青藏高原水资源时空变化特征的研究
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摘要
气候变暖及人类活动的加剧,影响了青藏高原上水资源的分配和变化。而空中水汽和云是高原陆地水资源的源、水循环中的活跃因子和影响气候变化的重要变量,了解其分布特征和时空变化,对深入探讨高原水资源的变化尤为重要。本文基于长时间序列的卫星遥感资料、再分析资料和地面观测资料,以高原气候变化为出发点,从降水、蒸发、水汽、云、积雪等几个方面分别分析了高原水资源的特征及变化,着重分析了空中水资源时空变化的特征,并结合高原水资源各个分量的研究结果初步探讨了区域气候变化对高原水资源的影响。研究结果表明,高原陆地水资源在不断流失,流失的主要途径有两个：(1)气温升高蒸发增强,水资源从空中流失；(2)气温升高使得冰雪融水增加,水资源从陆地上流失；且水资源的空中流失比陆地流失表现的更为明显。此外,大自然虽然具有自我调节能力,但这种调节能力是否能延缓高原水资源的流失还不容乐观。高原气候变化使得水资源流失,其各分量的时空变化具体表现如下：
高原平均气温在时间演变上大致可分为四个时段：两个相对低温时段(1901-1940,1960-1985)和两个相对高温时段(1940-1960,1985-2011)。平均气温呈现先缓慢增加、后缓慢减小、再快速增加的趋势,整体表现为增温趋势,增温速率约为0.8℃/100a。气温的区域变化则表现为西北部增温强、东南部增温弱。平均最高气温和最低气温的年际变化趋势与平均气温相似,且最低气温的增温速率比最高气温快,使得日较差的年平均时间序列整体呈现明显下降趋势。三种气温对海拔高度都有依赖性,最低气温依赖度最高。
高原降水和蒸发的时空变化表现为,从1901-2011年,高原降水增加区域是减少区域的近2倍,但增加的速率却没有减少速率高,喜马拉雅山区域降水减少最明显,其减少速率大于-3mm/a。就整体而言,平均降水随时间呈现弱的增加的趋势。从1965-2011年,高原大部分区域蒸发皿蒸发量都为减小趋势,符合“蒸发互补”理论,并由经验公式所得高原实际蒸发的变化进一步验证了这一现象。自80年代高原明显增温以来,实际蒸发增加趋势也明显增强,而降水和蒸发的差值表现为弱的减小趋势。
高原680-310hPa大气可降水量最大值出现在高原东南角,约10mm；其次是沿喜马拉雅山、祁连山及高原南侧,约5-7mm；最小值在高原中部。高原夏季大气可降水量最多,其次是秋季、春季,冬季最小。1984-2009年,在680-310hPa层,高原大气可降水量相比亚洲其他区域增加趋势明显,从其中心到四周增幅依次减弱,中部可降水量增速最快,最大值达2.4mm/10a,近十年增加了约平均值的1/2,与高原中部降水增加边缘季风区降水减少相一致。虽然高原大气可降水量增加,但高原反而变干,增加的水汽并没有储存,使得水资源从空中流失,高原快速增温引起实际蒸发增强是最可能的原因。
1984-2009年,总云量的年平均在高原西北部帕米尔高原区域、高原东南部以及高原的东侧为高值中心,总云量的季节分布与高原地形及水汽输送有很大关系。高原上云的辐射强迫始终为负值,从西部到东部逐步增强。高原总云量整体为减少趋势,白天,卷云几乎覆盖整个高原,且变化最强烈,表现为明显的减小趋势,其次是深对流云,分布在高原的西北部和东南大部,呈明显增加趋势,深对流云的增加使降水增加的概率增大,是对水资源从空中流失的一种微调节。云总的光学厚度、云水路径及云顶气温均成增加趋势,云顶温度的减少和高云的减少相一致。这些云特性的变化,对区域气候是一种负反馈。
高原上的积雪1978.10-1987.8期间呈缓慢的增长趋势,1987.7-2008.6期间呈平缓的减少趋势,从2000.3到2012.3没有明显的变化。就区域变化而言,高原上积雪表现为增加趋势和减小趋势并存。高原上冰川自1980s以来呈现全面退缩的状态,且退缩速率在逐渐加剧,气温升高是唯一能够合理解释该现象的因素。降水是影响高原外流径流的主要因素。高原外流径流量并没有随着气温的增加而增加,可能是由于流域内气温的升高导致了蒸发增加抵消了降水增加的水文效应所致,而部分流域春季径流却有增加的趋势,由气温升高引起冰雪融水增加的可能性较大,也是水资源流失的另一途径。
就目前高原气候变化的情况来看,高原仍然处在一个升温的状态,在未来的几年内没有明显的转向迹象,高原水资源依然会不断流失。应对高原水资源流失最有效的方法仍然是有效合理规划现有的水资源,并努力以人力影响空中水资源时空分配以延缓流失。在影响高原空中水汽资源的诸多因子中,蒸发在其中占很重要的作用,气温、日照时数、风速均对高原上的蒸发有显著影响,且影响因子排序为：气温>风速>日照时数。此外,高原春夏季沙尘气溶胶近年来呈现下降趋势,且它和降水呈现明显的负相关,是对高原水资源空中流失的又一微调节。
Climate warming and intensification of human activities will influence the allocation and variation of water resources over the Tibetan Plateau. The water vapor and cloud, as the source of the land water resources, are active factors in the water cycle and important variables of climate change. Therefore, it is beneficial to investigate their distribution, temporal and spatial variation for deep understanding of water resource change in this region. Based on long-term series of satellite remote sensing data, reanalysis data and surface observation data, this article analyzes regional climate change firstly, and then analyzes the characters and change of water resource distribution, especially the air water resource from different aspects, such as precipitation, evaporation, water vapor, cloud, ice glacier and snow. Finally, combining the above results, this paper discussed the impact of climate change on water resources over the Tibetan Plateau. All the results show that land water resource of the plateau lost in two ways:(1) loss from the air due to enhanced evaporation with rising temperature;(2) loss from the land for increased melt water with rising temperature. And the former is more obvious than the latter. According to results, we also found the nature has the ability of self-adjustment, however, we should not be optimistic on whether it can delay the loss of the water resource on plateau. The details of these results are as following:
