海外人才回流与FDI技术溢出
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摘要
新经济增长理论认为,受自身创新能力的限制,FDI的技术扩散效应是发展中国家技术进步的重要来源。而随着全球化、新技术革命以及工业化进程的不断加深,海外人才回流现象开始大量出现,他们对推动跨国公司在东道国的投资,加速东道国和国际经济接轨等方面发挥了重要作用。且由于跨国公司雇佣本土人才“人力资本门槛”的存在,海外回流人才在跨国公司与本土企业间的流动成为FDI技术溢出的重要方式。改革开放至今,中国派出的留学人员中归国人数达40万,并且随着中国研发投资规模的扩大和高等教育的普及,我国人力资本水平持续提高、结构不断优化,海外人才回流规模逐年提高。在当前中国自主创新能力相对薄弱的背景下,海外回流人才作为FDI技术溢出的重要渠道,如何充分发挥其潜能、引导回流人才在FDI企业与本土企业间合理流动,对推动中国的技术进步具有重要意义。
海外回流人才在推动一国或地区经济发展,国际合作与创新等方面承担着重要角色,但国内针对跨国公司中海归人才‘及其重要性的系统性研究还很缺乏,本文在对国内外相关文献系统整理的基础上,探讨了海归人才在跨国公司技术外溢过程中的作用,通过将理论研究与经济计量相结合,以中国为主要研究对象,就海外人才回流对FDI技术溢出的影响进行了系统研究,主要内容和结论为：
(1)构建了海外人才回流、FDI技术溢出及两者之间关系的理论模型,为文章的实证研究奠定理论基础。外国直接投资被认为是国际技术溢出中最重要,也是最廉价的渠道,而海外回流人才对FDI技术溢出效应的充分发挥具有重要作用。
(2)分别基于中国总体及地区级的样本数据,利用GMM动态面板数据等方法就中国海外人才回流及其对FDI技术溢出之间的关系及动态作用进行经验研究。并对中国FDI和海外人才回流的变化趋势、发展历程进行了一般性的描述分析。研究认为中国要想更好地利用外资的技术溢出效应,提高外商直接投资对中国经济增长的贡献率,必须提高自身对FDI溢出技术的吸收能力,才能充分发挥FDI对技术进步的促进作用,而海外回流人才对提高中国自身的人力资本水平及进一步的技术吸收能力具有重要作用,中国应当增加教育投入以提高本地的人力资本存量,建立良好有序的人力资本流动制度,采用适当的激励机制,吸引海归人才更多的流回国内或流向本土企业。
(3)作为海外人才回流的主体,海外留学归国人员是一国技术进步的重要力量,而一国金融市场发展水平是影响其国内海归技术溢出状况的重要因素。通过将金融市场发展引入海外人才回流对FDI技术溢出影响的分析框架,文章的实证研究表明：中国金融市场对海归引致的FDI技术溢出的积极作用开始显现,但是由于我国金融市场发展水平不高,金融市场体系不尽完善,不能为海归引致的FDI技术溢出效应的发挥提供有效的金融支持。
本文就海外人才回流对中国FDI技术溢出影响的研究,具有一定的理论和现实意义。本文研究的创新点体现在以下三个方面：
第一,在国内首次将海外人才回流引入FDI技术溢出的分析框架。本文在前人研究的基础上对传统FDI技术溢出的分析框架进行了拓展,将海外人才回流引入FDI技术溢出的研究框架,从一个新的角度去审视国际人才流动对一国外商直接投资引致的技术进步的影响,这突破了之前许多研究将视角集中于传统FDI技术溢出路径的框架。
第二,本文第三章构建了海外人才回流与FDI技术溢出的理论模型,在动态框架内分析了海外人才回流对发展中国家技术进步和经济增长的影响。模型表明,海外人才回流可以通过FDI技术溢出给东道国带来扩张性经济效应。人员流动是跨国公司母公司与子公司间技术传输的主要渠道,当海归人员由跨国公司流向当地企业时技术溢出发生。对影响因素的分析表明跨国公司与当地企业之间的技术差距越小,由人员流动产生的技术溢出效应越显著。
第三,本文第五章从地区层面就海外人才回流对FDI技术溢出的影响进行实证分析。首先,将海外人才回流引入FDI研发溢出的计量模型,运用中国省际面板数据,检验其对中国FDI技术溢出的影响及地区差异,并进一步构建门限模型,测度各门限变量的门限水平值并进行分析,发现金融市场效率对海外人才回流引致的FDI技术溢出效应具有非线性关系；其次,进一步考察金融市场发展在海外人才回流与FDI技术溢出中的地位及作用机制,以分析金融市场效率对海外人才回流引致的FDI技术溢出效应非线性关系的稳健性。将海外人才回流与FDI技术溢出纳入统一框架的研究,在国内具有一定的开创意义,在国际范围内,为该问题的研究提供了中国的经验证据,同时,也为发展中国家充分利用海外回流人才与FDI技术溢出的互动提供了经验。
As neo-growth theory puts it, given the limits of their own capability of innovation, one of the significant sources of technological advance for developing economies is the spillover effect of FDI. With constant deepening of globalization, new technology revolution and industrialization, the phenomenon of return of overseas talents began to emerge and this is pivotal to promote multinationals to invest in their home countries and to accelerate those countries' integration into global economy; and due to existence of "human capital threshold" faced by multinationals when hiring local talents, the flow of returning overseas talents between multinationals and local companies constitutes a critical means of technology spillover from FDI. Since its beginning of reform and opening-up, more than400,0000among people sent from mainland China to study abroad have returned, and with the expansion of the country's R&D investment and its higher education base, China's human capital has experienced continuous increase in reserve and optimization in composition. In the background of relatively weak local innovation, the return of overseas talents remains an essential means of FDI technology spillover. Thus, leveraging the potentials of such returning talents and guiding their movement between FDI and local businesses are critical for China's technology advance.
