云南农村金融发展研究
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摘要
金融已经发展成为现代经济的核心,农村金融是现代金融的重要组成部分。对于发展中国家而言,金融作用于经济的核心在于金融发展是否促进了本国的经济增长。发展中国家的金融改革大多围绕消除金融抑制、促进金融深化方面展开,目的是实现金融发展,更大限度的释放金融作用于经济增长的潜力。
在农村经济发展中,金融起着配置资本要素的关键作用。在长期“工业化主导、城市化先行”的发展战略影响下,中国农村经济发展落后,随着农村资本稀缺性的逐渐显现,农村金融在农村经济发展中的作用越来越突出。备受关注的“三农”问题的解决基本上都直接或者间接的依赖于农村金融的支持和发展。总体上说,中国农村金融发展滞后,金融发展的城乡差异明显。
现代金融体系应该是银行、证券、保险等机构以及要素市场不断完善、共同发展、相互作用,而我国的金融体系仍是以间接融资为主。因此,在金融发展的初期阶段,信贷是金融的主要表现形式。作为中国的欠发达地区,云南的农村也面临严峻的金融发展落后困境：随着国有商业银行实施集约化战略,大量撤并基层营业网点,商业性金融机构逐渐退出农村市场；农村信用社在农村地区表现出“独木难支”的窘境,农村非正规金融发展不完全,农村金融有效需求不充分,使得大量农村地区的金融需求无法得到满足。
对云南农村金融发展现状的阐述是分析云南农村金融发展问题的基础。论文从云南农村存贷款变化、云南农村金融相关率、云南城乡金融发展差异三个方面对云南农村金融发展现状作了基本判断。云南农村存贷款规模较全省存贷款总量较小,而且增长速度较慢；云南农村金融相关率水平偏低,远远低于云南省整体金融相关率和云南城市金融相关率,而且云南农村金融相关率与整体金融相关率和城市金融相关率之间的差距呈现扩大趋势。
论文核心部分以金融发展理论为指导,围绕着金融深化和金融发展对经济增长的作用,分析了农村金融结构、农村市场利率化、农村金融需求状况以及农村金融发展与农村经济增长、农户增收等与云南农村金融发展相关的重要问题。
云南农村的金融结构表现出正规金融与非正规金融并存的二元化特征。经过30多年的发展,云南农村基本上形成了以合作金融为主体、商业金融和政策性金融分工协作、其他形式的银行与非银行金融组织为补充的正规金融体系。同时,各种形式的非正规金融在云南农村广泛存在,较高程度的参与云南农村经济金融活动。正规金融与非正规金融在信息、成本、制度等几个方面有着各自的优势和局限性,这也就决定了二者在为云南农村经济社会发展提供金融服务方面既有竞争性也有互补性。云南广大农户和农村中小企业面临着分割的正规金融和非正规金融贷款市场,不同金融市场具有各自的利率定价方式和特点。利率管制是发展中国家金融抑制的关键原因,利率市场化成为金融深化的重要内容。
农村金融机构的利率市场化有利于提高农村金融服务的覆盖面和可持续发展能力。农村金融的发展,最终将体现在满足农村微观主体对金融的需求上,因此,农村微观主体金融需求的满足程度对农村金融发展有很强的检验效果。对云南农村的样本问卷调查结果显示云南农村居民的金融需求表现出明显的层次性特征,经济状况不同的农户其借贷金额、借贷期限与借款用途有较大的差异性。农户金融需求旺盛但是并不是所有需求都能得到满足,云南农村存在较为严重的融资约束,尤其是正规金融机构信贷约束。收入水平越低的农户融资缺口越大,受到的融资约束越严重。计量分析的结果表明：农户受教育程度、家庭收入状况和固定资产价值、家庭经营模式以及非农收入所占比重等对农户信贷需求和信贷可能性具有重要的影响。
云南金融发展与农村经济增长和农民增收关系的计量检验结果表明云南金融发展(包括城乡整体金融发展和农村金融发展)并没有显著促进农村经济增长和农民收入增长,特别是云南整体金融的发展反而阻碍了农村经济的增长,而农村经济增长却是金融发展的重要前提条件。导致云南农村金融发展和经济发展之间上述关系的重要原因是云南显著的城乡二元经济结构,农村经济发展落后,与城市之间发展差距很大,“门槛效应”使得落后的农村地区不愿意或者没有能力参与正规金融活动,导致农村金融市场发育水平低,发展不完善,从而限制了农村地区金融发展。
针对云南农村金融发展的主要问题,论文从扩大金融规模、优化金融工具及金融机构、健全金融市场机制等方面提出促进云南农村金融发展的政策建议。
Finance is the kernel of the modern economy, and rural finance is a critically important component. The core issue for finance in a developing country is finance's ability to promote internal growth. Financial reforms primarily focus on easing financial repression, increasing the depth of the counties'financial market, and finally and most importantly to unleash the country's financial growth potential.
