基于多源空间信息的干旱监测模型构建及其应用研究
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摘要
在全球气候变化越来越复杂的大背景下,我国近几十年来干旱频发,给粮食生产安全带来了潜在隐患,因此研究区域干旱时空演化特征及其发展趋势,对地方政府抗旱行动和区域农业生产将有重要的指导意义。本文从大气水汽环流异常、土壤水分胁迫和地表植被响应等方面,对干旱致灾因子和遥感监测机理进行分析,利用空间数据挖掘技术中的分类回归树方法,对大量干旱关联因子数据进行模糊挖掘,构建半经验半机理的干旱监测模型,并以山东省为例,重建了2000-2010年的干旱时空信息,定量的监测了近十年来山东省所经历的干旱过程。在此基础之上,利用多种空间数据时序分析方法,对山东干旱的时空演化特征进行研究。论文取得了以下几点成果与结论：
(1)从致旱机理和旱灾响应的角度,综合分析了干旱过程涉及的大气、土壤、植被等多种致灾因子及载体,指出单一的气象干旱、农业干旱或水文干旱指标很难准确衡量干旱这一自然过程,只有综合考虑大气降水、植被生长和土壤水分供需平衡等多种因子及其内部耦合过程的干旱监测机理模型,从地表水分平衡系统失衡的角度才能准确监测和模拟干旱这一自然现象,并提出了综合干旱监测这一概念。
(2)使用热带降水测量卫星(TRMM)3B43的逐月降水量资料和单站干旱监测Z指数方法,构建用于大气降水亏缺遥感监测的TRMM-Z指数,并用同期标准化降水指数(SPI)对TRMM-Z指数进行了验证。研究表明TRMM-Z指数监测出的干旱发生、发展过程与实际旱情相符,其监测结果与15个地级市的站点SPI相关系数大多超过了0.8,且通过了P<0.01的显著性检验。
(3)提出了两种针对MOD11A2/MYD11A2地表温度产品和MOD13A3植被指数产品的质量控制算法,这两种质量控制算法能极大地去除时间序列数据的噪声,提高数据质量,在此基础上还利用Savitzky-Golay滤波技术对时间序列植被指数进行去噪平滑处理。基于干旱事件会影响地表植被生长和昼夜温差变化的这一机理,论文提出了标准化植被异常指数和标准化地温异常指数,并应用到了干旱监测和后续模型构建之中。
(4)基于模糊空间数据挖掘的理论,在获取各建模自变量和因变量的基础上,利用分类回归树方法,构建综合干旱监测模型,计算综合干旱指数。综合干旱指数不仅考虑了气象降水亏缺、土壤水分胁迫、植被生长状态等因素,还考虑了土地利用类型、土壤有效持水量等因素,可以定量描述复杂的干旱过程。论文以2010年为例,分析了山东逐月综合干旱指数的时空变化,结果显示该指数监测的干旱过程和强度与实际报道的旱情一致；从2000-2010年的时序变化情况可以看出,该指数可以较好地监测出历史时期厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)等重大气候事件引发的干旱过程与持续时间。
(5)综合干旱指数的验证结果表明,在作物的主要生长期,综合干旱指数与标准化作物单产变量有较好的相关性,相关系数超过0.6,且能通过P<0.05的显著性检验；综合干旱指数与作物受灾面积的相关系数在-0.67～-0.85之间,除3月份外,其它均通过了P<0.01的显著性检验,相关系数普遍略高于同期其它已有干旱指数与作物受灾面积的相关系数；综合干旱指数的波动还能反映出土壤湿度信息变化,并与SPEI、SPI等气象干旱指数也显著相关。
(6)利用综合干旱指数和多种时空分析手段,对山东2000-2010年春夏秋冬四个季节的干旱时空演化特征进行了研究。变异系数由大到小依次是春季、夏季、秋季和冬季；综合干旱指数与时间变量的线性回归与相关分析结果表明,春夏两季干旱有越来越弱的趋势,冬季干旱有逐年加剧的趋势；重新标度极差分析显示春夏季节的综合干旱指数具有长持续特征,而冬季具有反持续特征；在不同的显著性水平下,Sen趋势度分析也得到了相同的干旱发展趋势结果。综合可以得出,山东春夏干旱会有显著减弱趋势,而冬季干旱则有显著增强趋势,秋季干旱目前尚无明确的演化方向。
In the context of the global climate change more and more complex, China was affected frequently by drought in recent decades, which has brought potential hazards to the safety of China's grain production. Therefore, the research of spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and development trend of drought in region will have important meaning for drought relief of the local government and regional agricultural planning. The thesis analyzes the causing hazard factors and remote sensing monitoring mechanism from the perspective of the circulation of atmospheric water vapor, soil water stress and vegetation response to drought hazards. A large number of drought associated factor data was mined using spatial data fuzzy mining technology of classification and regression tree and a semi-empirical and semi-mechanistic drought monitoring model was built. A synthesized drought index from2000to2010in Shandong province was calculated using this model and the temporal and spatial information of drought been constructed. Based on this, the characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution of drought were studied using five kinds of spatial data timing analysis method in Shandong. This research work realized the precise monitoring and quantitative description of drought process over the past decade in Shandong province. The study obtained the following results and conclusions:
