城市规模、结构与碳排放
|
摘要
城市是人口集聚和产业集聚的结果,城市化进而又是人口和产业集聚的推动力。我国改革开放以来人口城市化速度举世瞩目,城市规模迅速扩张和空间结构剧烈重构。在这个过程中既有政府的推动也有市场的指导,既有产业集聚的影响也有劳动力素质的提高,既有交通系统发展的制约也有工业结构调整的作用。依据美国城市地理学家诺瑟姆的城镇化阶段性规律,未来十年我国人口城市化加快,城市空间将快速扩张。城市化过程中的碳排放问题引起广泛关注,研究城市规模与空间结构对碳排放的影响及其作用机制对我国实现低碳城市化具有非常重要的现实意义。
本文基于新经济地理学、内生增长理论等理论研究结论,结合我国城市化的实际过程,利用城市层面数据,对城市规模和空间结构演变过程中碳排放变动机制进行实证研究。本研究主要围绕城市化过程中城市规模扩张与空间结构形态演变分别对碳排放的影响机制分析了政府与市场在此过程中的作用。在总结前人理论及实证研究结果的基础上,首先分析我国政府主导的城市化进程中,城市规模与空间结构对碳排放的影响(第三章),揭示政府政策对城市规模与空间结构及其对碳排放的影响；其次,分析城市规模扩张过程中产业集聚与人力资本积累对城市规模与碳排放的影响机制(第四章)；再次,分析城市空间结构形态演化过程中交通系统与产业结构变动的作用,并分析了城市空间结构通过这两个途径对碳排放的影响(第五章)；最后,在总结全文的基础上提出相关政策建议。
本文通过实证研究发现：
1.政府人为扭曲要素分配机制和控制人口流动的这种城市化模式既低效率又不可持续。城市人口数量上升、经济增长和空间扩张都会引起城市碳排放显著上升,在规模扩张的同时,由于政府土地财政推动城市规模扩张与户籍制度导致空间结构形态分散化从而空间利用效率下降,对城市碳排放产生双向推动力,个是能源需求上升导致的规模扩大效应,另一个是能源利用效率下降引发的扩大效应,二者叠加在一起共同导致城市碳排放上升。
2.人口规模在50万到100万之间的中等城市、人口规模在100万到300万之间的大城市、人口规模在300万到1000万之间的特大城市节能减排的效果好于其他规模等级的城市。大城市和中等规模城市比小城镇能源利用效率高,碳排放低。因此,我们的结论是走低碳城市化之路应该发展大中型城市,着力发展中等规模城市,支持特大型城市。
3.城市规模扩张过程中城市产业集聚度提高,会提高城市能源利用率即单位能源的经济产出上升,从而降低碳排放。城市产业集聚度提高意味着城市专业化水平提高,能够提高劳动生产率,实现资源的集约利用。城市支柱性产业就业比率提高1%,城市碳排放下降8.33%-10.57%。能源利用效率提高1%减少城市碳排放1.23%到1.42%。
4.技术进步对节能减排具有长期性、滞后性。当期的技术创新产生新的生产工艺、知识,通过学习效应和外溢效应,从一个地区向另一个地区扩散,从一个行业向其他行业扩散,先进技术的广泛应用最终促进经济系统整体生产效率的提高。前一期的碳排放强度下降10%,即单位GDP的碳排放量下降10%会导致当期的碳排放强度下降7%左右。
5.交通运输发展水平对现代城市空间结构及碳排放形成了重要影响。公共气电车客运总数提高1%可以使交通部门碳排放总量下降0.385%。优化交通模式对未来中国交通运输系统,特别是城市客运的能源需求起着非常积极的作用。交通系统改善通过两个渠道对交通部门碳排放的影响。一个渠道是公路、交通设施等改善使得引致性交通需求上升,愿意出行的人口数量上升,使得交通碳排放上升,因此公共营运气电车数量上升1%,交通运输部门碳排放最低上升0.7%最高上升1.45%；与此同时,交通系统的改善使得居民出行时可以选择更加快捷的出行线路和低碳出行方式,由此降低居民、商品在运输中的能源消耗。
6.产业结构对城市能源利用效率具有决定性作用,产业结构也对城市工业碳排放产生显著影响,尤其是产业结构长期影响更加稳健。城市经济发展过程中,当期产业结构中第二产业比重提高一个百分点会引起城市工业碳排放增长1.7%到3%,而前期的产业结构对当期的工业碳排放作用大于当期产业结构的作用。在其他条件不变时,前期第二产业比重提高1个百分点会引致当期工业碳排放提高6%。
我国走低碳城市化之路必须寻求最优的低碳城市规模与城市结构形态,多管齐下才能保证经济增长的同时实现碳排放下降的又好又快的发展。
Urbans burn from the agglomeration of population and industries which is pushed by urbanization. The speed of China's urbanization since the reform and opening-up policy is attractive to all of the world, during which the urban size and spatial structure suffered large change. The sprawl and evolution of China's cities due to government's intervening, market's distribution, influence of industrial agglomeration and improvement of labor force. The spatial structure are also influenced by the traffic system and industrial structure. Under the urbanization rule found by Northam, China's urbanization will speed up in the following ten years and city space will expand at a fast rate. Carbon emission during the urbanization is attracting more and more researchers' attention. The research on optimal low-carbon city size and spatial structure will be helpful to China's low-carbon urbanization.
Based on the theory and conclusion of new economic geography and endogenous growth, this paper studies the effects of city size expansion and spatial evolution on carbon emission using China's city statistic data and analyses the effect of local government. We focuses on the mechnism of urban sprawl and spatial restructuring and studies government and market influence on caibon emission. After the review of relevent papers(chapter2), we analyses the government function on poplation migration and spatial expansion(chapter3). We studies the mechnism between city size and carbon emission(chapter4). In chapter5, we analyses the effect of traffic system and industry structure change on urban spatial structure and carbon emission. In last chapter, we draw a conclusion:
1. the urbanization during which the factors are distorted and population migration are controled by the government is both inefficient and unsustainable. City's population rising-up, economic growth and spatial sprawl will increase energy use and carbon emission. When population agglomeration in cities, the land finance transform too much farm land into construction land and hukou system limits the population migration, which decreases the space efficiency. The low-efficiency space structure wastes energy and increases carbon emission.
2. the cities with0.5-10million population can be more low-carbon than the other scale population in China. We find that the large(1-10million population)and middle(0.5-1million population) size cities are more energy-efficient than small(with less than0.5million population) and super large(with over10million population) cities. China should develop more large and middle size cities.
3. the industry agglomeration can improve energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emission. The rise of agglomeration degree can makes the cities more specialized, which can improve the productivity. This will increase energy efficiency of urban economic system. The sporting industy propotion rise up by1%, the caibon emission will decrease by8.33%-10.57%. the energy efficiency rises up by1%, the carbon emission will decrease by1.23%-1.42%.
4. the effect of techology improvement on carbon emission lasts long and retardant. The technology improvements happening in this term will affect the carbon emission of the following terms. Due to the learning by doing effect and spillover effect, technology improvement will sprawed between the industries and areas. The10%decrease of carbon density happened in last term can reduce carbon density of this term by7%.
5.the traffic system has important effect on the spatial struture and carbon emission. Optimalization of traffic system can make urban space structure more reasonable and low-carbon. The development of traffic system has two kinds of effects on energy use. On one hand, the optimalization of public transport can promote economic growth and drive up energy use. On the other hand, optimalization of public transport can rise energy efficiency and save energy.
6. industry structure has dicisive role on energy efficiency, the spatial structure and industry structure can influence industry carbon emission. The industry structure has long-term and robust effect on carbon emission. The second industry proportion rises up by1%and industry carbon emission increases1.7%-3%.
