信用评分理论与应用研究
|
摘要
市场的本质是交换,市场经济环境中一个最显著的特征就是交易双方对彼此承诺的信任,在交易双方进行博弈的过程中由于牵涉到交易成本、信息不对称等问题,因此很容易导致具有信息优势的一方通过违约获得不当得利从而引发道德风险,也容易造成处于信息劣势的一方的逆向选择行为。如果这种现象比较严重,市场秩序将被严重扰乱,最终结果是交易无法正常进行,经济发展更无从谈起。
现代市场经济条件下信用是契约履行的保障,市场经济的信用问题主要表现为市场经济的契约执行问题。市场信用关系主要是靠契约来维系,而契约的不完全性和不完善的信用约束机制是导致契约执行过程中违约风险的充分条件。要解决契约不完全的问题必须从契约关系内部和外部同时着手,一方面通过成本最小化的途径和方法准确掌握和度量对方的履约意愿和能力,另一方面设计开发能最大限度约束和控制信用风险的有效技术工具,建立符合市场经济发展要求的信用监督管理体系。
信用本质上表现为一种博弈均衡,信用行为策略的演化就是在内外部条件的冲击下均衡的打破和重建过程。通过加入惩罚成本、法律规章制度、发现监督机制等第三方约束条件可以证明通过加大失信主体的违约成本,增进各方利益的一致性,可以促使博弈中的各方最终选择守信策略。信用评分正是这样一种对于日常经济交往博弈过程中的第三方非强制性的“软”约束。
本文拟从契约、信用、博弈理论的演进路线和有机联系出发,深入分析三者的关系和作用机理,探寻影响契约履行和博弈策略的内外部因素,研究信用关系的一次性博弈过渡到重复博弈过程中外在约束条件的改变对博弈策略结果的影响,并证明信用评分作为一种第三方约束机制可以有效预测信用行为、加大违约失信成本、监督和防范信用风险从而在全社会建立起良好的信用关系。然后阐述信用评分的基本原理、度量因素与应用范围,并将其应用到政府监管领域,将评分对象拓展到个体工商户我国这一特定的经济活动主体；结合从“湖南省信用信息系统”中获取的个体工商户数据,尝试运用各种不同的方法建立一种有实际应用价值的“定制化”个体工商户信用评分模型,同时对不同结果的精确度及优缺点进行分析；最终设计制作出个体工商户信用评分卡,为我国工商行政监管部门更精确有效的预测特定个体工商户的信用风险、提早采取相关监管措施加以防范并建立一套完善的守信激励与失信惩戒机制提供决策参考依据。最后则对全文内容进行总结归纳,对今后的研究方向和发展趋势进行展望。
目前针对信用评分理论及方法尤其是信用评分对契约执行和博弈策略的作用机理及开发针对我国个体工商户信用评分模型方面的系统、全面的研究还不多见,因此本论文既是一项具有一定创新性的理论研究工作,又是一项现实服务性极强的研究。研究过程中有许多难题需要采取创新性的思维方法才能得以解决。以往的信用评分大多服务于信用交易中的授信方或征信中介机构衡量特定交易对象的资信状况及还款能力这一目标,侧重于个人经济交往中的信用行为特征变量,我国目前的信用评分模型的运用也主要集中在商业银行信用产品违约风险预测及征信中介机构接受客户委托对被征信人的信用状况进行评分,出于政府监管的目的对特定监管对象进行的信用评分研究不多,本论文将这方面进行一些有益的尝试。
在可获取的相应数据的基础上如何选择高效适用的评分方法是信用评分的关键,也是信用评分是否公正合理的最终评判标准和难点所在。本文尝试运用“湖南省信用信息系统”中所提供的某地区个体工商户注册登记与日常监管信息,在大量数据筛选预处理的基础上分别运用统计学与非统计学方法进行比较,结果发现统计学方法当中Logistic回归的稳定性与精确性、适用性等方面都较为理想,非统计学方法中人工智能的前沿方法SVM则更有优势,适合广泛应用。在确定了精确度最高的个体工商户信用评分模型后通过对检验样本的分析,其区分度达到令人满意的要求,表明模型具有较好的应用价值。最后得到了一个能有效地对个体工商户的信用状态进行区分的信用评分卡。该评分卡还可用于对个体工商户的日常监管,从而可以克服目前实践工作中监管标准不统一的问题,其研究成果对加强针对我国这一数量最大的经济活动主体的分类监管也有着重要意义。
The nature of the market is exchange.The most important character of market economy is trusting each other on the traders'promise.Because of the exchange cost and information asymmetry, it is easy to lead the party with information superiority to trigger moral hazard through default,simultaneously likely to cause the party with information inferior position to make adverse selection. In this instance, the market order will be seriously disrupted, the result is the termination of normal trade and economic development.
Credit is the guarantee of the contract fulfillment under modern market economy conditions, the credit problems of the market economy is the main issue of contract enforcement.The credit relationship mainly maintained by the contract,but incomplete contracts and imperfect credit constraint mechanisms in the implementation process of the contract are sufficient conditions for leading to default risk.
Through joining the third-party monitoring mechanism such as the penalty cost, laws and regulations, discovering skills it can be proved that they can encourage all parties of the game to keep the faithful strategy choice. Credit scoring is such a non-mandatory third-party "soft" constraint mechanism that can be used to the daily process of economic exchanges.
Since the90s of the20th century, with the accelerated process of domestic market economy, personal credit market develop very quickly, credit consumption and investment continued to expand, but the concomitant credit risks become more and more obvious. As our personal credit system's construction is in the initial stage, the collection and use of personal credit information, the establishment of monitoring mechanisms and the management skills of credit risks are still very poor, especially lacking a set of scientific and effective and accurate scoring method. This dissertation will do some work and attempt relying on the basis of current situation of our personal credit information database.
