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基于财务决策视角的企业内在价值评价方法研究
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摘要
企业价值(Enterprise Value,EV)是衡量企业业绩与整体质量好坏最准确、最全面的指标,企业价值评价是将企业看做一个经营整体,评价其进行交易时的交换价值,它逐渐成为现代资产评估业的一个重要发展方向。企业价值在不同的条件下有不同的表现形式并体现为不同的价值形态,分为:企业账面价值、公允价值、清算价值和内在价值。其中,企业内在价值是企业投资的基础,体现了企业未来的收益能力。近年来,随着企业财务目标逐渐由利润最大化向企业价值最大化的转变,企业内在价值也越来越成为企业各部门关注的核心内容。企业内在价值的评价与科学有效的财务决策有着紧密的联系,不同水平的决策会带来不同的利益与风险,科学的财务决策能够分化一切不利因素,高水平运用资金,实现企业的可持续发展。
     日本很早就开始关注企业内在价值评价方面的研究,20世纪50年代中后期以来,日本各界针对企业内在价值理论、价值创造、企业内在价值评价等多方面展开了系统的研究。由于日本企业的重组、兼并、破产清算以及整个企业的出售及转让都处于高度频繁状态,这些活动都涉及到企业内在价值评价,因此,导致企业内在价值评价在日本得到了广泛的实践应用。迄今为止,日本对企业内在价值评价的理论研究和实证研究已经达到了较高的水平。本人于2011年—2012年度作为国家公派项目联合培养博士赴日本北海道大学经济学部留学,期间主要进行理论基础上的实践分析。
     在此背景下,本文通过对企业价值及其评价、企业内在价值及其评价以及财务分析与企业内在价值评价等相关理论及文献研究的回顾、梳理和归纳,理清了财务决策视角下的企业内在价值评价的理论脉络,并提出了基于财务决策视角的企业内在价值评价方法。在研究思路方面,本文首先从财务核算的角度对企业内在价值的概念进行界定,确定企业内在价值的评价指标,并基于财务决策视角对企业内在价值评价进行概述及分析;其次,根据现有的三种常用的评价企业内在价值方法对上市企业进行实际应用,并对评价结果进行对比分析,总结出每种方法在实际应用中存在的问题;再次,根据现有方法的优缺点提出基于财务决策的企业内在价值评价方法,并对该方法中相关参数的确定进行了概括,从而对方法进行完善;最后,对基于财务决策视角的企业内在价值评价方法进行实际应用,对日本佳能公司进行内在价值评价及财务决策分析。在研究方法方面,采用比较分析、逻辑推理、思辨性归纳演绎、定量分析等方法,在注重先进理论方法运用的同时,也充分考虑到企业内在价值评价方法的发展趋向,注重理论与实践紧密结合、定量与定性综合验证、规范与实证统筹兼顾的方法,以此确保整个研究过程的完整性、系统性和科学性。
     根据上述研究思路和研究方法,本文通过相关理论及文献综述、概念模型及评价方法的对比分析提出了基于财务决策视角的企业内在价值评价方法,并通过参数确定、模型检验与调整对该方法进行完善及实际应用,主要内容包括以下几个部分:
     1、对现有的三种评价企业内在价值方法:贴现现金流量法(DCF法)、经济增加值估价法(EVA评价法)和Ohlson模型法进行比较分析,将其各自的优缺点和适用范围进行总结。本文用该三种方法同时对多家企业进行内在价值评价,并对各方法的平均评价误差进行比较分析,由此来验证三种评价方法的精确度、实用性及有效性。根据分析结果,列举出实际使用企业内在价值评价方法时的问题点,并就这些问题点对企业内在价值评价方法的实用性进行考察。由于企业内在价值是不断变化的,因此要想算出精确度较高的企业内在价值,就需要对影响内在价值的各种经营要素进行分析和量化,这为后文提出基于财务决策视角的企业内在价值评价方法奠定了基础。
     2、新方法的提出及完善。从财务决策的角度出发,在财务分析的基础上提出了基于财务预测模型的企业内在价值评价方法,以便能够更准确的评价企业内在价值。该方法对影响企业内在价值的各种经营要素进行分析和量化,将企业的各种信息按照价值创造的主线进行分类、整理和链接,并在此基础上完成对企业财务状况的分析、预测及价值评价。考虑到该方法在实际应用中可能涉及到由于不同的市场经济条件对企业特性的影响,进而影响评价过程中对企业内在价值的判断,因此本文对企业内在价值评价过程中参数的确定对评价范围、评价方法选择的影响进行了研究分析,并针对基于财务决策视角的企业内在价值评价方法中相关的评价参数进行确定,包括:风险收益率的确定、无风险收益率的确定以及市盈率的确定。最后通过对财务预测模型的检验与调整概括出财务预测模型的适用性和局限性,并提出了对基于财务决策视角的企业内在价值评价方法的改进方案。
     3、对新方法进行实际应用。在前文建立财务预测模型的基础上,从实际出发对日本佳能公司进行内在价值评价的实际应用。通过在日本留学期间的调研数据对佳能公司进行历史业绩分析,并制定企业的预测财务报表,之后测定资本成本,由负债比率和股权比率得出加权平均资本成本的值,从而对企业内在价值进行评价,并根据得出的结果进行评价分析,验证结果的有效性。将评价结果和常用的三种内在价值评价方法得出的评价值一起与基准点价值进行比较分析。最后,对佳能公司的财务决策进行分析。
     综上所述,企业内在价值评价是企业在经济活动中非常重要的参考依据,是企业获利和潜在获利的重要指标,因此企业内在价值评价方法正处在蓬勃发展的阶段,要想克服各种评价方法的局限性,研究出一整套比较成熟科学又实用的理论体系仍需要很长的过程。在价值评价活动中,没有哪种企业内在价值评价方法具有绝对优势,由于目的、对象、信息、环境的不同,各种方法都存在一定局限性。随着基础理论和研究方法的不断完善,企业内在价值评价方法会向更为科学、实用、客观、简便的方向发展。本文将企业内在价值与财务决策结合起来,对增加企业内在价值和选择合理资本结构而言是十分重要的,也是对企业内在价值与财务决策相关研究的理论创新,可以有效填补基于财务决策视角的企业内在价值评价研究的空白。
The enterprise value is the most accurate and comprehensive indicator to measure thecorporate performance and the overall quality. Enterprise value evaluation makes thebusiness enterprise as a whole and it has gradually become an important developmentdirection of modern asset appraisal industry to exchange value of the overall evaluation of itstransactions. The enterprise value has different forms in different conditions and reflectsdifferent forms of value, as corporate book value, fair value, liquidation value and intrinsicvalue. The intrinsic value of the enterprise is the basis of business investment, reflects thecompany's future earning power. In recent years, with changes in corporate financial goalsgradually from profit maximization to the maximization of enterprise value, the intrinsicvalue of the enterprise is becoming more and more concerned about the core content of thevarious departments of the enterprise. Enterprise evaluation of the intrinsic value ofscientific and effective financial decisions are closely linked, different levels ofdecision-making will bring different benefits and risks, the financial decisions of science areable to differentiate all the negative factors, high levels of use of funds to achieve thesustainable development of enterprises.
