重大风险情境下房地产消费者的购买决策和楼层选择行为研究
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摘要
在房地产市场中,商品房区别于所有其他大宗耐用品、零售品或服务产品的显著特征之一就是其具有完全的土地依附性,但是地震灾害却是对商品房这一特点的最大挑战。在汶川地震发生之前,人们极少考虑过地震等突发性风险事件对商品房的影响,而在这之后,人们的购房观念发生了很大变化,这对房地产企业的产品策略、营销策略等都提出了新的挑战。然而,纵观过去的研究,鲜有学者问津在地震等重大突发性风险事件发生后,感知风险等因素对人们的消费心理和决策选择行为的影响,尤其是具体到对房地产这一特定行业的消费行为影响的研究更为匮乏。
本研究以地震等突发性灾害下的房地产市场消费者为研究对象,构建了地震感知风险对消费者价值评估和再购与推荐意向影响的模型,发现地震感知风险对消费者购买决策过程中的重要方面,包括感知质量、感知价值和感知价格等都具有显著的直接影响,并通过感知价值的中介作用间接负向影响消费者的再购和推荐意向。该研究发现系统阐述了地震感知风险在个体层面产生的影响及其机理。其次,研究扩展这些结果,建立了地震感知风险与消费者信心之间影响关系的理论模型,发现地震感知风险对消费者信心的其中一个维度即经济发展信心产生了直接负向影响,对重建和房地产发展信心没有产生显著影响,对生活质量信心的负向影响是通过经济发展信心的中介作用间接实现的。同时,研究发现消费者信心各维度之间蕴含的相互关联,即重建和房地产发展信心对经济发展信心起显著正向影响,同时,经济发展信心对生活质量信心具有正向影响。最后,研究通过对房地产市场实际交易数据的分析,考察地震感知风险对房地产行业整体销售的影响和对个体层面更微观具体表现的消费者楼层选择行为的影响,发现地震感知风险使消费者对低层、多层的物业类型更加青睐,同时使消费者在地震后更偏好选购高层建筑的低楼层。
本研究具有重要的理论价值,具体包括：1.从影响房地产消费者决策行为的关键要素的角度出发,引入了地震感知风险这个重要变量,通过考察该变量对消费者的感知质量、感知价值、感知价格和再购和推荐意向的影响机制,并分析了后悔心理变量在模型中的影响,诠释了消费者面临重大风险情境时的决策心理和行为的变化,扩展了风险感知理论在消费者行为领域的研究范畴。2.进一步挖掘了影响消费者信心的因素,探讨消费者地震感知风险对消费者信心的影响及其各构成维度之间的内在逻辑,对消费者信心理论的发展进行了有益的补充。3.分析了房地产市场消费者在地震前后楼层选择的变化情况,并剖析了该特殊变化产生的背后机理、规律和过程,丰富了消费者行为和房地产定价理论方面的文献。同时,研究也具有重要的实践应用价值,为房地产企业和政府相关部门将来面对地震等类似的突发性风险情境时,快速洞察消费者行为的变化,并理解行为背后的机理提供了系统的理论依据和应对策略参考。
Determining the difference in the salient features between commercial housing and all other large durable goods, retail goods or service products is that housing completely relies on the land. However, earthquake is the biggest threat to this characteristic of housing. Before the occurrence of the Wenchuan earthquake, people rarely considered the impacts of emergency risky events such as earthquake on housing, whereas after that, people had changed greatly their concepts of buying houses. This has been a new challenge to the product strategies and marketing strategies of real estate companies. However, few scholars focused on the impacts of perceived risk and other factors on consumer's psychology and decision-making behaviors after high risky events such as earthquake in the past, particularly in the real estate market.
This study developed a model of the impacts of earthquake perceived risk on consumer's value evaluation and repurchase and recommendation intention in real estate market after emergency risky events such as earthquakes. It was found that earthquake perceived risk impacted the important aspects of consumer purchase decisions. Earthquake perceived risk had a significant direct impact on perceived quality, perceived value and perceived price as well as an indirect negative impact on consumer repurchase and recommendation intentions via the intermediary role of perceived value. The model systematically investigated the impacts and mechanism of earthquake perceived risk at the individual level. Secondly, the study extended these results and performed a theoretical model of the relationship between earthquake perceived risk and consumer confidence. It was found that earthquake perceived risk had a direct negative impact on one dimension of consumer confidence, namely, confidence of economic development, but did not produce significant effect on confidence of reconstruction and real estate development. It had an indirect negative effect on confidence of life quality via the intermediary role of confidence of economic development. The study revealed the linkages among the dimensions of consumer confidence as well. Confidence of reconstruction and economic development produced a significant positive effect on confidence of reconstruction and real estate development, and confidence of economic development played a significant effect on confidence of life quality positively. Finally, based on analysis of the actual transaction data in the real estate market, this study conducted research of the impacts of earthquake perceived risk on housing sales at the real estate industry level as well as the impacts on consumer floor choice behaviors at a more micro individual level. The results indicated that earthquake perceived risk made low-rise, multi-rise buildings more popular, as well as caused consumers preferred to buying lower floors in high-rise housing buildings after the earthquake.
Significant theoretical contributions of this study include:1. From the perspective of the key elements determining consumers decision making in real estate market, this study imported an important variable named earthquake perceived risk. By examining the mechanism of the impacts of this variable on consumer perceived quality, perceived value and repurchase and recommend intentions, this research analyzed the role of the psychological variable of regret, explained the changing decision-making psychological and behaviors when facing a high risky situation, which extended the implication of risk perception theory in the areas of consumer behavior.2. The study further identified the factors that influenced consumer confidence, and explored the impacts of earthquake perceived risk on consumer confidence as well as the internal logic among the dimensions of consumer confidence, which provided a useful supplement for consumer confidence theories.3. The study analyzed consumer's changing preference of floor choice after the earthquake, and discussed the mechanism, rules and processes of this special changing, which enrich literatures of consumer behavior and pricing theory in the field of real estate market. In addition, the study has important practical implications. It provides systematic theoretical basis and coping strategies for real estate companies and relevant government departments to get insight of the rapid changing consumer behaviors as well as to understand the mechanism when facing similar situations of emergency disasters such as earthquake in the future.
本研究以地震等突发性灾害下的房地产市场消费者为研究对象,构建了地震感知风险对消费者价值评估和再购与推荐意向影响的模型,发现地震感知风险对消费者购买决策过程中的重要方面,包括感知质量、感知价值和感知价格等都具有显著的直接影响,并通过感知价值的中介作用间接负向影响消费者的再购和推荐意向。该研究发现系统阐述了地震感知风险在个体层面产生的影响及其机理。其次,研究扩展这些结果,建立了地震感知风险与消费者信心之间影响关系的理论模型,发现地震感知风险对消费者信心的其中一个维度即经济发展信心产生了直接负向影响,对重建和房地产发展信心没有产生显著影响,对生活质量信心的负向影响是通过经济发展信心的中介作用间接实现的。同时,研究发现消费者信心各维度之间蕴含的相互关联,即重建和房地产发展信心对经济发展信心起显著正向影响,同时,经济发展信心对生活质量信心具有正向影响。最后,研究通过对房地产市场实际交易数据的分析,考察地震感知风险对房地产行业整体销售的影响和对个体层面更微观具体表现的消费者楼层选择行为的影响,发现地震感知风险使消费者对低层、多层的物业类型更加青睐,同时使消费者在地震后更偏好选购高层建筑的低楼层。
本研究具有重要的理论价值,具体包括：1.从影响房地产消费者决策行为的关键要素的角度出发,引入了地震感知风险这个重要变量,通过考察该变量对消费者的感知质量、感知价值、感知价格和再购和推荐意向的影响机制,并分析了后悔心理变量在模型中的影响,诠释了消费者面临重大风险情境时的决策心理和行为的变化,扩展了风险感知理论在消费者行为领域的研究范畴。2.进一步挖掘了影响消费者信心的因素,探讨消费者地震感知风险对消费者信心的影响及其各构成维度之间的内在逻辑,对消费者信心理论的发展进行了有益的补充。3.分析了房地产市场消费者在地震前后楼层选择的变化情况,并剖析了该特殊变化产生的背后机理、规律和过程,丰富了消费者行为和房地产定价理论方面的文献。同时,研究也具有重要的实践应用价值,为房地产企业和政府相关部门将来面对地震等类似的突发性风险情境时,快速洞察消费者行为的变化,并理解行为背后的机理提供了系统的理论依据和应对策略参考。
Determining the difference in the salient features between commercial housing and all other large durable goods, retail goods or service products is that housing completely relies on the land. However, earthquake is the biggest threat to this characteristic of housing. Before the occurrence of the Wenchuan earthquake, people rarely considered the impacts of emergency risky events such as earthquake on housing, whereas after that, people had changed greatly their concepts of buying houses. This has been a new challenge to the product strategies and marketing strategies of real estate companies. However, few scholars focused on the impacts of perceived risk and other factors on consumer's psychology and decision-making behaviors after high risky events such as earthquake in the past, particularly in the real estate market.
This study developed a model of the impacts of earthquake perceived risk on consumer's value evaluation and repurchase and recommendation intention in real estate market after emergency risky events such as earthquakes. It was found that earthquake perceived risk impacted the important aspects of consumer purchase decisions. Earthquake perceived risk had a significant direct impact on perceived quality, perceived value and perceived price as well as an indirect negative impact on consumer repurchase and recommendation intentions via the intermediary role of perceived value. The model systematically investigated the impacts and mechanism of earthquake perceived risk at the individual level. Secondly, the study extended these results and performed a theoretical model of the relationship between earthquake perceived risk and consumer confidence. It was found that earthquake perceived risk had a direct negative impact on one dimension of consumer confidence, namely, confidence of economic development, but did not produce significant effect on confidence of reconstruction and real estate development. It had an indirect negative effect on confidence of life quality via the intermediary role of confidence of economic development. The study revealed the linkages among the dimensions of consumer confidence as well. Confidence of reconstruction and economic development produced a significant positive effect on confidence of reconstruction and real estate development, and confidence of economic development played a significant effect on confidence of life quality positively. Finally, based on analysis of the actual transaction data in the real estate market, this study conducted research of the impacts of earthquake perceived risk on housing sales at the real estate industry level as well as the impacts on consumer floor choice behaviors at a more micro individual level. The results indicated that earthquake perceived risk made low-rise, multi-rise buildings more popular, as well as caused consumers preferred to buying lower floors in high-rise housing buildings after the earthquake.
Significant theoretical contributions of this study include:1. From the perspective of the key elements determining consumers decision making in real estate market, this study imported an important variable named earthquake perceived risk. By examining the mechanism of the impacts of this variable on consumer perceived quality, perceived value and repurchase and recommend intentions, this research analyzed the role of the psychological variable of regret, explained the changing decision-making psychological and behaviors when facing a high risky situation, which extended the implication of risk perception theory in the areas of consumer behavior.2. The study further identified the factors that influenced consumer confidence, and explored the impacts of earthquake perceived risk on consumer confidence as well as the internal logic among the dimensions of consumer confidence, which provided a useful supplement for consumer confidence theories.3. The study analyzed consumer's changing preference of floor choice after the earthquake, and discussed the mechanism, rules and processes of this special changing, which enrich literatures of consumer behavior and pricing theory in the field of real estate market. In addition, the study has important practical implications. It provides systematic theoretical basis and coping strategies for real estate companies and relevant government departments to get insight of the rapid changing consumer behaviors as well as to understand the mechanism when facing similar situations of emergency disasters such as earthquake in the future.
引文
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