我国狭义农业碳源碳汇实证分析
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摘要
自改革开放以来,我国的经济实力、综合国力和国际竞争力持续快速发展。但在我国经济发展过程中伴随着大量能源尤其是化石能源的消耗。工业生产过程中大量使用煤炭,农业生产过程中大量使用化肥、农药和农业机械等,直接导致了温室气体过度排放。大气中温室气体的浓度升高,特别是二氧化碳浓度升高容易引发气候变暖。全球气候变暖使得地球生态系统平衡遭到破坏,严重威胁人类生存与发展。
本文从农业的概念出发总结了我国农业生产的现状,测算了我国农业生产的碳排放量和碳吸收量,在此基础上指出我国目前的农业生产是高碳排放模式。从理论和实践角度说明过度碳排放对农业生产的影响,指出为缓解气候变化,我国应发展低碳农业。
论文首先从我国农业生产在国民经济中的基础地位入手,阐述了农业受气候变化影响的客观事实以及农业自身既是“碳源”又是“碳汇”的双重身份特征,引申出农业也应改变生产方式,变高碳农业为低碳农业的观点,进而分析了低碳农业的特点和功能,指出发展低碳农业是我国农业的现实选择。
论文运用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会有关结论和相关学者研究成果重点对我国农业生产过程中的碳排放进行了测算,并同时测算了农业生产过程中化石能源消耗引发的碳排放量及其受能源强度、能源结构和经济发展水平的影响,指出能源结构和能源强度是影响农业碳排放的主要因素。
论文还运用灰色关联度分析方法测度了我国农业主要投入要素在农业生产中的重要程度,为接下来采用数量经济分析方法进行农业碳排放量和主要投入要素之间的关系分析提供了变量选抒的基础。在此基础上结合本章分析结论对我国农业生产提出相应政策意见和建议。运用回归分析方法从边际分析和弹性分析两方面定量研究了化肥施用对农业碳排放的长期均衡影响,通过建立误差修正模型测度了农用化肥施用与农业碳排放的短期波动关系,再运用协整分析方法和建立向量误差修正模型对农业机械、农用化肥和农业碳排放之间进行脉冲响应分析。最后指出农业碳排放对农业机械和农用化肥冲击具有正向响应。因而要降低农业碳排放,应在农业生产过程中合理布局,尽量降低化石能源消耗、研发和推广新型能源、节约使用水、电力、薄膜、农药等投入要素,达到农业低碳化生产。
论文运用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会有关结论和相关学者研究成果对我国农业生产过程中的碳吸收进行了测算,并同时对农业生产的碳排放和碳吸收进行比较分析,计算了“净碳汇”指标,指出考虑到土壤本身的固碳效果,我国现阶段总体上农业碳排放大于碳吸收。为了定量分析种植业结构变化对农业碳吸收的影响,以种植面积增长最快的玉米种植对农业碳吸收的影响为例,先运用回归分析方法从边际分析和弹性分析两方面定量研究了玉米种植面积变化对农业碳吸收的长期均衡影响,通过建立误差修正模型测度了玉米种植面积变化与农业碳吸收之间的短期波动关系,再运用协整分析方法和建立向量误差修正模型对农业碳吸收和玉米种植面积之间进行脉冲响应分析。最后指出农业碳吸收对玉米种植面积的正向冲击会产生长期稳定的正向响应。因而要增加农业碳汇,应从合理调整种植业结构,推广新型高产稳产农作物品种和先进的农业种植技术等农业自身角度入手,切实减缓气候变化对农业生产的影响。
最后,论文在总结以上分析结论和国外先进经验的基础上,对我国减缓气候变化、发展低碳农业提出了建议,指出发展低碳农业应从国家层面上进行技术、政策和财政支持,在农业生产过程中尽量降低碳排放和增加碳吸收三个环节上来实施并具体分析了各环节应该采取的措施。
Since opening up and reform of China, our economic strength, comprehensive national strength and international competitiveness have obtained sustainable and fast development.The process of Chinese economic development is accompanied by a large amount of energy especially fossil energy consumption.Heavy use of coal in industrial production process, a large amount of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural machinery used in the process of agricultural production, directly leads to the excessive discharge of greenhouse gas. Elevated atmospheric concentrations, especially the carbon concentration easily trigger climate warming. Global warming has destroyed the balance of ecological system of the earth and constituted a direct and serious threat to human survival and development.