Returning overseas talents play an important role in promoting national or regional economic growth, international cooperation as well as innovation, but systematical research lacks in mainland China as to returning talents in multinationals and their contribution. This paper conducts a systematical review of relevant literatures home and abroad, on this basis explores the role of returning talents in technology spillover through multinationals, then by combining theoretical and empirical methods, systematically analyzes the effect of returnees upon FDI technology spillover in China, main contents and conclusions as follows:
Create a theoretical model for returnees, FDI technology spillover and their relation, thus laying the theoretical foundation for empirical study. Foreign direct investment is deemed as one of most important yet most inexpensive channels for technology spillover, while returning overseas talents is instrumental to make the best of such spillover effect.
Based respectively on China's overall and regional sample data, and using such methods as GMM dynamic panel, conduct empirical study on China's returnees and their relation with FDI technology spillover as well as their dynamic impact, describe and analyze the trends, history between the country's FDI and returnees. The result is that in order for China to make better use of FDI technology spillover effect and to increase contribution by FDI to its growth, the country has to improve its own absorption of FDI technology spillover; in this process, returning talents are critical to increase China's human capital and further its absorption of technology, and the country should therefore put more resources into educating its workforce, establish a sound and orderly mechanism for talents movement, introduce appropriate incentive measures to attract more returning talents back to the country or to local companies.
As the mainstream of returning overseas talents, returnees constitutes a major force for a country's technology advance, while sophistication of local financial market is an important factor affecting technology spillover brought about by returning talents. By putting financial market into an framework for analyzing impact of returnees upon FDI technology spillover, the empirical study of this paper draws such a point:positive effect of China's financial market upon FDI technology spillover through returning talents has begun to emerge, yet due to the non-sophistication of the country's financial market and system, useful financial support needed for maximizing FDI technology spillover through returnees remains unavailable.
This study on FDI technology spillover in China brought about by returnees has its relevance both in theoretical and realistic terms, its breakthrough lying in the following three aspects:
First, this is a fresh attempt to put return of overseas talents into an analyzing framework for FDI technology spillover. This paper builds on previous studies, expands traditional analyzing framework for FDI technology spillover by introducing into it the returnees, reviews impact of international talents movement upon technology advance attributable to foreign direct investment.
Second, chapter three hereof builds a theoretical model on returnees and FDI technology spillover, and within a dynamic framework, analyzes the impact of returnees upon technological advance and economical growth of developing countries. This model illustrates that returnees may lead to economic expansion of a country as the destination through FDI technology spillover. Personnel movement is a major channel for transfer of technology between parents and subsidiaries of multinationals, which occurs when overseas talents move from multinational to local companies. An analysis of factors suggests that the smaller the technology gap between a multinational and a local company is, the more significant the effect of technology spillover is.
