城市商务办公楼租金特征与空间分布研究
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摘要
信息产业推动了城市的发展与更新,促进了商务经济的活跃,商务办公已成为城市的核心功能和城市空间结构重要的组成部分。商务办公作为城市新经济的载体,在客观上势必会引发城市空间结构做出相应的调整,而商务办公市场的供需双方同样潜在地推动着城市空间的重塑。目前实证研究中,缺乏对商务房地产市场微观特征的定量分析,忽视其价格对城市空间规划的推动作用,针对城市商务办公市场的专题研究是城市持续发展不可回避的课题。为此,本文以城市商务办公楼租金为研究对象,分析租金特征因素与特征价格及其租金在城市空间上的分布规律是值得探索和拓展的领域。
本文研究以重庆为例,基于重庆市目前发展战略方向的调整,为营建商务运营中心提供属性数据和空间数据成果;另一方面,重庆是多中心、组团式城市,城市结构极具特征性,以其为实证背景具有一定的代表性和现实意义。
在实证研究中,以重庆市商务办公楼租赁市场为切入点,进行租金特征与空间分布的研究。首先,依据重庆市商务办公楼租赁交易数据(包括对调查数据的整合),对特征变量(影响租金的微观因素)进行选取与量化,建立了商务办公楼租金特征价格模型,从微观层面探索了商务办公楼租赁交易的内在动力特征因素和需求偏好;其二,通过特征模型对现有观测样点(商务办公楼)进行租金数据标准化,采用Kriging空间插值方法对未采样点的区域化变量取值进行空间局部估计,建立商务办公楼数字租金空间模型,利用该模型提供的专题图,对租金空间分布结构及其规律进行研究与分析。
本文以重庆市商务办公楼为实证对象,研究可分为两大部分:
①建立商务办公楼租金特征价格模型(Hedonic Price Model,简称HPM),对租金的特征影响因素、特征价格等进行研究。
②建立商务办公楼数字租金空间模型(Digital Office Rent Model,简称DORM),对租金的空间分布结构进行研究。
围绕上述两方面研究内容,主要完成的工作如下:
首先,在明确研究目的、背景和意义的前提下,通过文献检索和调查研究,提出了研究的问题:从微观方面研究城市商务办公楼租金特征,利用空间技术与方法进行租金空间结构分析。
其次,总结有关文献和实证研究成果,提出研究的两个视角:经济学和地理学,即以经济学——新古典经济学为本文理论基础,利用基于此理论的“特征价格模型”作为租金特征价格研究的方法;同时借助于地理学——地统计学原理与方法,在地理信息系统(GIS)的支持下进行商务办公楼租金空间结构分布的研究,以此构建具有创新性的技术路线设计。
第三,对影响租金的特征变量进行文献总结,并根据重庆市场具体情况结合访谈调查的结果,提出了本文选用的模型变量(18个自变量);对模型的自变量量化准则进行了详细的阐述;对因变量租金的挂牌价格和成交价格进行了线性回归,得到两者之间的转换公式。
第四,从统一市场和细分市场两个板块分别构建重庆市商务办公楼租金的特征价格模型(HPM),并加以分析和比较。在模型的构建中,试用线性和半对数的函数形式建立模型,分别对样本进行拟合度分析,从中优选最佳模型。通过模型估计出商务办公楼租金特征价格或边际价格,确定相应的特征价格函数式,对进入模型的特征变量进行了分析和影响程度的排序。
第五,根据租金特征价格模型提供的数据(样点标准租金值),通过地统计学Kriging插值,在ArcGIS软件支撑下,建立了重庆市商务楼数字租金模型(DORM),为研究租金的空间分布规律提供分析图件。
第六,在数字租金空间模型(DORM)提供的租金空间分布专题图的基础上,从空间角度研究来重庆市商务办公楼租金的空间分布特征与规律,其中涉及到租金空间分布统计、租金三维空间模型结构、租金等值线分布、租金剖面形态、租金梯度变化、租金地形特征和商务用地等级划分等分析过程。在研究成果的基础上提出对重庆市商务区规划的建议。
总之,通过商务办公楼租金特征价格模型(HPM)的建立,剖析租金的特征价格,反映出各特征因素对租金的影响程度,进而揭示租赁交易的核心动力和内在机理,为房地产业健康有序的发展提供科学有力的决策依据和分析工具,在城市房地产租赁市场定量分析方面具有一定的开创性;在数字租金空间模型(DORM)的支持下,对租金空间结构分布进行了研究,提出了多中心城市其租金的空间分布规律及其他相关成果,为此,这一研究不仅在理论和实证研究方面上有所拓展,而且为城市空间规划、城市商务用地结构、城市商务经济发展等方面提供了全新的分析方法和实证成果。就此而言,本文的研究具有较强的创新价值和社会实践价值。
As the information industry pushing the urban development and renewal, and improving the business and economy, urban has become the supplier of business functions. The development and remodeling of the urban area is being improved and influenced by the both parties of office rental, potentially. Through studying the office rental market, this dissertation analysed the dynamic characteristics and special distraction structure. At present the quantitative analysis of the micro-market supply and demand characteristic is ignored in most of the empirical studies, as well as the spatial influence of the real estate price. Hence this dissertation tries to study the inner dynamic characteristic of office lease transactions in the micro level, and studies the distribution characteristics of spatial structure, using the theory and method of spatial analysis—geostatistics, in order to provide basis for the urban development and planning.