(1) From the point of view of drought mechanism and hazard response, the thesis analyzes that the drought process deduced by many causing hazard factors including atmosphere, soil, vegetation and so on. It pointed out that a single meteorological drought, agricultural drought or hydrological drought is difficult to accurately define the natural process of drought. Only the drought monitoring mechanism model which comprehensive considering the atmospheric precipitation, vegetation growth and soil water balance of supply and demand and their internal coupling process can accurately monitor and simulate this natural phenomenon from the point of view land surface water balance system.
(2) The thesis constructed TRMM-Z index using3B43monthly precipitation data of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and single station based Z index drought monitoring method and it was validated using standardized precipitation index (SPI). The results showed that TRMM-Z index could well reflect the occurring and developing process of regional drought and the monitoring results were accord well with actual situation. All the correlation coefficients of the average value of TRMM-Z index with the corresponding station based SPI value were more than0.8and passed the significant test (p-value<0.01).
(3) Two kinds of data quality control algorithm were developed for MODIS surface temperature products (MOD11A2/MYD11A2) and vegetation index products (MOD13A3) and they can remove the noise of the time series data and improve data quality significantly. Besides, the Savitzky-Golay filter was used in time series vegetation index to smoothing and reducing noise. Based on the mechanism of drought events can affect the growth of vegetation and ground temperature periodically changes rules, the thesis put forward standardized vegetation anomaly index and standardized land surface temperature anomaly index and used them to drought monitoring and follow-up model building.
(4) Based on the theory of fuzzy spatial data mining, a classification and regression tree model was built using training variables and it been used to calculate synthesized drought index. Synthesized drought index not only takes into account the meteorological precipitation deficit, soil water stress, vegetation growth status, but also consider the type of land use, the available water capacity of soil and other factors. Therefore, it can used to assess the complex water balance breaking of drought process. As an example, the monthly synthesized drought index of Shandong province was used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of drought. The results showed that occurring and developing of drought event in2010was monitored and it in accord with actual situation. The time series synthesized drought index from2U0U to2010accurately monitored the event and duration of drought in historical periods which was caused by large climatic events such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
(5) The validation results show that synthesized drought index and standardized crop yields variable are correlate and most correlation coefficient over0.6and passed significance test (p-value<0.05) in major crop growing season. The correlation coefficient of synthesized drought index and drought affected crop area is between-0.67to-0.85and most them passed significance test (p-value<0.01) which was slightly higher than the correlation coefficient of other existing drought index and drought affected crop area in same period. Moreover, synthesized drought index can indicated the changes of soil moisture and it was significantly correlated with meteorological drought index such as SPEI, SPI.
