基于3S技术的岩桑树水电站近坝区滑坡敏感性评价
|
摘要
近年来随着经济的快速发展，人类工程活动急剧增加，由此导致的滑坡地质灾害无论从数量、频率还是密度上都日益严重，给人民生命财产和社会的经济发展带来严重的损失，制约着人类的可持续发展。而滑坡风险评价和管理是减轻滑坡损失最有效的方法和途径，也是当今滑坡研究的重点和难点。其中滑坡敏感性评价是滑坡风险评价与管理的基础与依据，对滑坡的防治和预警工作具有十分重要的理论与实际意义。经过几十年的探索，我国在该领域取得了丰硕的成果，但总体来说，与国际先进水平相比还存在着一定的差距，由其是在滑坡灾害影响因子筛选分析和理论应用等方面值得深入探索。
西南地区处于我国地势的第一、第二阶梯，由于新构造活动强烈、地质条件复杂、地势起伏大、水系纵横、降水丰富等特点使得滑坡灾害充分发育，是进行区域滑坡灾害特征分析和敏感性评价的良好实验基地。基于此，本文以3S技术为平台，在对怒江流域岩桑树库区的滑坡灾害进行遥感解译、实地考察和特征参数统计的基础上建立了滑坡灾害数据库，以“确定性系数”、“变维分形理论”、“层次分析法”、“熵值法”以及“Logistic回归”等为基本理论对滑坡灾害影响因素进行了定性和定量的分析研究，并以此为基础对库区滑坡进行敏感性区划。最终形成一套从基础数据采集-遥感图像处理-滑坡灾害信息提取-滑坡灾害因子分析-滑坡灾害敏感性区划的工作方法。论文主要研究内容和成果如下：
1.以高分辨率遥感影像解译和详实的野外实地调查为基础，ARCGIS软件为平台，按照地质信息元数据标准，建立研究区滑坡灾害集中发育区域的空间数据库，形成了一套成熟的基于3S技术的区域地质灾害调查方法。并在滑坡数据库信息和区域地质、水文地质、地形地貌等资料的基础上，对岩桑树库区滑坡的发育类型、规模、物质组成和成因机制做出分析。
2.论述了敏感性评价中制图单元的重要性，将制图单元归结为网格单元、地域单元、均一条件单元、自然斜坡单元和地形单元，并探索出自然斜坡单元的智能划分方式。为了找出最适合的制图单元，选择了自然斜坡单元和网格单元进行滑坡敏感性评价。
3.根据前人的经验总结出较为完善的滑坡敏感性影响因子体系，基于两种制图单元对影响因子的提取步骤做出详细论述，并对地形起伏度因子的尺寸效应进行讨论。在此基础上根据滑坡相对密度和确定性系数对不同制图单元提取的因子特点进行定性和定量研究，总结出本研究区最适宜滑坡发育的条件组合。并基于变维分形理论对影响因子和滑坡分布特征进行分析，为建立滑坡敏感性评价模型提供分形学依据。
4.在分析当前滑坡敏感性研究现状的基础上，采用组合赋权法和Logistic回归法对不同制图单元提取的影响因子进行敏感性计算。对滑坡敏感性评价结果比较的意义与方法进行论述，按照模型结果准确度是否受临界值约束这一条件分为受临界值约束和不受临界值约束两类，采用经验概率和ROC曲线对各个滑坡敏感性模型进行了比较分析。结果表明基于规则网格单元的Logistic模型最适合本研究区滑坡敏感性评价。
With the rapid economic growth and the increase of human engineering,geological disasters have caused more and more damages to people's lives andproperties, which restrict the human’s sustainable development. Landslide riskevaluation, which is difficult but important for landslide research, is the most effectivemethod to mitigate the loss led by landslide disasters. The susceptibility analysis,which is essential for prevention and early warning, is the foundation of the riskevaluation and management for landslides.In spite of achieving fruitful results in thefield of geological disasters for our country during the past several decades, on thewhole, in comparison to the international advanced level, there are large gapsespecially in the selection of the influencing factors and the theory application of thelandslide disasters.
The Southwest China is located in the transition zone between the first step andthe second step of our country’s landform. In this region, the active neotectonics,water syster were developed, the geological conditions are complicated, the slopes arelarge, and the rainfall is abundant. Therefore, large amounts of landslides weredeveloped in this area, which offer unexceptionable examples for feature analysis andsusceptibility assessment. Based on the abovementioned details and the3Stechnologies, the landslides in Yansangshu reserior region in Nujiang basin wereinterpreted and investigated; then, the characteristic parameters were obtained.Ultimately, the data-base of the landslide disasters can be generated. Based on methodologies of deterministic coefficient, variable dimension fractal, analytichierarchy process, entropy method, and logistic regression, the landslides in theresearch area were qualitatively and quantitatively researched and the susceptibilityresults were regionalized. A method of work was formed as “data collection-remotesensing image processing-landslide information extraction-landslide susceptibilityanalysis”. The main research contents and the productions were listed as follows：
1. Based on remote sensing images in high resolution and konkret field survey,the spatial data-base of the concentrated landslide disasters can be generated by usingARCGIS and the geological metainformation data standard. In addition, thedevelopment types, scales, grain composition, and genetic mechanism were analyzedbased on the data-base information, regional geology, hydrogeololgy, geomorphology,and landform of the landslides.
2. The selection of mapping unit was discussed and the mapping unit comesdown to five kinds: the grid unit, regional unit, uniform conditions unit, slope unit,and terrain unit. According to engineering needs, the evaluation of the geologicalhazard in this paper chose slope unit and grid unit, and the features of extractedfactors for the mapping units were compared.
3. Through summing up the former researcher’s experiences, the influencingfactor system of landslide susceptibility analysis was generated, and the size effect ofthe topographic relief was researched. Based on the aforementioned researches, theinfluencing factor extraction was investigated based on the density of landslides anddeterministic coefficient, and the most applicable condition for the landslide developwas summed up. The theory of the variable dimension fractal was used for evaluatingthe relationship between the inducing factors and the occurrence of the landslide toprovide the fractal basis to establish the index system of landslide susceptibilityassessment.
4. According to the qualitative and quantitative evaluation actuality, this paperapplied the combination weighting and logistic regression method combining theregular mapping uint and natural slope uint to assess the susceptibility of the landslidedisasters. The significance and methods of comparison for landslide susceptibility were discussed. Accuracy statistics of model were divided into cutoff-dependentperformance criteria and cutoff-independent performance criteria according towhether the statistics are constrained by the critical value. By using the empiricalprobability and ROC curve, the generated susceptibility models were analyzed. Theresults indicated that the calculation by using the logistic regression method based onregular grid cell is the most applicable for the research area.
西南地区处于我国地势的第一、第二阶梯，由于新构造活动强烈、地质条件复杂、地势起伏大、水系纵横、降水丰富等特点使得滑坡灾害充分发育，是进行区域滑坡灾害特征分析和敏感性评价的良好实验基地。基于此，本文以3S技术为平台，在对怒江流域岩桑树库区的滑坡灾害进行遥感解译、实地考察和特征参数统计的基础上建立了滑坡灾害数据库，以“确定性系数”、“变维分形理论”、“层次分析法”、“熵值法”以及“Logistic回归”等为基本理论对滑坡灾害影响因素进行了定性和定量的分析研究，并以此为基础对库区滑坡进行敏感性区划。最终形成一套从基础数据采集-遥感图像处理-滑坡灾害信息提取-滑坡灾害因子分析-滑坡灾害敏感性区划的工作方法。论文主要研究内容和成果如下：
1.以高分辨率遥感影像解译和详实的野外实地调查为基础，ARCGIS软件为平台，按照地质信息元数据标准，建立研究区滑坡灾害集中发育区域的空间数据库，形成了一套成熟的基于3S技术的区域地质灾害调查方法。并在滑坡数据库信息和区域地质、水文地质、地形地貌等资料的基础上，对岩桑树库区滑坡的发育类型、规模、物质组成和成因机制做出分析。
2.论述了敏感性评价中制图单元的重要性，将制图单元归结为网格单元、地域单元、均一条件单元、自然斜坡单元和地形单元，并探索出自然斜坡单元的智能划分方式。为了找出最适合的制图单元，选择了自然斜坡单元和网格单元进行滑坡敏感性评价。
3.根据前人的经验总结出较为完善的滑坡敏感性影响因子体系，基于两种制图单元对影响因子的提取步骤做出详细论述，并对地形起伏度因子的尺寸效应进行讨论。在此基础上根据滑坡相对密度和确定性系数对不同制图单元提取的因子特点进行定性和定量研究，总结出本研究区最适宜滑坡发育的条件组合。并基于变维分形理论对影响因子和滑坡分布特征进行分析，为建立滑坡敏感性评价模型提供分形学依据。
4.在分析当前滑坡敏感性研究现状的基础上，采用组合赋权法和Logistic回归法对不同制图单元提取的影响因子进行敏感性计算。对滑坡敏感性评价结果比较的意义与方法进行论述，按照模型结果准确度是否受临界值约束这一条件分为受临界值约束和不受临界值约束两类，采用经验概率和ROC曲线对各个滑坡敏感性模型进行了比较分析。结果表明基于规则网格单元的Logistic模型最适合本研究区滑坡敏感性评价。
With the rapid economic growth and the increase of human engineering,geological disasters have caused more and more damages to people's lives andproperties, which restrict the human’s sustainable development. Landslide riskevaluation, which is difficult but important for landslide research, is the most effectivemethod to mitigate the loss led by landslide disasters. The susceptibility analysis,which is essential for prevention and early warning, is the foundation of the riskevaluation and management for landslides.In spite of achieving fruitful results in thefield of geological disasters for our country during the past several decades, on thewhole, in comparison to the international advanced level, there are large gapsespecially in the selection of the influencing factors and the theory application of thelandslide disasters.
