山东降水的多尺度性与地域特征研究
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摘要
降水是描述气候系统及其变化的关键要素之一,是气候系统各因子相互作用的综合体现。降水变化有高随机特点、多尺度特征,局地降水的气候问题通常着眼于降水量或距平的变化。降水不仅具有日、年固有的气候周期振荡,还有低频振荡,年际、年代际变化。本文主要关注山东降水气候形成的多尺度性,及其地域特征。山东雨季降水的季节内变化、年际变化都主要表现为全区一致性,夏季降水日变化、冬季降水存在显著的地域性。采用山东多年地面、高空观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和统计方法,根据气候变化固有和常现规律,从降水年序列中分解出年循环、季节变化、30—70d季节内振荡、10—28d月内振荡四种气候分量,并称其为气候模态。分析了不同尺度之间山东与周边地区降水的联系与差异,山东降水与东亚高空急流的关系；主雨季起讫、降水量及不同尺度分量方差贡献的异常变化,主雨季降水异常与环流低频振荡传播之间的关系。此外,还分析了降水的日变化及地域特征,冬季山东半岛和内陆降水的地域差异。深入分析一个地区降水的各气候分量,有利于把握气候变化规律,了解降水异常的气候背景,对提高降水预测和减灾防灾能力具有重要意义。
1)山东降水日变化具有地域性、季节性、年际变化特征,分为内陆型、半岛南部型和半岛北部型,内陆和半岛北部为双峰型,半岛南部为单峰型,夏季尤其7、8月降水日变化最为显著,偏涝年日变化接近气候平均,偏旱年偏离气候态较大。并提出夜间边界层惯性振荡易激发对流引起降水可能是夜间—清晨降水峰值形成的重要机制之一。
2)中国东部降水年循环体现了雨带自南向北的移动,季节变化清楚地反映了夏半年东部各区的主要雨季。山东与淮河流域、华北都只有一个雨季(即主雨季)。季节内振荡(CISO)尺度,4—7月山东与淮河流域步调一致,7月底—9月底二者各不相同；4—9月山东与华北北部呈反位相变化。月内尺度上,山东与华北北部8月上半月位相相反,而主雨季开始、结束时段振荡相位一致。山东降水与东亚高空急流各模态间有着密切关系,年循环和季节变化降水与东亚高空急流指数(EAWJI)呈现较为一致的反位相,夏季风活跃期间CISO尺度二者基本同步振荡。
3)山东5—9月夏半年降水相对冬半年存在明显的低频振荡,而且振幅起伏大。5—9月雨季降水主要存在三次突变,第一、三次突变对应着山东主雨季(即汛期)的起、讫时间。在年循环和季节变化背景下,月内尺度振荡对CISO的调制过程中导致降水突变,其中月内振荡起着决定作用。
4)主雨季降水量年代际变化明显,1975年之前降水偏多,21世纪开始降水持续偏多,期间约20年为偏旱期,出现中间旱、两头降水偏多的趋势。分离为年际和年代际尺度的降水量序列分别表现出显著的2—3a和11a周期振荡,年际变化两次突变发生在1976年和2005年前后,前一次突变与11a周期振荡关系密切,第二次突变由两个振荡周期共同调制所致。
5)历年各模态振幅和相位变化对于气候平均的偏离各不相同,方差贡献也不同,这也是导致主雨季降水年际变化大的根本原因。主雨季起讫时间与降水量异常有明确的统计相关关系。主雨季开始偏晚,主雨季降水量可能偏少：主雨季结束和持续时间与主雨季降水量显著正相关。主雨季开始、结束偏早／晚年主要发生在山东降水年代际偏旱时期,即偏早期主雨季起讫时间偏离气候平均幅度较大。
6)主雨季偏涝年北太平洋自春季出现较为明显的“南冷北暖”SSTA分布,并持续到秋季,可引起哈得莱环流显著减弱,其后夏季500hPa副高脊线位置偏北,导致降水明显偏多；反之亦然。主雨季偏涝年同期500hPa位势高度山东半岛至日本岛南部异常偏高,贝加尔湖和巴尔喀什湖南部区域位势高度异常偏低,表明副高易偏北,西风带多有低槽发展；200hPa位势高度沿40N有类似正CGT的波列存在,同时40°N以南／北西风急流分别表现为显著减弱／增强,即副热带急流偏北、加强。
7)主雨季降水量异常与年循环、季节变化方差贡献显著相关(超过99.9%),但主雨季降水的起伏、突变主要是由低频振荡决定的。典型偏涝年(1998)大气环流季节内振荡传播信号显著,季节内振荡降水峰值与经向风、纬向风经向在35°N附近、120°E附近峰值出现时间同步,经向风、纬向风传播位相一致。月内振荡这种同步存在阶段性。典型偏旱年(1999)则不然。旱、涝年大气环流低频振荡在纬向传播上差异显著,偏涝年不仅季节内振荡西传较强,月内振荡也同样比偏旱年明显。
8)山东内陆及周边包括华北地区冬季降水有很高的一致性,但半岛东北部有很强的地域特点。产生这一局地气候现象的原因并非单一的“半岛效应”,也不是主要由半岛地形所致。冬季风背景下大气环流的高低指数循环导致冷、暖位相交替,大地形和海陆分布在环渤黄海的低层大气形成区域性次天气尺度的定常扰动;中高层大气层结稳定,低层不稳定,海洋向大气输送热量和水汽,以浅对流形式在半岛东北部产生降水。
Precipitation caused by all kinds of elements interacting with each other in the climate system is one of the key elements in describing the climate system and its variability. The variation of precipitation shows a strong random and multi-timescale feature. The climate study of local precipitation usually focuses on precipitation or the variability of its deviation. The oscillation of precipitation shows a great range. It includes the high frequency oscillations, such