中国有色金属产业整合研究
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摘要
有色金属是发展现代工业、现代国防和现代科学技术不可缺少的重要材料。中国是全球最大的有色金属生产和消费国,但我国有色金属产业组织结构不合理,集中度不高,部分产品产能过剩、产业集约化程度低,自主创新能力不强。为进一步提升中国有色金属产业竞争力,国家出台了一系列宏观调控政策、产业政策和行业准入制度,推动有色金属企业通过联营、合作、重组等形式走集约化、规模化经营之路。根据2011年颁布的有色金属工业“十二五”发展规划,未来5年内,产业布局及组织结构应该进一步优化,产业集中度应该进一步提高,有色金属行业将发生大规模的兼并重组,产业整合将成为中国有色金属产业发展的主基调。
本文以有色金属产业整合为研究对象,综合运用产业组织理论、交易成本经济学理论、社会分工理论、产业安全理论、产业区位理论和企业组织能力理论,结合中国有色金属产业特有经济属性,围绕产业组织整合、产业链纵向整合和产业空间整合三方面探讨中国有色金属产业整合。本文一方面将进一步完善产业整合理论,另一方面将在实践上指导中国政府的产业整合相关政策制定和有色金属企业并购重组决策。本文具有重要的理论和实用价值。
具体研究内容如下：
(1)围绕有色金属产业的资源特性、生产特点和消费市场特点,综合社会分工理论、交易成本经济学理论、产业组织理论和产业安全理论,界定了有色金属产业整合内涵,明确了有色金属产业整合的研究范畴,确定了企业和政府在产业整合中的地位,探讨了企业和政府共同参与中国有色金属产业整合的现实意义。
(2)运用哈佛学派的结构——行为——绩效范式(S-C-P)对中国有色金属产业组织展开了分析。研究发现：市场结构方面,中国有色金属产业集中度属于“准原子型市场结构”,中国有色金属产业的投资规模、生产规模和就业规模不断增加,但平均销售规模小；市场行为方面,自2009在国家政策鼓励下,企业更加活跃开展兼并重组,企业价格话语权弱。所以整体而言,中国有色金属产业绩效表现为：10年间中国有色金属产业整体销售利润水平有所改善,但中国有色金属企业销售利润率水平低,绝对绩效水平不高。
(3)构建面板数据,以2005-2009年15家销售排名领先的有色金属企业(集团)为样本,对产业的市场结构—效率-绩效关系理论假说进行检验。研究结果表明,哈佛的市场势力学说和混合的市场势力/效率——结构假说在中国的有色金属产业中都不成立,中国有色金属企业的绩效是建立在企业的效率基础之上。考虑到企业绩效并不完全等同于产业绩效,研究对2002、2005-2009年间产业集中度和产业绩效关系进行再探讨,并借鉴C-D-W方法,对相关各年有色金属产业的市场势力进行估算。研究表明,中国有色金属产业市场势力弱。
(4)在产业链纵向整合上,探讨了有色金属产业链纵向价值形态特点,通过分析得出有色金属矿采选环节是产业链关键环节、冶炼及压延加工环节是产业链主导环节的结论；结合有色金属产业特性和交易成本经济学理论,围绕有色金属产业价值链上下游环节,研究识别了不同环节纵向整合的收益和成本,探讨了企业组织能力因素在成本和收益中的调节作用,通过成本收益比较,给出了合适的有色金属产业链纵向整合模式建议。
(5)选取国外知名有色金属公司必和必拓、力拓公司和国内中国铝业公司对有色金属产业链纵向整合与绩效关系展开案例分析；以2011年中国有色金属上市公司数据为样本,建立多元线性回归模型进行中国有色金属企业纵向整合和企业绩效关系的实证研究。回归结果说明：有色金属企业纵向整合程度对经营绩效有显著正向影响作用,企业纵向整合经验和企业规模在纵向整合绩效中起显著影响作用,而企业技术创新能力虽然对纵向整合绩效中有正向作用,但影响不显著。
(6)本文测算了中国区域层面的产业空间集中度离散指标,探讨了中国有色金属产业的区域供求失衡情况；研究选择重点矿种铜、铝、铅和锌四种,通过回归模型判断出四种有色金属有三种产业布局都具有资源依托型特征。但考虑到全球调动有色金属资源和环境友好发展的需求,研究认为未来产业布局向沿海港口倾斜有一定合理性,是未来发展方向之一。
(7)研究围绕矿产资源、能源、水资源、交通运输、市场需求、环境容量、国外资源需求利用和区域内企业竞争情况各影响因素,对各区域展开了影响因素分析,并在此基础上提出有色金属空间整合思路。
Non ferrous metals are important and indispensable material for developing modem industry, modem national defense and modem science and technology. China is the largest non ferrous metals manufacturer and consumer in the world, however, the problems we see include:the current industrial structure is unreasonable; the industry concentration is not high; there is overcapacity of some products; the industrial intensification is still low; and the capacity of independent innovation still not strong etc. To further improve the competitiveness of China's non ferrous metal industry, the state has launched a series of macro-control and industrial policies and an industry access system to push the non ferrous enterprises onto a more intensive and larger scale operation track through ways of joint-venture, cooperation and restructuring, etc. According to the12th5year non ferrous metal industry development plan issued in2011, in the next5years, China's non ferrous metal industry will carry out a large-scale mergers and reorganizations; industry consolidation will become the main tone of its development
This dissertation is a research on non ferrous metal industry Integration, based on a comprehensive application of industrial organization theory, transaction cost economics, the theory of social division, industrial security, industrial location and enterprise organizational capacity. Given the unique economic properties, we explored China's non ferrous metals industry integration on3respects including the integration of industrial organization, vertical integration on industry chain and the integration of industrial space. This study will better the industry Integration theories on one hand and on the other hand it can provide some guidance to the Chinese government for their policy making related to industry integration and to the non ferrous metals enterprises for their mergers and acquisition decision making. This study has important theoretical and practical value.
