洪水风险分析理论与方法研究
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摘要
我国是世界洪水灾害最为严重的国家之一，防洪减灾一直是国家的基本战略。如何在洪水风险中谋求生存和发展是风险管理中长期存在的问题，随着经济社会的进步，这一问题将越来越突出。了解洪水风险的基本特性，研究分析其内在规律，将大大提高防洪减灾的成效，最终实现人与洪水和谐共处的战略目标。
本文首先论述了我国防洪减灾的基本形势、洪水灾害的基本特点、江河防洪标准及其评价。其次分析了洪水风险的基本属性、分类以及洪水风险分析的基本内涵和方法。然后提出洪水风险图制作的方法和步骤。在理论分析的基础上，结合岷江成都平原洪水风险分析的具体研究项目，运用水灾频率分析方法进行了洪水风险区划的研究。最后对洪水风险管理的本质进行了论述，进而提出我国防洪减灾的战略思想。
China is one of countries that suffer severe flood disaster. Flood defense and disaster mitigation have been nation's basic strategy. How to develop in face of flood risk becomes more and more concerned as society evolves. The efficiency of flood defense will be greatly improved by study of the basic characteristics and principle of flood risk, which helps realize the aim of people and flood coexist harmoniously.
This article firstly explains the state of flood control in China, basic characteristics of flood, criterion and evaluation of river flood defense. Secondly, it describes the property and classification of flood risk, connotation and method of flood risk analysis. Then the evaluation criterion system of flood risk analysis is introduced. After that figure out the method and details of flood risk map making system. Based on the theoretic method, Minjiang Plain is divided into regions by flood risk using the method of hazard frequency analysis is developed. In the end of this article, the essence of flood risk management and the strategic thinking of flood defense in China are described.
本文首先论述了我国防洪减灾的基本形势、洪水灾害的基本特点、江河防洪标准及其评价。其次分析了洪水风险的基本属性、分类以及洪水风险分析的基本内涵和方法。然后提出洪水风险图制作的方法和步骤。在理论分析的基础上，结合岷江成都平原洪水风险分析的具体研究项目，运用水灾频率分析方法进行了洪水风险区划的研究。最后对洪水风险管理的本质进行了论述，进而提出我国防洪减灾的战略思想。
China is one of countries that suffer severe flood disaster. Flood defense and disaster mitigation have been nation's basic strategy. How to develop in face of flood risk becomes more and more concerned as society evolves. The efficiency of flood defense will be greatly improved by study of the basic characteristics and principle of flood risk, which helps realize the aim of people and flood coexist harmoniously.
This article firstly explains the state of flood control in China, basic characteristics of flood, criterion and evaluation of river flood defense. Secondly, it describes the property and classification of flood risk, connotation and method of flood risk analysis. Then the evaluation criterion system of flood risk analysis is introduced. After that figure out the method and details of flood risk map making system. Based on the theoretic method, Minjiang Plain is divided into regions by flood risk using the method of hazard frequency analysis is developed. In the end of this article, the essence of flood risk management and the strategic thinking of flood defense in China are described.
