影响黄土高原半干旱区农户舍饲养羊采纳行为的社会经济因素分析
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摘要
本文运用生态经济学、计量经济学、区域经济学和新制度经济学的理论与方法,从农户微观经济主体追求最大经营效益的角度,以2007年和2011年分别在黄土高原半干旱区甘肃省兰州市榆中县北山中连川乡、定西市安定区鲁家沟镇、白银市靖远县乌兰镇红嘴村和山西省忻州市神池县长畛乡对765户农户进行的随机入户调查数据为依据,对黄土高原半干旱区影响农户舍饲养羊采纳行为的相关社会经济因素进行了综合分析,从中确定了关键性的影响变量,为黄土高原半干旱区实现经济结构多元化,增强可持续发展能力提供微观理论支持。结论与建议如下：
舍饲养羊在黄土高原半干旱区各地的推广实施分处初始、扩展、普及和成熟四个前后相续的不同阶段。
妇女多而学龄前、学龄中儿童少的农户更愿意采纳舍饲养羊。黄土高原半干旱区大量青壮年男劳动力外出寻找非农就业机会,妇女留守在家成为农业生产的主力军,这种人口结构总体看适合舍饲养羊的推广实行。
产粮多的农户采用舍饲养羊的可能大,每年有大量马铃薯销售的农户接受舍饲养羊的可能小。改变不恰当的过度单一马铃薯耕作模式有助于作物家畜综合生产系统的可持续性。
在舍饲圈养养殖业尚处于初始阶段的地区,农户从事包括紫花苜蓿在内的豆科饲草种植是其接受舍饲养羊的显著促进因素;在舍饲养羊处于扩展阶段的地区,随着羊群规模的扩大,饲料缺口逐渐拉大,由于紫花苜蓿在一年生长期内产生的地上生物量非常显著地低于玉米、小麦等谷类作物,因此此时单纯在更大规模上退耕种草并无助于这一问题的解决,研究显示,这些地区紫花苜蓿种植与农户是否接受舍饲养羊间缺乏显著关联。改进耕作制度,提高作物单产,广泛实施粮食作物与豆科饲草的轮作间作,为紫花苜蓿种植开辟足够或更多的空间,是黄土高原半干旱区在保护退耕成果的基础上突破饲料瓶颈,普及舍饲养羊的重要环节。
有较长养羊经历的农户更可能采用舍饲养羊,农技推广人员一般可以改善农户对待舍饲养羊的态度。制定适当的政策鼓励文化程度高的乡村年青人专心务农参与舍饲养羊、建立畅通的羊只市场渠道,黄土高原半干旱区舍饲养羊的普及程度还可进一步提高。
本文定量测算了调查区农户销售羊只和马铃薯这两种主要产品时搜寻交易信息的机会成本,结果显示羊只销售的信息交易成本远大于马铃薯,揭示信息交易成本是阻碍舍饲养羊经济效益充分发挥的重要影响因素。不成熟、不完善的市场环境是产生这一结果的主要原因,两种产品不同的品质特性、周边区域经济发展特点也与这一现象的发生存在较为密切的关系。
本文认为,养殖农户组织起来,形成必要的生产规模,实现向社会化大生产的组织形式转变,是黄土高原半干旱区克服交易成本障碍,推动舍饲养羊更大发展的必要前提。公司+合作社+农户模式是保障舍饲养羊农户经济利益,实现本地生产生态双赢的较适宜的养殖户经济组织途径。
With the theoretical analysis of ecological economics, econometrics, regional economics, new institutional economics, and the quantitative analysis, in view of the optimum effect for a farmer household to be a micro-economic individual, based on a survey of765farmer's families in four typical regions, the paper evaluates the determinants of farmers'decisions to adopt raising sheep in folds (RSFs) in the semiarid Loess Plateau of China. The paper selects key variables in order to provide micro-theoretical support for achieving the economic diversification and sustainable development in the semiarid areas. Some concludes and suggestions are as follows:
RSFs would be popularized through four stage:beginning, development, popularization and matureness in succession, among the farm households in the semiarid Loess Plateau.
