财产保险防灾减损决策支持系统的设计与实现
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摘要
中国是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一，在灾害面前财产保险公司面临着巨额赔付，为了防止自然灾害和减少自然灾害对财产保险造成的损失，本研究结合3S技术和决策支持系统理论进行了财产保险防灾减损决策支持系统的设计与实现。
论文对DSS及其在财产保险领域和灾害防范领域的应用与发展现状做了一定的调研工作，论文应用3S技术和Web技术，以三角式决策支持系统结构为框架，探讨了财产保险防灾减损决策支持系统的总体结构设计。
论文对决策支持系统中的数据管理部分进行了设计和实现，讲述了决策支持系统中模型管理部分的设计与实现。这为决策支持和界面设计打下了基础。
论文对决策支持系统的关键部分——决策支持功能进行了设计与实现。针对洪涝灾害，系统从常规防洪涝预案和临灾快速反应方案两个方面对防灾减损工作提供了决策支持。
论文对决策支持系统的界面设计工作进行了阐述。作为三角式决策支持系统，对话管理部分即交互界面的设计被认为是DSS成败的重要因素，本文从保险分析、灾害分析及决策支持、以及系统其他功能三个角度对决策支持系统的界面设计工作进行了阐述。
Compared with many countries all over the world, China suffers from a wider range of natural disasters, which confront property insurance companies with a vast number of losses. With the help of 3S technology and DSS theory, this research has managed to set up a decision support system for disaster prevention and loss reduction in order to prevent and reduce the losses in property insurance caused by natural disasters.
The thesis not only makes an intensive study of DSS theory and its development, but also makes investigates into DSS application to the field of disaster prevention and property insurance. With 3S technology and Web technology as the theoretical basis, triangular decision support system as the framework, the research provides an insight into the possibilities of constructing a comprehensive decision support system for disaster prevention and loss reduction in property insurance.
The thesis designs and puts into effect the data management of the decision system. And it also deals with the design and realization of model management. Both efforts lay foundations for decision support and interface design.
The thesis designs and puts into effect the decision support function that is the key component of DSS. Concentrated on flood disaster, the system provides decision support for disaster prevention in the light of conventional flood prevention method as well as in the aspect of first response scheme.
The thesis also makes out the interface design of DSS. The design of the interactive management or interface is considered as the vital factor for the successful operation of DSS. The thesis discusses the interface design through an analysis of insurance, disaster, decision support and other system function.
论文对DSS及其在财产保险领域和灾害防范领域的应用与发展现状做了一定的调研工作，论文应用3S技术和Web技术，以三角式决策支持系统结构为框架，探讨了财产保险防灾减损决策支持系统的总体结构设计。
论文对决策支持系统中的数据管理部分进行了设计和实现，讲述了决策支持系统中模型管理部分的设计与实现。这为决策支持和界面设计打下了基础。
论文对决策支持系统的关键部分——决策支持功能进行了设计与实现。针对洪涝灾害，系统从常规防洪涝预案和临灾快速反应方案两个方面对防灾减损工作提供了决策支持。
论文对决策支持系统的界面设计工作进行了阐述。作为三角式决策支持系统，对话管理部分即交互界面的设计被认为是DSS成败的重要因素，本文从保险分析、灾害分析及决策支持、以及系统其他功能三个角度对决策支持系统的界面设计工作进行了阐述。
Compared with many countries all over the world, China suffers from a wider range of natural disasters, which confront property insurance companies with a vast number of losses. With the help of 3S technology and DSS theory, this research has managed to set up a decision support system for disaster prevention and loss reduction in order to prevent and reduce the losses in property insurance caused by natural disasters.
The thesis not only makes an intensive study of DSS theory and its development, but also makes investigates into DSS application to the field of disaster prevention and property insurance. With 3S technology and Web technology as the theoretical basis, triangular decision support system as the framework, the research provides an insight into the possibilities of constructing a comprehensive decision support system for disaster prevention and loss reduction in property insurance.
The thesis designs and puts into effect the data management of the decision system. And it also deals with the design and realization of model management. Both efforts lay foundations for decision support and interface design.
The thesis designs and puts into effect the decision support function that is the key component of DSS. Concentrated on flood disaster, the system provides decision support for disaster prevention in the light of conventional flood prevention method as well as in the aspect of first response scheme.
The thesis also makes out the interface design of DSS. The design of the interactive management or interface is considered as the vital factor for the successful operation of DSS. The thesis discusses the interface design through an analysis of insurance, disaster, decision support and other system function.
引文
[1] Keen, Peter G. W., and Michael S. Scott Morton. Decision Support Systems: An Organizational Perspective. Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass. (1978).
[2] Sprague, Ralph H. Jr. "A Framework for the Development of Decision Support Systems," MIS Quarterly 4, no.4 (December 1980), p.1.
[3] Efrem G. Mallach. Decision Support and Data Warehouse Systems,. 北京：电子工业出版社, 2001
[4] Amari S I. A Theory of Adaptive Pattern Classification. IEEE Trans on Electronic Com-puters, 1 967, EC- 16:299～307
[5] Rumelhart D E, etal. Learning Internal Representations by Error Propagation. In:Paral-lel Distributed Processing. Vol. 1 , Cambridge, MA:MLT Press, 1986, 318～362
[6] Martin R D et al, Spectral reflectance patterns of flooded rice, PE$RS, 1986,52:1885-1890
[7] Patal N K et al, Spectral response of rice crop and its relation to yield attributes. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 1985,(6):657-664
[8] Zhao R J. The Xinanjiang model applied in China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1992,371-381.
