长江中游地区气候变化特点及双季稻适应性高产栽培技术研究
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摘要
气候变化已成为不争事实,且已成为水稻单产徘徊不前、育种技术进步仅能维持单产水平不降的主要原因。如何应对气候变化、充分利用育种技术新成果、提升作物生产系统综合生产能力已成为广泛关注的课题。本研究针对区域性气候变化特点及应对技术研究缺乏、现有宏观层面的气候变化应对策略不能较好地指导区域性特定作物生产系统的现状,以长江中游地区双季稻为研究对象,旨在通过分析该区域近50年来农业气候资源的变化特点,从而提出该区域气候变化对双季稻生产的可能影响以及双季稻生产的气候变化适应性要求,并研究品种类型、品种搭配、播种期安排等方面的气候变化适应技术,最终形成较系统的气候变化适应理论与技术体系,为该地区双季稻持续高产稳产提供理论依据与技术指导,得到以下主要结果：
1、长江中游地区农业气候资源变化特点
为了解长江中游地区农业气候资源变化特点,为双季稻气候变化适应技术研究与技术对策制定提供理论依据,分析了该地区50个气象台站1960-2009年主要农业气候资源的变化特点,结果表明,近50年来,该地区年平均气温的平均增速为0.179。C/10a,年平均日最高气温的平均增速为0.145℃/10a,年最低日平均气温的平均增率为0.23。C/10a,≥0℃积温平均增速为70.8℃/10a,≥10℃积温平均增速为66.3。C/10a,年日照时数平均减少速率为57.2h/10a,年降水量平均增速为5.1mm/10a.温度生长期内的年平均气温增温速率为0.08℃/10a,年平均日最高气温平均增速为0.07℃/10a,年平均日最低气温平均增速为0.09℃/10a,均明显少于其年平均增速,因此,该地区主要以非温度生长期增温为主,而温度生长期则增温不明显,且日最低气温增加最显著。双季早稻生长期内的平均气温、平均日最高气温、平均日最低气温、≥10℃积温的增加速率分别为0.20℃/10a、0.20℃/10a.0.22℃/10a、48.9℃/10a,双季晚稻生长期内的平均气温、平均日最高气温、平均日最低气温、≥10℃积温的增加速率分别为0.09℃/10a、0.03℃/10a.0.17℃/10a.14.6℃/10a,均小于双季早稻生长期内的增加速率,双季晚稻生长期内的日照时数下降速率为42.7h/10a,显著大于双季早稻生长期内日照时数的下降速率18.6h/10a,上述结果预示该地区双季早晚稻受气候变化的影响以及适应其变化的技术对策存大巨大差异。同时,该地区的光热水资源变化特点具有较大的地域差异性,湖北省荆州、天门、武汉一线的江汉平原,湖南省岳阳、沅江一带的洞庭湖区,以及江西省景德镇、樟树等地区具有热量、日照、降水同步增加的变化特点,气候变化呈暖湿化,结果预示这些区域因光热水同季且同步增加,将有利于双季稻产量及产量潜力的增加。
2、长江中游地区双季稻安全生产季节变化特点
在分析农业气候资源变化特点的基础上,分析该地区安全播种期等双季稻安全生产季节的变化特点,为该地区双季稻气候变化适应性生产提供最直接的技术指导,结果表明,双季早稻旱育秧安全播种期的变化倾向率为-0.9d/10a,双季早稻水育秧安全播种期的变化倾向率为-1.6d/10a,双季早稻安全移栽期的变化倾向率为-2.1d/10a,双季杂交晚籼稻安全齐穗期的变化倾向率为-0.8d/10a,双季常规晚籼稻安全齐穗期的变化倾向率为0.01d/10a,双季晚稻安全成熟期的变化倾向率为1.1d/1Oa,双季早稻旱育秧条件下双季稻安全生长季节天数的变化倾向率为0.2d/10a,双季早稻水育秧条件下双季稻安全生长季节天数的变化倾向率为0.3d/10a。前后25年80%保证率的安全生产季节比较,后25年双季早稻旱育秧安全播种期在3月24日、推迟了3d,水育秧安全播种期在4月8日、提前了3d,安全移栽期在4月26日、提前了4d,双季杂交晚籼稻的安全齐穗期在9月1日、提前了3d,双季常规晚籼稻的安全齐穗期在9月9日、推迟了1d,双季晚籼稻的安全成熟期在10月16日、基本没有变化,双季早稻旱育秧条件下的双季稻安全生产季节天数为213天、缩短了4d,双季早稻水育秧条件下的双季稻安全生产季节天数为196天,延长了1d。上述结果预示该地区的安全生产季节并未像东北等地区那样变化明显,因此,在双季稻种植方式与品种搭配选择上不能盲从气候变暖,应视具体地区情况而定。
3、气候变化适应性品种类型及其特征
