天津市水环境承载力的研究
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摘要
水环境污染造成的水资源紧缺已成为我国社会经济发展的重大瓶颈,是影响水环境承载力的关键要素,水环境保护已经成为当前环境保护的头等工作。如何准确评价水环境承载力,成为当前水质管理的研究热点。对重点区域进行全面的水环境承载力研究,并有针对性地制定污染治理和保护计划,对区域的健康发展是非常必要的。本研究以天津市水环境为研究对象,对其水环境现状进行了评价,并对2008年和2020年入河污染物进行了污染物负荷分析；从狭义水环境承载力角度,量化了天津市水域81个水功能区2010年和2020年的COD和氨氮纳污能力,确定了各水功能区COD和氨氮的限制排污量和削减量；从广义水环境承载力角度,评价了社会经济发展情景下的天津市水环境承载力。在水体纳污能力和水环境承载力综合评价研究成果的基础上,提出了改善天津市水环境的管理对策。研究结果主要包括：
1、采用单因子评价法和综合标识指数法分别对2008年天津市水质现状进行了评价。用单因子法进行评价,满足2010年目标水质目标的断面占14.2%,不满足水质目标的断面占85.8%,水环境污染严重,主要超标指标为化学需氧量(CODCr)、高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)和氨氮；2001-2008年期间,天津市水环境总体水质呈逐年下降趋势,汛期水质要好于非汛期水质。综合标识指数法既考虑了水体的综合状况,又避免了单因子评价的缺陷,评价结果为V类和劣V类断面的比例分别为31.7%和48.3%。采用多元统计分析方法对天津市水环境进行了分析,用层次聚类法将天津市81个水功能区分为5类,并用判别分析验证了分类结果可靠性。
2、对天津市2008年和2020年的入河污水和入河污染物量进行了污染负荷分析。2008年天津市水环境共接纳入河污水8.08×108t,CODCr入河量为17.11×104t,氨氮入河量为1.34×104t；有74.6%的入河排污口超标,超标排污口主要集中在海河水系和大清河水系。用等标污染负荷法分析了2008年的入河排污口,得到了四个主要纳污水功能区及其主要排污口。根据预测,2020年天津市入河污水量为15.80x108t,COD入河量为8.56××104t,氨氮入河量为1.31×104t,用等标污染负荷法得到了9个主要的纳污水功能区。
3、采用水库型河道模型进行天津市水环境COD和氨氮纳污能力的量化计算。结果表明,75%水文保证率下,2010年天津市水体COD和氨氮的纳污能力分别为48009t/a和4335t/a。主要水系COD和氨氮纳污能力大小依次为：海河干流水系>北三河水系>大清河水系>永定河水系>子牙河水系>彰卫南运河水系。西青的COD和氨氮纳污能力最高。75%水文保证率下,天津市COD和氨氮的限制排污量分别为46913t/a和4275t/a,削减量分别为138431t/a和9810t/a。
4、75%水文保证率下,2020年天津市COD和氨氮的纳污能力分别78088t/a和10681t/a；海河干流的COD和氨氮纳污能力最大,各行政区中市区的COD和氨氮的纳污能力最大。75%水文保证率下,天津市COD和氨氮的限制排污量分别为77468t/a和10641t/a;COD和氨氮的削减量分别为22860t/a和6173t/a。2020年纳污能力的增加主要是由于2020年天津市排水系统的改善,大沽排污河和北塘排污河这两个排污控制区的纳污能力明显增加。
5、构建了社会经济发展情景下天津市水环境承载力的评价模型。根据天津市社会经济发展规划要求及水环境污染现状,从经济、社会、资源、环境、技术管理等角度,设计了水环境承载力评价指标体系,构建了三级层次结构模型,对天津市水环境承载力进行了现状综合评价和中远期情景预测分析。结果表明,2000-2007年,天津市水环境承载力呈总体上升趋势,水环境纳污能力对天津市水环境承载力的影响程度最大。2000-2007年评价期间,水资源支撑能力的支持强度逐渐下降,水环境纳污能力和社会优化配置能力的支持强度逐渐增强。通过节水、增加环保投资、降低万元GDP的COD排放强度、综合措施可以不同程度地提高天津市的水环境承载力。
6、通过对水环境纳污能力和水环境承载力的研究,提出了基于纳污能力和限排总量的水质管理对策和提升水环境承载力的综合管理对策。
In China, water resources shortage because of water pollution has become the vital problem to economical development and it was the key influential factor of the water environmental carrying capacity. Water environmental protection has become the current first-class job of environmental protection. How to evaluate water environmental carrying capacity exactly has become a hot topic in watershed water-quality management. It is necessary for healthy development of important regions to study their water environmental carrying capacity as fully as possible and to establish the pointed plans for water pollution control and for water environmental protection. Taking the water environment in Tianjin as an example, this dissertation assessed the current status of its water environment and analyzed the pollutants into rivers in 2008 and in 2020, separately. From the narrowed meaning of carrying capacity of water environment, the watercourse module analogous to reservoirs was developed to calculate the capacities to assimilative chemical oxygen demand (CODCr) and ammonia nitrogen (NH4+-N) of the 81 water functional zones in 2010 and 2020. According to the results of the assimilative capacity, the limiting emissions and the pollutant reductions of every water functional zone were identified. From the broad meaning of carrying capacity of water environment, the water environmental carrying capacity of Tianjin was evaluated based on index system under different social-economic development scenarios. The management strategy was put forward to improve the water environment of Tianjin basing on the researching results of the assimilative capacity and the assessment of carrying capacity. The main results were summarized as follows.