[9] 喻光明，王朝南，钟儒钢，邹尚辉，张金霞，赵俊华，基于DEM的洪涝灾害信息提取和损失估算，国土资源遥感，1996，Mar．No．1
[10] 葛小平，徐有鹏，张琪，张立峰，GIS支持下的洪水淹没范围模拟，水科学进展，july.,2002，Vol．13，No．4
[11] 傅湘，纪昌明，洪灾损失评估指标的研究，水科学进展，2000，Vol．11，No．4
[12] 潘耀忠，史培军，刘慧平，黄崇福，刘新立，周武光，延昊，面向保险业的大面积自然灾害防灾核损信息系统研究，自然灾害学报，1997，Vol．6，No．1
[13] 武靖源，韩文秀，徐杨，周年生．洪灾经济损失评估模型研究——(Ⅰ)直接经济损失评估，系统工程理论与实践，1998．11
[14] 郑晓阳，胡传廉，上海市防汛决策支持系统设计，水利水电科学进展，2003，
Vol．23，No．1
[15] 黄照强，“3S”的集成与一体化数据结构分析，地质与勘探，2001，Vol．37，No．5
[16] 毛政元，李霖，“3S”集成及其应用，华中师范大学学报(自然科学版)，2002，Vol．36，No．3
[17] Steve Lackow, Using Natural World Features In A Business GIS,1997,http://gis.esri.com/library/userconf/proc97/proc97/to500/pap465/p465.htm
[18] Ole M.Meyer, A Insurance Simulation Model, Conference proceedings on APL 90,1990, ACM,
[19] 武靖源，韩文秀，徐杨，周年生。洪灾经济损失评估模型研究——(Ⅱ)间接经济损失评估，系统工程理论与实践，1998．12
[20] 王艳艳，陆吉康，郑晓阳，凌志，上海市洪涝灾害损失评估系统的开发，灾害学，2001．6，Vol．16，No2．
[21] 高洪深，决策支持系统(DSS)理论·方法·案例(第二版)，北京：清华大学出版社，广西科学技术出版社，2000。
[2] Sprague, Ralph H. Jr. "A Framework for the Development of Decision Support Systems," MIS Quarterly 4, no.4 (December 1980), p.1.
[3] Efrem G. Mallach. Decision Support and Data Warehouse Systems,. 北京：电子工业出版社, 2001
[4] Amari S I. A Theory of Adaptive Pattern Classification. IEEE Trans on Electronic Com-puters, 1 967, EC- 16:299～307
[5] Rumelhart D E, etal. Learning Internal Representations by Error Propagation. In:Paral-lel Distributed Processing. Vol. 1 , Cambridge, MA:MLT Press, 1986, 318～362
[6] Martin R D et al, Spectral reflectance patterns of flooded rice, PE$RS, 1986,52:1885-1890
[7] Patal N K et al, Spectral response of rice crop and its relation to yield attributes. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 1985,(6):657-664
[8] Zhao R J. The Xinanjiang model applied in China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1992,371-381.
[9] 喻光明，王朝南，钟儒钢，邹尚辉，张金霞，赵俊华，基于DEM的洪涝灾害信息提取和损失估算，国土资源遥感，1996，Mar．No．1
[10] 葛小平，徐有鹏，张琪，张立峰，GIS支持下的洪水淹没范围模拟，水科学进展，july.,2002，Vol．13，No．4
[11] 傅湘，纪昌明，洪灾损失评估指标的研究，水科学进展，2000，Vol．11，No．4
[12] 潘耀忠，史培军，刘慧平，黄崇福，刘新立，周武光，延昊，面向保险业的大面积自然灾害防灾核损信息系统研究，自然灾害学报，1997，Vol．6，No．1
[13] 武靖源，韩文秀，徐杨，周年生．洪灾经济损失评估模型研究——(Ⅰ)直接经济损失评估，系统工程理论与实践，1998．11
[14] 郑晓阳，胡传廉，上海市防汛决策支持系统设计，水利水电科学进展，2003，
Vol．23，No．1
[15] 黄照强，“3S”的集成与一体化数据结构分析，地质与勘探，2001，Vol．37，No．5
[16] 毛政元，李霖，“3S”集成及其应用，华中师范大学学报(自然科学版)，2002，Vol．36，No．3
[17] Steve Lackow, Using Natural World Features In A Business GIS,1997,http://gis.esri.com/library/userconf/proc97/proc97/to500/pap465/p465.htm
[18] Ole M.Meyer, A Insurance Simulation Model, Conference proceedings on APL 90,1990, ACM,
[19] 武靖源，韩文秀，徐杨，周年生。洪灾经济损失评估模型研究——(Ⅱ)间接经济损失评估，系统工程理论与实践，1998．12
[20] 王艳艳，陆吉康，郑晓阳，凌志，上海市洪涝灾害损失评估系统的开发，灾害学，2001．6，Vol．16，No2．
[21] 高洪深，决策支持系统(DSS)理论·方法·案例(第二版)，北京：清华大学出版社，广西科学技术出版社，2000。
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