The time evolution of average temperature can be divided into four periods:two low temperature periods (1901-1940;1960-1985), two high temperature periods (1940-1960;1985-2011). The average temperature trend is first slow increasing followed by slow decreasing and rapid increasing. As for the whole Tibetan Plateau, it shows a slowly increasing trend at a rate of0.8℃/100a. As the spatial distribution, the warming trend in northwest area is higher than that in southeast area. The annual variations of average maximum and minimum temperature have the similar trend as average temperature variation, but the warming rate of minimum temperature is greater than that of the maximum, which leads to an overall downward trend of daily temperature range. These three temperature parameters, in particular the minimum temperature, are dependent on the altitude.
The temporal and spatial variation of precipitation and evaporation is also investigated. The area of increasing precipitation is almost twice the decreasing area, but the increasing ratio is lower than the decreasing ratio. Precipitation in the Himalayan region decreased most significantly, at the rate of-3mm/a or above. Overall, average precipitation shows a weakly increasing trend. From1965to2011, pan evaporation shows a downward trend in most area, and it is in accordance with the'evaporation complementary' theory, which is further proved by the trend of actual evaporation calculated via empirical formula. Furthermore, the actual evaporation shows an obviously increasing trend, and the value of precipitation minus evaporation shows a slowly decreasing trend from1980s.
In680-310hPa layer, The maximum PW appears in the southeast corner of the plateau, it is about10mm, accounting for the half of water vapor in the entire troposphere; along the Himalayas, Qilian Mountains, south of the plateau is the second largest value of the PW, it is about5-7mm; the minimum PW is still in the central of the plateau. For the season, summer has the most PW, followed by fall, spring and winter. In the layer, the highest positive trend occurred over the central region of the Tibetan Plateau, where the maximum increase was as much as2.4mm/10a, approximately half of the PW over the plateau. This result is constist with the trend of precipitation. The farther from the center of the plateau an area was, the lower the positive trend was. The PW over the Tibetan Plateau has been increasing, but the surface of the plateau is getting drier, the increased water vapor was not stored. The stronger evaporation caused by the rapid warming is the most possible reason, which means the water resource has been lost through the air.
