会计信息质量对投资效率的影响研究
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摘要
近年来,我国学术界出现了两个似乎不相关的研究热点：一个是上市公司投资效率的研究,另一个是上市公司会计信息有用性研究。这两个主题是否关联,能否纳入到一个分析框架进行有效的研究,带着对这些问题的思索和研究,促成了论文的选题和成文。
论文将会计信息和投资效率纳入到一个统一的分析框架,研究会计信息质量对投资效率的作用机理和影响后果,一方面有望从会计信息视角探索优化投资行为和改进投资效率的路径和措施,另一方面以投资效率为平台,为会计信息的有用性提供新的经验证据。
论文主要采用规范和实证相结合的研究方法,运用规范研究方法解析会计信息质量对投资效率的作用机理,使用实证研究方法分别从会计信息的可靠性、及时性、持续性、稳健性及综合质量五个方面检验其对投资效率的影响后果。论文在文献综述、相关基础理论回顾、制度背景分析及现状描述的基础上建立理论分析框架和理论模型,从理论分析结果中引申出实证含义,然后利用我国上市公司的财务会计数据进行统计分析和检验,最后得出结论。具体的研究逻辑可依次划分为三大部分：
第一部分是研究起点,包括文献综述、相关基础理论回顾(理论起点)及制度背景、现状描述(现实起点)
第二部分是理论分析,又分两个阶段。第一阶段是阐述会计信息质量对投资效率影响的理论分析框架,按照三条逻辑路线组织：①高质量会计信息→缓解逆向选择问题→降低融资成本→减少投资不足→提高投资效率；②高质量会计信息→减少代理问题→规范项目选择→抑制投资过度(或减少投资不足)→提高投资效率；③高质量会计信息→增强预期和识别投资机会能力→抑制盲目投资→提高投资效率。第二阶段是第一阶段内容的提炼和数理化,建立了基于会计信息的投资效率模型,以更严谨的语言和更缜密的逻辑深入考察会计信息质量对投资效率的影响。
第三部分是实证分析,将会计信息质量分解成可靠性、持续性、稳健性、及时性四个维度,以第一部分的内容作为制度背景,以第二部分的理论分析结果作为实证假设,分别从可靠性、及时性、持续性、稳健性及综合质量五个方面,利用双因素固定效应面板模型,实证检验其对投资效率的影响。其中,投资效率的量化测度采用了两种类型的随机边界模型,会计信息可靠性、及时性、持续性、稳健性及综合质量分别采用不同的模型进行了量化衡量。
论文的研究在研究视角、研究方法、研究结论三个方面作出了创新性探索。在研究视角上,打破了现有规范研究仅从融资约束或代理问题的单一角度来考察会计信息对投资效率影响的研究路径,有机地将融资约束、代理问题及投资机会识别同时纳入到会计信息对投资效率作用机理的分析当中；突破了现有实证研究仅从会计信息质量的单一维度检验其对投资效率影响的研究范式,全面地从会计信息质量的不同维度(可靠性、及时性、持续性、稳健性及综合质量)分别实证检验了其对投资效率的影响。在研究方法上,克服了现有规范研究不严谨的局限,借鉴博弈论中的信号发送模型,通过资本市场的信息定价机制,构建了基于会计信息的投资效率模型。在研究结论上,提出了会计信息是通过影响融资成本、项目选择及投资机会识别三种方式来最终影响投资效率的观点；得出了会计信息是借助资本市场机制和公司治理机制间接发挥提高投资效率重大作用的结论；认为高质量的会计信息能够缓解融资约束、规范项目选择、增强投资机会识别能力,从而既能够减少融资约束企业的投资不足,也能够抑制代理问题严重和盲目投资企业的投资过度,提高会计信息质量是治理非效率投资行为的重要途径和措施；发现我国会计信息的可靠性、及时性、持续性、稳健性及综合质量对投资效率都有显著正的影响,会计信息具有经济后果；论文对会计信息质量的量化测度显示,我国会计信息的可靠性、及时性、持续性、稳健性及综合质量都在逐年改善。
论文的研究在理论上为会计信息质量与投资行为关系研究建立了一个分析框架,并进一步为会计信息对投资效率的作用机理构建了一个数理模型,为我国会计信息有用性提供了新的经验证据；在实践上为我国上市公司优化投资行为和提高投资效率提供一种切实可行的路径和措施,为监管部门监管企业投资行为提供理论指引,为政策制定部门制定和完善投资政策提供政策支持。
In recent years, there are two kinds of research hot spot which seem to be not related among Chinese scholars:one is the research to the investment efficiency of listed company; the other is to the usefulness of accounting information of listed company. Whether the two themes are linked and can be brought into a framework for effective research? The speculation and research to these problems contributed to the topic selected and written of this dissertation.
