黄河泛滥史：从历史文献分析到计算机模拟
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摘要
据文献记载统计,历史时期黄河下游共发生决溢、改道等大小泛滥事件超过一千次。其中近千年来平均不到25年即发生一次改道,一年一决口,而在明末清初决口频率甚至达到一年三决口。由于河道高悬,黄河决口致灾极其深重,治河成为国家的巨大负担。黄河泛滥是中国环境史上最惨痛的地貌灾难。研究黄河泛滥史,既有助于治理黄河,处理人地关系,实现可持续发展,还可以促进人为地貌学和人地耦合的复杂系统研究,具有重要的现实和理论意义。
本文以复杂系统科学的通用理论和“将今论古”的地质学方法论为指导,应用水力学、河床演变学、河流地貌学、自然地理学等自然科学的理论和研究成果,并广泛采纳历史地理学家和历史学家的研究资料,通过历史文献分析和计算机模型相结合的方法,研究黄河作为一个人地耦合系统,在近四千年中泛滥行为长期变化的动力过程与机制。三项时空跨度不同的具体研究分别采用演绎、归纳和溯因推理这三种推理方式,应用不同的定性和定量研究方法,从不同角度深入探索黄河泛滥史及其成因。
第一项研究通过历史文献和定量重建的时间序列数据,分析4000年来黄河下游泛滥史和中游的农业发展史,理解历史时期黄河泛滥频率阶跃变化、趋于加剧的过程和规律。黄河泛滥行为的驱动机制以正负反馈环、自然过程的阈值、社会经济因子的阶跃性变化为特征,具有复杂性。技术和制度变化是主导驱动力。公元前4世纪铁器普及、人为筑堤启动了一个和黄河决口过程密切相关的正反馈环。这个正反馈环的强度被多沙粗沙区农业开发、陡坡开垦,以及“束水攻沙”的治河策略不断加强,最终导致17世纪黄河泛滥极端高频发生。黄河泛滥格局和中国社会共同演化的特点非常显著,在中游表现为农业活动和土壤侵蚀的关系,在下游表现为中央集权和治河活动相互促进。
第二项研究应用黄河下游河床演变理论和四个主要根据历史文献重建的时间序列数据,构建了1550～1855年的黄河下游按年代平均的决口日概率变化的多元线形回归模型。年径流量、河床平滩流量、前一年的修堤堵口频率以及河道超高这四个变量是决口概率变化的解释变量。不确定性分析结果表明,回归模型的模拟效果较好,所有拟合方程的决定系数的均值约为0.7。模型的拟合度和显著性对全年总出流比的变化敏感。全年总出流比约为0.2～0.4时,拟合方程总体上取得较优的拟合度和显著性。回归模型体现了1550～1855年黄河决口频率变化的两个内在机制。其一,水深是决口的最主要驱动力；其二,决口频率、修堤堵口频率和河床超高相互促进的正反馈环对决口概率变化也有少量贡献。
第三项研究构建了一个复杂度降低型模型,将黄河下游上段200kmm的水沙日变化、河道长期变化和决口平均演化过程有效联合起来,计算不同历史时期的研究河段的决口年数、改道数目、决口规模、改道的超高阈值等变量,用于重建黄河泛滥史,探索气候变化、土地利用和治河活动对黄河泛滥行为的长期影响。敏感性分析结果显示对于少沙黄河,河道超高是唯一能够显著影响决口年数和改道年份的因子。对于多沙黄河,多年平均降水量、河道超高、薄弱段土体的起动切应力以及决口日和堵口日之间的间隔天数联合起来对(大)决口年数和改道数目产生显著影响。多沙黄河河槽宽浅,近岸水流切应力小,河流泛滥行为因此变得对河岸土体的起动切应力敏感。人为加速中游侵蚀情况下,黄河输沙率对降水量变化的敏感性提高,进而导致下游的河槽形态和泛滥行为对降水量变化的敏感性提高。通过对模型进行不确定性分析,推测了850BC～1839AD年间8个历史时期的主导因子的最可能取值(组合),并以假说形态定量重建了黄河泛滥史。模型有两大需要改进之处,其一是超高增长计算过程参数化引发人为侵蚀因子对泛滥行为影响小的假象；其二是小尺度的溯源侵蚀过程无法纳入模型,导致模型无法模拟决口演化影响泛滥行为的反馈机制。
这三项研究的结论可以相互印证,都揭示了黄河泛滥史是中游黄土高原和下游河道的各种固有特性和气候变化、土地利用、治河活动以及时间等诸多因子相互作用的结果,其中人类活动相关的因子起了加剧乃至主导的作用。
According to historical documents, the lower Yellow River has flooded>1000times in the historical times. In the last millennium, the river has shifted its lower course every-25years, breached its levees once a year, and during the mid seventeenth century the breach frequency was as high as three times a year. The elevated channel bed has contributed to many epic disasters, making river control an arduous, costly job. The Yellow River floods were the most destructive geomorphological disasters in the environment history of China. Investigating the causes of the flood history of the Yellow River, will not only benefit today's river management, a harmonious human-river relationship, and our commitment to sustainability, but also increase our understanding of anthropogenic geomorphology and the dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human (CNH) Systems.