From1984to2009, the maximum total cloud amount is at Pamirs, southeast of the Plateau and by the eastern of the Plateau. The seasonal distribution of cloud amount is relative with topography and transportation of vapor over the Tiebtan Plateau. The total cloud amount had a decreasing trend. During the day, cirrus is the majority, almost covered the whole plateau; deep convective cloud are the second, mainly distributes in the southeast and northwest of the plateau. Cirrus decrease rapidly, and deep convective cloud shows an obvious increasing trend, Deep convective clouds increase may lead to enhancing the probability of precipitation, which may be a micro-adjustment for the loss of water resources in the air. The cloud optical thickness, cloud water path and cloud top temperature are all increasing. The decreased high cloud leads to the change of cloud top temperature. The change of all these cloud parameters is a negative feedback to the regional climate.
The snow on the Tibetan shows a slow increasing trend from Oct.,1978to Aug.,1987, and a decreasing trend from Jul.,1987to Jun.,2008. But there is no clear change during Mar.,2000to Mar.,2012. For the snow regional variations, the Tibetan not only has the increasing trend but also has the decreasing trend. The Tibetan's glaciers have retreated since1980s with gradually increasing rate, for which the only reasonable explanation is the accelerated warming. Precipitation is the main factor affecting drain runoff over the Tibetan. The drain runoff does not increase with the Tibetan warming, which is probably because the increasing rate of the evaporation is faster than the precipitation. But some of the drain runoff showing an increasing trend over the Tibetan in spring, as another way of water resources loss, is probably due to the increasing melt water caused by Tibetan warming.
According to the present situation of climate change over the Tibetan, the Tibetan is still getting warmer, and has no obvious signs of a phase transition in the next few years, so the water resource over the Tibetan will continue to lose. The first and most effective way to deal with the losing is making effective and rational plans to use the existing water resources; the second way is to try our best to influence the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in the air in order to delay the loss. The evaporation, the most important factor affecting the water resources in the air, is significantly related to the air temperature the most followed by wind speed and sunshine hours. In addition, the dust aerosol in spring and summer over the Tibetan shows a downward trend in these years, and has a significant negative correlation with the precipitation, which is another micro-adjustment for the loss of water resources in the air.
高原平均气温在时间演变上大致可分为四个时段：两个相对低温时段(1901-1940,1960-1985)和两个相对高温时段(1940-1960,1985-2011)。平均气温呈现先缓慢增加、后缓慢减小、再快速增加的趋势,整体表现为增温趋势,增温速率约为0.8℃/100a。气温的区域变化则表现为西北部增温强、东南部增温弱。平均最高气温和最低气温的年际变化趋势与平均气温相似,且最低气温的增温速率比最高气温快,使得日较差的年平均时间序列整体呈现明显下降趋势。三种气温对海拔高度都有依赖性,最低气温依赖度最高。
高原降水和蒸发的时空变化表现为,从1901-2011年,高原降水增加区域是减少区域的近2倍,但增加的速率却没有减少速率高,喜马拉雅山区域降水减少最明显,其减少速率大于-3mm/a。就整体而言,平均降水随时间呈现弱的增加的趋势。从1965-2011年,高原大部分区域蒸发皿蒸发量都为减小趋势,符合“蒸发互补”理论,并由经验公式所得高原实际蒸发的变化进一步验证了这一现象。自80年代高原明显增温以来,实际蒸发增加趋势也明显增强,而降水和蒸发的差值表现为弱的减小趋势。
