面向风险评估与应急管理的公路网结构性质评价与分析方法
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摘要
公路交通运输是我国交通运输业的关键组成部分,承担着重要的客货运输和国防安全保障任务,支撑国民经济可持续发展和百姓高品质出行需求。
“十二五”期间国家高速公路网和国省干线公路网“两网体系”将日趋完善,公路网网络结构和运营管理模式正在发生深刻变化。日益频发的自然灾害、恶劣气象以及重特大交通事故等突发事件对公路网运营安全和运输效率产生重大影响,严重情况下造成大面积路网“瘫痪”,给国民经济发展和人民生命财产安全带来不可估量的损失。
现有以路段为主的风险分析和应急管理技术和手段已不能完全适用于路网环境下,跨区域、大范围、综合协调与调度的应急管理需求,更不能满足未来网络化、规模化和智能化的公路网运营管理需求。
公路网实际运营中,其基础设施网络结构布局均衡、脆弱与否是公路网结构安全、路网功能正常发挥的根本保证。掌握路网结构性质,正确辨识其结构风险是路网管理部门开展有针对性预防和管理突发事件的基础,是制订有效应急预案的重要依据。目前,我国正由路段管理模式向路网管理模式过渡阶段,尚缺乏支撑公路网日常运营和应急管理的理论体系与方法研究。
本文从路网管理角度出发,以公路网基础设施网络为研究对象,开展面向风险评估与应急管理的公路网结构性质评价、分析理论与方法研究,旨在为路网管理者提供适合我国公路网运营管理和应急管理的理论基础和分析方法。主要研究内容包括以下几部分：
首先,提出并构建了由公路交通运输基础设施层网络、运输层网络和管理层网络三层网络构成的公路交通运输网系统概念模型,阐明了各层网络之间的耦合作用关系。研究了路网结构风险与应急管理的科学问题。分析了公路交通运输网系统与特性,公路网突发事件与路网结构、路网结构风险与应急管理的关系,以及公路网应急管理的核心问题,建立了基于路网结构特性及风险分析基础之上的路网应急管理标准流程框架。给出了路径效能和路径效率定义,提出了应急管理中以路径效率为最佳的路网中最优路径择路原则。
其次,从公路网(指基础设施网络)的结构和功能角度出发,分别构建了适用于评价公路网中节点和路段局部特征属性重要度和关键度的评价指标体系和公路网全局特征属性的评价指标体系。建立了适用于节点和路段综合属性重要度和关键度的评价指标及其一般模型。
再次,提出了公路网中关键节点和关键路段的定义及分类,研究并提出以字典序法、综合评估法和逆向检测法综合应用的关键节点和关键路段辨识的新方法,并构建了清晰明确的辨识流程和实施步骤。
第四,研究了公路网结构风险分析与评估方法。通过对路网的脆弱性分析,界定了公路网结构风险及其分类,建立了适用于公路网结构均衡性风险、关键节点和关键路段承载能力均衡性以及上述节点和路段失效后网络性能损失程度的评估指标及定量评估方法,提出了公路网结构综合风险评估的一般模型,形成了公路网结构风险分析的方法体系。
最后,以我国华东地区的上海、浙江、安徽等5省市路网进行了实例仿真实验,验证了所构建的公路网结构性质评价指标及理论分析方法的正确性、合理性及工程可行性,并对实例路网结构特性及存在的风险提出了具体的改善措施和建议。
Highway transport is an important part of the transportation industry. It plays an important role for passenger and freight transport and defense security.It supports sustainable development for national economy and meets the demand in high-quality travel for people. During "Twelfth Five Years Plan", the national highway network and the national and provincial trunk highway network are under construction, and the highway network and operational management will be undergoing profound changes. Frequent emergencies, such as natural disasters, bad weather, and severe traffic accidents and so on, have a significant impact on safety and transportation efficiency of highway network. A large scale "paralysis" can be caused in serious case. This will bring immeasurable losses of economic development, people's lives and property safety.
The current risk analysis methods and contingency management techniques are focused on segments level. However, they do not meet emergency management needs for cross-regional, large-scale, comprehensive coordination and scheduling under highway network environment, as well as for the management needs of future network scale and intelligent highway network operators.
