FDI来源地对我国碳排放的影响研究
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摘要
随着对外开放经济政策的确立与发展,我国FDI持续大幅度增长引起世界瞩目。2012年,中国实际利用外资金额达到1117.2亿美元。外资的进入对我国经济社会发展与现代化进程形成了广泛而深远的影响,同时又反过来促进政府制定更加优惠的外资政策以吸引更多的FDI,正是这种日益开放的投资环境与政策支持构成了FDI在我国的持续增长。然而,任何事物都有其两面性,FDI也是一把双刃剑,在其带来雄厚的资金、高新的技术以及先进的管理经验的同时也对东道国的能源环境造成不可忽视的危害与压力。
碳排放问题已经成为世界气候会议的主要议题之一,也成为关系到我们每一个人切身利益与长远利益的重要问题。我国政府已经承诺至2020年在2005年的基础上将碳强度减少40—45%,这种承诺不仅是一种任务,更是一种义务与使命。对我国FDI不同来源地的综合分析、对我国碳排放的重要影响及特征的深度探析,可为我国的外资政策与节能减排策略之间找寻适度的平衡提供一定的参考,并为我国构建外资与节能减排双向可持续发展战略指明方向。鉴于此,本文对如下问题展开研究：
通过考察我国改革开放以来吸收FDI概况,可以发现我国目前利用FDI呈现以下特征：第一,利用外资仍继续保持较大规模,但增长速度放缓。第二,从FDI的产业分布来看,FDI产业分布不均衡,但产业结构逐步优化。外商投资于第二产业的比重最大,第二产业尤其是制造业仍是外商投资的主要领域。第三,FDI地区分布不均衡。我国东中西部地区吸收FDI的数量和规模差距很大,外商投资高度集中于东部地区,我国利用外资在区位上呈现从南到北、由东到西逐渐推进的趋势。
本文探讨了我国主要FDI来源地的特点和差异,将FDI不同来源地划分为港澳台地区、日韩新(即日本、韩国和新加坡)、美加(美国和加拿大)和英法德(英国、法国和德国)四种类型：港澳台地区作为我国的一部分与大陆发生外贸关系；日韩新等代表通过引进西方发达国家的技术不断模仿创新而成功的东亚国家；美加代表来源于北美地区的外资；英法德作为欧盟的代表,作为第四种外资来源地。本文在此基础上分析了我国FDI不同来源地的结构、成因及影响。
本文运用时间序列模型分析方法,对我国1997—2011年来源于不同国家的外资和碳排放之间关系进行了实证检验,结果发现不同来源地FDI对我国碳排放的影响程度存在显著差异：来自于英法德三国外资对于我国碳排放的影响是正面的,可能在于英法德作为全球经济、技术最发达的国家,其对华投资结构也日趋高级化；来源于美加的FDI对我国碳排放也产生积极影响,可能在于来自美国的跨国企业比较重视长期的战略发展,对核心技术的转移和研发中心的建立持积极开放的态度；来源于日韩新三地FDI对我国碳排放产生消极影响,可能在于这些外商规模不是很大,主要投向劳动密集型的制造业,研发水平不如欧美,对华技术溢出效应效果有限；来自港澳台地区的投资没能对我国大陆碳排放产生正面影响,港澳台地区的投资一般以出口导向型为主,技术水平不高、附加值偏低,主要利用的是我国大陆低廉的劳动力、自然资源和宽松的环境规制。
最后,在深入研究FDI不同来源地对我国碳排放影响的基础上,从而为我国的外资政策与节能减排策略之间找寻适度的平衡方面提出有针对的政策建议,如优化FDI来源结构,提高引资质量；促进产业升级,发挥减排结构效应；实施新能源战略,提高能源效率；加大环境管制,提高准入门槛。
With the establishment and development of China's opening up policies, rapidly increasing FDI in China has attracted worldwide attention. In2012, China's actual use of foreign investment amounted to＄ 111.72billion. The entry of FDI has had extensive and far-reaching impact on China's economic and social development and modernization process, and in turn, promotes the government to develop a more favorable foreign investment policy to attract more FDI; it is this increasingly open investment environment and policy support that constitute a sustained growth of FDI in China. However, everything has two sides, FDI in this sense is a double-edged sword, brings the abundant capital, high technology and advanced management experience as well as the unignored hazards and pressure on the environment&energy in the host country.
