泥石流危险度评价指标的提取与等级划分
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摘要
泥石流多发生在山区坡地或山区沟谷深壑中，在地质构造，地形地貌，气象水文，人类经济活动等因素的综合作用下，突发的一种破坏力强、发生时间短且复发频率高的自然灾害现象。我国地质构造，地形条件相对复杂，泥石流灾害暴发频繁，对山区城镇，能源基地，水电工程，交通道路，生态环境和人民生命财产安全都造成了巨大灾难。为了减轻泥石流灾害造成的直接间接损失，保护国家和人民生命财产安全，对泥石流进行研究已成为一个亟待解决的重要课题。泥石流危险度评价是一项环境保护和减灾的非工程措施，可有效地反映泥石流现在所处的状态以及未来的发展趋势。
论文以金沙江乌东德水电站库坝区泥石流为研究对象，详细的调查研究区的地理地形条件，地层岩性条件，构造地质条件，气象水文条件，植被条件等。根据研究区泥石流的地域特点、现场调查经验与3S技术遥感解译结合，获取泥石流9项评价指标的初步选取结果。9项评价指标为流域切割密度，主沟床弯曲系数，泥砂补给段长度比，植被覆盖率，流域内人口密度，24小时最大降雨量，主沟平均比降，单位面积物源量和轮廓圆度。
然后根据粗糙集理论和逐步判别分析理论分别对所选取的评价指标进行优化提取约简，得到5组评价指标约简组合。而后，应用层次分析法和因子分析法的组合赋权方法，计算5组评价指标约简组合权重值。结合各评价指标的赋值标准，建立泥石流危险性评价的可拓学模型，对研究区泥石流危险度等级进行划分。且建立传统的刘希林模型，对研究区的泥石流危险性进行评价。同时，以初步选取的评价指标为组合，不进行评价指标的约简，与可拓理论相结合来评价泥石流的危险度等级。通过野外仔细调查的7条泥石流危险度，对所有模型进行验证分析对比，对研究区的泥石流危险性进行评价，以便更好的指导实践。
粗糙集理论选取出主沟床弯曲系数，泥砂补给段长度比，主沟平均比降，单位面积物源量，轮廓圆度的一组组合，与可拓理论相结合的模型；逐步判别分析理论-可拓理论模型：这两种模型泥石流危险度评价结果与地质原型验证吻合，将研究对象、评价指标和量值结合为一体，建立泥石流危险度整体评价的可拓物元模型，较准确地评价泥石流危险度，反映研究区泥石流的实际情况，实现对泥石流的动态评价和预测。
Debris flow, which has the strong destructiveness, is a kind of more complex fluidwith ferocious momentum, fast speed, large flow, strong destructive power, short timeof occurrence and high recurrence rate. These sudden natural disasters tend to occur inthe slopes or valleys of the mountainous area. Under the comprehensive effect of allkinds of natural factors and human factors including geological structure, topography,geomorphology, meteorology, hydrology and human economic activities, etc, in ashort period of time there will be a lot of sediment and rock dumped outside themountains, causing a huge disaster to human production and life, hinderingengineering economic construction of the mountainous area.
Thus, debris flow has already become a danger to mountainous towns, the energybase, water conservation and hydro-power engineering, road traffic, the ecologicalenvironment and the safety for people's lives and property. In order to alleviate thedirect and indirect damages caused by debris flow and protect the safety for people'slives and property, studying on debris flow has become a critical problem to beaddressed.
This dissertation is based on the debris flow as the research object which is locatedon the downstream of Jinsha river Wudongde hydropower station, analyzed theoverall development condition of debris flow combined with the local datainformation and field investigation. The dissertation builded the three-dimensionalmodel and interpret the three-dimensional characteristic geometrical parameters of the27debris flows, applied remote sensing images, DEM and GIS technology. Throughfield investigation and3S remote sensing, the dissertation obtained the initial indices selection of debris flow assessment according to regional characteristics of debrisflow in the study area and field investigation.
Then extract and reduct the evaluation index selection respectively according torough sets and stepwise discriminant analysis. Apply rough sets to reduct as4groupsof evaluation index, avoiding the repetitive factors. Apply stepwise discriminantanalysis to extract1group of evaluation index. The factors we selected have sufficientinformation which can reflect the hazard degree of debris flow. Apply the5groups ofevaluation index extracted by two kinds of nonlinear method, and calculate thecombination weighting by analytic hierarchy process and factor analysis. Accordingto the classification criteria of all evaluation indexes, build a extenics model of debrisflow susceptibility assessment respectively, and divide rating for the hazard degree ofdebris flow in the study area.
At the same time, this dissertation built the traditional Liuxilin model and evaluatedthe debris flow susceptibility in the study area in contrast with rough sets-extensiontheory model and stepwise discriminant analysis-extension theory model. Considerthe initial indices selection as a combination which did not extract the evaluationindices, then combine with extension theory to rate for debris flow hazard assessment.