本文基于新经济地理学、内生增长理论等理论研究结论,结合我国城市化的实际过程,利用城市层面数据,对城市规模和空间结构演变过程中碳排放变动机制进行实证研究。本研究主要围绕城市化过程中城市规模扩张与空间结构形态演变分别对碳排放的影响机制分析了政府与市场在此过程中的作用。在总结前人理论及实证研究结果的基础上,首先分析我国政府主导的城市化进程中,城市规模与空间结构对碳排放的影响(第三章),揭示政府政策对城市规模与空间结构及其对碳排放的影响；其次,分析城市规模扩张过程中产业集聚与人力资本积累对城市规模与碳排放的影响机制(第四章)；再次,分析城市空间结构形态演化过程中交通系统与产业结构变动的作用,并分析了城市空间结构通过这两个途径对碳排放的影响(第五章)；最后,在总结全文的基础上提出相关政策建议。
本文通过实证研究发现：
1.政府人为扭曲要素分配机制和控制人口流动的这种城市化模式既低效率又不可持续。城市人口数量上升、经济增长和空间扩张都会引起城市碳排放显著上升,在规模扩张的同时,由于政府土地财政推动城市规模扩张与户籍制度导致空间结构形态分散化从而空间利用效率下降,对城市碳排放产生双向推动力,个是能源需求上升导致的规模扩大效应,另一个是能源利用效率下降引发的扩大效应,二者叠加在一起共同导致城市碳排放上升。
2.人口规模在50万到100万之间的中等城市、人口规模在100万到300万之间的大城市、人口规模在300万到1000万之间的特大城市节能减排的效果好于其他规模等级的城市。大城市和中等规模城市比小城镇能源利用效率高,碳排放低。因此,我们的结论是走低碳城市化之路应该发展大中型城市,着力发展中等规模城市,支持特大型城市。
3.城市规模扩张过程中城市产业集聚度提高,会提高城市能源利用率即单位能源的经济产出上升,从而降低碳排放。城市产业集聚度提高意味着城市专业化水平提高,能够提高劳动生产率,实现资源的集约利用。城市支柱性产业就业比率提高1%,城市碳排放下降8.33%-10.57%。能源利用效率提高1%减少城市碳排放1.23%到1.42%。
4.技术进步对节能减排具有长期性、滞后性。当期的技术创新产生新的生产工艺、知识,通过学习效应和外溢效应,从一个地区向另一个地区扩散,从一个行业向其他行业扩散,先进技术的广泛应用最终促进经济系统整体生产效率的提高。前一期的碳排放强度下降10%,即单位GDP的碳排放量下降10%会导致当期的碳排放强度下降7%左右。
5.交通运输发展水平对现代城市空间结构及碳排放形成了重要影响。公共气电车客运总数提高1%可以使交通部门碳排放总量下降0.385%。优化交通模式对未来中国交通运输系统,特别是城市客运的能源需求起着非常积极的作用。交通系统改善通过两个渠道对交通部门碳排放的影响。一个渠道是公路、交通设施等改善使得引致性交通需求上升,愿意出行的人口数量上升,使得交通碳排放上升,因此公共营运气电车数量上升1%,交通运输部门碳排放最低上升0.7%最高上升1.45%；与此同时,交通系统的改善使得居民出行时可以选择更加快捷的出行线路和低碳出行方式,由此降低居民、商品在运输中的能源消耗。
6.产业结构对城市能源利用效率具有决定性作用,产业结构也对城市工业碳排放产生显著影响,尤其是产业结构长期影响更加稳健。城市经济发展过程中,当期产业结构中第二产业比重提高一个百分点会引起城市工业碳排放增长1.7%到3%,而前期的产业结构对当期的工业碳排放作用大于当期产业结构的作用。在其他条件不变时,前期第二产业比重提高1个百分点会引致当期工业碳排放提高6%。
我国走低碳城市化之路必须寻求最优的低碳城市规模与城市结构形态,多管齐下才能保证经济增长的同时实现碳排放下降的又好又快的发展。
Urbans burn from the agglomeration of population and industries which is pushed by urbanization. The speed of China's urbanization since the reform and opening-up policy is attractive to all of the world, during which the urban size and spatial structure suffered large change. The sprawl and evolution of China's cities due to government's intervening, market's distribution, influence of industrial agglomeration and improvement of labor force. The spatial structure are also influenced by the traffic system and industrial structure. Under the urbanization rule found by Northam, China's urbanization will speed up in the following ten years and city space will expand at a fast rate. Carbon emission during the urbanization is attracting more and more researchers' attention. The research on optimal low-carbon city size and spatial structure will be helpful to China's low-carbon urbanization.
Based on the theory and conclusion of new economic geography and endogenous growth, this paper studies the effects of city size expansion and spatial evolution on carbon emission using China's city statistic data and analyses the effect of local government. We focuses on the mechnism of urban sprawl and spatial restructuring and studies government and market influence on caibon emission. After the review of relevent papers(chapter2), we analyses the government function on poplation migration and spatial expansion(chapter3). We studies the mechnism between city size and carbon emission(chapter4). In chapter5, we analyses the effect of traffic system and industry structure change on urban spatial structure and carbon emission. In last chapter, we draw a conclusion:
1. the urbanization during which the factors are distorted and population migration are controled by the government is both inefficient and unsustainable. City's population rising-up, economic growth and spatial sprawl will increase energy use and carbon emission. When population agglomeration in cities, the land finance transform too much farm land into construction land and hukou system limits the population migration, which decreases the space efficiency. The low-efficiency space structure wastes energy and increases carbon emission.
2. the cities with0.5-10million population can be more low-carbon than the other scale population in China. We find that the large(1-10million population)and middle(0.5-1million population) size cities are more energy-efficient than small(with less than0.5million population) and super large(with over10million population) cities. China should develop more large and middle size cities.
3. the industry agglomeration can improve energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emission. The rise of agglomeration degree can makes the cities more specialized, which can improve the productivity. This will increase energy efficiency of urban economic system. The sporting industy propotion rise up by1%, the caibon emission will decrease by8.33%-10.57%. the energy efficiency rises up by1%, the carbon emission will decrease by1.23%-1.42%.
4. the effect of techology improvement on carbon emission lasts long and retardant. The technology improvements happening in this term will affect the carbon emission of the following terms. Due to the learning by doing effect and spillover effect, technology improvement will sprawed between the industries and areas. The10%decrease of carbon density happened in last term can reduce carbon density of this term by7%.
5.the traffic system has important effect on the spatial struture and carbon emission. Optimalization of traffic system can make urban space structure more reasonable and low-carbon. The development of traffic system has two kinds of effects on energy use. On one hand, the optimalization of public transport can promote economic growth and drive up energy use. On the other hand, optimalization of public transport can rise energy efficiency and save energy.
6. industry structure has dicisive role on energy efficiency, the spatial structure and industry structure can influence industry carbon emission. The industry structure has long-term and robust effect on carbon emission. The second industry proportion rises up by1%and industry carbon emission increases1.7%-3%.
引文
[1]Nordhaus W D. Economic aspects of global warming in a post-Copenhagen environment[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.2010(6).
[2]Ian W H P, Roberton C W I, Lawrence H G. When can carbon abatement policies increase welfare? The fundamental role of distorted factor markets[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.1999,37(1):52.
[3]T Muneera, A N Celikb, N C. Sustainable transport solution for a medium-sized town in Turkey —A case study[J]. Sustainable Cities and Society.2011,1(1):29-37.
[4]世界观察研究所,全球环境研究所.世界报告(2007我们城市的未来)[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社，2007.
[5]Ipcc. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report[R].,2007.
[6]张换兆,郝寿义.城市空间扩张与土地集约利用[J].经济地理.2008(3)：419-424.
[7]Gupta B, Pal D, Sarkar J. Spatial Cournot competition and agglomeration in a model of location choice[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1997,27(3):261-282.
[8]Evans A W. A Pure Theory of City Size in an Industrial Economy[J]. Urban Studies.1972,9: 49-77.
[9]Webber M M. The urban place and nonplace urban realm, in Webber M.M.et al.(eds.)Exploration into Urban Structure[M]. Philadelphia:University of Pennsylvania Press,1964.
[10]Bourne LS. Internal Structure of the City[M]. New York:Oxford University Press,1971.
[11]李全林,马晓冬,朱传耿,等.基于GIS的盐城城市空间结构演化分析[J].地理与地理信息科学.2007(3)：69-73.
[12]许抄军.基于可持续城市化的我国城市规模、体系及实现机制研究[D].湖南大学,2008.