     Japan has started to pay attention to corporate intrinsic value evaluation for a long time,since the late1950s, the Japanese from all walks of life for intrinsic value theory, valuecreation, corporate intrinsic value evaluation aspects launched a systematic study. Becauseof the Japanese corporate reorganization, merger, bankruptcy and liquidation as well as thesale and transfer of the entire enterprise in a highly frequent, these activities are related to theintrinsic value evaluation, therefore, resulting in a wide range of practical applications of theenterprise intrinsic value evaluation in Japan. So far, Japan has the intrinsic value of theenterprise evaluation theory and empirical research has reached a higher level. The author asthe national public school project in the year2011-2012joint training of doctoral studyabroad went to the Department of Economics at the University of Hokkaido, Japan, duringthe practice based on the theory analysis.
     In this context, this paper sort out the evaluation of the theoretical context of theenterprises under the intrinsic value of financial decision-making perspective, and intrinsic the method of intrinsic value of the enterprise evaluation based on financial decision-makingperspective through the enterprise value and its evaluation, the intrinsic value of itsevaluation, has well as financial analysis and corporate intrinsic value evaluation theory andliterature review, combing and induction. In research ideas, the concept of the intrinsic valueof the enterprise from the point of view of financial accounting definition, evaluation of theintrinsic value of the enterprise, and an overview and analysis of the intrinsic value of theenterprise evaluation based on the financial decision-making perspective; Secondly,according to the existing three common evaluation of the intrinsic value of listed enterprisespractical application, and evaluation of the results were analyzed, summed up the existingproblems of each method in practical applications; again, according to the advantages anddisadvantages of the existing methods based on financial decisions the enterprise valueevaluation method, and the method to determine the parameters summarized thus improve;Finally, the practical application of intrinsic value evaluation method based on financialdecision-making perspective, the intrinsic value of Japan's Canon Inc. evaluation andfinancial decisions. In research methods, this paper used the method of comparative analysis,logical reasoning, reasoning induction and quantitative analysis, it not only focus on the useof advanced theoretical methods, but also give full consideration to the development trend ofthe intrinsic value of the enterprise evaluation methods, Pay attention to the theory andpractice, closely integrated, comprehensive validation of quantitative and qualitative,normative and empirical integrated approach, in order to ensure the integrity of the entirecourse of the study, systematic and scientific.
     According to the research ideas and research methods, comparative analysis of relevanttheory and literature review, the conceptual model and evaluation method based on thefinancial decision-making perspective intrinsic value evaluation method, and determined bythe parameters, model checking and adjustment of the method sound and practicalapplication, the main contents include the following sections:
     First, the paper takes three existing evaluation intrinsic value method: the discounted cashflow method (DCF method), economic value added valuation method (the EVA evaluationmethod) and Ohlson model for comparative analysis of their respective advantages anddisadvantages and scope of application be summarized. This paper takes the three methodson the number of enterprises at the same time the intrinsic value of the evaluation, acomparative analysis of each method average rating error, to verify the accuracy, relevanceand effectiveness of three methods of evaluation. Based on the results, list the actual use ofthe intrinsic value evaluation method problems, and to examine the usefulness of the evaluation method of the intrinsic value of the enterprise on these issues point. Due to theintrinsic value of the enterprise is constantly changing, so in order to calculate the accuracyenterprises with high intrinsic value, you need to analyze and measure the various operatingelements that affect the intrinsic value within the enterprise based on the perspective offinancial decisions for later value evaluation method laid the foundation.
     Second, proposed the new method and makes it perfect. From the point of view offinancial decision-making, financial analysis based on the intrinsic value of the enterprisebased on financial projections model evaluation methods, in order to be able to moreaccurately evaluate the enterprise intrinsic value. The method to analyze and measure thevarious operating elements affect the intrinsic value of the enterprise, the enterprise of allkinds of information in accordance with the main line of value creation sorting and links, andon this basis, to complete the analysis of the financial situation of enterprises, forecasts andvalue evaluation. Taking into account the method may be involved in the practicalapplication of enterprise characteristics due to the different conditions of market economy,thereby affecting the evaluation process to determine the intrinsic value of the enterprise, sothis paper to determine the evaluation parameters in the process of evaluating the intrinsicvalue of enterprise range evaluation method selected research and analysis, and to determinethe enterprise value evaluation method based on the perspective of financial decision-makingrelated to the evaluation of parameters, including: risk yield determination, determine therisk-free rate and to determine the price-earnings ratio. Last inspection and adjustment of thefinancial forecasting model summarizes the applicability and limitations of financialforecasting model, and the improvement of the intrinsic value of the enterprise evaluationmethod based on the financial decision-making perspective.
     Third, this paper practice application of the new method. Previous established on the basisof the financial forecast model from reality and the practical application of the evaluation ofthe intrinsic value of Japan's Canon Inc.. Canon studying in Japan during the survey data,historical performance analysis, and to develop the forecast financial statements, after thedetermination of the cost of capital, the value of the weighted average cost of capitalobtained by the gearing ratio and equity ratio, the intrinsic value of the enterprise evaluation,and based on the results of evaluation, verify the validity of the results. Evaluation valuederived from the results of the evaluation and the three commonly used intrinsic valueevaluation method together with the value of the reference point for comparative analysis.Finally, this paper analysis the financial decisions of the Canon.
     In summary, evaluating the intrinsic value of enterprises is a very important reference for enterprises in economic activities is an important indicator of corporate profits andpotentially profitable, so the evaluation method of the intrinsic value of the enterprise is inthe stage of vigorous development, in order to overcome the limitations of the variousevaluation methods, developed a set of more mature scientific and theoretical system stilltake a very long process. What kind of intrinsic value evaluation method has an absoluteadvantage in the value of the evaluation activities, due to the different purpose, object,information, environment, various methods have some limitations. With the constantimprovement of the basic theory and research methods, evaluation of the intrinsic value ofthe enterprise to be more scientific, practical, objective and easy. The intrinsic value of theenterprise and financial decisions to increase the intrinsic value of the enterprise and choicein terms of a reasonable capital structure is very important, but also the intrinsic value of theenterprise and financial decisions related research theoretical innovation, based on financialdecision-making perspective can effectively fill enterprise intrinsic value evaluation studiesblank.
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