中国电信业生产率及其增长研究
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摘要
过去几十年中，全球通信行业都保持了稳定高速发展态势，信息技术和电信产业的发展加快全球化和世界经济发展的步伐，卫星、光学纤维、移动通信技术以及因特网和万维网的不断进步大大地改善了全球通信状况，降低通信成本，增进各地区交流合作，促进生产和市场全球化运作。中国从上世纪90年代开始对电信业进行了一系列重大改革，通过多次拆分重组引入竞争机制。2008年将中国电信、中国网通、中国移动、中国联通、中国卫通、中国铁通6家基础电信企业重新拆分整合重组为中国移动、中国联通和中国电信三家，这是继1994年成立中国联通以推动双寡头竞争格局，1999年中国移动从中国电信剥离和2001年南北拆分中国电信打破固网单一垄断后，更大规模的电信市场重组。重组之后全行业继续保持健康平稳运行，2011年，全行业实现电信业务总量11772亿元，实现电信业务收入9880亿元，全国电话用户净增1.18亿户，总数累计达到12.7亿户，互联网宽带接入用户达到1.56亿户，新增3020万户。但是目前电信业仍然存在一些突出矛盾和问题，而且面临经济社会发展的新形势，给电信业的发展提出了更高要求。所以，对中国电信业生产率的实证研究就显得极为重要，既扩展电信业理论研究的内涵，又对中国电信业健康有序发展具有重要的现实意义。
因此，本文在对大量国内外相关文献进行阅读、梳理、整理的基础上，坚持定性研究与定量研究相结合、实证研究与规范研究相结合的原则，将非参数测度方法引入到电信业生产率研究中，对中国电信业生产率与生产率增长进行研究。在数据的调研方面采取文献调查、社会调查和专家咨询的方式，在数据计算处理方面，综合运用Eviews5.1软件、Deap2.1软件、SPSS19.0软件对数据进行辅助运算分析。
本文研究主要分为三个主体部分，第一部分为理论基础研究及现状分析，第二部分为实证研究，第三部分提出对策建议。
第一部分，理论研究及现状分析。本部分是本文的理论基础和现实依据，为后续研究提供支撑。
1、相关理论与方法综述，首先从生产率的定义入手，阐明本文研究的内容；其次对效率、生产率及其生产率增长的测量进行说明，最后简单归纳生产率的测度方法。
2、中国电信业发展历程及现状分析。首先明确电信业的基本概念，从电信的定义入手，深入挖掘电信业的内涵，明确本文研究对象为狭义的电信业——电信运营服务业，在此基础上对电信业的经济特征和服务功能进行深入分析。其次，将中国电信业的发展历程分为五个阶段进行分析，从电信运营商角度分析中国电信业的市场结构，并总结中国电信业发展的主要特点。最后，从基础电信业务、增值电信业务、电信网络能力、固定资产投资、经营效益、地域发展差异、省级电信业发展及基础电信运营商等角度对中国电信业的发展现状做深入剖析。
第二部分，实证研究。本部分是全文的重点内容，也是本文研究的难点所在，得出本文的主要研究结论，是论文的核心部分。
1、中国电信业资本存量及对国民经济贡献研究。首先运用永续盘存法对中国电信业资本存量进行测算，并给出1952—2010年的电信业资本存量序列，到2010年资本存量已经突破9千亿元。其次，从电信业的直接贡献率、对其他产业的拉动作用及电信业价格对CPI的下拉作用等三个方面深入研究中国电信业对国民经济的直接贡献。最后，运用菲德模型测算中国电信业对国民经济的间接贡献，计算得到电信业每增加1个单位的产出，国民经济最终将增加3.007单位的产出。
2、中国电信业生产率测度实证研究。使用DEA方法中的CCR和BCC模型对中国电信业生产率进行测度。首先，用时间序列数据研究中国电信业在1983—2010年的28年间的生产率变化，看到这些年中国电信业生产率在逐步提高，到2010年达到最佳效率水平，研究认为中国电信业改革卓有成效，并且证实引入竞争可以促进技术进步的论断。其次，用中国大陆的31个省、直辖市和自治区电信业2003—2010年的面板数据作为研究样本，研究中国省际电信业生产率，看到各省电信业发展不平衡，生产率高低不一，所以不同区域不同省份电信业发展采取的措施应该不同。
3、中国电信业生产率增长率测度实证研究。使用Malmquist生产率指数来测度我国31个省电信业2003—2010年TFP（全要素生产率）增长率，从时间角度和地域角度进行分析，结论显示各省电信业生产率呈现持续增长态势，而且在全要素生产率变动的构成中，技术进步对TFP增长的贡献更大，但是处于不同区域的各省电信业发展程度还是各不相同，进而不同区域不同省份电信业进一步发展需要采取的措施应该不同。
第三部分，对策建议。本文的最终落脚点，针对实证研究所得结论及存在问题提出可行的对策。一方面从电信行业内部指出其发展重点，一是加快信息网络演进升级，统筹信息网络整体布局；二是全面深化信息服务应用，培育壮大新兴服务业态；三是推进三网融合全面展开，加快物联网产业化进程；四是提升安全应急保障能力，推进信息网络绿色发展。另一方面从电信政策环境角度提出几点保障措施，第一，加强战略规划指导，优化行业发展环境；第二，加大财税金融支持，完善普遍服务机制；第三，强化电信资源管理，完善市场监管体系；第四，加强国际合作交流，加强人才队伍建设。
本文研究具有一定的理论和现实意义，但是由于研究时间和资源等方面的限制，本文研究还是存在诸多不足之处。对研究方向、研究对象、研究过程及研究结论进行反观思考，作者认为从中国电信业和其他国家电信业进行对比性研究，电信业投资、电信业发展与经济增长之间的关系，以及电信业技术进步、技术创新、技术标准化、技术轨道变迁等方面都可以进行进一步的深入研究。