[13]Krugman P. History versus Expectations[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics.1991,106: 651-667.
[14]Krugman P. Increasing returns and economic geography[J]. Journal of Political Economy.1991, 99:483-499.
[15]Schultz T W. Investment in human capital [J]. American economic review.1961,51:1-17.
[16]Mirrlees J A. The Optimum Town[J]. Swedish Journal of Economics.1972,74:114-135.
[17]Riley J. Gamma Ville: an Optimal Town[J]. Journal of Economic Theory.1973,6:471-482.
[18]Arnott R J, Riley J G. Asymmetrical Production Possibilities, the Social Gains from Inequality and the Optimum Town[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.1977,79:301-311.
[19]Principles of Economics[M]. Macmillan,1920.
[20]J. J. The Economy of Cities[M]. New York:Random House,1969.
[21]Cingano F, Schivardi F. Identifying the sources of local productivity growth[J]. Journal of the European Economic Association.2004(2):720-742.
[22]赵伟,张萃.中国制造业区域集聚与全要素生产率增长[.J].上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版).2008(5)：52-56.
[23]Ciccone A, Hall R E. Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity[J]. The American Economic Review.1996,86(1):54-70.
[24]Duranton G, Puga D. Microfoundations of urban agglomeration economies[M]. Handbook of Urban and Regional Economics, Henderson J V, Thisse J F, New York:North Holland,2004:4.
[25]石灵云,刘修岩.地方化经济、城市化经济与劳动生产率一—基于中国制造业四位数行业的实证研究[J].南方经济.2008(3)：43-51.
[26]Palivos T, Wang P. Spatial agglomeration and endogenous growth[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1996,26(6):645-669.
[27]Glaeser E L. Why Does Schooling Generate Economic Growth?[J]. Economics Letters.1994,44: 333-337.
[28]Lucas R E, Others. On the mechanics of economic development[J]. Journal of monetary economics.1988,22(1):3-42.
[29]Fu S. Smart Cafe Cities:Testing human capital externalities in the Boston metropolitan area[J]. Journal of Urban Economics.2007,61:86-111.
[30]Abdel-Rahman H M. When do cities specialize in production?[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1996,26:1-22.
[31]藤田昌久,蒂斯雅克-弗朗科斯.集聚经济学[Z].刘峰等.成都：西南财经大学出版社,2004.
[32]Henderson J V. Optimum City Size:The External Diseconomy Question[J]. Journal of Political Economy.1974,82(2):373-388.
[33]赵红军.市场经济条件下我国城市化进程中的政府角色再定位——从交易效率视角的考察[J].世界经济情况.2005(22)：20-23.
[34]Arnott R J. Unpriced transport congestion [J]. Journal of Economic Theory.1979,21(2):294-316.
[35]陈明森,李金顺.中国城市化进程的政府推动与市场推动[J].东南学术.2004(4)：30-36.
[36]Henderson J. Vernon.中国的城市化：面临的政策问题与选择[J].城市发展研究.2007(4)：32-41.
[37]Robert M. Solow. Congestion Cost and the Use of Land for Streets[J]. Bell Journal of Economics. 1973,4(2):602-618.
[38]张应武.基于经济增长视角的中国最优城市规模实证研究[J].上海经济研究.2009(5)：31-38.
[39]许抄军,罗能生,吕渭济.基于资源消耗的中国城市规模研究[J].经济学家.2008(4)：56-64.
[40]肖文,王平.外部规模经济、拥挤效应与城市发展：一个新经济地理学城市模型[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)预印本.2011(1)：74-85.
[41]Kanemoto Y. Theories of Urban Externalities[M]. Amsterdam:North-Holland,1980.
[42]Masahisa F, Krugman P, Mori T. On the Evolution of Hierarchical Urban Systems[J]. European Economic Review.1999,43:209-251.
[43]Berliant M, Wang P. Dynamic urban models:agglomeration and growth[J]. Urban Dynamics and Growth:Advances in Urban Economics, Elsevier Science, North-Holland, Amsterdam.2004:531-581.
[44]Russwurm L H. urban fringe and urban shadou[M].1975.
[45]Breheny M. The Compact City and Transport Energy Consumption[J]. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers.1995,20(1):81-101.
[46]陈海燕,贾倍思.紧凑还是分散?一—对中国城市在加速城市化进程中发展方向的思考[J].城市规划.2006(5)：61-69.
[47]韩笋生,秦波.借鉴”紧凑城市”理念,实现我国城市的可持续发展[J].国外城市规划.2004(6)：23-27.
[48]吴正红,冯长春,杨子江.紧凑城市发展中的土地利用理念[J].城市问题.2012(1)：9-14.
[49]周韵.紧凑型城市对缓减城市规模报酬递减效应的作用分析[J].现代经济信息.2009(10)：49.
[50]钱文荣.中国城市土地资源配置中的市场失灵、政府缺陷与用地规模过度扩张[J].经济地理.2001(4)：456-460.
[51]钱忠好.土地征用：均衡与非均衡——对现行中国土地征用制度的经济分析[J].管理世界.2004(12)：50-59.
[52]谭荣,曲福田.中国农地非农化与农地资源保护：从两难到双赢[J].管理世界.2006(12)：50-59.
[53]周黎安.晋升博弈中政府官员的激励与合作——兼论我国地方保护主义和重复建设问题长期存在的原因[J].经济研究.2004(6)：33-40.
[54]陶然,徐志刚.城市化、农地制度与迁移人口社会保障——一个转轨中发展的大国视角与政策选择[J].经济研究.2005(12)：45-56.
[55]周其仁.农地产权与征地制度——中国城市化面临的重大选择[J].经济学(季刊).2004(4)：193-210.
[56]陆大道.权威专家直陈城市化”大跃进”隐忧[N].南方周末.
[57]韦亚平,赵民,汪劲柏.紧凑城市发展与土地利用绩效的测度——“屠能-阿隆索”模型的扩展与应用[J].城市规划学刊.2008(3)：32-40.
[58]Anas A, Arnott R, Small K A. Urban Spatial Structure[J]. Journal of Economic Literature.1998, 36(3):1426-1464.
[59]徐琳,刘晨阳.城市空间结构与城市交通互动关系及启示[J].山西建筑.2008(1)：37-38.
[60]王成新,梅青,姚士谋,等.交通模式对城市空间形态影响的实证分析——以南京都市圈城市为例[J].地理与地理信息科学.2004(3)：74-77.
[61]单刚,王晓原,王凤群.城市交通与城市空间结构演变[J].城市问题.2007(9)：37-42.
[62]Tajibaeva L, Haight R G, Polasky S. A discrete-space urban model with environmental amenities[J]. Resource and Energy Economics.2008,30:170-196.
[63]Wheaton W C. Land use and density in cities with congestion[J]. Journal of Urban Economics. 1998,43(2):258-272.
[64]薛领,杨开忠.复杂性科学理论与区域空间演化模拟研究[J].地理研究.2002(1)：79-88.
[65]Fujita M, Krugman P. When is the economy monocentric?:von Thunen and Chamberlin unified[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1995,25(4):505-528.
[66]王春兰,杨上广.大城市人口空间演变研究述评[J].城市问题.2009(7)：33-38.
[67]王世营,蔡军.产业集群对中小城市空间形态的影响研究——以长江三角洲地区中小城市为例[J].城市规划.2006(7)：42-47.
[68]马吴斌,褚劲风,郭振东.上海产业集聚区发展与城市空间结构优化研究[J].上海城市规划.2008(6)：38-41.
[69]Fujita M, Mori T. Structural stability and evolution of urban systems[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1997,27:399-442.
[70]张颖,王群,王万茂.中国产业结构与用地结构相互关系的实证研究[J].中国土地科学.2007(2)：4-11.
[71]张海兵,鞠正山,张凤荣.中国社会经济结构与土地利用结构变化的相关性分析[J].中国土地科学.2007(2)：12-17.
[72]沙振镇.产业结构与城市空间形态关系初探[J].规划师.1996(3)：22-30.
[73]张志斌,李雪梅.城市产业结构调整与空间结构优化的研究——以兰州市为例[J].干旱区资源与环境.2007(12)：1-5.