The path of this research follows this way. Firstly, review evolution process of the credit mechanism and economic theory.The next step analyzing contract, credit game theory evolution route and organic connection, thorough analysis triple relation and effect mechanism, looking for inner and external factors that can influence the game strategies. And then expounds the basic principle of credit scoring,metric factors and application scope, and apply to the government supervision areas,then discuss how to use the data from "Credit Information System of Hunan Province"to install credit scoring models of self-employed people..
Under actual database conditions, after further classification, accession, comparison, analysis, judgment and the process of preparation of such processing, collecting and screening a set of objective comprehensive and scientific index that can fully reflect credit factors such as the personal moral conduct, payment ability, performance status, rewards and punishment records.
After obtaining the data of self-employed people, this article try to use different methods to establish a "customized" credit scoring model that have practical application value. Meanwhile, analyse the precision of different models, compare their advantages and disadvantages; Through empirical analysis we want to find credit factors and correlativity for our business administrative supervision department to forecast credit risk of self-employed people. They can take earlier regulatory measures to prevent risk and establish a trustworthy mechanism of incentives and penalizing bad decision-making reference.
Finally, summarize the contents of this paper, indicate the direction of future research and development trend.
This paper attempts to use registration information data of self-employed people, after using statistics and non-statistical methods to establish credit scoring model, the results showes the Logistic regression has better stability and accuracy, among artificial intelligence methods SVM has advantage for wide application. Ultimately we determine the model that has highest precise degree and design the credit scoring card. Through the analysis of test samples, the distinction degree achieve a satisfactory level.It shows that the model has very strong application value.
This research aims at the largest number of economic activity principals, the results have great significance for supervised classification their credit activities and conditions.
现代市场经济条件下信用是契约履行的保障,市场经济的信用问题主要表现为市场经济的契约执行问题。市场信用关系主要是靠契约来维系,而契约的不完全性和不完善的信用约束机制是导致契约执行过程中违约风险的充分条件。要解决契约不完全的问题必须从契约关系内部和外部同时着手,一方面通过成本最小化的途径和方法准确掌握和度量对方的履约意愿和能力,另一方面设计开发能最大限度约束和控制信用风险的有效技术工具,建立符合市场经济发展要求的信用监督管理体系。
信用本质上表现为一种博弈均衡,信用行为策略的演化就是在内外部条件的冲击下均衡的打破和重建过程。通过加入惩罚成本、法律规章制度、发现监督机制等第三方约束条件可以证明通过加大失信主体的违约成本,增进各方利益的一致性,可以促使博弈中的各方最终选择守信策略。信用评分正是这样一种对于日常经济交往博弈过程中的第三方非强制性的“软”约束。
本文拟从契约、信用、博弈理论的演进路线和有机联系出发,深入分析三者的关系和作用机理,探寻影响契约履行和博弈策略的内外部因素,研究信用关系的一次性博弈过渡到重复博弈过程中外在约束条件的改变对博弈策略结果的影响,并证明信用评分作为一种第三方约束机制可以有效预测信用行为、加大违约失信成本、监督和防范信用风险从而在全社会建立起良好的信用关系。然后阐述信用评分的基本原理、度量因素与应用范围,并将其应用到政府监管领域,将评分对象拓展到个体工商户我国这一特定的经济活动主体；结合从“湖南省信用信息系统”中获取的个体工商户数据,尝试运用各种不同的方法建立一种有实际应用价值的“定制化”个体工商户信用评分模型,同时对不同结果的精确度及优缺点进行分析；最终设计制作出个体工商户信用评分卡,为我国工商行政监管部门更精确有效的预测特定个体工商户的信用风险、提早采取相关监管措施加以防范并建立一套完善的守信激励与失信惩戒机制提供决策参考依据。最后则对全文内容进行总结归纳,对今后的研究方向和发展趋势进行展望。
目前针对信用评分理论及方法尤其是信用评分对契约执行和博弈策略的作用机理及开发针对我国个体工商户信用评分模型方面的系统、全面的研究还不多见,因此本论文既是一项具有一定创新性的理论研究工作,又是一项现实服务性极强的研究。研究过程中有许多难题需要采取创新性的思维方法才能得以解决。以往的信用评分大多服务于信用交易中的授信方或征信中介机构衡量特定交易对象的资信状况及还款能力这一目标,侧重于个人经济交往中的信用行为特征变量,我国目前的信用评分模型的运用也主要集中在商业银行信用产品违约风险预测及征信中介机构接受客户委托对被征信人的信用状况进行评分,出于政府监管的目的对特定监管对象进行的信用评分研究不多,本论文将这方面进行一些有益的尝试。
在可获取的相应数据的基础上如何选择高效适用的评分方法是信用评分的关键,也是信用评分是否公正合理的最终评判标准和难点所在。本文尝试运用“湖南省信用信息系统”中所提供的某地区个体工商户注册登记与日常监管信息,在大量数据筛选预处理的基础上分别运用统计学与非统计学方法进行比较,结果发现统计学方法当中Logistic回归的稳定性与精确性、适用性等方面都较为理想,非统计学方法中人工智能的前沿方法SVM则更有优势,适合广泛应用。在确定了精确度最高的个体工商户信用评分模型后通过对检验样本的分析,其区分度达到令人满意的要求,表明模型具有较好的应用价值。最后得到了一个能有效地对个体工商户的信用状态进行区分的信用评分卡。该评分卡还可用于对个体工商户的日常监管,从而可以克服目前实践工作中监管标准不统一的问题,其研究成果对加强针对我国这一数量最大的经济活动主体的分类监管也有着重要意义。
The nature of the market is exchange.The most important character of market economy is trusting each other on the traders'promise.Because of the exchange cost and information asymmetry, it is easy to lead the party with information superiority to trigger moral hazard through default,simultaneously likely to cause the party with information inferior position to make adverse selection. In this instance, the market order will be seriously disrupted, the result is the termination of normal trade and economic development.
