我国太阳能发电管理策略研究
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摘要
由于太阳能光伏发电在应对能源危机、推进战略型新兴产业发展的重要战略地位以及解决特殊用电需求的作用，太阳能发电已经得到世界各国的普遍重视。在我国，户用光伏电源系统已被用于解决无电地区的农牧民生活用电，光伏并网发电示范工程也在蓬勃发展，太阳能光伏发电逐渐从解决特殊用电转向并网发电。但是，对于太阳能发电核心管理问题的研究却严重滞后于太阳能发电的步伐。提炼太阳能发电相关管理的核心问题，建立分析的基本理论、方法和技术，是一项重要的基础性工作。本文从太阳能发电的特殊用电管理、并网发电的扶持政策制定以及企业光伏并网发电投资这三个维度，构建起研究我国太阳能发电管理问题的基本框架，并开展系统的分析，形成一个较为完整的体系。
首先，研究离网用户太阳能供电资产管理策略。通过讨论草原牧区太阳能供电设备的供给问题，提出解决农牧民使用过程中所产生的道德风险问题并建立激励约束机制，研究并设计太阳能供电设备这类特殊国有资产的管理模式。
接下来，研究离网用户太阳能供电服务管理策略。在分析草原牧区太阳能供电工程性质的基础上，针对草原牧区特殊区情，讨论供电设备更换、维护等工程后期服务管理问题，研究并设计一套有效的服务管理模式；针对维修服务系统，采用排队技术分析系统性能，作为系统优化的参考；针对太阳能供电设备废旧部件的回收处置问题，研究并构建一种废弃物逆向回收系统，用以解决草原牧区环境污染问题；针对服务系统、回收系统的可持续问题，讨论工程运作资金的管理问题。
其次，研究政府对光伏并网发电投资的成本补偿策略。在风险因素——建设成本及上网电价不确定的情况下，提出基于实物期权的成本补偿理论。先讨论发电企业的最佳投资时机并分析成本补偿政策对发电企业投资决策的影响，然后分析最佳投资时机的可达性并讨论成本补偿政策有效实施的必要条件，最后基于等待投资时间来确定成本补偿比例，并对政府成本补偿策略进行总结。
再次，研究补偿策略下光伏并网发电项目数和补偿比例问题。从政府制定光伏并网发电成本补偿政策的角度，通过对发电企业投资光伏发电项目的必要条件的分析，并求解出最优成本补偿比例以及最佳的光伏发电项目数，给出政府补偿政策制定并讨论成功实施的关键措施。
然后，研究模糊环境下的光伏并网发电投资策略。针对光伏并网发电项目面临的不确定因素以及项目期权定价法中参数的模糊性，利用模糊集理论构建一种模糊决策支持系统（FDSS），对光伏并网发电投资项目风险进行评估，研究总体风险对项目期权价值的影响并采用模糊实物期权方法对项目价值进行估算。最后通过实际的光伏并网发电项目案例来验证本文提出的方法。
最后，研究发电企业光伏并网发电投资的规模问题。首先采用实物期权投资方法，在上网电价服从几何布朗运动的情况下，获得依赖于成本函数形式的企业最优装机容量所满足的微分方程，并获得最佳投资时机。其次，在具体成本函数形式的设定下讨论企业投资行为。最后，通过数值仿真实验揭示模型参数的敏感性以及管理策略。
Solar energy photovoltaic (PV) power generation has been globally valued becauseof its roles to cope with energy crisis, to facilitate the strategic status of the emergingindustry, and to solve special demands for electricity. In China, household solar energypower system has been applied to solve the living electricity consumption of farmersand herders in power-free regions. Trial projects of grid-connected PV power generationare booming. Solar energy PV power generation has been gradually transformed fromsolving special demands for electricity to grid-connected power system. However, theresearch on the core issues in management of solar energy power generation lags behindthe development of the technology. Therefore, it is a basic and important work toabstract the core problems in management related to solar energy power generation andto establish the analyzing theories, methods, and techniques. This thesis constructs thebasic framework to study managing issues in our solar energy power generation,develops systematic analysis, and forms a comparatively complete theoretical systemfrom three dimensions as managing special demands for electricity in PV powergeneration, supporting policy constitution for grid-connected power system, andenterprise investment in grid-connected PV power generation.
First, the thesis studies the asset managing strategies of off-grid users of solarenergy supply. By discussing the supply issues of solar power equipment in pastureareas, the thesis proposes the measures to solve moral risk problems in the using processby farmers and herders, establishes the motivating and restraining mechanisms, andstudies and designs the managing modes to this special type of state-owned assets assolar power supply equipment.