This dissertation will bring the accounting information and investment efficiency into a unified framework, and research the mechanism and consequences of accounting information quality to investment efficiency. On the one hand, this dissertation is expected to explore paths and measures of optimizing the investment behavior and improving investment efficiency from the angle of accounting information; on the other hand, this dissertation will provide new empirical evidence to the usefulness of accounting information based on the investment efficiency.
This dissertation mainly adopts two kinds of research method:normative and empirical research. It analysis the mechanism of action of accounting information quality to investment efficiency through normative research, and test its influence consequences from the reliability, timeliness, sustainability, robustness and comprehensive quality of accounting information through empirical research.The dissertation establishes theoretical analysis framework and model on the basis of review of literature and related theory, the analysis of system background, and the description of present situation, and prompts empirical meaning from theory analysis, and then conducts statistic analysis and test to the finance and accounting data of listed company in China, finally draws a conclusion. Specific research logic can be divided into three parts:
The first part is the starting point, which includes the literature review, the related theory review (theory starting point), system background analysis and present situation description (reality starting point).
The second part is the theoretical analysis, which is divided into two phases. The first phase is to explain theoretical analysis framework of the influence of accounting information quality to investment efficiency. In the first stage, it organizes in accordance with three logical paths:(1) the high quality accounting information^alleviating adverse selection problem→reducing the financing cost→decreasing investment shortage→improving investment efficiency;(2) the high quality accounting information→decreasing agency problem→criterion of project selection→inhibiting overinvestment (or reducing underinvestment)→improving investment efficiency;(3) the high quality accounting information→enhancing expectations and recognition ability of investment opportunity→restraining blind investment→improving investment efficiency.The second stage is the refining of the first stage, which constructs two investment efficiency model based on accounting information:investment efficiency model of information not containing accounting information and investment efficiency model of information containing accounting information, which thoroughly inspects the efficiency of accounting information quality to investment effect with more rigorous language and more meticulous logic.
The third part is the empirical analysis, which divides accounting information quality into reliability, sustainability, robustness, timeliness, with the content of the first part as system background, and the result of theoretical analysis of the second part as empirical hypothesis, respectively from the reliability, timeliness, sustainability, robustness and comprehensive quality, use double factors fixed effect panel data model, empirically test the effect of the efficiency of investment. Among them, the quantitative measure of investment efficiency uses two types of random boundary model, and adopts different models to measure the reliability, timeliness, sustainability, robustness and comprehensive quality of accounting information
The dissertation has made creative exploration in the research Angle, research methods and research conclusion. As to the research Angle, it breaks the existing normative research path, which investigates the effects of accounting information to investment efficiency only from single angle of financing constraints or agency problems, and divides financing constraints, agency problems and investment opportunity recognition into the analysis of the mechanism of accounting information on investment efficiency. It breaks the existing empirical study, which tests the effects of accounting information quality to investment efficiency only from its single dimension, instead, from different dimensions of accounting information quality (reliability, timeliness, sustainability, robustness and comprehensive quality). In the research method, it overcomes the limitations of existing normative research, which is not strict, uses the Signaling Modes in Game Theory, and constructs the investment efficiency model based on accounting information through information pricing mechanism of the capital market. About conclusion, the dissertation puts forward that the investment efficiency is affected by accounting information from three ways, which are financing cost, project selection and investment opportunity recognition, and believes that the accounting information indirectly plays important role in improving the investment efficiency through the capital market mechanism and governance mechanism; The dissertation finds that high quality of accounting information can relieve financing constraints, standardize the project selection, increase investment opportunity recognition ability, thus, it can not only reduce underinvestment, but also inhibit overinvestment. Therefore it is important way for management of inefficient investment to improve the quality of accounting information; The dissertation proclaims that the reliability, timeliness, sustainability, robustness and comprehensive quality of accounting information is significant positive correlation relationship with investment efficiency, and the accounting information has economic consequences; Through the empirical research, the dissertations shows that the reliability of accounting information, timeliness, sustainability, robustness and comprehensive quality of accounting information quality has improved year by year in China.
In theory, this dissertation builds up an analysis framework for the research of relationship of accounting information quality and investment behavior, and constructs a mathematical model for the mechanism of accounting information to investment efficiency, and provides new empirical evidence for accounting information usefulness of our country. In practice, this dissertation provides a feasible path and measure for listed companies in China to optimize investment behavior and improve investment efficiency, and provides a theoretical guidance for the supervision department to take charge of enterprises'investment behavior, and provides policy support for policy making department to draft and improve investment policy.
论文将会计信息和投资效率纳入到一个统一的分析框架,研究会计信息质量对投资效率的作用机理和影响后果,一方面有望从会计信息视角探索优化投资行为和改进投资效率的路径和措施,另一方面以投资效率为平台,为会计信息的有用性提供新的经验证据。
论文主要采用规范和实证相结合的研究方法,运用规范研究方法解析会计信息质量对投资效率的作用机理,使用实证研究方法分别从会计信息的可靠性、及时性、持续性、稳健性及综合质量五个方面检验其对投资效率的影响后果。论文在文献综述、相关基础理论回顾、制度背景分析及现状描述的基础上建立理论分析框架和理论模型,从理论分析结果中引申出实证含义,然后利用我国上市公司的财务会计数据进行统计分析和检验,最后得出结论。具体的研究逻辑可依次划分为三大部分：
第一部分是研究起点,包括文献综述、相关基础理论回顾(理论起点)及制度背景、现状描述(现实起点)
第二部分是理论分析,又分两个阶段。第一阶段是阐述会计信息质量对投资效率影响的理论分析框架,按照三条逻辑路线组织：①高质量会计信息→缓解逆向选择问题→降低融资成本→减少投资不足→提高投资效率；②高质量会计信息→减少代理问题→规范项目选择→抑制投资过度(或减少投资不足)→提高投资效率；③高质量会计信息→增强预期和识别投资机会能力→抑制盲目投资→提高投资效率。第二阶段是第一阶段内容的提炼和数理化,建立了基于会计信息的投资效率模型,以更严谨的语言和更缜密的逻辑深入考察会计信息质量对投资效率的影响。
第三部分是实证分析,将会计信息质量分解成可靠性、持续性、稳健性、及时性四个维度,以第一部分的内容作为制度背景,以第二部分的理论分析结果作为实证假设,分别从可靠性、及时性、持续性、稳健性及综合质量五个方面,利用双因素固定效应面板模型,实证检验其对投资效率的影响。其中,投资效率的量化测度采用了两种类型的随机边界模型,会计信息可靠性、及时性、持续性、稳健性及综合质量分别采用不同的模型进行了量化衡量。
论文的研究在研究视角、研究方法、研究结论三个方面作出了创新性探索。在研究视角上,打破了现有规范研究仅从融资约束或代理问题的单一角度来考察会计信息对投资效率影响的研究路径,有机地将融资约束、代理问题及投资机会识别同时纳入到会计信息对投资效率作用机理的分析当中；突破了现有实证研究仅从会计信息质量的单一维度检验其对投资效率影响的研究范式,全面地从会计信息质量的不同维度(可靠性、及时性、持续性、稳健性及综合质量)分别实证检验了其对投资效率的影响。在研究方法上,克服了现有规范研究不严谨的局限,借鉴博弈论中的信号发送模型,通过资本市场的信息定价机制,构建了基于会计信息的投资效率模型。在研究结论上,提出了会计信息是通过影响融资成本、项目选择及投资机会识别三种方式来最终影响投资效率的观点；得出了会计信息是借助资本市场机制和公司治理机制间接发挥提高投资效率重大作用的结论；认为高质量的会计信息能够缓解融资约束、规范项目选择、增强投资机会识别能力,从而既能够减少融资约束企业的投资不足,也能够抑制代理问题严重和盲目投资企业的投资过度,提高会计信息质量是治理非效率投资行为的重要途径和措施；发现我国会计信息的可靠性、及时性、持续性、稳健性及综合质量对投资效率都有显著正的影响,会计信息具有经济后果；论文对会计信息质量的量化测度显示,我国会计信息的可靠性、及时性、持续性、稳健性及综合质量都在逐年改善。
论文的研究在理论上为会计信息质量与投资行为关系研究建立了一个分析框架,并进一步为会计信息对投资效率的作用机理构建了一个数理模型,为我国会计信息有用性提供了新的经验证据；在实践上为我国上市公司优化投资行为和提高投资效率提供一种切实可行的路径和措施,为监管部门监管企业投资行为提供理论指引,为政策制定部门制定和完善投资政策提供政策支持。
In recent years, there are two kinds of research hot spot which seem to be not related among Chinese scholars:one is the research to the investment efficiency of listed company; the other is to the usefulness of accounting information of listed company. Whether the two themes are linked and can be brought into a framework for effective research? The speculation and research to these problems contributed to the topic selected and written of this dissertation.
This dissertation will bring the accounting information and investment efficiency into a unified framework, and research the mechanism and consequences of accounting information quality to investment efficiency. On the one hand, this dissertation is expected to explore paths and measures of optimizing the investment behavior and improving investment efficiency from the angle of accounting information; on the other hand, this dissertation will provide new empirical evidence to the usefulness of accounting information based on the investment efficiency.
This dissertation mainly adopts two kinds of research method:normative and empirical research. It analysis the mechanism of action of accounting information quality to investment efficiency through normative research, and test its influence consequences from the reliability, timeliness, sustainability, robustness and comprehensive quality of accounting information through empirical research.The dissertation establishes theoretical analysis framework and model on the basis of review of literature and related theory, the analysis of system background, and the description of present situation, and prompts empirical meaning from theory analysis, and then conducts statistic analysis and test to the finance and accounting data of listed company in China, finally draws a conclusion. Specific research logic can be divided into three parts:
The first part is the starting point, which includes the literature review, the related theory review (theory starting point), system background analysis and present situation description (reality starting point).
The second part is the theoretical analysis, which is divided into two phases. The first phase is to explain theoretical analysis framework of the influence of accounting information quality to investment efficiency. In the first stage, it organizes in accordance with three logical paths:(1) the high quality accounting information^alleviating adverse selection problem→reducing the financing cost→decreasing investment shortage→improving investment efficiency;(2) the high quality accounting information→decreasing agency problem→criterion of project selection→inhibiting overinvestment (or reducing underinvestment)→improving investment efficiency;(3) the high quality accounting information→enhancing expectations and recognition ability of investment opportunity→restraining blind investment→improving investment efficiency.The second stage is the refining of the first stage, which constructs two investment efficiency model based on accounting information:investment efficiency model of information not containing accounting information and investment efficiency model of information containing accounting information, which thoroughly inspects the efficiency of accounting information quality to investment effect with more rigorous language and more meticulous logic.
The third part is the empirical analysis, which divides accounting information quality into reliability, sustainability, robustness, timeliness, with the content of the first part as system background, and the result of theoretical analysis of the second part as empirical hypothesis, respectively from the reliability, timeliness, sustainability, robustness and comprehensive quality, use double factors fixed effect panel data model, empirically test the effect of the efficiency of investment. Among them, the quantitative measure of investment efficiency uses two types of random boundary model, and adopts different models to measure the reliability, timeliness, sustainability, robustness and comprehensive quality of accounting information
The dissertation has made creative exploration in the research Angle, research methods and research conclusion. As to the research Angle, it breaks the existing normative research path, which investigates the effects of accounting information to investment efficiency only from single angle of financing constraints or agency problems, and divides financing constraints, agency problems and investment opportunity recognition into the analysis of the mechanism of accounting information on investment efficiency. It breaks the existing empirical study, which tests the effects of accounting information quality to investment efficiency only from its single dimension, instead, from different dimensions of accounting information quality (reliability, timeliness, sustainability, robustness and comprehensive quality). In the research method, it overcomes the limitations of existing normative research, which is not strict, uses the Signaling Modes in Game Theory, and constructs the investment efficiency model based on accounting information through information pricing mechanism of the capital market. About conclusion, the dissertation puts forward that the investment efficiency is affected by accounting information from three ways, which are financing cost, project selection and investment opportunity recognition, and believes that the accounting information indirectly plays important role in improving the investment efficiency through the capital market mechanism and governance mechanism; The dissertation finds that high quality of accounting information can relieve financing constraints, standardize the project selection, increase investment opportunity recognition ability, thus, it can not only reduce underinvestment, but also inhibit overinvestment. Therefore it is important way for management of inefficient investment to improve the quality of accounting information; The dissertation proclaims that the reliability, timeliness, sustainability, robustness and comprehensive quality of accounting information is significant positive correlation relationship with investment efficiency, and the accounting information has economic consequences; Through the empirical research, the dissertations shows that the reliability of accounting information, timeliness, sustainability, robustness and comprehensive quality of accounting information quality has improved year by year in China.
In theory, this dissertation builds up an analysis framework for the research of relationship of accounting information quality and investment behavior, and constructs a mathematical model for the mechanism of accounting information to investment efficiency, and provides new empirical evidence for accounting information usefulness of our country. In practice, this dissertation provides a feasible path and measure for listed companies in China to optimize investment behavior and improve investment efficiency, and provides a theoretical guidance for the supervision department to take charge of enterprises'investment behavior, and provides policy support for policy making department to draft and improve investment policy.
引文
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②回归时要考虑异方差。
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①本章没有采用拓展的琼斯模型(陆建桥,1999：章永奎和刘峰,2002),即将无形资产和其他长期资产也作为解释变量加入回归方程,夏立军(2003)的研究表明,征对中国上市公司盈余管理的研究,拓展的没有修正的琼斯模型效果好。另外,本章也没有采用基本的琼斯模型。利用基本的琼斯模型和拓展的琼斯模型重新计量会计信息可靠性,发现对本的结论未产生实质性影响。
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②较多文献采用线下项目前应计盈余作为总应计盈余,夏立军(2003)的研究表明,征对中国上市公司盈余管理的研究,采用包括线下项目的应计比不包括的效果要好。
⑤本章也尝试包括其他业务收入,发现对计量的结果影响不大。
⑥本章也尝试按行业和年度(每一行业年的样本数不少于20个)进行最小二乘回归,发现对汁量的结果影响不大。
①DD模型将企业当期营运资本与前期、当前和下一期的经营现金流建立了关系,在实证研究中通过该模型按行业和年度进行横截面回归(每个行业年的样本量不能少于20个)的残差作为盈余质量的代理变量。
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②当期的残差不能包括在计算标准差的样本中,因为在当期残差对应的回归关系中包含t+1期的现金流量。
③参考薛爽(2001)的研究,将短期投资从流动资产中剔除。
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①本章也尝试采用统计学上的主成份分析法对KKJD、KKDD和KKWi进行提炼,根据因子载荷矩阵和方差贡献率计算出综合因了得分,发现综合因子得分与KKlnd指数对本章研究结论的影响不存在重大差异。
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⑥根据经典投资理论,反映投资机会的是边际Q而不是平均Q,但边际Q不可衡量,只能用平均Q代替边际QHayashi(1982)证明,只有在非常严格的条件下,边际Q才等于平均Q,这种代替上的偏差就是Tobin’s Q的衡量偏误。详细讨论参见Fazzari, et al. (1998)、Gomes (2001)等。
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②他们所说的市场价值包括四部分：租金(指企业现在或未来超过竞争性项目的投资回报,它们代表投资机会或一些垄断资源上的回报)、可分离净资产价值上不可确认增加部分、可分离净资产上可确认增加部分及净资产的历史成本。
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①本文主要是从微观层曲研究投资效率的影响因素。从宏观层面看,影响投资效率的主要因索有：国家的宏观经济调控政策、经济周期、行业基准利率等。
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①本章没有采用拓展的琼斯模型(陆建桥,1999：章永奎和刘峰,2002),即将无形资产和其他长期资产也作为解释变量加入回归方程,夏立军(2003)的研究表明,征对中国上市公司盈余管理的研究,拓展的没有修正的琼斯模型效果好。另外,本章也没有采用基本的琼斯模型。利用基本的琼斯模型和拓展的琼斯模型重新计量会计信息可靠性,发现对本的结论未产生实质性影响。
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②较多文献采用线下项目前应计盈余作为总应计盈余,夏立军(2003)的研究表明,征对中国上市公司盈余管理的研究,采用包括线下项目的应计比不包括的效果要好。
⑤本章也尝试包括其他业务收入,发现对计量的结果影响不大。
⑥本章也尝试按行业和年度(每一行业年的样本数不少于20个)进行最小二乘回归,发现对汁量的结果影响不大。
①DD模型将企业当期营运资本与前期、当前和下一期的经营现金流建立了关系,在实证研究中通过该模型按行业和年度进行横截面回归(每个行业年的样本量不能少于20个)的残差作为盈余质量的代理变量。
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②当期的残差不能包括在计算标准差的样本中,因为在当期残差对应的回归关系中包含t+1期的现金流量。
③参考薛爽(2001)的研究,将短期投资从流动资产中剔除。
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①本章也尝试采用统计学上的主成份分析法对KKJD、KKDD和KKWi进行提炼,根据因子载荷矩阵和方差贡献率计算出综合因了得分,发现综合因子得分与KKlnd指数对本章研究结论的影响不存在重大差异。
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⑥根据经典投资理论,反映投资机会的是边际Q而不是平均Q,但边际Q不可衡量,只能用平均Q代替边际QHayashi(1982)证明,只有在非常严格的条件下,边际Q才等于平均Q,这种代替上的偏差就是Tobin’s Q的衡量偏误。详细讨论参见Fazzari, et al. (1998)、Gomes (2001)等。
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⑥ Verdi (2006)也采用了这种衡量方法。
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