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中国农业节水技术推广关键影响因素研究
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摘要
农业节水技术是促进粮食增产、保持农业可持续发展的重要手段。世界上粮食增产中25%归功于扩大耕地面积,75%归功于提高单产。虽然单产的提高是综合措施的结果,但灌溉却是其中重要措施。随着世界性水资源日益紧缺,水资源不足已成为制约我国灌溉农业发展的重要因素之一,要进一步发展灌溉面积就必须加大节水灌溉技术推广。因此,研究农业节水技术推广的影响因素,尤其是对关键影响因素的研究,对促进农业节水灌溉面积的推广十分必要。
     本文从理论与实际操作角度研究农业节水技术推广的关键影响因素。全文共分五部分:第一部分为引言,明确本文的研究背景、目的、意义、国内外研究状况及本文的主要内容和方法,是对全文的总体性介绍。第二部分为理论概述,阐述与本研究有关的农业节水技术、农业节水技术推广和农业节水技术推广影响因素等概念和农户行为理论、公共产品理论和可持续发展理论等相应的理论,为下文提供了理论准备。第三部分分析了国内外农业节水技术推广情况,并介绍了国外典型代表国家的现状、趋势及我国的情况,内外兼论找出问题、明晰发展趋势,进而提炼出影响农业节水技术推广水资源、投资、农户参与和激励等四大关键因素。第四部分分析影响农业节水技术推广的关键因素,是论文的重点部分。在对水资源研究中,分析了我国水资源总体供求及对农业灌溉的影响,并定量分析了2001-2009年农业灌溉用水压力指数,发现平均数接近1,有的年份超过1,压力逐渐增大,通过对样本地所采取分区布井、集雨蓄水和明晰水权水价等措施的探讨,指出如何缓解灌溉水资源压力:在对投资研究中,设计了17张表,其中14张表数据通过实地调研获得,调研范围包括自然地理概况、经济总体情况、水利建设情况和农业节水灌溉投资情况等四个方面,涉及水务、农委、财政和金融等相关部门,其他通过年鉴等文献获得,实例对比分析了试点县和全国财政、信贷和自筹资金的水利投资情况,总结了T县的成功经验;在对农户参与的研究中,设计了影响农户参与节水灌溉的调查表,采用逻辑斯谛(Logistic)模型对26个变量进行了定量分析,算出每个影响因素的影响程度;在对激励研究中,通过对激励的经济分析,以博弈论为理论指导,提出政府对农户和节水设备生产商进行组合激励理论,结合试点T县的情况,进行了组合激励实例证明;在对四大关键影响因素独立分析基础上,进行了总体评价,采用AHP层次分析模型对16个二级影响因素指标进行了排序评价,得出各指标对我国农业节水技术推广影响的重要程度。第五部分在前文的研究基础上,基于关键影响因素视角提出促进农业节水技术推广的16方面建议,并总结全文得出8个方面结论。
     在论文写作过程中主要采用以下研究方法:
     1)文献归纳法。本论文在确定选题后,即开始大量文献检索,对前人的研究成果进行归类总结,如对农业节水技术和农业节水技术推广影响因素的总结等,通过文献的归纳,进一步明确研究方向、细节,并形成了初步调查方案和调查表。
     2)定性分析方法。在对影响农业节水技术推广的因素探讨之后,对水资源、投资、农户和激励等关键因素进行了较全面的定性分析。
     3)定量分析方法。在研究农业灌溉水资源供求时,采用水资源压力指数法对农业灌溉水资源可持续发展进行了定量分析;在进行大量调研基础上,对影响农户参与节水灌溉因素用逻辑斯谛(Logistic)模型进行定量分析;对影响农业节水技术推广的关键因素用AHP法进行定量分析等。
     4)实例分析法。在研究中使用具体实例,如以黑龙江省T县为例讨论投资对节水灌溉的影响,在农户参与一章中农户的具体参与模式和激励分析中的T县组合激励实例等。
     5)规范分析法。论文在对水资源、投资、农户参与和激励等关键因素分析后,根据我国农业节水技术推广关键影响因素的不同影响排序,提出可操作的、较科学的规范建议。
     本文在研究过程中除了选题方面有创新之外,还力争在以下5个方面实现创新:
     (1)构建了农业节水技术推广关键影响因素的理论框架,界定了水资源、投资、农户参与和激励四大关键影响因素。
     (2)运用资源压力指数法,结合我国水资源实际情况进行修正,得出我国农业节水灌溉水资源压力急剧增加的趋势。
     (3)实例对比研究了我国农业节水技术推广财政、信贷投资情况,尤其是信贷投资情况。指出从我国总体来看,信贷对节水灌溉支持作用微乎其微,因为信贷近年平均贷款总额在232678.8亿元,而同期用于水利建设的贷款年均额是91.56亿元,用于水利建设的贷款在比例上接近于零,根据目前情况,至少应达到5%,否则不利于节水灌溉技术推广,试点县T县的实际情况证明了这一点。
     (4)根据调查情况,对影响黑龙江、新疆、内蒙古和陕西农户参与节水灌溉的因素进行了定性定量分析,指出显著影响因素、一般影响因素和不显著影响因素。
     (5)提出对农户和农业节水设备厂商组合激励理论,即对农户和农业节水灌溉设备生产商进行组合激励,试点县的实例证明这可以突破单一激励的局限。
     通过本文的研究,在理论上和实践上可能达到如下意义:
     1)理论意义。在理论上,农业节水技术推广必然受各种因素影响,如水资源因素、农户参与因素、政府投资因素、节水技术提供体因素、金融机构贷款因素和激励因素等等。通过对我国农业节水技术推广关键影响因素研究可以达到以下理论意义:(1)构建了研究影响我国农业节水技术推广关键因素的理论框架;(2)运用资源压力指数法对全国农业灌溉水资源压力进行测算、提出对农户和节水设备生产商进行组合激励的理论;(3)运用AHP方法对关键影响因素的具体指标进行理论排序。
     2)实践意义。自1949年建国以来,我国农业节水技术推广经过几十年的发展取得一定的成绩,全国的水利设施日益完善,节水技术日益丰富,推广面积逐年增加。但由于各种因素的影响,农业节水技术推广的面积在数量和质量上存在大量问题,通过对其关键影响因素的研究可达到以下实践意义:(1)有利于对农业灌溉水资源的保护性使用和开发,促进农业灌溉水资源的可持续使用;(2)有利于加大财政、信贷等资金渠道支持农业节水技术推广的力度;(3)有利于促进农户参与农业节水技术推广,有效增加节水灌溉面积、增加农副产品产量;(4)有利于国家完善促进农节水技术推广的政策和条例。
Agricultural water-saving technology is an important means to increase grain production and maintain agricultural sustainable development. In the world,25%of the increasing grain production attributes to expansion of cultivated area, while75%dues to improving yield per unit area. Although the enhancement of yield per unit area is the result of comprehensive measures, irrigation is one of the important measures. With the increasing scarcity of global water resources, water shortage has become one of the important factors restricting the development of our irrigated agriculture, and we must promote water-saving irrigation technology to develop the irrigation area further. Therefore, the study of agricultural water-saving technology popularization factors, especially the study of key factors, is necessary for promoting the popularization of agricultural water saving irrigation area.
