compared the different changes on the prices of capital markets in Hong Kong
and in mainland China in response to exchange rate movements(Chapter five).
Through empirical analysis, we examine the impact of exchange rate
movements on the overall development of tourism. And exchange rate
movements on the implications of tourism development in different areas.
Through empirical analysis, we examine the impact of exchange rate
movements on the overall development of tourism and tourism development in
different areas (Chapter six). Finally, we propose appropriate policy
recommendations. We want to preserve stability of RMB exchange rate. We
need to ensure the safety of commercial banks under the exchange rate
fluctuations. We have to reform the capital markets to enable it better to
respond to changes in currency exchange rates and correctly guide
reasonable investments of foreign capital in the country. We need to promote
actively the development of tourism in our country, and give full play to its role
on international trade rebalancing (Chapter seven).
本文将从汇率变动对现代服务业的影响出发,选取金融服务业和旅游服务业作为行业研究对象,探究国际汇率变动在不同行业传导的共性和差别。同时,剖析旅游业对国际收支的再平衡作用,为我国现代服务业的不同行业在面对人民币汇率变动时选择发展路径提供相关的理论分析和实证分析,并针对如何保持汇率稳定,实现我国现代服务业均衡发展提出相关的对策建议。
首先,本文采用银行资产负债率和总资产净利率来衡量商业银行的风险和收益,通过面板数据模型分析,结果显示在考虑宏观经济环境变化影响的情况下,人民币实际有效汇率与商业银行的资产负债率和总资产净利率存在长期均衡关系。但在短期内人民币实际有效汇率(REER)对商业银行的资产负债率和总资产净利率的影响均不显著。同时,由于银行间的发展差异,不同商业银行在面对汇率变动影响时的表现也各有不同。
其次,选取沪深300指数与香港恒生指数为样本,比较分析当人民币汇率发生波动时,大陆资本市场与香港资本市场的具体反应,通过VAR协整检验得出如下结果,汇率变动对股市的影响显著,且人民币汇率与恒生指数收益率和沪深300指数收益率存在长期均衡关系。并且,国内股票市场上,汇率变动对金融和旅游板块的股票价格产出不同影响。
然后,建立VAR模型,考察汇率变动与旅游外汇收入和入境旅游人数的关联性。长期来看,汇率上升将促进入境旅游外汇收入的增加。另外,采用面板数据模型,并引入国内总产值和居民消费水平指标,分析多个经济因素作用下实际有效汇率对入境旅游外汇收入的影响。短期内,实际有效汇率对入境旅游外汇收入的影响不明显,而且由于旅游服务业在我国各地区间的发展不平衡,实际有效汇率对国内不同地区旅游外汇收入的影响也各不相同。
在具体研究方法上,本文将定性分析与定量研究相结合,定性分析中利用普遍性的理论研究为基础,定量分析则以数据平台以及计量经济学的研究方法为基础,包括协整模型、面板数据模型等。通过实证研究对理论和数理模型分析中的相关假设进行检验,力求较为客观、全面地反映人民币汇率波动在现代服务行业中的传导及影响。
在内容安排上,本文首先阐述研究的背景和意义,目标、方法,以及思路和创新等(第一章)；接着文章分析国际汇率决定理论的发展过程,并以此作为全文论述的理论基础,同时,分别就汇率对金融行业以及旅游行业的影响进行中外的文献综述(第二章)；其次,分别对金融机构、金融市场以及出入境旅游业进行现状描述,评述国际汇率变动对金融服务业和出入境旅游业的具体影响情况(第三章)；然后,通过模型构建和实证分析说明汇率变动在银行等金融机构中的传导过程,以及汇率波动的风险对银行业实际产生的影响(第四章)；通过实证,对比分析了中国大陆和香港地区的资本市场价格应对汇率变动冲击的具体差异,以及汇率变动对金融和旅游板块指数的影响(第五章)；另外,实证分析汇率的变动对旅游服务业的总体发展以及不同地区的旅游服务业发展可能产生的影响(第六章)；最后,从维护人民币汇率稳定,确保商业银行在汇率波动下的安全,通过资本市场自身的完善和改革,积极应对人民币汇率的变动,正确引导外国资本在国内进行合理投资,以及积极推进我国旅游服务业发展,充分发挥其对国际贸易收支再平衡的作用等几个方面提出相应的政策建议(第七章)。
Under the condition of open economy, changes in exchange rates run from the multidimensional impact of the national economy as a whole. Reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism and exchange rate adjustments will inevitably have an impact on China's economic growth.