In the past few decades, Global communications industries have been maintaining asteady high-speed development momentum. The development of information technologyand telecommunications industry has speeded up the pace of the globalization and thedevelopment of the world economy. Satellite, optical fiber, mobile communicationtechnology and the advance of the Internet and World Wide Web have greatly improvedcommunication around the world, reduced the cost of communication, enhanced exchangesand cooperation among regions,enhanced exchanges and cooperation among regions,promoted the globalization of production and market operation.
Since the1990s, China has begun a series of major reforms of the telecommunicationsindustry through many times of split, reorganization and the introduction of competitionmechanism. In2008, the six basic telecommunications enterprises called China Telecom,China Netcom, China Mobile, China Unicom, China Satcom, China Railcom integrate andrestructure to split for China mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. This is a largertelecommunications market restructuring since the establishment of China Unicom in1994to promote the duopoly competition pattern, the stripping of China Mobile from ChinaTelecom in1999and the North-south split of China telecom to break the single fixed-linemonopoly in2001. The industry continues to maintain developing healthily and placidlyafter restructuring. In2011, the industry earns1.1772trillion yuan from the volume oftelecom business, brings in988billion yuan as the income of telecom business, increases118million users of the national telephone, reaches the total number of1.27billion unitsand156million access subscribers of Internet broadbanding including30.2million newusers.
But now there are still some outstanding contradictions and problems intelecommunications industry which facing new situation of economic and socialdevelopment. So, it is extremely important for the empirical study of efficiency andproductivity in the Chinese telecom sector. It both expands the connotation of theoreticalstudy in telecommunication industry, and has important practical significance on healthyand orderly development of China telecom.
Therefore, based on a large number of reading, combing and sorting about relatedliterature at home and abroad, insisting on the principle of combining qualitative researchand quantitative research, combining empirical study and normative study, this paper bring in the nonparametric measure method to the study of efficiency and productivity intelecommunications industry and study of efficiency and productivity growth of Chinesetelecom industry production. It takes the way of literature investigation, social investigationand expert consultation in the research of data, and integrated the use of Eviews5.1software, Deap2.1software, SPSS19.0operation to auxiliary software for data analysis inthe aspect of data processing.