引文
[1] 唐健译．减低项目风险[M](Ralph L．Kliem & Irwin S．Ludin：Reducing Project Risk)，北京：宇航出版社，1999年
[2] 胡鞍钢．中国发展前景[M]，杭州：浙江人民出版社，1999年
[3] 袁汝华、金松．太湖流域防洪体系中的洪水保险分析[J]．河海大学学报，2002年第1期
[4] 袁汝华．防洪安全建设中的移民建镇布点方法研究与应用[J]．水科学进展，2002年第6期
[5] 程晓陶、万群志等．北江大堤保护范围洪水风险图试点研究[R]，北京，1999年7月
[6] 邓坚、万群志等．蓄滞洪区调研报告[R]．水利系统优秀调研报告，北京，2001年10月
[7] 万群志．防汛经费使用管理改革的对策研究[J]．中国水利，2002年第三期
[8] 万群志．关于推进洪水保险的设想[J]．水利建设与管理，2002年第一期
[9] 万群志．关于建立灾情评估系统的分析和设计思路[J]．治淮，2002年第二期
[10] 谭徐明、马健明、万群志等．岷江成都平原洪水风险分析暨堤防管理信息系统集成研究[R]，北京，2000年5月
[11] 程晓陶、万群志等．荆江分洪区洪水风险管理系统[R]，北京，1999年7月
[12] 杜一．灾害与经济[J]．中国减灾1997．7(2)
[13] 李宪文．关于我国实施洪水灾害保险制度的几点意见[J]．中国减灾1992．2(4)．
[14] 水利部南京水文水资源研究所等．中国水旱灾害[M]．中国水利水电出版社，1997年
[15] 国家计委、水利部21世纪初水利发展战略研究课题组：21世纪初中国水利发展战略研究，1999年12月。
[16] 刘树坤，国外防洪减灾发展趋势分析[J]，水利水电科技进展，2000，20(1)。
[17] 徐乾清，对未来防洪减灾形势和对策的一些思考[J]，水科学进展，1999，10(3)。
[18] 谭徐明等译．美国防洪减灾总报告及研究规划[M]．中国科学技术出版社1997 北京．
[19] 中国工程院《中国可持续发展水资源战略研究》项目组：21世纪中国防洪减灾对策研究，1999年10月。
[20] 刘树坤：二十一世纪的中国水问题，水利科技，1999年第1期。
[21] 周魁一：人·自然·灾害——洪水灾害与减灾社会化的历史启示，中国水利水电科学研究院学报，1998年2期。
[22] 周魁一： 试析洪水灾害增长的社会因素[J]．自然灾害学报1994．3(1)
[23] 魏一鸣 金菊良．洪水灾害研究进展．大自然探索[J]．1998 17(64)．
[24] 何建邦 田国良．中国重大自然灾害监测与评估信息系统的建设与作用[J]．自然灾害学报 1996 5 3．
[25] 赵咸榕．黄河流域洪水风险图的分析与制作[J] 人民黄河1998 20(7)．
[26] 杨小凯．经济学原理[M]．中国社会科学出版社1998 北京．
[27] 劳埃德．雷诺兹．微观经济学分析和政策[M]．商务印书馆1994 北京．
[28] 刘茂山 江生忠．保险学原理[M]．南开大学出版社1998天津．
[29] Blaikie, P. T. Cannon, I. Davis and B. Wisner. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People' s Vulnerability and Disasters [M]. Routledge, London, 1994.
[30] Kasperson J. X. ,R. E. Kasperson and B. L. Turner Ⅱ. Regions at Risk: Comparisions of Threatened Environments [M], United States University Press, Tokyo, New York, Paris, 1995.
[31] EL-Sabh, M. I. And T. S. Murty. Natural and Man-made Hazards [M]. D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland, 1988.
[32] Gerhard Berz: Flood Disasters: Lessons from the Past--Worries for the Future, Water and Maritime Engineering, Vol. 142, No.1, March 2000.
[33] A. J. Saul. Floods and Flood Management [M]. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992.
[34] Rossi, G. N. Harmancioglu and V. Yevjevich. Coping With Floods [M]. Kluwer Academic Publishers ,Dordrecht /Boston/London, 1994.
[35] Sorkin, Alan L. Economic Aspects of Natural Hazards [M]. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data, 1982.
[36] Cater, W. N. Disaster Management: A Disaster Manager' s Handbook [M]. Manila: ADB, 1991.
[37] Burton, I, R. W. Katers and G.F. White. The Environment as Hazard [M]. Second Edition, The Guilford Press , New York, 1993.
[38] Goovaerts, M. J. Insurance Premiums: Theory and Applications[M]. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1984.
[39] Lencsis, Peter M. Insurance Regulation In The United States: An Overview for Business and Government[M]. Wetport, Corm, Quorum, 1997.
[40] Gustavson, Sandra G. Insurance, Risk Management, and Public Policy: Essays in Memory of Rebert Ⅰ. [M]. Mehr., Boston, Kluwer Academic Publisher, 1994.
[41] Kenedy, David W. Insurance: What do you need? How Much Is Enough? [M]. ETucson, Ariz., Knight-Ridder Pr., 1987.
[42] White Gilbert F. and J. Eugene. Assessment of Research on Natural Hazards[M]. Cambridge, Massachusetts, MIT Press, 1975.