[74]彭文甫,周介铭,罗怀良,等.土地利用变化与城市空气环境效应的关系[J].水土保持研究.2010(4)：87-91.
[75]王家庭,郭帅.生态环境约束对城市化的影响：基于最佳城市规模模型的理论研究[J].学习与实践.2011(1)：5-17.
[76]赵红军.交易效率、城市规模扩张及未来策略[J].社会科学辑刊.2005(6)：93-97.
[77]张绍敏.不同规模城市土地利用效率的比较研究[D].同济大学,2008.
[78]方先知.土地利用效率测度的指标体系与方法研究[J].系统工程.2004(12)：22-26.
[79]邱士可,王莉.城市规模与土地集约利用研究[J].地域研究与开发.2010(3)：110-113.
[80]杨学成,汪冬梅.我国不同规模城市的经济效率和经济成长力的实证研究[J].管理世界.2002(3)：9-12.
[81]程俐骢.城市规模约束：城市化可持续发展的新视角[J].同济大学学报(社会科学版).2009(2)：23-29.
[82]Virkanen J. Effect of urbanization on metal deposition in the bay of Toolonlahti, Southern Finland[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin.1998,36(9):729-738.
[83]de Leeuw F A A M, Moussiopoulos N, Sahm P, et al. Urban air quality in larger conurbations in the European Union[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software.2001,16:399-414.
[84]杨海生,贾佳,周永章,等.贸易、外商直接投资、经济增长与环境污染[J].中国人口.资源与环境.2005(3)：99-103.
[85]徐颂：珠江三角洲产业结构调整与生态环境关系[J].环境保护.1998(7).
[86]蔺雪芹,方创琳.城市群地区产业集聚的生态环境效应研究进展[J].地理科学进展.2008(3)：110-118.
[87]Verhoef E T, Nijkamp P. Externalities in urban sustain ability:Environmental versus localization-type agglomeration externalities in a general spatial equilibrium model of a single-sector monocentric industrial city[J]. Ecological Economics.2002,40(2):157-179.
[88]王海宁,陈媛媛.产业集聚效应与工业能源效率研究——基于中国25个工业行业的实证分析[J].财经研究.2010(9)：69-79.
[89]郑思齐,燚霍.低碳城市空间结构：从私家车出行角度的研究[J].世界经济文汇.2010(6)：50-65.
[90]I. O. Urbanization and Environmental Quality[M]. Dordrecht:Kluwer,1982.
[91]Junjie W, Andrew J P. The influence of public open space on urban spatial structure[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.2003,46(2):288.
[92]赵荣钦,黄贤金.基于能源消费的江苏省土地利用碳排放与碳足迹[J].地理研究.2010(9)：1639-1649.
[93]刘纪远,张增祥,庄大方,等.20世纪90年代中国土地利用变化时空特征及其成因分析[J].地理研究.2003(1)：1-12.
[94]Ligmann-Zielinska A, Church R, Jankowski P. Sustainable Urban Land Use Allocation With Spatial Optimization:The 8th International Conference on Geocomputation[Z]. University of Michigan: Eastern Michigan University,2005.
[95]Stone Jr. B. Urban sprawl and air quality in large US cities[J]. Journal of Environmental Management.2008,86(4):688-698.
[96]Barton H. Local global planning[J]. The Planner.1990,26(october):12-15.
[97]Smith V K, Huang J C. Hedonic Models and Air Pollution:Twenty-Five Years and Counting[J].
[98]仇保兴.我国城市发展模式转型趋势——低碳生态城市[J].现代城市.2010(1)：1-6.
[99]刘永亮,王丽民.中国最优城市规模实证研究[J].商业时代.2010(16)：134-136.
[100]Parikh J, Shukla V. Urbanization, energy use and greenhouseeffects in economic development: Results from a cross-national study of developing countries [J]. Global Environment Change.1995,5(2):87-103.
[101]N B. Another Look at Population and Global Warming:Population, Health and Nutrition Policy Research[J]. Working Paper.1992.
[102]Dietz T, Rosa E A. Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology[J]. Human Ecology Review.1994,1:277-300.
[103]Lonngren K, Bai E. On the global warming problem due to carbon dioxide[J]. Energy Policy. 2008,36(4):1567.
[104]Jiang L, Hardee K. How do recent demographic trend matter to climate change?[J], Population Action International Working Paper.2009.
[105]王锋,吴丽华,杨超.中国经济发展中碳排放增长的驱动因素研究[J].经济研究.2010(2)：123-136.
[106]York R, Rosa E A, Dietz T. STIRPAT, IP AT and lmPACT analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts[J]. Ecological Economics.2003,46:351-365.
[107]Shi A. The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions,1975-1996 evidence from pooled cross-country data[J]. Ecological Economics.2003,44:29-42.
[108]Satterthwaite D. The implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change[J]. Environment and Urbanization.2009,21(2):545.
[109]彭希哲,钱焱.试论消费压力人口与可持续发展--人口学研究新概念与方法的尝试[J].中国人口科学.2001(5)：1-9.
[110]Wenying C. The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China:findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling[J]. Energy Policy.2005,33(7):885.
[111]周勇.中国城市化进程中的非农人口转化与产业转化的均衡调整[J].学术研究.2008(9)：49-54.
[112]Glaeser E, Kahn M. The greenness of cities:Carbon dioxide emissions and urban development[J]. Journal of Urban Economics.2010,67(3):404.
[113]Zheng S, Wang R, Glaeser E, et al. The Greenness of China:Household Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Urban Development[J]. SSRN Working Paper Series.2010.
[114]Kahn M E. URBAN POLICY EFFECTS ON CARBON MITIGATION[J]. NBER WORKING PAPER.2010:w16131.
[115]Fong W, Matsumoto H, Lun Y. Application of System Dynamics model as decision making tool in urban planning process toward stabilizing carbon dioxide emissions from cities[J]. Building and Environment.2009,44:1528-1537.
[116]潘海啸.面向低碳的城市空间结构——城市交通与土地使用的新模式[J].城市发展研究.2010(1)：40-45.
[117]顾朝林.低碳城市规划发展模式[J].城乡建设.2009(11)：71-72.
[118]庄贵阳.低碳经济引领世界经济发展方向[J].世界环境.2008(2)：34-36.
[119]陆大道.我国的城镇化进程与空间扩张[J].中国城市经济.2007(10)：14-17.
[120]叶裕民.中国城市化的制度障碍与制度创新[J].中国人民大学学报.2001(5)：32-38.
[121]曲福田,高艳梅,姜海.我国土地管理政策：理论命题与机制转变[J].管理世界.2005(4)：40-47.
[122]吴耀.财政能力,城乡迁移与城市化——政府主导模式下的城市化发展[J].西北工业大学学报(社会科学版).20 1 0(2)：33-38.
[123]刘青海.城市人口密度、国内市场规模与就业增长[J].重庆社会科学.2009(9)：82-84.
[124]Gaigne C, Riou S, Thisse J. Are compact cities environmentally friendly?[Z].2010.
[125]林毅夫,蔡防,李周.中国的奇迹：发展战略与经济改革[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994.
[126]何晓萍,刘希颖,林艳苹.中国城市化进程中的电力需求预测[J].经济研究.2009(1)：118-130.
[127]陈诗一.能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展[J].经济研究.2009(4)：41-55.
[128]杨开忠,谢燮.中国城市投入产出有效性的数据包络分析[J].地理学与国土研究.2002(3)：45-47.
[129]朱莉芬,黄季煜.城镇化对耕地影响的研究[J].经济研究.2007(2)：137-145.
[130]蔡防,都阳,王美艳.户籍制度与劳动力市场保护[J].经济研究.2001(12)：41-49.
[131]何英华.户籍制度松紧程度的一个衡量[J].经济学(季刊).2004(s1)：99-124.
[132]Beck N, Katz J N. What to Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data[J]. American Political Science Review.1995,89(3):634-647.
[133]王美艳,蔡昉.户籍制度改革的历程与展望[J].广东社会科学.2008(6)：19-26.
[134]林伯强,孙传旺.如何在保障中国经济增长前提下完成碳减排目标[J].中国社会科学.2011(1)：64-76.