Taking commercial office building as research subject, the empirical study in this reserach is divided into two part:
①the establishment of commercial office building hedinic price model (HPM)
②the establishment of commercial office building digital rent model (DORM) Focusing on these two aspects, this reserach obtained the following research results:
Firstly, under the premise of understanding research purposes, background and significance, through a large number of literature search and investigation and research, this reserach put forward the issues to be studied, that is studying urban commercial office rent characteristics at the micro level, and conducting rent spatial structure analysis using space technology and methods.
Secondly, recalling the relevant literature and empirical research results, the two perspectives of this study were further clarified: economics - Neo-classical economics was selected as the basic theory of this reserach, and the“hedonic price model”besed on this theory was taken as the analysis method; at the same time, the geography - geographic Information systems (GIS) and geostatistics methods were used to obtain the rent structure distribution in space, in order to build the technical line of this study.
Thirdly, through the literature review of the selection of model variables (impact factor), according to the specific situation of Chongqing combined results of the survey interview, 18 model variables were proposed in this reserach; the conversion formula between the listed price and the transaction price was obtained through a linear regression.
Forth, the HPM was established in the single market and market segments respectively, and the two models were analysed and compared. Linear and semi-logarithmic functional form was tried in the process; sample fitting analysis was done to choose the best model. The hedonic price and marginal price of the coomercial office were estimated through the model, as well as the the corresponding hedonic price function. At last variables (influence factors) appears in the model was studied, and the significance was sorted.
Fifth, with the support of the rental hedonic price model data (sample point standard rent value), using geostatistics Kriging interpolation and ArcGIS, the DORM was built to provide an analysis maps for the study of rent spatial distribution. Sixth, on the base of rent spatial distribution map provide by DORM, the spatial characteristics and relevance laws was studied from the view point of space, which includes spatial statistics, digital three-dimensional model of the rent, the rent contours, rent profiles, rent gradient, terrain and commercial land rent levels of samples. The planning proposal of the business district of Chongqing city was proposed based on the research results.
Through the establishment of HPM and DORM, the real estate pricing and valuation theory was extended. It also provide basis for decision making and data preparation real estate development, product positioning, fixed asset assessment, urban development and spatial planning. Sum up, this research has a wide range of theoretical research and social practice value.
本文研究以重庆为例,基于重庆市目前发展战略方向的调整,为营建商务运营中心提供属性数据和空间数据成果;另一方面,重庆是多中心、组团式城市,城市结构极具特征性,以其为实证背景具有一定的代表性和现实意义。
在实证研究中,以重庆市商务办公楼租赁市场为切入点,进行租金特征与空间分布的研究。首先,依据重庆市商务办公楼租赁交易数据(包括对调查数据的整合),对特征变量(影响租金的微观因素)进行选取与量化,建立了商务办公楼租金特征价格模型,从微观层面探索了商务办公楼租赁交易的内在动力特征因素和需求偏好;其二,通过特征模型对现有观测样点(商务办公楼)进行租金数据标准化,采用Kriging空间插值方法对未采样点的区域化变量取值进行空间局部估计,建立商务办公楼数字租金空间模型,利用该模型提供的专题图,对租金空间分布结构及其规律进行研究与分析。
本文以重庆市商务办公楼为实证对象,研究可分为两大部分:
①建立商务办公楼租金特征价格模型(Hedonic Price Model,简称HPM),对租金的特征影响因素、特征价格等进行研究。
②建立商务办公楼数字租金空间模型(Digital Office Rent Model,简称DORM),对租金的空间分布结构进行研究。
围绕上述两方面研究内容,主要完成的工作如下:
首先,在明确研究目的、背景和意义的前提下,通过文献检索和调查研究,提出了研究的问题:从微观方面研究城市商务办公楼租金特征,利用空间技术与方法进行租金空间结构分析。
其次,总结有关文献和实证研究成果,提出研究的两个视角:经济学和地理学,即以经济学——新古典经济学为本文理论基础,利用基于此理论的“特征价格模型”作为租金特征价格研究的方法;同时借助于地理学——地统计学原理与方法,在地理信息系统(GIS)的支持下进行商务办公楼租金空间结构分布的研究,以此构建具有创新性的技术路线设计。
第三,对影响租金的特征变量进行文献总结,并根据重庆市场具体情况结合访谈调查的结果,提出了本文选用的模型变量(18个自变量);对模型的自变量量化准则进行了详细的阐述;对因变量租金的挂牌价格和成交价格进行了线性回归,得到两者之间的转换公式。
第四,从统一市场和细分市场两个板块分别构建重庆市商务办公楼租金的特征价格模型(HPM),并加以分析和比较。在模型的构建中,试用线性和半对数的函数形式建立模型,分别对样本进行拟合度分析,从中优选最佳模型。通过模型估计出商务办公楼租金特征价格或边际价格,确定相应的特征价格函数式,对进入模型的特征变量进行了分析和影响程度的排序。
第五,根据租金特征价格模型提供的数据(样点标准租金值),通过地统计学Kriging插值,在ArcGIS软件支撑下,建立了重庆市商务楼数字租金模型(DORM),为研究租金的空间分布规律提供分析图件。
第六,在数字租金空间模型(DORM)提供的租金空间分布专题图的基础上,从空间角度研究来重庆市商务办公楼租金的空间分布特征与规律,其中涉及到租金空间分布统计、租金三维空间模型结构、租金等值线分布、租金剖面形态、租金梯度变化、租金地形特征和商务用地等级划分等分析过程。在研究成果的基础上提出对重庆市商务区规划的建议。
总之,通过商务办公楼租金特征价格模型(HPM)的建立,剖析租金的特征价格,反映出各特征因素对租金的影响程度,进而揭示租赁交易的核心动力和内在机理,为房地产业健康有序的发展提供科学有力的决策依据和分析工具,在城市房地产租赁市场定量分析方面具有一定的开创性;在数字租金空间模型(DORM)的支持下,对租金空间结构分布进行了研究,提出了多中心城市其租金的空间分布规律及其他相关成果,为此,这一研究不仅在理论和实证研究方面上有所拓展,而且为城市空间规划、城市商务用地结构、城市商务经济发展等方面提供了全新的分析方法和实证成果。就此而言,本文的研究具有较强的创新价值和社会实践价值。
As the information industry pushing the urban development and renewal, and improving the business and economy, urban has become the supplier of business functions. The development and remodeling of the urban area is being improved and influenced by the both parties of office rental, potentially. Through studying the office rental market, this dissertation analysed the dynamic characteristics and special distraction structure. At present the quantitative analysis of the micro-market supply and demand characteristic is ignored in most of the empirical studies, as well as the spatial influence of the real estate price. Hence this dissertation tries to study the inner dynamic characteristic of office lease transactions in the micro level, and studies the distribution characteristics of spatial structure, using the theory and method of spatial analysis—geostatistics, in order to provide basis for the urban development and planning.
Taking commercial office building as research subject, the empirical study in this reserach is divided into two part:
①the establishment of commercial office building hedinic price model (HPM)
②the establishment of commercial office building digital rent model (DORM) Focusing on these two aspects, this reserach obtained the following research results:
Firstly, under the premise of understanding research purposes, background and significance, through a large number of literature search and investigation and research, this reserach put forward the issues to be studied, that is studying urban commercial office rent characteristics at the micro level, and conducting rent spatial structure analysis using space technology and methods.
Secondly, recalling the relevant literature and empirical research results, the two perspectives of this study were further clarified: economics - Neo-classical economics was selected as the basic theory of this reserach, and the“hedonic price model”besed on this theory was taken as the analysis method; at the same time, the geography - geographic Information systems (GIS) and geostatistics methods were used to obtain the rent structure distribution in space, in order to build the technical line of this study.
Thirdly, through the literature review of the selection of model variables (impact factor), according to the specific situation of Chongqing combined results of the survey interview, 18 model variables were proposed in this reserach; the conversion formula between the listed price and the transaction price was obtained through a linear regression.
Forth, the HPM was established in the single market and market segments respectively, and the two models were analysed and compared. Linear and semi-logarithmic functional form was tried in the process; sample fitting analysis was done to choose the best model. The hedonic price and marginal price of the coomercial office were estimated through the model, as well as the the corresponding hedonic price function. At last variables (influence factors) appears in the model was studied, and the significance was sorted.
Fifth, with the support of the rental hedonic price model data (sample point standard rent value), using geostatistics Kriging interpolation and ArcGIS, the DORM was built to provide an analysis maps for the study of rent spatial distribution. Sixth, on the base of rent spatial distribution map provide by DORM, the spatial characteristics and relevance laws was studied from the view point of space, which includes spatial statistics, digital three-dimensional model of the rent, the rent contours, rent profiles, rent gradient, terrain and commercial land rent levels of samples. The planning proposal of the business district of Chongqing city was proposed based on the research results.
Through the establishment of HPM and DORM, the real estate pricing and valuation theory was extended. It also provide basis for decision making and data preparation real estate development, product positioning, fixed asset assessment, urban development and spatial planning. Sum up, this research has a wide range of theoretical research and social practice value.
引文
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