高原680-310hPa大气可降水量最大值出现在高原东南角,约10mm；其次是沿喜马拉雅山、祁连山及高原南侧,约5-7mm；最小值在高原中部。高原夏季大气可降水量最多,其次是秋季、春季,冬季最小。1984-2009年,在680-310hPa层,高原大气可降水量相比亚洲其他区域增加趋势明显,从其中心到四周增幅依次减弱,中部可降水量增速最快,最大值达2.4mm/10a,近十年增加了约平均值的1/2,与高原中部降水增加边缘季风区降水减少相一致。虽然高原大气可降水量增加,但高原反而变干,增加的水汽并没有储存,使得水资源从空中流失,高原快速增温引起实际蒸发增强是最可能的原因。
1984-2009年,总云量的年平均在高原西北部帕米尔高原区域、高原东南部以及高原的东侧为高值中心,总云量的季节分布与高原地形及水汽输送有很大关系。高原上云的辐射强迫始终为负值,从西部到东部逐步增强。高原总云量整体为减少趋势,白天,卷云几乎覆盖整个高原,且变化最强烈,表现为明显的减小趋势,其次是深对流云,分布在高原的西北部和东南大部,呈明显增加趋势,深对流云的增加使降水增加的概率增大,是对水资源从空中流失的一种微调节。云总的光学厚度、云水路径及云顶气温均成增加趋势,云顶温度的减少和高云的减少相一致。这些云特性的变化,对区域气候是一种负反馈。
高原上的积雪1978.10-1987.8期间呈缓慢的增长趋势,1987.7-2008.6期间呈平缓的减少趋势,从2000.3到2012.3没有明显的变化。就区域变化而言,高原上积雪表现为增加趋势和减小趋势并存。高原上冰川自1980s以来呈现全面退缩的状态,且退缩速率在逐渐加剧,气温升高是唯一能够合理解释该现象的因素。降水是影响高原外流径流的主要因素。高原外流径流量并没有随着气温的增加而增加,可能是由于流域内气温的升高导致了蒸发增加抵消了降水增加的水文效应所致,而部分流域春季径流却有增加的趋势,由气温升高引起冰雪融水增加的可能性较大,也是水资源流失的另一途径。
就目前高原气候变化的情况来看,高原仍然处在一个升温的状态,在未来的几年内没有明显的转向迹象,高原水资源依然会不断流失。应对高原水资源流失最有效的方法仍然是有效合理规划现有的水资源,并努力以人力影响空中水资源时空分配以延缓流失。在影响高原空中水汽资源的诸多因子中,蒸发在其中占很重要的作用,气温、日照时数、风速均对高原上的蒸发有显著影响,且影响因子排序为：气温>风速>日照时数。此外,高原春夏季沙尘气溶胶近年来呈现下降趋势,且它和降水呈现明显的负相关,是对高原水资源空中流失的又一微调节。
Climate warming and intensification of human activities will influence the allocation and variation of water resources over the Tibetan Plateau. The water vapor and cloud, as the source of the land water resources, are active factors in the water cycle and important variables of climate change. Therefore, it is beneficial to investigate their distribution, temporal and spatial variation for deep understanding of water resource change in this region. Based on long-term series of satellite remote sensing data, reanalysis data and surface observation data, this article analyzes regional climate change firstly, and then analyzes the characters and change of water resource distribution, especially the air water resource from different aspects, such as precipitation, evaporation, water vapor, cloud, ice glacier and snow. Finally, combining the above results, this paper discussed the impact of climate change on water resources over the Tibetan Plateau. All the results show that land water resource of the plateau lost in two ways:(1) loss from the air due to enhanced evaporation with rising temperature;(2) loss from the land for increased melt water with rising temperature. And the former is more obvious than the latter. According to results, we also found the nature has the ability of self-adjustment, however, we should not be optimistic on whether it can delay the loss of the water resource on plateau. The details of these results are as following:
The time evolution of average temperature can be divided into four periods:two low temperature periods (1901-1940;1960-1985), two high temperature periods (1940-1960;1985-2011). The average temperature trend is first slow increasing followed by slow decreasing and rapid increasing. As for the whole Tibetan Plateau, it shows a slowly increasing trend at a rate of0.8℃/100a. As the spatial distribution, the warming trend in northwest area is higher than that in southeast area. The annual variations of average maximum and minimum temperature have the similar trend as average temperature variation, but the warming rate of minimum temperature is greater than that of the maximum, which leads to an overall downward trend of daily temperature range. These three temperature parameters, in particular the minimum temperature, are dependent on the altitude.
The temporal and spatial variation of precipitation and evaporation is also investigated. The area of increasing precipitation is almost twice the decreasing area, but the increasing ratio is lower than the decreasing ratio. Precipitation in the Himalayan region decreased most significantly, at the rate of-3mm/a or above. Overall, average precipitation shows a weakly increasing trend. From1965to2011, pan evaporation shows a downward trend in most area, and it is in accordance with the'evaporation complementary' theory, which is further proved by the trend of actual evaporation calculated via empirical formula. Furthermore, the actual evaporation shows an obviously increasing trend, and the value of precipitation minus evaporation shows a slowly decreasing trend from1980s.
In680-310hPa layer, The maximum PW appears in the southeast corner of the plateau, it is about10mm, accounting for the half of water vapor in the entire troposphere; along the Himalayas, Qilian Mountains, south of the plateau is the second largest value of the PW, it is about5-7mm; the minimum PW is still in the central of the plateau. For the season, summer has the most PW, followed by fall, spring and winter. In the layer, the highest positive trend occurred over the central region of the Tibetan Plateau, where the maximum increase was as much as2.4mm/10a, approximately half of the PW over the plateau. This result is constist with the trend of precipitation. The farther from the center of the plateau an area was, the lower the positive trend was. The PW over the Tibetan Plateau has been increasing, but the surface of the plateau is getting drier, the increased water vapor was not stored. The stronger evaporation caused by the rapid warming is the most possible reason, which means the water resource has been lost through the air.
From1984to2009, the maximum total cloud amount is at Pamirs, southeast of the Plateau and by the eastern of the Plateau. The seasonal distribution of cloud amount is relative with topography and transportation of vapor over the Tiebtan Plateau. The total cloud amount had a decreasing trend. During the day, cirrus is the majority, almost covered the whole plateau; deep convective cloud are the second, mainly distributes in the southeast and northwest of the plateau. Cirrus decrease rapidly, and deep convective cloud shows an obvious increasing trend, Deep convective clouds increase may lead to enhancing the probability of precipitation, which may be a micro-adjustment for the loss of water resources in the air. The cloud optical thickness, cloud water path and cloud top temperature are all increasing. The decreased high cloud leads to the change of cloud top temperature. The change of all these cloud parameters is a negative feedback to the regional climate.
The snow on the Tibetan shows a slow increasing trend from Oct.,1978to Aug.,1987, and a decreasing trend from Jul.,1987to Jun.,2008. But there is no clear change during Mar.,2000to Mar.,2012. For the snow regional variations, the Tibetan not only has the increasing trend but also has the decreasing trend. The Tibetan's glaciers have retreated since1980s with gradually increasing rate, for which the only reasonable explanation is the accelerated warming. Precipitation is the main factor affecting drain runoff over the Tibetan. The drain runoff does not increase with the Tibetan warming, which is probably because the increasing rate of the evaporation is faster than the precipitation. But some of the drain runoff showing an increasing trend over the Tibetan in spring, as another way of water resources loss, is probably due to the increasing melt water caused by Tibetan warming.
According to the present situation of climate change over the Tibetan, the Tibetan is still getting warmer, and has no obvious signs of a phase transition in the next few years, so the water resource over the Tibetan will continue to lose. The first and most effective way to deal with the losing is making effective and rational plans to use the existing water resources; the second way is to try our best to influence the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in the air in order to delay the loss. The evaporation, the most important factor affecting the water resources in the air, is significantly related to the air temperature the most followed by wind speed and sunshine hours. In addition, the dust aerosol in spring and summer over the Tibetan shows a downward trend in these years, and has a significant negative correlation with the precipitation, which is another micro-adjustment for the loss of water resources in the air.
引文
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