as diurnal and annual, as well as the low frequency oscillations, i.e., inter-annual and inter-decadal. The present study mainly focuses on the multi-timescale variability and local features of precipitation of Shandong in climatology. In rainy seasons, the intra-seasonal and inter-decadal variations of precipitation show no difference in Shandong province. However, the diurnal variation of precipitation in summer and precipitation in winter shows evident local characteristics. Based on the inherent laws of climate change, four climatological patterns has been analyzed from the annual precipitation by using multi-year surface and upper air observations, reanalysis data from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) as well as statistical methods. The four patterns are annual cycle, seasonal variation,30to70-day intra-seasonal oscillation,10to28-day intra-monthly oscillation, which are named climatological modes. The correlation and difference of precipitation between Shandong province and its surrounding area are analyzed in terms of multi-timescale processes. The relationship between the precipitation in Shandong and east Asian high level jets was analyzed. The outset and end of flood seasons, the precipitation as well as the variation of the variance contribution in multi-timescale were analyzed. The relationship between the precipitation anomalies in main rainy seasons and low frequency oscillation transportation of atmospheric circulations was analyzed. Besides, the diurnal variation of precipitation and regional characteristics as well as the regional precipitation difference between Shandong peninsula and inland in winter were analyzed. It is very important for improving the capabilities of predicting rainfall and disaster prevention and mitigation to understand the rules of climate change and climate background of rainfall disaster.
1) The diurnal variation of precipitation in Shandong shows regional, seasonal and inter-annual characteristics. It can be classified into three types:inland type, southern peninsula type, northern peninsula type. It shows a twin-peak pattern in inland type and northern peninsula type, whereas in southern peninsula type, it shows a single-peak pattern. It also suggested that the diurnal variation of precipitation in summer, especially in July and August, varies significantly, of which in flood years it is close to multi-year mean level, whereas in drought years it is far away from the climatological mean level. The probably reason for forming the midnight-early morning peaks is analyzed.