Credit is the guarantee of the contract fulfillment under modern market economy conditions, the credit problems of the market economy is the main issue of contract enforcement.The credit relationship mainly maintained by the contract,but incomplete contracts and imperfect credit constraint mechanisms in the implementation process of the contract are sufficient conditions for leading to default risk.
Through joining the third-party monitoring mechanism such as the penalty cost, laws and regulations, discovering skills it can be proved that they can encourage all parties of the game to keep the faithful strategy choice. Credit scoring is such a non-mandatory third-party "soft" constraint mechanism that can be used to the daily process of economic exchanges.
Since the90s of the20th century, with the accelerated process of domestic market economy, personal credit market develop very quickly, credit consumption and investment continued to expand, but the concomitant credit risks become more and more obvious. As our personal credit system's construction is in the initial stage, the collection and use of personal credit information, the establishment of monitoring mechanisms and the management skills of credit risks are still very poor, especially lacking a set of scientific and effective and accurate scoring method. This dissertation will do some work and attempt relying on the basis of current situation of our personal credit information database.
The path of this research follows this way. Firstly, review evolution process of the credit mechanism and economic theory.The next step analyzing contract, credit game theory evolution route and organic connection, thorough analysis triple relation and effect mechanism, looking for inner and external factors that can influence the game strategies. And then expounds the basic principle of credit scoring,metric factors and application scope, and apply to the government supervision areas,then discuss how to use the data from "Credit Information System of Hunan Province"to install credit scoring models of self-employed people..
Under actual database conditions, after further classification, accession, comparison, analysis, judgment and the process of preparation of such processing, collecting and screening a set of objective comprehensive and scientific index that can fully reflect credit factors such as the personal moral conduct, payment ability, performance status, rewards and punishment records.
After obtaining the data of self-employed people, this article try to use different methods to establish a "customized" credit scoring model that have practical application value. Meanwhile, analyse the precision of different models, compare their advantages and disadvantages; Through empirical analysis we want to find credit factors and correlativity for our business administrative supervision department to forecast credit risk of self-employed people. They can take earlier regulatory measures to prevent risk and establish a trustworthy mechanism of incentives and penalizing bad decision-making reference.
Finally, summarize the contents of this paper, indicate the direction of future research and development trend.
This paper attempts to use registration information data of self-employed people, after using statistics and non-statistical methods to establish credit scoring model, the results showes the Logistic regression has better stability and accuracy, among artificial intelligence methods SVM has advantage for wide application. Ultimately we determine the model that has highest precise degree and design the credit scoring card. Through the analysis of test samples, the distinction degree achieve a satisfactory level.It shows that the model has very strong application value.
This research aims at the largest number of economic activity principals, the results have great significance for supervised classification their credit activities and conditions.
引文
①引自《韦氏大辞典》官方主页http://www.m-w.com。
②引自《大英百科全书》卷v,台湾中华书局,1988年版。
③引自《牛津法律大辞典》,中国法律出版社,2003年版。
④引自《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》第一卷,经济科学出版社,1996年版。
⑤引自《现代汉语词典》,商务印书馆,2005年版。
⑥引自《辞海》,上海辞书出版社,1989年版。
⑦引自《中国大百科全书》经济学卷,中国大百科全书出版社,2009年版。
①西斯蒙第是西方经济发展史上的第一个强调以人为本的经济学家,主张政治经济学应该是研究人们福利的科学。他认为经济学不能只考虑少数人的致富问题,而应为全社会所有人的生活福利建立一套经济伦理规则。
①引自《资本论》第一卷,人民出版社,2004：104
[1]贝克尔.人类行为的经济分析.王业字,陈琪译.上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1995,9-22
[2]Coase, Ronald H. The Nature of the Firm. Economics.1937,4 (Nov):386-405
[3]亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究.郭大力,王亚南译.北京：商务印书馆,2002,314
[4]西斯蒙第.政治经济学新原理.何钦译.北京：商务印书馆,1977,20-147
[5]吴承明.经济史：历史观与方法论.上海：上海财经大学出版社,2006,219
[6]欧阳润平.义利共生论—中国企业伦理研究.长沙：湖南人民出版社,2000,25
[7]李新庚.信用论纲.北京：中国方正出版社,2004,34
[8]王淑芹.信用伦理研究.北京：中央编译出版社,2005,20-52
[9]孙磊.信用体系演化的经济学分析：[西南财经大学博士学位论文].四川：西南财经大学,万方中国学位论文全文数据库,2008,24-30
[10]晏艳阳,刘弢.经济学层面上的道德、信任、信用与征信.财经理论与实践,2006,(3)：15-21
[11]Hart,.O. Firms, Contracts, and Financial Structure. Oxford:Clarendon Press,1996
[12]宋羽.建立信用制度完善约束机制.北京市财贸管理干部学院学报,2001,(3)：21-24
[13]李纪建.经济转轨中的社会信用秩序：[西安交通大学硕士学位论文]陕西：西安交通大学,万方中国学位论文全文数据库,2001,30
[14]魏玮.重构渐进转轨中的中国信用制度：[西北大学博士学位论文].陕西：西北大学,万方中国学位论文全文数据库,2002,23
[15]马本江.市场交易中信用机制理论研究与设计：[中山大学博士后学位论文].广东：中山大学,万方中国学位论文全文数据库,2007,45-71
[16]刘益.信用、契约与文明：[西南财经大学博士学位论文].成都：西南财经大学,万方中国学位论文全文数据库,2008,48-57
[17]J. R. Commons, Institutional Economics. Madison:University of Wisconsin Press,1961,69
[18]张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学.上海：上海人民出版社,1996
[19]张维迎.产权、政府与信誉.北京：三联书店,2001
[20]张维迎,柯荣住.信任及其解释：来自中国的跨省调查分析.经济研究, 2002,(10)：59-70
[21]张维迎.法律制度的信誉基础.经济研究,2002,(1)：3-13
[22]科斯.企业、市场与法律.盛洪,陈郁译.上海：上海三联书店,1990
[23]麦克尼尔.新社会契约论.雷喜宁、潘勤译,北京：中国政法大学出版社,1994,115
[24]Williaanson, Oliver E. The Economic Institutions of Capitalism, New York: The Free Press,1985
[25]Simon, H. A.A behavioral model of rational choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1955,69(1):343
[26]Macneil, I. R. The New Social Contract:an Inquiry into Modern Contractual Relations, London:Yale University Press,1980
[27]Hart, O. and J. Moore. Incomplete Contracts and Renegotiation, Econometrics, 1988,56:755-86.