     This article studied the key factors of popularizing agricultural water-saving techniques from the perspective of theory and practice. This article was divided into five parts:the first part was the introduction, clearing the research background, purpose, meaning, present situation of domestic and foreign research, and main contents and methods, which was a general introduction to the whole paper, The second part was the introduction to the theory, elaborating the related concepts of the agricultural water-saving technology, popularization of agricultural water-saving technology and influencing factors of popularization of agricultural water-saving technology, and the theories of household behavior, public goods and sustainable development, which provided theoretical preparations for the following. The third part analyzed the popularization of agricultural water-saving technology at home and abroad, described the present situation and trends of a representative foreign nation and our country's situation, identified issues from interior and exterior, and cleared development trends, and then extracted four key factors-water resources%investment%farmer participation and incentive, to promote the agricultural water-saving technologies popularization. The fourth part analyzed the key factors of operating mechanism of popularization of agricultural water-saving technology, which is the key part of the paper. In the research of water resources, this paper analyzed the overall supply and demand of water resources and the impact on agricultural irrigation, analyzed the pressure index of water resources'utilization at agricultural irrigation from2001to2009quantitatively, and then founded the average closing to1, some years more than1and the pressure gradually increasing. By discussing measures of placement of well, collection of rain and definition of water rights in some samples, it was pointed out that how to relieve the pressure of irrigation water. In the investment research, this paper created17tables, of which14tables' data were obtained through field investigation, and these tables covered four aspects including natural geographical situation, general economic conditions, conditions of water conservancy construction and agricultural water-saving irrigation investment situation, involving water supply, agriculture committee, fiscal, financial and other relevant departments, while the other tables were obtained from the yearbooks and other literature. This paper comparatively analyzed the situation of the fiscal, credit and self-financing water investments between the example County and the whole nation, and summarized the successful experience from pilot T County. In the farmers' participating research, a questionnaire was designed about farmers'participation in water-saving irrigation,26variables were analyzed quantitatively with Logistic model, and the degree of influence of each factor was calculated. In the incentives research, through economic analysis of incentives, with the game theory as the theoretical guidance, the paper put forward the theory of government's joint incentive to farmers and water-saving equipment manufacturers, which was proved by the case of the pilot T County. Based on the independent analysis of four key factors, the paper made overall evaluation, made evaluation of16secondary effecting factors Indexes through conducting AHP model, and drew indication of every factor index influencing of agricultural water-saving technology popularization in China. The part V, on the basis of the above, Basing on the perspective of the key factors, we proposed16recommendations promoting of agricultural water-saving technology popularization and drew eight aspects conclusion.
     The paper, in the process of writing, mainly adopted the following methods:
     1) Literature induction. After determining the topic, searching extensive literature, classifying and summarizing the previous research results, such as the agricultural water-saving technology and influencing factors of agricultural water-saving technology popularization, Through the induction of literature, the paper made clear direction of further research, details, and formed the preliminary survey scheme and questionnaire.
     2) Qualitative analysis. After discussing the impacting factors of popularization of agricultural water-saving technology, the paper made a more comprehensive qualitative analysis of key elements such as the water resources, investment, farmer participation and incentives.
     3) Quantitative analysis. In agricultural irrigation water supply and demand research, the paper made quantitative analysis for sustainable development of agricultural irrigation water by using water stress index; on the foundation of lots of research, the paper made Logistic model on the factors affecting farmers'participation in water-saving irrigation; on influencing factors of operation mechanism of popularization of agricultural water-saving technology, the paper made quantitative analysis by using AHP, etc.
     4) Example analysis. In the study, the paper used specific examples, such as Heilongjiang T County as a case to discuss the influence of investments in water-saving irrigation, farmers'specific participation pattern and joint incentive in T County in relevant chapters.
     5) Specification analysis. After the analysis of the key factors of water resources, investment, farmers'participation,incentive, according to the different influences sort of the key factors at agricultural water-saving technology popularization in China, the paper constructed workable and more scientific norms recommendations.
     In the course of the research, the paper had innovation not only in topic selection, but also in the following five aspects:
     1) The paper built a theoretical framework of the key factors at agricultural water-saving technologies popularization, and defined water resources, investment, farmers'participation and incentive are its four key influencing factors in China.
     2) The paper calculated a sharp increasing trend of water stress at agricultural water-saving irrigation in China, using of resources pressure index and combining the actual situation of water resources to be corrected.
     3) By comparative analysis of the finance and credit investment,especially in credit investment of agricultural water-saving technology popularization with example in Chinas, it was pointed out that support of the credit to water-saving irrigation was very little in general, because the average total loans in credit was23.26788trillion Yuan, while the average annual amount of loans for the construction of water was9.156billion Yuan in the same period. The proportion of loans for water conservancy construction was close to zero, according to the present situation, it should be at least5%, or not which was not conducive to popularization of water-saving irrigation techniques, and the pilot T County proved the actual situation.
     4) According to the survey,the paper pointed out the significant factors,general factors and not significant factors influencing farmers to participate in water-saving irrigation by qualitative and quantitative analysis to Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi.
     5) The paper advanced the joint incentive theory of farmers and agricultural water-saving equipment manufacturers, namely, the incentive of combination of farmers and agricultural water-saving equipment manufacturers, which could break through the limitations of a single excitation, which was proved by pilot T County.
     The research could reach the following significance in theory and practice:
     1) Theoretical significance. In theory, the popularization of agricultural water-saving technology would be influenced by water resources, farmers, government, water-saving technology providing bodies, financial institutions, incentives and other factors. By the studying for key factors of water-saving agricultural technology popularization in China, we can achieve the following theoretical significance:
     (1) To construct the theoretical framework of studying the key factors impacting agricultural water-saving technology popularization.
     (2) To estimate the agricultural irrigation water pressure of China using the resource pressure index and put forward the theory of the combination incentives for farmers and water equipment manufacturers.
     (3) To sort specific indicators of the key factors using the AHP theory.
     2) Practical significance. Since1949, we has made some achievements at water-saving agricultural technology popularization after the decades development, the country's water conservancy facilities has been improved steadily,water-saving technologies increasingly riched and the popularization area has been increasing year by year. However, duing to various factors, there are a lot of problems on the quantity and quality of the area of water-saving agricultural technology popularization, by the studying for key factors of water-saving agricultural technology popularization in China, we can achieve the following practical significance:
     (1)The studying is conducive to the agricultural irrigation water protecting use and development and can promote the sustainable use of agricultural irrigation water.
     (2) The studying is conducive to intensificating the marketing efforts of financial, credit and other funding sources to support the agricultural water-saving technologies.
     (3)The studying is conducive to promoting the farmer participation in agricultural water-saving technology and effectively increasing the water-saving irrigation area, and increasing agricultural production.
     (4)The studying is conducive to improving the policies and regulations to promote water-saving agricultural technology promotion in China.
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