[135]王元京.走“空间节约”之路——不同资源配置、能源消耗模式的差异给我们的启示[J].经济理论与经济管理.2006(12)：16-20.
[136]M F, G G. Urban Spatial Structure and Productivity Growth in the Manufacturing Sector of Cities[J]. Journal of Urban Economics.1988,23:60-70.
[137]Tabuchi T. Urban agglomeration economies in a Linear City[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1986,16(3):421-436.
[138]杨波,朱道才,景治中.城市化的阶段特征与我国城市化道路的选择[J].上海经济研究.2006(2)：34-39.
[139]王小鲁.中国经济增长的可持续性与制度变革[J].经济研究.2000(7)：3-15.
[140]Hoover EM. Spatial price discrimination[J]. Review of Economic Studies.1937,4(3):182-191.
[141]Segal D. Are there returns to scale in city size?[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics.1976, 58(3):339-350.
[142]Ronald L M. Agglomeration economies:Are they exaggerated by industrial aggregation?[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1998,28(2):199-211.
[143]范剑勇.产业集聚与地区间劳动生产率差异[J].经济研究.2006(11)：72-81.
[144]Fujita M, Thisse J. Economics of Agglomeration[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2002.
[145]傅十和,洪俊杰.企业规模、城市规模与集聚经济——对中国制造业企业普查数据的实证分析[J].经济研究.2008(11)：112-125.
[146]Nelson R, Phelps E. Investment in humans, technological diffusion, and economic growth[J]. American Economic Review.,51(2):69-75.
[147]Romer D. A Simple General Equilibrium Version of the Baumol-Tobin Model[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics.1986,101(4):663-685.
[148]Lundvall B, Johnson B. Closing the institutional gap?[J]. Revue d'Economie Industrielle.,59(1): 111-123.
[149]Papageorgiou C. Technology Adoption, Human Capital, and Growth Theory[J]. Review of Development Economics.2002,6(3):351-368.
[150]Caselli F, Coleman W J. The U.S. Technology Frontier[J]. American Economic Review.2002, 92(2):148-152.
[151]Griffith R, Redding S, Simpson H. Foreign Ownership and Productivity:New Evidence from the Service Sector and the R&D Lab[J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy.2004,20(3):440-456.
[152]Bronzini R, Piselli P. Determinants of long-run regional productivity with geographical spillovers: The role of R&D, human capital and public infrastructure[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics. 2009,39(2):187-199.
[153]赖明勇,张新,彭水军,等.经济增长的源泉：人力资本、研究开发与技术外溢[J].中国社会科学.2005(2)：32-46.
[154]Goldin C, Katz L F. The shaping of higher education in the United States and New England[J]. Regional Review.2001,4:5-11.
[155]尹宗成,丁日佳,江激宇.FDI、人力资本、R&D与中国能源效率[J].财贸经济.2008(9)：95-98.
[156]陈军,徐士元.技术进步对中国能源效率的影响：1979—2006[J].科学管理研究.2008(1)：9-13.
[157]黄菁,赖明勇,王华.FDI在中国的技术外溢效应：基于面板数据的考察[J].世界经济研究.2008(10)：48-55.
[158]滕玉华.国际R&D溢出与工业能源效率——基于进口贸易的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题.2010(5)：104-110.
[159]Andersson F, Burgess S M, Lane J. Cities,Matching and the Productivity Gains of Agglomeration[J]. Discussion paper No.4598, CEPR.2004.
[160]Carlino G A, Chatterjee S, Hunt R M. Urban density and the rate of invention[J]. Journal of Urban Economics.2007,61(3):389-419.
[161]Cole M A, Elliott R J R, Wu S. Industrial activity and the environment in China:An industry-level analysis[J]. China Economic Review.2008,19(3):393-408.
[162]Ang J B. CO2 emissions, research and technology transfer in China[J]. Ecological Economics. 2009,68(10):2658-2665.
[163]史丹.我国经济增长过程中能源利用效率的改进[J].经济研究.2002(9)：49-56.
[164]李艳梅,张雷,程晓凌.中国碳排放变化的因素分解与减排途径分析[J].资源科学.2010(2)：218-222.
[165]张丽峰.我国产业结构、能源结构和碳排放关系研究[J].干旱区资源与环境.2011(5)：1-7.
[166]虞义华,郑新业,张莉.经济发展水平、产业结构与碳排放强度——中国省级面板数据分析[J].经济理论与经济管理.2011(3)：72-81.
[167]林伯强,刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放：影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究.2010(8)：66-78.
[168]Poumanyvong P, Kaneko S. Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions[J]. Ecological Economics.2010,70:434-444.
[169]Martinez-Zarzoso I, Maruotti A. The Impact of Urbanization on CO2 Emissions Evidence from Developing Countries[J]. Economics, Ecological.2011,70(7):1344-1353.
[170]Khazzoom J D. Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency Standards for Household Appliances.[J]. Energy Journal.1980,1(4):21-39.
[171]蒋时节,刘贵文,李世蓉.基础设施投资与城市化之间的相关性分析[J].城市发展研究.2005(2)：72-74.
[172]刘修岩.集聚经济、公共基础设施与劳动生产率——来自中国城市动态面板数据的证据[J].财经研究.2010(5)：91-101.
[173]Windmeijer F. A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators[J]. Journal of Econometrics.2005,126(1):25-51.
[174]岳书敬,刘朝明.人力资本与区域全要素生产率分析[J].经济研究.2006(4)：90-96.
[175]Barros V, Grand M. Implications of a dynamic target of greenhouse gases emission reduction: the case of Argentina[J]. Environment and Development Economics.2002,7(3):547.
[176]Krueger A B, Lindahl M. Education for Growth:Why and for Whom?[J]. Journal of Economic Literature.2001,39(4):1101-1136.
[177]Cohen D, Soto M. Growth and human capital:good data, good results[J]. Journal of Economic Growth.2007,12(1):51-76.
[178]Mankiw N G, Romer D, Weil D N. A contribution to the empirics of economic growth[J]. The quarterly journal of economics.1992,107(2):407.
[179]Arellano M, Bover O. Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models[J]. Journal of Econometrics.1995,68(1):29-51.
[180]Ciccone A, Hall R E. Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity[J]. The American Economic Review.1996,86(1):54-70.
[181]朱跃中.未来中国交通运输部门能源发展与碳排放情景分析[J].中国工业经济.2001(12)：30-35.
[182]刘艳军,李诚固,孙迪.城市区域空间结构：系统演化及驱动机制[J].城市规划学刊.2006(6)：73-78.
[183]陈强.北京：高等教育出版社，2010.
[184]林毅夫.后发优势与后发劣势——与杨小凯教授商榷[J].经济学(季刊).2003(3)：989-1004.
[185]Maddison A. Growth and Slowdown in Advanced Capitalist Economies:Techniques of Quantitative Assessment[J]. Journal of Economic Literature.1987,25(2):649-698.
[186]Rostow W W. The Stages of Economic Growth[M]. London:Cambridge University Press,1962.
[187]史丹,张金隆.产业结构变动对能源消费的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理.2003(8)：30-32.
[188]徐萍,吴群,刘勇,等.产业结构优化与土地资源配置——以江苏省南京市为分析对象[J].中国土地.2004(Z1)：75-79.
[189]Arellano M, Bond S. Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations[J]. Review of Economic Studies.1991,58(2):277-297.
[2]Ian W H P, Roberton C W I, Lawrence H G. When can carbon abatement policies increase welfare? The fundamental role of distorted factor markets[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.1999,37(1):52.
[3]T Muneera, A N Celikb, N C. Sustainable transport solution for a medium-sized town in Turkey —A case study[J]. Sustainable Cities and Society.2011,1(1):29-37.
[4]世界观察研究所,全球环境研究所.世界报告(2007我们城市的未来)[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社，2007.
[5]Ipcc. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report[R].,2007.
[6]张换兆,郝寿义.城市空间扩张与土地集约利用[J].经济地理.2008(3)：419-424.
[7]Gupta B, Pal D, Sarkar J. Spatial Cournot competition and agglomeration in a model of location choice[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1997,27(3):261-282.