The specific study contents are as follows:
The characteristics of the resources, manufacture and consuming market of the non ferrous industry being considered, and comprehensively based on the theory of social division, transaction cost economics, the theory of industry organization and industry security, we defined the connotation of non ferrous metal industry integration; clarified the benefits and costs of the organizational integration, vertical integration of the industry the integration of industrial space; determined the status of the enterprises and government in the industry integration; and explored the practical meaning of the enterprises and government jointly participating China's non ferrous metal industry integration.
We analyzed China's non ferrous metal industry organization using Harvard School's structure-conduct-performance paradigm. Our findings include:in respect of market structure, the concentration of China's non ferrous metal industry is a "quasi-atomic market structure", the scale of the investment, manufacture and employment has always been increasing but the average sales scale is still small; the analysis on enterprise conduct shows, encouraged by the state policies since2009, the enterprises have been more active in mergers and reorganizations, but the enterprises have a weak right of speech on pricing; therefore, in general, the performance of China's non ferrous metal industry shows, in the last10years, there has been certain improvement on the industry overall level of profit on sales, but the enterprises' sales profit level is low and their absolute performance level is not high.
Taking15non ferrous metal enterprises (groups) which topped the sales ranking during2005to2009as samples, this study built panel data to test the industry structure-efficiency-performance relations theoretical hypotheses. The result shows, the Harvard market forces doctrine and mixed market force/efficiency structure hypothesis don't work China's non ferrous metal industry, whose performance is based on the enterprises' efficiency. As in industry economics, enterprises' performance doesn't equal industry performance, we studied the data from2002, and2005-2009to re-explore the relations between industry concentration and industry performance, and used C-D-W method to estimate the market forces of China's non ferrous metal industry in respective years. The result shows China's non ferrous metal industry force is weak.
In respect of vertical integration of the industry chain, we explored non ferrous metal industry vertical value morphological characteristics. Through the analysis, we found out mining and ore-dressing are the key links of the industry chain, smelting and rolling are the dominant links of the industry chain. This study combined non ferrous metal industry characteristics with transaction cost economics and the theory of enterprise organizational capacity. Around the upstream and downstream links of non ferrous metal industry value chain, the study identified the benefits and costs of the vertical integration of various links, explored the regulatory role of enterprise organizational capacity factor on costs and benefits, and based on the comparison between cost and benefit, the study gives out suggestions on appropriate vertical integration models.
This study conducted case studies on the relations between non ferrous metal industry vertical integration and performance taking examples of the famous foreign and Chinese non ferrous metal companies such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, and CHINALCO. Taking the samples of the data collected from the listed Chinese non ferrous metal companies in2011, the study built a multiple linear regression model to conduct an empirical research on the relations between non ferrous metal enterprise vertical integration and performance. The regression result shows, the degree of the vertical integration of the listed non ferrous metal enterprises has a significant positive impact on their performance; the company's vertical integration experience and scale play a positive regulatory role in the vertical integration strategy affecting its operating performance; though the company's technical innovation capacity plays a positive role in the performance of vertical integration, the influence is not significant.
This study calculated the discrete indicators of the industrial space concentration at regional level of China's non ferrous metal industry, explored the regional imbalance between supply and demand. The study focused on4important minerals such as copper, aluminum, lead and zinc. Based on their regression models,3of those4non ferrous metals industry distribution have resources-relying feature. Considering the demand for globally moving non ferrous metal resources and environment friendly development, this study thinks, there is certain rationality for the future industry distribution to go more along the coastal harbors and that is the future trend of development.