2) The summits of annual cycle shows the northward advancement of the main precipitation belt, those of seasonal variation reflect main rainy seasons in different regions in east of China. There is only one main flood season in Shandong. Huaihe River Basin and North China. As for climatic intra-seasonal oscillation (CISO), Shandong and Huaihe River Basin have the same phase from April to Mid July, but different phase from late July to late September. In summer half year, CISOs of Shandong and north part of North China have reverse phase. For intra-monthly oscillation, precipitation have reverse phase in the first half of August and have similar phase at start and end at of the main flood season in Shandong and north part of North China. Precipitation of Shandong is closely related to atmosphere circulations in terms of any climate modes. East Asian westerly jet index(EAWJI). The phase of annual mode and seasonal mode is reverse to those of EAWJI. For CISO mode, precipitation and EAWJI have similar phase in summer half year.
3) The low-frequency oscillation of precipitation in Shandong in summer half year, i.e., May to September, is stronger than that in winter. Its amplitude in summer is bigger than that in winter. The precipitation in rainy season from May to September mainly shows three sudden changes. The first and third changes mark the outset and end date of the flood seasons in Shandong. Combining with the annual cycle and intra-seasonal variations, the fact that intra-monthly oscillations modulate CISO leads to these three changes. The intra-monthly oscillations play an essential role in these changes.
4) The inter-decadal variation of precipitation in main flood seasons varies significantly. Before1975, the precipitation is more than the mean level. In the following20years, the precipitation is less than the mean level. After2000, the precipitation is increasingly intensified. The periods of inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations of precipitation are2-3year and11-year, respectively. The two sudden changes of inter-annual variation of precipitation happened around1976and2005, respectively. The former is closely related to the11-year period oscillation. The later is caused by the interactions of two oscillations.
5) The deviations and variances of amplitudes and phases in every mode of the past years from the climatological mean level are different. This is the main reason for leading to the strong inter-annual variations of precipitation in the main rainy seasons. The start and end dates are statistically related to the precipitation anomalies. If the main rainy seasons start late, the precipitation is probably less than normal. The precipitation is positively related to the end date and the lasting time of the main rainy seasons. The deviation of the start and end dates of the main rainy seasons is larger in the drought years of the inter-decadal oscillation.
6) The distribution of Sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the north Pacific suggested that starting from spring, it is colder in the south and warmer in the north in the flood years of the main rainy seasons. The pattern lasted until fall and could probably lead to the weakening of the Hardley cell. Consequently, the subtropical high is located in higher latitudes in500-hPa in summer. Hence, this leads to more precipitation and vice versa. In500-hPa, the geopotential height is significantly higher from Shandong peninsula to south of Japan in the flood years of main rainy seasons. However, it is significantly lower from Lake Baikal to south of Lake Balkhash. It suggested that if the subtropical high is in higher latitudes, the troughs could easily develop in the westerly belt. The geopotential height in200-hPa along the40°N shows a positive CGT-like wave distribution. In the upper level of east Asian, the westerly jets are intensified north of40°N and weakened south of40°N.
7) The anomalies of precipitation in the flood seasons were significantly related to the variances of the annual cycle and seasonal change (>99.9%). However, the anomalies of precipitation in the main rainy seasons are mainly caused by the low frequency oscillation. In the typical flood year (1998), the transportation signal of the intra-seasonal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation is very significant. The precipitation peak of the intra-seasonal oscillation happened in the same time as the wind peaked at the (35°N,120°E). The phase of the zonal and meridional winds is consistent. However, the phenomena only happened in some period. In the typical drought years, the situation is different. The low-frequency oscillations of the atmosphere circulation in the drought and flood years show significant differences. In the flood years,it is that not only the westward transportation of the intra-seasonal oscillation, but also of the intra-monthly oscillations is more obvious than that in the drought years.