1. Simple factor assessment and comprehensive identification index were used to assess the current status of water environment in Tianjin.14.2 percent sections were satisfied with the demand of the water functional zones for 2010 by the method of simple factor assessment. The water pollution in Tianjin was very serious and the indexes that exceeded the water criterion were CODCr, potassium permanganate index (CODMn) and NH4+-N. The condition of water environment in Tianjin became worse and worse year by year during the period of 2001-2008. The water quality in flood season was better than that in dry season. The comprehensive identification index not only considered the general condition of water quality, but also avoided the limitation of the simple factor assessment method. The ratios of the sections belonging to class V and worse than class V were 31.7% and 48.3%, respectively. Multivariate statistical techniques were used to analyze the condition of water environment in Tianjin. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to group 81 water functional zones into 5 clusters and discriminant analysis provided the reliability for the result of hierarchical cluster analysis.
2. The pollutant loads of the wastewater and the pollutants into river in 2008 and in 2020 were analyzed. There was 8.08×108 ton wastewater into river in 2008. The quantities of CODCr and NH4+-N into river were 17.11×104 ton and 1.34×104 ton, respectively.74.6% inlets into river exceeded the limitation demanded. These inlets centered on the Haihe mainstream water system and the Daqing River water system. Four water functional zones mainly accepting the pollutant and their primary inlets were chosen by the method of equal standard pollution load. According to the results of forecast, there will be 15.80×108 ton wastewater,8.56××104 ton CODCr and 1.31×104 ton ammonia nitrogen into rivers in 2020. Nine water functional zones were chosen as the main zones accepting the pollutant.
3. The watercourse module analogous to reservoirs was developed to calculate the assimilative capacities of CODCr and ammonia nitrogen in Tianjin. The results indicated that the total CODCr and ammonia nitrogen assimilative capacity calculated based on 75% confidence instream flow condition were 48009t.a-1 and 4335t.a-1, respectively. The total CODCr and ammonia nitrogen assimilative capacity of water system in Tianjin decreases in the following order:Haihe mainstream water system> Beisan River water system>Daqing River water system>Yongding River water system>Ziya River water system>Zhangwei South Chanel. Xiqing has the most amount of assimilative capacity of CODCr and ammonia nitrogen among the 13 districts. The limiting emissions of CODCr and ammonia nitrogen based on 75% confidence instream flow condition were 46913t.a-1 and 4275t.a-1, respectively. The reduced loads of CODCr and ammonia nitrogen were 138431 t.a-1 and 9810t.a-1, respectively.
4. In 2020, the total CODCr and ammonia nitrogen assimilative capacity calculated based on 75% confidence instream flow condition were 78088t.a-1 and 10681 t.a-1, respectively. The Haihe mainstream water system had the most amount of assimilative capacity of CODcr and ammonia nitrogen. The centre of Tianjin had the most assimilative capacity among the 13 districts. The limiting emissions of CODCr and ammonia nitrogen basing on 75% confidence instream flow condiction were 77468t.a-1 and 10641t.a-1, respectively. The reduced loads of CODCr and ammonia nitrogen were 22860t.a-1 and 6173t.a-1. It was the improvement of the drainage system that led to the increasement of assimilative capacity of Tianjin in 2020.
5. The evaluation method of water environmental carrying capacity under different social-economic development scenarios was constructed. According to the socioeconomic development planning demand and water pollution state in Tianjin, The index system to evaluate the carrying capacity of water environment was designed from the aspects of economy, society, resources, environment and technology, and a three-layer hierarchy-structured water environmental carrying capacity evaluation model was proposed. The current situation of water environmental carrying capacity was evaluated and different scenarios of medium or long period were analyzed using the evaluation model of the water environmental carrying capacity. The result of current situation evaluation showed that the carrying capacity of water environment increased in Tianjin from 2000 to 2007. The assimilative capacity of water environment had the most influence on the water environmental carrying capacity. The supporting ability of water resource decreased and the water environmental carrying capacity and the ability of the social optimized configuration increased during the assessed period from 2000 to 2007. The scenarios analysis indicated that all of the following measurement, such as saving water, increasing investment on environmental protection to reduce the amount of COD per unit discharge, comprehensive measurement, could improve the water environmental carrying capacity of Tianjin.