This study conducted influencing factors analysis on various regions on their mineral resources, energy, water resources, transportation, market demand, environment capacity, the demand and utilization of foreign resources etc. and the enterprise competition situation within each region, and based on that, we came out some ideas of the spatial integration of non ferrous metal industry.
本文以有色金属产业整合为研究对象,综合运用产业组织理论、交易成本经济学理论、社会分工理论、产业安全理论、产业区位理论和企业组织能力理论,结合中国有色金属产业特有经济属性,围绕产业组织整合、产业链纵向整合和产业空间整合三方面探讨中国有色金属产业整合。本文一方面将进一步完善产业整合理论,另一方面将在实践上指导中国政府的产业整合相关政策制定和有色金属企业并购重组决策。本文具有重要的理论和实用价值。
具体研究内容如下：
(1)围绕有色金属产业的资源特性、生产特点和消费市场特点,综合社会分工理论、交易成本经济学理论、产业组织理论和产业安全理论,界定了有色金属产业整合内涵,明确了有色金属产业整合的研究范畴,确定了企业和政府在产业整合中的地位,探讨了企业和政府共同参与中国有色金属产业整合的现实意义。
(2)运用哈佛学派的结构——行为——绩效范式(S-C-P)对中国有色金属产业组织展开了分析。研究发现：市场结构方面,中国有色金属产业集中度属于“准原子型市场结构”,中国有色金属产业的投资规模、生产规模和就业规模不断增加,但平均销售规模小；市场行为方面,自2009在国家政策鼓励下,企业更加活跃开展兼并重组,企业价格话语权弱。所以整体而言,中国有色金属产业绩效表现为：10年间中国有色金属产业整体销售利润水平有所改善,但中国有色金属企业销售利润率水平低,绝对绩效水平不高。
(3)构建面板数据,以2005-2009年15家销售排名领先的有色金属企业(集团)为样本,对产业的市场结构—效率-绩效关系理论假说进行检验。研究结果表明,哈佛的市场势力学说和混合的市场势力/效率——结构假说在中国的有色金属产业中都不成立,中国有色金属企业的绩效是建立在企业的效率基础之上。考虑到企业绩效并不完全等同于产业绩效,研究对2002、2005-2009年间产业集中度和产业绩效关系进行再探讨,并借鉴C-D-W方法,对相关各年有色金属产业的市场势力进行估算。研究表明,中国有色金属产业市场势力弱。
(4)在产业链纵向整合上,探讨了有色金属产业链纵向价值形态特点,通过分析得出有色金属矿采选环节是产业链关键环节、冶炼及压延加工环节是产业链主导环节的结论；结合有色金属产业特性和交易成本经济学理论,围绕有色金属产业价值链上下游环节,研究识别了不同环节纵向整合的收益和成本,探讨了企业组织能力因素在成本和收益中的调节作用,通过成本收益比较,给出了合适的有色金属产业链纵向整合模式建议。
(5)选取国外知名有色金属公司必和必拓、力拓公司和国内中国铝业公司对有色金属产业链纵向整合与绩效关系展开案例分析；以2011年中国有色金属上市公司数据为样本,建立多元线性回归模型进行中国有色金属企业纵向整合和企业绩效关系的实证研究。回归结果说明：有色金属企业纵向整合程度对经营绩效有显著正向影响作用,企业纵向整合经验和企业规模在纵向整合绩效中起显著影响作用,而企业技术创新能力虽然对纵向整合绩效中有正向作用,但影响不显著。
(6)本文测算了中国区域层面的产业空间集中度离散指标,探讨了中国有色金属产业的区域供求失衡情况；研究选择重点矿种铜、铝、铅和锌四种,通过回归模型判断出四种有色金属有三种产业布局都具有资源依托型特征。但考虑到全球调动有色金属资源和环境友好发展的需求,研究认为未来产业布局向沿海港口倾斜有一定合理性,是未来发展方向之一。
(7)研究围绕矿产资源、能源、水资源、交通运输、市场需求、环境容量、国外资源需求利用和区域内企业竞争情况各影响因素,对各区域展开了影响因素分析,并在此基础上提出有色金属空间整合思路。
Non ferrous metals are important and indispensable material for developing modem industry, modem national defense and modem science and technology. China is the largest non ferrous metals manufacturer and consumer in the world, however, the problems we see include:the current industrial structure is unreasonable; the industry concentration is not high; there is overcapacity of some products; the industrial intensification is still low; and the capacity of independent innovation still not strong etc. To further improve the competitiveness of China's non ferrous metal industry, the state has launched a series of macro-control and industrial policies and an industry access system to push the non ferrous enterprises onto a more intensive and larger scale operation track through ways of joint-venture, cooperation and restructuring, etc. According to the12th5year non ferrous metal industry development plan issued in2011, in the next5years, China's non ferrous metal industry will carry out a large-scale mergers and reorganizations; industry consolidation will become the main tone of its development
This dissertation is a research on non ferrous metal industry Integration, based on a comprehensive application of industrial organization theory, transaction cost economics, the theory of social division, industrial security, industrial location and enterprise organizational capacity. Given the unique economic properties, we explored China's non ferrous metals industry integration on3respects including the integration of industrial organization, vertical integration on industry chain and the integration of industrial space. This study will better the industry Integration theories on one hand and on the other hand it can provide some guidance to the Chinese government for their policy making related to industry integration and to the non ferrous metals enterprises for their mergers and acquisition decision making. This study has important theoretical and practical value.
The specific study contents are as follows:
The characteristics of the resources, manufacture and consuming market of the non ferrous industry being considered, and comprehensively based on the theory of social division, transaction cost economics, the theory of industry organization and industry security, we defined the connotation of non ferrous metal industry integration; clarified the benefits and costs of the organizational integration, vertical integration of the industry the integration of industrial space; determined the status of the enterprises and government in the industry integration; and explored the practical meaning of the enterprises and government jointly participating China's non ferrous metal industry integration.
We analyzed China's non ferrous metal industry organization using Harvard School's structure-conduct-performance paradigm. Our findings include:in respect of market structure, the concentration of China's non ferrous metal industry is a "quasi-atomic market structure", the scale of the investment, manufacture and employment has always been increasing but the average sales scale is still small; the analysis on enterprise conduct shows, encouraged by the state policies since2009, the enterprises have been more active in mergers and reorganizations, but the enterprises have a weak right of speech on pricing; therefore, in general, the performance of China's non ferrous metal industry shows, in the last10years, there has been certain improvement on the industry overall level of profit on sales, but the enterprises' sales profit level is low and their absolute performance level is not high.
Taking15non ferrous metal enterprises (groups) which topped the sales ranking during2005to2009as samples, this study built panel data to test the industry structure-efficiency-performance relations theoretical hypotheses. The result shows, the Harvard market forces doctrine and mixed market force/efficiency structure hypothesis don't work China's non ferrous metal industry, whose performance is based on the enterprises' efficiency. As in industry economics, enterprises' performance doesn't equal industry performance, we studied the data from2002, and2005-2009to re-explore the relations between industry concentration and industry performance, and used C-D-W method to estimate the market forces of China's non ferrous metal industry in respective years. The result shows China's non ferrous metal industry force is weak.
In respect of vertical integration of the industry chain, we explored non ferrous metal industry vertical value morphological characteristics. Through the analysis, we found out mining and ore-dressing are the key links of the industry chain, smelting and rolling are the dominant links of the industry chain. This study combined non ferrous metal industry characteristics with transaction cost economics and the theory of enterprise organizational capacity. Around the upstream and downstream links of non ferrous metal industry value chain, the study identified the benefits and costs of the vertical integration of various links, explored the regulatory role of enterprise organizational capacity factor on costs and benefits, and based on the comparison between cost and benefit, the study gives out suggestions on appropriate vertical integration models.
This study conducted case studies on the relations between non ferrous metal industry vertical integration and performance taking examples of the famous foreign and Chinese non ferrous metal companies such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, and CHINALCO. Taking the samples of the data collected from the listed Chinese non ferrous metal companies in2011, the study built a multiple linear regression model to conduct an empirical research on the relations between non ferrous metal enterprise vertical integration and performance. The regression result shows, the degree of the vertical integration of the listed non ferrous metal enterprises has a significant positive impact on their performance; the company's vertical integration experience and scale play a positive regulatory role in the vertical integration strategy affecting its operating performance; though the company's technical innovation capacity plays a positive role in the performance of vertical integration, the influence is not significant.
This study calculated the discrete indicators of the industrial space concentration at regional level of China's non ferrous metal industry, explored the regional imbalance between supply and demand. The study focused on4important minerals such as copper, aluminum, lead and zinc. Based on their regression models,3of those4non ferrous metals industry distribution have resources-relying feature. Considering the demand for globally moving non ferrous metal resources and environment friendly development, this study thinks, there is certain rationality for the future industry distribution to go more along the coastal harbors and that is the future trend of development.
This study conducted influencing factors analysis on various regions on their mineral resources, energy, water resources, transportation, market demand, environment capacity, the demand and utilization of foreign resources etc. and the enterprise competition situation within each region, and based on that, we came out some ideas of the spatial integration of non ferrous metal industry.
引文
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