金融帐户开放与银行稳定的关系的探讨
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摘要
20世纪80年代以来，全球掀起了一股金融自由化和金融全球化的浪潮，在1994年所有发达国家完成资本和金融账户的开放以来，资本和金融账户的开放问题就成了发展中国家的单方面任务。从对发展中国家的资本和金融账户开放的研究中不难发现：发展中国家资本和金融账户开放的过程是一个充满风险和危机的过程，20世纪80年代的拉美债务危机，1994年的墨西哥金融危机，1997年的东南亚金融危机表明：在当代金融、经济条件下，发展中国家资本和金融账户的开放是极具风险性的，因此深入研究发展中国家资本和金融账户开放后的有关问题，无疑对我国未来资本和金融账户的稳步开放和金融风险的有效防范有重要的意义。
对发展中国家的金融项目的开放问题进行研究是一个相当大的课题，本文选取了其中的一点，将银行体系作为一个切入点。绝大多数的发展中国家，由于国内资本市场很不发达，银行是主要的金融中介，因而在资本和金融账户开放的条件下，发展中国家的外资流入主要是通过银行中介进行的，从而银行在发展中国家资本和金融账户的开放中扮演着重要角色。无数发展中国家的实践表明：银行对外借贷的放开对广大发展中国家而言是其资本和金融项目开放最具实质性的一步，发展中国家大规模的外资流入几乎都是在其银行对外借贷之后才发生的，而银行开放后的大规模的外资流入又往往是发展中国家经济过度高涨以及此后经济崩溃的最主要原因。
我国也是银行主导的发展中国家，银行融资在整个融资体系中比重达80％以上，因而银行中介也将是我国资本和金融项目开放后外资进出的重要渠道。
另外，发展中国家长期经济赶超以及由此而产生的过度银行化和道德风险，使发展中国家的银行体系通常十分脆弱，如泰国1998年银行不良资产比重达18％，最高时达25％，占GDP的40％；韩国银行不良资产1998年达14％，最高时达25％，占GDP的34％，因而在金融项目开放、经济金融波动性明显增大的条件下，发展中国家脆弱的银行体系极易导致经济、
华东师范大学硕士学位论文
金融危机。事实上，发展中国家的金融危机绝大多数是从银行危机开始的。
中国银行体系也比较脆弱，2001年9月底，四大国有银行的不良资产比重
达26、6%，因此银行体系的稳定是中国金融项目开放的重要制约条件和能
否成功开放的关键。因此为最小化金融项目开放的风险和最大化开放的收
益，在中国金融项目开放的稳步推进过程中，保持银行的稳定是极为重要
的。
全文共分为四个章节，第一章对资本和金融项目开放后可能对银行体
系的影响和冲击进行了分析，包括外资的大量流入对银行体系的资产负债
表的结构和规模的影响，以及通过资本流动所导致的一些不稳定因素间接
地对银行体系的影响。第二章分析了如大多数已开放金融项目的发展中国
家，在银行体系普遍具有道德风险、比较脆弱的情况下，开放金融项目的
后果进行了理论上的分析。第一节分析了金融项目开放后的过度借贷综合
症:第二节分析了开放后的过度投资和泡沫经济。第三章分析了资本和金
融项目开放与银行危机、货币危机间的关系。由于己开放金融项目的大多
数发展中国家是在仍旧采取固定汇率制或盯住汇率制时便放开了资本的管
制，于是固定汇率制或盯住汇率制便成为资本跨国流动后极易受冲击的一
个部分，当政府无力维持本币币值时，币值的波动便会对银行体系产生极
大的冲击，导致银行危机的产生。这部分是通过研究在债权人和投机者之
间存在着的“策略性的互补”来揭示发展中国家在80、90年代放开金融项
目后，所特有的银行危机与货币危机同时发生的现象，而这在80年代之前
国际资本流动管制还很严格的情况下是不曾有的。第四章介绍了部分发展
中国家的经验，并在此基础上对中国的有关问题进行了分析，包括目前中
国资本管制的状况、中国银行业的状况以及为了减少金融项目开放可能代
来的冲击而应采取的应对策略，以期能为未来中国的金融项目的开放提供
有益的借鉴。
Since the 1980, there is a tide of financial freedom and financial globalization, since 1994 when all developed countries have finished opening the " Capital and financial account", the opening of the " Capital and financial account" become the developing countries' duties. Through studying of the opening of the " Capital and financial account" of the developing countries, we find that the opening of the "financial account" is full of crises and risks for these countries. The 1980's Latin-American debt crises, the Mexico financial crises in 1994 and the Financial Crises in Asian in 1997 showed that the opening of the financial account for developing countries a process full of risks. So studying the problems following opening of the financial account in developing countries, undoubtedly is of great significance for our country's opening the financial account in the future and prevention the financial risks.