This paper mainly divides into three main parts, the first part is the theoretical basisfor research and analysis of present situation, the second part is the empirical research, thethird part puts forward countermeasures and suggestions.
The first part is theoretical research and the present situation analysis. This part is thetheoretical basis and reality basis of the paper, providing support for following study.
1. The productivity theory and methods review. It describes productivity and themeasure of productivity from three aspects of the definition, development and classificationof productivity.
2. The development course of China's telecommunications industry and analysis ofpresent situation. For one thing, this chapter clears the basic concepts of the telecomindustry, digs the connotation of the telecommunications industry from the definition oftelecom, makes sure the research object for the special industry--Telecom service industry,and analyses on the economic characteristics and the service function of thetelecommunications industry. For another, China's telecommunications industrydevelopment can be analyzed as five stages. It analyses the market structure of Chinatelecom from the perspectives of telecom operators, and summarizes the maincharacteristics of China's telecommunications industry development. Finally, the paper hasfurther analysis of the development of China's telecommunications industry status quofrom the basic telecom business, value-added telecom business, telecommunicationsnetwork capacity, investment in fixed assets, the management benefit, the difference ofregional development, the provincial telecommunications development and basic telecomoperators and so on.
The second part is the empirical research. This part is the focus of the full text content,it also is the difficulty of this study, the main research conclusion of this article and thepaper's core part.
1. The research of China’s telecommunications industry capital stock and contributionto national economy. First, it measures the capital stock of China telecom by using theperpetual inventory method, gives sequence of industry's capital stock from1952to2010, and the capital stock has reached to900billion yuan by2010.Second, it studies in-depththe direct contribution from telecoms to the national economy from three aspects: the directcontribution from telecoms, pull role for other industries and telecommunications priceseffect on CPI drop-down.Finally,it measures the indirect contribution from China telecomsto the national economy by using the German model. The national economy is calculatedthat it will eventually increases3.007units of output when Chinese telecom industryincreases for every1unit of output.
2. The empirical research of China's telecommunications industry productivitymeasuring. This paper measures production efficiency of China's telecom industry by usingDEA method in the CCR and BCC model. First of all, the productivity change of Chinatelecom industry were studied with time series data from1983to2010about28years, theproduction efficiency of China telecom gradually improved these years, and to achieve thebest efficiency level in2010, China telecom reform was considered fruitful through theresearch, and was confirmed that the competition can promote technological progress.Second, it studies China's provincial telecom production efficiency by taking the2003-2010panel dates of the31provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions inmainland China telecom as the research sample, finds out the unbalanced development anddifferent production efficiency of the provincial telecommunications, so thetelecommunications industry development of different provinces and regions should takedifferent measures.
3. The empirical research of China's telecoms sector productivity growth measuring.The paper measures the growth rate of TFP (total factor productivity)of China telecomindustry in the31provinces during2003-2010by using the Malmquist productivity index,carries on the analysis from the perspective of time and geography angle, the conclusionshows that the provincial telecommunications productivity continues to grow, andtechnological progress's contribution to the TFP growth is bigger in the composition oftotal factor productivity change, but the development degree of the provincial telecom indifferent areas, then the telecom industry of different provinces and regions should takedifferent measures for further development.
The third part is countermeasures and suggestions. Final foothold of this paper isputting forward feasible countermeasures in view of the conclusion of empirical researchand existing problems. On the one hand, this paper points out focal points of thedevelopment within the telecommunications industry, one is to speed up the informationnetwork evolution, and plan the layout of information network as a whole; two is to comprehensively deepen the information service application, cultivate and grow emergingservice business; Three is to promote three nets fusion, and accelerate the industrializationprocess of the Internet of things; four is to promote safety emergency support capability,and promote the green development of information network. On the other hand, someguarantee measures are put forward from telecom policy environment angle, first,strengthen strategic planning guidance, and optimize industry development environment;second, increase tax financial support, and improve the universal service mechanism; third,strengthen the telecom resource management, and perfect the market regulation system;fourth, strengthen international cooperation and exchange, to strengthen the construction oftalent team.
