软投入与中国区域经济发展比较研究
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摘要
当前中国的经济发展和比较优势在空间上的分布都是极不平衡的,东部地区经济发展比较快,中部地区次之,而广大西部地区经济和社会发展比较慢,这种区域差异现象产生的内在机理是什么?本文试图基于兰州大学经济学院李国璋教授提出的软投入理论分析框架,对中国产业的不平衡分布模式及地区差距的产生机制提供一种新视角的解释。在对改革开放以来中国产业结构、生产效率和区域经济发展差距进行经验描述的基础上,通过理论研究和计量分析相结合的方法对中国产业集聚和区域比较优势的影响机制,以及经济集聚和区域比较优势所带来的发展差异效应进行了考察。运用增量投入产出表、DEA,SFA和其他计量模型分析方法对中国1995-2008年间的产业结构、生产效率和区域经济发展差异因素进行了基于区域比较优势和竞争优势的分析。
第一章和第二章是导言和文献综述,主要讨论当前中国区域发展差异和西部地区经济发展的前沿研究。在第三章首先对中国的产业结构演变及其区域经济发展进行了简要描述,然后采用中国东、中、西部1996年至2008年的面板数据,运用面板协整理论和模型分析了制度差异和软投入质量对中国东、中、西三大区域经济增长影响。研究发现,东、中、西部地区制度和软投入质量差异变量与区域经济增长变量之间都存在长期均衡关系；全国和区域的制度差异和软投入质量对社会经济发展差异有一定的影响；在不同的区域条件约束下,全国和区域的人均GDP和开放存在相互因果关系。研究认为缩小区域经济发展差距,建立可持续均衡发展和提高软投入质量的经济增长模式对中国经济长远发展相当重要。从第四章到第七章,首先基于shift-share方法、软投入理论和增量投入产出表分析了中国产业结构与生产效率的关系,然后利用1998-2007年的省级面板数据,通过SFA、DEA模型和软投入理论夹角方法,利用CD函数和超越对数函数估算了中国各省市区和三大区域历年的资本和劳动产出弹性、TFP水平及其效率变化,对生产效率和软投入质量与中国区域经济发展,特别是西部地区经济发展进行了详细研究,研究发现东中西部的资本产出弹性大于劳动产出弹性。以上研究表明区域间TFP和软投入质量不同引起中国区域社会经济发展差距扩大。本文认为中西部提高生产效率、软投入质量和国家增加对中西部的投资可以缩小中国区域经济发展差异和促进中国区域经济社会发展。
本文认为产业集聚导致的生产效率、区域比较优势和产业结构差异是中国地区差距持续扩大的另外三个重要原因,但这种产业集聚对中国当前整体的经济增长却是有利的。经济集聚是中国经济发展不可逾越的阶段,目前应采取继续推进经济活动空间集聚的政策措施。本文在理论与实证分析的基础上,基于软投入理论,利用中国的相关统计数据,通过对中国经济发展的简要分析,本文认为中国在产业结构变迁和优化的发展过程中,产业结构优化的最优路径就是提高软投入组合质量,减少软投入组合制约,提高经济和社会发展的质量,减小区域经济发展差距,在区域经济体内和区域经济体间建立良好的因果累积循环的经济发展体制,尤其是在经济和社会发展比较落后的西部地区更应该如此,在区域比较优势的基础上发展特色优势产业,提高软投入组合质量,建立更多更好的特色优势产业集群,培育区域产业集群的核心竞争力,面向全球合作竞争。在今后的研究中,本研究主要基于空间动态面板计量方法、非参数方法及软投入理论的动态方法进行相关的研究,更多重点放在区域经济发展,特别是西部地区经济和社会发展的基础应用研究上,提出更多有建设意义的结果,为国家和西部地区经济和社会发展做出实质性的建议。
At present the economic development and comparative advantages in the spatial distribution is extremely uneven in China, and what is the inner mechanism in this phenomenon of regional differentiation? This paper attempts to provide a new perspective for the imbalance of industrial and the generation mechanism of regional distribution patterns in China based on the theoretical framework of soft input theory proposed by Professor Li Guozhang, School of Economics, Lanzhou University. This paper describes the economic development and spatial distribution in China since the reform and the opening-up, through the theoretical study and empirical analysis to research the influence mechanism of industrial agglomeration and the difference effect generated from the industrial agglomeration. This paper based on soft input theory uses the incremental input output table, DEA, SFA and other empirical methods to research the industrial structure, production efficiency and difference factors of regional development, and based on the aforesaid research study the intrinsic relations among the TFP, industrial structure and regional economic development in China, and tries to provide a new analysis perspective based on soft input theory from the view of regional factor endowment, production efficiency, industrial structure and regional economic development and analyze them from a open and special view.
From the first part to the second part, this papaer tells the introduction and the document summary. In the third part this paper firstly describe the industrial structure and regional development in China, and then uses the panel data coming from east, middle, west regions in China from1996to2008to research the difference of regional economic development and the effective mechanism based on the emprical methods of cointegration and other tools. The result tells there existing a long-term balance relations among the regional economic growth, institutional differences and other control variales, and thses differences leads to some influces to the developemnt of regional development. Under the conditions of different constraints, there are the mutual relations between GDP and opening-up, therefore the institution of narrowing the regional development gap and establishing a long-term sustainable development mechanism is very important for China. Form the fourth part to sixth part, firstly uses shift-share, soft input theory and increment input-output table to research the relations between industrial structure and productivity in China. And then uses the panel data from1998to2007, methods of SFA, DEA, and included angle of soft input theory, and CD and translog functions, to research the production elasticity, TFP and production efficiency change of provinces, regions and country, specially for west regions, the results tells that the elasticity of capital is more than labor.
Based on the research, from1998to2007TFP of east is highest among east, middle and west, therefore, this paper thinks TFP is a major factor to causes the regional development difference of economy and society and it is a very effective method to develop the economic growth and reduce the interregional difference through enhancing the soft input quality in west China. This paper thinks the industrial structure difference, specially the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, especially the manufacture industry agglomerate to east costal regions, which leads to the interregional TFP difference is a leading reason to cause the regional development difference, but this kind of difference is beneficial for the present development in China and is not well for long-term development. It is very difficult to reduce the second industry gap between China and developed counties and regions, the best way to reduce the economic development gap between China and developed counties and regions is to make the economy of China become more open and break the route dependence and the lock-in effect, establish the economic development strategy with the core of the service industry, dynamically enhance regional TFP and narrow the development difference among regions, so as to establish a harmonious society. The regional spatial agglomeration of economy is a necessary period for development of China and presently continues to the economic agglomeration in China and in a long-term plan, this paper thinks it is very reasonable to build a balanced development mechanism.
Based on the research, middle and west regions shall build a development pattern which is core of presently giving more investment into manufacture and in a long run shall change into service industry, east region shall establish a high-tech and high value added based structure of the second and tertiary industries, optimize the industrial structure, foster science and technology, improve production efficiency, and middle and west regions shall receive the industries transferred from east costal region, give more support for development of east region, and try best to narrow the interregional development gap.
In summary, this paper uses theoretical and empirical analysis, based on soft input theory, from the perspectives of industrial structure and productivity to research the regional development difference in China. Through a brief analysis of economic development in China, this paper thinks it is a best way to narrow regional development gap and develop west region, which is to improve and optimize the soft input combination quality, reduce the constraint of soft input, enhance the system quality of institution and policy, break the route dependence and the lock-in effect, establish the economic development strategy with the core of the service industry, build the tertiary industry as the core of the economic development system. Middle and west regions shall speed up the urbanization and industrial structure upgrade, which based on more investment in to middle and regions, which is the policy of development of west China and rise of central China. In the future research, this paper will use spatial dynamic panel methods, nonparametric methods and theory of dynamic soft-input methods-related research.