The families with more adult female members and less children were more likely to adopt RSFs. The results showed that RSFs were very consistent with the demographics of farming families in the semiarid Loess Plateau, in which there were more adult women who stayed home to do farmwork while hundreds of millions of adult men moved from rural areas to urban areas in search of a better life.
Households with higher grain yields were more likely to adopt RSFs. In contrast, farmers who sold more potatoes were less likely to adopt RSFs. Alternative cropping patterns to impose restrictions on the unsustainable expansion of potato cultivation areas were contribute to improve the sustainability of crop livestock farming systems
In the areas where RSFswould be in its beginning stage, the total cultivated area of various leguminous forage grasses, including alfalfa is positively related to the adoption of RSFs. In the areas where RSFs would be in its development stage, this pasture can no longer carry such a large number of sheep, so short forage already become a bottleneck for RSFs. Because the annual average aboveground biomass of alfalfa was significantly lower than that of cereal crops such as maize and wheat, it is not helpful for adequate supplies of forage to further develop the "Grain for Green", the cultivated area of leguminous forage grasses was not correlated with farmers' adoption of RSFs. The key link for popularization of RSFs among the farm households in the semiarid Loess Plateau would be to increase crop yield and to establish farming systems that rotate or intercrop cereal crops and leguminous forage grass integrated with RSFs.
The analysis showed that farmers with more experience raising sheep or goats were more likely to adopt RSFs. The probability of adopting RSFs was higher for farmers who have contact with extension agencies working on animal husbandry technologies. Adoption of RSFs could be further promoted through the development of alternative policies encouraging rural youths with more education to shift labor allocation in favor of farm production and the founding of smooth marketing channels.
The paper measures information transaction costs resulted from marketing sheep and potatoes in small-scale farmers in the study areas, respectively, and draw a conclusion that farmers faced higher transaction costs for marketing sheep than marketing potatoes, indicating that high transaction costs were among key factors affecting the benefits derived from RSFs to producers. Imperfect sheep markets are considered to be responsible for the difference.
This paper suggested that establishing rural economic organization is helpful to reduce the transaction costs and promote the adoption of RSFs. Company+cooperative+farmers can be a more appropriate mode of economic organization of farmers to protect the economic interests of the productioner of RSFs and achieve economic development and eco-environmental improvement simultaneously.
舍饲养羊在黄土高原半干旱区各地的推广实施分处初始、扩展、普及和成熟四个前后相续的不同阶段。
妇女多而学龄前、学龄中儿童少的农户更愿意采纳舍饲养羊。黄土高原半干旱区大量青壮年男劳动力外出寻找非农就业机会,妇女留守在家成为农业生产的主力军,这种人口结构总体看适合舍饲养羊的推广实行。
产粮多的农户采用舍饲养羊的可能大,每年有大量马铃薯销售的农户接受舍饲养羊的可能小。改变不恰当的过度单一马铃薯耕作模式有助于作物家畜综合生产系统的可持续性。
在舍饲圈养养殖业尚处于初始阶段的地区,农户从事包括紫花苜蓿在内的豆科饲草种植是其接受舍饲养羊的显著促进因素;在舍饲养羊处于扩展阶段的地区,随着羊群规模的扩大,饲料缺口逐渐拉大,由于紫花苜蓿在一年生长期内产生的地上生物量非常显著地低于玉米、小麦等谷类作物,因此此时单纯在更大规模上退耕种草并无助于这一问题的解决,研究显示,这些地区紫花苜蓿种植与农户是否接受舍饲养羊间缺乏显著关联。改进耕作制度,提高作物单产,广泛实施粮食作物与豆科饲草的轮作间作,为紫花苜蓿种植开辟足够或更多的空间,是黄土高原半干旱区在保护退耕成果的基础上突破饲料瓶颈,普及舍饲养羊的重要环节。
有较长养羊经历的农户更可能采用舍饲养羊,农技推广人员一般可以改善农户对待舍饲养羊的态度。制定适当的政策鼓励文化程度高的乡村年青人专心务农参与舍饲养羊、建立畅通的羊只市场渠道,黄土高原半干旱区舍饲养羊的普及程度还可进一步提高。
本文定量测算了调查区农户销售羊只和马铃薯这两种主要产品时搜寻交易信息的机会成本,结果显示羊只销售的信息交易成本远大于马铃薯,揭示信息交易成本是阻碍舍饲养羊经济效益充分发挥的重要影响因素。不成熟、不完善的市场环境是产生这一结果的主要原因,两种产品不同的品质特性、周边区域经济发展特点也与这一现象的发生存在较为密切的关系。
本文认为,养殖农户组织起来,形成必要的生产规模,实现向社会化大生产的组织形式转变,是黄土高原半干旱区克服交易成本障碍,推动舍饲养羊更大发展的必要前提。公司+合作社+农户模式是保障舍饲养羊农户经济利益,实现本地生产生态双赢的较适宜的养殖户经济组织途径。