[43] White Gilbert F., Strategies of American Water Management[M], Ann Arbor, University of Michigan, 1969.
[44] Kunreuther, Howard, et al. Disaster Insurance Protection[M]. New York, John Wiley, 1978.
[45] S. Travis Pritchett, Joan T. Schmit, Helen I Doerpinghaus and James L. Athearn. Seventh Edition, Risk Management and Insurance[M]. West Publishing Company, 1996.
[46] A. Z. Keller, and A. F. Al-Madhari, Risk Management and Disasters, Disaster Prevention and Management[J], 1996, 5(5), 19-22.
[47] Gupta V K, Waymire E. Multiscaling properties of spatial rainfall and river flow distributions [J] . J. Geophys. Res., 1990; 95(D3): 1999-2009.
[48] Gupta V K, Mesa O J, Dawdy D R. Multiscaling theory of flood peaks: regional quantile analysis [J] . Water Resour. Res., 1994; 30(12): 3405-3421.
[49] Menabbde M, Seed A, Pegram G. A simple scaling model for extreme rainfall [J] . Water Resource. Res., 1999; 35(1): 335-339.
[50] Mandelbrot B B. The fractal geometry of nature [M]. NewYork: Freeman, 1983:248-255
[51] Barton. I.J and Bathols, J.M. Monitoring Flood with AVARR, Remote Sensing of Environment, 1989, 30 (1)
[52] Redfietd G W. Ecological research for aquatic science and environmental restoration in South Florida [J] . Ecological Applications, 2000, 10(4): 900-1005.
[2] 胡鞍钢．中国发展前景[M]，杭州：浙江人民出版社，1999年
[3] 袁汝华、金松．太湖流域防洪体系中的洪水保险分析[J]．河海大学学报，2002年第1期
[4] 袁汝华．防洪安全建设中的移民建镇布点方法研究与应用[J]．水科学进展，2002年第6期
[5] 程晓陶、万群志等．北江大堤保护范围洪水风险图试点研究[R]，北京，1999年7月
[6] 邓坚、万群志等．蓄滞洪区调研报告[R]．水利系统优秀调研报告，北京，2001年10月
[7] 万群志．防汛经费使用管理改革的对策研究[J]．中国水利，2002年第三期
[8] 万群志．关于推进洪水保险的设想[J]．水利建设与管理，2002年第一期
[9] 万群志．关于建立灾情评估系统的分析和设计思路[J]．治淮，2002年第二期
[10] 谭徐明、马健明、万群志等．岷江成都平原洪水风险分析暨堤防管理信息系统集成研究[R]，北京，2000年5月
[11] 程晓陶、万群志等．荆江分洪区洪水风险管理系统[R]，北京，1999年7月
[12] 杜一．灾害与经济[J]．中国减灾1997．7(2)
[13] 李宪文．关于我国实施洪水灾害保险制度的几点意见[J]．中国减灾1992．2(4)．
[14] 水利部南京水文水资源研究所等．中国水旱灾害[M]．中国水利水电出版社，1997年
[15] 国家计委、水利部21世纪初水利发展战略研究课题组：21世纪初中国水利发展战略研究，1999年12月。
[16] 刘树坤，国外防洪减灾发展趋势分析[J]，水利水电科技进展，2000，20(1)。
[17] 徐乾清，对未来防洪减灾形势和对策的一些思考[J]，水科学进展，1999，10(3)。
[18] 谭徐明等译．美国防洪减灾总报告及研究规划[M]．中国科学技术出版社1997 北京．
[19] 中国工程院《中国可持续发展水资源战略研究》项目组：21世纪中国防洪减灾对策研究，1999年10月。
[20] 刘树坤：二十一世纪的中国水问题，水利科技，1999年第1期。
[21] 周魁一：人·自然·灾害——洪水灾害与减灾社会化的历史启示，中国水利水电科学研究院学报，1998年2期。
[22] 周魁一： 试析洪水灾害增长的社会因素[J]．自然灾害学报1994．3(1)
[23] 魏一鸣 金菊良．洪水灾害研究进展．大自然探索[J]．1998 17(64)．
[24] 何建邦 田国良．中国重大自然灾害监测与评估信息系统的建设与作用[J]．自然灾害学报 1996 5 3．
[25] 赵咸榕．黄河流域洪水风险图的分析与制作[J] 人民黄河1998 20(7)．
[26] 杨小凯．经济学原理[M]．中国社会科学出版社1998 北京．
[27] 劳埃德．雷诺兹．微观经济学分析和政策[M]．商务印书馆1994 北京．
[28] 刘茂山 江生忠．保险学原理[M]．南开大学出版社1998天津．
[29] Blaikie, P. T. Cannon, I. Davis and B. Wisner. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People' s Vulnerability and Disasters [M]. Routledge, London, 1994.