In practice, the balance and vulnerability of network structure and layout are the fundamental guarantee for the highway network safety and operation. The nature and structural risk of highway network are the basis of prevention and management of emergencies for highway agency, and the basis to make effective contingency plans. Currently, China is in a transition period from the segments management to network management. The theories and methods for operations and emergency management of the highway network are still lack. In this thesis, a series of theoretical analyses was carried out to investigate the risk assessment and emergency management of highway infrastructure. It is aimed to establish a theoretical basis and analysis method which are suitable for China's highway network operations management and emergency management. The main contents are divided as followings:
Firstly, the highway transportation network system is built up. The coupling relationship among the infrastructure layer, transport layer and management layer is illustrated. The scientific issues of highway network structure risk and emergency management are studied. The highway transportation network system and its characteristics, the relationship between highway network emergency and highway network structure, the relationship of highway network structure risk and emergency management, and the core problem of the highway network emergency management are analyzed. The standard process framework of highway network emergency management based on highway network structural characteristics and risk analysis is established. Path efficacy and efficiency are defined. The path efficiency optimal and shortest path route choice principle at emergency management are proposed.
Secondly, from the structure and function of the highway network, the evaluation index system for highway network nodes and links local feature attributes importance and criticality and highway network global features properties are constructed, respectively. The evaluation indices suitable for nodes and segments of composite attribute importance and critical degree and its general model are proposed.
Thirdly, the definition of critical nodes and segments of highway network and the classification standard are given. By using lexicographic method, a comprehensive evaluation method and reverse detection method, the new method for identification of critical nodes and segments are proposed. The identification processes is clearly shown.
Fourth, highway network risk analysis and assessment methods are researched. By highway network vulnerability analysis, the highway network structure risk and its classification are defined. Assessment indicators and quantitative assessment method are suitable for highway network structure balanced risk. The balance of carrying capacity of key nodes and segments and the extent of the loss of network performance are proposed. A general model of comprehensive risk assessment of highway network structure is proposed. The methodology of highway network structure risk analysis is formed.
Finally, a numerical simulation was conducted with data collected from the highway networks of five provinces and cities of eastern China (Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui and so on). It is verified to the correctness, reasonable and feasibility of highway network structural properties evaluation indicators and theoretical analysis method proposed in the study. Specific measures of structural characteristics and risks are suggested for the highway networks of five provinces and cities.
“十二五”期间国家高速公路网和国省干线公路网“两网体系”将日趋完善,公路网网络结构和运营管理模式正在发生深刻变化。日益频发的自然灾害、恶劣气象以及重特大交通事故等突发事件对公路网运营安全和运输效率产生重大影响,严重情况下造成大面积路网“瘫痪”,给国民经济发展和人民生命财产安全带来不可估量的损失。
现有以路段为主的风险分析和应急管理技术和手段已不能完全适用于路网环境下,跨区域、大范围、综合协调与调度的应急管理需求,更不能满足未来网络化、规模化和智能化的公路网运营管理需求。
公路网实际运营中,其基础设施网络结构布局均衡、脆弱与否是公路网结构安全、路网功能正常发挥的根本保证。掌握路网结构性质,正确辨识其结构风险是路网管理部门开展有针对性预防和管理突发事件的基础,是制订有效应急预案的重要依据。目前,我国正由路段管理模式向路网管理模式过渡阶段,尚缺乏支撑公路网日常运营和应急管理的理论体系与方法研究。
本文从路网管理角度出发,以公路网基础设施网络为研究对象,开展面向风险评估与应急管理的公路网结构性质评价、分析理论与方法研究,旨在为路网管理者提供适合我国公路网运营管理和应急管理的理论基础和分析方法。主要研究内容包括以下几部分：
首先,提出并构建了由公路交通运输基础设施层网络、运输层网络和管理层网络三层网络构成的公路交通运输网系统概念模型,阐明了各层网络之间的耦合作用关系。研究了路网结构风险与应急管理的科学问题。分析了公路交通运输网系统与特性,公路网突发事件与路网结构、路网结构风险与应急管理的关系,以及公路网应急管理的核心问题,建立了基于路网结构特性及风险分析基础之上的路网应急管理标准流程框架。给出了路径效能和路径效率定义,提出了应急管理中以路径效率为最佳的路网中最优路径择路原则。
其次,从公路网(指基础设施网络)的结构和功能角度出发,分别构建了适用于评价公路网中节点和路段局部特征属性重要度和关键度的评价指标体系和公路网全局特征属性的评价指标体系。建立了适用于节点和路段综合属性重要度和关键度的评价指标及其一般模型。
再次,提出了公路网中关键节点和关键路段的定义及分类,研究并提出以字典序法、综合评估法和逆向检测法综合应用的关键节点和关键路段辨识的新方法,并构建了清晰明确的辨识流程和实施步骤。
第四,研究了公路网结构风险分析与评估方法。通过对路网的脆弱性分析,界定了公路网结构风险及其分类,建立了适用于公路网结构均衡性风险、关键节点和关键路段承载能力均衡性以及上述节点和路段失效后网络性能损失程度的评估指标及定量评估方法,提出了公路网结构综合风险评估的一般模型,形成了公路网结构风险分析的方法体系。
最后,以我国华东地区的上海、浙江、安徽等5省市路网进行了实例仿真实验,验证了所构建的公路网结构性质评价指标及理论分析方法的正确性、合理性及工程可行性,并对实例路网结构特性及存在的风险提出了具体的改善措施和建议。