Second, the thesis studies the service managing strategies of off-grid users of solarenergy supply. Based on the analysis to the nature of solar power supply projects inpasture areas, according to the special situation of the areas, the thesis discusses themanaging problems in projects’ post-services as the change and the maintaining ofpower supply equipment, studies and designs a set of effective mode in servicemanagement. As to maintaining service system, the thesis adopts the queuing technique to analyze the performance of the system as the reference to optimize the system. As tothe recycling of used parts, the thesis constructs a reverse recycling system of waste tosolve the problems in environmental pollution. As to the sustainability of the serviceand recycling system, the thesis discusses the managing issue of project operationscapital.
Next, the thesis studies the cost reimbursement strategies of the government to theinvestment in grid-connected PV power generation. When the riskyfactors—constructing cost and grid-connecting electricity price—are uncertain, thethesis proposes the real-option-based cost reimbursement theory. The analyses are: first,generation firms’ optimal investment timing and the influence of cost reimbursementpolicy to investment decision-making by the generation firms; then, accessibility ofoptimal investment timing and necessary conditions for cost reimbursement policy to beeffectively implemented. Based on these analyses, the ratio of cost reimbursement isdetermined by the waiting time for investment, and conclusions are given togovernment’s cost reimbursement strategies.
Then, the thesis studies the ratio of reimbursement and number of projects ofgrid-connected PV power generation in cost reimbursement strategies. From theperspective of constituting cost reimbursement policy for grid-connected PV powergeneration, by analyzing the necessary conditions for generation firms to invest in PVpower generation projects, the thesis calculates the optimal ratio of cost reimbursementand best number of PV power generation projects, and proposes key measures for thegovernment to constitute reimbursement policy and to successfully implement thepolicies.
After that, the thesis studies the investment strategies in fussy environment forgrid-connected PV power generation. As to the uncertain factors in grid-connected PVpower generation projects and the fussy parameters in project option pricing, the thesis,by using fussy set theory, constructs Fussy Decision-making Supporting System,evaluates risks in investment projects of grid-connected PV power generation, studiesthe influence of general risks to the value of project’s option, calculates the value ofproject by fussy real option, and verifies the method proposed in the thesis by practicalcases of grid-connected PV power generation project.
Last, the thesis studies the investment scale of generation firms in grid-connected PV power generation. First, by using method of real option investment, under thecircumstance of grid-connected electricity price following Geometric Brownian Motion,we get the differential equation satisfied to enterprise’s optimal installed capacitydependent on cost function, and we get the optimal investment timing. Second, wediscuss enterprise investment behavior under the setting of specific cost function. Last,we discover the sensibility of model parameters and management strategy by numericalsimulation experiment.
首先，研究离网用户太阳能供电资产管理策略。通过讨论草原牧区太阳能供电设备的供给问题，提出解决农牧民使用过程中所产生的道德风险问题并建立激励约束机制，研究并设计太阳能供电设备这类特殊国有资产的管理模式。
接下来，研究离网用户太阳能供电服务管理策略。在分析草原牧区太阳能供电工程性质的基础上，针对草原牧区特殊区情，讨论供电设备更换、维护等工程后期服务管理问题，研究并设计一套有效的服务管理模式；针对维修服务系统，采用排队技术分析系统性能，作为系统优化的参考；针对太阳能供电设备废旧部件的回收处置问题，研究并构建一种废弃物逆向回收系统，用以解决草原牧区环境污染问题；针对服务系统、回收系统的可持续问题，讨论工程运作资金的管理问题。
其次，研究政府对光伏并网发电投资的成本补偿策略。在风险因素——建设成本及上网电价不确定的情况下，提出基于实物期权的成本补偿理论。先讨论发电企业的最佳投资时机并分析成本补偿政策对发电企业投资决策的影响，然后分析最佳投资时机的可达性并讨论成本补偿政策有效实施的必要条件，最后基于等待投资时间来确定成本补偿比例，并对政府成本补偿策略进行总结。
再次，研究补偿策略下光伏并网发电项目数和补偿比例问题。从政府制定光伏并网发电成本补偿政策的角度，通过对发电企业投资光伏发电项目的必要条件的分析，并求解出最优成本补偿比例以及最佳的光伏发电项目数，给出政府补偿政策制定并讨论成功实施的关键措施。
然后，研究模糊环境下的光伏并网发电投资策略。针对光伏并网发电项目面临的不确定因素以及项目期权定价法中参数的模糊性，利用模糊集理论构建一种模糊决策支持系统（FDSS），对光伏并网发电投资项目风险进行评估，研究总体风险对项目期权价值的影响并采用模糊实物期权方法对项目价值进行估算。最后通过实际的光伏并网发电项目案例来验证本文提出的方法。
最后，研究发电企业光伏并网发电投资的规模问题。首先采用实物期权投资方法，在上网电价服从几何布朗运动的情况下，获得依赖于成本函数形式的企业最优装机容量所满足的微分方程，并获得最佳投资时机。其次，在具体成本函数形式的设定下讨论企业投资行为。最后，通过数值仿真实验揭示模型参数的敏感性以及管理策略。