6. Basing on the research of the assimilative capacity and the carrying capacity of water environment in Tianjin, the managing measurement of water quality basing on the assimilative capacity and the limiting emission and the comprehensive managing measurement on how to improve water environment carrying capacity were put forward.
1、采用单因子评价法和综合标识指数法分别对2008年天津市水质现状进行了评价。用单因子法进行评价,满足2010年目标水质目标的断面占14.2%,不满足水质目标的断面占85.8%,水环境污染严重,主要超标指标为化学需氧量(CODCr)、高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)和氨氮；2001-2008年期间,天津市水环境总体水质呈逐年下降趋势,汛期水质要好于非汛期水质。综合标识指数法既考虑了水体的综合状况,又避免了单因子评价的缺陷,评价结果为V类和劣V类断面的比例分别为31.7%和48.3%。采用多元统计分析方法对天津市水环境进行了分析,用层次聚类法将天津市81个水功能区分为5类,并用判别分析验证了分类结果可靠性。
2、对天津市2008年和2020年的入河污水和入河污染物量进行了污染负荷分析。2008年天津市水环境共接纳入河污水8.08×108t,CODCr入河量为17.11×104t,氨氮入河量为1.34×104t；有74.6%的入河排污口超标,超标排污口主要集中在海河水系和大清河水系。用等标污染负荷法分析了2008年的入河排污口,得到了四个主要纳污水功能区及其主要排污口。根据预测,2020年天津市入河污水量为15.80x108t,COD入河量为8.56××104t,氨氮入河量为1.31×104t,用等标污染负荷法得到了9个主要的纳污水功能区。
3、采用水库型河道模型进行天津市水环境COD和氨氮纳污能力的量化计算。结果表明,75%水文保证率下,2010年天津市水体COD和氨氮的纳污能力分别为48009t/a和4335t/a。主要水系COD和氨氮纳污能力大小依次为：海河干流水系>北三河水系>大清河水系>永定河水系>子牙河水系>彰卫南运河水系。西青的COD和氨氮纳污能力最高。75%水文保证率下,天津市COD和氨氮的限制排污量分别为46913t/a和4275t/a,削减量分别为138431t/a和9810t/a。
4、75%水文保证率下,2020年天津市COD和氨氮的纳污能力分别78088t/a和10681t/a；海河干流的COD和氨氮纳污能力最大,各行政区中市区的COD和氨氮的纳污能力最大。75%水文保证率下,天津市COD和氨氮的限制排污量分别为77468t/a和10641t/a;COD和氨氮的削减量分别为22860t/a和6173t/a。2020年纳污能力的增加主要是由于2020年天津市排水系统的改善,大沽排污河和北塘排污河这两个排污控制区的纳污能力明显增加。
5、构建了社会经济发展情景下天津市水环境承载力的评价模型。根据天津市社会经济发展规划要求及水环境污染现状,从经济、社会、资源、环境、技术管理等角度,设计了水环境承载力评价指标体系,构建了三级层次结构模型,对天津市水环境承载力进行了现状综合评价和中远期情景预测分析。结果表明,2000-2007年,天津市水环境承载力呈总体上升趋势,水环境纳污能力对天津市水环境承载力的影响程度最大。2000-2007年评价期间,水资源支撑能力的支持强度逐渐下降,水环境纳污能力和社会优化配置能力的支持强度逐渐增强。通过节水、增加环保投资、降低万元GDP的COD排放强度、综合措施可以不同程度地提高天津市的水环境承载力。
6、通过对水环境纳污能力和水环境承载力的研究,提出了基于纳污能力和限排总量的水质管理对策和提升水环境承载力的综合管理对策。
In China, water resources shortage because of water pollution has become the vital problem to economical development and it was the key influential factor of the water environmental carrying capacity. Water environmental protection has become the current first-class job of environmental protection. How to evaluate water environmental carrying capacity exactly has become a hot topic in watershed water-quality management. It is necessary for healthy development of important regions to study their water environmental carrying capacity as fully as possible and to establish the pointed plans for water pollution control and for water environmental protection. Taking the water environment in Tianjin as an example, this dissertation assessed the current status of its water environment and analyzed the pollutants into rivers in 2008 and in 2020, separately. From the narrowed meaning of carrying capacity of water environment, the watercourse module analogous to reservoirs was developed to calculate the capacities to assimilative chemical oxygen demand (CODCr) and ammonia nitrogen (NH4+-N) of the 81 water functional zones in 2010 and 2020. According to the results of the assimilative capacity, the limiting emissions and the pollutant reductions of every water functional zone were identified. From the broad meaning of carrying capacity of water environment, the water environmental carrying capacity of Tianjin was evaluated based on index system under different social-economic development scenarios. The management strategy was put forward to improve the water environment of Tianjin basing on the researching results of the assimilative capacity and the assessment of carrying capacity. The main results were summarized as follows.