[28]Williamson, O. E. Transaction Cost Economics:the Governance of Contractual Relations, Journal of Law and Economics,1979,2:233-261.
[29]Klein, B. Transaction Cost Determinants of'Unfair'Contractual Arrangements, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings,1980:70-89.
[30]Shavell, S. Damage Measures for Breach of Contract, Bell Journal of Economics,1980,11:466-490.
[31]Dye, R. Costly Contract Contingencies, International Economic Review 1985,26:233-250.
[32]Grossman, S. and Oliver, Hart. The Costs and Benefits of Ownership:a Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration, Journal of Political Economy 1986, 94:691-719.
[33]Hart, O. and J, Moore. Property Rights and Nature of the Firm, Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(6):1119-1158.
[34]Nash,J. Equilibrium Points in N-Person Games. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,1950,36:48-49
[35]Nash,J. Non-Cooperative Games,Annals of Mathematics,1951,54:286-295
[36]Tucker, A W. On Jargon:The Prisoner's Dilemma. Stanford:Stanford University,1980,(1):101
[37]Selten, R. Spieltheoretische Behandlung eines Oligopolmodells mit Nachfragentragheit, Zeitschriftfur die gesamte Staatswissenschaft,1965,12: 201-324
[38]Harsanyi, J. C. Games with Incomplete Information Played by Bayesian Players,Management Science 1967-1968, (14):159-182,320-334,486-502
[39]Kreps, D and Wilson, R. Reputation and Imperfect Information. Journal of Economic Theory,1982,27:253-279
[40]Arrow, Kenneth J. Essays in the Theory of Risk-Bearing. North-Holland Pub. Co. Amsterdam,1971
[41]Mirrlees, J. Notes on Welfare Economics. Information and Uncertainty, in Essays on Economic Behavior under Uncertainty, edited by Michael Baleh,Daniel McFadden and Shif-yen Wu. Amsterdam:North-Holland,1974
[42]Mirrlees, J. The Theory of Moral Hazard and Unobserved Behaviour,. Part I.Mimeo.Nuffield College,Oxford,1975
[43]Mirclees, J. The Optimal Structures of Incentives and Authority within an Organization. Bell Journal of Economics,1976,(7):105-131
[44]Holmstrom, B. Moral Hazard and Observability. Bell Journal of Economies, 1979,(10):74-91
[45]Akerlof, George A. The Market for a'Lemons':Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1970,84(8):488-500
[46]Spence Michael A. Job Market Signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1973,77:355-379
[47]Rothschild, M. and Stiglitz, J. Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets. Quarterly Journal of Economies,1976,(2):629-649
[48]青木昌彦.比较制度分析.周黎安译.上海：上海远东出版社,2002：62-64
[49]Luce, Duncan R. and Raiffa, Howard.Games and Decisions. New York:John Wiley,1957
[50]Shubik, Martin.Edgeworth Market Games, Contributions to the Theory of Games,1959,IV:267-278
[51]Friedman, J.A Noncooperative Equilibrium for Supergames, Review of Economic Studies,1971,38:1-12.
[52]Friedman, J. Trigger Strategy Equilibria in Finite Horizon, Supergames, Mimeo,1985
[53]Neyman, A.Bounded Complexity Justifies Cooperation in the Finitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma. Economics Letters,1985,19:227-229.
[54]Fudenberg, D. and Maskin, E.The Folk Theorem in Repeated Games with Discounting and Incomplete Information. Econometrica,1986,54:533-54
[55]Huberman,Bemardo,A. and Glance Natalie S.Beliefs and Cooperation. Presented at the "Chaos and Society" International Conference,1994,June.
[56]Bhaskar,V. and Van Damme. The competitive effects of price-floors. The Journal of Industrial Economics,1997,45(3):329-340
[57]Kreps, D and Wilson, R., Reputation and Imperfect Theory, Journal of Economic,1982,27:253-279.