In most of the developing countries, since the undevelopment of the capital market, banks are the main financial intermediaries. So after opening the financial account, the foreign capital mostly entered these countries through banks. Most of the developing countries ' experience show: the relaxation of the limits of the banks' borrowing from abroad is a critical step for the developing countries to open their financial account, the massive capital inflow almost happened after the banks 'being allowed to borrow from overseas. Meanwhile the large scale's capital inflow always was the main reason of the developing countries' economy's boom and later collapsed of the economy.
In our country, banks also undertake above 80% of the fund circulation. So banks will be the main course of the inflow and outflow of capital when we open the financial account.
But the banks in developing countries always were very fragile because of the over-banking and moral hazards.
This article was divided into four chapters. The first chapter analyzes the influence and the impact the banks suffered after the opening of the financial account,
through influencing the scale and the structure of the banks' balance sheet owing to the capital inflow, and influencing the banks system indirectly by some instable factors induced by capital inflow.
The second chapter analyzes the consequence of the opening of the financial account when the bank system was fragile and full of moral hazards. The first part analyzes the "over-borrowing syndrome". The second part analyzes the over-investment and bubble economy.
The third chapter analyzes the relationship of the opening of the financial account and the bank crises and balance-of-payment crises. Because most of the countries that have opened their financial account was still adopted the fixed or the pegged exchange system. So the exchange system became one of the easily attacked parts. When the government unable to maintain the exchange rate, the volatility of the exchange rate will be a great instable factor to the banks, leading to the bank crises. This part was to study the "strategic complementarities" between the creditors and the speculators to disclose the distinctive phenomenon that the bank crises and the balance-of-payment crises occurred together after opening the financial account in developing countries, while this was not seen before 1980's when the international capital flowing was strictly regulated.
The fourth chapter introduces some of the developing countries' experiences, and later analyze some of the problems of China, it includes the state of the capital regulation in today's China, the problems of the banking and the measures to take to reduce the impact in order to provide some beneficial reference for our county's opening of the financial account.
对发展中国家的金融项目的开放问题进行研究是一个相当大的课题，本文选取了其中的一点，将银行体系作为一个切入点。绝大多数的发展中国家，由于国内资本市场很不发达，银行是主要的金融中介，因而在资本和金融账户开放的条件下，发展中国家的外资流入主要是通过银行中介进行的，从而银行在发展中国家资本和金融账户的开放中扮演着重要角色。无数发展中国家的实践表明：银行对外借贷的放开对广大发展中国家而言是其资本和金融项目开放最具实质性的一步，发展中国家大规模的外资流入几乎都是在其银行对外借贷之后才发生的，而银行开放后的大规模的外资流入又往往是发展中国家经济过度高涨以及此后经济崩溃的最主要原因。
我国也是银行主导的发展中国家，银行融资在整个融资体系中比重达80％以上，因而银行中介也将是我国资本和金融项目开放后外资进出的重要渠道。
另外，发展中国家长期经济赶超以及由此而产生的过度银行化和道德风险，使发展中国家的银行体系通常十分脆弱，如泰国1998年银行不良资产比重达18％，最高时达25％，占GDP的40％；韩国银行不良资产1998年达14％，最高时达25％，占GDP的34％，因而在金融项目开放、经济金融波动性明显增大的条件下，发展中国家脆弱的银行体系极易导致经济、
