利用库仑破裂准则评估活动断层地震危险性
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摘要
活动断层地震危险性评估既是保证人民生命财产安全、促进社会稳定及经济可持续发展的一项重要工作,也是地球科学领域长期以来所面临的一项研究难题。顾名思义,其主要任务是评估活动断层未来一段时间内发生破坏性地震的可能性与危险性。活动断层地震危险性评估结果对确定建(构)物抗震设防等级、制定城市规划、减轻地震灾害具有重要意义。
本文从地震孕育和发生的力学与物理机制出发,根据岩石的破裂准则对活动断层进行地震危险性评估。认为在地震孕育过程中活动断层的应力积累主要来自板块的构造运动和地震、火山等地质活动。据此,将活动断层地震危险性评估的主要工作分为：(1)计算待评估活动断层上的构造应力积累速率；(2)分析邻近的历史地质活动对其应力扰动；(3)评估邻近的潜在地质活动对其应力扰动。基于这一评估思想建立起了活动断层地震危险性评估系统。
本文同时根据青藏高原两种构造运动变形模式——“连续形变模型”和“大陆逃逸模型”计算得到了其内部主要断层上的构造应力积累速率。针对“刚性运动和连续形变耦合模型”,本文采用了最小二乘配置方法；对于“大陆逃逸模型”,采用了弹性块体模型和深部滑动法。利用GPS速度场反演得到的结果表明,青藏高原东部活动断层的构造应力积累速率高于西部,鲜水河断裂系(含甘孜—玉树断裂、鲜水河断裂、安宁河断裂和小江断裂)上的构造应力积累速率高于其他断裂,均值约为5-9KPa/yr。
本文分析了汶川和玉树地震对周边活动断层的应力扰动。在分析玉树地震时,改进了经典的拉普拉斯平滑算子,提出了一种新的利用三角形位错元构建断层几何模型的方法,推导了角位错在弹性半空间任意深度引起的应变公式。根据提取的发震断层地表精细破裂迹线,同时利用矩形位错元和三角形位错元建立起了断层几何模型。最后利用两幅InSAR干涉图(ENVISAT ASAR T498A和ALOS PALSAR T487A)反演得到了此次地震的矩形和三角滑动分布模型。通过比较发现：(1)三角滑动分布模型不仅能提高对InSAR观测数据的拟合度还可以提高对余震观测数据的拟合度。(2)此次地震的震级为Mw6.76-6.81,出现了两个较大的滑动集中区。其中最大的滑动位于洛荣达村附近(震中东南)的地表,达到～1.6m；第二个滑动集中区位于发震断层的中部,靠近震源,深度为～6km。此外,本文还推导了角位错在弹性半空间中任意深度引起的应变公式,将重复出现的公式项单独列出,程序测试表明利用这些公式可以将计算速度提高～13倍。
本文选取鲜水河断裂作为待评估的对象,分析了其各个分段特征地震的震级和复发周期。结果表明,特征地震约为7.0～7.5级,康定—石棉分段和乾宁—康定分段的平均复发周期最高,超过200yr。其次是朱倭—炉霍分段,周期在150yr左右。炉霍—道孚分段和道孚—乾宁分段的周期在100yr左右。在此基础上计算了鲜水河断裂各个分段的构造应力积累量。在乾宁—康定分段上的构造应力积累量最高,在未来50年最大值会达到7.46bar,在未来100年最大值会达到10.95bar；其次是朱倭—炉霍分段,在未来50年最大值会达到4.82bar,在未来100年最大值会达到7.53bar。而康定—石棉段分上的构造应力积累最小,约为乾宁—康定分段上积累量的一半。
2008年汶川地震对鲜水河断裂乾宁—康定段和道孚—乾宁段的下一次特征地震有加速效应,最大加速达到4年。此外对康定—石棉分段有延迟作用,最大延迟接近7年。但对于长达几百年的复发周期而言,这种影响不是很明显。2010年玉树地震对鲜水河断裂的影响很小。在未来100年内,甘孜—玉树断裂、龙门山断裂和大凉山断裂上的潜在地震活动对鲜水河断裂的影响甚微。安宁河断裂北段上的潜在地震对鲜水河断裂的康定—石棉分段影响较大。根据1MPa的应力降得到的结果表明,朱倭—炉霍、炉霍—道孚、道孚—乾宁、乾宁—康定和康定—石棉分段上潜在地震的复发时间分别在公元2158年、2194年、2143年、2096年和2243年左右。
文中最后对汶川和玉树地震震后区域地震危险性进行了评估。结果表明,玉树地区的震前地震活动率较龙门山地区高。汶川地震的余震持续时间约为230年,汶川地震的余震持续时间较玉树地震长。汶川地震震后出现活动率提高的区域在发震断层两侧约100km内,而玉树地震在～10km内。
The seismic hazard assessments to the active faults are important tasks to ensure the safety of people lives and property and promote social stability and sustainable economic development. Additionally it is an academic challenge, which has not been solved, in the earth science. The primary work is to evaluate the possibilities and hazards of destructive earthquakes on active faults in a time span. The results of assessments are valuable to determine the seismic fortification levels of structures and buildings, formulate the urban planning and mitigate the earthquake disasters.