[58]Fisher, A. The Use of Multiple Measurements in Taxonomic Problems, Ann.Eugenics,1936,7:179-188
[59]Durand, D. Risk Elements in Consumer Installment Financing. National Bureau of Economic Research, New York,1941
[60]Weingartner, M. Concepts and Utilization of Credit Scoring Techniques, Banking,1966,58:51-53
[61]Smalley, O, A. and Sturdivant, F, D. The Credit Merchants:A History of Spiegel Inc, Carbondale:Southern Illinois University Press,1973
[62]Thomas L, C. A Survey of Credit and Behavioural Scoring:Forecasting Financial Risk of Lending to Consumers, International Journal of Forecasting, 2000,(16),2:149-172
[63]Johnson, W. Legal, Social and Economic Issues Implementing Scoring in the U.S, Credit Scoring and Credit Control, Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1992,19-32
[64]Wonderlic, E, F. An Analysis of Factors in Granting Credit, Indiana:Indiana University Press,1952,163-176
[65]Myers, J. H. and Forgy, E. W. The Development of Numerical Credit Evaluation Systems. Journal of the American Statistical Associaton,1963,58: 799-806
[66]Nevin, J, R. and Churchill, G, A. The Equal Credit Opportunity Act:An Evalution, Marketing,1979,42:95-104
[67]Capon, N. Credit Scoring Systems:A Critical Analysis Maketing, 1982,46:82-91
[68]钟楚男.个人信用征信制度.北京：中国金融出版社,2002,3-4
[69]龙西安.个人信用优先假说—关于个人信用特性及其作用地位的分析.财经理论与实践,2003,(9)：19-23
[70]王淑芹.论法律信用与道德信用的特性.道德与文明,2003(5)：54-57
[71]孙智英,黄茂兴.信用资源构成、形成特征及价值分析.福建论坛人文社会科学版,2006,(5)：133-135
[72]林钧跃.企业与消费者信用管理.上海：上海财经大学出版社,2005,382-383
[73]林钧跃.消费者信用管理.北京：中国方正出版社,2002,292-300
[74]李孟来.我国个人信用评分模型的应用探讨.金融管理与研究,2009,(2)：18-26
[75]谷国良,赵锦华,钟嘉明.个人信用评分.深圳：海天出版社,2005,15-17
[76]徐宪平,社会信用体系知识读本,长沙：湖南人民出版社,2006,93-95
[77]晏艳阳,刘弢.个人信用评分研究及其发展.湘潮,2008,(6)：1-3
[78]魏海坤.神经网络结构设计的理论与方法.北京：国防工业出版社,2005
[79]Altman, E. I. Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance,1968,23(4):589-609
[80]Eisenbeis, R. A. Pitfalls in the Application of Discriminant Analysis in Business. Finance, and Economics. The Journal of Finance,1977,32:875-900
[81]Eric Rosenberg, Alan Gleit. Quantitative Methods in Credit Management:A Survey. Operations Research,1994,42, (4):589-613
[82]Orgler, Y. E. A Credit Scoring Model for Commercial Loans. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,1970,(11):435-445
[83]Fitzpatrick, D. B. An Analysis of Bank Credit Card Profit. Journal of Bank Research,1976, (7):199-205
[84]Lucas, A. Updating Scorecards:Removing the Mystique. In Credit Scoring and Credit Control, ed. L. C. Thomas, J. N. Crook, and D. B. Edelman, Oxford: Clarendon Press,1992,180-197
[85]Henley, W. E. Statistical aspects of credit scoring. Unpublished PhD thesis,The Open University, Milton Keynes,UK,1995
[86]Reichert, A. K., Cho, C-C., and Wagner, G. M. An Examnination of the Conceptual Issues Involved in Development Credit-Scoring Models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,1983,1:101-114
[87]Wiginton, J. C., A Note on the Comparison of Logit and Discriminant Models of Consumer Credit Behavior. Journal of the Financial Quantitative Annals,1980,(15):757-770
[88]Srinivasan V. and Kim, Y.H. Credit Granting:A Comparative Analysis of Classification Procedures. Journal of Finance,1987,42:665-683
[89]Leonard, K. J. A Fraud Alert Model for Credit Cards During the Authorization Process. Journal of Mathematics Applied Business Industry,1993,(5):57-62
[90]Henley. W.E and Hand, D. J. Construction of a K-nearest neighbour Credit-scoring System. IMA Journal of Madrematics Applied in Business and Industry,1997,8(4):305-321
[91]Makowski, P. Credit Scoring Branches Out. The Credit World,1985,75:30-37
[92]Coffman, J.Y. The Proper Role of Tree Analysis in Forecasting the Risk Behavior of Borrowers. MdS Reports, Management Decision System, Atlanta,1986,3-9
[93]Carter, C and Catlett, J. Assessing Credit Card Applications Using Machine Learning, IEEE Expert Vol. Fall,1987,71-79
[94]Mehta, D. The Information of Credit Policy Models. Management Science, 1988,(15):30-50
[95]Boyle, M., Crook, J. N., Hamilton, R.,and Thomas, L. C. Methods for Credit Scoring Applied to Slow Payers. Credit Scoring and Credit Control by Thomas, L. C., Crook, J. N.,and Edelman, D. B.,eds., Oxford University Press,Oxford,1992,75-90
[96]Arnminger, G., Enache. D. and Bonne, T. Analyzing Credit Risk Data:a Comparison of Logistic Discrimination, Classification Tree Analysis and Feed-forward Networks, Computational Statistics.1997,(12):293-310
[97]张维,李玉霜,王春峰.递归分类树在信用风险分析中的应用.系统工程理论与实践,2000,(03)：50-62
[98]周根贵.数据仓储与数据挖掘.杭州：浙江大学出版社,2004
[99]Bounsaythip, C. and Rinta-Runsala,E. Overview of Data Mining for Customer Behavior Modeling,Information Technology.2001,(1):1-59
[100]宁克俭.数据库技术的发展述评.电讯技术,2003,(03)：17-19
[101]肖攸安,李腊元.数据挖掘技术初探.交通与计算机2002,(1)：25-30
[102]Odom, M.D. and Sharda, R. A Neural Network Model for Bankruptcy Prediction. Proceedings of the IEEE International Joint Conference On Neural Networks,1990,163-168
[103]K, Fukunaga. Introduction to Statistical Pattern Recognition, Academic Press,1990
[104]Desai, V. S.,Crook, J. N. and Overstreet, G. A. A Comparison of Neural Networks and Linear Scoring Models in the Credit Environment. European Journal of Operational Research,1996,95:24-37
[105]Desai, V. S., Convay, D. G., Crook, J. N. and Overstreet, G. A. Credit Scoring Models in the Credit Union Environment Using Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms. Journal of Mathematics Applied in Business Industry, 1997,(8):323-346
[106]West, D. Neural Network Credit Scoring Models. Computers and Operational Research,2000,(27):1131-1152
[107]Mangasarian O. L. Mathematical Programming in Neural Networks. ORSA Journal on Computing,1993,(5)349-360
[108]Altman E, Marco G, Varetto F. Corporate Distress diagnosis Comparisons Using linear Discriminant analysis and neural networks..Banking and Finance,1994,(18):505-529
[109]Coats, P., Fant, K., Recognizing Financial Distress Patterns Using A Neural Network Tool Financial Management,1993,22(3):142-155.