This article has certain theoretical and practical significance, but this study still hasmany deficiencies because of the limitation of research time and resources. From thethinking of research direction, research objects, research process and research results, theauthor thinks if comparative research of telecommunication from China telecom and othercountries was carried on, telecom industry investment, industry development and therelationship between economic growth, and the industry technological progress,technological innovation, technology standardization, technological change can be furtherstudied in-depth.
因此，本文在对大量国内外相关文献进行阅读、梳理、整理的基础上，坚持定性研究与定量研究相结合、实证研究与规范研究相结合的原则，将非参数测度方法引入到电信业生产率研究中，对中国电信业生产率与生产率增长进行研究。在数据的调研方面采取文献调查、社会调查和专家咨询的方式，在数据计算处理方面，综合运用Eviews5.1软件、Deap2.1软件、SPSS19.0软件对数据进行辅助运算分析。
本文研究主要分为三个主体部分，第一部分为理论基础研究及现状分析，第二部分为实证研究，第三部分提出对策建议。
第一部分，理论研究及现状分析。本部分是本文的理论基础和现实依据，为后续研究提供支撑。
1、相关理论与方法综述，首先从生产率的定义入手，阐明本文研究的内容；其次对效率、生产率及其生产率增长的测量进行说明，最后简单归纳生产率的测度方法。
2、中国电信业发展历程及现状分析。首先明确电信业的基本概念，从电信的定义入手，深入挖掘电信业的内涵，明确本文研究对象为狭义的电信业——电信运营服务业，在此基础上对电信业的经济特征和服务功能进行深入分析。其次，将中国电信业的发展历程分为五个阶段进行分析，从电信运营商角度分析中国电信业的市场结构，并总结中国电信业发展的主要特点。最后，从基础电信业务、增值电信业务、电信网络能力、固定资产投资、经营效益、地域发展差异、省级电信业发展及基础电信运营商等角度对中国电信业的发展现状做深入剖析。
第二部分，实证研究。本部分是全文的重点内容，也是本文研究的难点所在，得出本文的主要研究结论，是论文的核心部分。
1、中国电信业资本存量及对国民经济贡献研究。首先运用永续盘存法对中国电信业资本存量进行测算，并给出1952—2010年的电信业资本存量序列，到2010年资本存量已经突破9千亿元。其次，从电信业的直接贡献率、对其他产业的拉动作用及电信业价格对CPI的下拉作用等三个方面深入研究中国电信业对国民经济的直接贡献。最后，运用菲德模型测算中国电信业对国民经济的间接贡献，计算得到电信业每增加1个单位的产出，国民经济最终将增加3.007单位的产出。
2、中国电信业生产率测度实证研究。使用DEA方法中的CCR和BCC模型对中国电信业生产率进行测度。首先，用时间序列数据研究中国电信业在1983—2010年的28年间的生产率变化，看到这些年中国电信业生产率在逐步提高，到2010年达到最佳效率水平，研究认为中国电信业改革卓有成效，并且证实引入竞争可以促进技术进步的论断。其次，用中国大陆的31个省、直辖市和自治区电信业2003—2010年的面板数据作为研究样本，研究中国省际电信业生产率，看到各省电信业发展不平衡，生产率高低不一，所以不同区域不同省份电信业发展采取的措施应该不同。
3、中国电信业生产率增长率测度实证研究。使用Malmquist生产率指数来测度我国31个省电信业2003—2010年TFP（全要素生产率）增长率，从时间角度和地域角度进行分析，结论显示各省电信业生产率呈现持续增长态势，而且在全要素生产率变动的构成中，技术进步对TFP增长的贡献更大，但是处于不同区域的各省电信业发展程度还是各不相同，进而不同区域不同省份电信业进一步发展需要采取的措施应该不同。
第三部分，对策建议。本文的最终落脚点，针对实证研究所得结论及存在问题提出可行的对策。一方面从电信行业内部指出其发展重点，一是加快信息网络演进升级，统筹信息网络整体布局；二是全面深化信息服务应用，培育壮大新兴服务业态；三是推进三网融合全面展开，加快物联网产业化进程；四是提升安全应急保障能力，推进信息网络绿色发展。另一方面从电信政策环境角度提出几点保障措施，第一，加强战略规划指导，优化行业发展环境；第二，加大财税金融支持，完善普遍服务机制；第三，强化电信资源管理，完善市场监管体系；第四，加强国际合作交流，加强人才队伍建设。
本文研究具有一定的理论和现实意义，但是由于研究时间和资源等方面的限制，本文研究还是存在诸多不足之处。对研究方向、研究对象、研究过程及研究结论进行反观思考，作者认为从中国电信业和其他国家电信业进行对比性研究，电信业投资、电信业发展与经济增长之间的关系，以及电信业技术进步、技术创新、技术标准化、技术轨道变迁等方面都可以进行进一步的深入研究。
In the past few decades, Global communications industries have been maintaining asteady high-speed development momentum. The development of information technologyand telecommunications industry has speeded up the pace of the globalization and thedevelopment of the world economy. Satellite, optical fiber, mobile communicationtechnology and the advance of the Internet and World Wide Web have greatly improvedcommunication around the world, reduced the cost of communication, enhanced exchangesand cooperation among regions,enhanced exchanges and cooperation among regions,promoted the globalization of production and market operation.
