四川盆周山地土地利用/覆盖景观空间格局演替研究
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摘要
四川省地处中国西南腹地,自然和人文资源丰富,在西部大开发和社会经济的可持续发展中具有十分重要的战略地位。四川盆周山地地势崎岖,地形地貌和地质构造复杂,岩性多样,生态地质环境非常脆弱。随着资源开发的加剧和经济建设的发展,环境承载力的均衡状态被打破,面临的环境问题日益严峻。破解此难题的基本思路是充分认识环境变化的客观自然规律,实现资源开发和社会经济的可持续发展。土地利用/覆盖是地球表层系统最突出的景观特征,与环境有着密切的联系,其变化是环境变化研究的重要内容,揭示了生态环境演变的重要规律。本文以四川盆周山地为研究区域,围绕着土地利用/覆盖景观空间格局演替这一中心主题,利用生态、环境、系统科学的相关原理和方法,采用遥感和地理信息系统技术,以地理统计分析和动态模拟相结合,研究在复杂山地条件下,土地利用/覆盖景观的空间格局特征和演化规律。主要取得以下认识和成果:
(1)通过对斑块和景观级别的土地利用景观进行分析,研究了耕地、草地、林地、水域、城乡建设用地和未利用土地的土地利用景观空间分布格局和变化特征。研究表明,土地利用类型受山地自然条件的约束,土地利用景观在不同的山地区域内具有明显不同的分布格局和变化趋势特征,其分布格局是自然环境(地形地貌、气温降水等)和人类活动共同作用的结果。在低海拔区域人类活动对土地利用的影响占主导,随海拔升高,地形的影响增强,逐渐从地形与人类活动共同影响,过渡到地形影响占主导,并通过影响土地利用景观的破碎度、均匀度、连通性以及复杂度改变其分布格局。
(2)研究了NDVI植被指数时间序列的空间特性,结果表明,NDVI指数受海拔高度的影响明显,不同海拔高度的年平均NDVI植被指数,具有独立的波动曲线。除高山外,四川盆周山地NDVI指数呈减少趋势。年均NDVI植被指数有明显的层次分布特征,层次分布顺序与海拔高度并不一致,月(旬)NDVI植被指数则具有明显的季节性周期变化趋势。土地利用方式对NDVI植被指数产生直接的影响,与NDVI植被指数有着重要的联系,。
(3)利用混沌理论和混沌时间序列预测方法,重构了NDVI植被指数时间序列的相空间,实现NDVI植被指数的短期预测,证明了NDVI时间序列是非线性确定系统,具有混沌特征。对预测得到时间序列曲线的线性拟合分析表明,研究区的NDVI植被指数仍有减少趋势,不同山地区域的NDVI指数,在不同趋势方向的变化程度有所区别,反映出非山地和高山区域内生态环境在短期内有继续恶化的趋势,而低山、中山和极高山区域的生态环境则有所改善
(4)土地利用格局的主导因素和驱动机制是研究的核心内容,通过建立关联规则数据挖掘模型,提取土地利用景观和环境要素之间的多维关联规则,解释分析土地利用景观格局的环境驱动力。对关联规则的分析结果表明:高程、坡度、气候、土壤、植被是影响土地利用景观格局的重要驱动因素,坡向与土地利用景观的相关性较弱。同时,地形地貌、植被土壤分布和气候之间存在复杂的多重关联关系,这些关联关系反映出在山地复杂自然环境下,土地利用景观的空间分布规律与环境因素之间的内在联系。
(5)在对土地利用与环境的关联关系研究的基础上,选取相关环境要素,建立土地利用景观空间分布格局动态演化模型,模拟预测土地利用景观的变化。模型以地理元胞自动机为核心,用神经网络建立状态转换规则,并通过遗传算法对神经网络进行优化。模拟结果表明,耕地日益减少,被转作其他土地利用类型较多,耕地保护面临日益严峻的形式;林地面积逐年增加,森林资源得到较好的保护,生态环境状况有所恢复,而土地资源的开发利用又导致城乡建设用地规模增涨迅速。土地利用类型变化是自然和人类多重因素共同作用的结果,在充分考虑多种相关因素后,模型能很好的预测土地利用的变化趋势,具有较好的可靠性和可信度。通过元胞自动机动态模拟,也能直观的展示出土地利用的演变过程。
通过本文的研究,分析土地利用/覆盖的时空变化特征,建立土地利用格局演化预测模拟体系和模型,透过土地利用格局变化的表象了解山地生态环境变化的客观规律,为土地利用管理和规划提供参考,有利于促进山地资源环境可持续发展。
In the development campaign of the western regions and the sustainable development of society and economy, Sichuan province, which holds rich nature and culture resources in the hinterland of western China, play a very important strategic role. Mountains around Sichuan Basin have rugged terrain, complex topography and geological structure, multiplicity lithology, and fragile ecological and geological environment. With the rapid development of resource exploitation and economic construction, the equilibrium of environmental carrying capacity is broken. Sequentially, Sichuan province is confronted with increasingly serious environmental problems. To solve this problem, the basic idea is to fully understand the objective nature laws in the environmental changing, and achieve sustainable development in resource exploitation and socio-economic development. Land use/cover is closely linked with the environment, which is the most prominent landscape features in the surface system of earth. Its changing reveals the important evolution law in ecology and environment, and become an important content in changing research of global environment.