以超级杂交稻、普通杂交稻、常规水稻等3种不同类型品种为材料,旨在结合长江中游地区气候变化特点对双季稻生产的可能影响与适应性要求,提出适应其气候变化特点与要求的双季稻品种类型及其生理生态特征。结果表明,双季超级杂交稻特别是超级杂交早稻具有干物质生产积累优势强、生育期略长、上部功能叶蒸腾速率低但净光合速率相当、下部功能叶蒸腾速率相当但净光合速率高的生理生态特点,结合相关研究认为超级杂交稻具有株叶形态好、冠层结构合理且通风透光性好的形态特点,因此,双季超级杂交稻具有能较好适应长江中游地区气候变化对双季稻品种提出的干物质生产积累能力强、生育期稍长、耐旱、光合能力强、耐寡照等要求的生理生态特性。而且双季超级杂交稻的品种搭配类型具有较其他品种搭配类型更强的产量优势。上述结果预示从气候变化适应性与产量两方面因素考虑,双季超级杂交稻为气候变化适应型品种。
4、气候变化适应性双季稻品种搭配技术
在确定双季超级杂交稻品种为气候变化适应型品种的基础上,在湖南省不同双季稻区开展双季超级杂交稻品种熟期搭配方式的生态适应性研究,旨在初步提出各地区适宜的双季稻熟期搭配方式,结果表明,双季早稻产量高于双季晚稻,但产量稳定性低于双季晚稻,造成双季早稻产量稳定性差异的因素主要是有效穗,而双季晚稻主要有有效穗、总粒数、实粒数、结实率等,其中影响最大是有效穗。综合温光资源的安全高效利用以及各地生产实际与本研究结果,初步认为湘北地区、湘东地区宜推广应用早熟早稻+迟熟晚稻搭配方式,湘中和湘南地区宜推广应用迟熟早稻+迟熟晚稻、迟熟早稻+中熟晚稻等生长期相对较长的搭配方式。
5、气候变化适应性双季稻播种期安排技术
在初步明确各地适宜的双季稻熟期搭配方式的基础上,在湖南省不同双季稻区开展分期播种试验,旨在进一步明确各地气候变化适应性双季稻品种搭配方式及其播种期安排技术,结果表明,在充分考虑双季茬口衔接和平衡增产的前提下,湖南省不同双季稻区双季早稻以选择迟熟型超级杂交稻品种为主,湘北地区安排在3月25日左右播种,湘中地区和湘南地区安排在3月20日左右播种,双季晚稻的品种熟期选择与播期安排相对复杂,因地理纬度不同进行决定,湘北地区以选择早熟或中熟型超级杂交品种为主,播种期安排6月25日左右,湘中地区与湘南地区则以选迟熟型超级杂交稻品种为主,播种期安排在6月20日左右。
Climate change has become an undoubted fact and a main reason why rice yield stagnates and breeding technology advancement just maintains the rice yield level. How to reply to climate change, to fully use recent breeding achievements and to enhance the integrate productivity of crop has become an attractive question. According to the lack of study on climate change and its coping technology, and the actuality of current coping technology can not well guide the crop system production of certain area, the double-season rice in middle reach of the Yangtze River was selected as research object in this study. Firstly, the change characteristics of agricultural climate resources of the last50years and its influences on double-season rice were analyzed in order to put forward adaptive requirements. Then some adaptive coping technologies including variety type, variety combination pattern, sowing date arrangement and so on were investigated. Finally, a coping theory and technology system which will provide theoretic and technical guidance for sustaining high and steady yield of double-season rice in middle reach of the Yangtze River. Some valuable results were obtained as follows.
