中国金融外部失衡问题研究
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摘要
本文以金融协调理论提供的方法论为指导,以中国当前的输入性通货膨胀为切入口,从理论和实证分析了中国金融外部失衡和输入性通货膨胀的关系,分析认为中国金融外部失衡是导致输入性通货膨胀的主要原因,尤其是巨额双顺差积累的外汇储备在目前的固定汇率制度下形成的大量外汇占款构成了输入性通货膨胀的巨大压力。因此,要解决中国的输入性通货膨胀问题,必须从根本上扭转中国金融外部失衡。
中国金融外部失衡和美元主导的国际货币体系有关。本文认为以美元为主导的国际货币体系是造成中国金融失衡的主要外部原因,美元为主导的国际货币体系造就了国际分工的新格局：美国处于国际分工的顶端位置,通过大量对外直接投资的方式实现产业转移,将落后的产业转移到以中国为首的新兴发展中国家,大力发展金融产业,形成强大的金融优势,为全球提供金融保险等服务业产品；而以中国为首的新兴工业化国家和地区在接受了美国大量的直接投资后,成为“世界工厂”,向全球提供低附加值、高污染、高耗能的加工制造业产品,形成大量贸易顺差和资本金融项目顺差。巨额双顺差积累的以美元为主的外汇储备受美国金融市场的吸引,又以美元国债等有价证券方式流向美国,维持着美国的低储蓄、高消费；维持着美国的贸易赤字、经常账户赤字、财政赤字。然后,美国还将从中国等国家吸引来的资金再以直接投资方式转移到中国,获取中国经济高增长带来的高收益。中美之间在美元主导的货币体系下事实上形成了中国对美证券投资、美国维持贸易逆差的循环。本文通过博弈论的分析认为中美的这种循环在美元主导的国际货币体系下不得不持续下去。因此,要根本扭转中国金融外部失衡问题,中国应积极推进以美元为主导的国际货币体系的改革,成功借鉴美元、日元、英镑、马克、欧元等货币国际化的经验和教训,加快人民币国际化改革。
本文通过理论和实证分析论证了中国的高储蓄、高投资、低消费是造成中国金融外部失衡的内部原因。文章认为,中国的高储蓄、高投资、低消费在一定的外部环境下共同催生着中国金融外部失衡。高企的储蓄、大量外商直接投资促成了中国的高投资,高投资在出口导向型政策、不合理的经济结构、粗放型的经济方式、要素价格扭曲、金融发展不足等因素的影响下,致使企业生产出大量的高污染、高耗能、低附加值的加工制造业产品。与此同时,由于中国的社会保障制度不健全、分配制度不合理、高储蓄不能有效地转化为消费,导致居民消费不足,消费水平远远落后于发达国家和其他新兴发展中国家。这样,企业在出口导向型政策的引导下,只能以出口的方式将大量的产品销售出去。如此而已,形成大量的贸易顺差。贸易顺差和由FDI引起的资本金融项目顺差持续构成了中国巨额的双顺差,一方面对人民币汇率构成巨大压力,使国际游资的流入不断加大,加剧着国际收支双顺差；另一方面,直接表现为外汇储备的增加。也就是说,高储蓄、高投资、低消费相互作用,共同导致了中国金融外部失衡现象。在上述分析的基础上,文章通过E-G两步法和向量误差修正模型、状态空间模型分析了中国的储蓄率、投资率和中国金融外部失衡的关系,分析结果认为储蓄率、投资率对经常项目差额的影响显著,是造成经常项目顺差的主要因素。储蓄率对经常项目失衡的影响是正向的,而投资率对经常项目失衡的影响正好相反；文章还选择了17个代表居民消费能力的指标,通过主成分法获得了居民消费能力的综合变量,然后分析了居民消费对经常账户余额/GDP的的影响。分析认为,居民消费能力是影响经常账户余额/GDP的重要因素。居民消费能力越低,经常账户余额/GDP的比率越大。针对此,论文从改革收入分配制度、完善保障体系、转变经济增长方式、推进利率市场化等金融改革四方面提出改变中国高储蓄、高投资、低消费局面的建议。
本文通过理论和实证分析论证了中国金融发展程度不足是造成中国金融外部失衡的内部原因。本文认为中国的金融发展程度不足在一定程度上加剧着中国的高储蓄、低消费、高投资,也在一定程度上决定着中国的“世界工厂”的角色,进而导致中国大量的贸易顺差；中国的金融发展程度不足在一定程度上决定着中国的资本-金融项目顺差。文章首先选用了3个金融发展的代表性指标对金融发展和中国金融外部失衡的关系进行了实证分析。为了进一步地分析金融发展程度对金融外部失衡的影响,论文又选择了消费率视角,分析了金融发展程度——消费率——中国外部失衡的关系。在对中国金融发展程度的处理上,本文选取了代表中国金融发展程度的11个指标进行了主成分分析,通过提取第一主成分、第二主成分来获得金融发展程度的综合变量。实证分析的结果也印证了中国的金融发展程度不足是造成中国金融外部失衡的主要原因。针对此,论文指出应优化金融结构、提升金融效率,并从加快国有商业银行的改革,优化金融组织结构；加快投融资体制改革,优化市场结构；加快资本市场的发展,改善融资结构；解决金融市场的行政分割问题,改善金融市场的区域结构；加快资产证券化的发展,提升金融效率；发展中小金融机构,为中小企业提供金融支持六个方面提出了相应的解决路径。
Based on the methodology which is provided by Financial Coordination theory, this article analyzes the relationship between external imbalances of China Finance and inputted inflation regarding China current inputted inflation phenomenon as breakthrough point.The result shows that the main reason that resulting in China current inputted inflation is China external finance imbalances.In particular, in the present system of fixed exchange rates, the large number of foreign exchange accumulated by the huge surplus lead to the huge strain of inputted inflation. Therefore, to solve this problem, China must fundamentally reverse the situation of external imbalances.