In the course of rural economic development, finance's main goal is the allocation of capital. With a long-term vision summarized by "when industry is the pillar of development, urbanization leads", the development of most Chinese rural areas is left lagging behind. The scarcity of capital in rural areas becomes more and more pronounced, and the disparity between the financial and economic development between the industrialized areas and rural areas becomes ever more accentuated.
Concerning the "three agricultures"(e.g. rural areas, industrial agriculture and farmers) problem, the solution is directly and perhaps indirectly dependent on the development of rural finance.On the whole, there is a sharp contrast between rural finance in China and that of the urban financial system.
As a less developed region of China, the financial development of Yunnan's rural areas have lagged far behind. When the state-owned commercial banks adopt an overall strategy, the majority of these business and financial institutes withdraw from the rural markets. The Yunnan Rural Credit Cooperatives face the'one-pillar bridge'problem.The rural system of informal finance development is incomplete. The demand for financing is not large.The financing needs of a large number of rural areas cannot be met.
This article is built upon Financial Development Theory, the link between financial deepening and financial development and economic growth, analyzes Yunnan's current rural financial situation, its financial structure, market interest rates in the rural system, rural financial demands, as well as rural financial development, rural economic growth, farmer's income, and other rural financial development issues.
This article is split into three parts spread over eight chapters including the very first part, which is the guidance and theoretical basis of the whole.The first chapter is the introduction and theoretical foundations of this article, and the topic's background and significance.This is followed by a review of the theory of financial development and rural finance development theory. The theoretical basis for the article is established.
The second part consists of sections3through7, and constitutes the core of the article.In particular, part2focuses on Yunnan's rural financial development issues through the lens of rural financial development, its structure, migrating rural interest rates to a more market driven system, rural financial requirements, as well as the correlations between financial development and rural economic growth, and the relationship between rural household incomes and Yunnan rural financial development issues.
A fundamental assessment of rural financial development is in three sections covering:the variations in rural savings and loans, Yunnan's rural Financial Interrelation Ratio (FIR) and the differences between Yunnan's urban and rural financial development. Generally, Yunnan's rural savings and loans are small in scale compared with that of the whole province's saving and loan industry, and the development trend is slow. Furthermore, the FIR in Yunnan's rural areas is low. The FIR is far below both that of the province as a whole and the urban areas, and the gap between the two is expanding.
The financial structure of Yunnan's rural areas is comprised of two elements:formal and informal financial entities.Through some30years of development, Yunnan's rural financial system has come to be based on cooperative financial institutes, with the collaboration between commercial finance and financial policy, other forms of banking and informal banking supplement the formal financial system.Simultaneously, all sorts of non-standard financial activities are widely found in Yunnan's rural areas, these non-standard participants comprise a comparably large amount of Yunnan's rural economic activity.
Both formal and informal financial institutes display individual advantages and limitations regarding financial information, cost, and processing systems. Their respective capabilities help to determine Yunnan's rural economic society and financial services while these two groups compete and complement one another.
Most of rural residents and rural SMEs (small and medium enterprise) face a market where loans are offered by both formal or informal financial institutions.At the same time, the different financial markets have their own interest rate policies and features.Nevertheless, interest rate controls is a critical feature in a developing country's financial controls, hence, interest rate marketization has become a key requirement for the financial system to mature. It is a positive practice to promote interest marketization at rural financial institutes to improve the availability and ensure the sustainability of rural financial services.The development of rural finance will finally be answered through the satisfaction of financial demands at the micro-level. There is strong evidence to support that micro-finance can satisfy the needs of the rural areas.An outcome from a questionnaire to Yunnan's rural areas reports that the financial requires of Yunnan's rural residents comes in multiple levels.For instance, farmers of deferent economic situations have different borrowing needs.There is a large difference between the tenor of loans and the period over which the money is actually required..
Not all urgent financial demands can be satisfied due to the serious financial restrictions in Yunnan's rural areas, particularly, when dealing with formal financial institutes.The lower the income of a family of farmers, the more severe financial restrictions they will face. Quantitative analysis indicates that the educational level,family income, tangible assets, quality of the family business management, as well as non-agricultural income greatly influence the farmer's credit requirements.
A sampling of Yunnan's financial development and rural economic growth and rural resident's income resulted that Yunnan's financial development (including urban&rural financial development and rural financial development) have not yet dramatically facilitated rural economic growth and rural resident's income.On the contrary, Yunnan's financial development has hindered the rural economy from growing. Rural economic growth provides an important precondition for financial development as a whole. To a certain extent, the test result reflects weak support for the Yunnan government's financial policy for "three agricultures".In the end of the article, the author advocates a great number of policy suggestions for promoting Yunnan's financial development based upon the previous analyses of Yunnan's rural financial development. Suggestions focus on enlarging the scale of financial activities, optimizing the financial tools and financial institutions, for the purpose of constructing a sound and complete financial market mechanism.
在农村经济发展中,金融起着配置资本要素的关键作用。在长期“工业化主导、城市化先行”的发展战略影响下,中国农村经济发展落后,随着农村资本稀缺性的逐渐显现,农村金融在农村经济发展中的作用越来越突出。备受关注的“三农”问题的解决基本上都直接或者间接的依赖于农村金融的支持和发展。总体上说,中国农村金融发展滞后,金融发展的城乡差异明显。
现代金融体系应该是银行、证券、保险等机构以及要素市场不断完善、共同发展、相互作用,而我国的金融体系仍是以间接融资为主。因此,在金融发展的初期阶段,信贷是金融的主要表现形式。作为中国的欠发达地区,云南的农村也面临严峻的金融发展落后困境：随着国有商业银行实施集约化战略,大量撤并基层营业网点,商业性金融机构逐渐退出农村市场；农村信用社在农村地区表现出“独木难支”的窘境,农村非正规金融发展不完全,农村金融有效需求不充分,使得大量农村地区的金融需求无法得到满足。
对云南农村金融发展现状的阐述是分析云南农村金融发展问题的基础。论文从云南农村存贷款变化、云南农村金融相关率、云南城乡金融发展差异三个方面对云南农村金融发展现状作了基本判断。云南农村存贷款规模较全省存贷款总量较小,而且增长速度较慢；云南农村金融相关率水平偏低,远远低于云南省整体金融相关率和云南城市金融相关率,而且云南农村金融相关率与整体金融相关率和城市金融相关率之间的差距呈现扩大趋势。
论文核心部分以金融发展理论为指导,围绕着金融深化和金融发展对经济增长的作用,分析了农村金融结构、农村市场利率化、农村金融需求状况以及农村金融发展与农村经济增长、农户增收等与云南农村金融发展相关的重要问题。
云南农村的金融结构表现出正规金融与非正规金融并存的二元化特征。经过30多年的发展,云南农村基本上形成了以合作金融为主体、商业金融和政策性金融分工协作、其他形式的银行与非银行金融组织为补充的正规金融体系。同时,各种形式的非正规金融在云南农村广泛存在,较高程度的参与云南农村经济金融活动。正规金融与非正规金融在信息、成本、制度等几个方面有着各自的优势和局限性,这也就决定了二者在为云南农村经济社会发展提供金融服务方面既有竞争性也有互补性。云南广大农户和农村中小企业面临着分割的正规金融和非正规金融贷款市场,不同金融市场具有各自的利率定价方式和特点。利率管制是发展中国家金融抑制的关键原因,利率市场化成为金融深化的重要内容。
农村金融机构的利率市场化有利于提高农村金融服务的覆盖面和可持续发展能力。农村金融的发展,最终将体现在满足农村微观主体对金融的需求上,因此,农村微观主体金融需求的满足程度对农村金融发展有很强的检验效果。对云南农村的样本问卷调查结果显示云南农村居民的金融需求表现出明显的层次性特征,经济状况不同的农户其借贷金额、借贷期限与借款用途有较大的差异性。农户金融需求旺盛但是并不是所有需求都能得到满足,云南农村存在较为严重的融资约束,尤其是正规金融机构信贷约束。收入水平越低的农户融资缺口越大,受到的融资约束越严重。计量分析的结果表明：农户受教育程度、家庭收入状况和固定资产价值、家庭经营模式以及非农收入所占比重等对农户信贷需求和信贷可能性具有重要的影响。
云南金融发展与农村经济增长和农民增收关系的计量检验结果表明云南金融发展(包括城乡整体金融发展和农村金融发展)并没有显著促进农村经济增长和农民收入增长,特别是云南整体金融的发展反而阻碍了农村经济的增长,而农村经济增长却是金融发展的重要前提条件。导致云南农村金融发展和经济发展之间上述关系的重要原因是云南显著的城乡二元经济结构,农村经济发展落后,与城市之间发展差距很大,“门槛效应”使得落后的农村地区不愿意或者没有能力参与正规金融活动,导致农村金融市场发育水平低,发展不完善,从而限制了农村地区金融发展。
针对云南农村金融发展的主要问题,论文从扩大金融规模、优化金融工具及金融机构、健全金融市场机制等方面提出促进云南农村金融发展的政策建议。
Finance is the kernel of the modern economy, and rural finance is a critically important component. The core issue for finance in a developing country is finance's ability to promote internal growth. Financial reforms primarily focus on easing financial repression, increasing the depth of the counties'financial market, and finally and most importantly to unleash the country's financial growth potential.
In the course of rural economic development, finance's main goal is the allocation of capital. With a long-term vision summarized by "when industry is the pillar of development, urbanization leads", the development of most Chinese rural areas is left lagging behind. The scarcity of capital in rural areas becomes more and more pronounced, and the disparity between the financial and economic development between the industrialized areas and rural areas becomes ever more accentuated.
Concerning the "three agricultures"(e.g. rural areas, industrial agriculture and farmers) problem, the solution is directly and perhaps indirectly dependent on the development of rural finance.On the whole, there is a sharp contrast between rural finance in China and that of the urban financial system.
As a less developed region of China, the financial development of Yunnan's rural areas have lagged far behind. When the state-owned commercial banks adopt an overall strategy, the majority of these business and financial institutes withdraw from the rural markets. The Yunnan Rural Credit Cooperatives face the'one-pillar bridge'problem.The rural system of informal finance development is incomplete. The demand for financing is not large.The financing needs of a large number of rural areas cannot be met.
This article is built upon Financial Development Theory, the link between financial deepening and financial development and economic growth, analyzes Yunnan's current rural financial situation, its financial structure, market interest rates in the rural system, rural financial demands, as well as rural financial development, rural economic growth, farmer's income, and other rural financial development issues.
This article is split into three parts spread over eight chapters including the very first part, which is the guidance and theoretical basis of the whole.The first chapter is the introduction and theoretical foundations of this article, and the topic's background and significance.This is followed by a review of the theory of financial development and rural finance development theory. The theoretical basis for the article is established.
The second part consists of sections3through7, and constitutes the core of the article.In particular, part2focuses on Yunnan's rural financial development issues through the lens of rural financial development, its structure, migrating rural interest rates to a more market driven system, rural financial requirements, as well as the correlations between financial development and rural economic growth, and the relationship between rural household incomes and Yunnan rural financial development issues.
A fundamental assessment of rural financial development is in three sections covering:the variations in rural savings and loans, Yunnan's rural Financial Interrelation Ratio (FIR) and the differences between Yunnan's urban and rural financial development. Generally, Yunnan's rural savings and loans are small in scale compared with that of the whole province's saving and loan industry, and the development trend is slow. Furthermore, the FIR in Yunnan's rural areas is low. The FIR is far below both that of the province as a whole and the urban areas, and the gap between the two is expanding.
The financial structure of Yunnan's rural areas is comprised of two elements:formal and informal financial entities.Through some30years of development, Yunnan's rural financial system has come to be based on cooperative financial institutes, with the collaboration between commercial finance and financial policy, other forms of banking and informal banking supplement the formal financial system.Simultaneously, all sorts of non-standard financial activities are widely found in Yunnan's rural areas, these non-standard participants comprise a comparably large amount of Yunnan's rural economic activity.
Both formal and informal financial institutes display individual advantages and limitations regarding financial information, cost, and processing systems. Their respective capabilities help to determine Yunnan's rural economic society and financial services while these two groups compete and complement one another.
Most of rural residents and rural SMEs (small and medium enterprise) face a market where loans are offered by both formal or informal financial institutions.At the same time, the different financial markets have their own interest rate policies and features.Nevertheless, interest rate controls is a critical feature in a developing country's financial controls, hence, interest rate marketization has become a key requirement for the financial system to mature. It is a positive practice to promote interest marketization at rural financial institutes to improve the availability and ensure the sustainability of rural financial services.The development of rural finance will finally be answered through the satisfaction of financial demands at the micro-level. There is strong evidence to support that micro-finance can satisfy the needs of the rural areas.An outcome from a questionnaire to Yunnan's rural areas reports that the financial requires of Yunnan's rural residents comes in multiple levels.For instance, farmers of deferent economic situations have different borrowing needs.There is a large difference between the tenor of loans and the period over which the money is actually required..
Not all urgent financial demands can be satisfied due to the serious financial restrictions in Yunnan's rural areas, particularly, when dealing with formal financial institutes.The lower the income of a family of farmers, the more severe financial restrictions they will face. Quantitative analysis indicates that the educational level,family income, tangible assets, quality of the family business management, as well as non-agricultural income greatly influence the farmer's credit requirements.
A sampling of Yunnan's financial development and rural economic growth and rural resident's income resulted that Yunnan's financial development (including urban&rural financial development and rural financial development) have not yet dramatically facilitated rural economic growth and rural resident's income.On the contrary, Yunnan's financial development has hindered the rural economy from growing. Rural economic growth provides an important precondition for financial development as a whole. To a certain extent, the test result reflects weak support for the Yunnan government's financial policy for "three agricultures".In the end of the article, the author advocates a great number of policy suggestions for promoting Yunnan's financial development based upon the previous analyses of Yunnan's rural financial development. Suggestions focus on enlarging the scale of financial activities, optimizing the financial tools and financial institutions, for the purpose of constructing a sound and complete financial market mechanism.
引文
①根据戈德斯密斯的定义,金融结构就是一国现有的金融工具和金融机构的总和。
②戈德斯密斯认为金融发展就是金融结构的变化发展。
①雷蒙德·W·戈德史密斯.《金融结构与金融发展》[M],上海三联书店、上海人民出版社1994年。
①阿瑟刘易斯著,梁晓民译.《经济增长理论》[M].上海：上海人民出版社 1994年10月第一版。
①Rural finance:Issues, design, and best practicesThe World Bank Research Observer.1994,9(01).
②Adams Dale W. Filling the Deposit Gap in Microfinance.Paper for the Best Practices in Savings Mobilization Conference. Washington,DC,2002,(11):5-6.
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①中国国家统计局对存款分类的标准。
②中国改革和发展专家.中国财富报告[M].上海：上海远东出版社,2002,第183页-第184页.
③1982年之前的统计仅包括国有商业银行,1982年及以后各年存款的统计为全部金融机构数据,考虑到可比性,论文中采集的统计数据从1982年开始。
①截至本论文成稿时尚未成立新型农村金融机构的另外两种机构：贷款公司和农村资金互助社。
①乡镇企业一般以农村集体经济组织或者农民投资为主。
①用(贷款+存款)/GDP衡量
①农村金融相关率=(农村存款+农村贷款)/第一产业产值,城市金融相关率=(非农村存款+非农村贷款)／第二三产业产值之和,全部金融相关率=(存款+贷款)/GDP
①实际当中云南农村正规金融体系中还包括保险公司、信托投资公司、担保公司等非银行金融机构,这些金融组织在一定程度上从不同的角度对农户和农村企业提供金融服务,但占比小,本文着重从银行业金融机构的角度进行论述和分析。
①中国银行业监督管理委员会.中国银监会批准中国邮政储蓄银行开业[EB/OL]
①王曙光、乔郁.农村金融发展[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2008,第191页.
②同上。
③包括农业发展银行、农业银行、农村信用社、农村合作银行以及新型农村金融机构、小额贷款公司等。
①俗称“三缘”,在农村地区主要表现为亲朋好友关系、乡亲邻里关系。
①庞巴维克：《资本实证论》,第381页,商务印书馆,1963年.
①张杰,2004；费孝通1985
②这317个有从非正规金融市场借款经历的农户中有部分农户借款方式是不是单一的,有的既向亲朋邻里借款也向非正规金融机构借贷,所以各种贷款利率客户占比之和大于100%。
③银监会和人民银行联合发布的《关于小额贷款公司试点的指导意见》规定了小额贷款公司的利率浮动上限为基准利率的4倍。小额贷款公司的成立本身就是政府为了稳定金融秩序为民间金融提供了规范有序的运转空间,其利率区间具有制度上的合法性,因此对小额贷款公司贷款利率4倍上限就被广泛定义为正常利率水平和高利贷的分界点。
①陈雨露、马勇.中国农村金融论纲[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2010,第69页.
①在调查中,不少农户贷款既是出于生产性用途也是出于生活性用途,因此这两个比重之和大于100%。
①因为存在多项选择,表中所占比例有的超过100%
②因为存在多项选择的可能,因此比例超过100%。
①何明生(2008)有一个类似的分析框架,本文在此基础上做了些扩展。
①Lucas.Robort E.,On The Mechanics of Economic Development [J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1988(8):3-42.
②Aghion,philippe,and peter Howitt. A Model of Growth through creative destructions [J].Econometriea,1992, 323-351.
③宁智平.《资本形成、金融深化与经济发展》[J].世界经济文汇,1993,(04)：1—8.
①平稳时间序列的均值、方差和协方差是不随时间变化而变化,平稳时间序列在各个时点上的随机性服从一定的概率分布。
②Engle.Robert F. and C.W.J.Granger.Co-integration and Error Correction Representation. Estimation and Testing, Econimetrica.1987.55:251-276.
①王曙光、邓一婷(2006)称这一现象为农村地区的“系统性负投资”。
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②戈德斯密斯认为金融发展就是金融结构的变化发展。
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①Rural finance:Issues, design, and best practicesThe World Bank Research Observer.1994,9(01).
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①中国国家统计局对存款分类的标准。
②中国改革和发展专家.中国财富报告[M].上海：上海远东出版社,2002,第183页-第184页.
③1982年之前的统计仅包括国有商业银行,1982年及以后各年存款的统计为全部金融机构数据,考虑到可比性,论文中采集的统计数据从1982年开始。
①截至本论文成稿时尚未成立新型农村金融机构的另外两种机构：贷款公司和农村资金互助社。
①乡镇企业一般以农村集体经济组织或者农民投资为主。
①用(贷款+存款)/GDP衡量
①农村金融相关率=(农村存款+农村贷款)/第一产业产值,城市金融相关率=(非农村存款+非农村贷款)／第二三产业产值之和,全部金融相关率=(存款+贷款)/GDP
①实际当中云南农村正规金融体系中还包括保险公司、信托投资公司、担保公司等非银行金融机构,这些金融组织在一定程度上从不同的角度对农户和农村企业提供金融服务,但占比小,本文着重从银行业金融机构的角度进行论述和分析。
①中国银行业监督管理委员会.中国银监会批准中国邮政储蓄银行开业[EB/OL]
①王曙光、乔郁.农村金融发展[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2008,第191页.
②同上。
③包括农业发展银行、农业银行、农村信用社、农村合作银行以及新型农村金融机构、小额贷款公司等。
①俗称“三缘”,在农村地区主要表现为亲朋好友关系、乡亲邻里关系。
①庞巴维克：《资本实证论》,第381页,商务印书馆,1963年.
①张杰,2004；费孝通1985
②这317个有从非正规金融市场借款经历的农户中有部分农户借款方式是不是单一的,有的既向亲朋邻里借款也向非正规金融机构借贷,所以各种贷款利率客户占比之和大于100%。
③银监会和人民银行联合发布的《关于小额贷款公司试点的指导意见》规定了小额贷款公司的利率浮动上限为基准利率的4倍。小额贷款公司的成立本身就是政府为了稳定金融秩序为民间金融提供了规范有序的运转空间,其利率区间具有制度上的合法性,因此对小额贷款公司贷款利率4倍上限就被广泛定义为正常利率水平和高利贷的分界点。
①陈雨露、马勇.中国农村金融论纲[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2010,第69页.
①在调查中,不少农户贷款既是出于生产性用途也是出于生活性用途,因此这两个比重之和大于100%。
①因为存在多项选择,表中所占比例有的超过100%
②因为存在多项选择的可能,因此比例超过100%。
①何明生(2008)有一个类似的分析框架,本文在此基础上做了些扩展。
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①平稳时间序列的均值、方差和协方差是不随时间变化而变化,平稳时间序列在各个时点上的随机性服从一定的概率分布。
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①王曙光、邓一婷(2006)称这一现象为农村地区的“系统性负投资”。
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