中国银行体系脆弱性研究
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摘要
在中国，银行是金融体系的核心，银行体系的稳定对中国经济的持续稳定发展至关重要。随着中国的入世，中国银行业也面临越来越大的竞争压力。中国银行体系目前存在的问题较多，如何从根本上改变其现状是当前亟待解决的问题。本文从银行脆弱性的角度，借鉴国内外学者的有关研究成果，对中国银行体系脆弱性的成因进行了系统的分析。
从众多相关论著中可以得出结论，银行具有内在的脆弱性，而外在的因素也会在一定程度上增加银行的脆弱性。中国银行体系的脆弱性除了具有共性之外，还具有转轨经济国家的独特成因。其中，突出的一点就是中国在转轨时期的体制变革造成了银行、企业以及经济其他方面发展的不协调，使得中国银行不良资产数目巨大，资产质量低下，竞争力不高。因此，在分析中国银行脆弱性成因时，本文重点从体制转轨角度进行了分析，并对法律、监管和经济增长等外部因素的影响也做了论述。
本文采用理论和实际相结合的方法，借鉴已有的研究成果，分四个部分对中国银行体系的脆弱性展开论述。首先介绍了银行体系脆弱性的有关概念，并回顾了国内外学者的研究成果；然后立足于一般的制度环境，分别从不同角度进行了系统的理论分析；在此基础上，具体分析了中国银行体系脆弱性的问题；最后根据上述的分析，结合中国目前的实际情况，从三个方面提出了如何化解中国银行体系脆弱性的建议。
In China, the bank system is the core of the financial system, the stability of which is very important for the continuously development of the China’s economy. With China’s entry into WTO, the bank system will face more and more competition pressure, so, how to solve those problems that exist in the bank system is urgent at present. This paper intends to learn from a serious of papers about the bank fragility and analyze the bank system fragility in China.
From many researches of the bank system fragility, a conclusion is draw that, the bank fragility is endogenous, while the exogenous factors can also add to the bank fragility. In addition to the common causes of the fragility, Chinese bank system has its own specific causes. The prominent one is that, the transformation of the economic system made the disequilibria development among banks, enterprises, and other economic units, which then cause the huge amount of the non-performing loan in the bank, the low quality of the bank’s assets, the low ability of the bank’s competition. Because of that, this paper pays more attention to the analyzing of the effects of the transformation; furthermore, discuss other factors like the effects of the law, the supervision and the economic development fluctuation. At last, this paper makes suggestions of how to solve the bank system fragility based on the above analyzing.
This paper discusses China’s bank system fragility theoretically and empirically with the existing study results in four parts. The first part is the instruction, in which are the related definitions of the bank fragility and the review of former researches at home and abroad. The second part’s discussions are from the point of view of bank, enterprises and the Information Economics on the common condition. The third part investigates the China’s bank system fragility. The last part of this paper makes three suggestions about how to eliminate China’s bank system fragility.
从众多相关论著中可以得出结论，银行具有内在的脆弱性，而外在的因素也会在一定程度上增加银行的脆弱性。中国银行体系的脆弱性除了具有共性之外，还具有转轨经济国家的独特成因。其中，突出的一点就是中国在转轨时期的体制变革造成了银行、企业以及经济其他方面发展的不协调，使得中国银行不良资产数目巨大，资产质量低下，竞争力不高。因此，在分析中国银行脆弱性成因时，本文重点从体制转轨角度进行了分析，并对法律、监管和经济增长等外部因素的影响也做了论述。
本文采用理论和实际相结合的方法，借鉴已有的研究成果，分四个部分对中国银行体系的脆弱性展开论述。首先介绍了银行体系脆弱性的有关概念，并回顾了国内外学者的研究成果；然后立足于一般的制度环境，分别从不同角度进行了系统的理论分析；在此基础上，具体分析了中国银行体系脆弱性的问题；最后根据上述的分析，结合中国目前的实际情况，从三个方面提出了如何化解中国银行体系脆弱性的建议。
In China, the bank system is the core of the financial system, the stability of which is very important for the continuously development of the China’s economy. With China’s entry into WTO, the bank system will face more and more competition pressure, so, how to solve those problems that exist in the bank system is urgent at present. This paper intends to learn from a serious of papers about the bank fragility and analyze the bank system fragility in China.
From many researches of the bank system fragility, a conclusion is draw that, the bank fragility is endogenous, while the exogenous factors can also add to the bank fragility. In addition to the common causes of the fragility, Chinese bank system has its own specific causes. The prominent one is that, the transformation of the economic system made the disequilibria development among banks, enterprises, and other economic units, which then cause the huge amount of the non-performing loan in the bank, the low quality of the bank’s assets, the low ability of the bank’s competition. Because of that, this paper pays more attention to the analyzing of the effects of the transformation; furthermore, discuss other factors like the effects of the law, the supervision and the economic development fluctuation. At last, this paper makes suggestions of how to solve the bank system fragility based on the above analyzing.