This article will proceed from the impact of exchange rate movements on modern service industry, using the financial services and hospitality industry as research objects, explore the international exchange rate movements in the conduction of commonalities and differences in different sectors. At the same time, resolution foreign exchange payments for international services trade balance balancing role for different industries in the face of China's modern service industry related to RMB exchange rate changes select development paths provide theoretical analysis and empirical test results. And aimed at maintaining exchange rate stability and achieving balanced development of modern service industry in China, this paper proposed the relevant suggestions.
First of all, the article uses banking assets debt ratio and total assets net interest rate to measure the risks and benefits of commercial banks. Through the analysis of panel data model, results show there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate and the ratio of assets liabilities, total assets interest of commercial banksin taking macroeconomic environment changes into account. In the short term RMB real effective exchange rate's effects on commercial bank's asset-liability ratio of total assets and net interest rate are not significant. Meanwhile because ofthe different development stage among banks, different commercial banks in the face of the impact of exchange rate movements vary.
Secondly, it selected the CSI300index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index as the samples, then compareand analyze the specific reaction of the capital market in mainland and in Hong Kong when RMB exchange rate fluctuations occur. The VAR Co-integration test results showed that the influence of exchange rate movements on the stock market is significant. There is long-run equilibrium relationship between RMB exchange rate and the Hang Seng index and the CSI300index.
Then, explore the relevance of exchange rate movements and foreign exchange earnings from tourism or the number of inbound tourism by establishing a VAR model; In the long term, the rise of exchange rate will promote increased foreign exchange earnings in tourism. In addition, adding economic factors by using panel data model, analyze the impact of the real effective exchange rate on the foreign exchange earnings of inbound tourism. In the short term, the real effective exchange rate's impact on foreign exchange earnings of inbound tourism is not obvious. Furthermore, due to the imbalances of the development on tourist industry in different regions of China, the impact of real effective exchange rate on domestic tourism in different place also varies.
On the specific research methods, this article combines qualitative and quantitative research; Qualitative analysis is based on the universality of the theory as a basis, Quantitative analysis based on data platform as well as econometric research methods, including time series data model, a panel data model, etc. Through testing the relevant assumptions of mathematical model analysis, we look forward to more objectively and comprehensively reflect the conduction and the effects of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the modern service industry.
On the flame of this paper, it sets out the background, significance
research, objectives, methods, ideas and innovations of the research (Chapter
one).Then we analyzed thedevelopment process of international exchange
rate determination theory as the theatrical fundament of the full article and
conducted a literature review about the impact of exchange rate movements
on the financial industry and on the tourism industry (Chapter two). We
describe the status of financial institutions and financial markets as well as
tourism and review the concrete impact of international exchange rate
movements on the financial sector and tourism(Chapter three). By constructing
a model and empirical analysis, the paper illustrates the transfer process of the
exchange rate in banks and other financial institutions, and the impact of
exchange rate fluctuations on the banking industry (Chapter four). We
compared the different changes on the prices of capital markets in Hong Kong
and in mainland China in response to exchange rate movements(Chapter five).
Through empirical analysis, we examine the impact of exchange rate
movements on the overall development of tourism. And exchange rate
movements on the implications of tourism development in different areas.
Through empirical analysis, we examine the impact of exchange rate
movements on the overall development of tourism and tourism development in
different areas (Chapter six). Finally, we propose appropriate policy
recommendations. We want to preserve stability of RMB exchange rate. We
need to ensure the safety of commercial banks under the exchange rate
fluctuations. We have to reform the capital markets to enable it better to
respond to changes in currency exchange rates and correctly guide
reasonable investments of foreign capital in the country. We need to promote
actively the development of tourism in our country, and give full play to its role
on international trade rebalancing (Chapter seven).
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