[30] Kasperson J. X. ,R. E. Kasperson and B. L. Turner Ⅱ. Regions at Risk: Comparisions of Threatened Environments [M], United States University Press, Tokyo, New York, Paris, 1995.
[31] EL-Sabh, M. I. And T. S. Murty. Natural and Man-made Hazards [M]. D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland, 1988.
[32] Gerhard Berz: Flood Disasters: Lessons from the Past--Worries for the Future, Water and Maritime Engineering, Vol. 142, No.1, March 2000.
[33] A. J. Saul. Floods and Flood Management [M]. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992.
[34] Rossi, G. N. Harmancioglu and V. Yevjevich. Coping With Floods [M]. Kluwer Academic Publishers ,Dordrecht /Boston/London, 1994.
[35] Sorkin, Alan L. Economic Aspects of Natural Hazards [M]. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data, 1982.
[36] Cater, W. N. Disaster Management: A Disaster Manager' s Handbook [M]. Manila: ADB, 1991.
[37] Burton, I, R. W. Katers and G.F. White. The Environment as Hazard [M]. Second Edition, The Guilford Press , New York, 1993.
[38] Goovaerts, M. J. Insurance Premiums: Theory and Applications[M]. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1984.
[39] Lencsis, Peter M. Insurance Regulation In The United States: An Overview for Business and Government[M]. Wetport, Corm, Quorum, 1997.
[40] Gustavson, Sandra G. Insurance, Risk Management, and Public Policy: Essays in Memory of Rebert Ⅰ. [M]. Mehr., Boston, Kluwer Academic Publisher, 1994.
[41] Kenedy, David W. Insurance: What do you need? How Much Is Enough? [M]. ETucson, Ariz., Knight-Ridder Pr., 1987.
[42] White Gilbert F. and J. Eugene. Assessment of Research on Natural Hazards[M]. Cambridge, Massachusetts, MIT Press, 1975.
[43] White Gilbert F., Strategies of American Water Management[M], Ann Arbor, University of Michigan, 1969.
[44] Kunreuther, Howard, et al. Disaster Insurance Protection[M]. New York, John Wiley, 1978.
[45] S. Travis Pritchett, Joan T. Schmit, Helen I Doerpinghaus and James L. Athearn. Seventh Edition, Risk Management and Insurance[M]. West Publishing Company, 1996.
[46] A. Z. Keller, and A. F. Al-Madhari, Risk Management and Disasters, Disaster Prevention and Management[J], 1996, 5(5), 19-22.
[47] Gupta V K, Waymire E. Multiscaling properties of spatial rainfall and river flow distributions [J] . J. Geophys. Res., 1990; 95(D3): 1999-2009.
[48] Gupta V K, Mesa O J, Dawdy D R. Multiscaling theory of flood peaks: regional quantile analysis [J] . Water Resour. Res., 1994; 30(12): 3405-3421.
[49] Menabbde M, Seed A, Pegram G. A simple scaling model for extreme rainfall [J] . Water Resource. Res., 1999; 35(1): 335-339.
[50] Mandelbrot B B. The fractal geometry of nature [M]. NewYork: Freeman, 1983:248-255
[51] Barton. I.J and Bathols, J.M. Monitoring Flood with AVARR, Remote Sensing of Environment, 1989, 30 (1)
[52] Redfietd G W. Ecological research for aquatic science and environmental restoration in South Florida [J] . Ecological Applications, 2000, 10(4): 900-1005.
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