It turned out that two models are built: one is extension theory combined with agroup of the evaluation index extracted by rough sets including the main channeltortuosity, length proportion of the debris supplement section, average main channelgradient, material per square kilometer and contour roundness; another is stepwisediscriminant analysis–extension theory model. The two models of debris flow hazardassessment is in accordance with the geological model, and they can reflect the actualsituation of debris flow in the study area.
论文以金沙江乌东德水电站库坝区泥石流为研究对象，详细的调查研究区的地理地形条件，地层岩性条件，构造地质条件，气象水文条件，植被条件等。根据研究区泥石流的地域特点、现场调查经验与3S技术遥感解译结合，获取泥石流9项评价指标的初步选取结果。9项评价指标为流域切割密度，主沟床弯曲系数，泥砂补给段长度比，植被覆盖率，流域内人口密度，24小时最大降雨量，主沟平均比降，单位面积物源量和轮廓圆度。
然后根据粗糙集理论和逐步判别分析理论分别对所选取的评价指标进行优化提取约简，得到5组评价指标约简组合。而后，应用层次分析法和因子分析法的组合赋权方法，计算5组评价指标约简组合权重值。结合各评价指标的赋值标准，建立泥石流危险性评价的可拓学模型，对研究区泥石流危险度等级进行划分。且建立传统的刘希林模型，对研究区的泥石流危险性进行评价。同时，以初步选取的评价指标为组合，不进行评价指标的约简，与可拓理论相结合来评价泥石流的危险度等级。通过野外仔细调查的7条泥石流危险度，对所有模型进行验证分析对比，对研究区的泥石流危险性进行评价，以便更好的指导实践。
粗糙集理论选取出主沟床弯曲系数，泥砂补给段长度比，主沟平均比降，单位面积物源量，轮廓圆度的一组组合，与可拓理论相结合的模型；逐步判别分析理论-可拓理论模型：这两种模型泥石流危险度评价结果与地质原型验证吻合，将研究对象、评价指标和量值结合为一体，建立泥石流危险度整体评价的可拓物元模型，较准确地评价泥石流危险度，反映研究区泥石流的实际情况，实现对泥石流的动态评价和预测。
Debris flow, which has the strong destructiveness, is a kind of more complex fluidwith ferocious momentum, fast speed, large flow, strong destructive power, short timeof occurrence and high recurrence rate. These sudden natural disasters tend to occur inthe slopes or valleys of the mountainous area. Under the comprehensive effect of allkinds of natural factors and human factors including geological structure, topography,geomorphology, meteorology, hydrology and human economic activities, etc, in ashort period of time there will be a lot of sediment and rock dumped outside themountains, causing a huge disaster to human production and life, hinderingengineering economic construction of the mountainous area.
Thus, debris flow has already become a danger to mountainous towns, the energybase, water conservation and hydro-power engineering, road traffic, the ecologicalenvironment and the safety for people's lives and property. In order to alleviate thedirect and indirect damages caused by debris flow and protect the safety for people'slives and property, studying on debris flow has become a critical problem to beaddressed.
This dissertation is based on the debris flow as the research object which is locatedon the downstream of Jinsha river Wudongde hydropower station, analyzed theoverall development condition of debris flow combined with the local datainformation and field investigation. The dissertation builded the three-dimensionalmodel and interpret the three-dimensional characteristic geometrical parameters of the27debris flows, applied remote sensing images, DEM and GIS technology. Throughfield investigation and3S remote sensing, the dissertation obtained the initial indices selection of debris flow assessment according to regional characteristics of debrisflow in the study area and field investigation.
Then extract and reduct the evaluation index selection respectively according torough sets and stepwise discriminant analysis. Apply rough sets to reduct as4groupsof evaluation index, avoiding the repetitive factors. Apply stepwise discriminantanalysis to extract1group of evaluation index. The factors we selected have sufficientinformation which can reflect the hazard degree of debris flow. Apply the5groups ofevaluation index extracted by two kinds of nonlinear method, and calculate thecombination weighting by analytic hierarchy process and factor analysis. Accordingto the classification criteria of all evaluation indexes, build a extenics model of debrisflow susceptibility assessment respectively, and divide rating for the hazard degree ofdebris flow in the study area.
At the same time, this dissertation built the traditional Liuxilin model and evaluatedthe debris flow susceptibility in the study area in contrast with rough sets-extensiontheory model and stepwise discriminant analysis-extension theory model. Considerthe initial indices selection as a combination which did not extract the evaluationindices, then combine with extension theory to rate for debris flow hazard assessment.
It turned out that two models are built: one is extension theory combined with agroup of the evaluation index extracted by rough sets including the main channeltortuosity, length proportion of the debris supplement section, average main channelgradient, material per square kilometer and contour roundness; another is stepwisediscriminant analysis–extension theory model. The two models of debris flow hazardassessment is in accordance with the geological model, and they can reflect the actualsituation of debris flow in the study area.
引文
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