8) Precipitation in winter in Shandong inland and its surrounding area, especially northern China, shows great consistency, whereas in the northeastern area of Shandong peninsula precipitation has local characteristics. The local climatology phenomena is not only caused by the so-called "peninsula effect" and the peninsula topography. The regional sub-synoptic scale constant disturbance formed in the lower-level atmosphere of the Yellow and Bohai Seas caused by the continental topography and land-sea distribution plays an important role in the local climatology phenomena. The following configuration, such as stable middle and upper atmospheric layer, unstable low level atmosphere layer, moistures and heat transported from ocean to atmosphere, leads to the precipitation in the northeastern Shandong peninsula due to the shallow convection.
1)山东降水日变化具有地域性、季节性、年际变化特征,分为内陆型、半岛南部型和半岛北部型,内陆和半岛北部为双峰型,半岛南部为单峰型,夏季尤其7、8月降水日变化最为显著,偏涝年日变化接近气候平均,偏旱年偏离气候态较大。并提出夜间边界层惯性振荡易激发对流引起降水可能是夜间—清晨降水峰值形成的重要机制之一。
2)中国东部降水年循环体现了雨带自南向北的移动,季节变化清楚地反映了夏半年东部各区的主要雨季。山东与淮河流域、华北都只有一个雨季(即主雨季)。季节内振荡(CISO)尺度,4—7月山东与淮河流域步调一致,7月底—9月底二者各不相同；4—9月山东与华北北部呈反位相变化。月内尺度上,山东与华北北部8月上半月位相相反,而主雨季开始、结束时段振荡相位一致。山东降水与东亚高空急流各模态间有着密切关系,年循环和季节变化降水与东亚高空急流指数(EAWJI)呈现较为一致的反位相,夏季风活跃期间CISO尺度二者基本同步振荡。
3)山东5—9月夏半年降水相对冬半年存在明显的低频振荡,而且振幅起伏大。5—9月雨季降水主要存在三次突变,第一、三次突变对应着山东主雨季(即汛期)的起、讫时间。在年循环和季节变化背景下,月内尺度振荡对CISO的调制过程中导致降水突变,其中月内振荡起着决定作用。
4)主雨季降水量年代际变化明显,1975年之前降水偏多,21世纪开始降水持续偏多,期间约20年为偏旱期,出现中间旱、两头降水偏多的趋势。分离为年际和年代际尺度的降水量序列分别表现出显著的2—3a和11a周期振荡,年际变化两次突变发生在1976年和2005年前后,前一次突变与11a周期振荡关系密切,第二次突变由两个振荡周期共同调制所致。
5)历年各模态振幅和相位变化对于气候平均的偏离各不相同,方差贡献也不同,这也是导致主雨季降水年际变化大的根本原因。主雨季起讫时间与降水量异常有明确的统计相关关系。主雨季开始偏晚,主雨季降水量可能偏少：主雨季结束和持续时间与主雨季降水量显著正相关。主雨季开始、结束偏早／晚年主要发生在山东降水年代际偏旱时期,即偏早期主雨季起讫时间偏离气候平均幅度较大。
6)主雨季偏涝年北太平洋自春季出现较为明显的“南冷北暖”SSTA分布,并持续到秋季,可引起哈得莱环流显著减弱,其后夏季500hPa副高脊线位置偏北,导致降水明显偏多；反之亦然。主雨季偏涝年同期500hPa位势高度山东半岛至日本岛南部异常偏高,贝加尔湖和巴尔喀什湖南部区域位势高度异常偏低,表明副高易偏北,西风带多有低槽发展；200hPa位势高度沿40N有类似正CGT的波列存在,同时40°N以南／北西风急流分别表现为显著减弱／增强,即副热带急流偏北、加强。
7)主雨季降水量异常与年循环、季节变化方差贡献显著相关(超过99.9%),但主雨季降水的起伏、突变主要是由低频振荡决定的。典型偏涝年(1998)大气环流季节内振荡传播信号显著,季节内振荡降水峰值与经向风、纬向风经向在35°N附近、120°E附近峰值出现时间同步,经向风、纬向风传播位相一致。月内振荡这种同步存在阶段性。典型偏旱年(1999)则不然。旱、涝年大气环流低频振荡在纬向传播上差异显著,偏涝年不仅季节内振荡西传较强,月内振荡也同样比偏旱年明显。
8)山东内陆及周边包括华北地区冬季降水有很高的一致性,但半岛东北部有很强的地域特点。产生这一局地气候现象的原因并非单一的“半岛效应”,也不是主要由半岛地形所致。冬季风背景下大气环流的高低指数循环导致冷、暖位相交替,大地形和海陆分布在环渤黄海的低层大气形成区域性次天气尺度的定常扰动;中高层大气层结稳定,低层不稳定,海洋向大气输送热量和水汽,以浅对流形式在半岛东北部产生降水。
Precipitation caused by all kinds of elements interacting with each other in the climate system is one of the key elements in describing the climate system and its variability. The variation of precipitation shows a strong random and multi-timescale feature. The climate study of local precipitation usually focuses on precipitation or the variability of its deviation. The oscillation of precipitation shows a great range. It includes the high frequency oscillations, such as diurnal and annual, as well as the low frequency oscillations, i.e., inter-annual and inter-decadal. The present study mainly focuses on the multi-timescale variability and local features of precipitation of Shandong in climatology. In rainy seasons, the intra-seasonal and inter-decadal variations of precipitation show no difference in Shandong province. However, the diurnal