From the concept of agriculture, this article summarizes the present status of agricultural production in China, calculates carbon emissions and carbon absorption of our agricultural production, based on this points out that China's current agricultural production is a high carbon emission mode, indicates that excessive carbon emissions has an adverse effect on agricultural production from the perspective of theory and practice, then pointes out that our country should develop low carbon agriculture for the mitigation of climate change.Then pointed to mitigate climate change, we should develop low carbon agriculture.
This paper begins with describing the fundamental position of agriculture in the national economy, elaborates the objective facts that climate change affects agriculture production and agriculture is of a dual character,both "carbon source" and "Carbon sequestration",through which indicates that agriculture also should change the mode of production,turn high carbon agriculture into low carbon agriculture. Further analyzes the characteristics and functions of low carbon agriculture and pointes out that the development of low carbon agriculture is the real choice of our country agriculture.
This Paper estimates the carbon emissions of the agricultural production process with IPCC and the conclusionof relevant research from Chinese scholar.And at the same time it measures carbon emissions caused by fossil energy consumption in the process of agricultural production and the intensity of energy, energy structure and level of economic development are shown to influence carbon emissions. On the basis, it shows that the energy structure and energy intensity is the main factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions.
The paper also applies the method of grey correlative degree analysis to measure the important degree of China's main agricultural input in agricultural production.The conclusion provides the basis for variable selection.which help the author anysis the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and the main input factors through some methods of quantitative economic analysis. Based on the analysis, this chapter concludes the agricultural production of our country and puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions.To quantitative studies on the importance degree of major factor for agricultural carbon emissions, grey correlative degree analysis method is used to measure several main factors of agricultural production.then the method of regression analysis is utilized to quantitative the long term equilibrium effect from structure and elasticity on chemical fertilizer application and agricultural carbon emissions. Granger causality test and cointegration test are employed to analyze the short-term fluctuations between fertilizer application and agricultural carbon emissions, then a VEC model is built to analyze the impulse response through agriculture mechanical farm, chemical fertilizer impact to carbon emissions. Finally it is pointed out that agricultural machinery and agricultural chemical fertilizer has positive long-term impact on agricultural carbon and the agricultural production factors influence agricultural carbon emissions. In order to reduce carbon emissions in agriculture, the State shall apply rational project distribution to agricultural production process, try to reduce the energy consumption of fossil energy,to develop and popularize new energy type, make economical use of water, electricity, film, pesticides and other elements of the input in order to achieve agricultural production low carbonization
This paper also estimates the carbon sequestration to china's agricultural production process by using the conclusions of IPCC and relevant academic research about that.And at the same time, with the method of comparative analysis, the paper compares the carbon emissions of agricultural production with carbon absorption and calculates the "net carbon sequestration " index. Through this points out that considering the soil carbon sequestration effect, present stage the whole agricultural carbon emissions is larger than carbon absorption. In order to quantify the effect on agricultural carbon absorption and the change on agricultural planting structure, regressive analysis is used to reflect the long-term equilibrium impact between the maize cultivated area and agricultural carbon absorption through structure and elasticity analysis. Thanks to corn planting area is the fastest growing planting area, this chapter use corn planting area as an example to stand for the change of crop planting structure to analyze the relationship between change of crop planting structure and agricultural carbon sequestration. Granger causality test and cointegration analysis method are used to calculate the volatility of short-term impact of agricultural carbon sequestration and crop planting structure. A VEC model is built to reflect impulse response between agricultural carbon sequestration and crop planting structure. Last it is indicated that the the acreage impact of corn crop would bring a long-term stability positive response to agricultural carbon sequestration. In ordre to raise agricultural carbon sequestration, gricultural planting structure should be rationally readjusted, new productive should be promoted and crop strains and advanced technology of agriculture should be developed. Angle the impact on mitigation of agricultural oneself to climate change.