The dissertation chose mountains around Sichuan Basin as study area. Surrounded with spatial pattern succession of land use/cover landscape, it study spatial patterns characteristics and evolution laws of land use/cover landscape in complex mountainous by adopting principles and methods in ecology, environment and system science, utilizing the technology of remote sensing and geographic information system, and combining with geographical statistical analysis and dynamic simulation. Main knowledge and result as following:
(1) The spatial distribution pattern and changing characteristics of main land use landscape, such as the arable land, grassland, woodland, water, urban and rural construction land and unused land, are studied by analyzing land use/cover landscape in the patch level and landscape level. Studies have shown that natural conditions of mountains restrict the type of land use. Therefore, the landscape of land use has significantly different distribution patterns and trends within different mountain areas. Their distribution patterns are characterized by the natural environment (topography, temperature, precipitation, etc.) and human activities together. In the low altitude, human activities have a dominant impact on the land-use. With the elevation, the effect of topography increased gradually on land use, and from the combined effect of topography and human activities to the dominant effect of terrain, which change distribution pattern of landscape of land use by bringing about influence on fragmentation, uniformity, connectivity and the complexity.
(2) The spatial characteristics of the NDVI vegetation index time series are studied. The results showed that NDVI index was significantly affected by altitude, in different altitude, have independent wave curve. Except for alpine region, NDVI index of mountains around Sichuan basin have decreased tendence. Annual average NDVI vegetation index have obvious characteristics of gradation distribution, but the order of gradation distribution aren’t consistent with the altitude. Quarter(Month)NDVI vegetation index has obvious seasonal cycle trend. In addition, the type of land use bring a direct impact on vegetation index., and there are important links between land use type and NDVI vegetation index.
(3) In order to achieve a short-term forecast of NDVI vegetation index, chaos theory and chaotic time series prediction method are adopted to reconstruct the phase space of time series of NDVI vegetation index. Studies have shown that the NDVI time series is non-linear deterministic system with chaotic characteristics. Linear fitting analysis, for new time series, shows the NDVI vegetation index is still decreasing in the study area. In different mountain regions, the NDVI vegetation index has different changing degree in changing direction. In the short term, ecological environment become worse in non-mountain and alpine areas, however in low-mountain, middle mountain and high mountain region, ecological environment is improved.
(4) In land use pattern research, the dominant factor and drive mechanism are the cores of the study. Association rules data mining model is constructed to extract multidimensional association rules between elements of landscape and environment,and to explain the environmental driver factors of landscape pattern of land use. Conclusion about the association rules shows that elevation, slope, climate, soil, and vegetation are important driving factors which affect landscape pattern of land use, but the correlation between slope and land use is relatively weaker. At the same time, it prove that there are complex multiple correlation among topography, vegetation, soil and climatic. These correlations reflect intrinsic link between spatial distribution laws of landscape pattern of land use and environmental factors in the complex natural environment of mountains.
(5) Based on the relationship research of land use and environment, relevant environmental factors are selected to establish dynamic evolution model of spatial pattern of land use landscape, which predict changing of the landscape. In the model, geographical cellular automation is introduced as the core of mode. Neural network is used to construct transition rules of cellular automata state, and genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize neural network. Simulation results show that arable land is decreasing and large numbers of arable land was converted to other types of land use, therefore, protection of farmland is faced with increasingly severe situation. Forest area increases year by year, forest resources get better protection, and so ecological environment restored some. However, the development and utilization of land resources has led to rapidly increasing scale of urban and rural construction land. Land use changing is the results of the natural and human factors together. After taking full account many relevant factors, the model can forecast the trend of land use well, and has good reliability and credibility. Furthermore, through the dynamic simulation of cellular automata, the evolution of land use can directly be displayed.
Through the study, spatial and temporal variations of land use/cover are analyzed, and simulation system and model for forcasting evolution of land use pattern is constructed. Finally, those objective laws of mountain eco-environmental changing can be understanded by analyzing appearances from changing of land use pattern. As a result, it will provide references for land management and planning, and it is helpful for promoting sustainable development of resources and environment in mountains.
(1)通过对斑块和景观级别的土地利用景观进行分析,研究了耕地、草地、林地、水域、城乡建设用地和未利用土地的土地利用景观空间分布格局和变化特征。研究表明,土地利用类型受山地自然条件的约束,土地利用景观在不同的山地区域内具有明显不同的分布格局和变化趋势特征,其分布格局是自然环境(地形地貌、气温降水等)和人类活动共同作用的结果。在低海拔区域人类活动对土地利用的影响占主导,随海拔升高,地形的影响增强,逐渐从地形与人类活动共同影响,过渡到地形影响占主导,并通过影响土地利用景观的破碎度、均匀度、连通性以及复杂度改变其分布格局。
(2)研究了NDVI植被指数时间序列的空间特性,结果表明,NDVI指数受海拔高度的影响明显,不同海拔高度的年平均NDVI植被指数,具有独立的波动曲线。除高山外,四川盆周山地NDVI指数呈减少趋势。年均NDVI植被指数有明显的层次分布特征,层次分布顺序与海拔高度并不一致,月(旬)NDVI植被指数则具有明显的季节性周期变化趋势。土地利用方式对NDVI植被指数产生直接的影响,与NDVI植被指数有着重要的联系,。
(3)利用混沌理论和混沌时间序列预测方法,重构了NDVI植被指数时间序列的相空间,实现NDVI植被指数的短期预测,证明了NDVI时间序列是非线性确定系统,具有混沌特征。对预测得到时间序列曲线的线性拟合分析表明,研究区的NDVI植被指数仍有减少趋势,不同山地区域的NDVI指数,在不同趋势方向的变化程度有所区别,反映出非山地和高山区域内生态环境在短期内有继续恶化的趋势,而低山、中山和极高山区域的生态环境则有所改善
(4)土地利用格局的主导因素和驱动机制是研究的核心内容,通过建立关联规则数据挖掘模型,提取土地利用景观和环境要素之间的多维关联规则,解释分析土地利用景观格局的环境驱动力。对关联规则的分析结果表明:高程、坡度、气候、土壤、植被是影响土地利用景观格局的重要驱动因素,坡向与土地利用景观的相关性较弱。同时,地形地貌、植被土壤分布和气候之间存在复杂的多重关联关系,这些关联关系反映出在山地复杂自然环境下,土地利用景观的空间分布规律与环境因素之间的内在联系。
(5)在对土地利用与环境的关联关系研究的基础上,选取相关环境要素,建立土地利用景观空间分布格局动态演化模型,模拟预测土地利用景观的变化。模型以地理元胞自动机为核心,用神经网络建立状态转换规则,并通过遗传算法对神经网络进行优化。模拟结果表明,耕地日益减少,被转作其他土地利用类型较多,耕地保护面临日益严峻的形式;林地面积逐年增加,森林资源得到较好的保护,生态环境状况有所恢复,而土地资源的开发利用又导致城乡建设用地规模增涨迅速。土地利用类型变化是自然和人类多重因素共同作用的结果,在充分考虑多种相关因素后,模型能很好的预测土地利用的变化趋势,具有较好的可靠性和可信度。通过元胞自动机动态模拟,也能直观的展示出土地利用的演变过程。
通过本文的研究,分析土地利用/覆盖的时空变化特征,建立土地利用格局演化预测模拟体系和模型,透过土地利用格局变化的表象了解山地生态环境变化的客观规律,为土地利用管理和规划提供参考,有利于促进山地资源环境可持续发展。
In the development campaign of the western regions and the sustainable development of society and economy, Sichuan province, which holds rich nature and culture resources in the hinterland of western China, play a very important strategic role. Mountains around Sichuan Basin have rugged terrain, complex topography and geological structure, multiplicity lithology, and fragile ecological and geological environment. With the rapid development of resource exploitation and economic construction, the equilibrium of environmental carrying capacity is broken. Sequentially, Sichuan province is confronted with increasingly serious environmental problems. To solve this problem, the basic idea is to fully understand the objective nature laws in the environmental changing, and achieve sustainable development in resource exploitation and socio-economic development. Land use/cover is closely linked with the environment, which is the most prominent landscape features in the surface system of earth. Its changing reveals the important evolution law in ecology and environment, and become an important content in changing research of global environment.