My thesis is guided by the theories of complex system and Lyell's principle of geology "the present is the key to the past". Theories and findings in hydraulics, channel morphodynamics, fluvial geomorphology and physical geography are applied, integrated with many conclusions contributed by historians. The analyses of historical records and computer modeling are combined to study the dynamical4000-year history of Yellow River floods. Three studies in the thesis use deductive, inductive and abductive reasoning, respectively. They span different times and spaces, employ qualitative or quantitative methods, and thus explore the causes of the history of Yellow River floods from different perspectives.
I first analyze the4000-year flood history of the lower Yellow River and the history of agricultural development in the middle river by investigating historical writings and quantitative time series data of environmental changes in the river basin. I find that flood dynamics are characterized by positive feedback loops, critical thresholds of natural processes, and abrupt transitions caused by socio-economic factors. Technological and organizational innovations were dominant driving forces of the flood history. The popularization of iron plows and embankment of the lower river in the4th century BC initiated a positive feedback loop on levee breaches. The strength of the feedback loop was enhanced by farming of coarse-sediment producing areas, steep hillslope cultivation, and a new river management paradigm, and finally pushed the flood frequency to its climax in the seventeenth century. The co-evolution of river dynamics and Chinese society is remarkable, especially farming and soil erosion in the middle river, and central authority and river management in the lower river.
I subsequently use the theory of channel morphology and four time-series reconstructed from historical records to establish a multiple linear regression model for the10-year averaged daily probability of levee breach on the lower Yellow River over1550-1855. It turns out that significant prediction of levee breach probability relies on four variables:total annual runoff, super-elevation, bankfull discharge, and levee construction works of the previous year. Uncertainty assessment shows the model efficiently predicts levee breach probability to an average determination coefficient of-0.7. Goodness of fit, and significance of fitting equations are most sensitive to changes in total outflow ratio. When the ratio is0.2-0.4, the model performs better. The regression model suggests two mechanisms of variations in breach frequency. Firstly, water depth was the dominant forcing for the decade-to-decade variations in breach frequency. Secondly, when technology was limited, embankment of a sediment-laden river created a positive feedback loop, forcing, though not significantly, the long-term change in breach frequency.
The third study develops a reduced-complexity model, enabling to combine the generation of daily water and sediment discharges, the yearly calculations of channel changes and the reach-averaged simulations of breach morphologic evolution. The combined model calculates numbers of breach-years and avulsions, breach widths and outflow ratios, avulsion thresholds (super-elevations) of the first200-km reach of the lower Yellow River in a period of time. The model is used to quantitatively reconstruct the flood history of the Yellow River and to explore the long-term influences of climate, land use and river control on the flood behavior of the Yellow River. Sensitivity analysis indicates that when sediment load is low, super-elevation is the sole factor that can significantly influence numbers of breach-years and avulsions. However, when sediment load becomes very high, long-term averaged total annual precipitation of the river basin, super-elevation, critical shear stress of bank materials in weak sections, and number of days between breach initiation and breach repair have to be combined so as to exert significant influences. The sediment-laden river has a shallow channel, and thus a small near-bank flow shear stress. Hence, numbers of breach-years and avulsions become sensitive to critical shear stress of bank materials. When human-induced basin erosion is intense, the sensitivity of sediment load to precipitation significantly increases. As a result, shallowness of channel becomes more sensitive to precipitation, which in turn increases the sensitivity of numbers of floods to precipitation. Using uncertainty analysis, I explore the most likely values of the dominant factor (or combination of factors) in8historical periods during850BC and1839AD; on these basis, a hypothetical history of the Yellow River floods is quantitatively constructed. The model has two limitations. First, parameterizing the process of super-elevation accumulation obscures the influence of anthropogenic erosion factor on flood frequency. Second, the process of headward erosion can not be included in the model; as a result, the feedback mechanism that avulsion will impact on flood frequency can not be fully represented.