variation of precipitation in summer and precipitation in winter shows evident local characteristics. Based on the inherent laws of climate change, four climatological patterns has been analyzed from the annual precipitation by using multi-year surface and upper air observations, reanalysis data from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) as well as statistical methods. The four patterns are annual cycle, seasonal variation,30to70-day intra-seasonal oscillation,10to28-day intra-monthly oscillation, which are named climatological modes. The correlation and difference of precipitation between Shandong province and its surrounding area are analyzed in terms of multi-timescale processes. The relationship between the precipitation in Shandong and east Asian high level jets was analyzed. The outset and end of flood seasons, the precipitation as well as the variation of the variance contribution in multi-timescale were analyzed. The relationship between the precipitation anomalies in main rainy seasons and low frequency oscillation transportation of atmospheric circulations was analyzed. Besides, the diurnal variation of precipitation and regional characteristics as well as the regional precipitation difference between Shandong peninsula and inland in winter were analyzed. It is very important for improving the capabilities of predicting rainfall and disaster prevention and mitigation to understand the rules of climate change and climate background of rainfall disaster.
1) The diurnal variation of precipitation in Shandong shows regional, seasonal and inter-annual characteristics. It can be classified into three types:inland type, southern peninsula type, northern peninsula type. It shows a twin-peak pattern in inland type and northern peninsula type, whereas in southern peninsula type, it shows a single-peak pattern. It also suggested that the diurnal variation of precipitation in summer, especially in July and August, varies significantly, of which in flood years it is close to multi-year mean level, whereas in drought years it is far away from the climatological mean level. The probably reason for forming the midnight-early morning peaks is analyzed.
2) The summits of annual cycle shows the northward advancement of the main precipitation belt, those of seasonal variation reflect main rainy seasons in different regions in east of China. There is only one main flood season in Shandong. Huaihe River Basin and North China. As for climatic intra-seasonal oscillation (CISO), Shandong and Huaihe River Basin have the same phase from April to Mid July, but different phase from late July to late September. In summer half year, CISOs of Shandong and north part of North China have reverse phase. For intra-monthly oscillation, precipitation have reverse phase in the first half of August and have similar phase at start and end at of the main flood season in Shandong and north part of North China. Precipitation of Shandong is closely related to atmosphere circulations in terms of any climate modes. East Asian westerly jet index(EAWJI). The phase of annual mode and seasonal mode is reverse to those of EAWJI. For CISO mode, precipitation and EAWJI have similar phase in summer half year.