Solar energy photovoltaic (PV) power generation has been globally valued becauseof its roles to cope with energy crisis, to facilitate the strategic status of the emergingindustry, and to solve special demands for electricity. In China, household solar energypower system has been applied to solve the living electricity consumption of farmersand herders in power-free regions. Trial projects of grid-connected PV power generationare booming. Solar energy PV power generation has been gradually transformed fromsolving special demands for electricity to grid-connected power system. However, theresearch on the core issues in management of solar energy power generation lags behindthe development of the technology. Therefore, it is a basic and important work toabstract the core problems in management related to solar energy power generation andto establish the analyzing theories, methods, and techniques. This thesis constructs thebasic framework to study managing issues in our solar energy power generation,develops systematic analysis, and forms a comparatively complete theoretical systemfrom three dimensions as managing special demands for electricity in PV powergeneration, supporting policy constitution for grid-connected power system, andenterprise investment in grid-connected PV power generation.
First, the thesis studies the asset managing strategies of off-grid users of solarenergy supply. By discussing the supply issues of solar power equipment in pastureareas, the thesis proposes the measures to solve moral risk problems in the using processby farmers and herders, establishes the motivating and restraining mechanisms, andstudies and designs the managing modes to this special type of state-owned assets assolar power supply equipment.
Second, the thesis studies the service managing strategies of off-grid users of solarenergy supply. Based on the analysis to the nature of solar power supply projects inpasture areas, according to the special situation of the areas, the thesis discusses themanaging problems in projects’ post-services as the change and the maintaining ofpower supply equipment, studies and designs a set of effective mode in servicemanagement. As to maintaining service system, the thesis adopts the queuing technique to analyze the performance of the system as the reference to optimize the system. As tothe recycling of used parts, the thesis constructs a reverse recycling system of waste tosolve the problems in environmental pollution. As to the sustainability of the serviceand recycling system, the thesis discusses the managing issue of project operationscapital.
Next, the thesis studies the cost reimbursement strategies of the government to theinvestment in grid-connected PV power generation. When the riskyfactors—constructing cost and grid-connecting electricity price—are uncertain, thethesis proposes the real-option-based cost reimbursement theory. The analyses are: first,generation firms’ optimal investment timing and the influence of cost reimbursementpolicy to investment decision-making by the generation firms; then, accessibility ofoptimal investment timing and necessary conditions for cost reimbursement policy to beeffectively implemented. Based on these analyses, the ratio of cost reimbursement isdetermined by the waiting time for investment, and conclusions are given togovernment’s cost reimbursement strategies.
Then, the thesis studies the ratio of reimbursement and number of projects ofgrid-connected PV power generation in cost reimbursement strategies. From theperspective of constituting cost reimbursement policy for grid-connected PV powergeneration, by analyzing the necessary conditions for generation firms to invest in PVpower generation projects, the thesis calculates the optimal ratio of cost reimbursementand best number of PV power generation projects, and proposes key measures for thegovernment to constitute reimbursement policy and to successfully implement thepolicies.
After that, the thesis studies the investment strategies in fussy environment forgrid-connected PV power generation. As to the uncertain factors in grid-connected PVpower generation projects and the fussy parameters in project option pricing, the thesis,by using fussy set theory, constructs Fussy Decision-making Supporting System,evaluates risks in investment projects of grid-connected PV power generation, studiesthe influence of general risks to the value of project’s option, calculates the value ofproject by fussy real option, and verifies the method proposed in the thesis by practicalcases of grid-connected PV power generation project.
Last, the thesis studies the investment scale of generation firms in grid-connected PV power generation. First, by using method of real option investment, under thecircumstance of grid-connected electricity price following Geometric Brownian Motion,we get the differential equation satisfied to enterprise’s optimal installed capacitydependent on cost function, and we get the optimal investment timing. Second, wediscuss enterprise investment behavior under the setting of specific cost function. Last,we discover the sensibility of model parameters and management strategy by numericalsimulation experiment.
引文
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