[8]Evans A W. A Pure Theory of City Size in an Industrial Economy[J]. Urban Studies.1972,9: 49-77.
[9]Webber M M. The urban place and nonplace urban realm, in Webber M.M.et al.(eds.)Exploration into Urban Structure[M]. Philadelphia:University of Pennsylvania Press,1964.
[10]Bourne LS. Internal Structure of the City[M]. New York:Oxford University Press,1971.
[11]李全林,马晓冬,朱传耿,等.基于GIS的盐城城市空间结构演化分析[J].地理与地理信息科学.2007(3)：69-73.
[12]许抄军.基于可持续城市化的我国城市规模、体系及实现机制研究[D].湖南大学,2008.
[13]Krugman P. History versus Expectations[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics.1991,106: 651-667.
[14]Krugman P. Increasing returns and economic geography[J]. Journal of Political Economy.1991, 99:483-499.
[15]Schultz T W. Investment in human capital [J]. American economic review.1961,51:1-17.
[16]Mirrlees J A. The Optimum Town[J]. Swedish Journal of Economics.1972,74:114-135.
[17]Riley J. Gamma Ville: an Optimal Town[J]. Journal of Economic Theory.1973,6:471-482.
[18]Arnott R J, Riley J G. Asymmetrical Production Possibilities, the Social Gains from Inequality and the Optimum Town[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.1977,79:301-311.
[19]Principles of Economics[M]. Macmillan,1920.
[20]J. J. The Economy of Cities[M]. New York:Random House,1969.
[21]Cingano F, Schivardi F. Identifying the sources of local productivity growth[J]. Journal of the European Economic Association.2004(2):720-742.
[22]赵伟,张萃.中国制造业区域集聚与全要素生产率增长[.J].上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版).2008(5)：52-56.
[23]Ciccone A, Hall R E. Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity[J]. The American Economic Review.1996,86(1):54-70.
[24]Duranton G, Puga D. Microfoundations of urban agglomeration economies[M]. Handbook of Urban and Regional Economics, Henderson J V, Thisse J F, New York:North Holland,2004:4.
[25]石灵云,刘修岩.地方化经济、城市化经济与劳动生产率一—基于中国制造业四位数行业的实证研究[J].南方经济.2008(3)：43-51.
[26]Palivos T, Wang P. Spatial agglomeration and endogenous growth[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1996,26(6):645-669.
[27]Glaeser E L. Why Does Schooling Generate Economic Growth?[J]. Economics Letters.1994,44: 333-337.
[28]Lucas R E, Others. On the mechanics of economic development[J]. Journal of monetary economics.1988,22(1):3-42.
[29]Fu S. Smart Cafe Cities:Testing human capital externalities in the Boston metropolitan area[J]. Journal of Urban Economics.2007,61:86-111.
[30]Abdel-Rahman H M. When do cities specialize in production?[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1996,26:1-22.
[31]藤田昌久,蒂斯雅克-弗朗科斯.集聚经济学[Z].刘峰等.成都：西南财经大学出版社,2004.
[32]Henderson J V. Optimum City Size:The External Diseconomy Question[J]. Journal of Political Economy.1974,82(2):373-388.
[33]赵红军.市场经济条件下我国城市化进程中的政府角色再定位——从交易效率视角的考察[J].世界经济情况.2005(22)：20-23.
[34]Arnott R J. Unpriced transport congestion [J]. Journal of Economic Theory.1979,21(2):294-316.
[35]陈明森,李金顺.中国城市化进程的政府推动与市场推动[J].东南学术.2004(4)：30-36.
[36]Henderson J. Vernon.中国的城市化：面临的政策问题与选择[J].城市发展研究.2007(4)：32-41.
[37]Robert M. Solow. Congestion Cost and the Use of Land for Streets[J]. Bell Journal of Economics. 1973,4(2):602-618.
[38]张应武.基于经济增长视角的中国最优城市规模实证研究[J].上海经济研究.2009(5)：31-38.
[39]许抄军,罗能生,吕渭济.基于资源消耗的中国城市规模研究[J].经济学家.2008(4)：56-64.
[40]肖文,王平.外部规模经济、拥挤效应与城市发展：一个新经济地理学城市模型[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)预印本.2011(1)：74-85.
[41]Kanemoto Y. Theories of Urban Externalities[M]. Amsterdam:North-Holland,1980.
[42]Masahisa F, Krugman P, Mori T. On the Evolution of Hierarchical Urban Systems[J]. European Economic Review.1999,43:209-251.
[43]Berliant M, Wang P. Dynamic urban models:agglomeration and growth[J]. Urban Dynamics and Growth:Advances in Urban Economics, Elsevier Science, North-Holland, Amsterdam.2004:531-581.
[44]Russwurm L H. urban fringe and urban shadou[M].1975.
[45]Breheny M. The Compact City and Transport Energy Consumption[J]. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers.1995,20(1):81-101.
[46]陈海燕,贾倍思.紧凑还是分散?一—对中国城市在加速城市化进程中发展方向的思考[J].城市规划.2006(5)：61-69.
[47]韩笋生,秦波.借鉴”紧凑城市”理念,实现我国城市的可持续发展[J].国外城市规划.2004(6)：23-27.
[48]吴正红,冯长春,杨子江.紧凑城市发展中的土地利用理念[J].城市问题.2012(1)：9-14.
[49]周韵.紧凑型城市对缓减城市规模报酬递减效应的作用分析[J].现代经济信息.2009(10)：49.
[50]钱文荣.中国城市土地资源配置中的市场失灵、政府缺陷与用地规模过度扩张[J].经济地理.2001(4)：456-460.
[51]钱忠好.土地征用：均衡与非均衡——对现行中国土地征用制度的经济分析[J].管理世界.2004(12)：50-59.
[52]谭荣,曲福田.中国农地非农化与农地资源保护：从两难到双赢[J].管理世界.2006(12)：50-59.
[53]周黎安.晋升博弈中政府官员的激励与合作——兼论我国地方保护主义和重复建设问题长期存在的原因[J].经济研究.2004(6)：33-40.
[54]陶然,徐志刚.城市化、农地制度与迁移人口社会保障——一个转轨中发展的大国视角与政策选择[J].经济研究.2005(12)：45-56.
[55]周其仁.农地产权与征地制度——中国城市化面临的重大选择[J].经济学(季刊).2004(4)：193-210.
[56]陆大道.权威专家直陈城市化”大跃进”隐忧[N].南方周末.
[57]韦亚平,赵民,汪劲柏.紧凑城市发展与土地利用绩效的测度——“屠能-阿隆索”模型的扩展与应用[J].城市规划学刊.2008(3)：32-40.
[58]Anas A, Arnott R, Small K A. Urban Spatial Structure[J]. Journal of Economic Literature.1998, 36(3):1426-1464.
[59]徐琳,刘晨阳.城市空间结构与城市交通互动关系及启示[J].山西建筑.2008(1)：37-38.
[60]王成新,梅青,姚士谋,等.交通模式对城市空间形态影响的实证分析——以南京都市圈城市为例[J].地理与地理信息科学.2004(3)：74-77.
[61]单刚,王晓原,王凤群.城市交通与城市空间结构演变[J].城市问题.2007(9)：37-42.
[62]Tajibaeva L, Haight R G, Polasky S. A discrete-space urban model with environmental amenities[J]. Resource and Energy Economics.2008,30:170-196.
[63]Wheaton W C. Land use and density in cities with congestion[J]. Journal of Urban Economics. 1998,43(2):258-272.
[64]薛领,杨开忠.复杂性科学理论与区域空间演化模拟研究[J].地理研究.2002(1)：79-88.
[65]Fujita M, Krugman P. When is the economy monocentric?:von Thunen and Chamberlin unified[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1995,25(4):505-528.
[66]王春兰,杨上广.大城市人口空间演变研究述评[J].城市问题.2009(7)：33-38.
[67]王世营,蔡军.产业集群对中小城市空间形态的影响研究——以长江三角洲地区中小城市为例[J].城市规划.2006(7)：42-47.