Carbon emission has become one of the main agendas of the world climate conference, has also become important issue related to the vital interests as well as the long-term interests of everyone of us. China has committed to a40-45%reduction in carbon intensity from2005to2020, this commitment is not only a task, but also an obligation and mission. Comprehensive analysis of FDI from different sources and further study of the impact on China's carbon emissions, are helpful to provide some reference to balance China's foreign policy and environmental strategies, and to build two-way strategy of sustainable development between foreign investment and energy saving emission reducing. In view of this, the dissertation studys following questions:
From the general situations of FDI since the reform and opening policy, it shows the following characteristics:Firstly, the use of foreign capital continues to maintain a larger scale, but its growth rate is slowing down. Secondly, the industrial distribution of FDI is unevenly and the industrial structure is gradually optimizing. The highest proportion of foreign investment is in the secondary industry especially in the manufacturing sector, which is still the main areas of foreign investment. Thirdly, FDI is also unevenly distributed in different regions of China. The huge gaps exist between the eastern, central and western regions. Foreign direct investment is highly concentrated on the eastern region of China. It takes on the trend of gradually advancing from south to north, east to west.
To explore the characteristics and differences of the main sources of FDI in China, the dissertation divides the different sources into the following four types: Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan; Japan, South Korea and Singapore; the United States and Canada; Britain, France and Germany. Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions as a part of China trade with the mainland; Japan, Korea and other East Asian countries represent the successful innovation region through technology imitation from developed western countries, United States and Canada represent foreign capital from the North America; Britain France and Germany are representatives of the European Union, as the fourth source of foreign investment. Based on the frame, the dissertation analyzes the characteristics of different sources of FDI in China.
By means of time series analysis method and comparative analysis of the relationship between the foreign investments from different countries and carbon emissions from1997to2011, the results show that the impacts of different sources of FDI on carbon emissions in China exist significant differences:foreign capital from Britain, France and Germany has a positive effect on the carbon emissions, it may be that Britain, France and Germany are the most economically and technologically developed countries on the earth, the investment structure has become more and more advanced; FDI from the United States and Canada also has a positive impact on carbon emission in China. The reasons are likely that global companies of America pay more attention to the long-term strategy and tend to transfer the core technology and set up R&D center; FDI from Japan, Korea and Singapore has a negative effect on carbon emission in China, the reasons may be that foreign investment scale is not large and mainly limited in labor-intensive manufacturing, R&D level is not as well as Europe and America so that technology spillover effect is limited; Investments from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions, generally export-oriented, low technical level and additional value, making use of the mainland's cheap labor, natural resources and lax environmental regulation, could not have a positive impact on China's carbon emissions.
Finally, on the basis of depth study on the effect of FDI sources on carbon emissions in China, the dissertation tries to find an appropriate balance between China's foreign policy and environmental strategies to provide policy recommendations, such as the adjustment of investment structure, perfection of foreign capital quality, optimizing the industrial structure, playing abatement structure effect, adjusting the energy structure, improving energy efficiency, and improving environmental regulation, raising the threshold of entry.