In this thesis, a new method using the rock failure criteria is proposed to assess the seismic hazards of active faults. Based on the physical mechanisms of earthquake preparation and occurrence, it is supposed that the stress accumulation on the active faults is mainly from the plate tectonic motion and the geological activities such as earthquakes and volcanoes during the seismogenic process. Consequently, the main contents of this new method can be divided into:(1) calculating the tectonic stressing rates of active faults,(2) calculating the stress disturbance from the historical geological activities to the active faults,(3) assessing the stress disturbance from the potential geological activities to the active faults. According to this method, a new Active Fault Earthquake Risk Evaluating System (AFERES) is developed.
With the AFERES, the tectonic stressing rates of the main faults in the Tibetan plateau are inverted using GPS data. Two end-member crust motion and deformation hypotheses, continuum and micro-plate, of the Tibetan plateau are adopted. The least-square collocation method and the elastic block model are used respectively for these two models. The results show the tectonic stressing rates of the faults in the eastern Tibetan plateau than in the western. The stressing rates of the Xianshuihe fault system (including the Ganzi-Yushu fault, Xianshuihe fault, Anninghe fault and Xiaojiang fault) are higher than the other faults. on the majority of active faults is～4kPa/yr. The average level is5-9kPa/yro
The stress disturbances from2008Wenchuan earthquake and2010Yushu earthquake to their adjacent active faults are obtained. For the Yushu event, a refined rupture trace of the causative fault is extracted from two InSAR coseismic interferograms and the field investigation results. A new method to discretize the fault geometry using Triangular Dislocation Elements (TDEs), which can keep a good consistency with the fault geometry modelled with Rectangular Dislocation Elements (RDEs) and avoid the dislocation gaps and overlaps, is presented. Consequently the comprehensive comparisons between RDE and TDE models can be implemented. Due to the classic Laplacian operator minimizes the slip on the boundary RDEs of the fault, a modification to the classic Laplacian operator is accomplished to get more reasonable RDE models. The inversion and comparison results show that two larger slip concentration patches occurred in the Yushu earthquake. The largest locates southeast of the hypocentre near Luorongda country with the maximum slip of～1.6m at the surface. The second largest slip patches are in the middle of the causative fault near the hypocentre. The magnitude of this event is Mw6.76-6.81. Furthermore, the the analytic expressions for the strains associated with angular dislocations in an elastic half-space are re-derived. The computing efficiency increases by～13times than the code presented by Meade, which is mainly attributed to that the terms frequently used in the formulae are extracted.