[68]马吴斌,褚劲风,郭振东.上海产业集聚区发展与城市空间结构优化研究[J].上海城市规划.2008(6)：38-41.
[69]Fujita M, Mori T. Structural stability and evolution of urban systems[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1997,27:399-442.
[70]张颖,王群,王万茂.中国产业结构与用地结构相互关系的实证研究[J].中国土地科学.2007(2)：4-11.
[71]张海兵,鞠正山,张凤荣.中国社会经济结构与土地利用结构变化的相关性分析[J].中国土地科学.2007(2)：12-17.
[72]沙振镇.产业结构与城市空间形态关系初探[J].规划师.1996(3)：22-30.
[73]张志斌,李雪梅.城市产业结构调整与空间结构优化的研究——以兰州市为例[J].干旱区资源与环境.2007(12)：1-5.
[74]彭文甫,周介铭,罗怀良,等.土地利用变化与城市空气环境效应的关系[J].水土保持研究.2010(4)：87-91.
[75]王家庭,郭帅.生态环境约束对城市化的影响：基于最佳城市规模模型的理论研究[J].学习与实践.2011(1)：5-17.
[76]赵红军.交易效率、城市规模扩张及未来策略[J].社会科学辑刊.2005(6)：93-97.
[77]张绍敏.不同规模城市土地利用效率的比较研究[D].同济大学,2008.
[78]方先知.土地利用效率测度的指标体系与方法研究[J].系统工程.2004(12)：22-26.
[79]邱士可,王莉.城市规模与土地集约利用研究[J].地域研究与开发.2010(3)：110-113.
[80]杨学成,汪冬梅.我国不同规模城市的经济效率和经济成长力的实证研究[J].管理世界.2002(3)：9-12.
[81]程俐骢.城市规模约束：城市化可持续发展的新视角[J].同济大学学报(社会科学版).2009(2)：23-29.
[82]Virkanen J. Effect of urbanization on metal deposition in the bay of Toolonlahti, Southern Finland[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin.1998,36(9):729-738.
[83]de Leeuw F A A M, Moussiopoulos N, Sahm P, et al. Urban air quality in larger conurbations in the European Union[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software.2001,16:399-414.
[84]杨海生,贾佳,周永章,等.贸易、外商直接投资、经济增长与环境污染[J].中国人口.资源与环境.2005(3)：99-103.
[85]徐颂：珠江三角洲产业结构调整与生态环境关系[J].环境保护.1998(7).
[86]蔺雪芹,方创琳.城市群地区产业集聚的生态环境效应研究进展[J].地理科学进展.2008(3)：110-118.
[87]Verhoef E T, Nijkamp P. Externalities in urban sustain ability:Environmental versus localization-type agglomeration externalities in a general spatial equilibrium model of a single-sector monocentric industrial city[J]. Ecological Economics.2002,40(2):157-179.
[88]王海宁,陈媛媛.产业集聚效应与工业能源效率研究——基于中国25个工业行业的实证分析[J].财经研究.2010(9)：69-79.
[89]郑思齐,燚霍.低碳城市空间结构：从私家车出行角度的研究[J].世界经济文汇.2010(6)：50-65.
[90]I. O. Urbanization and Environmental Quality[M]. Dordrecht:Kluwer,1982.
[91]Junjie W, Andrew J P. The influence of public open space on urban spatial structure[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.2003,46(2):288.
[92]赵荣钦,黄贤金.基于能源消费的江苏省土地利用碳排放与碳足迹[J].地理研究.2010(9)：1639-1649.
[93]刘纪远,张增祥,庄大方,等.20世纪90年代中国土地利用变化时空特征及其成因分析[J].地理研究.2003(1)：1-12.
[94]Ligmann-Zielinska A, Church R, Jankowski P. Sustainable Urban Land Use Allocation With Spatial Optimization:The 8th International Conference on Geocomputation[Z]. University of Michigan: Eastern Michigan University,2005.
[95]Stone Jr. B. Urban sprawl and air quality in large US cities[J]. Journal of Environmental Management.2008,86(4):688-698.
[96]Barton H. Local global planning[J]. The Planner.1990,26(october):12-15.
[97]Smith V K, Huang J C. Hedonic Models and Air Pollution:Twenty-Five Years and Counting[J].
[98]仇保兴.我国城市发展模式转型趋势——低碳生态城市[J].现代城市.2010(1)：1-6.
[99]刘永亮,王丽民.中国最优城市规模实证研究[J].商业时代.2010(16)：134-136.
[100]Parikh J, Shukla V. Urbanization, energy use and greenhouseeffects in economic development: Results from a cross-national study of developing countries [J]. Global Environment Change.1995,5(2):87-103.
[101]N B. Another Look at Population and Global Warming:Population, Health and Nutrition Policy Research[J]. Working Paper.1992.
[102]Dietz T, Rosa E A. Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology[J]. Human Ecology Review.1994,1:277-300.
[103]Lonngren K, Bai E. On the global warming problem due to carbon dioxide[J]. Energy Policy. 2008,36(4):1567.
[104]Jiang L, Hardee K. How do recent demographic trend matter to climate change?[J], Population Action International Working Paper.2009.
[105]王锋,吴丽华,杨超.中国经济发展中碳排放增长的驱动因素研究[J].经济研究.2010(2)：123-136.
[106]York R, Rosa E A, Dietz T. STIRPAT, IP AT and lmPACT analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts[J]. Ecological Economics.2003,46:351-365.
[107]Shi A. The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions,1975-1996 evidence from pooled cross-country data[J]. Ecological Economics.2003,44:29-42.
[108]Satterthwaite D. The implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change[J]. Environment and Urbanization.2009,21(2):545.
[109]彭希哲,钱焱.试论消费压力人口与可持续发展--人口学研究新概念与方法的尝试[J].中国人口科学.2001(5)：1-9.
[110]Wenying C. The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China:findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling[J]. Energy Policy.2005,33(7):885.
[111]周勇.中国城市化进程中的非农人口转化与产业转化的均衡调整[J].学术研究.2008(9)：49-54.
[112]Glaeser E, Kahn M. The greenness of cities:Carbon dioxide emissions and urban development[J]. Journal of Urban Economics.2010,67(3):404.
[113]Zheng S, Wang R, Glaeser E, et al. The Greenness of China:Household Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Urban Development[J]. SSRN Working Paper Series.2010.
[114]Kahn M E. URBAN POLICY EFFECTS ON CARBON MITIGATION[J]. NBER WORKING PAPER.2010:w16131.
[115]Fong W, Matsumoto H, Lun Y. Application of System Dynamics model as decision making tool in urban planning process toward stabilizing carbon dioxide emissions from cities[J]. Building and Environment.2009,44:1528-1537.
[116]潘海啸.面向低碳的城市空间结构——城市交通与土地使用的新模式[J].城市发展研究.2010(1)：40-45.
[117]顾朝林.低碳城市规划发展模式[J].城乡建设.2009(11)：71-72.
[118]庄贵阳.低碳经济引领世界经济发展方向[J].世界环境.2008(2)：34-36.
[119]陆大道.我国的城镇化进程与空间扩张[J].中国城市经济.2007(10)：14-17.
[120]叶裕民.中国城市化的制度障碍与制度创新[J].中国人民大学学报.2001(5)：32-38.
[121]曲福田,高艳梅,姜海.我国土地管理政策：理论命题与机制转变[J].管理世界.2005(4)：40-47.
[122]吴耀.财政能力,城乡迁移与城市化——政府主导模式下的城市化发展[J].西北工业大学学报(社会科学版).20 1 0(2)：33-38.
[123]刘青海.城市人口密度、国内市场规模与就业增长[J].重庆社会科学.2009(9)：82-84.
[124]Gaigne C, Riou S, Thisse J. Are compact cities environmentally friendly?[Z].2010.
[125]林毅夫,蔡防,李周.中国的奇迹：发展战略与经济改革[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994.
[126]何晓萍,刘希颖,林艳苹.中国城市化进程中的电力需求预测[J].经济研究.2009(1)：118-130.
[127]陈诗一.能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展[J].经济研究.2009(4)：41-55.
[128]杨开忠,谢燮.中国城市投入产出有效性的数据包络分析[J].地理学与国土研究.2002(3)：45-47.