华东师范大学硕士学位论文
金融危机。事实上，发展中国家的金融危机绝大多数是从银行危机开始的。
中国银行体系也比较脆弱，2001年9月底，四大国有银行的不良资产比重
达26、6%，因此银行体系的稳定是中国金融项目开放的重要制约条件和能
否成功开放的关键。因此为最小化金融项目开放的风险和最大化开放的收
益，在中国金融项目开放的稳步推进过程中，保持银行的稳定是极为重要
的。
全文共分为四个章节，第一章对资本和金融项目开放后可能对银行体
系的影响和冲击进行了分析，包括外资的大量流入对银行体系的资产负债
表的结构和规模的影响，以及通过资本流动所导致的一些不稳定因素间接
地对银行体系的影响。第二章分析了如大多数已开放金融项目的发展中国
家，在银行体系普遍具有道德风险、比较脆弱的情况下，开放金融项目的
后果进行了理论上的分析。第一节分析了金融项目开放后的过度借贷综合
症:第二节分析了开放后的过度投资和泡沫经济。第三章分析了资本和金
融项目开放与银行危机、货币危机间的关系。由于己开放金融项目的大多
数发展中国家是在仍旧采取固定汇率制或盯住汇率制时便放开了资本的管
制，于是固定汇率制或盯住汇率制便成为资本跨国流动后极易受冲击的一
个部分，当政府无力维持本币币值时，币值的波动便会对银行体系产生极
大的冲击，导致银行危机的产生。这部分是通过研究在债权人和投机者之
间存在着的“策略性的互补”来揭示发展中国家在80、90年代放开金融项
目后，所特有的银行危机与货币危机同时发生的现象，而这在80年代之前
国际资本流动管制还很严格的情况下是不曾有的。第四章介绍了部分发展
中国家的经验，并在此基础上对中国的有关问题进行了分析，包括目前中
国资本管制的状况、中国银行业的状况以及为了减少金融项目开放可能代
来的冲击而应采取的应对策略，以期能为未来中国的金融项目的开放提供
有益的借鉴。
Since the 1980, there is a tide of financial freedom and financial globalization, since 1994 when all developed countries have finished opening the " Capital and financial account", the opening of the " Capital and financial account" become the developing countries' duties. Through studying of the opening of the " Capital and financial account" of the developing countries, we find that the opening of the "financial account" is full of crises and risks for these countries. The 1980's Latin-American debt crises, the Mexico financial crises in 1994 and the Financial Crises in Asian in 1997 showed that the opening of the financial account for developing countries a process full of risks. So studying the problems following opening of the financial account in developing countries, undoubtedly is of great significance for our country's opening the financial account in the future and prevention the financial risks.
In most of the developing countries, since the undevelopment of the capital market, banks are the main financial intermediaries. So after opening the financial account, the foreign capital mostly entered these countries through banks. Most of the developing countries ' experience show: the relaxation of the limits of the banks' borrowing from abroad is a critical step for the developing countries to open their financial account, the massive capital inflow almost happened after the banks 'being allowed to borrow from overseas. Meanwhile the large scale's capital inflow always was the main reason of the developing countries' economy's boom and later collapsed of the economy.
In our country, banks also undertake above 80% of the fund circulation. So banks will be the main course of the inflow and outflow of capital when we open the financial account.
But the banks in developing countries always were very fragile because of the over-banking and moral hazards.
This article was divided into four chapters. The first chapter analyzes the influence and the impact the banks suffered after the opening of the financial account,
through influencing the scale and the structure of the banks' balance sheet owing to the capital inflow, and influencing the banks system indirectly by some instable factors induced by capital inflow.
The second chapter analyzes the consequence of the opening of the financial account when the bank system was fragile and full of moral hazards. The first part analyzes the "over-borrowing syndrome". The second part analyzes the over-investment and bubble economy.
The third chapter analyzes the relationship of the opening of the financial account and the bank crises and balance-of-payment crises. Because most of the countries that have opened their financial account was still adopted the fixed or the pegged exchange system. So the exchange system became one of the easily attacked parts. When the government unable to maintain the exchange rate, the volatility of the exchange rate will be a great instable factor to the banks, leading to the bank crises. This part was to study the "strategic complementarities" between the creditors and the speculators to disclose the distinctive phenomenon that the bank crises and the balance-of-payment crises occurred together after opening the financial account in developing countries, while this was not seen before 1980's when the international capital flowing was strictly regulated.
The fourth chapter introduces some of the developing countries' experiences, and later analyze some of the problems of China, it includes the state of the capital regulation in today's China, the problems of the banking and the measures to take to reduce the impact in order to provide some beneficial reference for our county's opening of the financial account.
引文
1、罗纳得．I．麦金农：《经济市场化的次序——向市场经济过渡时期的金融控制》，上海人民出版社，1999年；
2、胡祖六：“东亚的银行体系与金融危机”，《世界经济评论》，1998年5，6期；
3、苏同华：《银行危机论》，中国金融出版社，2000年；
4、国际货币基金组织：《国际资本市场—发展、前景和政策》，中国金融出版社，1996年；
5、唐纳德．J．马西森，莉莉亚纳．罗哈斯—苏雷亚斯著，《资本帐户自由化—经验与问题》，中文版，中国金融出版社，1995年；
6、张礼卿：“论发展中国家的资本帐户开放”，《国际金融研究》，1998年3、4期；
7、张礼卿：“亚洲金融危机的教训”，《国际金融研究》1998年，1期；
8、王国刚：《资本账户开放与中国金融改革》，社会科学出版社，2003；
9、焦瑾璞：《中国银行业竞争力比较》，中国金融出版社，2002年；
10、何德旭：《中国金融创新与发展研究》，经济科学出版社，2001年；
11、国际货币基金组织：《国际收支手册》第五版，中国金融出版社，1994年；
12、华民：《中国资本项目的开放：挑战与机遇》，上海学林出版社，2003；
13、科普兰：《汇率与国际金融》，中国金融出版社，1992年；
14、萨克斯：《全球视角的宏观经济学》，上海三联书店，1997年；
15、国际货币基金组织：《国际资本市场：发展、前景和主要政策问题》各期，中国金融出版社；
1、Demirguc—Kunt, and Detragiache,E (1998) "The Determinants of Banking Crises:Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries", IMF Staff paper,VOL,45,No, 1,1998;
2、Mckinnon,R.,and Pill, H. "Credible Liberalization and International Capital Flow:the Overborrowing Syndrome" in T.Ito and A.o.Kruger.ed .,Financial Deregulation and International in East Asia,Chicago University Press, 1996;
3、Krugman ,P."What happened to Asia",mimeo ,1998;
4、Johnson,B.,Darbar,S and Echeverria, C. "Sequencing Capital Account Liberalization:Lessons from the Experiences in Chile, Indonesia, Korea ,and Thailand", IMF Working Paper, 1997;
5、Miller, V., "The Double Drain with a Cross-Border Twist: More on the Relationship between Banking and Currency Crises," American Economic Review, Vol. 88,No.2,1998;
6、Enrica Detragiache, "Bank Fragility and International Capital Mobility",IMF Working Paper,1999;
7、Ilan Goldfajn and Rodrigo O.Valdes, "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises: The Role of Liquidity", IMF Working Paper, 1997;
8、Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carmen M. Reinhart, "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-payment problems", The American Economic Review 1999,Vol89,No.3;
9、Itay Goldstein: "Strategic Complementarities and the Twin Crises", IMF Working Paper, 2004;
10、Thomes F.Hellman, Kevin C. Murdock, and Joseph E. Stiglitz, "Liberalization, Moral hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are capital requirement enough?", The American Economic Review, March 2000, Vol 90, No. 1;
11、Caprio, G. "Safe and Sound Banking in developing countries: We are not in Kansas anymore", the World Bank Policy Research Paper No. 1739, 1997;
12、La-Forte, Guillemo, "The Financial system Macroeconomic stability: the Chilean experience", in "Financial Sector Reform, Economic Growth, and stability :Experience in Selected Asian and Latin American Countries", World Bank, 1994;
13、Allen, Mark; Rosenberg, Christoph B., "A balance sheet approach to financial crises", IMF Working Paper, 2002;
14、Kose, Ayhan, Prasad, Eswar S., "Financial integration and macroeconomic volatility", IMF Working Paper,2003;
15、Enoch, Charles A.; Guide, Anne-Made, "Banking crises and bank resolution: Experience in some transition economies"; IMF Working Paper, 2002;
16、Collyns, Charles V,; Senhadji, Abdelhak.S., "Lending booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crises", IMF Working Paper, 2002;
2、胡祖六：“东亚的银行体系与金融危机”，《世界经济评论》，1998年5，6期；
3、苏同华：《银行危机论》，中国金融出版社，2000年；
4、国际货币基金组织：《国际资本市场—发展、前景和政策》，中国金融出版社，1996年；
5、唐纳德．J．马西森，莉莉亚纳．罗哈斯—苏雷亚斯著，《资本帐户自由化—经验与问题》，中文版，中国金融出版社，1995年；
6、张礼卿：“论发展中国家的资本帐户开放”，《国际金融研究》，1998年3、4期；
7、张礼卿：“亚洲金融危机的教训”，《国际金融研究》1998年，1期；
8、王国刚：《资本账户开放与中国金融改革》，社会科学出版社，2003；
9、焦瑾璞：《中国银行业竞争力比较》，中国金融出版社，2002年；
10、何德旭：《中国金融创新与发展研究》，经济科学出版社，2001年；
11、国际货币基金组织：《国际收支手册》第五版，中国金融出版社，1994年；
12、华民：《中国资本项目的开放：挑战与机遇》，上海学林出版社，2003；
13、科普兰：《汇率与国际金融》，中国金融出版社，1992年；
14、萨克斯：《全球视角的宏观经济学》，上海三联书店，1997年；
15、国际货币基金组织：《国际资本市场：发展、前景和主要政策问题》各期，中国金融出版社；
1、Demirguc—Kunt, and Detragiache,E (1998) "The Determinants of Banking Crises:Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries", IMF Staff paper,VOL,45,No, 1,1998;
2、Mckinnon,R.,and Pill, H. "Credible Liberalization and International Capital Flow:the Overborrowing Syndrome" in T.Ito and A.o.Kruger.ed .,Financial Deregulation and International in East Asia,Chicago University Press, 1996;
3、Krugman ,P."What happened to Asia",mimeo ,1998;
4、Johnson,B.,Darbar,S and Echeverria, C. "Sequencing Capital Account Liberalization:Lessons from the Experiences in Chile, Indonesia, Korea ,and Thailand", IMF Working Paper, 1997;
5、Miller, V., "The Double Drain with a Cross-Border Twist: More on the Relationship between Banking and Currency Crises," American Economic Review, Vol. 88,No.2,1998;
6、Enrica Detragiache, "Bank Fragility and International Capital Mobility",IMF Working Paper,1999;
7、Ilan Goldfajn and Rodrigo O.Valdes, "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises: The Role of Liquidity", IMF Working Paper, 1997;
8、Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carmen M. Reinhart, "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-payment problems", The American Economic Review 1999,Vol89,No.3;
9、Itay Goldstein: "Strategic Complementarities and the Twin Crises", IMF Working Paper, 2004;
10、Thomes F.Hellman, Kevin C. Murdock, and Joseph E. Stiglitz, "Liberalization, Moral hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are capital requirement enough?", The American Economic Review, March 2000, Vol 90, No. 1;
11、Caprio, G. "Safe and Sound Banking in developing countries: We are not in Kansas anymore", the World Bank Policy Research Paper No. 1739, 1997;
12、La-Forte, Guillemo, "The Financial system Macroeconomic stability: the Chilean experience", in "Financial Sector Reform, Economic Growth, and stability :Experience in Selected Asian and Latin American Countries", World Bank, 1994;
13、Allen, Mark; Rosenberg, Christoph B., "A balance sheet approach to financial crises", IMF Working Paper, 2002;
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