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稀土国际贸易公平价格机制研究
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摘要
稀土是宝贵的非可再生资源,被广泛应用于高精尖科技和军工领域。在稀土国际市场中,美国、日本以及欧盟等发达国家是稀土原材料产品的主要需求方。中国是最大的稀土供给方,稀土资源储量、产量和出口量均居世界第一,以36%的稀土储量供应了世界90%以上稀土消费。中国自1985年以来在扩大稀土产量和出口量,极大程度地占有国际市场份额的同时,却没有获得与其出口大国地位相匹配的在稀土国际市场上应有的价格话语权。而稀土产品的主要需求国对稀土产品二次加工或者再应用所获得的价值增值是稀土原材料产品价值的几十倍甚至几百倍。鉴于稀土的稀缺性、非可再生性和战略性,中国政府采取了一系列措施对稀土资源进行保护,如缩减出口配额、提高出口关税、征收资源税、加强环保督察等,使得稀土价格从2011年初开始有所上涨。但中国政府的行为引起了稀土需求大国的不满和指责,并正在就中国稀土出口限制问题向世界贸易组织提出申诉,稀土贸易争端正逐渐升级。此外,自2011年年初开始,稀土货商的囤货惜售以及部分游资的推动,导致稀土精矿以及氧化物的价格呈现级数增长,使得稀土贸易矛盾日益严重。近期稀土国际贸易价格不断上涨,到底是稀土的价值回归还是投机炒作,很有必要从经济学机理上进行分析。
     究竟稀土国际市场定价是否公平合理,原材料产品的价值是否被低估,国际价格是否能够足额补偿稀土供给方生产稀土耗费的所有成本,并使其获得合理利润,都是亟待研究的问题。本文在这样的大背景之下,以提炼创新的非再生资源国际贸易公平价格机制为基础,探索稀土国际贸易公平价格机制,建立稀土产品的内在价值公平补偿体系,测算稀土影子价格,判定稀土产品内在价值补偿的公平程度;分析国际交易主体间交易势力公平的影响因素,并采用随市场定价模型测定交易势力的公平程度,提出了促进稀土国际贸易价格形成于公平价格区间的政策建议。本文的核心观点为:稀土国际贸易交易平台制度公平基础上的内在价值补偿、交易势力公平(包括产业组织交易势力及国家政策交易势力的公平)是稀土国际贸易公平价格机制的主要决定因素。
     全文共分为七章,第一章为导论,在阐明研究背景及意义的基础上,对本文主要涉及的核心概念进行解释,并提出核心观点及研究框架,阐述研究方法,说明创新与不足等。并初步提出了国际交易势力的概念,定义其为国际市场交易主体通过产业因素以及制度因素影响国际市场价格的能力,主要由国际供给方和需求方的产业组织交易势力以及国家政策交易势力构成。
     第二章,相关文献述评。首先对价格机制理论的演变与发展进行文献总结,并对资源产品国际贸易价格机制的相关文献进行梳理,在此基础上对公平价格机制的研究进行总结,主要为包含产品价值补偿、交易势力公平两大主要构成要素的公平价格一般机制研究以及关于国际贸易公平价格机制的研究;其后,对稀土国际贸易公平价格及机制进行文献梳理;最后进行综合性文献述评。
     第三章,非再生资源产品国际贸易公平价格机制的建立。在论述交易平台制度公平、交易标的内在价值公平补偿,交易主体交易势力公平等理论支点的基础上,创新、提炼、构建非再生资源产品国际贸易公平价格机制,分析论证非再生资源公平价格机制的形成、运行、管理是由资源内在价值补偿公平机制及包含产业组织交易势力和国家政策交易势力的交易势力公平机制共同决定的经济机理。
     第四章,世界稀土生产、贸易及供需趋势。本部分从整体上介绍稀土的国际储量、生产,分国别分析主要国家稀土贸易消费以及产业状况,在此基础上对稀土国际产能、整体供求以及结构性供需情况进行分析,并对未来五年稀土的供给和需求情况进行预测。
     第五章,稀土国际贸易内在价值补偿公平机制研究。以稀土国际贸易产品的价值构成情况为基础,分析影响稀土产品国际贸易内在价值公平补偿的主要因素,包括稀土权益价值公平补偿因素、经营价值公平补偿因素、代际价值公平补偿因素、生态价值公平补偿因素等。最后以中国为例进行稀土国际贸易内在价值补偿公平测度。本部分在构建稀土国际贸易内在价值公平补偿体系的基础上,采取测算稀土产品影子价格并加成稀土外部性成本的方式获得中国内蒙古包钢稀土高科公司稀土精矿的实际价格,并与其销售价格进行差值比较,测度稀土精矿价格的公平程度。
     第六章,稀土国际贸易交易势力公平机制研究。本部分的研究以稀土国际贸易交易势力决定国际价格的作用路径为基础,分别研究产业组织交易势力及国家政策交易势力公平的影响因素及传导路径;以影响产业组织及国家政策交易势力公平的主要因素为变量,构建随市场定价模型,测定稀土国际贸易交易势力的公平度。第七章,结论与政策启示。对全文作一般性总结,从稀土内在价值补偿、稀土产业结构调整以及实施战略储备等方面提出政策建议。
     采用的主要研究方法为:理论归纳及演绎的方法,主要应用于第三章非再生资源产品国际贸易公平价格机制理论的建立中。实证研究的方法,在第五章稀土国际贸易内在价值补偿公平机制的研究中,采用数理经济学和计量经济学相结合的方法,构建稀土国际贸易内在价值补偿体系,并据此进行稀土产品的影子价格实证测算;在第六章稀土国际贸易交易势力公平机制的研究中,运用随市场定价模型对稀土国际贸易交易势力进行实证公平测度。比较研究的方法,主要应用于第六章稀土国际贸易政策交易势力公平机制的研究中,通过对主要稀土供给和需求国的稀土贸易、管理以及战略政策的比较分析,提炼影响国家政策交易势力公平的主要因素。
     本文的基本结论为:在国际贸易交易平台制度公平的基础上,稀土国际贸易公平价格是产品内在价值公平补偿以及国际贸易交易势力公平均衡的结果。完全竞争条件下,稀土国际贸易公平价格是马歇尔均衡的时点价格;现实的不完全竞争条件下,稀土国际贸易公平价格机制形成的价格落在产业组织交易势力以及国家政策交易势力作用下的公平反映稀土产品内在价值补偿情况的供给和需求的均衡波动区间之中。在稀土国际贸易内在价值补偿公平机制的研究中,构建稀土内在价值补偿体系,建立影子价格测定模型,以内蒙古包钢稀土高科的精矿产品为实证研究对象,确定精矿的公平补偿价格,并与其市场价格进行比较,得出包钢稀土的精矿产品内在价值未得到充分补偿的结论。在稀土国际贸易交易势力公平机制的研究中,将稀土国际贸易交易势力分解为产业组织交易势力及国际贸易政策交易势力两个部分进行影响因素分析及公平机制机理研究,得出稀土国际市场是供给方市场较强竞争性与需求方市场较高垄断性并存的供给方交易势力小于需求方交易势力的产品多元化的寡占型市场的结论。另一较为重要的结论为,对1988-2008年期间的12种中国的主要稀土产品按照轻稀土以及中重稀土的门类归类,测算消除了通货膨胀因素的稀土定基实际价格指数,并进行价格水平波动分析,得出12种中国主要稀土原材料产品价格几乎都较大幅度低于基期1988年的同类产品水平,中重稀土产品的价格水平下降幅度较为显著的结论。此外,建立随市场定价模型,分别利用2000-2011年的年度数据及2008.01-2011.12的月度数据进行计量实证分析,测定两个时段稀土国际贸易交易势力的变化情况,得出在稀土国际市场中,供需方的交易势力未达到公平均衡,需求方美国、欧盟以及韩国的交易势力大于供给方中国交易势力的结论。并且通过两时段的计量结果对比,得出韩国在中国实施稀土新政之后,交易势力于2008-2011年期间上升幅度较为显著的结论。
As a valuable non-renewable resource, Rare Earth is widely used in sophisticated technology and military fields. In the international rare earth market, the United States, Japan and the European Union are the major consumers of rare earth raw materials. As the largest rare earth supplier, China's rare earth reserves, output and export volume is ranked first in the world. China is supplying more than90%the world's rare earth consumption with its36%reserve. However, China has not attained its justified say matching it as a rare earth export power in the international market although China occupied a lion's share since China increased its output and export in1985. The value added out of rare earth's secondary processing or re-utilization by rare earth consumption countries increased several tens or even hundreds of times.
     Due to its strategic position, non-renewability and scarcity nature, the Chinese government has adopted a series of measures to protect rare earth resources, such as reducing export quotas, raising export tariffs, levying resource tax, and strengthening environmental protection inspection, which led to some price increase since early2011. These measures taken by Chinese government were criticized by major rare earth consumers. They are appealing to the WTO against the Chinese government's rare earth export restrictions. Rare earth export conflict is gradually towards the tendency of upgrading.
     In addition, dealers'hoarding rare earth products for rising profit speculation and hot money's involvement, leading to exponential price growing of rare earth concentrates and oxides since the beginning of2011. Did the recent price rise of rare earth resulted from the value return or profit speculation? It is uncertain.
     All the following problems need to be studied, including:is RE international market pricing is fair and reasonable? Is the value of RE raw materials undervalued? Is the current RE price enough to compensate the producers'cost and appropriate profit?
     This paper aim to study the fair pricing mechanism, establish an intrinsic and fair value compensation system and estimate the shadow price to determine the compensation fairness for the intrinsic rare earth value based on the innovative international trade fair pricing mechanism theory for non-renewable resources. This paper analyzes the factors affecting trade forces fairness between international RE buyers and sellers. Some policy suggestions are put forward to encourage RE international price fluctuates within the fair price range.
     The core opinion of this paper is:the major deciding factors for RE international trade fair pricing mechanism are intrinsic value compensation and trade forces fairness (including fairness of Industry trade forces and national policy transactions forces) based on the fairness of the RE international trading platform system.
     The paper can be divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. It explains some major concepts and research methods, put forward the core argument and outline based on elaborating the research background and significance. It also states the innovative points and limitations. International trade forces is defined as international trading subjects'ability affecting international price by means of industry factors and system factors, including trading forces for suppliers and consumers' industry organizations, as well as trading forces for national policies.
     The second chapter is the literature review. It summarizes the historical researches on fairness and equitable price, including the research status of the determining and measurement of fair and equitable price, equitable price mechanism in the international trade. Then it summarizes the literatures on pricing mechanism, including the description of researches on pricing mechanism of resource products in international trade by focusing on the two components of fair pricing mechanism, value compensation of resource products and trading forces fairness. The research progress of RE international pricing system and its empirical studies are summarized. A comprehensive literature is the conclusion.
     Chapter3is the establishment of international trade fair price system for non-renewable resources. It discusses trading platform's fairness system, intrinsic value's fair compensation for trading target, trade subjects'trade forces fairness. It then puts forward a fair price mechanism for non-renewable resources by analyzing and verifying the economic mechanism that the formation, operation and management of non-renewable resources'fair price mechanism is co-determined by the resource's intrinsic value fair compensation mechanism and trading forces fair mechanism composed by trade forces of industry organizations and those of national policy.
     Chapter4is the global tendencies for rare earth production, trade and supply and demand. It introduces rare earth's reserve and production from the overall perspective by analyzing major countries'rare earth trade, consumption and industry situations. Analysis on the global production capacity, overall and structural supply-demand is performed by predicting the supply-demand situation in the following five years.
     Chapter5is the study of rare earth intrinsic value compensation system fairness. Based on RE's value composition in the international market, it studies the major factors affecting the system fairness of rare earth intrinsic value compensation, including value fairness compensation factors on rare earth interests, business value, inter-generational value and ecological value. China is applied as the case to measure the intrinsic value compensation fairness for rare earth trade. The actual price of RE concentrate in Baotou Steel Rare Earth Hi-Tech Co., Ltd (REHT) is calculated by adding the shadow price and environment cost. The actual price and sale price are contrasted to determine the price fairness of RE concentrate based on the intrinsic value fairness compensation system.
     Chapter6is the fairness mechanism of rare earth transactions forces. It studies the factors affecting the trading forces fairness of industry organization and national policy as well as their conducting mechanism on the basis of the economic mechanism that RE trading forces decides its international price. A market pricing model is constructed to measure RE trade forces fairness by using factors affecting the trading forces fairness of industry organization and national policy as two variables.
     Chapter7is conclusions and policy implications. It makes a general summarization on the whole text. Policy recommendations are then put forward from the aspects of intrinsic value compensation, industrial structure adjustment and the implementation of the strategic reserve system.
     The major research methods are listed as follows:firstly, theoretically inductive and deductive methods, mainly used in discussing fair price system for non-renewable resource products.
     The second, empirical method is applied to construct RE intrinsic value compensation system by combining mathematical economics and econometrics to measure RE's shadow price in chapter5. Empirical method is also used in Chapter6to measure the trading forces fairness in RE international market. The third is Comparative approach. It is practiced in Chapter6to analyze the major factors affecting national policy's trading forces by contrasting RE trade, management and strategic policy of major suppliers and consumers.
     The following are some conclusions:a global fair RE price is the fair and balanced outcome of the intrinsic value fairness compensation as well as international trade forces based on the system fairness of international trade platform. The fair price for rare earth is the de facto price at Marshall Balance under the condition of perfect competition.
     The RE price formed out of international trade fairness pricing system demonstrates the equilibrium fluctuation range between the supply and demand of RE intrinsic value compensation under the actual condition of imperfect competition. The price of rare earth international trade fair pricing mechanism is a fair reflection of the intrinsic value of the compensation of rare earth products in the industrial organization of trading forces and the forces of national policy transactions under the action of supply and demand equilibrium trading range under the actual imperfect competition condition.
     Build rare earth intrinsic value of compensation system in the intrinsic value of the compensation fair mechanism of rare earth, the establishment of the shadow price determination model to concentrate products of Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth Hi-Tech is the object of empirical research to determine fair compensation for the price of the concentrate and its market price comparison, the Baotou Steel concentrates intrinsic value has not been fully compensate the conclusion.
     Fair mechanism of rare earth forces of international trade transactions, the decomposition of rare earth international trade transactions forces Factors Analysis and fair mechanism of trading forces and international trade policy trading forces in two parts for the industrial organization, obtained the international market of rare earth supply higher side strong market competition and demand, market monopoly coexistence of oligopolistic markets a wide range of conclusions.
     Another important conclusion of the1988-2008years during the12kinds of rare earth products in China, classified in accordance with the categories of light rare earth and heavy rare earth, is estimated to eliminate the inflation factor of rare earth real price index and price fluctuations in the level analysis, the12kinds of rare earth raw materials prices almost more substantial level of similar products below the base period1988, the more significant conclusions of the decline of the price level of the heavy rare earth products. In addition, the establishment of fair quantify rare earth international trade transactions forces with the price to the market model, come to the rare earth in the international market, the forces of supply and demand side of the transaction does not meet the fair and balanced demand-side trading forces greater than conclusion of the forces of supply-side trading.
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