[129]朱莉芬,黄季煜.城镇化对耕地影响的研究[J].经济研究.2007(2)：137-145.
[130]蔡防,都阳,王美艳.户籍制度与劳动力市场保护[J].经济研究.2001(12)：41-49.
[131]何英华.户籍制度松紧程度的一个衡量[J].经济学(季刊).2004(s1)：99-124.
[132]Beck N, Katz J N. What to Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data[J]. American Political Science Review.1995,89(3):634-647.
[133]王美艳,蔡昉.户籍制度改革的历程与展望[J].广东社会科学.2008(6)：19-26.
[134]林伯强,孙传旺.如何在保障中国经济增长前提下完成碳减排目标[J].中国社会科学.2011(1)：64-76.
[135]王元京.走“空间节约”之路——不同资源配置、能源消耗模式的差异给我们的启示[J].经济理论与经济管理.2006(12)：16-20.
[136]M F, G G. Urban Spatial Structure and Productivity Growth in the Manufacturing Sector of Cities[J]. Journal of Urban Economics.1988,23:60-70.
[137]Tabuchi T. Urban agglomeration economies in a Linear City[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1986,16(3):421-436.
[138]杨波,朱道才,景治中.城市化的阶段特征与我国城市化道路的选择[J].上海经济研究.2006(2)：34-39.
[139]王小鲁.中国经济增长的可持续性与制度变革[J].经济研究.2000(7)：3-15.
[140]Hoover EM. Spatial price discrimination[J]. Review of Economic Studies.1937,4(3):182-191.
[141]Segal D. Are there returns to scale in city size?[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics.1976, 58(3):339-350.
[142]Ronald L M. Agglomeration economies:Are they exaggerated by industrial aggregation?[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics.1998,28(2):199-211.
[143]范剑勇.产业集聚与地区间劳动生产率差异[J].经济研究.2006(11)：72-81.
[144]Fujita M, Thisse J. Economics of Agglomeration[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2002.
[145]傅十和,洪俊杰.企业规模、城市规模与集聚经济——对中国制造业企业普查数据的实证分析[J].经济研究.2008(11)：112-125.
[146]Nelson R, Phelps E. Investment in humans, technological diffusion, and economic growth[J]. American Economic Review.,51(2):69-75.
[147]Romer D. A Simple General Equilibrium Version of the Baumol-Tobin Model[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics.1986,101(4):663-685.
[148]Lundvall B, Johnson B. Closing the institutional gap?[J]. Revue d'Economie Industrielle.,59(1): 111-123.
[149]Papageorgiou C. Technology Adoption, Human Capital, and Growth Theory[J]. Review of Development Economics.2002,6(3):351-368.
[150]Caselli F, Coleman W J. The U.S. Technology Frontier[J]. American Economic Review.2002, 92(2):148-152.
[151]Griffith R, Redding S, Simpson H. Foreign Ownership and Productivity:New Evidence from the Service Sector and the R&D Lab[J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy.2004,20(3):440-456.
[152]Bronzini R, Piselli P. Determinants of long-run regional productivity with geographical spillovers: The role of R&D, human capital and public infrastructure[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics. 2009,39(2):187-199.
[153]赖明勇,张新,彭水军,等.经济增长的源泉：人力资本、研究开发与技术外溢[J].中国社会科学.2005(2)：32-46.
[154]Goldin C, Katz L F. The shaping of higher education in the United States and New England[J]. Regional Review.2001,4:5-11.
[155]尹宗成,丁日佳,江激宇.FDI、人力资本、R&D与中国能源效率[J].财贸经济.2008(9)：95-98.
[156]陈军,徐士元.技术进步对中国能源效率的影响：1979—2006[J].科学管理研究.2008(1)：9-13.
[157]黄菁,赖明勇,王华.FDI在中国的技术外溢效应：基于面板数据的考察[J].世界经济研究.2008(10)：48-55.
[158]滕玉华.国际R&D溢出与工业能源效率——基于进口贸易的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题.2010(5)：104-110.
[159]Andersson F, Burgess S M, Lane J. Cities,Matching and the Productivity Gains of Agglomeration[J]. Discussion paper No.4598, CEPR.2004.
[160]Carlino G A, Chatterjee S, Hunt R M. Urban density and the rate of invention[J]. Journal of Urban Economics.2007,61(3):389-419.
[161]Cole M A, Elliott R J R, Wu S. Industrial activity and the environment in China:An industry-level analysis[J]. China Economic Review.2008,19(3):393-408.
[162]Ang J B. CO2 emissions, research and technology transfer in China[J]. Ecological Economics. 2009,68(10):2658-2665.
[163]史丹.我国经济增长过程中能源利用效率的改进[J].经济研究.2002(9)：49-56.
[164]李艳梅,张雷,程晓凌.中国碳排放变化的因素分解与减排途径分析[J].资源科学.2010(2)：218-222.
[165]张丽峰.我国产业结构、能源结构和碳排放关系研究[J].干旱区资源与环境.2011(5)：1-7.
[166]虞义华,郑新业,张莉.经济发展水平、产业结构与碳排放强度——中国省级面板数据分析[J].经济理论与经济管理.2011(3)：72-81.
[167]林伯强,刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放：影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究.2010(8)：66-78.
[168]Poumanyvong P, Kaneko S. Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions[J]. Ecological Economics.2010,70:434-444.
[169]Martinez-Zarzoso I, Maruotti A. The Impact of Urbanization on CO2 Emissions Evidence from Developing Countries[J]. Economics, Ecological.2011,70(7):1344-1353.
[170]Khazzoom J D. Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency Standards for Household Appliances.[J]. Energy Journal.1980,1(4):21-39.
[171]蒋时节,刘贵文,李世蓉.基础设施投资与城市化之间的相关性分析[J].城市发展研究.2005(2)：72-74.
[172]刘修岩.集聚经济、公共基础设施与劳动生产率——来自中国城市动态面板数据的证据[J].财经研究.2010(5)：91-101.
[173]Windmeijer F. A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators[J]. Journal of Econometrics.2005,126(1):25-51.
[174]岳书敬,刘朝明.人力资本与区域全要素生产率分析[J].经济研究.2006(4)：90-96.
[175]Barros V, Grand M. Implications of a dynamic target of greenhouse gases emission reduction: the case of Argentina[J]. Environment and Development Economics.2002,7(3):547.
[176]Krueger A B, Lindahl M. Education for Growth:Why and for Whom?[J]. Journal of Economic Literature.2001,39(4):1101-1136.
[177]Cohen D, Soto M. Growth and human capital:good data, good results[J]. Journal of Economic Growth.2007,12(1):51-76.
[178]Mankiw N G, Romer D, Weil D N. A contribution to the empirics of economic growth[J]. The quarterly journal of economics.1992,107(2):407.
[179]Arellano M, Bover O. Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models[J]. Journal of Econometrics.1995,68(1):29-51.
[180]Ciccone A, Hall R E. Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity[J]. The American Economic Review.1996,86(1):54-70.
[181]朱跃中.未来中国交通运输部门能源发展与碳排放情景分析[J].中国工业经济.2001(12)：30-35.
[182]刘艳军,李诚固,孙迪.城市区域空间结构：系统演化及驱动机制[J].城市规划学刊.2006(6)：73-78.
[183]陈强.北京：高等教育出版社，2010.
[184]林毅夫.后发优势与后发劣势——与杨小凯教授商榷[J].经济学(季刊).2003(3)：989-1004.
[185]Maddison A. Growth and Slowdown in Advanced Capitalist Economies:Techniques of Quantitative Assessment[J]. Journal of Economic Literature.1987,25(2):649-698.
[186]Rostow W W. The Stages of Economic Growth[M]. London:Cambridge University Press,1962.
[187]史丹,张金隆.产业结构变动对能源消费的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理.2003(8)：30-32.
[188]徐萍,吴群,刘勇,等.产业结构优化与土地资源配置——以江苏省南京市为分析对象[J].中国土地.2004(Z1)：75-79.
[189]Arellano M, Bond S. Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations[J]. Review of Economic Studies.1991,58(2):277-297.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |