基于单位劳动成本的中国制造业成本竞争优势实证研究
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摘要
丰富而低廉的劳动力资源一直被认为是中国经济发展的比较优势,低廉的劳动力成本在很大程度上支撑了中国经济的快速发展。目前,劳动力成本上升、民工荒、大量中小企业倒闭等现象引起了人们对中国制造业劳动成本竞争优势的担忧。该方面研究文献不少,但大多数学者都侧总从工资方面来研究比较优势,没有全面考虑影响劳动比较优势的其他因素,存在着局限性,所得结论不符合事实,因此进一步的研究显得尤为必要。
本文采用荷兰格林根大学产出与生产率比较项目(ICOP)提出的单位劳动成本概念,考查与之密切相关的三个指标:劳动力成本、劳动生产率与汇率的变动情况,利用非参数DEA方法、偏离份额方法以及协整误差修正模型等,对中国劳动成本竞争优势及其演变趋势进行深入实证研究。本文整理以及重新估算了中国制造业长达20年的时间序列数据,通过对劳动力成本、劳动生产率和汇率演变趋势进行深入实证研究,分析了改革开放以来我国制造业劳动生产率、劳动力成本、单位劳动成本的变动态势和我国制造业在国际比较中所具有的竞争优势,并通过建立ARIMA模型来预测我国成本竞争优势在未来8年内的发展趋势;通过劳动生产率的分解和劳动力价格变化的分析寻找对我国劳动力比较优势到动态比较优势,竞争优势转化的重要影响因素,获得了新的结论。通过劳动生产率影响因素实证研究,进一步揭示出寻求劳动力规模优势到素质优势、效率优势是中国制造业比较优势持续和提升的关键和战略选择,并提出了通过引进以及自主研发的技术进步与创新、缩小行业技术差距、适当的人力资本配套以及有效的管理经验与技术在行业间外溢等途径持续提高劳动生产率,是制造业竞争优势得以长期维持的实现途径,为相关部门制定产业发展战略与政策提供理论支持和实证依据。
通过研究发现,改革开放以来,中国制造业单位劳动成本及其相关指标分析表明,尽管中国制造业劳动力成本表现出不断上升趋势,劳动力价格优势不断缩小,但是考虑私营单位劳动者人年均工资的研究表明:中国制造业劳动者报酬存在着严重的“被增长”现象,在过去很长一段时间内,工资增长远落后于经济发展速度以及劳动生产率增长速度,历史遗留欠账及其严重,但因为劳动生产率一直以大于劳动力成本上升幅度的速度提高,单位劳动成本整体表现出下降趋势,制造业成本竞争优势处于提升状态;以ARIMA模型预测的结果分析表明未来来自效率方面对成本竞争优势的提升效应在不断弱化。劳动者报酬是一把双刃剑,对于成本竞争优势的效应取决于正反作用的抵消结果,由于历史欠账严重,且鉴于劳动力成本对于人力资本积累的重要性以及提升内需,保证制造业可持续发展有着重要现实意义,得出了与以往学者不同的结论,本文认为应正确引导劳动者报酬的适度增长。因此,按照要素价格均等化理论,劳动者工资水平必然会随着经济发展而不断提升,向国际均等化发展,只有从劳动生产率方面来挖掘成本竞争优势的提升源泉,才能抵消由于劳动力成本上升带来的不利影响。本文第五部分利用非参数DEA方法、偏离份额方法以及协整误差修正模型等对成本竞争优势的强化根源进行了探究,发现要维持甚至强化成本竞争优势,除了要合理引导劳动者报酬增长外,更关键是在现有的外生比较优势基础上,利用外商直接投资从技术进步、技术效率、资本深化、人力资本积累等方面努力,创造出内生比较优势,保持甚至强化成本竞争优势。
Abundant and cheap labor force has been considered as comparative advantage during China's economic development, low labor costs support the rapid development of China's economy. Currently, phenomena such as labor costs, labor shortage, collapse of a large number of small and medium enterprises cause peoples’s concern on labor cost in China’s manufacturing. Most of rearch in this aspect at the present time from the angle of wage, and lack of study on other factors which effect the comparative advantage as well. Inevitablely, some limitation exist in those research, and then the conclusions diverge from the truth too, so it is particular necessary to make further study on this aspect.
In this paper, the writer adopt the concept of“unit labor cost”(ULC)which introdced in item comparative of output and productivity of netherland(sICOP), to check three indexes closely related to ULC: labor cost, productivity and exchange rate and their alteration, taking advantage of non-parametric DEA, the Shift-share methods and cointegration Error models to make further empirical research on competitive advantage of labor cost in China and its developing tendency. Based on 20 years of time series data of China cleaned up, the writer made a deep emperical study on labor cost, productivity, exchange rate and their developing tendency , analyzed their alteration situation and competitive advantage of China’s manufacturing in international manufacturing; via the decomposition of productivity and alteration of labor cost, the writer explore the dynamic comparative advantage of labor cost from still situation, and important competitive advantage transforming factor, then get an new important conclusion.
Through emperical research of effect factor on productivity, the write explored out that quality advantage(not quantity advantage) and efficiency advantage was the key point and stratage decision on maintaining and upgrading the china’s manufacturing comparative advantag. Further more, introducing and independent R&Dand innovation , reducing the difference of technology among different industries, offering appropriate human capitical support system and effective management and knowledge spillover to increase productivity , should be consided as implementation method to maintain the advantage.which will provide the upgrading and strengthening measures and strategic choice for the relevant departments .
After further study, the writer found, ULC of China’s manufacturing and its relative indicator show that the labor cost advantage is increasing with decreasing tendency of ULC, due to ascend range of productivity higher than labor cost, though labor cost of china’s manufacturing is increasing continuously and price advantage of labor is decreasing, which indicate that the ULC is decreasing; further review on exchange rate, deduct its negative effect , we found that cost and price advantage of exportant products still be maintained and increased. Hereby, later, cost competitive advantage of manufacturing in China should be based on high level productivity. Accord to the theory of factor price,follow the economy growth, labore wage level will be increased inevitably. None but upgrade of productivity could set out negative effect of increasment of labor cost. In order to upgrade productivity and quality of labor, based on exogenous comparative advantage and foreign direct investment , some efforts from technical progress, technical efficiency, capital deepening, human capital should be made to create endogenesis comparative advantage, maintain an enhance to the labor competitive advantage.
本文采用荷兰格林根大学产出与生产率比较项目(ICOP)提出的单位劳动成本概念,考查与之密切相关的三个指标:劳动力成本、劳动生产率与汇率的变动情况,利用非参数DEA方法、偏离份额方法以及协整误差修正模型等,对中国劳动成本竞争优势及其演变趋势进行深入实证研究。本文整理以及重新估算了中国制造业长达20年的时间序列数据,通过对劳动力成本、劳动生产率和汇率演变趋势进行深入实证研究,分析了改革开放以来我国制造业劳动生产率、劳动力成本、单位劳动成本的变动态势和我国制造业在国际比较中所具有的竞争优势,并通过建立ARIMA模型来预测我国成本竞争优势在未来8年内的发展趋势;通过劳动生产率的分解和劳动力价格变化的分析寻找对我国劳动力比较优势到动态比较优势,竞争优势转化的重要影响因素,获得了新的结论。通过劳动生产率影响因素实证研究,进一步揭示出寻求劳动力规模优势到素质优势、效率优势是中国制造业比较优势持续和提升的关键和战略选择,并提出了通过引进以及自主研发的技术进步与创新、缩小行业技术差距、适当的人力资本配套以及有效的管理经验与技术在行业间外溢等途径持续提高劳动生产率,是制造业竞争优势得以长期维持的实现途径,为相关部门制定产业发展战略与政策提供理论支持和实证依据。
通过研究发现,改革开放以来,中国制造业单位劳动成本及其相关指标分析表明,尽管中国制造业劳动力成本表现出不断上升趋势,劳动力价格优势不断缩小,但是考虑私营单位劳动者人年均工资的研究表明:中国制造业劳动者报酬存在着严重的“被增长”现象,在过去很长一段时间内,工资增长远落后于经济发展速度以及劳动生产率增长速度,历史遗留欠账及其严重,但因为劳动生产率一直以大于劳动力成本上升幅度的速度提高,单位劳动成本整体表现出下降趋势,制造业成本竞争优势处于提升状态;以ARIMA模型预测的结果分析表明未来来自效率方面对成本竞争优势的提升效应在不断弱化。劳动者报酬是一把双刃剑,对于成本竞争优势的效应取决于正反作用的抵消结果,由于历史欠账严重,且鉴于劳动力成本对于人力资本积累的重要性以及提升内需,保证制造业可持续发展有着重要现实意义,得出了与以往学者不同的结论,本文认为应正确引导劳动者报酬的适度增长。因此,按照要素价格均等化理论,劳动者工资水平必然会随着经济发展而不断提升,向国际均等化发展,只有从劳动生产率方面来挖掘成本竞争优势的提升源泉,才能抵消由于劳动力成本上升带来的不利影响。本文第五部分利用非参数DEA方法、偏离份额方法以及协整误差修正模型等对成本竞争优势的强化根源进行了探究,发现要维持甚至强化成本竞争优势,除了要合理引导劳动者报酬增长外,更关键是在现有的外生比较优势基础上,利用外商直接投资从技术进步、技术效率、资本深化、人力资本积累等方面努力,创造出内生比较优势,保持甚至强化成本竞争优势。
Abundant and cheap labor force has been considered as comparative advantage during China's economic development, low labor costs support the rapid development of China's economy. Currently, phenomena such as labor costs, labor shortage, collapse of a large number of small and medium enterprises cause peoples’s concern on labor cost in China’s manufacturing. Most of rearch in this aspect at the present time from the angle of wage, and lack of study on other factors which effect the comparative advantage as well. Inevitablely, some limitation exist in those research, and then the conclusions diverge from the truth too, so it is particular necessary to make further study on this aspect.
In this paper, the writer adopt the concept of“unit labor cost”(ULC)which introdced in item comparative of output and productivity of netherland(sICOP), to check three indexes closely related to ULC: labor cost, productivity and exchange rate and their alteration, taking advantage of non-parametric DEA, the Shift-share methods and cointegration Error models to make further empirical research on competitive advantage of labor cost in China and its developing tendency. Based on 20 years of time series data of China cleaned up, the writer made a deep emperical study on labor cost, productivity, exchange rate and their developing tendency , analyzed their alteration situation and competitive advantage of China’s manufacturing in international manufacturing; via the decomposition of productivity and alteration of labor cost, the writer explore the dynamic comparative advantage of labor cost from still situation, and important competitive advantage transforming factor, then get an new important conclusion.
Through emperical research of effect factor on productivity, the write explored out that quality advantage(not quantity advantage) and efficiency advantage was the key point and stratage decision on maintaining and upgrading the china’s manufacturing comparative advantag. Further more, introducing and independent R&Dand innovation , reducing the difference of technology among different industries, offering appropriate human capitical support system and effective management and knowledge spillover to increase productivity , should be consided as implementation method to maintain the advantage.which will provide the upgrading and strengthening measures and strategic choice for the relevant departments .
After further study, the writer found, ULC of China’s manufacturing and its relative indicator show that the labor cost advantage is increasing with decreasing tendency of ULC, due to ascend range of productivity higher than labor cost, though labor cost of china’s manufacturing is increasing continuously and price advantage of labor is decreasing, which indicate that the ULC is decreasing; further review on exchange rate, deduct its negative effect , we found that cost and price advantage of exportant products still be maintained and increased. Hereby, later, cost competitive advantage of manufacturing in China should be based on high level productivity. Accord to the theory of factor price,follow the economy growth, labore wage level will be increased inevitably. None but upgrade of productivity could set out negative effect of increasment of labor cost. In order to upgrade productivity and quality of labor, based on exogenous comparative advantage and foreign direct investment , some efforts from technical progress, technical efficiency, capital deepening, human capital should be made to create endogenesis comparative advantage, maintain an enhance to the labor competitive advantage.
引文
①初级生产要素包括一般的天然资源、气候、地理位置和初级人力资源等,后天创造要素的包括基础设施、知识资源、资本和技术资源等。
②参见迈克尔·波特的《国家竞争优势》(2002,中译本),第116-120页。
①德里克·博斯沃思、彼德·道金斯、索尔斯坦·斯特龙巴克著.劳动市场经济学.何璋等译[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2003,p558.
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