With the theoretical analysis of ecological economics, econometrics, regional economics, new institutional economics, and the quantitative analysis, in view of the optimum effect for a farmer household to be a micro-economic individual, based on a survey of765farmer's families in four typical regions, the paper evaluates the determinants of farmers'decisions to adopt raising sheep in folds (RSFs) in the semiarid Loess Plateau of China. The paper selects key variables in order to provide micro-theoretical support for achieving the economic diversification and sustainable development in the semiarid areas. Some concludes and suggestions are as follows:
RSFs would be popularized through four stage:beginning, development, popularization and matureness in succession, among the farm households in the semiarid Loess Plateau.
The families with more adult female members and less children were more likely to adopt RSFs. The results showed that RSFs were very consistent with the demographics of farming families in the semiarid Loess Plateau, in which there were more adult women who stayed home to do farmwork while hundreds of millions of adult men moved from rural areas to urban areas in search of a better life.
Households with higher grain yields were more likely to adopt RSFs. In contrast, farmers who sold more potatoes were less likely to adopt RSFs. Alternative cropping patterns to impose restrictions on the unsustainable expansion of potato cultivation areas were contribute to improve the sustainability of crop livestock farming systems
In the areas where RSFswould be in its beginning stage, the total cultivated area of various leguminous forage grasses, including alfalfa is positively related to the adoption of RSFs. In the areas where RSFs would be in its development stage, this pasture can no longer carry such a large number of sheep, so short forage already become a bottleneck for RSFs. Because the annual average aboveground biomass of alfalfa was significantly lower than that of cereal crops such as maize and wheat, it is not helpful for adequate supplies of forage to further develop the "Grain for Green", the cultivated area of leguminous forage grasses was not correlated with farmers' adoption of RSFs. The key link for popularization of RSFs among the farm households in the semiarid Loess Plateau would be to increase crop yield and to establish farming systems that rotate or intercrop cereal crops and leguminous forage grass integrated with RSFs.
The analysis showed that farmers with more experience raising sheep or goats were more likely to adopt RSFs. The probability of adopting RSFs was higher for farmers who have contact with extension agencies working on animal husbandry technologies. Adoption of RSFs could be further promoted through the development of alternative policies encouraging rural youths with more education to shift labor allocation in favor of farm production and the founding of smooth marketing channels.
The paper measures information transaction costs resulted from marketing sheep and potatoes in small-scale farmers in the study areas, respectively, and draw a conclusion that farmers faced higher transaction costs for marketing sheep than marketing potatoes, indicating that high transaction costs were among key factors affecting the benefits derived from RSFs to producers. Imperfect sheep markets are considered to be responsible for the difference.
This paper suggested that establishing rural economic organization is helpful to reduce the transaction costs and promote the adoption of RSFs. Company+cooperative+farmers can be a more appropriate mode of economic organization of farmers to protect the economic interests of the productioner of RSFs and achieve economic development and eco-environmental improvement simultaneously.
引文
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