1. Change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in middle reach of the Yangtze River
Change characteristics of agricultural climate resources of50meteorologic stations from1960to2005were analyzed in order to provider theoretic basis for adaptive coping technology study and coping countermeasure establishment. During last50year, the mean annual temperature increased by0.179℃/10a, annual mean daily maximal temperature increased by0.145℃/10a, annual mean daily minimum temperature increased by0.23℃/10a,≥0℃accumulated temperature increased by70.8℃/10a,≥10℃accumulated temperature increased by66.3℃/10a, annual sunshine hours decreased by57.2h/10a, and annual precipitation increased by5.1mm/10a. While the increase speed of the mean annual temperature, annual mean daily maximal temperature and annual mean daily minimum temperature in temperature-defined growth season was0.08℃/10a,0.07℃/10a and0.09℃/10a respectively, obviously lower than those of the whole year. Therefore, the main change characteristic was that the temperature in temperature-defined growth season increased more obviously than the other season, and the increase speed of the annual mean daily minimum temperature was the most obvious. The increase speed of the mean annual temperature, annual mean daily maximal temperature and annual mean daily minimum temperature,≥10℃accumulated temperature during early-season rice growth period was0.20℃/10a,0.20℃/10a,0.22℃/10a and48.9℃/10a respectively. The increase speed of the mean annual temperature, annual mean daily maximal temperature and annual mean daily minimum temperature,≥10℃accumulated temperature during late-season rice growth period was0.09℃/10a,0.03℃/10a,0.17℃/10a and14.6℃/10a respectively. All of them less than those during early-season rice growth period. The decrease speed of sunshine hours during late-season rice growth period was42.7h/10a, more than18.6h/10a during early-season rice growth period. It could be concluded that the climate change influence and its coping technology was different between early-season rice growth period and late-season rice growth period. At the same time, another main change characteristic was spatial variation. There were synchronal increase trend for heat, sunshine hour and precipitation in the Dongting Lake area of Hunan Province, the Jianghan Plain area of Hubei Province, the Jingdezhen and Zhangshu area of Jiangxi Province. It could be concluded that the yield and yield potential of double-season rice will enhance sharply because of the heat, sunshine hour and precipitation in these area increase synchronously.
2. Change characteristics of safe dates for double-season rice production in middle reach of the Yangtze River
In order to provide technical instruction for safe production of double-season rice, the change characteristics of safe dates for double-season rice production were analyzed on the basis of analysis on change of agricultural climate resources. The results indicated that the change climate trend was-0.9d/10a for safe sowing of early-season rice seedling raising in dry nursery, was-1.6d/10a for safe sowing of early-season rice seedling raising in wet nursery, was-2.1d/10a for safe transplanting of early-season rice, was-0.8d/10a for safe full heading of late-season hybrid indica rice, was0.01d/10a for safe full heading of late-season inbred indica rice, was1.1d/10a for safe maturity of late-season rice, was0.2d/10a for days of safe growth season of the double-season rice whose early rice seedling raised in dry nursery, and was0.3d/10a for days of safe growth season of the double-season rice whose early rice seedling raised in wet nursery. Compared with the safe date of the first25years from1960to1984, the safe date with80%guarantee rate of the second25years from1985to2009was March24th and delayed by3days for sowing of dry nursery seedling of early-season rice, was April8th and advanced by3days for sowing of wet nursery seedling of early-season rice, was April26th and advanced by4days for transplanting of early-season rice, was September1st and advanced by3days for full heading of late-season hybrid indica rice, was September9th and delayed by1days for full heading of late-season inbred indica rice, was October16th and no difference for maturity of late-season rice. Furthermore, the days of safe growth season with80%guarantee rate of the second25years from1985to2009was213and shortened by4days for dry nursery seedling of early-season rice, and was196and prolonged by1day for wet nursery seedling of early-season rice compared with the days of safe growth season of the first25years from1960to1984. The results above indicated that the safe production season in this region did not change obviously like as the northeast and other regions. Therefore, the planting mode and variety pattern selection can not follow like sheep the global warming, must be decided according to change concrete instance of agricultural climate resources of different regions.
3. Adaptive variety type and its character to climate change
In order to put forward adaptive variety type and its character to climate change, the super hybrid rice, common hybrid rice and inbred rice were selected as material in this study by combining the results of this study with the influence and adaptive requirements of climate change on double-season rice. The results indicated that super hybrid rice varieties had more dry matter accumulation, longer growth duration, lower transpiration rate but equivalent net photosynthetic rate in upper functionary leaves, higher net photosynthetic rate but equivalent transpiration rate in lower functionary leaves compared with common hybrid rice and inbred rice. At the same time, super hybrid rice had wonderful plant configuration such as good plant type, reasonable canopy structure and so on according to the results achieved in other relative research. Therefore, double-season super hybrid rice could meet well the demands such as more dry matter production and accumulation, longer growth duration, drought tolerance, higher photosynthetic rate and shadow tolerance brought forward by climate change for double-season rice to adapt. Furthermore, double-season super hybrid rice had higher yield and yield potential than other rice variety. The results above indicated that double-season super hybrid rice was the adaptive variety type to climate change in this region from climate change adaptation and yield to consider.
4. Adaptive variety pattern to climate change
In order to know adaptive variety pattern in different double-season rice planting area, an adaptive study was conducted on the basis of former research. The results in this study showed that the yield of early-season rice higher than that of late-season rice, but the yield stability lower than that of late-season rice. The factor resulting in yield stability for early-season rice was the number of effective panicle. However, the influence factor was complex including number of effective panicle, number of spikelets per panicle, number of full spikelets per panicle and seed-setting rate, but the number of effective panicle was the first factor among them for late-season rice. If the safe and high utility of agricultural climate resources and production practice of different region were considered integrative, we could think the variety pattern of early-season rice with early maturity and late-season rice with late maturity in northern and eastern Hunan, of early-season rice with late maturity and late-season rice with late maturity or early-season rice with late maturity and late-season rice with middle maturity in mid and southern Hunan should be selected.
5. Adaptive sowing date arrangement to climate change
A interval sowing date trial in different area in Hunan Province was conducted for bring out the adaptive variety pattern and suitable sowing date to climate change. The results showed that super hybrid rice with late maturity variety could be selected in early-season rice production in all double-season rice planting area of Hunan Province, and the suitable sowing date was March25th in northern region, was March20th in mid and southern region. In late-season rice production, the selection of variety pattern and sowing date arrangement was relatively complex and must be decided according to latitude. In northern region of Hunan Province, super hybrid rice with early or middle maturity could be chosen, and suitable sowing date could be arranged at June25th around. In mid and southern region of Hunan Province, super hybrid rice with late maturity could be chosen, and suitable sowing date could be arranged at June20th around.
1、长江中游地区农业气候资源变化特点
为了解长江中游地区农业气候资源变化特点,为双季稻气候变化适应技术研究与技术对策制定提供理论依据,分析了该地区50个气象台站1960-2009年主要农业气候资源的变化特点,结果表明,近50年来,该地区年平均气温的平均增速为0.179。C/10a,年平均日最高气温的平均增速为0.145℃/10a,年最低日平均气温的平均增率为0.23。C/10a,≥0℃积温平均增速为70.8℃/10a,≥10℃积温平均增速为66.3。C/10a,年日照时数平均减少速率为57.2h/10a,年降水量平均增速为5.1mm/10a.温度生长期内的年平均气温增温速率为0.08℃/10a,年平均日最高气温平均增速为0.07℃/10a,年平均日最低气温平均增速为0.09℃/10a,均明显少于其年平均增速,因此,该地区主要以非温度生长期增温为主,而温度生长期则增温不明显,且日最低气温增加最显著。双季早稻生长期内的平均气温、平均日最高气温、平均日最低气温、≥10℃积温的增加速率分别为0.20℃/10a、0.20℃/10a.0.22℃/10a、48.9℃/10a,双季晚稻生长期内的平均气温、平均日最高气温、平均日最低气温、≥10℃积温的增加速率分别为0.09℃/10a、0.03℃/10a.0.17℃/10a.14.6℃/10a,均小于双季早稻生长期内的增加速率,双季晚稻生长期内的日照时数下降速率为42.7h/10a,显著大于双季早稻生长期内日照时数的下降速率18.6h/10a,上述结果预示该地区双季早晚稻受气候变化的影响以及适应其变化的技术对策存大巨大差异。同时,该地区的光热水资源变化特点具有较大的地域差异性,湖北省荆州、天门、武汉一线的江汉平原,湖南省岳阳、沅江一带的洞庭湖区,以及江西省景德镇、樟树等地区具有热量、日照、降水同步增加的变化特点,气候变化呈暖湿化,结果预示这些区域因光热水同季且同步增加,将有利于双季稻产量及产量潜力的增加。
2、长江中游地区双季稻安全生产季节变化特点
在分析农业气候资源变化特点的基础上,分析该地区安全播种期等双季稻安全生产季节的变化特点,为该地区双季稻气候变化适应性生产提供最直接的技术指导,结果表明,双季早稻旱育秧安全播种期的变化倾向率为-0.9d/10a,双季早稻水育秧安全播种期的变化倾向率为-1.6d/10a,双季早稻安全移栽期的变化倾向率为-2.1d/10a,双季杂交晚籼稻安全齐穗期的变化倾向率为-0.8d/10a,双季常规晚籼稻安全齐穗期的变化倾向率为0.01d/10a,双季晚稻安全成熟期的变化倾向率为1.1d/1Oa,双季早稻旱育秧条件下双季稻安全生长季节天数的变化倾向率为0.2d/10a,双季早稻水育秧条件下双季稻安全生长季节天数的变化倾向率为0.3d/10a。前后25年80%保证率的安全生产季节比较,后25年双季早稻旱育秧安全播种期在3月24日、推迟了3d,水育秧安全播种期在4月8日、提前了3d,安全移栽期在4月26日、提前了4d,双季杂交晚籼稻的安全齐穗期在9月1日、提前了3d,双季常规晚籼稻的安全齐穗期在9月9日、推迟了1d,双季晚籼稻的安全成熟期在10月16日、基本没有变化,双季早稻旱育秧条件下的双季稻安全生产季节天数为213天、缩短了4d,双季早稻水育秧条件下的双季稻安全生产季节天数为196天,延长了1d。上述结果预示该地区的安全生产季节并未像东北等地区那样变化明显,因此,在双季稻种植方式与品种搭配选择上不能盲从气候变暖,应视具体地区情况而定。
3、气候变化适应性品种类型及其特征
以超级杂交稻、普通杂交稻、常规水稻等3种不同类型品种为材料,旨在结合长江中游地区气候变化特点对双季稻生产的可能影响与适应性要求,提出适应其气候变化特点与要求的双季稻品种类型及其生理生态特征。结果表明,双季超级杂交稻特别是超级杂交早稻具有干物质生产积累优势强、生育期略长、上部功能叶蒸腾速率低但净光合速率相当、下部功能叶蒸腾速率相当但净光合速率高的生理生态特点,结合相关研究认为超级杂交稻具有株叶形态好、冠层结构合理且通风透光性好的形态特点,因此,双季超级杂交稻具有能较好适应长江中游地区气候变化对双季稻品种提出的干物质生产积累能力强、生育期稍长、耐旱、光合能力强、耐寡照等要求的生理生态特性。而且双季超级杂交稻的品种搭配类型具有较其他品种搭配类型更强的产量优势。上述结果预示从气候变化适应性与产量两方面因素考虑,双季超级杂交稻为气候变化适应型品种。
4、气候变化适应性双季稻品种搭配技术
在确定双季超级杂交稻品种为气候变化适应型品种的基础上,在湖南省不同双季稻区开展双季超级杂交稻品种熟期搭配方式的生态适应性研究,旨在初步提出各地区适宜的双季稻熟期搭配方式,结果表明,双季早稻产量高于双季晚稻,但产量稳定性低于双季晚稻,造成双季早稻产量稳定性差异的因素主要是有效穗,而双季晚稻主要有有效穗、总粒数、实粒数、结实率等,其中影响最大是有效穗。综合温光资源的安全高效利用以及各地生产实际与本研究结果,初步认为湘北地区、湘东地区宜推广应用早熟早稻+迟熟晚稻搭配方式,湘中和湘南地区宜推广应用迟熟早稻+迟熟晚稻、迟熟早稻+中熟晚稻等生长期相对较长的搭配方式。
5、气候变化适应性双季稻播种期安排技术
在初步明确各地适宜的双季稻熟期搭配方式的基础上,在湖南省不同双季稻区开展分期播种试验,旨在进一步明确各地气候变化适应性双季稻品种搭配方式及其播种期安排技术,结果表明,在充分考虑双季茬口衔接和平衡增产的前提下,湖南省不同双季稻区双季早稻以选择迟熟型超级杂交稻品种为主,湘北地区安排在3月25日左右播种,湘中地区和湘南地区安排在3月20日左右播种,双季晚稻的品种熟期选择与播期安排相对复杂,因地理纬度不同进行决定,湘北地区以选择早熟或中熟型超级杂交品种为主,播种期安排6月25日左右,湘中地区与湘南地区则以选迟熟型超级杂交稻品种为主,播种期安排在6月20日左右。
Climate change has become an undoubted fact and a main reason why rice yield stagnates and breeding technology advancement just maintains the rice yield level. How to reply to climate change, to fully use recent breeding achievements and to enhance the integrate productivity of crop has become an attractive question. According to the lack of study on climate change and its coping technology, and the actuality of current coping technology can not well guide the crop system production of certain area, the double-season rice in middle reach of the Yangtze River was selected as research object in this study. Firstly, the change characteristics of agricultural climate resources of the last50years and its influences on double-season rice were analyzed in order to put forward adaptive requirements. Then some adaptive coping technologies including variety type, variety combination pattern, sowing date arrangement and so on were investigated. Finally, a coping theory and technology system which will provide theoretic and technical guidance for sustaining high and steady yield of double-season rice in middle reach of the Yangtze River. Some valuable results were obtained as follows.
1. Change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in middle reach of the Yangtze River
Change characteristics of agricultural climate resources of50meteorologic stations from1960to2005were analyzed in order to provider theoretic basis for adaptive coping technology study and coping countermeasure establishment. During last50year, the mean annual temperature increased by0.179℃/10a, annual mean daily maximal temperature increased by0.145℃/10a, annual mean daily minimum temperature increased by0.23℃/10a,≥0℃accumulated temperature increased by70.8℃/10a,≥10℃accumulated temperature increased by66.3℃/10a, annual sunshine hours decreased by57.2h/10a, and annual precipitation increased by5.1mm/10a. While the increase speed of the mean annual temperature, annual mean daily maximal temperature and annual mean daily minimum temperature in temperature-defined growth season was0.08℃/10a,0.07℃/10a and0.09℃/10a respectively, obviously lower than those of the whole year. Therefore, the main change characteristic was that the temperature in temperature-defined growth season increased more obviously than the other season, and the increase speed of the annual mean daily minimum temperature was the most obvious. The increase speed of the mean annual temperature, annual mean daily maximal temperature and annual mean daily minimum temperature,≥10℃accumulated temperature during early-season rice growth period was0.20℃/10a,0.20℃/10a,0.22℃/10a and48.9℃/10a respectively. The increase speed of the mean annual temperature, annual mean daily maximal temperature and annual mean daily minimum temperature,≥10℃accumulated temperature during late-season rice growth period was0.09℃/10a,0.03℃/10a,0.17℃/10a and14.6℃/10a respectively. All of them less than those during early-season rice growth period. The decrease speed of sunshine hours during late-season rice growth period was42.7h/10a, more than18.6h/10a during early-season rice growth period. It could be concluded that the climate change influence and its coping technology was different between early-season rice growth period and late-season rice growth period. At the same time, another main change characteristic was spatial variation. There were synchronal increase trend for heat, sunshine hour and precipitation in the Dongting Lake area of Hunan Province, the Jianghan Plain area of Hubei Province, the Jingdezhen and Zhangshu area of Jiangxi Province. It could be concluded that the yield and yield potential of double-season rice will enhance sharply because of the heat, sunshine hour and precipitation in these area increase synchronously.
2. Change characteristics of safe dates for double-season rice production in middle reach of the Yangtze River
In order to provide technical instruction for safe production of double-season rice, the change characteristics of safe dates for double-season rice production were analyzed on the basis of analysis on change of agricultural climate resources. The results indicated that the change climate trend was-0.9d/10a for safe sowing of early-season rice seedling raising in dry nursery, was-1.6d/10a for safe sowing of early-season rice seedling raising in wet nursery, was-2.1d/10a for safe transplanting of early-season rice, was-0.8d/10a for safe full heading of late-season hybrid indica rice, was0.01d/10a for safe full heading of late-season inbred indica rice, was1.1d/10a for safe maturity of late-season rice, was0.2d/10a for days of safe growth season of the double-season rice whose early rice seedling raised in dry nursery, and was0.3d/10a for days of safe growth season of the double-season rice whose early rice seedling raised in wet nursery. Compared with the safe date of the first25years from1960to1984, the safe date with80%guarantee rate of the second25years from1985to2009was March24th and delayed by3days for sowing of dry nursery seedling of early-season rice, was April8th and advanced by3days for sowing of wet nursery seedling of early-season rice, was April26th and advanced by4days for transplanting of early-season rice, was September1st and advanced by3days for full heading of late-season hybrid indica rice, was September9th and delayed by1days for full heading of late-season inbred indica rice, was October16th and no difference for maturity of late-season rice. Furthermore, the days of safe growth season with80%guarantee rate of the second25years from1985to2009was213and shortened by4days for dry nursery seedling of early-season rice, and was196and prolonged by1day for wet nursery seedling of early-season rice compared with the days of safe growth season of the first25years from1960to1984. The results above indicated that the safe production season in this region did not change obviously like as the northeast and other regions. Therefore, the planting mode and variety pattern selection can not follow like sheep the global warming, must be decided according to change concrete instance of agricultural climate resources of different regions.
3. Adaptive variety type and its character to climate change
In order to put forward adaptive variety type and its character to climate change, the super hybrid rice, common hybrid rice and inbred rice were selected as material in this study by combining the results of this study with the influence and adaptive requirements of climate change on double-season rice. The results indicated that super hybrid rice varieties had more dry matter accumulation, longer growth duration, lower transpiration rate but equivalent net photosynthetic rate in upper functionary leaves, higher net photosynthetic rate but equivalent transpiration rate in lower functionary leaves compared with common hybrid rice and inbred rice. At the same time, super hybrid rice had wonderful plant configuration such as good plant type, reasonable canopy structure and so on according to the results achieved in other relative research. Therefore, double-season super hybrid rice could meet well the demands such as more dry matter production and accumulation, longer growth duration, drought tolerance, higher photosynthetic rate and shadow tolerance brought forward by climate change for double-season rice to adapt. Furthermore, double-season super hybrid rice had higher yield and yield potential than other rice variety. The results above indicated that double-season super hybrid rice was the adaptive variety type to climate change in this region from climate change adaptation and yield to consider.
4. Adaptive variety pattern to climate change
In order to know adaptive variety pattern in different double-season rice planting area, an adaptive study was conducted on the basis of former research. The results in this study showed that the yield of early-season rice higher than that of late-season rice, but the yield stability lower than that of late-season rice. The factor resulting in yield stability for early-season rice was the number of effective panicle. However, the influence factor was complex including number of effective panicle, number of spikelets per panicle, number of full spikelets per panicle and seed-setting rate, but the number of effective panicle was the first factor among them for late-season rice. If the safe and high utility of agricultural climate resources and production practice of different region were considered integrative, we could think the variety pattern of early-season rice with early maturity and late-season rice with late maturity in northern and eastern Hunan, of early-season rice with late maturity and late-season rice with late maturity or early-season rice with late maturity and late-season rice with middle maturity in mid and southern Hunan should be selected.
5. Adaptive sowing date arrangement to climate change
A interval sowing date trial in different area in Hunan Province was conducted for bring out the adaptive variety pattern and suitable sowing date to climate change. The results showed that super hybrid rice with late maturity variety could be selected in early-season rice production in all double-season rice planting area of Hunan Province, and the suitable sowing date was March25th in northern region, was March20th in mid and southern region. In late-season rice production, the selection of variety pattern and sowing date arrangement was relatively complex and must be decided according to latitude. In northern region of Hunan Province, super hybrid rice with early or middle maturity could be chosen, and suitable sowing date could be arranged at June25th around. In mid and southern region of Hunan Province, super hybrid rice with late maturity could be chosen, and suitable sowing date could be arranged at June20th around.
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[1]吴志祥,周兆德.气候变化对我国农业生产的影响及对策[J].华南热带农业大学学报,2004,10(2)：7-11.
[2]葛道阔,金之庆,石春林,等.气候变化对中国南方水稻生产的阶段性影响及适应性对策[J].江苏农业学报,2002,18(1)：1-8.
[3]Wang J, Wang E, Yang X G, et al. Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation[J]. Climatic Change, 2012,Pubished Online:03 January.
[4]Yun Y R, Fang X Q, Qiao D F. Main grain crops structure change in Heilongjiang Province of China in the past 20 years:25th IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS 2005), Seoul, South Korea,2005[C]. IGARSS 2005:IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, Vols 1-8, Proceedings.
[5]Chen C Q, Qian C R, Deng A X, et al. Progressive and active adaptations of cropping system to climate change in Northeast China[J]. European Journal of Agronomy,2011 (in press).
[6]Mainuddin M, Kirby M, Hoanh C T. Adaptation to climate change for food security in the lower Mekong Basin[J]. Food Sec,2011,3:433-450.
[7]Murdiyarso D. Adaptation to climatic variability and change asian perspectives on agriculture and food security[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2000,61:123-131.
[8]Shimono H, Kanno H, Sawano S. Can the cropping schedule of rice be adapted to changing climate? A case study in cool areas of northern Japan[J]. Field Crops Research, 2010,118:126-134.
[9]Mukand B S, Anshul A, Kumar S D, et al. Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand[J]. Climate Research, 2011,46(2):137-146.
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