(6) The spatial and temporal changes of four season's drought in Shandong province from2000to2010were studied using synthesized drought index and different spatiotemporal analysis methods. The coefficient of variation of synthesized drought index from2000to2010was sequenced as spring, summer, autumn and winter. The linear regression and correlation analysis of synthesized drought index and times show that drought is weakened in spring and summer, but intensified in winter. The results of rescaled range analysis show that the synthesized drought index has a long persistent characteristic in spring and summer, but has anti-persistent characteristic in winter. At different level of significance, Sen's trend analysis has also got the same developing trend of drought. In summary, the drought in Shandong province will have a significant weakening trend in spring and summer, a intensifying trend in winter and still not a clear evolution direction in autumn.
(1)从致旱机理和旱灾响应的角度,综合分析了干旱过程涉及的大气、土壤、植被等多种致灾因子及载体,指出单一的气象干旱、农业干旱或水文干旱指标很难准确衡量干旱这一自然过程,只有综合考虑大气降水、植被生长和土壤水分供需平衡等多种因子及其内部耦合过程的干旱监测机理模型,从地表水分平衡系统失衡的角度才能准确监测和模拟干旱这一自然现象,并提出了综合干旱监测这一概念。
(2)使用热带降水测量卫星(TRMM)3B43的逐月降水量资料和单站干旱监测Z指数方法,构建用于大气降水亏缺遥感监测的TRMM-Z指数,并用同期标准化降水指数(SPI)对TRMM-Z指数进行了验证。研究表明TRMM-Z指数监测出的干旱发生、发展过程与实际旱情相符,其监测结果与15个地级市的站点SPI相关系数大多超过了0.8,且通过了P<0.01的显著性检验。
(3)提出了两种针对MOD11A2/MYD11A2地表温度产品和MOD13A3植被指数产品的质量控制算法,这两种质量控制算法能极大地去除时间序列数据的噪声,提高数据质量,在此基础上还利用Savitzky-Golay滤波技术对时间序列植被指数进行去噪平滑处理。基于干旱事件会影响地表植被生长和昼夜温差变化的这一机理,论文提出了标准化植被异常指数和标准化地温异常指数,并应用到了干旱监测和后续模型构建之中。
(4)基于模糊空间数据挖掘的理论,在获取各建模自变量和因变量的基础上,利用分类回归树方法,构建综合干旱监测模型,计算综合干旱指数。综合干旱指数不仅考虑了气象降水亏缺、土壤水分胁迫、植被生长状态等因素,还考虑了土地利用类型、土壤有效持水量等因素,可以定量描述复杂的干旱过程。论文以2010年为例,分析了山东逐月综合干旱指数的时空变化,结果显示该指数监测的干旱过程和强度与实际报道的旱情一致；从2000-2010年的时序变化情况可以看出,该指数可以较好地监测出历史时期厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)等重大气候事件引发的干旱过程与持续时间。
(5)综合干旱指数的验证结果表明,在作物的主要生长期,综合干旱指数与标准化作物单产变量有较好的相关性,相关系数超过0.6,且能通过P<0.05的显著性检验；综合干旱指数与作物受灾面积的相关系数在-0.67～-0.85之间,除3月份外,其它均通过了P<0.01的显著性检验,相关系数普遍略高于同期其它已有干旱指数与作物受灾面积的相关系数；综合干旱指数的波动还能反映出土壤湿度信息变化,并与SPEI、SPI等气象干旱指数也显著相关。
(6)利用综合干旱指数和多种时空分析手段,对山东2000-2010年春夏秋冬四个季节的干旱时空演化特征进行了研究。变异系数由大到小依次是春季、夏季、秋季和冬季；综合干旱指数与时间变量的线性回归与相关分析结果表明,春夏两季干旱有越来越弱的趋势,冬季干旱有逐年加剧的趋势；重新标度极差分析显示春夏季节的综合干旱指数具有长持续特征,而冬季具有反持续特征；在不同的显著性水平下,Sen趋势度分析也得到了相同的干旱发展趋势结果。综合可以得出,山东春夏干旱会有显著减弱趋势,而冬季干旱则有显著增强趋势,秋季干旱目前尚无明确的演化方向。
In the context of the global climate change more and more complex, China was affected frequently by drought in recent decades, which has brought potential hazards to the safety of China's grain production. Therefore, the research of spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and development trend of drought in region will have important meaning for drought relief of the local government and regional agricultural planning. The thesis analyzes the causing hazard factors and remote sensing monitoring mechanism from the perspective of the circulation of atmospheric water vapor, soil water stress and vegetation response to drought hazards. A large number of drought associated factor data was mined using spatial data fuzzy mining technology of classification and regression tree and a semi-empirical and semi-mechanistic drought monitoring model was built. A synthesized drought index from2000to2010in Shandong province was calculated using this model and the temporal and spatial information of drought been constructed. Based on this, the characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution of drought were studied using five kinds of spatial data timing analysis method in Shandong. This research work realized the precise monitoring and quantitative description of drought process over the past decade in Shandong province. The study obtained the following results and conclusions:
(1) From the point of view of drought mechanism and hazard response, the thesis analyzes that the drought process deduced by many causing hazard factors including atmosphere, soil, vegetation and so on. It pointed out that a single meteorological drought, agricultural drought or hydrological drought is difficult to accurately define the natural process of drought. Only the drought monitoring mechanism model which comprehensive considering the atmospheric precipitation, vegetation growth and soil water balance of supply and demand and their internal coupling process can accurately monitor and simulate this natural phenomenon from the point of view land surface water balance system.