[110]Tam K Y, Kiang M, Managerial Applications of Neural Networks:The Case of Bank Failure Predictions. Management Sciences,1992,38(1):926-947
[111]Altman, Predicting Financial Distress of Companies:Revisiting the Z-Score and ZETA Models. SSRN Working Paper Series,2000
[112]Hand, D. J and Henley, W. E. Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring:A Review. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 1997,160(3):523-541
[113]石庆焱,秦宛顺.个人信用评分模型及其应用.北京：中国方正出版社,2006,100-103
②引自《大英百科全书》卷v,台湾中华书局,1988年版。
③引自《牛津法律大辞典》,中国法律出版社,2003年版。
④引自《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》第一卷,经济科学出版社,1996年版。
⑤引自《现代汉语词典》,商务印书馆,2005年版。
⑥引自《辞海》,上海辞书出版社,1989年版。
⑦引自《中国大百科全书》经济学卷,中国大百科全书出版社,2009年版。
①西斯蒙第是西方经济发展史上的第一个强调以人为本的经济学家,主张政治经济学应该是研究人们福利的科学。他认为经济学不能只考虑少数人的致富问题,而应为全社会所有人的生活福利建立一套经济伦理规则。
①引自《资本论》第一卷,人民出版社,2004：104
[1]贝克尔.人类行为的经济分析.王业字,陈琪译.上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1995,9-22
[2]Coase, Ronald H. The Nature of the Firm. Economics.1937,4 (Nov):386-405
[3]亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究.郭大力,王亚南译.北京：商务印书馆,2002,314
[4]西斯蒙第.政治经济学新原理.何钦译.北京：商务印书馆,1977,20-147
[5]吴承明.经济史：历史观与方法论.上海：上海财经大学出版社,2006,219
[6]欧阳润平.义利共生论—中国企业伦理研究.长沙：湖南人民出版社,2000,25
[7]李新庚.信用论纲.北京：中国方正出版社,2004,34
[8]王淑芹.信用伦理研究.北京：中央编译出版社,2005,20-52
[9]孙磊.信用体系演化的经济学分析：[西南财经大学博士学位论文].四川：西南财经大学,万方中国学位论文全文数据库,2008,24-30
[10]晏艳阳,刘弢.经济学层面上的道德、信任、信用与征信.财经理论与实践,2006,(3)：15-21
[11]Hart,.O. Firms, Contracts, and Financial Structure. Oxford:Clarendon Press,1996
[12]宋羽.建立信用制度完善约束机制.北京市财贸管理干部学院学报,2001,(3)：21-24
[13]李纪建.经济转轨中的社会信用秩序：[西安交通大学硕士学位论文]陕西：西安交通大学,万方中国学位论文全文数据库,2001,30
[14]魏玮.重构渐进转轨中的中国信用制度：[西北大学博士学位论文].陕西：西北大学,万方中国学位论文全文数据库,2002,23
[15]马本江.市场交易中信用机制理论研究与设计：[中山大学博士后学位论文].广东：中山大学,万方中国学位论文全文数据库,2007,45-71
[16]刘益.信用、契约与文明：[西南财经大学博士学位论文].成都：西南财经大学,万方中国学位论文全文数据库,2008,48-57
[17]J. R. Commons, Institutional Economics. Madison:University of Wisconsin Press,1961,69
[18]张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学.上海：上海人民出版社,1996
[19]张维迎.产权、政府与信誉.北京：三联书店,2001
[20]张维迎,柯荣住.信任及其解释：来自中国的跨省调查分析.经济研究, 2002,(10)：59-70
[21]张维迎.法律制度的信誉基础.经济研究,2002,(1)：3-13
[22]科斯.企业、市场与法律.盛洪,陈郁译.上海：上海三联书店,1990
[23]麦克尼尔.新社会契约论.雷喜宁、潘勤译,北京：中国政法大学出版社,1994,115
[24]Williaanson, Oliver E. The Economic Institutions of Capitalism, New York: The Free Press,1985
[25]Simon, H. A.A behavioral model of rational choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1955,69(1):343
[26]Macneil, I. R. The New Social Contract:an Inquiry into Modern Contractual Relations, London:Yale University Press,1980
[27]Hart, O. and J. Moore. Incomplete Contracts and Renegotiation, Econometrics, 1988,56:755-86.
[28]Williamson, O. E. Transaction Cost Economics:the Governance of Contractual Relations, Journal of Law and Economics,1979,2:233-261.
[29]Klein, B. Transaction Cost Determinants of'Unfair'Contractual Arrangements, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings,1980:70-89.
[30]Shavell, S. Damage Measures for Breach of Contract, Bell Journal of Economics,1980,11:466-490.
[31]Dye, R. Costly Contract Contingencies, International Economic Review 1985,26:233-250.
[32]Grossman, S. and Oliver, Hart. The Costs and Benefits of Ownership:a Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration, Journal of Political Economy 1986, 94:691-719.
[33]Hart, O. and J, Moore. Property Rights and Nature of the Firm, Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(6):1119-1158.
[34]Nash,J. Equilibrium Points in N-Person Games. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,1950,36:48-49
[35]Nash,J. Non-Cooperative Games,Annals of Mathematics,1951,54:286-295
[36]Tucker, A W. On Jargon:The Prisoner's Dilemma. Stanford:Stanford University,1980,(1):101
[37]Selten, R. Spieltheoretische Behandlung eines Oligopolmodells mit Nachfragentragheit, Zeitschriftfur die gesamte Staatswissenschaft,1965,12: 201-324
[38]Harsanyi, J. C. Games with Incomplete Information Played by Bayesian Players,Management Science 1967-1968, (14):159-182,320-334,486-502
[39]Kreps, D and Wilson, R. Reputation and Imperfect Information. Journal of Economic Theory,1982,27:253-279
[40]Arrow, Kenneth J. Essays in the Theory of Risk-Bearing. North-Holland Pub. Co. Amsterdam,1971
[41]Mirrlees, J. Notes on Welfare Economics. Information and Uncertainty, in Essays on Economic Behavior under Uncertainty, edited by Michael Baleh,Daniel McFadden and Shif-yen Wu. Amsterdam:North-Holland,1974
[42]Mirrlees, J. The Theory of Moral Hazard and Unobserved Behaviour,. Part I.Mimeo.Nuffield College,Oxford,1975
[43]Mirclees, J. The Optimal Structures of Incentives and Authority within an Organization. Bell Journal of Economics,1976,(7):105-131
[44]Holmstrom, B. Moral Hazard and Observability. Bell Journal of Economies, 1979,(10):74-91
[45]Akerlof, George A. The Market for a'Lemons':Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1970,84(8):488-500
[46]Spence Michael A. Job Market Signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1973,77:355-379
[47]Rothschild, M. and Stiglitz, J. Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets. Quarterly Journal of Economies,1976,(2):629-649
[48]青木昌彦.比较制度分析.周黎安译.上海：上海远东出版社,2002：62-64
[49]Luce, Duncan R. and Raiffa, Howard.Games and Decisions. New York:John Wiley,1957
[50]Shubik, Martin.Edgeworth Market Games, Contributions to the Theory of Games,1959,IV:267-278
[51]Friedman, J.A Noncooperative Equilibrium for Supergames, Review of Economic Studies,1971,38:1-12.
[52]Friedman, J. Trigger Strategy Equilibria in Finite Horizon, Supergames, Mimeo,1985
[53]Neyman, A.Bounded Complexity Justifies Cooperation in the Finitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma. Economics Letters,1985,19:227-229.
[54]Fudenberg, D. and Maskin, E.The Folk Theorem in Repeated Games with Discounting and Incomplete Information. Econometrica,1986,54:533-54
[55]Huberman,Bemardo,A. and Glance Natalie S.Beliefs and Cooperation. Presented at the "Chaos and Society" International Conference,1994,June.
[56]Bhaskar,V. and Van Damme. The competitive effects of price-floors. The Journal of Industrial Economics,1997,45(3):329-340
[57]Kreps, D and Wilson, R., Reputation and Imperfect Theory, Journal of Economic,1982,27:253-279.
[58]Fisher, A. The Use of Multiple Measurements in Taxonomic Problems, Ann.Eugenics,1936,7:179-188
[59]Durand, D. Risk Elements in Consumer Installment Financing. National Bureau of Economic Research, New York,1941
[60]Weingartner, M. Concepts and Utilization of Credit Scoring Techniques, Banking,1966,58:51-53
[61]Smalley, O, A. and Sturdivant, F, D. The Credit Merchants:A History of Spiegel Inc, Carbondale:Southern Illinois University Press,1973
[62]Thomas L, C. A Survey of Credit and Behavioural Scoring:Forecasting Financial Risk of Lending to Consumers, International Journal of Forecasting, 2000,(16),2:149-172
[63]Johnson, W. Legal, Social and Economic Issues Implementing Scoring in the U.S, Credit Scoring and Credit Control, Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1992,19-32
[64]Wonderlic, E, F. An Analysis of Factors in Granting Credit, Indiana:Indiana University Press,1952,163-176
[65]Myers, J. H. and Forgy, E. W. The Development of Numerical Credit Evaluation Systems. Journal of the American Statistical Associaton,1963,58: 799-806
[66]Nevin, J, R. and Churchill, G, A. The Equal Credit Opportunity Act:An Evalution, Marketing,1979,42:95-104
[67]Capon, N. Credit Scoring Systems:A Critical Analysis Maketing, 1982,46:82-91
[68]钟楚男.个人信用征信制度.北京：中国金融出版社,2002,3-4
[69]龙西安.个人信用优先假说—关于个人信用特性及其作用地位的分析.财经理论与实践,2003,(9)：19-23
[70]王淑芹.论法律信用与道德信用的特性.道德与文明,2003(5)：54-57
[71]孙智英,黄茂兴.信用资源构成、形成特征及价值分析.福建论坛人文社会科学版,2006,(5)：133-135
[72]林钧跃.企业与消费者信用管理.上海：上海财经大学出版社,2005,382-383
[73]林钧跃.消费者信用管理.北京：中国方正出版社,2002,292-300
[74]李孟来.我国个人信用评分模型的应用探讨.金融管理与研究,2009,(2)：18-26
[75]谷国良,赵锦华,钟嘉明.个人信用评分.深圳：海天出版社,2005,15-17
[76]徐宪平,社会信用体系知识读本,长沙：湖南人民出版社,2006,93-95