Finally, based on summarizing the above analysis and the advanced experience of foreign countries, some advices are given to mitigae climate change and grow low carbon agriculture. The paper points out that low-carbon agriculture should be carried out from three aspects, such as the implementation of the country level from technologyl and policy and financial support, reducing carbon emissions and increasing in carbon sequestration. The article puts forward some measures to all possible measures.
本文从农业的概念出发总结了我国农业生产的现状,测算了我国农业生产的碳排放量和碳吸收量,在此基础上指出我国目前的农业生产是高碳排放模式。从理论和实践角度说明过度碳排放对农业生产的影响,指出为缓解气候变化,我国应发展低碳农业。
论文首先从我国农业生产在国民经济中的基础地位入手,阐述了农业受气候变化影响的客观事实以及农业自身既是“碳源”又是“碳汇”的双重身份特征,引申出农业也应改变生产方式,变高碳农业为低碳农业的观点,进而分析了低碳农业的特点和功能,指出发展低碳农业是我国农业的现实选择。
论文运用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会有关结论和相关学者研究成果重点对我国农业生产过程中的碳排放进行了测算,并同时测算了农业生产过程中化石能源消耗引发的碳排放量及其受能源强度、能源结构和经济发展水平的影响,指出能源结构和能源强度是影响农业碳排放的主要因素。
论文还运用灰色关联度分析方法测度了我国农业主要投入要素在农业生产中的重要程度,为接下来采用数量经济分析方法进行农业碳排放量和主要投入要素之间的关系分析提供了变量选抒的基础。在此基础上结合本章分析结论对我国农业生产提出相应政策意见和建议。运用回归分析方法从边际分析和弹性分析两方面定量研究了化肥施用对农业碳排放的长期均衡影响,通过建立误差修正模型测度了农用化肥施用与农业碳排放的短期波动关系,再运用协整分析方法和建立向量误差修正模型对农业机械、农用化肥和农业碳排放之间进行脉冲响应分析。最后指出农业碳排放对农业机械和农用化肥冲击具有正向响应。因而要降低农业碳排放,应在农业生产过程中合理布局,尽量降低化石能源消耗、研发和推广新型能源、节约使用水、电力、薄膜、农药等投入要素,达到农业低碳化生产。
论文运用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会有关结论和相关学者研究成果对我国农业生产过程中的碳吸收进行了测算,并同时对农业生产的碳排放和碳吸收进行比较分析,计算了“净碳汇”指标,指出考虑到土壤本身的固碳效果,我国现阶段总体上农业碳排放大于碳吸收。为了定量分析种植业结构变化对农业碳吸收的影响,以种植面积增长最快的玉米种植对农业碳吸收的影响为例,先运用回归分析方法从边际分析和弹性分析两方面定量研究了玉米种植面积变化对农业碳吸收的长期均衡影响,通过建立误差修正模型测度了玉米种植面积变化与农业碳吸收之间的短期波动关系,再运用协整分析方法和建立向量误差修正模型对农业碳吸收和玉米种植面积之间进行脉冲响应分析。最后指出农业碳吸收对玉米种植面积的正向冲击会产生长期稳定的正向响应。因而要增加农业碳汇,应从合理调整种植业结构,推广新型高产稳产农作物品种和先进的农业种植技术等农业自身角度入手,切实减缓气候变化对农业生产的影响。
最后,论文在总结以上分析结论和国外先进经验的基础上,对我国减缓气候变化、发展低碳农业提出了建议,指出发展低碳农业应从国家层面上进行技术、政策和财政支持,在农业生产过程中尽量降低碳排放和增加碳吸收三个环节上来实施并具体分析了各环节应该采取的措施。
Since opening up and reform of China, our economic strength, comprehensive national strength and international competitiveness have obtained sustainable and fast development.The process of Chinese economic development is accompanied by a large amount of energy especially fossil energy consumption.Heavy use of coal in industrial production process, a large amount of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural machinery used in the process of agricultural production, directly leads to the excessive discharge of greenhouse gas. Elevated atmospheric concentrations, especially the carbon concentration easily trigger climate warming. Global warming has destroyed the balance of ecological system of the earth and constituted a direct and serious threat to human survival and development.
From the concept of agriculture, this article summarizes the present status of agricultural production in China, calculates carbon emissions and carbon absorption of our agricultural production, based on this points out that China's current agricultural production is a high carbon emission mode, indicates that excessive carbon emissions has an adverse effect on agricultural production from the perspective of theory and practice, then pointes out that our country should develop low carbon agriculture for the mitigation of climate change.Then pointed to mitigate climate change, we should develop low carbon agriculture.
This paper begins with describing the fundamental position of agriculture in the national economy, elaborates the objective facts that climate change affects agriculture production and agriculture is of a dual character,both "carbon source" and "Carbon sequestration",through which indicates that agriculture also should change the mode of production,turn high carbon agriculture into low carbon agriculture. Further analyzes the characteristics and functions of low carbon agriculture and pointes out that the development of low carbon agriculture is the real choice of our country agriculture.
This Paper estimates the carbon emissions of the agricultural production process with IPCC and the conclusionof relevant research from Chinese scholar.And at the same time it measures carbon emissions caused by fossil energy consumption in the process of agricultural production and the intensity of energy, energy structure and level of economic development are shown to influence carbon emissions. On the basis, it shows that the energy structure and energy intensity is the main factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions.
The paper also applies the method of grey correlative degree analysis to measure the important degree of China's main agricultural input in agricultural production.The conclusion provides the basis for variable selection.which help the author anysis the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and the main input factors through some methods of quantitative economic analysis. Based on the analysis, this chapter concludes the agricultural production of our country and puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions.To quantitative studies on the importance degree of major factor for agricultural carbon emissions, grey correlative degree analysis method is used to measure several main factors of agricultural production.then the method of regression analysis is utilized to quantitative the long term equilibrium effect from structure and elasticity on chemical fertilizer application and agricultural carbon emissions. Granger causality test and cointegration test are employed to analyze the short-term fluctuations between fertilizer application and agricultural carbon emissions, then a VEC model is built to analyze the impulse response through agriculture mechanical farm, chemical fertilizer impact to carbon emissions. Finally it is pointed out that agricultural machinery and agricultural chemical fertilizer has positive long-term impact on agricultural carbon and the agricultural production factors influence agricultural carbon emissions. In order to reduce carbon emissions in agriculture, the State shall apply rational project distribution to agricultural production process, try to reduce the energy consumption of fossil energy,to develop and popularize new energy type, make economical use of water, electricity, film, pesticides and other elements of the input in order to achieve agricultural production low carbonization
This paper also estimates the carbon sequestration to china's agricultural production process by using the conclusions of IPCC and relevant academic research about that.And at the same time, with the method of comparative analysis, the paper compares the carbon emissions of agricultural production with carbon absorption and calculates the "net carbon sequestration " index. Through this points out that considering the soil carbon sequestration effect, present stage the whole agricultural carbon emissions is larger than carbon absorption. In order to quantify the effect on agricultural carbon absorption and the change on agricultural planting structure, regressive analysis is used to reflect the long-term equilibrium impact between the maize cultivated area and agricultural carbon absorption through structure and elasticity analysis. Thanks to corn planting area is the fastest growing planting area, this chapter use corn planting area as an example to stand for the change of crop planting structure to analyze the relationship between change of crop planting structure and agricultural carbon sequestration. Granger causality test and cointegration analysis method are used to calculate the volatility of short-term impact of agricultural carbon sequestration and crop planting structure. A VEC model is built to reflect impulse response between agricultural carbon sequestration and crop planting structure. Last it is indicated that the the acreage impact of corn crop would bring a long-term stability positive response to agricultural carbon sequestration. In ordre to raise agricultural carbon sequestration, gricultural planting structure should be rationally readjusted, new productive should be promoted and crop strains and advanced technology of agriculture should be developed. Angle the impact on mitigation of agricultural oneself to climate change.
Finally, based on summarizing the above analysis and the advanced experience of foreign countries, some advices are given to mitigae climate change and grow low carbon agriculture. The paper points out that low-carbon agriculture should be carried out from three aspects, such as the implementation of the country level from technologyl and policy and financial support, reducing carbon emissions and increasing in carbon sequestration. The article puts forward some measures to all possible measures.
引文
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②中国农科院农业与环境可持续发展研究所.
③资料来源http://cn.reuters.com/article/CNEnvNews/idCNChina-3709220090218
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