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21世纪初印度亚太战略研究
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摘要
21世纪初的十年,亚太地区成为了世界舞台最具活力和最具影响力的地区,世界各国对亚太地区的局势与格局变革尤为关注。作为新兴大国,印度也对亚太地区也给予了更多关注,将其未来的战略志向同亚太地区紧密相连。在大国理念的指引下,印度不断推进与发展同亚太地区国家和多边组织的全面关系,努力提升在亚太地区的影响力,试图成为该地区具有影响力和感召力的大国。
     本文试图对21世纪初印度的亚太战略进行全面的、系统性的研究。本文认为,印度亚太战略的根源在于其长期恪守的大国理念,而在追求大国地位的过程中,亚太地区始终未完全脱离印度的战略视野。21世纪初,印度的经济活力、科技创新力、军事威慑力和政治影响力得到了明显提升,再加上深厚的软实力资源,印度具有了向外部世界拓展实力和影响力的基础,这是印度实施亚太战略的前提条件。亚太地区环境的变化,尤其是权力结构的调整,成为了印度亚太战略得以实施的重要外部因素。印度的亚太战略是一个具有针对性、全面性的战略部署,其蕴含印度在亚太的战略目标和战略手段。通过对印度亚太战略目标、手段、影响和挑战的分析,可以判定未来印度在亚太地区的姿态。其中,印度在亚太的战略目标具有多重性,包括实现经济崛起、战略自治、权力平衡以及海权等等。印度实施亚太战略的手段包括双边外交和多边外交,双边外交以亚太大国为主导,同时兼顾较小国家,多边外交以亚太主要多边组织为主线,同时关注较为边缘的多边组织诸如太平洋岛国论坛,双边外交与多边外交相互结合使得印度在地区事务中有更多的活动空间和自主性。印度亚太战略实施的影响主要有四个方面:其一是改变了亚太地区的权力结构和构成;其二是提升了本国实力,扩大了在亚太的影响力;其三是为印度营造了一个和谐的周边环境;其四是促使中国的周边局势更加复杂。本文还认为,印度亚太战略实施所面临的挑战主要来自于印度国家内部以及印度周边地区。印度动荡的国内局势、各个民族宗教之间的矛盾以及印度与周边国家关系的不确定性,都会迫使印度调整战略目标和转移战略资源。对于未来印度在亚太的姿态,本文认为一个倡导地区和平、稳定与繁荣的印度能更多受到亚太国家的欢迎和认可。
     最后,本文认为,印度的亚太战略是其世界大国战略的重要组成部分。印度亚太战略的基本原则是平衡外交。这项原则将贯穿印度亚太战略的始终,直到印度成为真正的亚太大国和全球大国。
At the first decade of the21stcentury, the Asia-Pacific region has become the mostdynamic and influential region on the world stage. As a rising power, India also paysmore attention to the Asia-Pacific region, and correlates the future strategic ambitionswith the Asia-Pacific tightly. Under the direction of the idea of great power, Indiadevelops and strengthens the comprehensive relations with the nations andmultilateral organizations in the Asia-Pacific region continuously, and endeavors topromote the influences in the region. India is making an attempt to become a greatpower with influence and charisma.
     This thesis tries to do the comprehensive and systematic study of India’sAsia-Pacific strategy at the beginning of the21stcentury. This thesis considers that theroots of India’s Asia-Pacific strategy lie in the idea of great power which India hasbeen abided by for a long time. During the course of pursuing the position of greatpower, the Asia-Pacific region never breaks away from India’s strategic vision. At thebeginning of the21STcentury, India’s economic vigor, scientific and technologicalinnovation, military deterrence and political influence have gained obvious progress.Adding the resources of soft power, India has the underpinning and resources toexhibit strength and influence toward the outside world, which is the precondition ofIndia carrying out Asia-Pacific strategy. The change of the surroundings in theAsia-Pacific region, especially the adjustment of power structure, becomes theimportant external factors that India carries out the Asia-Pacific strategy. India’sAsia-Pacific strategy is a strategic development with pertinence andcomprehensiveness, which includes the strategic objectives and means. According tothe analysis of the objectives, means, influences and challenges of India’s Asia-Pacificstrategy, we can predicate India’s future posture in the Asia-Pacific region. India’sAsia-Pacific strategic objectives have many aspects, including pursuing economicrising, strategic autonomy, balance of power and sea power etc. India’s Asia-Pacificstrategic means include bilateral diplomacy and multilateral diplomacy. The bilateral diplomacy mainly depends on the great powers in the Asia-Pacific, andsimultaneously considers the smaller nations. The multilateral diplomacy regards theAsia-Pacific multilateral organizations as the cardinal line, and in the meantimefocuses on the relative marginal multilateral organizations such as the Pacific IslandsForum. With the two means, India will have much more activity space and autonomy.India’s Asia-Pacific strategy will produce four aspect results. The first is to change thepower structure and composition in the Asia-Pacific region. The second is to promoteIndia’s strength and amplify India’s influences in the Asia-Pacific region. The third isto create a harmonious surrounding for India. The last is to make the situations aroundChina more complication. This thesis also considers that the major challenges of theimplementations of India’s Asia-Pacific strategy stem from the indoor andcircumjacent area. India’s turbulent situations, conflicts among the nations andreligions, and the uncertainties of relations between India and its surrounding nations,can force India to adjust strategic objectives and transfer strategic resources. Withregard to India’s future posture in the Asia-Pacific region, this thesis thinks that Indiawhich advocates regional peace, stability and prosperity can gain more welcome andacceptation from the Asia-Pacific countries.
     Finally, this thesis believes India’s Asia-Pacific strategy is the important part ofIndia’s world power strategy. The fundamental principle of India’s Asia-Pacificstrategy is “balanced diplomacy”. This principle will run through the whole process ofIndia’s Asia-Pacific strategy, until India becomes the real Asia-Pacific great powerand global power.
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    ①Brahma Chellaney,“Checkmate India”, The Pioneer, November15,2009.
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    ②“Test will level playing field,” Sunday Times of Sri Lanka, May17,1998.
    ①Deba Mohanty cited in Animesh Raoul,“India’s Missile Defense Dreams,” ISN Security Watch, March27,2008. http://www.isn.ethz.ch.
    ②Gurmeet Kanwal,“China’s Long March to World Power Status,” Strategic Analysis Vol.22, No.11,1999, pp.1720–1721.
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    ③Bharat Karnad,“China uses Pak, Vietnam open to India,” Express India, October3,2005.
    ①Gurpreet Khurana,“Joint Naval Exercises: A Post-Malabar-2007Appraisal for India,” Issue Brief (IPCS)No.52(2007), p.4
    ②“A ‘goodwill naval drill’?,” People’s Daily, April21,2007.
    ③“A ‘goodwill naval drill’?,” People’s Daily, April21,2007.
    ①印度驻华大使馆:“印中双边关系—经贸关系”,http://www.indianembassy.org.cn/Chinese/DynamicContentChinese.aspx?MenuId=3&SubMenuId=0
    ②Pallavi Aiyar,“Sino-Indian trade: growing concern,” The Hindu, August28,2007.
    ①Pankaj Jha,“Chinese Assertion Along the South Vietnamese Coast, Article (IPCS) No.2442, December12,2007.
    ①马孆:《当代印度外交》,上海人民出版社,2007年,第75页。
    ①冯绍雷:《20世纪的俄罗斯》,北京:生活·读书·新知三联书店,2007年,第210-214页。
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    ③Jayanta Kumar Ray,India’s Foreign Relations,1947-2007, London and New York: Routledge,2011,p.548.
    ①Jayanta Kumar Ray,India’s Foreign Relations,1947-2007, London and New York: Routledge,2011,p.549.
    ①MEA,“Bilateral Relations between India and the Russian Federation”, Central and East European Division,Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, November28,2002.
    ①P. Stobdan, India-Russia Strategic Partnership: Common Perspectives, New Delhi: Institute for DefenceStudies and Analyses,2010, pp.131-154.
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    ②Amit Baruah,“India, Russia plan big oil-gas deals”, The Hindu, November14,2004,http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/2004/11/14/stories/2004111405920100.htm.
    ①Condoleezza Rice,“Our Opportunity with India”, The Washington Post, March13,2006, p. A15.
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    ②Prakash Nanda, Rediscovering Asia: The Evolution of India’s Look East Policy, New Delhi: LancerPublishers and Distributors,2003, pp.236-237.
    ①Hiroshi Hirabayashi,“The Directions of Japan’s Foreign Policy”, in K. V. Kesavan (Ed.), Building a GlobalPartnership: Fifty Years of Indo-Japanese Relations,New Delhi: Lancer’s Books,2002, p.28.
    ②S. Jaishankar,“India-Japan Relations after Pokharan II”, Seminar.http://www.india-seminar.com/2000/487/487%20jaishankar.htm.
    ③Hiroshi Hirabayashi,“The Directions of Japan’s Foreign Policy”, in K. V. Kesavan (Ed.), Building a GlobalPartnership: Fifty Years of Indo-Japanese Relations,New Delhi: Lancer’s Books,2002, p.26.
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    ②Takenori Horimoto,“Japanese Premier Noda’s India trip part of Japan’s strategy to contain China”,The Economic Times, December28,2011.
    ①Michael J. Green,“Asia in the Debate on American Grand Strategy”, Naval War College Review, Winter2009.http://www.usnwc.edu/Publications/Naval-War-College-Review/2009---Winter.aspx, pp.23–24.
    ②Sumit Ganguly,“The Rise of India in Asia”, in David Shambaugh&Michael Yahuda (Eds.), InternationalRelations of Asia,Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc.,2008, p.164.
    ③Stephen Cohen, India: Emerging Power,Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution,2001, p.259.
    ①Joseph S. Nye, Jr.,“An Alliance Larger Than One Issue”, The New York Times, January7,2010.
    ②Joint statement of the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee, Washington D.C., June21,2011.http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2011/06/166597.htm.
    ③C. Raja Mohan,“Is India an East Asian Power? Explaining New Delhi’s Security Politics in the WesternPacific”, ISAS Working Paper No.81, August11,2009.
    ④Planning Commission, Government of India, Draft Report of the Expert Committee on Integrated Energy
    ①Ministry of Foreign Affairs(Japan),“Public Opinion Poll on Japan in India”, May2009,http://www.mofa.go.jp/ICSFiles/afieldfile/2009/05/08/E.pdf.
    ①P.V. Narasimharao,12th Singapore Lecture, ISEAS, Singapore,1994.
    ②Text of Singapore Lecture in2002. http://www.asean.org/2835.htm.
    ①Malla VSV Prasad,“Political and Security Cooperation between India and ASEAN,” in Kumar, Sen andMukul Asher (eds.), India-ASEAN Economic Relations: Meeting the Challenges of Globalizatoin. Singapore:Institute of Southeast Asian Countries,2006, p.270.
    ②AB Vajpayee,“India’s Perspectives on ASEAN and the Asia Pacific Region,” India’s Ministry of ExternalAffairs, April9,2002, http://www.mea.gov.in/sshome.htm.
    ③Government of India Ministry of Commerce&Industry Department of commerce, Export&Import TadeStatistics(EXCEL), http://commerce.nic.in/eidb/default.asp.
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    ②“India at a Glance”, World Bank (2009), www.devdata.worldbank.org/AAG/ind_aag.pdf.
    ③“International Trade Statistics2010”, World Trade Organization,www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2010_e/its10_toc_e.htm.
    ④United Nations, Population Division, http://esa.un.org.
    ⑤“Tourism Statistics”, ASEAN Secretariat, www.aseansec.org/stat/Table29.pdf.
    ①Rajiv Sikri, Challenge and Strategy: Rethinking India’s Foreign Policy,New Delhi: Sage Publications Ltd,2009, p.73.
    ②Ibid.p.119.
    ③Man Mohini Kaul,‘Regional Groupings: an Overview of BIMSTEC and MGC’, in South Asian Survey,Vol.13,no.2,2006, p.136.
    ①Nagesh Kumar,“India in21st Century Asia-Pacifi”’, in Y. Yagama Reddy (ed.), Merging India in Asia-Pacific,New Century Publications,2007, p.11.
    ①Stephen Blank,“India Joins the Great Game: Indian Strategy in Central Asia”, in Indranil Banerjee (ed.),India and Central Asia, Brunel Academic Publishers, Ltd., UK,2004, p.262
    ②Stephen Blank,“India Joins the Great Game: Indian Strategy in Central Asia”, in Indranil Banerjee (ed.),India and Central Asia, Brunel Academic Publishers, Ltd., UK,2004, p.264
    ①Inglof Kiesow and Nicklas Norling.“The Rise of India: Problems and Opportunities” Silk Road Papers,January2007. p.86.
    ②“Central Asia’s Energy Risks” Asia Report No.133,24May2007. International Crisis Group, Bishkek. P.12
    ③Inglof Kiesow and Nicklas Norling.“The Rise of India: Problems and Opportunities” Silk Road Papers,January2007. p.86
    ④“India-Central Asia Economic Relations: A Report of the RIS/CII Summit”, RIS-DP#94/2005, May2005,
    New Delhi. p.16
    ①Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (-India) Natural Gas Pipeline Project.http://meaindia.nic.in/srec/internalpages/tapi.pdf
    ②Stephen Blank,“India’s Rising Profile in Central Asia”, Comparative Strategy,22:2. April2003, p.141.
    ③Stephen Blank,“India’s Rising Profile in Central Asia”, April2003. Comparative Strategy,22:2,pp.143-151.
    ①Bhanoji Rao,‘Does APEC membership really matter for India?’ The Hindu Business Line January23,2007.
    ②Sudhir Deware, India and Southeast Asia: Towards Security Convergence, Singapore: ISEASPublications,2006, p.152.
    ③Mukul G. Asher and Rahul Sen,‘India’s Membership: APEC’s Relevance’, Faculty Working Papers (2007),Lee Kuan Yew University School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore,www.spp.nus.edu.sg/Handler.ashx?path=Data/Site/SiteDocuments/wp/wp0707.pdf.
    ①Nagesh Kumar,‘India’s Economic Engagement with East Asia: Trends and Prospects’, in K. Kesavapany,A. Mani and P. Ramasamy (eds.), Rising India and Indian Communities in East Asia, Singapore: ISEAS,2008,p.119.
    ①中华人民共和国商务部:“韩印度全面经济合作协定生效,韩国内生产规模有望增加39亿美元” http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/i/jyjl/j/201001/20100106729521.html
    ②Unitied Nations Conference on Trade and Development,‘Work Investment Report’(2007)(pdf),http://www.UNCTAD.org/wir.
    ③Rajan Jha,‘Recent Technical Advancements in India-Korea Trade, Research and Development’, in SushilaNarsimhan and Kim Do Young (eds.), India and Korea: Bridging the Gaps (New Delhi: Manak Publications,2008), p.143
    ④Jung Sung-ki,‘S.Korea, India to Hold Joint Military Drills’, The Korea Herald, March20,2007.
    ⑤Stokholm International Peace Research Institure, SIPRI Arms Transfers Database,http://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers.
    ①‘S.Korea’s Defence Export Reach$1.1.Billon’, DefenseNews.con, November5,2007.
    ②Stokholm International Peace Research Institure, SIPRI Military Expenditure Database,http://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers.
    ③‘India’s Military Imports to Hit$30Usb: Study’, Business Times Singapore, May15,2007.
    ①Meg. Gurry, Leadership and bilateral relations: Menzies and Nehru, Australia and India,1949–1964.Pacific Affairs,65(4, Winter),1992–1993, p.522.
    ②Alison. Broinowski, Orange juice or Great Western: Indian and Australian mutual perceptions in the1940sand1950s. South Asia,23,2000, pp.75–92.
    ③Marika.Vicziany, Australia-India security dialogues: Academic leadership in the diplomatic vacuum., SouthAsia,23(Special Issue),2000, pp.161-162.
    ④Vibhanshu.Shekhar, Crisis of Australian multiculturalism. Economic and Political Weekly,44(52,26November),2009, pp.19–21.
    ①Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade., Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra,July2009, http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/jfadt/india2006/report/report.pdf
    ②Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation during Visit of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Ministry of ExternalAffairs, Government of India, New Delhi, November12,2009,http://meaindia.nic.in/mystart.php?id=530515310.
    ③Indian High Commission in Australia. Bilateral economic relations.http://www.hcindia-au.org/bilateral_economic_relation.html.
    ①Indian High Commission in Australia. Bilateral economic relations.http://www.hcindia-au.org/bilateral_economic_relation.html
    ②G.Srinivasan, Australia keen on comprehensive free trade pact. The Hindu Business Line, November5,2008.
    ③David.Scott, The great power ‘great game’ between India and China:‘The logic of geography’.Geopolitics,13(1),2008, pp.4–11.
    ①Defence White Paper, Defending Australia in the Asia-Pacific century: Force2030, Department of Australia,Commonwealth of Australia,2009,http://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/docs/defence_white_paper_2009.pdf.
    ①Yashwant Sinha,‘Resurgent India in Asia’, Speech by Indian External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha atHarvard University,Cambridge, September29,2003, http://meaindia.nic.in/.
    ①Sekhar Bandyopadhyay,“India and New Zealand: A sixty-year roller coaster,” New ZealandInternational Review, New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, no.2. July2007, pp.39-65.
    ②New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs&Trade,‘Republic of India’,www.mfat.govt.nz/Countries/Asia-South-and-Southeast/India.php#facts.
    ③“Good progress towards India–New Zealand Free Trade Agreement,”http://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/good+progress+towards+india+%E2%80%93+new+zealand+free+trade+agreement.
    ①“India, New Zealand to initiate free trade pact,”http://www.bilaterals.org/article.php3?id_article=8374.
    ②Phil Goff, Speech to the India–New Zealand Business Council, October24,2007,http://beehive.govt.nz/speech/speech+india+%E2%80%93+new+zealand+business+council
    ③“India-New Zealand Connection,” May29,2007http://www.investmentnz.govt.nz/section/14237/17173.aspx.
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    ①Prakash Nanda, Rediscovering Asia: Evolution of India’s Look-East Policy, New Delhi: Lancer Publishers&Distributors,2003, pp.19-20.
    ②Frédéric Grare,“In Search of a Role: India and the ASEAN Regional Forum,” in Frédéric Grare andAmitabh Mattoo eds., India and ASEAN: The Politics of India's Look East Policy, University of Michigan:Manohar,2001, p.135.
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    ②“Commanding Heights: An Interview with Manmohan Singh,” PBS, February6,2001,http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/int_manmohansingh.html.
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    ②South Asia Terrorism Portal,“Jammu and Kashmir backgrounder”,http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/jandk/backgrounder/index.html
    ①Siddharth Varadarajan,“Time to end the impasse with Pakistan”, The Hindu, April26,2010.
    ②C. Raja Mohan,“Balancing act in Thimphu”, Indian Express, April28,2010.
    ③Vikram Sood,“India and regional security interests”, in Alyssa Ayres and C. Raja Mohan, eds, Powerrealignments in Asia: China, India, and the United States,New Delhi: Sage,2009, p.261.
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