3) The low-frequency oscillation of precipitation in Shandong in summer half year, i.e., May to September, is stronger than that in winter. Its amplitude in summer is bigger than that in winter. The precipitation in rainy season from May to September mainly shows three sudden changes. The first and third changes mark the outset and end date of the flood seasons in Shandong. Combining with the annual cycle and intra-seasonal variations, the fact that intra-monthly oscillations modulate CISO leads to these three changes. The intra-monthly oscillations play an essential role in these changes.
4) The inter-decadal variation of precipitation in main flood seasons varies significantly. Before1975, the precipitation is more than the mean level. In the following20years, the precipitation is less than the mean level. After2000, the precipitation is increasingly intensified. The periods of inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations of precipitation are2-3year and11-year, respectively. The two sudden changes of inter-annual variation of precipitation happened around1976and2005, respectively. The former is closely related to the11-year period oscillation. The later is caused by the interactions of two oscillations.
5) The deviations and variances of amplitudes and phases in every mode of the past years from the climatological mean level are different. This is the main reason for leading to the strong inter-annual variations of precipitation in the main rainy seasons. The start and end dates are statistically related to the precipitation anomalies. If the main rainy seasons start late, the precipitation is probably less than normal. The precipitation is positively related to the end date and the lasting time of the main rainy seasons. The deviation of the start and end dates of the main rainy seasons is larger in the drought years of the inter-decadal oscillation.
6) The distribution of Sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the north Pacific suggested that starting from spring, it is colder in the south and warmer in the north in the flood years of the main rainy seasons. The pattern lasted until fall and could probably lead to the weakening of the Hardley cell. Consequently, the subtropical high is located in higher latitudes in500-hPa in summer. Hence, this leads to more precipitation and vice versa. In500-hPa, the geopotential height is significantly higher from Shandong peninsula to south of Japan in the flood years of main rainy seasons. However, it is significantly lower from Lake Baikal to south of Lake Balkhash. It suggested that if the subtropical high is in higher latitudes, the troughs could easily develop in the westerly belt. The geopotential height in200-hPa along the40°N shows a positive CGT-like wave distribution. In the upper level of east Asian, the westerly jets are intensified north of40°N and weakened south of40°N.
7) The anomalies of precipitation in the flood seasons were significantly related to the variances of the annual cycle and seasonal change (>99.9%). However, the anomalies of precipitation in the main rainy seasons are mainly caused by the low frequency oscillation. In the typical flood year (1998), the transportation signal of the intra-seasonal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation is very significant. The precipitation peak of the intra-seasonal oscillation happened in the same time as the wind peaked at the (35°N,120°E). The phase of the zonal and meridional winds is consistent. However, the phenomena only happened in some period. In the typical drought years, the situation is different. The low-frequency oscillations of the atmosphere circulation in the drought and flood years show significant differences. In the flood years,it is that not only the westward transportation of the intra-seasonal oscillation, but also of the intra-monthly oscillations is more obvious than that in the drought years.
8) Precipitation in winter in Shandong inland and its surrounding area, especially northern China, shows great consistency, whereas in the northeastern area of Shandong peninsula precipitation has local characteristics. The local climatology phenomena is not only caused by the so-called "peninsula effect" and the peninsula topography. The regional sub-synoptic scale constant disturbance formed in the lower-level atmosphere of the Yellow and Bohai Seas caused by the continental topography and land-sea distribution plays an important role in the local climatology phenomena. The following configuration, such as stable middle and upper atmospheric layer, unstable low level atmosphere layer, moistures and heat transported from ocean to atmosphere, leads to the precipitation in the northeastern Shandong peninsula due to the shallow convection.
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