碳排放问题已经成为世界气候会议的主要议题之一,也成为关系到我们每一个人切身利益与长远利益的重要问题。我国政府已经承诺至2020年在2005年的基础上将碳强度减少40—45%,这种承诺不仅是一种任务,更是一种义务与使命。对我国FDI不同来源地的综合分析、对我国碳排放的重要影响及特征的深度探析,可为我国的外资政策与节能减排策略之间找寻适度的平衡提供一定的参考,并为我国构建外资与节能减排双向可持续发展战略指明方向。鉴于此,本文对如下问题展开研究：
通过考察我国改革开放以来吸收FDI概况,可以发现我国目前利用FDI呈现以下特征：第一,利用外资仍继续保持较大规模,但增长速度放缓。第二,从FDI的产业分布来看,FDI产业分布不均衡,但产业结构逐步优化。外商投资于第二产业的比重最大,第二产业尤其是制造业仍是外商投资的主要领域。第三,FDI地区分布不均衡。我国东中西部地区吸收FDI的数量和规模差距很大,外商投资高度集中于东部地区,我国利用外资在区位上呈现从南到北、由东到西逐渐推进的趋势。
本文探讨了我国主要FDI来源地的特点和差异,将FDI不同来源地划分为港澳台地区、日韩新(即日本、韩国和新加坡)、美加(美国和加拿大)和英法德(英国、法国和德国)四种类型：港澳台地区作为我国的一部分与大陆发生外贸关系；日韩新等代表通过引进西方发达国家的技术不断模仿创新而成功的东亚国家；美加代表来源于北美地区的外资；英法德作为欧盟的代表,作为第四种外资来源地。本文在此基础上分析了我国FDI不同来源地的结构、成因及影响。
本文运用时间序列模型分析方法,对我国1997—2011年来源于不同国家的外资和碳排放之间关系进行了实证检验,结果发现不同来源地FDI对我国碳排放的影响程度存在显著差异：来自于英法德三国外资对于我国碳排放的影响是正面的,可能在于英法德作为全球经济、技术最发达的国家,其对华投资结构也日趋高级化；来源于美加的FDI对我国碳排放也产生积极影响,可能在于来自美国的跨国企业比较重视长期的战略发展,对核心技术的转移和研发中心的建立持积极开放的态度；来源于日韩新三地FDI对我国碳排放产生消极影响,可能在于这些外商规模不是很大,主要投向劳动密集型的制造业,研发水平不如欧美,对华技术溢出效应效果有限；来自港澳台地区的投资没能对我国大陆碳排放产生正面影响,港澳台地区的投资一般以出口导向型为主,技术水平不高、附加值偏低,主要利用的是我国大陆低廉的劳动力、自然资源和宽松的环境规制。
最后,在深入研究FDI不同来源地对我国碳排放影响的基础上,从而为我国的外资政策与节能减排策略之间找寻适度的平衡方面提出有针对的政策建议,如优化FDI来源结构,提高引资质量；促进产业升级,发挥减排结构效应；实施新能源战略,提高能源效率；加大环境管制,提高准入门槛。
With the establishment and development of China's opening up policies, rapidly increasing FDI in China has attracted worldwide attention. In2012, China's actual use of foreign investment amounted to＄ 111.72billion. The entry of FDI has had extensive and far-reaching impact on China's economic and social development and modernization process, and in turn, promotes the government to develop a more favorable foreign investment policy to attract more FDI; it is this increasingly open investment environment and policy support that constitute a sustained growth of FDI in China. However, everything has two sides, FDI in this sense is a double-edged sword, brings the abundant capital, high technology and advanced management experience as well as the unignored hazards and pressure on the environment&energy in the host country.
Carbon emission has become one of the main agendas of the world climate conference, has also become important issue related to the vital interests as well as the long-term interests of everyone of us. China has committed to a40-45%reduction in carbon intensity from2005to2020, this commitment is not only a task, but also an obligation and mission. Comprehensive analysis of FDI from different sources and further study of the impact on China's carbon emissions, are helpful to provide some reference to balance China's foreign policy and environmental strategies, and to build two-way strategy of sustainable development between foreign investment and energy saving emission reducing. In view of this, the dissertation studys following questions:
From the general situations of FDI since the reform and opening policy, it shows the following characteristics:Firstly, the use of foreign capital continues to maintain a larger scale, but its growth rate is slowing down. Secondly, the industrial distribution of FDI is unevenly and the industrial structure is gradually optimizing. The highest proportion of foreign investment is in the secondary industry especially in the manufacturing sector, which is still the main areas of foreign investment. Thirdly, FDI is also unevenly distributed in different regions of China. The huge gaps exist between the eastern, central and western regions. Foreign direct investment is highly concentrated on the eastern region of China. It takes on the trend of gradually advancing from south to north, east to west.