Since the1990s, China has begun a series of major reforms of the telecommunicationsindustry through many times of split, reorganization and the introduction of competitionmechanism. In2008, the six basic telecommunications enterprises called China Telecom,China Netcom, China Mobile, China Unicom, China Satcom, China Railcom integrate andrestructure to split for China mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. This is a largertelecommunications market restructuring since the establishment of China Unicom in1994to promote the duopoly competition pattern, the stripping of China Mobile from ChinaTelecom in1999and the North-south split of China telecom to break the single fixed-linemonopoly in2001. The industry continues to maintain developing healthily and placidlyafter restructuring. In2011, the industry earns1.1772trillion yuan from the volume oftelecom business, brings in988billion yuan as the income of telecom business, increases118million users of the national telephone, reaches the total number of1.27billion unitsand156million access subscribers of Internet broadbanding including30.2million newusers.
But now there are still some outstanding contradictions and problems intelecommunications industry which facing new situation of economic and socialdevelopment. So, it is extremely important for the empirical study of efficiency andproductivity in the Chinese telecom sector. It both expands the connotation of theoreticalstudy in telecommunication industry, and has important practical significance on healthyand orderly development of China telecom.
Therefore, based on a large number of reading, combing and sorting about relatedliterature at home and abroad, insisting on the principle of combining qualitative researchand quantitative research, combining empirical study and normative study, this paper bring in the nonparametric measure method to the study of efficiency and productivity intelecommunications industry and study of efficiency and productivity growth of Chinesetelecom industry production. It takes the way of literature investigation, social investigationand expert consultation in the research of data, and integrated the use of Eviews5.1software, Deap2.1software, SPSS19.0operation to auxiliary software for data analysis inthe aspect of data processing.
This paper mainly divides into three main parts, the first part is the theoretical basisfor research and analysis of present situation, the second part is the empirical research, thethird part puts forward countermeasures and suggestions.
The first part is theoretical research and the present situation analysis. This part is thetheoretical basis and reality basis of the paper, providing support for following study.
1. The productivity theory and methods review. It describes productivity and themeasure of productivity from three aspects of the definition, development and classificationof productivity.