The Xianshuihe fault is selected as an object to be assessed by the method presented in this paper. The magnitudes and recurrence intervals of the characteristic earthquakes on five segments of the Xianshuihe fault have been analysed. The results show the magnitude is7.0～7.5. The recurrence intervals of the Kangding-Shimian and Qianning-Kangding segments are both over200years. The recurrence interval of the Zhuwo-Luhuo segment is～150years. The recurrence intervals of the Luhuo-Daofu and Daofu-Qianning segments are both～100years. The calculated tectonic stress accumulation amount show the value of the Qianning-Kangding segment is the highest, about7.46bar for the time span from the last characteristic earthquake to the next50years and10.95bar for the time span from the last characteristic earthquake to the next100years。 The second highest is the Zhuwo-Luhuo segment, whose maximum values is4.82bar and7.53bar respectively for the above two time span. The stress accumulation of the Kangding-Shimian segment is the lowest, about equal to half the value of the Qianning-Kangding segment.
The2008Wenchuan earthquake has an acceleration effect on the potential earthquakes of the Qianning-Kangding and Daofu-Qianning segment of the Xianshuihe fault. The maximum acceleration approximates4years. On the Kangding-Shimian segment, there is an outstanding delay effect. The maximum amount reaches7years. However, for the recurrence interval long for several hundred years, these influences are not obvious. The effect of the2010Yushu earthquake on the Xianshuihe fault can be omitted. In the next100years, the potential earthquakes on the Ganzi-Yushu fault, Longmenshan fault and Daliangshan fault have little effect on the recurrences of the characteristic earthquakes of the Xianshuihe fault. The potential earthquakes on the Anninghe fault have great effect on the recurrences of the characteristic earthquakes of the Xianshuihe fault. According to the stress drop of1MPa, the recurrence times of the potential earthquakes on the Zhuwo-Luhuo, Luhuo-Daofu, Daofu-Qianning, Qianning-Kangding and Kangding-Shimian segments are respectively in AD2158,2194,2143,2096and2243.
Finally, the aftershock regional seismic hazard assessments to the Wenchuan earthquake and Yushu earthquake are carried out. The results show the background seismic activity rate in the Yushu region is higher than the Longmenshan region. The aftershock duration time of the Wenchuan earthquake is～230years longer than the Yushu earthquake. The regions of the seismic activity increased mainly locate in～100km wide zone along the causative fault of the Wenchuan earthquake. The width for the Yushu earthquake is～10km.
本文从地震孕育和发生的力学与物理机制出发,根据岩石的破裂准则对活动断层进行地震危险性评估。认为在地震孕育过程中活动断层的应力积累主要来自板块的构造运动和地震、火山等地质活动。据此,将活动断层地震危险性评估的主要工作分为：(1)计算待评估活动断层上的构造应力积累速率；(2)分析邻近的历史地质活动对其应力扰动；(3)评估邻近的潜在地质活动对其应力扰动。基于这一评估思想建立起了活动断层地震危险性评估系统。
本文同时根据青藏高原两种构造运动变形模式——“连续形变模型”和“大陆逃逸模型”计算得到了其内部主要断层上的构造应力积累速率。针对“刚性运动和连续形变耦合模型”,本文采用了最小二乘配置方法；对于“大陆逃逸模型”,采用了弹性块体模型和深部滑动法。利用GPS速度场反演得到的结果表明,青藏高原东部活动断层的构造应力积累速率高于西部,鲜水河断裂系(含甘孜—玉树断裂、鲜水河断裂、安宁河断裂和小江断裂)上的构造应力积累速率高于其他断裂,均值约为5-9KPa/yr。
本文分析了汶川和玉树地震对周边活动断层的应力扰动。在分析玉树地震时,改进了经典的拉普拉斯平滑算子,提出了一种新的利用三角形位错元构建断层几何模型的方法,推导了角位错在弹性半空间任意深度引起的应变公式。根据提取的发震断层地表精细破裂迹线,同时利用矩形位错元和三角形位错元建立起了断层几何模型。最后利用两幅InSAR干涉图(ENVISAT ASAR T498A和ALOS PALSAR T487A)反演得到了此次地震的矩形和三角滑动分布模型。通过比较发现：(1)三角滑动分布模型不仅能提高对InSAR观测数据的拟合度还可以提高对余震观测数据的拟合度。(2)此次地震的震级为Mw6.76-6.81,出现了两个较大的滑动集中区。其中最大的滑动位于洛荣达村附近(震中东南)的地表,达到～1.6m；第二个滑动集中区位于发震断层的中部,靠近震源,深度为～6km。此外,本文还推导了角位错在弹性半空间中任意深度引起的应变公式,将重复出现的公式项单独列出,程序测试表明利用这些公式可以将计算速度提高～13倍。
本文选取鲜水河断裂作为待评估的对象,分析了其各个分段特征地震的震级和复发周期。结果表明,特征地震约为7.0～7.5级,康定—石棉分段和乾宁—康定分段的平均复发周期最高,超过200yr。其次是朱倭—炉霍分段,周期在150yr左右。炉霍—道孚分段和道孚—乾宁分段的周期在100yr左右。在此基础上计算了鲜水河断裂各个分段的构造应力积累量。在乾宁—康定分段上的构造应力积累量最高,在未来50年最大值会达到7.46bar,在未来100年最大值会达到10.95bar；其次是朱倭—炉霍分段,在未来50年最大值会达到4.82bar,在未来100年最大值会达到7.53bar。而康定—石棉段分上的构造应力积累最小,约为乾宁—康定分段上积累量的一半。
2008年汶川地震对鲜水河断裂乾宁—康定段和道孚—乾宁段的下一次特征地震有加速效应,最大加速达到4年。此外对康定—石棉分段有延迟作用,最大延迟接近7年。但对于长达几百年的复发周期而言,这种影响不是很明显。2010年玉树地震对鲜水河断裂的影响很小。在未来100年内,甘孜—玉树断裂、龙门山断裂和大凉山断裂上的潜在地震活动对鲜水河断裂的影响甚微。安宁河断裂北段上的潜在地震对鲜水河断裂的康定—石棉分段影响较大。根据1MPa的应力降得到的结果表明,朱倭—炉霍、炉霍—道孚、道孚—乾宁、乾宁—康定和康定—石棉分段上潜在地震的复发时间分别在公元2158年、2194年、2143年、2096年和2243年左右。
文中最后对汶川和玉树地震震后区域地震危险性进行了评估。结果表明,玉树地区的震前地震活动率较龙门山地区高。汶川地震的余震持续时间约为230年,汶川地震的余震持续时间较玉树地震长。汶川地震震后出现活动率提高的区域在发震断层两侧约100km内,而玉树地震在～10km内。
The seismic hazard assessments to the active faults are important tasks to ensure the safety of people lives and property and promote social stability and sustainable economic development. Additionally it is an academic challenge, which has not been solved, in the earth science. The primary work is to evaluate the possibilities and hazards of destructive earthquakes on active faults in a time span. The results of assessments are valuable to determine the seismic fortification levels of structures and buildings, formulate the urban planning and mitigate the earthquake disasters.
In this thesis, a new method using the rock failure criteria is proposed to assess the seismic hazards of active faults. Based on the physical mechanisms of earthquake preparation and occurrence, it is supposed that the stress accumulation on the active faults is mainly from the plate tectonic motion and the geological activities such as earthquakes and volcanoes during the seismogenic process. Consequently, the main contents of this new method can be divided into:(1) calculating the tectonic stressing rates of active faults,(2) calculating the stress disturbance from the historical geological activities to the active faults,(3) assessing the stress disturbance from the potential geological activities to the active faults. According to this method, a new Active Fault Earthquake Risk Evaluating System (AFERES) is developed.
With the AFERES, the tectonic stressing rates of the main faults in the Tibetan plateau are inverted using GPS data. Two end-member crust motion and deformation hypotheses, continuum and micro-plate, of the Tibetan plateau are adopted. The least-square collocation method and the elastic block model are used respectively for these two models. The results show the tectonic stressing rates of the faults in the eastern Tibetan plateau than in the western. The stressing rates of the Xianshuihe fault system (including the Ganzi-Yushu fault, Xianshuihe fault, Anninghe fault and Xiaojiang fault) are higher than the other faults. on the majority of active faults is～4kPa/yr. The average level is5-9kPa/yro
The stress disturbances from2008Wenchuan earthquake and2010Yushu earthquake to their adjacent active faults are obtained. For the Yushu event, a refined rupture trace of the causative fault is extracted from two InSAR coseismic interferograms and the field investigation results. A new method to discretize the fault geometry using Triangular Dislocation Elements (TDEs), which can keep a good consistency with the fault geometry modelled with Rectangular Dislocation Elements (RDEs) and avoid the dislocation gaps and overlaps, is presented. Consequently the comprehensive comparisons between RDE and TDE models can be implemented. Due to the classic Laplacian operator minimizes the slip on the boundary RDEs of the fault, a modification to the classic Laplacian operator is accomplished to get more reasonable RDE models. The inversion and comparison results show that two larger slip concentration patches occurred in the Yushu earthquake. The largest locates southeast of the hypocentre near Luorongda country with the maximum slip of～1.6m at the surface. The second largest slip patches are in the middle of the causative fault near the hypocentre. The magnitude of this event is Mw6.76-6.81. Furthermore, the the analytic expressions for the strains associated with angular dislocations in an elastic half-space are re-derived. The computing efficiency increases by～13times than the code presented by Meade, which is mainly attributed to that the terms frequently used in the formulae are extracted.
The Xianshuihe fault is selected as an object to be assessed by the method presented in this paper. The magnitudes and recurrence intervals of the characteristic earthquakes on five segments of the Xianshuihe fault have been analysed. The results show the magnitude is7.0～7.5. The recurrence intervals of the Kangding-Shimian and Qianning-Kangding segments are both over200years. The recurrence interval of the Zhuwo-Luhuo segment is～150years. The recurrence intervals of the Luhuo-Daofu and Daofu-Qianning segments are both～100years. The calculated tectonic stress accumulation amount show the value of the Qianning-Kangding segment is the highest, about7.46bar for the time span from the last characteristic earthquake to the next50years and10.95bar for the time span from the last characteristic earthquake to the next100years。 The second highest is the Zhuwo-Luhuo segment, whose maximum values is4.82bar and7.53bar respectively for the above two time span. The stress accumulation of the Kangding-Shimian segment is the lowest, about equal to half the value of the Qianning-Kangding segment.
The2008Wenchuan earthquake has an acceleration effect on the potential earthquakes of the Qianning-Kangding and Daofu-Qianning segment of the Xianshuihe fault. The maximum acceleration approximates4years. On the Kangding-Shimian segment, there is an outstanding delay effect. The maximum amount reaches7years. However, for the recurrence interval long for several hundred years, these influences are not obvious. The effect of the2010Yushu earthquake on the Xianshuihe fault can be omitted. In the next100years, the potential earthquakes on the Ganzi-Yushu fault, Longmenshan fault and Daliangshan fault have little effect on the recurrences of the characteristic earthquakes of the Xianshuihe fault. The potential earthquakes on the Anninghe fault have great effect on the recurrences of the characteristic earthquakes of the Xianshuihe fault. According to the stress drop of1MPa, the recurrence times of the potential earthquakes on the Zhuwo-Luhuo, Luhuo-Daofu, Daofu-Qianning, Qianning-Kangding and Kangding-Shimian segments are respectively in AD2158,2194,2143,2096and2243.
Finally, the aftershock regional seismic hazard assessments to the Wenchuan earthquake and Yushu earthquake are carried out. The results show the background seismic activity rate in the Yushu region is higher than the Longmenshan region. The aftershock duration time of the Wenchuan earthquake is～230years longer than the Yushu earthquake. The regions of the seismic activity increased mainly locate in～100km wide zone along the causative fault of the Wenchuan earthquake. The width for the Yushu earthquake is～10km.
引文
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