To explore the characteristics and differences of the main sources of FDI in China, the dissertation divides the different sources into the following four types: Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan; Japan, South Korea and Singapore; the United States and Canada; Britain, France and Germany. Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions as a part of China trade with the mainland; Japan, Korea and other East Asian countries represent the successful innovation region through technology imitation from developed western countries, United States and Canada represent foreign capital from the North America; Britain France and Germany are representatives of the European Union, as the fourth source of foreign investment. Based on the frame, the dissertation analyzes the characteristics of different sources of FDI in China.
By means of time series analysis method and comparative analysis of the relationship between the foreign investments from different countries and carbon emissions from1997to2011, the results show that the impacts of different sources of FDI on carbon emissions in China exist significant differences:foreign capital from Britain, France and Germany has a positive effect on the carbon emissions, it may be that Britain, France and Germany are the most economically and technologically developed countries on the earth, the investment structure has become more and more advanced; FDI from the United States and Canada also has a positive impact on carbon emission in China. The reasons are likely that global companies of America pay more attention to the long-term strategy and tend to transfer the core technology and set up R&D center; FDI from Japan, Korea and Singapore has a negative effect on carbon emission in China, the reasons may be that foreign investment scale is not large and mainly limited in labor-intensive manufacturing, R&D level is not as well as Europe and America so that technology spillover effect is limited; Investments from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions, generally export-oriented, low technical level and additional value, making use of the mainland's cheap labor, natural resources and lax environmental regulation, could not have a positive impact on China's carbon emissions.
Finally, on the basis of depth study on the effect of FDI sources on carbon emissions in China, the dissertation tries to find an appropriate balance between China's foreign policy and environmental strategies to provide policy recommendations, such as the adjustment of investment structure, perfection of foreign capital quality, optimizing the industrial structure, playing abatement structure effect, adjusting the energy structure, improving energy efficiency, and improving environmental regulation, raising the threshold of entry.
引文
①李惠茹：《关注外商直接投资生态环境正效应发挥——基于生态现代化建设的研究视角》,《国际贸易》2007年第8期。
① Porter, Michael, and Claas van der Linde,1995, "Toward a New Conception of the Environment Competitiveness Relationship," Journal of Economic Perspectives,9, No.4,97-118.
0李计广：《入世十年我国利用外资模式变迁》,《国际贸易》2011年第6期。
。张楠：《碳关税：新课题·新危机·新挑战》,《石油石化物资采购》2009年第11期。
① Grossman & Krueger(1993).Antweiler et al.(2001).Cole & Elliott(2003).张连众等(2003)、于峰和齐建国(2007)在理论和实践上认为贸易通过规模效应、结构效应和技术效应影响污染排放。由于FDI和贸易的相似性,贸易对环境的三种影响路径经济规模、产业结构和技术水平,对FDI的能源环境效应分析也同样适用(Bao & Chen,2008;周力和应瑞瑶,2009)。
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0李计广：《入世十年我国利用外资模式变迁》,《国际贸易》2011年第6期。
。张楠：《碳关税：新课题·新危机·新挑战》,《石油石化物资采购》2009年第11期。
① Grossman & Krueger(1993).Antweiler et al.(2001).Cole & Elliott(2003).张连众等(2003)、于峰和齐建国(2007)在理论和实践上认为贸易通过规模效应、结构效应和技术效应影响污染排放。由于FDI和贸易的相似性,贸易对环境的三种影响路径经济规模、产业结构和技术水平,对FDI的能源环境效应分析也同样适用(Bao & Chen,2008;周力和应瑞瑶,2009)。
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