The dissertation chose mountains around Sichuan Basin as study area. Surrounded with spatial pattern succession of land use/cover landscape, it study spatial patterns characteristics and evolution laws of land use/cover landscape in complex mountainous by adopting principles and methods in ecology, environment and system science, utilizing the technology of remote sensing and geographic information system, and combining with geographical statistical analysis and dynamic simulation. Main knowledge and result as following:
(1) The spatial distribution pattern and changing characteristics of main land use landscape, such as the arable land, grassland, woodland, water, urban and rural construction land and unused land, are studied by analyzing land use/cover landscape in the patch level and landscape level. Studies have shown that natural conditions of mountains restrict the type of land use. Therefore, the landscape of land use has significantly different distribution patterns and trends within different mountain areas. Their distribution patterns are characterized by the natural environment (topography, temperature, precipitation, etc.) and human activities together. In the low altitude, human activities have a dominant impact on the land-use. With the elevation, the effect of topography increased gradually on land use, and from the combined effect of topography and human activities to the dominant effect of terrain, which change distribution pattern of landscape of land use by bringing about influence on fragmentation, uniformity, connectivity and the complexity.
(2) The spatial characteristics of the NDVI vegetation index time series are studied. The results showed that NDVI index was significantly affected by altitude, in different altitude, have independent wave curve. Except for alpine region, NDVI index of mountains around Sichuan basin have decreased tendence. Annual average NDVI vegetation index have obvious characteristics of gradation distribution, but the order of gradation distribution aren’t consistent with the altitude. Quarter(Month)NDVI vegetation index has obvious seasonal cycle trend. In addition, the type of land use bring a direct impact on vegetation index., and there are important links between land use type and NDVI vegetation index.
(3) In order to achieve a short-term forecast of NDVI vegetation index, chaos theory and chaotic time series prediction method are adopted to reconstruct the phase space of time series of NDVI vegetation index. Studies have shown that the NDVI time series is non-linear deterministic system with chaotic characteristics. Linear fitting analysis, for new time series, shows the NDVI vegetation index is still decreasing in the study area. In different mountain regions, the NDVI vegetation index has different changing degree in changing direction. In the short term, ecological environment become worse in non-mountain and alpine areas, however in low-mountain, middle mountain and high mountain region, ecological environment is improved.
(4) In land use pattern research, the dominant factor and drive mechanism are the cores of the study. Association rules data mining model is constructed to extract multidimensional association rules between elements of landscape and environment,and to explain the environmental driver factors of landscape pattern of land use. Conclusion about the association rules shows that elevation, slope, climate, soil, and vegetation are important driving factors which affect landscape pattern of land use, but the correlation between slope and land use is relatively weaker. At the same time, it prove that there are complex multiple correlation among topography, vegetation, soil and climatic. These correlations reflect intrinsic link between spatial distribution laws of landscape pattern of land use and environmental factors in the complex natural environment of mountains.
(5) Based on the relationship research of land use and environment, relevant environmental factors are selected to establish dynamic evolution model of spatial pattern of land use landscape, which predict changing of the landscape. In the model, geographical cellular automation is introduced as the core of mode. Neural network is used to construct transition rules of cellular automata state, and genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize neural network. Simulation results show that arable land is decreasing and large numbers of arable land was converted to other types of land use, therefore, protection of farmland is faced with increasingly severe situation. Forest area increases year by year, forest resources get better protection, and so ecological environment restored some. However, the development and utilization of land resources has led to rapidly increasing scale of urban and rural construction land. Land use changing is the results of the natural and human factors together. After taking full account many relevant factors, the model can forecast the trend of land use well, and has good reliability and credibility. Furthermore, through the dynamic simulation of cellular automata, the evolution of land use can directly be displayed.
Through the study, spatial and temporal variations of land use/cover are analyzed, and simulation system and model for forcasting evolution of land use pattern is constructed. Finally, those objective laws of mountain eco-environmental changing can be understanded by analyzing appearances from changing of land use pattern. As a result, it will provide references for land management and planning, and it is helpful for promoting sustainable development of resources and environment in mountains.
引文
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