2. The development course of China's telecommunications industry and analysis ofpresent situation. For one thing, this chapter clears the basic concepts of the telecomindustry, digs the connotation of the telecommunications industry from the definition oftelecom, makes sure the research object for the special industry--Telecom service industry,and analyses on the economic characteristics and the service function of thetelecommunications industry. For another, China's telecommunications industrydevelopment can be analyzed as five stages. It analyses the market structure of Chinatelecom from the perspectives of telecom operators, and summarizes the maincharacteristics of China's telecommunications industry development. Finally, the paper hasfurther analysis of the development of China's telecommunications industry status quofrom the basic telecom business, value-added telecom business, telecommunicationsnetwork capacity, investment in fixed assets, the management benefit, the difference ofregional development, the provincial telecommunications development and basic telecomoperators and so on.
The second part is the empirical research. This part is the focus of the full text content,it also is the difficulty of this study, the main research conclusion of this article and thepaper's core part.
1. The research of China’s telecommunications industry capital stock and contributionto national economy. First, it measures the capital stock of China telecom by using theperpetual inventory method, gives sequence of industry's capital stock from1952to2010, and the capital stock has reached to900billion yuan by2010.Second, it studies in-depththe direct contribution from telecoms to the national economy from three aspects: the directcontribution from telecoms, pull role for other industries and telecommunications priceseffect on CPI drop-down.Finally,it measures the indirect contribution from China telecomsto the national economy by using the German model. The national economy is calculatedthat it will eventually increases3.007units of output when Chinese telecom industryincreases for every1unit of output.
2. The empirical research of China's telecommunications industry productivitymeasuring. This paper measures production efficiency of China's telecom industry by usingDEA method in the CCR and BCC model. First of all, the productivity change of Chinatelecom industry were studied with time series data from1983to2010about28years, theproduction efficiency of China telecom gradually improved these years, and to achieve thebest efficiency level in2010, China telecom reform was considered fruitful through theresearch, and was confirmed that the competition can promote technological progress.Second, it studies China's provincial telecom production efficiency by taking the2003-2010panel dates of the31provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions inmainland China telecom as the research sample, finds out the unbalanced development anddifferent production efficiency of the provincial telecommunications, so thetelecommunications industry development of different provinces and regions should takedifferent measures.
3. The empirical research of China's telecoms sector productivity growth measuring.The paper measures the growth rate of TFP (total factor productivity)of China telecomindustry in the31provinces during2003-2010by using the Malmquist productivity index,carries on the analysis from the perspective of time and geography angle, the conclusionshows that the provincial telecommunications productivity continues to grow, andtechnological progress's contribution to the TFP growth is bigger in the composition oftotal factor productivity change, but the development degree of the provincial telecom indifferent areas, then the telecom industry of different provinces and regions should takedifferent measures for further development.
The third part is countermeasures and suggestions. Final foothold of this paper isputting forward feasible countermeasures in view of the conclusion of empirical researchand existing problems. On the one hand, this paper points out focal points of thedevelopment within the telecommunications industry, one is to speed up the informationnetwork evolution, and plan the layout of information network as a whole; two is to comprehensively deepen the information service application, cultivate and grow emergingservice business; Three is to promote three nets fusion, and accelerate the industrializationprocess of the Internet of things; four is to promote safety emergency support capability,and promote the green development of information network. On the other hand, someguarantee measures are put forward from telecom policy environment angle, first,strengthen strategic planning guidance, and optimize industry development environment;second, increase tax financial support, and improve the universal service mechanism; third,strengthen the telecom resource management, and perfect the market regulation system;fourth, strengthen international cooperation and exchange, to strengthen the construction oftalent team.
This article has certain theoretical and practical significance, but this study still hasmany deficiencies because of the limitation of research time and resources. From thethinking of research direction, research objects, research process and research results, theauthor thinks if comparative research of telecommunication from China telecom and othercountries was carried on, telecom industry investment, industry development and therelationship between economic growth, and the industry technological progress,technological innovation, technology standardization, technological change can be furtherstudied in-depth.
引文
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