This paper discusses China’s bank system fragility theoretically and empirically with the existing study results in four parts. The first part is the instruction, in which are the related definitions of the bank fragility and the review of former researches at home and abroad. The second part’s discussions are from the point of view of bank, enterprises and the Information Economics on the common condition. The third part investigates the China’s bank system fragility. The last part of this paper makes three suggestions about how to eliminate China’s bank system fragility.
引文
彼得·S·罗斯 商业银行管理 经济科学出版社 1999
卡尔－约翰·林捷瑞恩、吉连·加西亚、马修·I·萨尔 银行稳健经营与宏观经济政策 中国金融出版社 国际货币基金组织 1997
陈学彬 当代金融危机的形成、扩散与防范机制研究 上海财经大学出版社 2001.12
韩俊 银行体系稳定性研究 中国金融出版社 2000.7
胡祖六 东亚的银行体系与金融危机 国际经济评论 1998年Z3期
黄金老 金融自由化于金融脆弱性 中国城市出版社 2001.9
江春泽《“九五”通胀因素分析与对策研究》 经济管理出版社 1996年
江其务 国有银企改革协调发展与债务重组 中国经济出版社 1998
林平 银行危机监管论 中国金融出版社 2000.11
刘澄 庞继英 商业银行不良资产处置模式选择 海南金融 2004.1
刘士余 银行危机与金融安全网的设计 经济科学出版社 2003.9
刘立峰 宏观金融风险－理论·历史与现实 中国发展出版社 2000.1
刘树成 论中国经济周期波动的新阶段 经济研究 1996.11
刘卫江 中国银行体系脆弱性问题的实证研究 管理世界 2002.7
陆前进 杨槐 开放经济下宏观金融风险管理 上海财经大学出版社 2002.4
马克思 《马克思恩格斯全集》第26卷（Ⅱ） 人民出版社 1973
米什金 货币金融学 中国人民大学 1998
R·科斯、A·阿尔钦、D·诺斯 财产权力与制度变迁 上海三联书店 上海人民出版社 1994
青木昌彦 钱颖一 转轨经济中的治理结构：内部人控制和银行的作用 中国经济出版社 1995
邵英昕 银行业稳健经营与宏观经济政策 世界经济 1999.5
斯蒂格利茨 经济学 中国人民大学出版社 1997
斯蒂格利茨 金融稳健和亚洲可持续发展 《经济体制比较》 1998.3
宋清华 银行危机论 经济科学出版社 2000.11
王继康 再造中国银企关系——论银行债权约束与国有企业治理 广东人民出版社2000.5
王一林 转轨时期中国商业银行风险研究 中国社会科学出版社 2001.1
王德祥 经济全球化条件下的世界金融危机研究 武汉大学出版社 2002.9
伍志文 金融脆弱性:理论及基于中国的经验分析 经济评论 2003 2
约翰·伊特韦尔 等 新帕尔格雷夫经济学辞典 经济科学出版社 1992
张荔 论过度的金融自由化对金融体系脆弱性的助推作用 经济评论 2001.1
张杰 中国金融制度的结构与变迁 山西经济出版社 1998
张杰 经济变迁中的金融中介与国有银行 中国人民大学出版社 2003.6
Gerard Caprio,Jr. William C. Hunter，George G. Kaufman，Danny M. Leipziger 张青松 等 译银行危机的防范：近期全球银行倒闭风潮的教训 中国财政经济出版社 1999.11
Daniel C. Hardy and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1998, “Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Was Asia Different？“IMF Working Paper 91.
Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries" IMF Staff Papers Vol.45.No.l，March，1998.
Demirguc-Kunt, Asli and Detragiache, Enrica，" Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility". IMF Working Paper WP/98/83，June.1998.
Diamond, Douglas W, and Dybvig Philip H “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity”, J, Polite, Econ. June 1983
Fisher, Irving, "The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions," Econometrica 1 (October, 1933), 337-357.
Hausmann, Ricardo and Michael Goavin, 1995, "Macroeconomic volatility in Latin America: causes, consequences, and policies to assure stability", Washington; Inter-American Development Bank, July
Honohan, Patrick "Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Countries: Diagnosis and Prediction" Working Paper No. 39. Basle: Bank for International Settlements, January 1997
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Andrew Weiss:"Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information" The American Economic Review, June 1981, pp393-410
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Andrew Weiss: "Banks as Social Accountants and Screening Devices for the Allocation of Credit" Greek Economic Review, 12, Supplement Autumn 1990, 85-118
Kregel J. A. "Margins of Safety and Weight of the Argument in Generating Financial Fragility".
Krugman, P. "Bubble, Boom, Crash: Theoretical Notes on Asia's Crisis, mimeo. 1998
McKinnon and Huw Pill "International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks" (1998)
Minsky Hyman，“The financial fragility hypothesis: Capitalist Process and the behavior of the Economy"，in Financial Crisis，ed. Charles P. Kindlberger and Jean一Pierre Laffargue. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1982.