External imbalances of China finance is related to its external influence. The U.S. dollar-dominated international monetary system, which created a new pattern of international division of labor, is the main external cause of external imbalances. The United States is at the top position of the international division of labor, it has transferred many lagged manufacturing industry to the newly emerging developing countries led by china through the way of a large number of foreign direct investment, and vigorously develop the financial industry to create a strong financial advantage, and provide services for global financial insurance. However, with a large amount of the direct investment, the newly industrialized countries led by China and regions have become the "factory of the world", which provides processing manufacturing products with low value-added, high pollution and high energy-consuming for World. This causes large trade surplus and Capital-Financial Account surplus. The dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves accumulated by the huge surplus are attracted by U.S. financial markets. Meanwhile, it flows into America as some kind of bonds and other securities and so on, not only maintaining America's low savings and high consumption, but also maintaining the U.S. trade deficit, current account deficits and budget deficits. In addition, the United States transfers funds which comes from china and other countries with the way of the direct investment to China to obtain high returns brought by China economic growth. In fact, China and the United States, under the U.S. dollar-dominated international monetary system, has formed a cycle of the United States Securities Investment in China and U.S. maintaining the trade deficit. Through the analysis of game theory, this article thinks that the cycle has to continue under the U.S. dollar-dominated international monetary system. Therefore, in order to reverse fundamentally external imbalances of China finance, China should actively promote the reformation of the U.S. dollar-dominated international monetary system, drawing on international experience and lessons of dollars, yen, pound, mark, the euro and other currencies, to speed up the reformation of the internationalization of RMB.
This article, through theoretical and empirical analysis, demonstrates that China external finance imbalance is caused by internal reasons such as China high savings, high investment and low consumption. The paper argues that China high savings, high investment, and low consumption in certain external environment contribute to the external finance imbalance together. First of all, high saving and a lot of foreign direct investment in China formed a high investment, which lead to a lot of manufacturing products under the influence of the external environment such as the export-oriented policies and irrational economic structure and so on.. At the same time, a serious of problems such as the flaw of China social security system, the unreasonableness of the distribution system and the insufficiency of transferring from high savings to consumption caused residents' consumption shortage. A direct manifestation of consumption shortage is excess capacity, and is also characterized by high savings, so the situation of overcapacity have to continue and finally performed as the external finance imbalance. This paper also analyzes the relationship between China high savings rate and China external imbalance by empirical methods, whose result is consistent with the results of theoretical analysis. To solve the problem of high savings, high investment and high consumption, This paper argues that China should reform distribution system, change the style of economic growth., perfect social security system, speed up the interest rate marketing reform..
This article, through theoretical and empirical analysis, proves that the insufficiency of China financial development is the internal reason of China external finance imbalances. It also argues that the deficiency of China financial development, to some extent, not only exacerbates China high savings, low consumption and high investment, but also determines that China "world factory" role that caused China large trade surplus. The deficiency of China financial development, to some extent, determines China Capital and Financial Account surplus. The empirical analysis result also confirms that inadequate financial development of China is mainly caused by China external finance imbalance. For this, the article pointed out that, to reverse China external imbalance, should optimize the financial structure, enhance China financial development, and improve China financial development degree.
中国金融外部失衡和美元主导的国际货币体系有关。本文认为以美元为主导的国际货币体系是造成中国金融失衡的主要外部原因,美元为主导的国际货币体系造就了国际分工的新格局：美国处于国际分工的顶端位置,通过大量对外直接投资的方式实现产业转移,将落后的产业转移到以中国为首的新兴发展中国家,大力发展金融产业,形成强大的金融优势,为全球提供金融保险等服务业产品；而以中国为首的新兴工业化国家和地区在接受了美国大量的直接投资后,成为“世界工厂”,向全球提供低附加值、高污染、高耗能的加工制造业产品,形成大量贸易顺差和资本金融项目顺差。巨额双顺差积累的以美元为主的外汇储备受美国金融市场的吸引,又以美元国债等有价证券方式流向美国,维持着美国的低储蓄、高消费；维持着美国的贸易赤字、经常账户赤字、财政赤字。然后,美国还将从中国等国家吸引来的资金再以直接投资方式转移到中国,获取中国经济高增长带来的高收益。中美之间在美元主导的货币体系下事实上形成了中国对美证券投资、美国维持贸易逆差的循环。本文通过博弈论的分析认为中美的这种循环在美元主导的国际货币体系下不得不持续下去。因此,要根本扭转中国金融外部失衡问题,中国应积极推进以美元为主导的国际货币体系的改革,成功借鉴美元、日元、英镑、马克、欧元等货币国际化的经验和教训,加快人民币国际化改革。
本文通过理论和实证分析论证了中国的高储蓄、高投资、低消费是造成中国金融外部失衡的内部原因。文章认为,中国的高储蓄、高投资、低消费在一定的外部环境下共同催生着中国金融外部失衡。高企的储蓄、大量外商直接投资促成了中国的高投资,高投资在出口导向型政策、不合理的经济结构、粗放型的经济方式、要素价格扭曲、金融发展不足等因素的影响下,致使企业生产出大量的高污染、高耗能、低附加值的加工制造业产品。与此同时,由于中国的社会保障制度不健全、分配制度不合理、高储蓄不能有效地转化为消费,导致居民消费不足,消费水平远远落后于发达国家和其他新兴发展中国家。这样,企业在出口导向型政策的引导下,只能以出口的方式将大量的产品销售出去。如此而已,形成大量的贸易顺差。贸易顺差和由FDI引起的资本金融项目顺差持续构成了中国巨额的双顺差,一方面对人民币汇率构成巨大压力,使国际游资的流入不断加大,加剧着国际收支双顺差；另一方面,直接表现为外汇储备的增加。也就是说,高储蓄、高投资、低消费相互作用,共同导致了中国金融外部失衡现象。在上述分析的基础上,文章通过E-G两步法和向量误差修正模型、状态空间模型分析了中国的储蓄率、投资率和中国金融外部失衡的关系,分析结果认为储蓄率、投资率对经常项目差额的影响显著,是造成经常项目顺差的主要因素。储蓄率对经常项目失衡的影响是正向的,而投资率对经常项目失衡的影响正好相反；文章还选择了17个代表居民消费能力的指标,通过主成分法获得了居民消费能力的综合变量,然后分析了居民消费对经常账户余额/GDP的的影响。分析认为,居民消费能力是影响经常账户余额/GDP的重要因素。居民消费能力越低,经常账户余额/GDP的比率越大。针对此,论文从改革收入分配制度、完善保障体系、转变经济增长方式、推进利率市场化等金融改革四方面提出改变中国高储蓄、高投资、低消费局面的建议。
本文通过理论和实证分析论证了中国金融发展程度不足是造成中国金融外部失衡的内部原因。本文认为中国的金融发展程度不足在一定程度上加剧着中国的高储蓄、低消费、高投资,也在一定程度上决定着中国的“世界工厂”的角色,进而导致中国大量的贸易顺差；中国的金融发展程度不足在一定程度上决定着中国的资本-金融项目顺差。文章首先选用了3个金融发展的代表性指标对金融发展和中国金融外部失衡的关系进行了实证分析。为了进一步地分析金融发展程度对金融外部失衡的影响,论文又选择了消费率视角,分析了金融发展程度——消费率——中国外部失衡的关系。在对中国金融发展程度的处理上,本文选取了代表中国金融发展程度的11个指标进行了主成分分析,通过提取第一主成分、第二主成分来获得金融发展程度的综合变量。实证分析的结果也印证了中国的金融发展程度不足是造成中国金融外部失衡的主要原因。针对此,论文指出应优化金融结构、提升金融效率,并从加快国有商业银行的改革,优化金融组织结构；加快投融资体制改革,优化市场结构；加快资本市场的发展,改善融资结构；解决金融市场的行政分割问题,改善金融市场的区域结构；加快资产证券化的发展,提升金融效率；发展中小金融机构,为中小企业提供金融支持六个方面提出了相应的解决路径。
Based on the methodology which is provided by Financial Coordination theory, this article analyzes the relationship between external imbalances of China Finance and inputted inflation regarding China current inputted inflation phenomenon as breakthrough point.The result shows that the main reason that resulting in China current inputted inflation is China external finance imbalances.In particular, in the present system of fixed exchange rates, the large number of foreign exchange accumulated by the huge surplus lead to the huge strain of inputted inflation. Therefore, to solve this problem, China must fundamentally reverse the situation of external imbalances.
External imbalances of China finance is related to its external influence. The U.S. dollar-dominated international monetary system, which created a new pattern of international division of labor, is the main external cause of external imbalances. The United States is at the top position of the international division of labor, it has transferred many lagged manufacturing industry to the newly emerging developing countries led by china through the way of a large number of foreign direct investment, and vigorously develop the financial industry to create a strong financial advantage, and provide services for global financial insurance. However, with a large amount of the direct investment, the newly industrialized countries led by China and regions have become the "factory of the world", which provides processing manufacturing products with low value-added, high pollution and high energy-consuming for World. This causes large trade surplus and Capital-Financial Account surplus. The dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves accumulated by the huge surplus are attracted by U.S. financial markets. Meanwhile, it flows into America as some kind of bonds and other securities and so on, not only maintaining America's low savings and high consumption, but also maintaining the U.S. trade deficit, current account deficits and budget deficits. In addition, the United States transfers funds which comes from china and other countries with the way of the direct investment to China to obtain high returns brought by China economic growth. In fact, China and the United States, under the U.S. dollar-dominated international monetary system, has formed a cycle of the United States Securities Investment in China and U.S. maintaining the trade deficit. Through the analysis of game theory, this article thinks that the cycle has to continue under the U.S. dollar-dominated international monetary system. Therefore, in order to reverse fundamentally external imbalances of China finance, China should actively promote the reformation of the U.S. dollar-dominated international monetary system, drawing on international experience and lessons of dollars, yen, pound, mark, the euro and other currencies, to speed up the reformation of the internationalization of RMB.
This article, through theoretical and empirical analysis, demonstrates that China external finance imbalance is caused by internal reasons such as China high savings, high investment and low consumption. The paper argues that China high savings, high investment, and low consumption in certain external environment contribute to the external finance imbalance together. First of all, high saving and a lot of foreign direct investment in China formed a high investment, which lead to a lot of manufacturing products under the influence of the external environment such as the export-oriented policies and irrational economic structure and so on.. At the same time, a serious of problems such as the flaw of China social security system, the unreasonableness of the distribution system and the insufficiency of transferring from high savings to consumption caused residents' consumption shortage. A direct manifestation of consumption shortage is excess capacity, and is also characterized by high savings, so the situation of overcapacity have to continue and finally performed as the external finance imbalance. This paper also analyzes the relationship between China high savings rate and China external imbalance by empirical methods, whose result is consistent with the results of theoretical analysis. To solve the problem of high savings, high investment and high consumption, This paper argues that China should reform distribution system, change the style of economic growth., perfect social security system, speed up the interest rate marketing reform..
This article, through theoretical and empirical analysis, proves that the insufficiency of China financial development is the internal reason of China external finance imbalances. It also argues that the deficiency of China financial development, to some extent, not only exacerbates China high savings, low consumption and high investment, but also determines that China "world factory" role that caused China large trade surplus. The deficiency of China financial development, to some extent, determines China Capital and Financial Account surplus. The empirical analysis result also confirms that inadequate financial development of China is mainly caused by China external finance imbalance. For this, the article pointed out that, to reverse China external imbalance, should optimize the financial structure, enhance China financial development, and improve China financial development degree.
引文
①中国社科院《经济蓝皮书》“2011年我国通胀压力继续增强,CPI或超4%。人民网,2011年4月25日
②中国输入性通货膨胀压力骤增,经济参考报2011年3月7日
③发改委官员：输入性通胀对中国影响日益显示,中国新闻网,2011年4月20日。2011年4月20日,中国际经济交流中心举办十二期“经济每月谈”,国家发改委价格司副司长周望军在会上表示输入性通货膨胀对中国的影响日益显示。
④中国央行：中国输入性通胀压力加大,中财网,2011年5月4日
⑤当前中国通胀是输入性通胀.市场导报,2010年11月23日。樊纲在第八届上海理财博览会高层论坛上讲到“当前中国是输入性通胀”。
⑥央行：国内输入性通胀压力进一步加大.中信金融网,2011年5月4日
⑦下半年我国仍将面临较大的输入性通胀压力.人民网—人民日报,2011年4月26日
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1申亚欣：发改委：八大措施调整收入分配格局缩小贫富差距；2011年12月078日 17:31：人民网
2申亚欣：发改委：八大措施调整收入分配格局缩小贫富差距；2011年12月078日 17:31：人民网
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1申亚欣：发改委：八大措施调整收入分配格局缩小贫富差距；2011年12月078日 17:31：人民网
2申亚欣：发改委：八大措施调整收入分配格局缩小贫富差距；2011年12月078日 17:31：人民网
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