[77]晏艳阳,刘弢.个人信用评分研究及其发展.湘潮,2008,(6)：1-3
[78]魏海坤.神经网络结构设计的理论与方法.北京：国防工业出版社,2005
[79]Altman, E. I. Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance,1968,23(4):589-609
[80]Eisenbeis, R. A. Pitfalls in the Application of Discriminant Analysis in Business. Finance, and Economics. The Journal of Finance,1977,32:875-900
[81]Eric Rosenberg, Alan Gleit. Quantitative Methods in Credit Management:A Survey. Operations Research,1994,42, (4):589-613
[82]Orgler, Y. E. A Credit Scoring Model for Commercial Loans. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,1970,(11):435-445
[83]Fitzpatrick, D. B. An Analysis of Bank Credit Card Profit. Journal of Bank Research,1976, (7):199-205
[84]Lucas, A. Updating Scorecards:Removing the Mystique. In Credit Scoring and Credit Control, ed. L. C. Thomas, J. N. Crook, and D. B. Edelman, Oxford: Clarendon Press,1992,180-197
[85]Henley, W. E. Statistical aspects of credit scoring. Unpublished PhD thesis,The Open University, Milton Keynes,UK,1995
[86]Reichert, A. K., Cho, C-C., and Wagner, G. M. An Examnination of the Conceptual Issues Involved in Development Credit-Scoring Models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,1983,1:101-114
[87]Wiginton, J. C., A Note on the Comparison of Logit and Discriminant Models of Consumer Credit Behavior. Journal of the Financial Quantitative Annals,1980,(15):757-770
[88]Srinivasan V. and Kim, Y.H. Credit Granting:A Comparative Analysis of Classification Procedures. Journal of Finance,1987,42:665-683
[89]Leonard, K. J. A Fraud Alert Model for Credit Cards During the Authorization Process. Journal of Mathematics Applied Business Industry,1993,(5):57-62
[90]Henley. W.E and Hand, D. J. Construction of a K-nearest neighbour Credit-scoring System. IMA Journal of Madrematics Applied in Business and Industry,1997,8(4):305-321
[91]Makowski, P. Credit Scoring Branches Out. The Credit World,1985,75:30-37
[92]Coffman, J.Y. The Proper Role of Tree Analysis in Forecasting the Risk Behavior of Borrowers. MdS Reports, Management Decision System, Atlanta,1986,3-9
[93]Carter, C and Catlett, J. Assessing Credit Card Applications Using Machine Learning, IEEE Expert Vol. Fall,1987,71-79
[94]Mehta, D. The Information of Credit Policy Models. Management Science, 1988,(15):30-50
[95]Boyle, M., Crook, J. N., Hamilton, R.,and Thomas, L. C. Methods for Credit Scoring Applied to Slow Payers. Credit Scoring and Credit Control by Thomas, L. C., Crook, J. N.,and Edelman, D. B.,eds., Oxford University Press,Oxford,1992,75-90
[96]Arnminger, G., Enache. D. and Bonne, T. Analyzing Credit Risk Data:a Comparison of Logistic Discrimination, Classification Tree Analysis and Feed-forward Networks, Computational Statistics.1997,(12):293-310
[97]张维,李玉霜,王春峰.递归分类树在信用风险分析中的应用.系统工程理论与实践,2000,(03)：50-62
[98]周根贵.数据仓储与数据挖掘.杭州：浙江大学出版社,2004
[99]Bounsaythip, C. and Rinta-Runsala,E. Overview of Data Mining for Customer Behavior Modeling,Information Technology.2001,(1):1-59
[100]宁克俭.数据库技术的发展述评.电讯技术,2003,(03)：17-19
[101]肖攸安,李腊元.数据挖掘技术初探.交通与计算机2002,(1)：25-30
[102]Odom, M.D. and Sharda, R. A Neural Network Model for Bankruptcy Prediction. Proceedings of the IEEE International Joint Conference On Neural Networks,1990,163-168
[103]K, Fukunaga. Introduction to Statistical Pattern Recognition, Academic Press,1990
[104]Desai, V. S.,Crook, J. N. and Overstreet, G. A. A Comparison of Neural Networks and Linear Scoring Models in the Credit Environment. European Journal of Operational Research,1996,95:24-37
[105]Desai, V. S., Convay, D. G., Crook, J. N. and Overstreet, G. A. Credit Scoring Models in the Credit Union Environment Using Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms. Journal of Mathematics Applied in Business Industry, 1997,(8):323-346
[106]West, D. Neural Network Credit Scoring Models. Computers and Operational Research,2000,(27):1131-1152
[107]Mangasarian O. L. Mathematical Programming in Neural Networks. ORSA Journal on Computing,1993,(5)349-360
[108]Altman E, Marco G, Varetto F. Corporate Distress diagnosis Comparisons Using linear Discriminant analysis and neural networks..Banking and Finance,1994,(18):505-529
[109]Coats, P., Fant, K., Recognizing Financial Distress Patterns Using A Neural Network Tool Financial Management,1993,22(3):142-155.
[110]Tam K Y, Kiang M, Managerial Applications of Neural Networks:The Case of Bank Failure Predictions. Management Sciences,1992,38(1):926-947
[111]Altman, Predicting Financial Distress of Companies:Revisiting the Z-Score and ZETA Models. SSRN Working Paper Series,2000
[112]Hand, D. J and Henley, W. E. Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring:A Review. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 1997,160(3):523-541
[113]石庆焱,秦宛顺.个人信用评分模型及其应用.北京：中国方正出版社,2006,100-103
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |