基于元胞自动机的水运枢纽运输组织研究
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摘要
近年来,内河运输凭借其成本低、能耗低、污染少、占地省的优势逐渐在国民经济中扮演着越来越重要的角色,内河航运运输需求不断攀升。与此同时,由于当年工程设计水平的局限性,使得部分水运枢纽船闸实际运行效率远未达到设计水平,这一尴尬现实导致部分水运枢纽船闸通过能力不足的问题日益突出。特别是在大雾等自然条件的影响下,内河航段船舶拥堵现象更为严重。因此,本文以三峡枢纽为对象,研究三峡枢纽在常规条件下船舶流在过坝时的特征、不同翻坝方案选择时船舶流的走向和大雾等自然天气影响下的安全距离等问题,将水上交通的特点与传统道路交通流理论结合起来,利用元胞自动机原理构建模拟模型,从而优化三峡枢纽的运输组织模式,使得当前三峡枢纽运输组织更趋科学、合理、有序,最大程度上提高船闸的综合通过能力及利用率,为内河运力的发展解除后顾之忧。论文主要研究内容及成果如下：
1)将道路交通流的传统定义与船舶流的相似点相结合,提出了船舶交通流的定义,并分析了船舶交通流的三个关键要素；从元胞自动机的基本理论出发,以整个水运枢纽系统为对象介绍了元胞自动机四大基本元素----元胞、元胞空间、邻居和演化规则的基本概念和在本文中的设定,为构建复杂的元胞自动机模型理清思路和奠定基础。
2)分析了多个船舶领域模型的构成与特点,相互比较后选取适用于元胞自动机建模的藤井模型做为本文船舶领域的基础模型,并将其引入以N-S模型为基础的跟驰模型和换道模型中,通过改进原有加、减速规则得到了符合船舶交通流特点的考虑船舶领域影响的水上单通道和多通道CA改进模型。水上单通道CA模型以跟驰模型为基础,将船头距的大小作为后方船舶是否加减速的决定因素；水上多通道CA模型以换道模型为基础,分析后方船舶在追越过程中追赶、并行、超越三阶段船间距对加、减速的决定作用。
3)在分析了三峡库区过闸的现状和存在问题的基础上,分别研究双向船闸和考虑升船机在内的三通道过闸运输组织方式,结合高速公路船闸模型、升船机适用条件和船舶过闸调度原理,构建了水运枢纽过闸运输组织模型；另外将排队论与元胞自动机结合构建了基于排队论的元胞自动机模型。
4)以三峡翻坝公路为研究背景,分析现行翻坝运输的特点和不同翻坝方案的走向,以还原船舶流流向为根本出发点,构建了翻坝运输组织模型；并研究在陆-水翻坝过程中,滚装船汇入主航道对行进中的船舶造成的影响,构建了翻坝陆-水入口模型。
5)通过分析雾情对三峡库区船舶运输的影响,研究并得出了船舶运输组织方式在相应情况下的特征函数,结合现有船舶运输组织方式,构建了雾航限速元胞自动机模型。在雾情影响下,主要考虑了驾驶员视距对前方船舶行为反应的延迟影响和船舶突然进入雾区采取制动后的船舶运动状态。
本文将航道划分成若干网格、船舶看做元胞在网格上移动,从新的视角对水运枢纽区域运输组织中的船舶跟驰、船舶追越、船舶过闸、船舶翻坝等微观行为进行模拟,不仅拓展了元胞自动机理论的应用范围,更深化和完善了水运运输组织优化理论,为水运枢纽区域运输组织优化提供科学依据,对减少船舶过闸排队时间,提高水运枢纽综合通过能力具有现实意义。
In recent years, by virtue of the advantages of low costs, low consumption, and low pollution, inland waterway transportation is playing increasingly important role in national economy, and the demand of inland water transportation is growing. Meanwhile, because of the limitation of the previous engineering design level, the actual operation efficiency of partial ship lock of the water transportation hub is far from the design level. This awkward situation led the problem of insufficient lock capacity in some of the water transportation hubs. Especially when being influenced by natural situation, for example, flood, low flow and fog, the traffic jam for inland water transportation is particularly serious. Therefore, this article will analyze the transportation and organization mode in natural disaster with the object of three gorges hydro-junction area. Based on the traffic flow theory, this paper analyzes the characters of the running of ships. Moreover, Cellular Automata theory is utilized for establishing simulation model, optimizing the transportation and organization mode of the three gorges hydro-junction area, allowing Scheduling of ships in the three gorges hydro-junction area more scientific, reasonable and orderly. By doing so, it is also expected to further enhance the lock capacity and utilization rate, eliminating the anxieties on the development of inland waterway transportation. The main research content and achievements are given as follows:
1) Through combination of the traditional definition of road traffic flow with the ship traffic flow, the definition of aquatic traffic flow is proposed, while the three key elements for aquatic traffic flow are also analyzed. Proceeding from the basic Cellular Automata theory, it introduces the basic structure and changing rules of aquatic one-way CA model and aquatic multiple-way CA model, and analyzes the structures and features of multiple ship domain models. After comparison, FUJII Model, which is suitable for Cellular Automata modeling, is selected as the basic model in this paper. It will be one of the most important parameters—the basis for bow distance calculation.
2) By considering the unique undulation effect of water transportation on ships based on the N-S model, the concept of the marine sector is introduced; the original rules of acceleration and deceleration are improved; an updated CA model of appropriate single-channel as well as multi-channels on water transportation is put forward. With ship-following as the basis, for single channel of CA model on water transportation, distance between bows of ships is regarded as the determinant factor of conducting acceleration or deceleration; while for multi-channel CA model on water, on basis of channel changing model, analysis is made on the decisive role of overtaking, parallelizing and surpassing during the chasing process on acceleration and deceleration.
3) Through an analysis on the current lockage status as well as existing problems of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, in addition to separate studies on the arrangement methods of two-channel ship locks and ship shift inclusive three-channel locks, by combination with highway toll station model, applied conditions for ship lift and ship lock scheduling principle, a dual-channel and multi-channel model of ship lock have been built, and an analysis on simulation results is given.
4) Under the natural conditions such as fogs, floods, and low flow impact, corresponding characteristic functions of ship transportation organization mode are figured out, by combination with the current ship transportation mode, cellular automata models are built corresponding to the impact factors. With fog conditions, taking major considerations on the delay effect of drivers'visibility range on reactions to the ships in front, a ship transportation mode under fog conditions is constructed; while under the impact of floods, considering mainly the influence of water flow on the speed of ships and forces between ships, a ship transportation mode under floods is constructed; with low flow seasons, in view of the impact of less draft on the density of ships in the reservoir area, a shipping model under low flow seasons is designed.
5) With the research background of passing the dam to the Three Gorges, an analysis is made on the flow characteristics of different kinds of goods. During the modeling process, definitions of cellular length are made according to characteristics of ships for major cargo species. With separations of goods suitable for road transportation from the cargoes through regular lockage, on basis of lockage model of ships discussed in Chapter4, transportation modes for specific cargoes are constructed and empirical studies are carried out on simulation models with historical data of the Three Gorges as the basis.
The paper, regarding ships as cellular, makes simulations from a new perspective on the ship following, ship overtaking and ship lockage of regional transport organizations in the water transport hubs, not only expanding applications of the cellular automata theory, but more importantly deepening and improving the optimization theory of water transportation, which has provided scientific basis for the optimization of transportation modes on water transport areas, and is of realistic significance to reduce waiting time of ships or lockage and improve the lock capacity of water transportation hubs.
1)将道路交通流的传统定义与船舶流的相似点相结合,提出了船舶交通流的定义,并分析了船舶交通流的三个关键要素；从元胞自动机的基本理论出发,以整个水运枢纽系统为对象介绍了元胞自动机四大基本元素----元胞、元胞空间、邻居和演化规则的基本概念和在本文中的设定,为构建复杂的元胞自动机模型理清思路和奠定基础。
2)分析了多个船舶领域模型的构成与特点,相互比较后选取适用于元胞自动机建模的藤井模型做为本文船舶领域的基础模型,并将其引入以N-S模型为基础的跟驰模型和换道模型中,通过改进原有加、减速规则得到了符合船舶交通流特点的考虑船舶领域影响的水上单通道和多通道CA改进模型。水上单通道CA模型以跟驰模型为基础,将船头距的大小作为后方船舶是否加减速的决定因素；水上多通道CA模型以换道模型为基础,分析后方船舶在追越过程中追赶、并行、超越三阶段船间距对加、减速的决定作用。
3)在分析了三峡库区过闸的现状和存在问题的基础上,分别研究双向船闸和考虑升船机在内的三通道过闸运输组织方式,结合高速公路船闸模型、升船机适用条件和船舶过闸调度原理,构建了水运枢纽过闸运输组织模型；另外将排队论与元胞自动机结合构建了基于排队论的元胞自动机模型。
4)以三峡翻坝公路为研究背景,分析现行翻坝运输的特点和不同翻坝方案的走向,以还原船舶流流向为根本出发点,构建了翻坝运输组织模型；并研究在陆-水翻坝过程中,滚装船汇入主航道对行进中的船舶造成的影响,构建了翻坝陆-水入口模型。
5)通过分析雾情对三峡库区船舶运输的影响,研究并得出了船舶运输组织方式在相应情况下的特征函数,结合现有船舶运输组织方式,构建了雾航限速元胞自动机模型。在雾情影响下,主要考虑了驾驶员视距对前方船舶行为反应的延迟影响和船舶突然进入雾区采取制动后的船舶运动状态。
本文将航道划分成若干网格、船舶看做元胞在网格上移动,从新的视角对水运枢纽区域运输组织中的船舶跟驰、船舶追越、船舶过闸、船舶翻坝等微观行为进行模拟,不仅拓展了元胞自动机理论的应用范围,更深化和完善了水运运输组织优化理论,为水运枢纽区域运输组织优化提供科学依据,对减少船舶过闸排队时间,提高水运枢纽综合通过能力具有现实意义。
In recent years, by virtue of the advantages of low costs, low consumption, and low pollution, inland waterway transportation is playing increasingly important role in national economy, and the demand of inland water transportation is growing. Meanwhile, because of the limitation of the previous engineering design level, the actual operation efficiency of partial ship lock of the water transportation hub is far from the design level. This awkward situation led the problem of insufficient lock capacity in some of the water transportation hubs. Especially when being influenced by natural situation, for example, flood, low flow and fog, the traffic jam for inland water transportation is particularly serious. Therefore, this article will analyze the transportation and organization mode in natural disaster with the object of three gorges hydro-junction area. Based on the traffic flow theory, this paper analyzes the characters of the running of ships. Moreover, Cellular Automata theory is utilized for establishing simulation model, optimizing the transportation and organization mode of the three gorges hydro-junction area, allowing Scheduling of ships in the three gorges hydro-junction area more scientific, reasonable and orderly. By doing so, it is also expected to further enhance the lock capacity and utilization rate, eliminating the anxieties on the development of inland waterway transportation. The main research content and achievements are given as follows:
1) Through combination of the traditional definition of road traffic flow with the ship traffic flow, the definition of aquatic traffic flow is proposed, while the three key elements for aquatic traffic flow are also analyzed. Proceeding from the basic Cellular Automata theory, it introduces the basic structure and changing rules of aquatic one-way CA model and aquatic multiple-way CA model, and analyzes the structures and features of multiple ship domain models. After comparison, FUJII Model, which is suitable for Cellular Automata modeling, is selected as the basic model in this paper. It will be one of the most important parameters—the basis for bow distance calculation.
2) By considering the unique undulation effect of water transportation on ships based on the N-S model, the concept of the marine sector is introduced; the original rules of acceleration and deceleration are improved; an updated CA model of appropriate single-channel as well as multi-channels on water transportation is put forward. With ship-following as the basis, for single channel of CA model on water transportation, distance between bows of ships is regarded as the determinant factor of conducting acceleration or deceleration; while for multi-channel CA model on water, on basis of channel changing model, analysis is made on the decisive role of overtaking, parallelizing and surpassing during the chasing process on acceleration and deceleration.
3) Through an analysis on the current lockage status as well as existing problems of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, in addition to separate studies on the arrangement methods of two-channel ship locks and ship shift inclusive three-channel locks, by combination with highway toll station model, applied conditions for ship lift and ship lock scheduling principle, a dual-channel and multi-channel model of ship lock have been built, and an analysis on simulation results is given.
4) Under the natural conditions such as fogs, floods, and low flow impact, corresponding characteristic functions of ship transportation organization mode are figured out, by combination with the current ship transportation mode, cellular automata models are built corresponding to the impact factors. With fog conditions, taking major considerations on the delay effect of drivers'visibility range on reactions to the ships in front, a ship transportation mode under fog conditions is constructed; while under the impact of floods, considering mainly the influence of water flow on the speed of ships and forces between ships, a ship transportation mode under floods is constructed; with low flow seasons, in view of the impact of less draft on the density of ships in the reservoir area, a shipping model under low flow seasons is designed.
5) With the research background of passing the dam to the Three Gorges, an analysis is made on the flow characteristics of different kinds of goods. During the modeling process, definitions of cellular length are made according to characteristics of ships for major cargo species. With separations of goods suitable for road transportation from the cargoes through regular lockage, on basis of lockage model of ships discussed in Chapter4, transportation modes for specific cargoes are constructed and empirical studies are carried out on simulation models with historical data of the Three Gorges as the basis.
The paper, regarding ships as cellular, makes simulations from a new perspective on the ship following, ship overtaking and ship lockage of regional transport organizations in the water transport hubs, not only expanding applications of the cellular automata theory, but more importantly deepening and improving the optimization theory of water transportation, which has provided scientific basis for the optimization of transportation modes on water transport areas, and is of realistic significance to reduce waiting time of ships or lockage and improve the lock capacity of water transportation hubs.
引文
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