输配水系统的脆弱性及风险评估研究
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摘要
本文以城市输配水系统的脆弱性分析及风险评估为研究内容,进行了系统脆弱性的现状分析,并建立了系统的水力脆弱性模型和水质脆弱性模型,以期达到消减风险、提高供水企业安全管理的最优目的。
首先,对输配水系统脆弱性的现状进行了分析,指出了其存在的问题——系统漏损严重、系统存在压力瓶颈以及水质污染严重,引出了对系统进行脆弱性评估的必要性,并提出了系统脆弱性评估的两大方面——水力脆弱性评估和水质脆弱性评估。
其次,分析了影响输配水系统水力脆弱性的因素——给水管网的网络拓扑关系、管网节点的供水级别与度数以及给水管网的水力特性;建立了系统的水力脆弱性评估模型和水力风险评估模型;以华北某高新区输配水系统为研究对象,进行了实际管网的脆弱性评估,为帮助供水企业决策系统中的水力高风险区域提供理论依据。
再次,分析了影响输配水系统水质脆弱性的因素——余氯、水龄等;建立了节点的水质脆弱性指标、系统的水质脆弱性指标和系统的风险等级;以华北某高新区输配水系统为研究对象,进行了实际管网的水质脆弱性评估和水质风险评定,为水质在线监测仪器的优化配置和帮助供水企业决策系统中的水质高风险区域提供理论依据。
最后,基于系统脆弱性及风险评估的结果,提出了输配水系统风险消减的措施以及风险控制的优先级别,最大程度地降低了给水输配系统的风险。
In order to achieve the risk mitigation and improve the security management of water enterprise, the hydraulic vulnerability model and the vulnerability model of water quality about the city water distribution system were established in this paper.
First of all, the paper analyzed the actuality of vulnerability assessment of water transmission and distribution system and pointed out the problems such as serious system leakage, system pressure bottlenecks, and serious water pollution to lead to the necessary for vulnerability assessment. At the same time, the paper put forward two major aspects of vulnerability assessment-the hydraulic vulnerability assessment and vulnerability assessment of water quality.
Secondly, the paper analyzed the factors that impacted the hydraulic vulnerability of the water distribution system like as the network topology relationship of water distribution network, the water supply level and degree of network nodes and hydraulic properties of water distribution network and established hydraulic vulnerability assessment model and hydraulic risk assessment model, finally, chose the water distribution system of a high-tech zones in North China as the study object, carried out the actual pipe network vulnerability assessments. The research could provide a theoretical basis to water supply enterprises and help to make a decision of hydraulic high-risk regions.
Thirdly, the paper analyzed the factors which impacted the vulnerability of the water quality of the distribution system such as residual chlorine and water age, etc.. set up the node vulnerability indicators of water quality, the system vulnerability indicators of water quality and risk rating of system. Finally, take example for the water distribution system of high-tech zones in North China, carried out vulnerability assessment and risk assessment of water quality and provided a theoretical basis to water supply enterprises for helping them to optimize the allocation of water quality monitoring equipment online and to make decision of high-risk regions of water quality.
Finally, based on system vulnerability and risk assessment results, the paper put forward the risk mitigation measures of water distribution system and the priority level of risk controlling, reduced the risk of the water distribution system maximally.
首先,对输配水系统脆弱性的现状进行了分析,指出了其存在的问题——系统漏损严重、系统存在压力瓶颈以及水质污染严重,引出了对系统进行脆弱性评估的必要性,并提出了系统脆弱性评估的两大方面——水力脆弱性评估和水质脆弱性评估。
其次,分析了影响输配水系统水力脆弱性的因素——给水管网的网络拓扑关系、管网节点的供水级别与度数以及给水管网的水力特性;建立了系统的水力脆弱性评估模型和水力风险评估模型;以华北某高新区输配水系统为研究对象,进行了实际管网的脆弱性评估,为帮助供水企业决策系统中的水力高风险区域提供理论依据。
再次,分析了影响输配水系统水质脆弱性的因素——余氯、水龄等;建立了节点的水质脆弱性指标、系统的水质脆弱性指标和系统的风险等级;以华北某高新区输配水系统为研究对象,进行了实际管网的水质脆弱性评估和水质风险评定,为水质在线监测仪器的优化配置和帮助供水企业决策系统中的水质高风险区域提供理论依据。
最后,基于系统脆弱性及风险评估的结果,提出了输配水系统风险消减的措施以及风险控制的优先级别,最大程度地降低了给水输配系统的风险。
In order to achieve the risk mitigation and improve the security management of water enterprise, the hydraulic vulnerability model and the vulnerability model of water quality about the city water distribution system were established in this paper.
First of all, the paper analyzed the actuality of vulnerability assessment of water transmission and distribution system and pointed out the problems such as serious system leakage, system pressure bottlenecks, and serious water pollution to lead to the necessary for vulnerability assessment. At the same time, the paper put forward two major aspects of vulnerability assessment-the hydraulic vulnerability assessment and vulnerability assessment of water quality.
Secondly, the paper analyzed the factors that impacted the hydraulic vulnerability of the water distribution system like as the network topology relationship of water distribution network, the water supply level and degree of network nodes and hydraulic properties of water distribution network and established hydraulic vulnerability assessment model and hydraulic risk assessment model, finally, chose the water distribution system of a high-tech zones in North China as the study object, carried out the actual pipe network vulnerability assessments. The research could provide a theoretical basis to water supply enterprises and help to make a decision of hydraulic high-risk regions.
Thirdly, the paper analyzed the factors which impacted the vulnerability of the water quality of the distribution system such as residual chlorine and water age, etc.. set up the node vulnerability indicators of water quality, the system vulnerability indicators of water quality and risk rating of system. Finally, take example for the water distribution system of high-tech zones in North China, carried out vulnerability assessment and risk assessment of water quality and provided a theoretical basis to water supply enterprises for helping them to optimize the allocation of water quality monitoring equipment online and to make decision of high-risk regions of water quality.
Finally, based on system vulnerability and risk assessment results, the paper put forward the risk mitigation measures of water distribution system and the priority level of risk controlling, reduced the risk of the water distribution system maximally.
引文
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