Third, chapter five hereof conducts an empirical analysis of impact upon FDI technology spillover of overseas talents return at the regional level. As the first step, this part puts returnees into a quantitative model of FDI R&D spillover, by using China's inter-provincial panel data, investigates its impact upon the country's technology spillover and regional variance, and further builds threshold model to gauge and analyze threshold values of each variables, finds out the relation between efficacy of financial market and FDI technology spillover attributable to overseas talents return is non-linear; then, this part further explores the role of development of financial market in overseas talent return and FDI technology spillover as well as their interacting mechanism, so as to analyze the robustness of the non-linear relation between efficacy of financial market and FDI technology spillover attributable to overseas talents return. The placement of returnees and FDI technology spillover into a single framework makes a breakthrough in China, provides the international community with China's empirical evidence regarding the subject and offers China's experience to developing economies in respect of leveraging the interaction between returning talents and FDI technology spillover.
海外回流人才在推动一国或地区经济发展,国际合作与创新等方面承担着重要角色,但国内针对跨国公司中海归人才‘及其重要性的系统性研究还很缺乏,本文在对国内外相关文献系统整理的基础上,探讨了海归人才在跨国公司技术外溢过程中的作用,通过将理论研究与经济计量相结合,以中国为主要研究对象,就海外人才回流对FDI技术溢出的影响进行了系统研究,主要内容和结论为：
(1)构建了海外人才回流、FDI技术溢出及两者之间关系的理论模型,为文章的实证研究奠定理论基础。外国直接投资被认为是国际技术溢出中最重要,也是最廉价的渠道,而海外回流人才对FDI技术溢出效应的充分发挥具有重要作用。
(2)分别基于中国总体及地区级的样本数据,利用GMM动态面板数据等方法就中国海外人才回流及其对FDI技术溢出之间的关系及动态作用进行经验研究。并对中国FDI和海外人才回流的变化趋势、发展历程进行了一般性的描述分析。研究认为中国要想更好地利用外资的技术溢出效应,提高外商直接投资对中国经济增长的贡献率,必须提高自身对FDI溢出技术的吸收能力,才能充分发挥FDI对技术进步的促进作用,而海外回流人才对提高中国自身的人力资本水平及进一步的技术吸收能力具有重要作用,中国应当增加教育投入以提高本地的人力资本存量,建立良好有序的人力资本流动制度,采用适当的激励机制,吸引海归人才更多的流回国内或流向本土企业。
(3)作为海外人才回流的主体,海外留学归国人员是一国技术进步的重要力量,而一国金融市场发展水平是影响其国内海归技术溢出状况的重要因素。通过将金融市场发展引入海外人才回流对FDI技术溢出影响的分析框架,文章的实证研究表明：中国金融市场对海归引致的FDI技术溢出的积极作用开始显现,但是由于我国金融市场发展水平不高,金融市场体系不尽完善,不能为海归引致的FDI技术溢出效应的发挥提供有效的金融支持。
本文就海外人才回流对中国FDI技术溢出影响的研究,具有一定的理论和现实意义。本文研究的创新点体现在以下三个方面：
第一,在国内首次将海外人才回流引入FDI技术溢出的分析框架。本文在前人研究的基础上对传统FDI技术溢出的分析框架进行了拓展,将海外人才回流引入FDI技术溢出的研究框架,从一个新的角度去审视国际人才流动对一国外商直接投资引致的技术进步的影响,这突破了之前许多研究将视角集中于传统FDI技术溢出路径的框架。
第二,本文第三章构建了海外人才回流与FDI技术溢出的理论模型,在动态框架内分析了海外人才回流对发展中国家技术进步和经济增长的影响。模型表明,海外人才回流可以通过FDI技术溢出给东道国带来扩张性经济效应。人员流动是跨国公司母公司与子公司间技术传输的主要渠道,当海归人员由跨国公司流向当地企业时技术溢出发生。对影响因素的分析表明跨国公司与当地企业之间的技术差距越小,由人员流动产生的技术溢出效应越显著。
第三,本文第五章从地区层面就海外人才回流对FDI技术溢出的影响进行实证分析。首先,将海外人才回流引入FDI研发溢出的计量模型,运用中国省际面板数据,检验其对中国FDI技术溢出的影响及地区差异,并进一步构建门限模型,测度各门限变量的门限水平值并进行分析,发现金融市场效率对海外人才回流引致的FDI技术溢出效应具有非线性关系；其次,进一步考察金融市场发展在海外人才回流与FDI技术溢出中的地位及作用机制,以分析金融市场效率对海外人才回流引致的FDI技术溢出效应非线性关系的稳健性。将海外人才回流与FDI技术溢出纳入统一框架的研究,在国内具有一定的开创意义,在国际范围内,为该问题的研究提供了中国的经验证据,同时,也为发展中国家充分利用海外回流人才与FDI技术溢出的互动提供了经验。
As neo-growth theory puts it, given the limits of their own capability of innovation, one of the significant sources of technological advance for developing economies is the spillover effect of FDI. With constant deepening of globalization, new technology revolution and industrialization, the phenomenon of return of overseas talents began to emerge and this is pivotal to promote multinationals to invest in their home countries and to accelerate those countries' integration into global economy; and due to existence of "human capital threshold" faced by multinationals when hiring local talents, the flow of returning overseas talents between multinationals and local companies constitutes a critical means of technology spillover from FDI. Since its beginning of reform and opening-up, more than400,0000among people sent from mainland China to study abroad have returned, and with the expansion of the country's R&D investment and its higher education base, China's human capital has experienced continuous increase in reserve and optimization in composition. In the background of relatively weak local innovation, the return of overseas talents remains an essential means of FDI technology spillover. Thus, leveraging the potentials of such returning talents and guiding their movement between FDI and local businesses are critical for China's technology advance.
Returning overseas talents play an important role in promoting national or regional economic growth, international cooperation as well as innovation, but systematical research lacks in mainland China as to returning talents in multinationals and their contribution. This paper conducts a systematical review of relevant literatures home and abroad, on this basis explores the role of returning talents in technology spillover through multinationals, then by combining theoretical and empirical methods, systematically analyzes the effect of returnees upon FDI technology spillover in China, main contents and conclusions as follows:
Create a theoretical model for returnees, FDI technology spillover and their relation, thus laying the theoretical foundation for empirical study. Foreign direct investment is deemed as one of most important yet most inexpensive channels for technology spillover, while returning overseas talents is instrumental to make the best of such spillover effect.
Based respectively on China's overall and regional sample data, and using such methods as GMM dynamic panel, conduct empirical study on China's returnees and their relation with FDI technology spillover as well as their dynamic impact, describe and analyze the trends, history between the country's FDI and returnees. The result is that in order for China to make better use of FDI technology spillover effect and to increase contribution by FDI to its growth, the country has to improve its own absorption of FDI technology spillover; in this process, returning talents are critical to increase China's human capital and further its absorption of technology, and the country should therefore put more resources into educating its workforce, establish a sound and orderly mechanism for talents movement, introduce appropriate incentive measures to attract more returning talents back to the country or to local companies.
As the mainstream of returning overseas talents, returnees constitutes a major force for a country's technology advance, while sophistication of local financial market is an important factor affecting technology spillover brought about by returning talents. By putting financial market into an framework for analyzing impact of returnees upon FDI technology spillover, the empirical study of this paper draws such a point:positive effect of China's financial market upon FDI technology spillover through returning talents has begun to emerge, yet due to the non-sophistication of the country's financial market and system, useful financial support needed for maximizing FDI technology spillover through returnees remains unavailable.
This study on FDI technology spillover in China brought about by returnees has its relevance both in theoretical and realistic terms, its breakthrough lying in the following three aspects:
First, this is a fresh attempt to put return of overseas talents into an analyzing framework for FDI technology spillover. This paper builds on previous studies, expands traditional analyzing framework for FDI technology spillover by introducing into it the returnees, reviews impact of international talents movement upon technology advance attributable to foreign direct investment.
Second, chapter three hereof builds a theoretical model on returnees and FDI technology spillover, and within a dynamic framework, analyzes the impact of returnees upon technological advance and economical growth of developing countries. This model illustrates that returnees may lead to economic expansion of a country as the destination through FDI technology spillover. Personnel movement is a major channel for transfer of technology between parents and subsidiaries of multinationals, which occurs when overseas talents move from multinational to local companies. An analysis of factors suggests that the smaller the technology gap between a multinational and a local company is, the more significant the effect of technology spillover is.
Third, chapter five hereof conducts an empirical analysis of impact upon FDI technology spillover of overseas talents return at the regional level. As the first step, this part puts returnees into a quantitative model of FDI R&D spillover, by using China's inter-provincial panel data, investigates its impact upon the country's technology spillover and regional variance, and further builds threshold model to gauge and analyze threshold values of each variables, finds out the relation between efficacy of financial market and FDI technology spillover attributable to overseas talents return is non-linear; then, this part further explores the role of development of financial market in overseas talent return and FDI technology spillover as well as their interacting mechanism, so as to analyze the robustness of the non-linear relation between efficacy of financial market and FDI technology spillover attributable to overseas talents return. The placement of returnees and FDI technology spillover into a single framework makes a breakthrough in China, provides the international community with China's empirical evidence regarding the subject and offers China's experience to developing economies in respect of leveraging the interaction between returning talents and FDI technology spillover.
引文
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