(2) The thesis constructed TRMM-Z index using3B43monthly precipitation data of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and single station based Z index drought monitoring method and it was validated using standardized precipitation index (SPI). The results showed that TRMM-Z index could well reflect the occurring and developing process of regional drought and the monitoring results were accord well with actual situation. All the correlation coefficients of the average value of TRMM-Z index with the corresponding station based SPI value were more than0.8and passed the significant test (p-value<0.01).
(3) Two kinds of data quality control algorithm were developed for MODIS surface temperature products (MOD11A2/MYD11A2) and vegetation index products (MOD13A3) and they can remove the noise of the time series data and improve data quality significantly. Besides, the Savitzky-Golay filter was used in time series vegetation index to smoothing and reducing noise. Based on the mechanism of drought events can affect the growth of vegetation and ground temperature periodically changes rules, the thesis put forward standardized vegetation anomaly index and standardized land surface temperature anomaly index and used them to drought monitoring and follow-up model building.
(4) Based on the theory of fuzzy spatial data mining, a classification and regression tree model was built using training variables and it been used to calculate synthesized drought index. Synthesized drought index not only takes into account the meteorological precipitation deficit, soil water stress, vegetation growth status, but also consider the type of land use, the available water capacity of soil and other factors. Therefore, it can used to assess the complex water balance breaking of drought process. As an example, the monthly synthesized drought index of Shandong province was used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of drought. The results showed that occurring and developing of drought event in2010was monitored and it in accord with actual situation. The time series synthesized drought index from2U0U to2010accurately monitored the event and duration of drought in historical periods which was caused by large climatic events such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
(5) The validation results show that synthesized drought index and standardized crop yields variable are correlate and most correlation coefficient over0.6and passed significance test (p-value<0.05) in major crop growing season. The correlation coefficient of synthesized drought index and drought affected crop area is between-0.67to-0.85and most them passed significance test (p-value<0.01) which was slightly higher than the correlation coefficient of other existing drought index and drought affected crop area in same period. Moreover, synthesized drought index can indicated the changes of soil moisture and it was significantly correlated with meteorological drought index such as SPEI, SPI.
(6) The spatial and temporal changes of four season's drought in Shandong province from2000to2010were studied using synthesized drought index and different spatiotemporal analysis methods. The coefficient of variation of synthesized drought index from2000to2010was sequenced as spring, summer, autumn and winter. The linear regression and correlation analysis of synthesized drought index and times show that drought is weakened in spring and summer, but intensified in winter. The results of rescaled range analysis show that the synthesized drought index has a long persistent characteristic in spring and summer, but has anti-persistent characteristic in winter. At different level of significance, Sen's trend analysis has also got the same developing trend of drought. In summary, the drought in Shandong province will have a significant weakening trend in spring and summer, a intensifying trend in winter and still not a clear evolution direction in autumn.
引文
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