All studies show that the flood history of the Yellow River is the outcome of interactions among multiple factors, such as the inherent characteristics of the Loess Plateau and lower channel, climate, land use, river control, and time. Anthropogenic factors played an increasingly influential role in the historical time.
本文以复杂系统科学的通用理论和“将今论古”的地质学方法论为指导,应用水力学、河床演变学、河流地貌学、自然地理学等自然科学的理论和研究成果,并广泛采纳历史地理学家和历史学家的研究资料,通过历史文献分析和计算机模型相结合的方法,研究黄河作为一个人地耦合系统,在近四千年中泛滥行为长期变化的动力过程与机制。三项时空跨度不同的具体研究分别采用演绎、归纳和溯因推理这三种推理方式,应用不同的定性和定量研究方法,从不同角度深入探索黄河泛滥史及其成因。
第一项研究通过历史文献和定量重建的时间序列数据,分析4000年来黄河下游泛滥史和中游的农业发展史,理解历史时期黄河泛滥频率阶跃变化、趋于加剧的过程和规律。黄河泛滥行为的驱动机制以正负反馈环、自然过程的阈值、社会经济因子的阶跃性变化为特征,具有复杂性。技术和制度变化是主导驱动力。公元前4世纪铁器普及、人为筑堤启动了一个和黄河决口过程密切相关的正反馈环。这个正反馈环的强度被多沙粗沙区农业开发、陡坡开垦,以及“束水攻沙”的治河策略不断加强,最终导致17世纪黄河泛滥极端高频发生。黄河泛滥格局和中国社会共同演化的特点非常显著,在中游表现为农业活动和土壤侵蚀的关系,在下游表现为中央集权和治河活动相互促进。
第二项研究应用黄河下游河床演变理论和四个主要根据历史文献重建的时间序列数据,构建了1550～1855年的黄河下游按年代平均的决口日概率变化的多元线形回归模型。年径流量、河床平滩流量、前一年的修堤堵口频率以及河道超高这四个变量是决口概率变化的解释变量。不确定性分析结果表明,回归模型的模拟效果较好,所有拟合方程的决定系数的均值约为0.7。模型的拟合度和显著性对全年总出流比的变化敏感。全年总出流比约为0.2～0.4时,拟合方程总体上取得较优的拟合度和显著性。回归模型体现了1550～1855年黄河决口频率变化的两个内在机制。其一,水深是决口的最主要驱动力；其二,决口频率、修堤堵口频率和河床超高相互促进的正反馈环对决口概率变化也有少量贡献。
第三项研究构建了一个复杂度降低型模型,将黄河下游上段200kmm的水沙日变化、河道长期变化和决口平均演化过程有效联合起来,计算不同历史时期的研究河段的决口年数、改道数目、决口规模、改道的超高阈值等变量,用于重建黄河泛滥史,探索气候变化、土地利用和治河活动对黄河泛滥行为的长期影响。敏感性分析结果显示对于少沙黄河,河道超高是唯一能够显著影响决口年数和改道年份的因子。对于多沙黄河,多年平均降水量、河道超高、薄弱段土体的起动切应力以及决口日和堵口日之间的间隔天数联合起来对(大)决口年数和改道数目产生显著影响。多沙黄河河槽宽浅,近岸水流切应力小,河流泛滥行为因此变得对河岸土体的起动切应力敏感。人为加速中游侵蚀情况下,黄河输沙率对降水量变化的敏感性提高,进而导致下游的河槽形态和泛滥行为对降水量变化的敏感性提高。通过对模型进行不确定性分析,推测了850BC～1839AD年间8个历史时期的主导因子的最可能取值(组合),并以假说形态定量重建了黄河泛滥史。模型有两大需要改进之处,其一是超高增长计算过程参数化引发人为侵蚀因子对泛滥行为影响小的假象；其二是小尺度的溯源侵蚀过程无法纳入模型,导致模型无法模拟决口演化影响泛滥行为的反馈机制。
这三项研究的结论可以相互印证,都揭示了黄河泛滥史是中游黄土高原和下游河道的各种固有特性和气候变化、土地利用、治河活动以及时间等诸多因子相互作用的结果,其中人类活动相关的因子起了加剧乃至主导的作用。
According to historical documents, the lower Yellow River has flooded>1000times in the historical times. In the last millennium, the river has shifted its lower course every-25years, breached its levees once a year, and during the mid seventeenth century the breach frequency was as high as three times a year. The elevated channel bed has contributed to many epic disasters, making river control an arduous, costly job. The Yellow River floods were the most destructive geomorphological disasters in the environment history of China. Investigating the causes of the flood history of the Yellow River, will not only benefit today's river management, a harmonious human-river relationship, and our commitment to sustainability, but also increase our understanding of anthropogenic geomorphology and the dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human (CNH) Systems.
My thesis is guided by the theories of complex system and Lyell's principle of geology "the present is the key to the past". Theories and findings in hydraulics, channel morphodynamics, fluvial geomorphology and physical geography are applied, integrated with many conclusions contributed by historians. The analyses of historical records and computer modeling are combined to study the dynamical4000-year history of Yellow River floods. Three studies in the thesis use deductive, inductive and abductive reasoning, respectively. They span different times and spaces, employ qualitative or quantitative methods, and thus explore the causes of the history of Yellow River floods from different perspectives.
I first analyze the4000-year flood history of the lower Yellow River and the history of agricultural development in the middle river by investigating historical writings and quantitative time series data of environmental changes in the river basin. I find that flood dynamics are characterized by positive feedback loops, critical thresholds of natural processes, and abrupt transitions caused by socio-economic factors. Technological and organizational innovations were dominant driving forces of the flood history. The popularization of iron plows and embankment of the lower river in the4th century BC initiated a positive feedback loop on levee breaches. The strength of the feedback loop was enhanced by farming of coarse-sediment producing areas, steep hillslope cultivation, and a new river management paradigm, and finally pushed the flood frequency to its climax in the seventeenth century. The co-evolution of river dynamics and Chinese society is remarkable, especially farming and soil erosion in the middle river, and central authority and river management in the lower river.
I subsequently use the theory of channel morphology and four time-series reconstructed from historical records to establish a multiple linear regression model for the10-year averaged daily probability of levee breach on the lower Yellow River over1550-1855. It turns out that significant prediction of levee breach probability relies on four variables:total annual runoff, super-elevation, bankfull discharge, and levee construction works of the previous year. Uncertainty assessment shows the model efficiently predicts levee breach probability to an average determination coefficient of-0.7. Goodness of fit, and significance of fitting equations are most sensitive to changes in total outflow ratio. When the ratio is0.2-0.4, the model performs better. The regression model suggests two mechanisms of variations in breach frequency. Firstly, water depth was the dominant forcing for the decade-to-decade variations in breach frequency. Secondly, when technology was limited, embankment of a sediment-laden river created a positive feedback loop, forcing, though not significantly, the long-term change in breach frequency.
The third study develops a reduced-complexity model, enabling to combine the generation of daily water and sediment discharges, the yearly calculations of channel changes and the reach-averaged simulations of breach morphologic evolution. The combined model calculates numbers of breach-years and avulsions, breach widths and outflow ratios, avulsion thresholds (super-elevations) of the first200-km reach of the lower Yellow River in a period of time. The model is used to quantitatively reconstruct the flood history of the Yellow River and to explore the long-term influences of climate, land use and river control on the flood behavior of the Yellow River. Sensitivity analysis indicates that when sediment load is low, super-elevation is the sole factor that can significantly influence numbers of breach-years and avulsions. However, when sediment load becomes very high, long-term averaged total annual precipitation of the river basin, super-elevation, critical shear stress of bank materials in weak sections, and number of days between breach initiation and breach repair have to be combined so as to exert significant influences. The sediment-laden river has a shallow channel, and thus a small near-bank flow shear stress. Hence, numbers of breach-years and avulsions become sensitive to critical shear stress of bank materials. When human-induced basin erosion is intense, the sensitivity of sediment load to precipitation significantly increases. As a result, shallowness of channel becomes more sensitive to precipitation, which in turn increases the sensitivity of numbers of floods to precipitation. Using uncertainty analysis, I explore the most likely values of the dominant factor (or combination of factors) in8historical periods during850BC and1839AD; on these basis, a hypothetical history of the Yellow River floods is quantitatively constructed. The model has two limitations. First, parameterizing the process of super-elevation accumulation obscures the influence of anthropogenic erosion factor on flood frequency. Second, the process of headward erosion can not be included in the model; as a result, the feedback mechanism that avulsion will impact on flood frequency can not be fully represented.
All studies show that the flood history of the Yellow River is the outcome of interactions among multiple factors, such as the inherent characteristics of the Loess Plateau and lower channel, climate, land use, river control, and time. Anthropogenic factors played an increasingly influential role in the historical time.
引文
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