第一章和第二章是导言和文献综述,主要讨论当前中国区域发展差异和西部地区经济发展的前沿研究。在第三章首先对中国的产业结构演变及其区域经济发展进行了简要描述,然后采用中国东、中、西部1996年至2008年的面板数据,运用面板协整理论和模型分析了制度差异和软投入质量对中国东、中、西三大区域经济增长影响。研究发现,东、中、西部地区制度和软投入质量差异变量与区域经济增长变量之间都存在长期均衡关系；全国和区域的制度差异和软投入质量对社会经济发展差异有一定的影响；在不同的区域条件约束下,全国和区域的人均GDP和开放存在相互因果关系。研究认为缩小区域经济发展差距,建立可持续均衡发展和提高软投入质量的经济增长模式对中国经济长远发展相当重要。从第四章到第七章,首先基于shift-share方法、软投入理论和增量投入产出表分析了中国产业结构与生产效率的关系,然后利用1998-2007年的省级面板数据,通过SFA、DEA模型和软投入理论夹角方法,利用CD函数和超越对数函数估算了中国各省市区和三大区域历年的资本和劳动产出弹性、TFP水平及其效率变化,对生产效率和软投入质量与中国区域经济发展,特别是西部地区经济发展进行了详细研究,研究发现东中西部的资本产出弹性大于劳动产出弹性。以上研究表明区域间TFP和软投入质量不同引起中国区域社会经济发展差距扩大。本文认为中西部提高生产效率、软投入质量和国家增加对中西部的投资可以缩小中国区域经济发展差异和促进中国区域经济社会发展。
本文认为产业集聚导致的生产效率、区域比较优势和产业结构差异是中国地区差距持续扩大的另外三个重要原因,但这种产业集聚对中国当前整体的经济增长却是有利的。经济集聚是中国经济发展不可逾越的阶段,目前应采取继续推进经济活动空间集聚的政策措施。本文在理论与实证分析的基础上,基于软投入理论,利用中国的相关统计数据,通过对中国经济发展的简要分析,本文认为中国在产业结构变迁和优化的发展过程中,产业结构优化的最优路径就是提高软投入组合质量,减少软投入组合制约,提高经济和社会发展的质量,减小区域经济发展差距,在区域经济体内和区域经济体间建立良好的因果累积循环的经济发展体制,尤其是在经济和社会发展比较落后的西部地区更应该如此,在区域比较优势的基础上发展特色优势产业,提高软投入组合质量,建立更多更好的特色优势产业集群,培育区域产业集群的核心竞争力,面向全球合作竞争。在今后的研究中,本研究主要基于空间动态面板计量方法、非参数方法及软投入理论的动态方法进行相关的研究,更多重点放在区域经济发展,特别是西部地区经济和社会发展的基础应用研究上,提出更多有建设意义的结果,为国家和西部地区经济和社会发展做出实质性的建议。
At present the economic development and comparative advantages in the spatial distribution is extremely uneven in China, and what is the inner mechanism in this phenomenon of regional differentiation? This paper attempts to provide a new perspective for the imbalance of industrial and the generation mechanism of regional distribution patterns in China based on the theoretical framework of soft input theory proposed by Professor Li Guozhang, School of Economics, Lanzhou University. This paper describes the economic development and spatial distribution in China since the reform and the opening-up, through the theoretical study and empirical analysis to research the influence mechanism of industrial agglomeration and the difference effect generated from the industrial agglomeration. This paper based on soft input theory uses the incremental input output table, DEA, SFA and other empirical methods to research the industrial structure, production efficiency and difference factors of regional development, and based on the aforesaid research study the intrinsic relations among the TFP, industrial structure and regional economic development in China, and tries to provide a new analysis perspective based on soft input theory from the view of regional factor endowment, production efficiency, industrial structure and regional economic development and analyze them from a open and special view.
From the first part to the second part, this papaer tells the introduction and the document summary. In the third part this paper firstly describe the industrial structure and regional development in China, and then uses the panel data coming from east, middle, west regions in China from1996to2008to research the difference of regional economic development and the effective mechanism based on the emprical methods of cointegration and other tools. The result tells there existing a long-term balance relations among the regional economic growth, institutional differences and other control variales, and thses differences leads to some influces to the developemnt of regional development. Under the conditions of different constraints, there are the mutual relations between GDP and opening-up, therefore the institution of narrowing the regional development gap and establishing a long-term sustainable development mechanism is very important for China. Form the fourth part to sixth part, firstly uses shift-share, soft input theory and increment input-output table to research the relations between industrial structure and productivity in China. And then uses the panel data from1998to2007, methods of SFA, DEA, and included angle of soft input theory, and CD and translog functions, to research the production elasticity, TFP and production efficiency change of provinces, regions and country, specially for west regions, the results tells that the elasticity of capital is more than labor.
Based on the research, from1998to2007TFP of east is highest among east, middle and west, therefore, this paper thinks TFP is a major factor to causes the regional development difference of economy and society and it is a very effective method to develop the economic growth and reduce the interregional difference through enhancing the soft input quality in west China. This paper thinks the industrial structure difference, specially the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, especially the manufacture industry agglomerate to east costal regions, which leads to the interregional TFP difference is a leading reason to cause the regional development difference, but this kind of difference is beneficial for the present development in China and is not well for long-term development. It is very difficult to reduce the second industry gap between China and developed counties and regions, the best way to reduce the economic development gap between China and developed counties and regions is to make the economy of China become more open and break the route dependence and the lock-in effect, establish the economic development strategy with the core of the service industry, dynamically enhance regional TFP and narrow the development difference among regions, so as to establish a harmonious society. The regional spatial agglomeration of economy is a necessary period for development of China and presently continues to the economic agglomeration in China and in a long-term plan, this paper thinks it is very reasonable to build a balanced development mechanism.
Based on the research, middle and west regions shall build a development pattern which is core of presently giving more investment into manufacture and in a long run shall change into service industry, east region shall establish a high-tech and high value added based structure of the second and tertiary industries, optimize the industrial structure, foster science and technology, improve production efficiency, and middle and west regions shall receive the industries transferred from east costal region, give more support for development of east region, and try best to narrow the interregional development gap.
In summary, this paper uses theoretical and empirical analysis, based on soft input theory, from the perspectives of industrial structure and productivity to research the regional development difference in China. Through a brief analysis of economic development in China, this paper thinks it is a best way to narrow regional development gap and develop west region, which is to improve and optimize the soft input combination quality, reduce the constraint of soft input, enhance the system quality of institution and policy, break the route dependence and the lock-in effect, establish the economic development strategy with the core of the service industry, build the tertiary industry as the core of the economic development system. Middle and west regions shall speed up the urbanization and industrial structure upgrade, which based on more investment in to middle and regions, which is the policy of development of west China and rise of central China. In the future research, this paper will use spatial dynamic panel methods, nonparametric methods and theory of dynamic soft-input methods-related research.
引文
1李国璋,《努力提高软投入在我国国民经济发展中的作用》,1986年3月提交经济改革与数量分析学术讨论会论文,该文首次提出“硬投入”和“软投入”概念。“软投入与经济增长”,国家社会科学基金课题,研究时间为1989-1992年,主要研究软投入理论,提出软投入与投入组合理论构想。“反映软投入作用的广义投入产出模型和应用研究”,国家自然科学基金课题(项目编号79170039),研究时间为1990-1993年,主要研究定量描述经济增长中软投入作用的模型方法,增量投入产出表,研究成果为著作《软投入及产出数量分析》,甘肃科学技术出版社1995年10月出版。
2 Kumbhakar, S.C., Estimation and Decomposition of Productivity Change when Production Is Not Efficient: A Panel Data Approach[J], Econometric Reviews19,2000, pp.425-460.
3王双.不可再生资源约束下的技术进步与经济增长[D].兰州大学博士论文,2009.本部分在同门王双师姐博士论文的基础上总结发展而成,为了论述的精确性,尽量原文引用王双师姐的博士论文相关部分,详细论述请参考王双师姐博士论文。
4 Solow (1956)模型的主要贡献之一是划分了水平效应和增长率效应。水平效应是经济系统参数变化只引起产出水平发生变化而不引起均衡增长率发生变化,增长率效应是经济系统参数变化引起均衡增长率发生变化。Solow在该模型中指出,储蓄的变化是水平效应。较高的储蓄率所导致的结果不是持续的较高的增长率,而是持续的较高的人均产出。
5新古典增长理论假定经济增长是外生性的,经济稳态增长率主要取决于人口增长率等不可控因素,在没有外力推动下,经济体系无法实现持续的增长；只有当经济中存在外生的技术进步或外生的人口增长时,经济才能实现持续增长。
6 Solow在1957年提出全要素生产率(Total Factor Productivity)分析方法,并应用这种分析方法检验新古典增长模型时发现,劳动和物质资本的投入只能解释12.5%左右的产出增长,另外87.5%的产出增长被归为一个外生的、用以解释技术进步的余值(residual),从而确立了“技术进步决定经济增长”的观点。
7有学者对Arrow模型给予了较高评价,如朱勇(1999)："Arrow模型的重要性在于,它突破了新古典增长理论的研究框架,提出了第一个内生增长模型,从而促进了新增长理论的产生。”参见朱勇：《新增长理论》,商务印书馆,1999年12月版,第53-54页。
8见：Barro, R.J., X. Sala-I-Martin (1995) Economic Growth. New York: McGraw-Hill.
9见：Shumpeter, J.A. (1942) Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York: Harper and Brothers.
10见：Gancia, G., F. Zilibotti (2005) "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development." In Aghion, P. and S. Durlauf. Handbook of Economic Growth, Amsterdam:North Holland.
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2 Kumbhakar, S.C., Estimation and Decomposition of Productivity Change when Production Is Not Efficient: A Panel Data Approach[J], Econometric Reviews19,2000, pp.425-460.
3王双.不可再生资源约束下的技术进步与经济增长[D].兰州大学博士论文,2009.本部分在同门王双师姐博士论文的基础上总结发展而成,为了论述的精确性,尽量原文引用王双师姐的博士论文相关部分,详细论述请参考王双师姐博士论文。
4 Solow (1956)模型的主要贡献之一是划分了水平效应和增长率效应。水平效应是经济系统参数变化只引起产出水平发生变化而不引起均衡增长率发生变化,增长率效应是经济系统参数变化引起均衡增长率发生变化。Solow在该模型中指出,储蓄的变化是水平效应。较高的储蓄率所导致的结果不是持续的较高的增长率,而是持续的较高的人均产出。
5新古典增长理论假定经济增长是外生性的,经济稳态增长率主要取决于人口增长率等不可控因素,在没有外力推动下,经济体系无法实现持续的增长；只有当经济中存在外生的技术进步或外生的人口增长时,经济才能实现持续增长。
6 Solow在1957年提出全要素生产率(Total Factor Productivity)分析方法,并应用这种分析方法检验新古典增长模型时发现,劳动和物质资本的投入只能解释12.5%左右的产出增长,另外87.5%的产出增长被归为一个外生的、用以解释技术进步的余值(residual),从而确立了“技术进步决定经济增长”的观点。
7有学者对Arrow模型给予了较高评价,如朱勇(1999)："Arrow模型的重要性在于,它突破了新古典增长理论的研究框架,提出了第一个内生增长模型,从而促进了新增长理论的产生。”参见朱勇：《新增长理论》,商务印书馆,1999年12月版,第53-54页。
8见：Barro, R.J., X. Sala-I-Martin (1995) Economic Growth. New York: McGraw-Hill.
9见：Shumpeter, J.A. (1942) Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York: Harper and Brothers.
10见：Gancia, G., F. Zilibotti (2005) "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development." In Aghion, P. and S. Durlauf. Handbook of Economic Growth, Amsterdam:North Holland.
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