The Southwest China is located in the transition zone between the first step andthe second step of our country’s landform. In this region, the active neotectonics,water syster were developed, the geological conditions are complicated, the slopes arelarge, and the rainfall is abundant. Therefore, large amounts of landslides weredeveloped in this area, which offer unexceptionable examples for feature analysis andsusceptibility assessment. Based on the abovementioned details and the3Stechnologies, the landslides in Yansangshu reserior region in Nujiang basin wereinterpreted and investigated; then, the characteristic parameters were obtained.Ultimately, the data-base of the landslide disasters can be generated. Based on methodologies of deterministic coefficient, variable dimension fractal, analytichierarchy process, entropy method, and logistic regression, the landslides in theresearch area were qualitatively and quantitatively researched and the susceptibilityresults were regionalized. A method of work was formed as “data collection-remotesensing image processing-landslide information extraction-landslide susceptibilityanalysis”. The main research contents and the productions were listed as follows：
1. Based on remote sensing images in high resolution and konkret field survey,the spatial data-base of the concentrated landslide disasters can be generated by usingARCGIS and the geological metainformation data standard. In addition, thedevelopment types, scales, grain composition, and genetic mechanism were analyzedbased on the data-base information, regional geology, hydrogeololgy, geomorphology,and landform of the landslides.
2. The selection of mapping unit was discussed and the mapping unit comesdown to five kinds: the grid unit, regional unit, uniform conditions unit, slope unit,and terrain unit. According to engineering needs, the evaluation of the geologicalhazard in this paper chose slope unit and grid unit, and the features of extractedfactors for the mapping units were compared.
3. Through summing up the former researcher’s experiences, the influencingfactor system of landslide susceptibility analysis was generated, and the size effect ofthe topographic relief was researched. Based on the aforementioned researches, theinfluencing factor extraction was investigated based on the density of landslides anddeterministic coefficient, and the most applicable condition for the landslide developwas summed up. The theory of the variable dimension fractal was used for evaluatingthe relationship between the inducing factors and the occurrence of the landslide toprovide the fractal basis to establish the index system of landslide susceptibilityassessment.
4. According to the qualitative and quantitative evaluation actuality, this paperapplied the combination weighting and logistic regression method combining theregular mapping uint and natural slope uint to assess the susceptibility of the landslidedisasters. The significance and methods of comparison for landslide susceptibility were discussed. Accuracy statistics of model were divided into cutoff-dependentperformance criteria and cutoff-independent performance criteria according towhether the statistics are constrained by the critical value. By using the empiricalprobability and ROC curve, the generated susceptibility models were analyzed. Theresults indicated that the calculation by using the logistic regression method based onregular grid cell is the most applicable for the research area.
引文
[1]茹继平.土木基础设施减灾基础研究进展与趋势[J].土木工程学报，2000，33(6)：1-5.
[2]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析的基本原理[J].自然灾害学报，1999，8(2):21-30.
[3]楼宝棠.中国古今地震灾情总汇[M].北京:地震出版社，1996.
[4]张梁，张业成，罗元华等.地质灾害灾情评估理论与实践[M]，北京:地质出版社，1998.
[5]国家科委全国重大自然灾害综合研究组.中国重大自然灾害及减灾对策(总论)[M].中国自然灾害丛书.北京:科学出版社，1994.
[6]虞立红.国内外自然灾害研究概况[M].北京师范大学地理系编.区域·环境·自然灾害地理研究.北京:科学出版社，1990，115-120.
[7]殷坤龙，朱良峰.滑坡灾害空间区划与GIS应用研究[J].地学前缘，2001，8(2):279-2830.
[8]沈芳，黄润秋，苗放，等.地理信息系统与地质环境评价[J].地质灾害与环境保护，2000，11(1):6-10.
[9]朱良峰，殷坤龙，张梁等.GIS支持下的地质灾害风险分析[J].长江科学院院报，2002，54(5):42-45.
[10]刘传正.长江三峡库区的地质灾害及其监测预警[J].科技导报，2000，(11):60-63.
[11]张业成，张梁.论地质灾害风险评价[J].地质灾害与环境保护，1996，7(3)：1-6.
[12]向喜琼，黄润秋.地质灾害风险评价与风险管理[J].地质灾害与环境保护，2000，11(1)：38-41.
[13]张梁，张业成，罗元华等.地质灾害灾情评估理论与实践[M]，北京:地质出版社，1998.
[14] FellR, H.K, LaeasseS, LeroiE. Aframework for landslide riskassessment and management in The International conference onLandslide Risk Management[J].2005.Vann couver, Canada: A.A.Balkema Publishers.
[15]石菊松.基于遥感和地理信息系统的滑坡风险评估关键技术[D].中国地质科学院博士学位论文，2008，05.
[16]卓宝熙.工程地质遥感判释与应用[M].北京:中国铁道出版社，2002:538-539.
[17]殷坤龙,朱良峰.滑坡灾害空间区划及GIS应用研究[J].地学前缘,2002,8(2).
[18]阮沈勇,黄润秋.基于GIS的信息量法模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].成都理工学院学报,2001,29(1):87-89.
[19] sheko A.E., Theoretical principles of region temporary predictionof landslide activation[J],Bulletin of IAEG Prague, No.I6,1997，69-72.
[20] Carrara A.，Multivariate models for landslide hazard evaluation[J],Math.Geol.,1983,15:403-26.
[21] Brabb E.E.,Innovation approaches to landslide hazard and riskmaping[J], Proc.of4th ISL,Toronto,1984,307-323.
[22] Brand E.W.,Landslide risk assessment in HongKong[J],Landslide,1988,1059-1074.
[23] Cross M.,Landslide susceptiibility mapping using two matrixassessment approach,Geohazards in engineering geology edited by J.GMaund and M.Eddleston[J]. Geological society engineering geologyspecial publication NO.15, London,1998,247-264.
[24] Nilsen T.H. Brabb E.E. Slope stability studies in the San FranciscoBay region, California, Geol[J].Soc.Amercia, Reviews in Eng.Geol.,1977,235-243.
[25] Takashi. Japan-China joint symposium on slope stability and theircontrol[Z].1995.114-118.
[26] Michael-leiba M. Quantitative landslides risk assessment of CaimsAustralia[Z].
[27] Aleotti P., Baldelli P., Polloni G. et. al. Hydrogeological riskassessment of the Po river basin (Italy)[Z]. Landslides in research,theory and practice,13-18,Thomas Telford,London,2000.
[28]褚洪斌，母海东等.层次分析法在太行山区地质灾害危险性分区中的应用[J]中国地质灾害与防治学报.2003.14(3):125-129.
[29]伏永朋，常宏，李速.湖北省谷城县地质灾害易发程度分区评价[J].地质调查与研究,2007.30(1):70-75.
[30]向喜琼，黄润秋.基于GIS的人工神经网络模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报.2000.11(3)23-27.
[31]胡金，李波，杨艳锋.GIS在云南普甸县地质灾害易发性分区中的应用[J].灾害学.2008.23(l):73-75.
[32]皇甫行丰，李坷凌.古维普河南红旗集沿线地质灾害易发性评[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报.2004.15(3):30-33.
[33]谢晓娟.地质环境条件及诱发因素在地质灾害易发分区中定量化评价初探[J].探矿工程.2003(增刊):93-95.
[34]张春山，张业成，马寅生.黄河上游地区崩塌、滑坡、泥石流地质灾害区域危险性评价[J].地质力学学报2003，(2):143-153.
[35]张业成，胡景江，张春山.中国地质灾害危险性分析与灾变区划[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质.1995.15(3):55-67.
[36]黄润秋，许强，沈芳等.基于GIS的地质灾害区域评价与危险性区划系统研究[A].第三届海峡两岸三地环境灾害研讨会论文集[C].台北.2001.177-182.
[37]朱良峰，吴信才，殷坤龙，刘修国.基于信息量模型的中国滑坡灾害风险区划研究[J].地球科学与环境学报.2004.26(3):52-56.
[38]张桂荣，般坤龙，刘传正等.基于GIS的陕西省旬阳地区滑坡灾害危险性区划[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报.
[39]阮沈勇，黄润秋.基于GIS的信息量法模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].成都理工学院学报.2001.28(l):89-92.