Mishkin, F. S. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A History Perspective" in R.G. Hubbard, ed. Financial Markets and Financial Crises Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 1991
Mishkin, F.S. (1996) "Understanding Financial Crisis: A Developing Country Perspective," in Michael Bruno and Boris Pleskovic, eds, Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1996 (World Bank: Washington D.C.): 29-62.
卡尔－约翰·林捷瑞恩、吉连·加西亚、马修·I·萨尔 银行稳健经营与宏观经济政策 中国金融出版社 国际货币基金组织 1997
陈学彬 当代金融危机的形成、扩散与防范机制研究 上海财经大学出版社 2001.12
韩俊 银行体系稳定性研究 中国金融出版社 2000.7
胡祖六 东亚的银行体系与金融危机 国际经济评论 1998年Z3期
黄金老 金融自由化于金融脆弱性 中国城市出版社 2001.9
江春泽《“九五”通胀因素分析与对策研究》 经济管理出版社 1996年
江其务 国有银企改革协调发展与债务重组 中国经济出版社 1998
林平 银行危机监管论 中国金融出版社 2000.11
刘澄 庞继英 商业银行不良资产处置模式选择 海南金融 2004.1
刘士余 银行危机与金融安全网的设计 经济科学出版社 2003.9
刘立峰 宏观金融风险－理论·历史与现实 中国发展出版社 2000.1
刘树成 论中国经济周期波动的新阶段 经济研究 1996.11
刘卫江 中国银行体系脆弱性问题的实证研究 管理世界 2002.7
陆前进 杨槐 开放经济下宏观金融风险管理 上海财经大学出版社 2002.4
马克思 《马克思恩格斯全集》第26卷（Ⅱ） 人民出版社 1973
米什金 货币金融学 中国人民大学 1998
R·科斯、A·阿尔钦、D·诺斯 财产权力与制度变迁 上海三联书店 上海人民出版社 1994
青木昌彦 钱颖一 转轨经济中的治理结构：内部人控制和银行的作用 中国经济出版社 1995
邵英昕 银行业稳健经营与宏观经济政策 世界经济 1999.5
斯蒂格利茨 经济学 中国人民大学出版社 1997
斯蒂格利茨 金融稳健和亚洲可持续发展 《经济体制比较》 1998.3
宋清华 银行危机论 经济科学出版社 2000.11
王继康 再造中国银企关系——论银行债权约束与国有企业治理 广东人民出版社2000.5
王一林 转轨时期中国商业银行风险研究 中国社会科学出版社 2001.1
王德祥 经济全球化条件下的世界金融危机研究 武汉大学出版社 2002.9
伍志文 金融脆弱性:理论及基于中国的经验分析 经济评论 2003 2
约翰·伊特韦尔 等 新帕尔格雷夫经济学辞典 经济科学出版社 1992
张荔 论过度的金融自由化对金融体系脆弱性的助推作用 经济评论 2001.1
张杰 中国金融制度的结构与变迁 山西经济出版社 1998
张杰 经济变迁中的金融中介与国有银行 中国人民大学出版社 2003.6
Gerard Caprio,Jr. William C. Hunter，George G. Kaufman，Danny M. Leipziger 张青松 等 译银行危机的防范：近期全球银行倒闭风潮的教训 中国财政经济出版社 1999.11
Daniel C. Hardy and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1998, “Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Was Asia Different？“IMF Working Paper 91.
Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries" IMF Staff Papers Vol.45.No.l，March，1998.
Demirguc-Kunt, Asli and Detragiache, Enrica，" Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility". IMF Working Paper WP/98/83，June.1998.
Diamond, Douglas W, and Dybvig Philip H “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity”, J, Polite, Econ. June 1983
Fisher, Irving, "The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions," Econometrica 1 (October, 1933), 337-357.
Hausmann, Ricardo and Michael Goavin, 1995, "Macroeconomic volatility in Latin America: causes, consequences, and policies to assure stability", Washington; Inter-American Development Bank, July
Honohan, Patrick "Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Countries: Diagnosis and Prediction" Working Paper No. 39. Basle: Bank for International Settlements, January 1997
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Andrew Weiss:"Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information" The American Economic Review, June 1981, pp393-410
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Andrew Weiss: "Banks as Social Accountants and Screening Devices for the Allocation of Credit" Greek Economic Review, 12, Supplement Autumn 1990, 85-118
Kregel J. A. "Margins of Safety and Weight of the Argument in Generating Financial Fragility".
Krugman, P. "Bubble, Boom, Crash: Theoretical Notes on Asia's Crisis, mimeo. 1998
McKinnon and Huw Pill "International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks" (1998)
Minsky Hyman，“The financial fragility hypothesis: Capitalist Process and the behavior of the Economy"，in Financial Crisis，ed. Charles P. Kindlberger and Jean一Pierre Laffargue. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1982.
Mishkin, F. S. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A History Perspective" in R.G. Hubbard, ed. Financial Markets and Financial Crises Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 1991
Mishkin, F.S. (1996) "Understanding Financial Crisis: A Developing Country Perspective," in Michael Bruno and Boris Pleskovic, eds, Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1996 (World Bank: Washington D.C.): 29-62.
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