Highway transport is an important part of the transportation industry. It plays an important role for passenger and freight transport and defense security.It supports sustainable development for national economy and meets the demand in high-quality travel for people. During "Twelfth Five Years Plan", the national highway network and the national and provincial trunk highway network are under construction, and the highway network and operational management will be undergoing profound changes. Frequent emergencies, such as natural disasters, bad weather, and severe traffic accidents and so on, have a significant impact on safety and transportation efficiency of highway network. A large scale "paralysis" can be caused in serious case. This will bring immeasurable losses of economic development, people's lives and property safety.
The current risk analysis methods and contingency management techniques are focused on segments level. However, they do not meet emergency management needs for cross-regional, large-scale, comprehensive coordination and scheduling under highway network environment, as well as for the management needs of future network scale and intelligent highway network operators.
In practice, the balance and vulnerability of network structure and layout are the fundamental guarantee for the highway network safety and operation. The nature and structural risk of highway network are the basis of prevention and management of emergencies for highway agency, and the basis to make effective contingency plans. Currently, China is in a transition period from the segments management to network management. The theories and methods for operations and emergency management of the highway network are still lack. In this thesis, a series of theoretical analyses was carried out to investigate the risk assessment and emergency management of highway infrastructure. It is aimed to establish a theoretical basis and analysis method which are suitable for China's highway network operations management and emergency management. The main contents are divided as followings:
Firstly, the highway transportation network system is built up. The coupling relationship among the infrastructure layer, transport layer and management layer is illustrated. The scientific issues of highway network structure risk and emergency management are studied. The highway transportation network system and its characteristics, the relationship between highway network emergency and highway network structure, the relationship of highway network structure risk and emergency management, and the core problem of the highway network emergency management are analyzed. The standard process framework of highway network emergency management based on highway network structural characteristics and risk analysis is established. Path efficacy and efficiency are defined. The path efficiency optimal and shortest path route choice principle at emergency management are proposed.
Secondly, from the structure and function of the highway network, the evaluation index system for highway network nodes and links local feature attributes importance and criticality and highway network global features properties are constructed, respectively. The evaluation indices suitable for nodes and segments of composite attribute importance and critical degree and its general model are proposed.
Thirdly, the definition of critical nodes and segments of highway network and the classification standard are given. By using lexicographic method, a comprehensive evaluation method and reverse detection method, the new method for identification of critical nodes and segments are proposed. The identification processes is clearly shown.
Fourth, highway network risk analysis and assessment methods are researched. By highway network vulnerability analysis, the highway network structure risk and its classification are defined. Assessment indicators and quantitative assessment method are suitable for highway network structure balanced risk. The balance of carrying capacity of key nodes and segments and the extent of the loss of network performance are proposed. A general model of comprehensive risk assessment of highway network structure is proposed. The methodology of highway network structure risk analysis is formed.
Finally, a numerical simulation was conducted with data collected from the highway networks of five provinces and cities of eastern China (Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui and so on). It is verified to the correctness, reasonable and feasibility of highway network structural properties evaluation indicators and theoretical analysis method proposed in the study. Specific measures of structural characteristics and risks are suggested for the highway networks of five provinces and cities.
引文
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