[40]晏同珍，杨顺安，方云.滑坡学[M].武汉.中国地质大学出版社.2000.
[41]晏同珍，白晓辉，般坤仑等.江汉河谷安康段滑坡分布规律及空间预测[A].滑坡文集.1990.第7集.
[42]刘传正等.长江三峡库区地质灾害成因与评价研究[M].北京.地质出版社.2007.
[43]吴树仁，石菊松，王涛，突发地质灾害预侧评价概论[J]地质通报2008.27(11):1753-1763.
[44]王志恒.基于GIS的四川省低山丘陵区滑坡危险性评价研究[D].首都师范大学博士学位论文.2011.
[45] Chau, K.T. Landslide hazard analysis for HongKongusing landslideinventory and GIS [J]. Computers Geoselenees.2004.
[46] NeauPane, K.M.andM.Piantanakulehai.Analytic network process modelfor landslide hazard zonation[J].Engineering Geology.2006，85(3-4):281-294.
[47]张桂荣,殷坤龙.区域滑坡空间预测方法研究及结果分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报.2005,24(23):4297-4302.
[48] Lee,s.,J.H.Ryu.Determination and application of the weights forlandslide susceptibility mapping using an artificial neuralnetwork[J].Engineering Geology.2004,71(3-4):289-302.
[49] Ayalew, L.and H.Yamagishi.The application of GIS-based logisticregression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kakuda-Yahiko Mountains, Central Japan [J].Geonorphology.2005，65(1-2):15-31.
[50] Gomez,H.and T.Kavzoglu. Assessment of shallow landslide suscepti-bility using artificial neural networks in Jabonosa River Basin,Venezuela[J].Engineering Geology.2005,78(l-2):11-27.
[51] Wallg,H.B.,W.YXu,etal.Slope stability evaluation using Backpropag-ation Neural Networks [J].Engineering Geology.2005，80(3-4):302-315.
[52] Van Westen,C.J.Landslide hazard and risk zonation-why is it stillso difficult[J]. Bull. Eng. Geol. Env,2005,64:5-23.
[53] Davis,J.C.,C-J.Chung,etal.Two models for evaluating landslide ha-zards[J].Computers&Geoseienees.2006,32(8):1120-l127.
[54]谢漠文,蔡美峰.信息边坡工程学的理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社.2005.
[55]王治华.RS+GPS获取滑坡基本信息[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报，2004，15(1):94-100.
[56]殷跃平.中国地质灾害减灾战略初步研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报，2004，15(20):1-7.
[57] A.Uromeihy，M.R Mahdavifar Landslide hazard zonation of the Kllorsh-rostam Area,Iran, Bull Eng Geol Env[M].2000,58:207-21.
[58] Cees J.van Westen.The Modelling of Landslide Hazards Using GIS.Surveys in GeoPhysics[M].2000,21:241-255.
[59] M.Borga, G. Dalla Fontana，D.Da Ros，L.Marchi. Shallow landslidehazard assessment using a physically based model and digitalelevation data[J].Envirnmental Geology,1998，35:2-3.
[60] CarraraA, Cardinali M,Guzzetti F，Reichenbach P. GIS technologytech-niques in mapping landslide hazard[M].Kuwer，Dordrecht，TheNether-lands，1995:135-175.
[61] Brabb E E.Innovative approaches to landslide hazard and riskmapping[A].In:Proeessings4th International Symposium onLandslides[C],Toronto,Canada,1984,1:307-324.
[62] Van Westen CJ. Remote sensing and geographic information systemsfor geological hazard mitigation[J].ITC-Journal,1993,4:393-399.
[63] Mario Mejia，Navarro.利用地理信息系统(GIS)进行地质灾害和风险评估-研究方法和模型在哥伦比亚麦德林地区的应用[J].地质科学译丛,1995,12(3):35-52.
[64] C.J.Van Westen， N.Rengers,M.TJ.Terlien. Prediction of theoccurrence of slope instability phenomena through GIS-based hazardzonation，GeolRundsch[M],1997,86:404-414.
[65] R.Nagarajam,A.Roy, R.Vinod Kumar, A.Mukherhee.V.Khire. Landsidehazard susceptibility mapping based on terrain and climatic factorsfor tropical monsoon regions[M].Bull Eng Geol Env.2000,58:275-287.
[66] Saro Lee,Kyungduck Min.Statistical analysis of landslide suscep-tibility at Yongin, Korea[J],2001,40:1095-1113.
[67] Ohlmacher Gregory C,Davis John C.Using multiple logistic regressionand GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeastKansas[J], USA. Engineering Geology.2003,69:331-343.
[68] Dai FC,Lee CF.Landslide characteristics and slope instabilitymodel-ing using GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong[J].Geomorphology.2002,48:213-228.
[69] Lin M L.Tung CC.A GIS-based potential analysis of the landslidesinduced by the Chi-Chi earthquake[J].EngineeringGeology,2003,64:63-77.
[70] Mehmet Lütfi Süzen,Vedat Doyuran. A comparison of the GIS basedlandslide susceptibility assessment methods: multivariate versusbivariate[J],2004,45:665-679.
[71] H.K.Shrestha，R.Yatabe，N.P.Bhandary. Use of groundwater flow modelin the analysis of a creeping landslide in western Japan[J].Episodes，2006，29(1):20-24.
[72]李家存，李京，Jasmi.基于概率指数模型的区域滑坡危险性评价[J].中国图象图形学报.2007，12(8):1471-1475.
[73]王治华.进藏公路、铁路沿线地区地质环境遥感调查[M].北京:地质出版社，2004.
[74]王治华.数字滑坡技术及其应用[J].现代地质，2005，6(19):157-164.
[75] Shan Xin-jian Ye Hong,Li Chao-fen,etal.Prediction method ofdangerous areas of regional landslide based on GIS and itsapplication. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering.2002,21(10):1507-1514.
[76]殷坤龙，朱良峰.滑坡灾害空间区划及GIS应用研究[J].地学前缘，2001，8(2):279-284.
[77]阮沈勇，黄润秋.基于GIS的信息量法模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].成都理工学院学报，2001，29(1):89-92。
[78]唐红梅，林孝松，陈洪凯.重庆万州区地质灾害危险性分区及评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报，2004，15(3):l-4.
[79]温守钦，李仁锋，任群智等.GIS技术在地质灾害区划中的应用[J].中国地质，2005，32(3)：512-517.
[80]赵建华，陈汉林，杨树锋.滑坡灾害危险性评价模型比较[J].自然灾害学报，2006，15(1):128-134.
[81]涂长红，商建林，谢叶彩，廖化荣.改进的灰色关联分析在滑坡危险性评价中的应用-以广东省滑坡危险性评价为例[J].灾害学，2007，22(1):86-89.
[82]高克吕，崔鹏，赵纯勇，韦方强.基于地理信息系统和信息量模型的滑坡危险性评价-以重庆万州为例[J].岩石力学与工程学报，2006，25(5):991-996.
[83]马小计，杨自安，邹林.抚顺市市区地质灾害遥感调查研究[J].中国地质，2006，33(5):1167-1173.
[84] Tang Huiming, WuYIPing. Spatial prediction of landslide for Badongcounty in the Three Gorges reservoir district[J].Global Geology，2006，9(2):124-130.
[85]白世彪，王建，间国年.基于GIS和双变量分析模型的三峡库区滑坡灾害易发性制图[J].山地学报，2007，25(l):85-92.
[86]张晨,王清,陈剑平,谷复光,张文.金沙江流域泥石流的组合赋权法危险度评价[J].岩土力学.2011，32(3)：831-836.
[87]张晨,陈剑平,王清,张文,阙金声.基于水系三维模型及分形理论对泥石流活动强度的研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报.2010,29(6):1214-1221.
[88]张晨，陈剑平，王清，张文.基于分形理论和流域水系分布特征的泥石流研究[J].水利学报,2011，42(3)：351-356.
[89]张文，陈剑平，秦胜伍，张晨，李明.基于主成分分析的FCM法在泥石流分类中的应用[J].吉林大学学报(地学版).2010，40(3):368-372.
[90]徐佩华,陈剑平,阙金声,仲志成,王清.基于人工神经网络的三峡水库库岸稳定性分级[J].吉林大学学报(地学版).2007，37(3):564-569.
[91]谭春，陈剑平，李会中，牛岑岑，张文，周福军.加权距离判别法在泥石流危险度评价中的应用[J].吉林大学学报(地学版).2012(6):1847-1852.
[92]谷复光，王清，张晨。基于投影寻踪与可拓学方法的泥石流危险度评价[J].吉林大学学报(地学版).2010，40(2):373-377.
[93]徐黎明，王清，陈剑平，潘玉珍。基于BP神经网络的泥石流平均流速预测[J].吉林大学学报(地学版).2013(1):186-191.
[94]张文春，陈剑平，张丽。基于人工神经网络的三峡库区丰都县水库塌岸预测[J].吉林大学学报(地学版).2010，40(2):378-382.
[95]邓辉.高精度卫星遥感技术在地质灾害调查与评价中的应用[D].成都：成都理工大学博士学位论文，2007.
[96]徐鹏杰，邓磊.遥感技术在减灾救灾中的应用[J].遥感技术与应用，2011，26(8):512-519.
[97]杨金香.遥感在地质灾害研究中的应用[J].煤田地质与勘探，2005，33:30-32.
[98]张华，朱建华.基于二维GIS的水利工程选址的研究[J].海洋测绘，2003(6)，34-37.
[99]谢韬.遥感和GIS技术支持下的大石峡水电站库区滑坡敏感性评价[D].成都理工大学硕士学位论文.2007，05.
[100]卓宝熙.工程地质遥感判释与应用[M].北京：中国铁道出版社，2002.
[101]RL舒斯特，RJ克利泽克.滑坡的分析与防治[M].北京：中国铁道出版社，1987.
[102]胡德勇.热带雨林地区高分辨率遥感影像信息提取及滑坡灾害分析[D].北京师范大学，博士学位论文，2007.
[103]王治华.中国滑坡遥感[J].国土资源遥感，2005，63：2-6.
[104]王治华.滑坡、泥石流遥感回顾与新技术展望[J].国土资源遥感,1999，14：10-14.
[105]刘广润,晏鄂川,练操.论滑坡分类[J],工程地质学报,2002,10(4):339-342.
[106]张倬元,王士天,王兰生.工程地质分析原理[M].北京:地质出版社,1994,184-231.
[107]何淑军.陕西宝鸡市渭滨区地质灾害风险评估研究[D].中国地质科学院，2009.
[108]Mauro Rossi,Fausto Guzzetti,Paola Reichenbach,Alessandro CesareMondini,Silvia Peruccacci.Optimal landslide susceptibilityzonation based on multiple forecasts[J]. Geomorphology,2009,114:129-142.
[109]向喜琼.区域滑坡地质灾害危险性评价与风险管理[D].成都理工大学博士学位论文,2005.
[110]邱海军,区域滑坡崩塌地质灾害特征分析及其易发性和危险性评价研究[D].西北大学,2012.
[111]Carrara A,Cardinali M,Detti R,Guzzetti F,PasquiV,ReichenbachP. GISTechniques and statistical models in evaluating landslidehazard[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landfonn.1991,16:427-445.
[112]邱骋，王纯祥，江崎哲郎，谢漠文.基于边坡单元的公路沿线滑坡危险度概率分析[J].岩土力学.2005.26(11):1731-1736.
[113]Carrara A, Cardinali M, Detti R, Guzzetti F, PasquiV, ReichenbachP.GIS Techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslidehazard[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landform1991,16:427-445.
[114]Carrara A, Crosta G.B, Frattini P. Comparing models of debris-flowsusceptibility in the alpine environment[J].Geomorphology,2008,94:353-378.
[115]Carrara A, Crosta G.B, Frattini P. Geomorphological and historicaldata in assessing landslide hazard [J]. Earth Surface Processes andLandforms,2003,28:1125-1142
[116]Carrara A,Guzzetti F,Cardinali M,ReichenbachR.Use of GIS tech-nology in the prediction and monitoring of landslide hazard[J].Natural Hazards,1999,20:117-135
[117]李军,周成虎.基于栅格GIS滑坡风险评价方法中格网大小选取分析[J].遥感学报，2003.7(2)：86-92.
[118]Yin Zhi-Yong, Wang Xin-Hao.A Cros-sscale Comparison of DrainageBasin Characteristics Derived from Digital Elevation Models[J].Earth Surf ace Processes and Landform,1999,24:557-562.
[119]Weihua Zhang, David R Montgomery, Digital Elevation Model Grid Size,Landscape Representation,and Hydrologic Simulations[J].WaterResources Research,1994,30(4):1019-1028.
[120]Stephen J. McGregor. An Integrated Geographic Information SystemApproach for Modeling the Suitability of Conifer Habitat in anAlpine Environment[J].Geomorphology,1998,21:265-280.
[121]Philip T, Steven E. An automated approach to the classification ofthe slope units using digital data[J].Geomorphology,1998,21:251-264.
[122]周翠英，林春秀，刘祚秋等.基于GIS技术的区域性滑坡发生概率分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报，2004，23(6)：911-914.
[123]SHORTLIFFE E H，BUCHANAN B G.A model of inexact reasoning in medicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences，1975，23(3)：351–379.
[124]HECKERMAN D.Probabilistic Interpretation for MYCIN’s CertaintyFactors[J], Proceedings: UAI.1985：167–196.
[125]肖桐.基于GIS的兰州市滑坡空间模拟研究[D].兰州:兰州大学资源环境学院,2006.
[126]杨志法,陈剑.关于滑坡预测预报方法的思考[J].工程地质学报，2004，12(2):118-123.
[127]高庆华,马宗晋,苏桂武.环境，灾害与地学[J].地学前缘，2001(1):9-14.
[128]向俊红.概论滑坡碑定性影响因素[J].铁道勘察，2009(4):27-28.
[129]王秀云.基于DEM的地貌分析研究—以宁镇地区为例[D].南京师范大学硕士学位论文，2006.
[130]刘应辉.汶川地震区都汶公路沿线崩塌滑坡灾害特征与评价[D].兰州大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[131]夏金梧,郭厚祯.长江上游地区滑坡分布特征及主要控制因素探讨[J].水文地质工程地质,1997,41(1):19-32.
[132]周启明,刘学军.地形分析[M].北京：科学出版社，2008.
[133]刘新华，杨勤科，汤国安.中国地形起伏度的提取及在水土流失定量评价中的应用[J].水土保持通报，2001,21(1):57-62.
[134]唐飞,陈曦,程维明等.基于DEM的准噶尔盆地及其西北山区地势起伏度研究[J].干旱区地理,2006,29(3):388-392.
[135]王岩,刘少峰.基于DEM的青海贵德地区地形起伏度的研究[J].地质通报,2008,27(12):2117-2121.
[136]贺奋琴.基于RS和GIS的水土流失因子提取与分析-以攀枝花市为例[D].成都:成都理工大学,2004.
[137]孙红雨，王长耀，牛铮，等.中国地表植被覆盖变化及其与气候因子关系-基于NOAA时间序列数据分析[J].遥感学报，19982(3):205-210.
[138]刘玉洁，杨忠东.MODIS遥感信息处理原理与算法[M].北京:科学出版社，2001.
[139]陈云浩，李晓兵，史培军.北京海淀区植被覆盖的遥感动态研究[J].植物生态学报，2001，25(5):588-593.
[140]张云霞，李晓兵，陈云浩.草地植被覆盖度的多尺度遥感与实地测量方法综述[J].地球科学进展，2003，18(1):85-95.
[141]Mandelbrot BB. The Fractal Geometry of Nature[M].W H Freeman，SanFrancisco，1983.
[142]付昱华.变换形成的分形与海洋环境数据分析预测[J].海洋通报，2000，19(1):79-88.
[143]付昱华.风浪流参数的分形分析[J].港工技术，1996,41(3):6-9.
[144]薛天放，杨庆，栾茂田．基于GIS技术的滑坡空间分布的分形特征研究[J]．岩土力学，2007，28(2):347-351.
[145]薛天放．基于地理信息系统技术(GIS)的滑坡空间分布的分形特征研究[D]．大连：大连理工大学，2005.
[146]王志旺．基于GIS技术的区域滑坡分形特征分析与危险性评价[D]．武汉：中国地质大学，2010．
[147]Van Westen C J. Application of geographic information systems tolandslide hazard zonation[M].Netherlands:ITCPublication vol.l5,Enschede,1993.
[148]张淖元,王士天,王兰生.工程地质分析原理[M].北京:地质出版社,1997.
[149]杨志法,陈剑.关于滑坡预测预报方法的思考[J].工程地质学报,2004,12(2):118-123.
[150]高庆华,马宗晋,苏桂武.环境,灾害与地学[J].地学前缘,2001(1):9-14.
[151]向俊红.概论滑坡碑定性影响因素[J].铁道勘察,2009(4):27-28.
[152]贺奋琴.基于RS和GIS的水土流失因子提取与分析-以攀枝花市为例[D].成都:成都理工大学,2004.
[153]张彩霞.基于DEM的地形湿度指数提取与应用研究[D].陕西：西北农林科技大学,2006.
[154]冯庆高，周传波，傅志峰，章广成.基坑支护方案的灰色模糊可变决策模型[J].岩土力学,2010,31(7):2226-2231.
[155]汪克夷，栗金昶，武慧硕．基于组合客观赋权的科技评价研究[J]．科技进步与策,2009(6):129－132.
[156]邱道宏,陈剑平,阙金声,安鹏程.基于粗糙集和人工神经网络的洞室岩体质量评价[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版)，2008，38(1)：86-91.
[157]Barling,R.D.,Moore,I.D.,Grayson,R.B.,Aquasi dynamic wetness ind-ex for characterizing the spatial distribution of zones of surfacesaturation and soil water content[J].Water Resource Research,1994,30:1029-1044.
[158]Beven,K.J.,Kirkby,M.J.,Schoffield,N.,et a1.,Testing a Physically-based flood forecasting model (TOPMODEL)for three UK catchments[J].Journal of Hydrology,1984,69:119-143.
[159]Western,A.W.,Grayson,R.B.,Bl?schl,G.,Willgoose,G.R.,McMahon,T.A., Observed spatial or ganization of soil moisture and its relationto terrain indices[J].Water Resources Research,1999,35(3):797-810.
[160]魏书堤，姜小奇.一种利用信息熵确定属性权重的模糊单因素评价方法[J].计算机工程与科学，2010，32(7):93-107.
[161]石菊松，张永双，董诚等.基于GIS技术的巴东新城区滑坡灾害危险性区划[J].地球学报，2005，25(3)：275-282.
[162]Jose I.Barredo,Annetty Benavides,Javier Hervh. Comparing heuristiclandslide hazard assessment techniques using GIS in the Tirajanabasin[J].Gran Cannaria Island,Spain.JAG.Volume2-Issue1-2000,9-23.
[163]刘传正,李铁峰等.三峡库区地质灾害空间评价预警研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2004(4)：9-19.
[164]杨驰．GIS空间分析建模构想［J］．测绘通报，2006，(11):22．
[165]吴益平,殷坤龙,陈丽霞.滑坡空间预测数学模型的对比及其应用[J].地质科技情报,2007,26(6):95-100.
[166]Dai F C,Lee C F.Landslide characteristics and slope instabilitymodeling using GIS Lantau Island[J],Hong Kong.Geomorphology,2002,42:213-238.
[167]陈丽霞,殷坤龙,张桂荣.浙江省磐安县滑坡灾害空间预测[J].地球与环境.2005,33(增刊):359-363.
[168]李雪平,唐辉明,陈实.基于GIS的Logistic回归在区域滑坡空间预测中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(6):152-155.
[169]Bai S B,Wang Jian,Lu G N,et al.GIS-based logistic regression forlandslide susceptibility mapping of the Zhongxian segment in theThree Gorges area[J],China. Geomorphology,2010,115:23-31.
[170]Lee S,Min K. Statistical analysis of landslide susceptibility atYongin[J],Korea.Environmental Geology,2001,40:1095-1113.
[171]Ohlmacher C G, Davis C J. Using multiple regression and GIStechnology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas[J],USA.Engineering Geology,2003,69:331-343.
[172]Lulseged Ayalew,Hiromitsu Yamagishi. The application of GIS basedlogistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in theKakuda-Yahiko Mountains[J],Central Japan. Geomorphology,2005,65:15-31.
[173]王卫东,陈燕平,钟晟.应用CF值和Logistic回归模型编制滑坡危险性区划图[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2009,40(4):1127-1132.
[174]兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报2002,21(10):100-106.
[175]张文彤.SPSS统计分析教程(高级篇)[M].北京:北京希望电子出版社,2002.
[176]王征征.MAPGIS和SPSS的区域型滑坡危险性区划[D].北京:中国地质大学地球科学与资源学院,2006.
[177]OhH J, Lee S, W isutChotikasathien, ChangHwanKim,et a.l Predictivelandslide susceptibility mapping using spatial information in thePechabun area ofThailand[J]. Environmental Geology,2009,(57):641-651.
[178]许湘华.用Logistic回归模型编制滑坡灾害敏感性区划图的方法研究[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2010，7(5):88-91.
[179]Drummond,C., Holte, R.C.,2000. Explicitly representing expectedcost:an alternative to ROC representation. Proc.of the6thACMSIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and DataMining, pp.198-207.
[180]M.J. Garda-Rodn'guez.J.A. Malpica.. B. Benito,M. Diaz. Suscepti-bility assessment ofearthquake triggered landslides in El Salvadorusing logistic regression[J].Geomorphology,2007，95:172-191.
[181]DavisP.A., Goodrich M.T. A proposed strategy for the validation ofgroundwater flow and solute transport models[R].Albuquerque, NM(USA):Sandia National Labs,1990.
[182]Melchiorre. C, Matteucci,M, Remondo, J.Artificial neural networksand robustness analysis in landslide susceptibility zonation. Proc.International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, Vancouver, BC,Canada,2006.July16-21.
[183]Montgomery D.R.，Dietrich W.E. A physically based model for thetopographic control on shallow landsliding[J].Water ResourcesResearch，1994,30(4):1153-1171.
[184]Ercanoglu M., Gokceoglu C.Assessment of landslide susceptibilityfor a landslide-prone area (north of Venice, NW Turkey) by fuzzyapproach[J].Environmental Geology,2002,41(6):720-730.
[185]Crosta G.B..Franini P. Distributed modeling of shallow landslidestriggered by intense rainfall[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth SystemSciences.2003.3(1-2):81-93.
[186]Irigaray C., Fernandez T., El Hamdouni R, Chacon J. Verificationof landslide susceptibility mapping:a case study [J]. Earth SurfaceProcesses and Landforms1999,24:537-544.
[187]BaezaC, Corominas J. Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibilityby means of multivariate statistical techniques[J]. Earth SurfaceProcesses and Landforms,2001,26(12):1251-1263.
[188]Femandez T Irigaray C., El Hamdouni R., ChaconJ.Methodology forlandslide susceptibility mapping by means of GIS. Application tothe Contraviesa Area(Granada,Spain)[J]. Natural Hazards,2003,30:297-308.
[189]Lee S., Min K.Statistical analysis of landslide susceptibility atYongin, Korea [J].Environmental Geology,2001,40:1095-1113.
[190]Lee S.，Ryu J.H., Min K., Won J.S Landslide susceptibility analysisusing GIS and artificial neural network[J]. Earth Surface Processesand Landforms,2003,28,1361-1376.
[191]ZinckJ.A.. Lopez J.. Metternicht G.I.. Shrestha D.P., VazquezSelemL. Mapping and modelling mass movements and gullies inmountainous areas using remote sensing and GIS techniques[J].International Journal of Applied Earth Observation andGeoinformation,2001,3(1):43-53.
[192]Paoio Frattini, Giovanni Crosta, Alberto Carrara. Techniques forevaluating the performance of landslide susceptibility models[J].Engineering Geology,2010,111:62-72.
[193]Sridevi Jadi.斜坡不稳定性分类的统计模型[J].世界地质,1997,16(1):83-88.
[2]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析的基本原理[J].自然灾害学报，1999，8(2):21-30.
[3]楼宝棠.中国古今地震灾情总汇[M].北京:地震出版社，1996.
[4]张梁，张业成，罗元华等.地质灾害灾情评估理论与实践[M]，北京:地质出版社，1998.
[5]国家科委全国重大自然灾害综合研究组.中国重大自然灾害及减灾对策(总论)[M].中国自然灾害丛书.北京:科学出版社，1994.
[6]虞立红.国内外自然灾害研究概况[M].北京师范大学地理系编.区域·环境·自然灾害地理研究.北京:科学出版社，1990，115-120.
[7]殷坤龙，朱良峰.滑坡灾害空间区划与GIS应用研究[J].地学前缘，2001，8(2):279-2830.
[8]沈芳，黄润秋，苗放，等.地理信息系统与地质环境评价[J].地质灾害与环境保护，2000，11(1):6-10.
[9]朱良峰，殷坤龙，张梁等.GIS支持下的地质灾害风险分析[J].长江科学院院报，2002，54(5):42-45.
[10]刘传正.长江三峡库区的地质灾害及其监测预警[J].科技导报，2000，(11):60-63.
[11]张业成，张梁.论地质灾害风险评价[J].地质灾害与环境保护，1996，7(3)：1-6.
[12]向喜琼，黄润秋.地质灾害风险评价与风险管理[J].地质灾害与环境保护，2000，11(1)：38-41.
[13]张梁，张业成，罗元华等.地质灾害灾情评估理论与实践[M]，北京:地质出版社，1998.
[14] FellR, H.K, LaeasseS, LeroiE. Aframework for landslide riskassessment and management in The International conference onLandslide Risk Management[J].2005.Vann couver, Canada: A.A.Balkema Publishers.
[15]石菊松.基于遥感和地理信息系统的滑坡风险评估关键技术[D].中国地质科学院博士学位论文，2008，05.
[16]卓宝熙.工程地质遥感判释与应用[M].北京:中国铁道出版社，2002:538-539.
[17]殷坤龙,朱良峰.滑坡灾害空间区划及GIS应用研究[J].地学前缘,2002,8(2).
[18]阮沈勇,黄润秋.基于GIS的信息量法模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].成都理工学院学报,2001,29(1):87-89.
[19] sheko A.E., Theoretical principles of region temporary predictionof landslide activation[J],Bulletin of IAEG Prague, No.I6,1997，69-72.
[20] Carrara A.，Multivariate models for landslide hazard evaluation[J],Math.Geol.,1983,15:403-26.
[21] Brabb E.E.,Innovation approaches to landslide hazard and riskmaping[J], Proc.of4th ISL,Toronto,1984,307-323.
[22] Brand E.W.,Landslide risk assessment in HongKong[J],Landslide,1988,1059-1074.
[23] Cross M.,Landslide susceptiibility mapping using two matrixassessment approach,Geohazards in engineering geology edited by J.GMaund and M.Eddleston[J]. Geological society engineering geologyspecial publication NO.15, London,1998,247-264.
[24] Nilsen T.H. Brabb E.E. Slope stability studies in the San FranciscoBay region, California, Geol[J].Soc.Amercia, Reviews in Eng.Geol.,1977,235-243.
[25] Takashi. Japan-China joint symposium on slope stability and theircontrol[Z].1995.114-118.
[26] Michael-leiba M. Quantitative landslides risk assessment of CaimsAustralia[Z].
[27] Aleotti P., Baldelli P., Polloni G. et. al. Hydrogeological riskassessment of the Po river basin (Italy)[Z]. Landslides in research,theory and practice,13-18,Thomas Telford,London,2000.
[28]褚洪斌，母海东等.层次分析法在太行山区地质灾害危险性分区中的应用[J]中国地质灾害与防治学报.2003.14(3):125-129.
[29]伏永朋，常宏，李速.湖北省谷城县地质灾害易发程度分区评价[J].地质调查与研究,2007.30(1):70-75.
[30]向喜琼，黄润秋.基于GIS的人工神经网络模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报.2000.11(3)23-27.
[31]胡金，李波，杨艳锋.GIS在云南普甸县地质灾害易发性分区中的应用[J].灾害学.2008.23(l):73-75.
[32]皇甫行丰，李坷凌.古维普河南红旗集沿线地质灾害易发性评[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报.2004.15(3):30-33.
[33]谢晓娟.地质环境条件及诱发因素在地质灾害易发分区中定量化评价初探[J].探矿工程.2003(增刊):93-95.
[34]张春山，张业成，马寅生.黄河上游地区崩塌、滑坡、泥石流地质灾害区域危险性评价[J].地质力学学报2003，(2):143-153.
[35]张业成，胡景江，张春山.中国地质灾害危险性分析与灾变区划[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质.1995.15(3):55-67.
[36]黄润秋，许强，沈芳等.基于GIS的地质灾害区域评价与危险性区划系统研究[A].第三届海峡两岸三地环境灾害研讨会论文集[C].台北.2001.177-182.
[37]朱良峰，吴信才，殷坤龙，刘修国.基于信息量模型的中国滑坡灾害风险区划研究[J].地球科学与环境学报.2004.26(3):52-56.
[38]张桂荣，般坤龙，刘传正等.基于GIS的陕西省旬阳地区滑坡灾害危险性区划[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报.
[39]阮沈勇，黄润秋.基于GIS的信息量法模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].成都理工学院学报.2001.28(l):89-92.
[40]晏同珍，杨顺安，方云.滑坡学[M].武汉.中国地质大学出版社.2000.
[41]晏同珍，白晓辉，般坤仑等.江汉河谷安康段滑坡分布规律及空间预测[A].滑坡文集.1990.第7集.
[42]刘传正等.长江三峡库区地质灾害成因与评价研究[M].北京.地质出版社.2007.
[43]吴树仁，石菊松，王涛，突发地质灾害预侧评价概论[J]地质通报2008.27(11):1753-1763.
[44]王志恒.基于GIS的四川省低山丘陵区滑坡危险性评价研究[D].首都师范大学博士学位论文.2011.
[45] Chau, K.T. Landslide hazard analysis for HongKongusing landslideinventory and GIS [J]. Computers Geoselenees.2004.
[46] NeauPane, K.M.andM.Piantanakulehai.Analytic network process modelfor landslide hazard zonation[J].Engineering Geology.2006，85(3-4):281-294.
[47]张桂荣,殷坤龙.区域滑坡空间预测方法研究及结果分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报.2005,24(23):4297-4302.
[48] Lee,s.,J.H.Ryu.Determination and application of the weights forlandslide susceptibility mapping using an artificial neuralnetwork[J].Engineering Geology.2004,71(3-4):289-302.
[49] Ayalew, L.and H.Yamagishi.The application of GIS-based logisticregression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kakuda-Yahiko Mountains, Central Japan [J].Geonorphology.2005，65(1-2):15-31.
[50] Gomez,H.and T.Kavzoglu. Assessment of shallow landslide suscepti-bility using artificial neural networks in Jabonosa River Basin,Venezuela[J].Engineering Geology.2005,78(l-2):11-27.
[51] Wallg,H.B.,W.YXu,etal.Slope stability evaluation using Backpropag-ation Neural Networks [J].Engineering Geology.2005，80(3-4):302-315.
[52] Van Westen,C.J.Landslide hazard and risk zonation-why is it stillso difficult[J]. Bull. Eng. Geol. Env,2005,64:5-23.
[53] Davis,J.C.,C-J.Chung,etal.Two models for evaluating landslide ha-zards[J].Computers&Geoseienees.2006,32(8):1120-l127.
[54]谢漠文,蔡美峰.信息边坡工程学的理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社.2005.
[55]王治华.RS+GPS获取滑坡基本信息[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报，2004，15(1):94-100.
[56]殷跃平.中国地质灾害减灾战略初步研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报，2004，15(20):1-7.
[57] A.Uromeihy，M.R Mahdavifar Landslide hazard zonation of the Kllorsh-rostam Area,Iran, Bull Eng Geol Env[M].2000,58:207-21.
[58] Cees J.van Westen.The Modelling of Landslide Hazards Using GIS.Surveys in GeoPhysics[M].2000,21:241-255.
[59] M.Borga, G. Dalla Fontana，D.Da Ros，L.Marchi. Shallow landslidehazard assessment using a physically based model and digitalelevation data[J].Envirnmental Geology,1998，35:2-3.
[60] CarraraA, Cardinali M,Guzzetti F，Reichenbach P. GIS technologytech-niques in mapping landslide hazard[M].Kuwer，Dordrecht，TheNether-lands，1995:135-175.
[61] Brabb E E.Innovative approaches to landslide hazard and riskmapping[A].In:Proeessings4th International Symposium onLandslides[C],Toronto,Canada,1984,1:307-324.
[62] Van Westen CJ. Remote sensing and geographic information systemsfor geological hazard mitigation[J].ITC-Journal,1993,4:393-399.
[63] Mario Mejia，Navarro.利用地理信息系统(GIS)进行地质灾害和风险评估-研究方法和模型在哥伦比亚麦德林地区的应用[J].地质科学译丛,1995,12(3):35-52.
[64] C.J.Van Westen， N.Rengers,M.TJ.Terlien. Prediction of theoccurrence of slope instability phenomena through GIS-based hazardzonation，GeolRundsch[M],1997,86:404-414.
[65] R.Nagarajam,A.Roy, R.Vinod Kumar, A.Mukherhee.V.Khire. Landsidehazard susceptibility mapping based on terrain and climatic factorsfor tropical monsoon regions[M].Bull Eng Geol Env.2000,58:275-287.
[66] Saro Lee,Kyungduck Min.Statistical analysis of landslide suscep-tibility at Yongin, Korea[J],2001,40:1095-1113.
[67] Ohlmacher Gregory C,Davis John C.Using multiple logistic regressionand GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeastKansas[J], USA. Engineering Geology.2003,69:331-343.
[68] Dai FC,Lee CF.Landslide characteristics and slope instabilitymodel-ing using GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong[J].Geomorphology.2002,48:213-228.
[69] Lin M L.Tung CC.A GIS-based potential analysis of the landslidesinduced by the Chi-Chi earthquake[J].EngineeringGeology,2003,64:63-77.
[70] Mehmet Lütfi Süzen,Vedat Doyuran. A comparison of the GIS basedlandslide susceptibility assessment methods: multivariate versusbivariate[J],2004,45:665-679.
[71] H.K.Shrestha，R.Yatabe，N.P.Bhandary. Use of groundwater flow modelin the analysis of a creeping landslide in western Japan[J].Episodes，2006，29(1):20-24.
[72]李家存，李京，Jasmi.基于概率指数模型的区域滑坡危险性评价[J].中国图象图形学报.2007，12(8):1471-1475.
[73]王治华.进藏公路、铁路沿线地区地质环境遥感调查[M].北京:地质出版社，2004.
[74]王治华.数字滑坡技术及其应用[J].现代地质，2005，6(19):157-164.
[75] Shan Xin-jian Ye Hong,Li Chao-fen,etal.Prediction method ofdangerous areas of regional landslide based on GIS and itsapplication. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering.2002,21(10):1507-1514.
[76]殷坤龙，朱良峰.滑坡灾害空间区划及GIS应用研究[J].地学前缘，2001，8(2):279-284.
[77]阮沈勇，黄润秋.基于GIS的信息量法模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].成都理工学院学报，2001，29(1):89-92。
[78]唐红梅，林孝松，陈洪凯.重庆万州区地质灾害危险性分区及评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报，2004，15(3):l-4.
[79]温守钦，李仁锋，任群智等.GIS技术在地质灾害区划中的应用[J].中国地质，2005，32(3)：512-517.
[80]赵建华，陈汉林，杨树锋.滑坡灾害危险性评价模型比较[J].自然灾害学报，2006，15(1):128-134.
[81]涂长红，商建林，谢叶彩，廖化荣.改进的灰色关联分析在滑坡危险性评价中的应用-以广东省滑坡危险性评价为例[J].灾害学，2007，22(1):86-89.
[82]高克吕，崔鹏，赵纯勇，韦方强.基于地理信息系统和信息量模型的滑坡危险性评价-以重庆万州为例[J].岩石力学与工程学报，2006，25(5):991-996.
[83]马小计，杨自安，邹林.抚顺市市区地质灾害遥感调查研究[J].中国地质，2006，33(5):1167-1173.
[84] Tang Huiming, WuYIPing. Spatial prediction of landslide for Badongcounty in the Three Gorges reservoir district[J].Global Geology，2006，9(2):124-130.
[85]白世彪，王建，间国年.基于GIS和双变量分析模型的三峡库区滑坡灾害易发性制图[J].山地学报，2007，25(l):85-92.
[86]张晨,王清,陈剑平,谷复光,张文.金沙江流域泥石流的组合赋权法危险度评价[J].岩土力学.2011，32(3)：831-836.
[87]张晨,陈剑平,王清,张文,阙金声.基于水系三维模型及分形理论对泥石流活动强度的研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报.2010,29(6):1214-1221.
[88]张晨，陈剑平，王清，张文.基于分形理论和流域水系分布特征的泥石流研究[J].水利学报,2011，42(3)：351-356.
[89]张文，陈剑平，秦胜伍，张晨，李明.基于主成分分析的FCM法在泥石流分类中的应用[J].吉林大学学报(地学版).2010，40(3):368-372.
[90]徐佩华,陈剑平,阙金声,仲志成,王清.基于人工神经网络的三峡水库库岸稳定性分级[J].吉林大学学报(地学版).2007，37(3):564-569.
[91]谭春，陈剑平，李会中，牛岑岑，张文，周福军.加权距离判别法在泥石流危险度评价中的应用[J].吉林大学学报(地学版).2012(6):1847-1852.
[92]谷复光，王清，张晨。基于投影寻踪与可拓学方法的泥石流危险度评价[J].吉林大学学报(地学版).2010，40(2):373-377.
[93]徐黎明，王清，陈剑平，潘玉珍。基于BP神经网络的泥石流平均流速预测[J].吉林大学学报(地学版).2013(1):186-191.
[94]张文春，陈剑平，张丽。基于人工神经网络的三峡库区丰都县水库塌岸预测[J].吉林大学学报(地学版).2010，40(2):378-382.
[95]邓辉.高精度卫星遥感技术在地质灾害调查与评价中的应用[D].成都：成都理工大学博士学位论文，2007.
[96]徐鹏杰，邓磊.遥感技术在减灾救灾中的应用[J].遥感技术与应用，2011，26(8):512-519.
[97]杨金香.遥感在地质灾害研究中的应用[J].煤田地质与勘探，2005，33:30-32.
[98]张华，朱建华.基于二维GIS的水利工程选址的研究[J].海洋测绘，2003(6)，34-37.
[99]谢韬.遥感和GIS技术支持下的大石峡水电站库区滑坡敏感性评价[D].成都理工大学硕士学位论文.2007，05.
[100]卓宝熙.工程地质遥感判释与应用[M].北京：中国铁道出版社，2002.
[101]RL舒斯特，RJ克利泽克.滑坡的分析与防治[M].北京：中国铁道出版社，1987.
[102]胡德勇.热带雨林地区高分辨率遥感影像信息提取及滑坡灾害分析[D].北京师范大学，博士学位论文，2007.
[103]王治华.中国滑坡遥感[J].国土资源遥感，2005，63：2-6.
[104]王治华.滑坡、泥石流遥感回顾与新技术展望[J].国土资源遥感,1999，14：10-14.
[105]刘广润,晏鄂川,练操.论滑坡分类[J],工程地质学报,2002,10(4):339-342.
[106]张倬元,王士天,王兰生.工程地质分析原理[M].北京:地质出版社,1994,184-231.
[107]何淑军.陕西宝鸡市渭滨区地质灾害风险评估研究[D].中国地质科学院，2009.
[108]Mauro Rossi,Fausto Guzzetti,Paola Reichenbach,Alessandro CesareMondini,Silvia Peruccacci.Optimal landslide susceptibilityzonation based on multiple forecasts[J]. Geomorphology,2009,114:129-142.
[109]向喜琼.区域滑坡地质灾害危险性评价与风险管理[D].成都理工大学博士学位论文,2005.
[110]邱海军,区域滑坡崩塌地质灾害特征分析及其易发性和危险性评价研究[D].西北大学,2012.
[111]Carrara A,Cardinali M,Detti R,Guzzetti F,PasquiV,ReichenbachP. GISTechniques and statistical models in evaluating landslidehazard[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landfonn.1991,16:427-445.
[112]邱骋，王纯祥，江崎哲郎，谢漠文.基于边坡单元的公路沿线滑坡危险度概率分析[J].岩土力学.2005.26(11):1731-1736.
[113]Carrara A, Cardinali M, Detti R, Guzzetti F, PasquiV, ReichenbachP.GIS Techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslidehazard[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landform1991,16:427-445.
[114]Carrara A, Crosta G.B, Frattini P. Comparing models of debris-flowsusceptibility in the alpine environment[J].Geomorphology,2008,94:353-378.
[115]Carrara A, Crosta G.B, Frattini P. Geomorphological and historicaldata in assessing landslide hazard [J]. Earth Surface Processes andLandforms,2003,28:1125-1142
[116]Carrara A,Guzzetti F,Cardinali M,ReichenbachR.Use of GIS tech-nology in the prediction and monitoring of landslide hazard[J].Natural Hazards,1999,20:117-135
[117]李军,周成虎.基于栅格GIS滑坡风险评价方法中格网大小选取分析[J].遥感学报，2003.7(2)：86-92.
[118]Yin Zhi-Yong, Wang Xin-Hao.A Cros-sscale Comparison of DrainageBasin Characteristics Derived from Digital Elevation Models[J].Earth Surf ace Processes and Landform,1999,24:557-562.
[119]Weihua Zhang, David R Montgomery, Digital Elevation Model Grid Size,Landscape Representation,and Hydrologic Simulations[J].WaterResources Research,1994,30(4):1019-1028.
[120]Stephen J. McGregor. An Integrated Geographic Information SystemApproach for Modeling the Suitability of Conifer Habitat in anAlpine Environment[J].Geomorphology,1998,21:265-280.
[121]Philip T, Steven E. An automated approach to the classification ofthe slope units using digital data[J].Geomorphology,1998,21:251-264.
[122]周翠英，林春秀，刘祚秋等.基于GIS技术的区域性滑坡发生概率分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报，2004，23(6)：911-914.
[123]SHORTLIFFE E H，BUCHANAN B G.A model of inexact reasoning in medicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences，1975，23(3)：351–379.
[124]HECKERMAN D.Probabilistic Interpretation for MYCIN’s CertaintyFactors[J], Proceedings: UAI.1985：167–196.
[125]肖桐.基于GIS的兰州市滑坡空间模拟研究[D].兰州:兰州大学资源环境学院,2006.
[126]杨志法,陈剑.关于滑坡预测预报方法的思考[J].工程地质学报，2004，12(2):118-123.
[127]高庆华,马宗晋,苏桂武.环境，灾害与地学[J].地学前缘，2001(1):9-14.
[128]向俊红.概论滑坡碑定性影响因素[J].铁道勘察，2009(4):27-28.
[129]王秀云.基于DEM的地貌分析研究—以宁镇地区为例[D].南京师范大学硕士学位论文，2006.
[130]刘应辉.汶川地震区都汶公路沿线崩塌滑坡灾害特征与评价[D].兰州大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[131]夏金梧,郭厚祯.长江上游地区滑坡分布特征及主要控制因素探讨[J].水文地质工程地质,1997,41(1):19-32.
[132]周启明,刘学军.地形分析[M].北京：科学出版社，2008.
[133]刘新华，杨勤科，汤国安.中国地形起伏度的提取及在水土流失定量评价中的应用[J].水土保持通报，2001,21(1):57-62.
[134]唐飞,陈曦,程维明等.基于DEM的准噶尔盆地及其西北山区地势起伏度研究[J].干旱区地理,2006,29(3):388-392.
[135]王岩,刘少峰.基于DEM的青海贵德地区地形起伏度的研究[J].地质通报,2008,27(12):2117-2121.
[136]贺奋琴.基于RS和GIS的水土流失因子提取与分析-以攀枝花市为例[D].成都:成都理工大学,2004.
[137]孙红雨，王长耀，牛铮，等.中国地表植被覆盖变化及其与气候因子关系-基于NOAA时间序列数据分析[J].遥感学报，19982(3):205-210.
[138]刘玉洁，杨忠东.MODIS遥感信息处理原理与算法[M].北京:科学出版社，2001.
[139]陈云浩，李晓兵，史培军.北京海淀区植被覆盖的遥感动态研究[J].植物生态学报，2001，25(5):588-593.
[140]张云霞，李晓兵，陈云浩.草地植被覆盖度的多尺度遥感与实地测量方法综述[J].地球科学进展，2003，18(1):85-95.
[141]Mandelbrot BB. The Fractal Geometry of Nature[M].W H Freeman，SanFrancisco，1983.
[142]付昱华.变换形成的分形与海洋环境数据分析预测[J].海洋通报，2000，19(1):79-88.
[143]付昱华.风浪流参数的分形分析[J].港工技术，1996,41(3):6-9.
[144]薛天放，杨庆，栾茂田．基于GIS技术的滑坡空间分布的分形特征研究[J]．岩土力学，2007，28(2):347-351.
[145]薛天放．基于地理信息系统技术(GIS)的滑坡空间分布的分形特征研究[D]．大连：大连理工大学，2005.
[146]王志旺．基于GIS技术的区域滑坡分形特征分析与危险性评价[D]．武汉：中国地质大学，2010．
[147]Van Westen C J. Application of geographic information systems tolandslide hazard zonation[M].Netherlands:ITCPublication vol.l5,Enschede,1993.
[148]张淖元,王士天,王兰生.工程地质分析原理[M].北京:地质出版社,1997.
[149]杨志法,陈剑.关于滑坡预测预报方法的思考[J].工程地质学报,2004,12(2):118-123.
[150]高庆华,马宗晋,苏桂武.环境,灾害与地学[J].地学前缘,2001(1):9-14.
[151]向俊红.概论滑坡碑定性影响因素[J].铁道勘察,2009(4):27-28.
[152]贺奋琴.基于RS和GIS的水土流失因子提取与分析-以攀枝花市为例[D].成都:成都理工大学,2004.
[153]张彩霞.基于DEM的地形湿度指数提取与应用研究[D].陕西：西北农林科技大学,2006.
[154]冯庆高，周传波，傅志峰，章广成.基坑支护方案的灰色模糊可变决策模型[J].岩土力学,2010,31(7):2226-2231.
[155]汪克夷，栗金昶，武慧硕．基于组合客观赋权的科技评价研究[J]．科技进步与策,2009(6):129－132.
[156]邱道宏,陈剑平,阙金声,安鹏程.基于粗糙集和人工神经网络的洞室岩体质量评价[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版)，2008，38(1)：86-91.
[157]Barling,R.D.,Moore,I.D.,Grayson,R.B.,Aquasi dynamic wetness ind-ex for characterizing the spatial distribution of zones of surfacesaturation and soil water content[J].Water Resource Research,1994,30:1029-1044.
[158]Beven,K.J.,Kirkby,M.J.,Schoffield,N.,et a1.,Testing a Physically-based flood forecasting model (TOPMODEL)for three UK catchments[J].Journal of Hydrology,1984,69:119-143.
[159]Western,A.W.,Grayson,R.B.,Bl?schl,G.,Willgoose,G.R.,McMahon,T.A., Observed spatial or ganization of soil moisture and its relationto terrain indices[J].Water Resources Research,1999,35(3):797-810.
[160]魏书堤，姜小奇.一种利用信息熵确定属性权重的模糊单因素评价方法[J].计算机工程与科学，2010，32(7):93-107.
[161]石菊松，张永双，董诚等.基于GIS技术的巴东新城区滑坡灾害危险性区划[J].地球学报，2005，25(3)：275-282.
[162]Jose I.Barredo,Annetty Benavides,Javier Hervh. Comparing heuristiclandslide hazard assessment techniques using GIS in the Tirajanabasin[J].Gran Cannaria Island,Spain.JAG.Volume2-Issue1-2000,9-23.
[163]刘传正,李铁峰等.三峡库区地质灾害空间评价预警研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2004(4)：9-19.
[164]杨驰．GIS空间分析建模构想［J］．测绘通报，2006，(11):22．
[165]吴益平,殷坤龙,陈丽霞.滑坡空间预测数学模型的对比及其应用[J].地质科技情报,2007,26(6):95-100.
[166]Dai F C,Lee C F.Landslide characteristics and slope instabilitymodeling using GIS Lantau Island[J],Hong Kong.Geomorphology,2002,42:213-238.
[167]陈丽霞,殷坤龙,张桂荣.浙江省磐安县滑坡灾害空间预测[J].地球与环境.2005,33(增刊):359-363.
[168]李雪平,唐辉明,陈实.基于GIS的Logistic回归在区域滑坡空间预测中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(6):152-155.
[169]Bai S B,Wang Jian,Lu G N,et al.GIS-based logistic regression forlandslide susceptibility mapping of the Zhongxian segment in theThree Gorges area[J],China. Geomorphology,2010,115:23-31.
[170]Lee S,Min K. Statistical analysis of landslide susceptibility atYongin[J],Korea.Environmental Geology,2001,40:1095-1113.
[171]Ohlmacher C G, Davis C J. Using multiple regression and GIStechnology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas[J],USA.Engineering Geology,2003,69:331-343.
[172]Lulseged Ayalew,Hiromitsu Yamagishi. The application of GIS basedlogistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in theKakuda-Yahiko Mountains[J],Central Japan. Geomorphology,2005,65:15-31.
[173]王卫东,陈燕平,钟晟.应用CF值和Logistic回归模型编制滑坡危险性区划图[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2009,40(4):1127-1132.
[174]兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报2002,21(10):100-106.
[175]张文彤.SPSS统计分析教程(高级篇)[M].北京:北京希望电子出版社,2002.
[176]王征征.MAPGIS和SPSS的区域型滑坡危险性区划[D].北京:中国地质大学地球科学与资源学院,2006.
[177]OhH J, Lee S, W isutChotikasathien, ChangHwanKim,et a.l Predictivelandslide susceptibility mapping using spatial information in thePechabun area ofThailand[J]. Environmental Geology,2009,(57):641-651.
[178]许湘华.用Logistic回归模型编制滑坡灾害敏感性区划图的方法研究[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2010，7(5):88-91.
[179]Drummond,C., Holte, R.C.,2000. Explicitly representing expectedcost:an alternative to ROC representation. Proc.of the6thACMSIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and DataMining, pp.198-207.
[180]M.J. Garda-Rodn'guez.J.A. Malpica.. B. Benito,M. Diaz. Suscepti-bility assessment ofearthquake triggered landslides in El Salvadorusing logistic regression[J].Geomorphology,2007，95:172-191.
[181]DavisP.A., Goodrich M.T. A proposed strategy for the validation ofgroundwater flow and solute transport models[R].Albuquerque, NM(USA):Sandia National Labs,1990.
[182]Melchiorre. C, Matteucci,M, Remondo, J.Artificial neural networksand robustness analysis in landslide susceptibility zonation. Proc.International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, Vancouver, BC,Canada,2006.July16-21.
[183]Montgomery D.R.，Dietrich W.E. A physically based model for thetopographic control on shallow landsliding[J].Water ResourcesResearch，1994,30(4):1153-1171.
[184]Ercanoglu M., Gokceoglu C.Assessment of landslide susceptibilityfor a landslide-prone area (north of Venice, NW Turkey) by fuzzyapproach[J].Environmental Geology,2002,41(6):720-730.
[185]Crosta G.B..Franini P. Distributed modeling of shallow landslidestriggered by intense rainfall[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth SystemSciences.2003.3(1-2):81-93.
[186]Irigaray C., Fernandez T., El Hamdouni R, Chacon J. Verificationof landslide susceptibility mapping:a case study [J]. Earth SurfaceProcesses and Landforms1999,24:537-544.
[187]BaezaC, Corominas J. Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibilityby means of multivariate statistical techniques[J]. Earth SurfaceProcesses and Landforms,2001,26(12):1251-1263.
[188]Femandez T Irigaray C., El Hamdouni R., ChaconJ.Methodology forlandslide susceptibility mapping by means of GIS. Application tothe Contraviesa Area(Granada,Spain)[J]. Natural Hazards,2003,30:297-308.
[189]Lee S., Min K.Statistical analysis of landslide susceptibility atYongin, Korea [J].Environmental Geology,2001,40:1095-1113.
[190]Lee S.，Ryu J.H., Min K., Won J.S Landslide susceptibility analysisusing GIS and artificial neural network[J]. Earth Surface Processesand Landforms,2003,28,1361-1376.
[191]ZinckJ.A.. Lopez J.. Metternicht G.I.. Shrestha D.P., VazquezSelemL. Mapping and modelling mass movements and gullies inmountainous areas using remote sensing and GIS techniques[J].International Journal of Applied Earth Observation andGeoinformation,2001,3(1):43-53.
[192]Paoio Frattini, Giovanni Crosta, Alberto Carrara. Techniques forevaluating the performance of landslide susceptibility models[J].Engineering Geology,2010,111:62-72.
[193]Sridevi Jadi.斜坡不稳定性分类的统计模型[J].世界地质,1997,16(1):83-88.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |