企业人力资本投资风险评价及投资策略研究
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摘要
人力资本理论创立近半个世纪,已成为“经济学中经验应用最多的理论之一”,在人口经济学、劳动经济学、发展经济学、制度经济学等理论中得到了广泛的应用,国家、企业、个人也在人力资本投资上投入了南量的财力和精力。
人力资本投资与其它投资活动一样,是一种高风险的投资活动,由种种不确定性因素引起的投资不能获得预期收益的风险在人力资本投资中始终存在。目前,人力资本投资风险的研究已越来越多地引起人们的兴趣,但仍存在不如人意的地方,主要表现在,定性的讨论较多、数理分析相对较少,对风险的认识没有一个被广泛认同的理论基础,对风险的评价与企业实际需求结合不够紧,对风险条件下投资策略的研究很少考虑到企业人力资本投资的组合性和阶段性特点,等等。基于此,本文试图针对企业人力资本投资风险,在投资风险的识别、评价以及投资策略等方面作一些探索性的研究。
研究总体建立在两种设定基础之上,一是对投资活动“四阶段”的设定。认为按照投资活动过程的展开,企业人力资本投资活动可分成四个阶段,即投资规划阶段、人力资本形成阶段、人力资本配置阶段、人力资本使用阶段;二是对投资风险“三层次”的设定。认为根据风险理论关于风险因素、风险事故、风险损失关系的阐述,人力资本投资风险可以从三个层次分析,即事件层风险、原因层风险、信号层风险。
在投资风险的识别方面。本文首先从产权经济学、信息经济学、行为经济学等不同角度对风险产生原因进行了剖析;接着,基于投资活动“四阶段”和投资风险“三层次”,分别对不同层次不同阶段的企业人力资本投资风险因素进行分析和识别,这些风险因素也成为建立企业人力资本投资风险指标体系和风险评价的基础。
在投资风险的评价方面。认为投资的成本风险、收益风险、综合风险是企业人力资本投资风险评价的主要衡量指标和内容,并给出评价实例。对投资成本和投资收益风险的评价,依托投资“四阶段”建构投资的仿真过程,利用蒙特卡洛仿真法得出投资成本和投资收益的风险曲线和随机特征;对投资综合风险的评价,基于风险“三层次”,建立投资风险指标体系,利用模糊综合评价法得出投资综合风险的量化值、各风险因素指标的风险度及其排序。
在投资策略方面。认为企业人力资本投资是风险投资,具有投资主体组合性和投资过程阶段性的特点,而组合投资和阶段投资又是减少投资风险的有效方式,因此对企业人力资本投资的组合投资和阶段投资策略进行了重点分析。关于组合投资,首先对企业人力资本投资的组合形式进行了详细的讨论,然后针对企业、员工主体组合投资,建立了投资博弈模型并进行了分析,得出企业和员工双方投资策略受投资风险、重置成本及其他相关因素的影响,当投资风险为零时,企业和员工投资比例应与收益分成比例相等等相关结论;关于阶段投资,本文认为在不同投资阶段,企业和员工各自采取的投资策略受彼此约束,在假定约束关系的前提下,建立起企业、员工在人力资本形成、配置、使用各个阶段的投资策略模型,通过分析得出了投资收益分成系数是投资的关键影响因素,同时投资预期产出、企业和员工各自能力、企业和员工对彼此的依赖度以及系统风险(市场的不确定性)等变量参数对不同投资主体各阶段的投资策略也会产生影响的一系列相关结论。研究为企业人力资本投资者选择投资策略提供了决策支持。
Human capital theory has become“one of the most useful theories in practice”since its establishment in sixties of 20th, and been used widely in theories such as population economy, labour economy, development economy, system economy. Contries, enterprises and individuals invest a lot on human capital investment because of its big distribution.
At the same time, human capital investment is a high-risk activity. The risk that the anticipated profit can not be attained in reality always exists because of indefinite elements. At present, the risk research of human capital investment has drawn more and more researchers’attention, but there is still something unsatisfactory such as less model analysis, no theory accepted widely is taken as a foundation for risk recognition of human capital investment, risk evaluation has not been combined tightly with requirements of the enterprise, how the investors will chose their strategies in the portfolio and staged investment of human capital has not been researched intensively. This thesis is trying to find some resolutions for the topics mentioned above and do some research on risk recognition, risk evaluation, investment strategies of enterprise human capital investment.
All the reseach is based on two points of view. One is“four stages”of the investment which augues that most human capital investment can be divided into four stages with the spread of investment. The four stages are investment planning, the formation of human capital, the allocation of human capital and the use of human capital; The other one is“three hierarchies”of the risk which argues that the investment risks can be recognized from three hierarchies which are accidents, causes and signals according to the method of risk elements, risk accidents and risk afteraffects in risk theory.
About the risk recognition. First of all, the reasons why the risks exist are stated from the view of right economy, information economy, behavior economy. Then the risk elements are distinguished from different stages and different hierarchies on the basis of“four stages”and“three hierarchies”. These risk elements are also the basis of establishment of the risk index and risk evalution in the further research.
About the risk evaluation. The goal of the risk evaluation should be to get the cost risk, the profit risk and integrated risk. The thesis gives two examples how to evaluate the risk of the enterprise human capital investment from the three aspects. The evaluation of cost and profit risks is accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation method. The investment network which has to be established needed in the simulation is based on the“four stages”. In the simulation, the cost and profit of the investment are taken as random variables and their probability distribution curves are the outputs. The integrated risk evaluation uses the risk index. The evalution results are numbers which can describe the level of the existing risk and the index which affect the risk most.
About the investment strategies. Portfolio and staged investments are two efficient ways to decrease the risk of venture investment. Human capital investment is venture investment. This thesis takes the portfolio and staged investment of human capital in enterprise as research emphases. As for portfolio, after discussing six forms of portfolio, a profit game model is set up for the investment in which the firm and employee are both taken as the investors. The analyse result is that the portfolio is influenced by risk, the cost used to recruit new employee if the old ones leave, and other relavant variables. The portfolio should be equal to the profit allocator between two investors under certain circumstance. As for the staged investment, under the hypothesis that both the firm and employee affluence the other when they chose their investment strategies. The staged investment models of the three stages apart from the planning stage are set up so that we can draw a series of conclusions from them. The results tell us that the profit allocator is a key element to the strategies the firm and employee will take. The other elements such as the capability of the both sides, the dependence on each other, the uncertainty also affect their strategies in different stages as well. The conclusions give the investors decision supports for better investment.
人力资本投资与其它投资活动一样,是一种高风险的投资活动,由种种不确定性因素引起的投资不能获得预期收益的风险在人力资本投资中始终存在。目前,人力资本投资风险的研究已越来越多地引起人们的兴趣,但仍存在不如人意的地方,主要表现在,定性的讨论较多、数理分析相对较少,对风险的认识没有一个被广泛认同的理论基础,对风险的评价与企业实际需求结合不够紧,对风险条件下投资策略的研究很少考虑到企业人力资本投资的组合性和阶段性特点,等等。基于此,本文试图针对企业人力资本投资风险,在投资风险的识别、评价以及投资策略等方面作一些探索性的研究。
研究总体建立在两种设定基础之上,一是对投资活动“四阶段”的设定。认为按照投资活动过程的展开,企业人力资本投资活动可分成四个阶段,即投资规划阶段、人力资本形成阶段、人力资本配置阶段、人力资本使用阶段;二是对投资风险“三层次”的设定。认为根据风险理论关于风险因素、风险事故、风险损失关系的阐述,人力资本投资风险可以从三个层次分析,即事件层风险、原因层风险、信号层风险。
在投资风险的识别方面。本文首先从产权经济学、信息经济学、行为经济学等不同角度对风险产生原因进行了剖析;接着,基于投资活动“四阶段”和投资风险“三层次”,分别对不同层次不同阶段的企业人力资本投资风险因素进行分析和识别,这些风险因素也成为建立企业人力资本投资风险指标体系和风险评价的基础。
在投资风险的评价方面。认为投资的成本风险、收益风险、综合风险是企业人力资本投资风险评价的主要衡量指标和内容,并给出评价实例。对投资成本和投资收益风险的评价,依托投资“四阶段”建构投资的仿真过程,利用蒙特卡洛仿真法得出投资成本和投资收益的风险曲线和随机特征;对投资综合风险的评价,基于风险“三层次”,建立投资风险指标体系,利用模糊综合评价法得出投资综合风险的量化值、各风险因素指标的风险度及其排序。
在投资策略方面。认为企业人力资本投资是风险投资,具有投资主体组合性和投资过程阶段性的特点,而组合投资和阶段投资又是减少投资风险的有效方式,因此对企业人力资本投资的组合投资和阶段投资策略进行了重点分析。关于组合投资,首先对企业人力资本投资的组合形式进行了详细的讨论,然后针对企业、员工主体组合投资,建立了投资博弈模型并进行了分析,得出企业和员工双方投资策略受投资风险、重置成本及其他相关因素的影响,当投资风险为零时,企业和员工投资比例应与收益分成比例相等等相关结论;关于阶段投资,本文认为在不同投资阶段,企业和员工各自采取的投资策略受彼此约束,在假定约束关系的前提下,建立起企业、员工在人力资本形成、配置、使用各个阶段的投资策略模型,通过分析得出了投资收益分成系数是投资的关键影响因素,同时投资预期产出、企业和员工各自能力、企业和员工对彼此的依赖度以及系统风险(市场的不确定性)等变量参数对不同投资主体各阶段的投资策略也会产生影响的一系列相关结论。研究为企业人力资本投资者选择投资策略提供了决策支持。
Human capital theory has become“one of the most useful theories in practice”since its establishment in sixties of 20th, and been used widely in theories such as population economy, labour economy, development economy, system economy. Contries, enterprises and individuals invest a lot on human capital investment because of its big distribution.
At the same time, human capital investment is a high-risk activity. The risk that the anticipated profit can not be attained in reality always exists because of indefinite elements. At present, the risk research of human capital investment has drawn more and more researchers’attention, but there is still something unsatisfactory such as less model analysis, no theory accepted widely is taken as a foundation for risk recognition of human capital investment, risk evaluation has not been combined tightly with requirements of the enterprise, how the investors will chose their strategies in the portfolio and staged investment of human capital has not been researched intensively. This thesis is trying to find some resolutions for the topics mentioned above and do some research on risk recognition, risk evaluation, investment strategies of enterprise human capital investment.
All the reseach is based on two points of view. One is“four stages”of the investment which augues that most human capital investment can be divided into four stages with the spread of investment. The four stages are investment planning, the formation of human capital, the allocation of human capital and the use of human capital; The other one is“three hierarchies”of the risk which argues that the investment risks can be recognized from three hierarchies which are accidents, causes and signals according to the method of risk elements, risk accidents and risk afteraffects in risk theory.
About the risk recognition. First of all, the reasons why the risks exist are stated from the view of right economy, information economy, behavior economy. Then the risk elements are distinguished from different stages and different hierarchies on the basis of“four stages”and“three hierarchies”. These risk elements are also the basis of establishment of the risk index and risk evalution in the further research.
About the risk evaluation. The goal of the risk evaluation should be to get the cost risk, the profit risk and integrated risk. The thesis gives two examples how to evaluate the risk of the enterprise human capital investment from the three aspects. The evaluation of cost and profit risks is accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation method. The investment network which has to be established needed in the simulation is based on the“four stages”. In the simulation, the cost and profit of the investment are taken as random variables and their probability distribution curves are the outputs. The integrated risk evaluation uses the risk index. The evalution results are numbers which can describe the level of the existing risk and the index which affect the risk most.
About the investment strategies. Portfolio and staged investments are two efficient ways to decrease the risk of venture investment. Human capital investment is venture investment. This thesis takes the portfolio and staged investment of human capital in enterprise as research emphases. As for portfolio, after discussing six forms of portfolio, a profit game model is set up for the investment in which the firm and employee are both taken as the investors. The analyse result is that the portfolio is influenced by risk, the cost used to recruit new employee if the old ones leave, and other relavant variables. The portfolio should be equal to the profit allocator between two investors under certain circumstance. As for the staged investment, under the hypothesis that both the firm and employee affluence the other when they chose their investment strategies. The staged investment models of the three stages apart from the planning stage are set up so that we can draw a series of conclusions from them. The results tell us that the profit allocator is a key element to the strategies the firm and employee will take. The other elements such as the capability of the both sides, the dependence on each other, the uncertainty also affect their strategies in different stages as well. The conclusions give the investors decision supports for better investment.
引文
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