1. Simple factor assessment and comprehensive identification index were used to assess the current status of water environment in Tianjin.14.2 percent sections were satisfied with the demand of the water functional zones for 2010 by the method of simple factor assessment. The water pollution in Tianjin was very serious and the indexes that exceeded the water criterion were CODCr, potassium permanganate index (CODMn) and NH4+-N. The condition of water environment in Tianjin became worse and worse year by year during the period of 2001-2008. The water quality in flood season was better than that in dry season. The comprehensive identification index not only considered the general condition of water quality, but also avoided the limitation of the simple factor assessment method. The ratios of the sections belonging to class V and worse than class V were 31.7% and 48.3%, respectively. Multivariate statistical techniques were used to analyze the condition of water environment in Tianjin. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to group 81 water functional zones into 5 clusters and discriminant analysis provided the reliability for the result of hierarchical cluster analysis.
2. The pollutant loads of the wastewater and the pollutants into river in 2008 and in 2020 were analyzed. There was 8.08×108 ton wastewater into river in 2008. The quantities of CODCr and NH4+-N into river were 17.11×104 ton and 1.34×104 ton, respectively.74.6% inlets into river exceeded the limitation demanded. These inlets centered on the Haihe mainstream water system and the Daqing River water system. Four water functional zones mainly accepting the pollutant and their primary inlets were chosen by the method of equal standard pollution load. According to the results of forecast, there will be 15.80×108 ton wastewater,8.56××104 ton CODCr and 1.31×104 ton ammonia nitrogen into rivers in 2020. Nine water functional zones were chosen as the main zones accepting the pollutant.
3. The watercourse module analogous to reservoirs was developed to calculate the assimilative capacities of CODCr and ammonia nitrogen in Tianjin. The results indicated that the total CODCr and ammonia nitrogen assimilative capacity calculated based on 75% confidence instream flow condition were 48009t.a-1 and 4335t.a-1, respectively. The total CODCr and ammonia nitrogen assimilative capacity of water system in Tianjin decreases in the following order:Haihe mainstream water system> Beisan River water system>Daqing River water system>Yongding River water system>Ziya River water system>Zhangwei South Chanel. Xiqing has the most amount of assimilative capacity of CODCr and ammonia nitrogen among the 13 districts. The limiting emissions of CODCr and ammonia nitrogen based on 75% confidence instream flow condition were 46913t.a-1 and 4275t.a-1, respectively. The reduced loads of CODCr and ammonia nitrogen were 138431 t.a-1 and 9810t.a-1, respectively.
4. In 2020, the total CODCr and ammonia nitrogen assimilative capacity calculated based on 75% confidence instream flow condition were 78088t.a-1 and 10681 t.a-1, respectively. The Haihe mainstream water system had the most amount of assimilative capacity of CODcr and ammonia nitrogen. The centre of Tianjin had the most assimilative capacity among the 13 districts. The limiting emissions of CODCr and ammonia nitrogen basing on 75% confidence instream flow condiction were 77468t.a-1 and 10641t.a-1, respectively. The reduced loads of CODCr and ammonia nitrogen were 22860t.a-1 and 6173t.a-1. It was the improvement of the drainage system that led to the increasement of assimilative capacity of Tianjin in 2020.
5. The evaluation method of water environmental carrying capacity under different social-economic development scenarios was constructed. According to the socioeconomic development planning demand and water pollution state in Tianjin, The index system to evaluate the carrying capacity of water environment was designed from the aspects of economy, society, resources, environment and technology, and a three-layer hierarchy-structured water environmental carrying capacity evaluation model was proposed. The current situation of water environmental carrying capacity was evaluated and different scenarios of medium or long period were analyzed using the evaluation model of the water environmental carrying capacity. The result of current situation evaluation showed that the carrying capacity of water environment increased in Tianjin from 2000 to 2007. The assimilative capacity of water environment had the most influence on the water environmental carrying capacity. The supporting ability of water resource decreased and the water environmental carrying capacity and the ability of the social optimized configuration increased during the assessed period from 2000 to 2007. The scenarios analysis indicated that all of the following measurement, such as saving water, increasing investment on environmental protection to reduce the amount of COD per unit discharge, comprehensive measurement, could improve the water environmental carrying capacity of Tianjin.
6. Basing on the research of the assimilative capacity and the carrying capacity of water environment in Tianjin, the managing measurement of water quality basing on the assimilative capacity and the limiting emission and the comprehensive managing measurement on how to improve water environment carrying capacity were put forward.
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