内蒙古现代物流的现状与发展研究
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摘要
近几年来,随着市场经济的快速增长,内蒙古加快了现代物流结构的调整步伐,现代物流对市场经济和社会发展的适应状况有了较大的改善,但仍滞后于市场的要求。因此,现代物流自身的发展与社会经济及其他产业相协调发展的结构性问题,仍是人们需要研究的重要课题。
本文针对内蒙古现代物流发展缓慢的问题,在分析和研究内蒙古现代物流发展的现状及存在的问题的基础上,结合内蒙古道路运输发展的实际情况和国外理论实践的借鉴以及自己的一些想法,运用定性和定量相结合的原则,选用弹性系数法和发展趋势预测相结合的方法,对“十一五”期间我区现代物流需求进行预测分析,针对内蒙古物流发展存在的问题,提出了政策保障措施及建议。
本文具有针对性地提出了现代物流的基本结构、站场布局、运力结构、服务体系等方面的调整方案,并对方案进行了综合评价,对内蒙古现代物流来说,是一项新的工作,对该地区物流发展具有一定指导意义。
Modern logistics industry, because of its convenient, flexible and efficient characteristics, plays an important role to economic development and people's life. Since reform and opening up, the cargo volume transported by modern logistics industry in Inner Mongolia accounted for about 74 percent of the total volume by the integrated transportation of cargo, which will play increasingly significant role in overall socio-economic development, especially in the integrated transportation. Along with the development of the economy and the changing of industrial structure, product structure, consume structure, especially the social demands structure, the technique level of every transportation itself increased continuously after the China reforming and the opening the door. In the last few years, along with the market economy’s faster growth, the step of structure adjustment of the road transportation has been speeded up in Inner Mongolia, and the road transportation has been improved to adapt the market economy and the society development. But, the road transporting industry still obviously lags to the market request. Thus, in order to develop the whole system, the road transportation itself progressing and the adaptability to the other transportation way still need to be paid attention more and more.
Facing the slow development of modern logistics industry of Inner Mongolia, through the analysis and study on the present situation and existing problems of modern logistics development in Inner Mongolia, drawing the actual situation of the road transport development in Inner Mongolia with foreign theory and practice and some of my own ideas, starting from the modern logistics industry for research, Modern logistics industry to the starting point for research, this paper investigates and analyzes the relationship between the modern logistics industry structure and economic development and highway transport of goods, and establishes the theoretical system of a modern logistics industry structure and economic development. According to available data on modern logistics industry, this paper analyzes and forecasts the future freight volume and cargo turnover volume, and identifies the adjustment goals. Through the evaluation of feasibility and scientific of these goals, this paper proposes the methods for adjusting modern logistics industry structure, which accommodates the transport industry structure with economic development and promotes healthy development to modern logistics industry, and identifies the development plan and ensure measures. Main contents include the following:
(1) According to the present situation and development trend of modern logistics industry development in our country, this paper analysis the SWOT of modern logistics industry in Inner Mongolia, socio-economic situation, the logistics industry volume size, the logistics industry facilities and the quality of the logistics industry, through which finds the problem existing in modern logistics industry in Inner Mongolia and proposes the development trend of modern logistics industry;
(2) Inner Mongolia socio-economic development levels, industrial structure and product structure of the national economy, road infrastructure, and influences caused by other mode of transport to the logistics industry are analyzed, and environment, economy and transportation structure needs for the development of modern logistics industry in Inner Mongolia are analyzed and forecasted in this paper;
(3) According to the existing problem of the logistics development, proposing the ensure measures and suggestions to the development of logistics in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
Through the above three aspects, first, this paper put forward the adjustment programs on the basic structure of modern logistics, the station layout, the transport structure, service system and so on, and conduct a comprehensive evaluation to them, which is a pioneering work of the modern logistics industry in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Second, this paper demonstrate the development trend of modern logistics industry of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region with the comparison method, analyze the characteristics and relationship between modern logistics and economic development, and setting up an evaluation index system and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, which makes the evaluation findings more in line with the reality of Inner Mongolia. The study in this paper may guide the logistics development of this region.
本文针对内蒙古现代物流发展缓慢的问题,在分析和研究内蒙古现代物流发展的现状及存在的问题的基础上,结合内蒙古道路运输发展的实际情况和国外理论实践的借鉴以及自己的一些想法,运用定性和定量相结合的原则,选用弹性系数法和发展趋势预测相结合的方法,对“十一五”期间我区现代物流需求进行预测分析,针对内蒙古物流发展存在的问题,提出了政策保障措施及建议。
本文具有针对性地提出了现代物流的基本结构、站场布局、运力结构、服务体系等方面的调整方案,并对方案进行了综合评价,对内蒙古现代物流来说,是一项新的工作,对该地区物流发展具有一定指导意义。
Modern logistics industry, because of its convenient, flexible and efficient characteristics, plays an important role to economic development and people's life. Since reform and opening up, the cargo volume transported by modern logistics industry in Inner Mongolia accounted for about 74 percent of the total volume by the integrated transportation of cargo, which will play increasingly significant role in overall socio-economic development, especially in the integrated transportation. Along with the development of the economy and the changing of industrial structure, product structure, consume structure, especially the social demands structure, the technique level of every transportation itself increased continuously after the China reforming and the opening the door. In the last few years, along with the market economy’s faster growth, the step of structure adjustment of the road transportation has been speeded up in Inner Mongolia, and the road transportation has been improved to adapt the market economy and the society development. But, the road transporting industry still obviously lags to the market request. Thus, in order to develop the whole system, the road transportation itself progressing and the adaptability to the other transportation way still need to be paid attention more and more.
Facing the slow development of modern logistics industry of Inner Mongolia, through the analysis and study on the present situation and existing problems of modern logistics development in Inner Mongolia, drawing the actual situation of the road transport development in Inner Mongolia with foreign theory and practice and some of my own ideas, starting from the modern logistics industry for research, Modern logistics industry to the starting point for research, this paper investigates and analyzes the relationship between the modern logistics industry structure and economic development and highway transport of goods, and establishes the theoretical system of a modern logistics industry structure and economic development. According to available data on modern logistics industry, this paper analyzes and forecasts the future freight volume and cargo turnover volume, and identifies the adjustment goals. Through the evaluation of feasibility and scientific of these goals, this paper proposes the methods for adjusting modern logistics industry structure, which accommodates the transport industry structure with economic development and promotes healthy development to modern logistics industry, and identifies the development plan and ensure measures. Main contents include the following:
(1) According to the present situation and development trend of modern logistics industry development in our country, this paper analysis the SWOT of modern logistics industry in Inner Mongolia, socio-economic situation, the logistics industry volume size, the logistics industry facilities and the quality of the logistics industry, through which finds the problem existing in modern logistics industry in Inner Mongolia and proposes the development trend of modern logistics industry;
(2) Inner Mongolia socio-economic development levels, industrial structure and product structure of the national economy, road infrastructure, and influences caused by other mode of transport to the logistics industry are analyzed, and environment, economy and transportation structure needs for the development of modern logistics industry in Inner Mongolia are analyzed and forecasted in this paper;
(3) According to the existing problem of the logistics development, proposing the ensure measures and suggestions to the development of logistics in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
Through the above three aspects, first, this paper put forward the adjustment programs on the basic structure of modern logistics, the station layout, the transport structure, service system and so on, and conduct a comprehensive evaluation to them, which is a pioneering work of the modern logistics industry in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Second, this paper demonstrate the development trend of modern logistics industry of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region with the comparison method, analyze the characteristics and relationship between modern logistics and economic development, and setting up an evaluation index system and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, which makes the evaluation findings more in line with the reality of Inner Mongolia. The study in this paper may guide the logistics development of this region.
引文
[1]杨家其,肖三亮.论港口物流化发展思路[M].交通企业管理.2002。
[2]索沪生.物流的发展与公路运输业的战略转变.集装箱[M].1999。
[3]J.de D.Ortuzar Modelling Transport John Wiley & Sons[M].1994.
[4]内蒙古统计年鉴[J].(1997-2006):101-155。
[5]张国伍. 交通运输系统分析[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社.1991。
[6]Yosefsheffi.Urban Transportation Networks.Prentic-Hall, INC[M],1985。
[7]Paul H.Wright.Transportation Engineering-Planning and Design.John Wiley & Sons New York.Chichester.Brisbane.Toronto[M],1989。
[8]蒋惠园 电子商务环境下运输业物流发展战略.综合运输[J]. 2001:100-106。
[9]Transportation Research Record No.1466.Issues in Land Use and Transportation Planning,Models,and Applications[M].1994。
[10]Eiichi Taniguchi,Michihiko Noritakeetal.Optimal size and location planning of public logistics terminals.Transportation Research Part E35[J],1999:207-222。
[11]Head K L,Mirchandani P B,Sheppard D.Hierarchy Framework for Real Time.Traffic Control,Transpn.Research Record[M],1992。
[12]Transportation Research Record No.1466.Issues in Land Use and Transportation Planning,Models,and Applications[M].1994。
[13]Sherali H D,Sivanandan R,Hobeika A G,Narayanan A.Estimating Missing Link Volunes in a Traffic Network ---A Linear Programming Approach,Reanspn.Rearch Board,73rd Annual Meeting,Washington D.C. [M],1994。
[14]Sivanandan R,Sherali H D,Hobeika A G.A New Approach for Estimating Origin—Destination Trip Tables from Traffic Counts .Transpn.Research Board,73rd Annual Meeting,Washington D.C. [J],1994,No. 846-940.
[15]物流网.http://www.56net.com。
[16]冯耕中.我国现代物流研究的现状与展望[M].现代企业管理.2002。
[17]刘晓红.浅议物流热[M].综合运输.2001。
[18]丁俊发主编.中国物流[M].中国物资出版社.2002。
[19]物流网.http://www.8856.com。
[20]Eiichi Taniguchi,Michihiko Noritake etal.Optimal size and location planning of public logistics terminals.Transportation Research Part E35[J],1999:207-222。
[21]中国交通运输学会.中国物流发展现状及对策研究[J].国际经贸消息.2001:66-70。
[22]李辉民.找准运输企业发展物流的切入点[M].交通企业管理.2000。
[23] 马书红.公路交通的适应性及其评价技术研究[J].重庆交通学院学报,2004,23(5):70-75。
[24] 胡列格,刘中,杨明编著.交通枢纽与港站[M].人民交通出版社,2003。
[25] 张广明,王少农.西部大开发.天津[J]:天津社会科学院出版社,2000,45-52。
[26] 王际祥.货运需求与经济发展[J].北京:中国铁道出版社,1996,178-183。
[27] 杜晓凯.公路交通与旅游发展适应性分析研究[J]:[长安大学硕士学位论文].长安:长安大学交通运输规划与管理[J],2003,78-86。
[28] 张绪胜.西部大开发:战略·对策·信息. [J] 北京:经济管理出版社,2000,26-35。
[29] Kamesh Vedula, Rick Miller, Mustaque Hossain.(2003)Adaptability of AASHTO Provisional Standards for Condition Surveys for Roughness and Faulting in Kansas[M]. Proceedings of the 2003 Mid-Continent Transportation Research Symposium。
[30] HE Jie,LI Xuhong, BAO Xiangtai. (2005)The Condition Development and Suggestions of Policy of the Highway Express Freight Transportation System In China. Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies[J], Vol. 5, 1394-1407。
[31] 朱顺应,王红,朱真才.公路交通与经济发展适应性客观模糊评价[J].重庆交通学院学报,2004,23(1):36-41。
[32] Susan Petty, Frances Banerjee, Ysela Llort.Sustainable Transportation Practices in Europe[M]. November, 2001。
[33] 李卫东,王稼琼.我国公路交通与社会经济发展的适应性刍议.交通运输系统工程与信息,2005,5(3):9-12。
[34] 吕延昌,牛向东.公路网的适应性评价[J] .山东交通学院学报,13(1):21-24。
[35] Weiner Edward, Urban Transportation Planning in the United States, Praeger Publishers[M], 1997。
[36] Richard H. Day. Behavioral economics: implications for economic theory and policy[M]. The Journal of Socio-Economics,2004.
[37] 康斌.河北省公路网适应性研究[J]:[河北工业大学硕士学位论文].天津:河北工业大学结构工程系,2002,23-36。
[38] 杨楠,杨兆升,保丽霞.威海市公路网发展规模预测及适应性评价[J]. 交通与计算机,2005,23(6):19-21。
[39] 蒋尚华,吴清烈.预测与决策分析[J]. 南京:东南大学出版社,2004.2,36-43。
[40] 胡浩.陕西省公路建设规模适应性分析[J] [长安大学硕士学位论文]. 长安:长安大学交通运输规划与管理,2003,55-59。
[41] Richard H. Day. Behavioral economics: implications for economic theory and policy. The Journal of Socio-Economics[M],2004。
[42] Gregory A. Godfrey, Warren B. Powell. (2000)Adaptive estimation of daily demands with complex calendar effects for freight transportation.Transportation Research[J], Vol. 34,451-469。
[43] C.S.Papacostas and P.D.Prevedouros.Transportation Engineering & Planning.Prentice Hall[M], 1993。
[44] Speeding. U.S. Department of Transportation. Traffic Safety Facts 2003[R]. NHTSA[M], 2004。
[45] Motorcycles. U.S. Department of Transportation. TrafficSafety Facts 2003[R]. NHTSA[M]. 2004。
[46] Large Trucks. U.S. Department of Transportation. Traffic Safety Facts2003[R]. NHTSA[M], 2004。
[47] Children U.S. Department of transportation. Traffic Safety Facts 2003[R]. NHTSA[M], 2004。
[48] Young Drivers. U.S. Department of Transportation. Traffic Safety Facts 2003[R]. NHTSA[M], 2004。
[49] Alcohol. U.S. Department of Transportation Traffic Safety Facts 2003[R]. NHTSA[M], 2004。
[50] Pedalcyclists. U.S. Department of Transportation. Traffic Safety Facts2003[R]. NHTSA[M], 2004。
[51] U.S department of Transportation. Transportation Statistics Annual Report 2004[R]. NHTSA[M], 2005。
[52] Transportation Statistics Annual Report (TSAR) SEPTEMBER[M] 2004,Bureau of Transportation Statistics。
[2]索沪生.物流的发展与公路运输业的战略转变.集装箱[M].1999。
[3]J.de D.Ortuzar Modelling Transport John Wiley & Sons[M].1994.
[4]内蒙古统计年鉴[J].(1997-2006):101-155。
[5]张国伍. 交通运输系统分析[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社.1991。
[6]Yosefsheffi.Urban Transportation Networks.Prentic-Hall, INC[M],1985。
[7]Paul H.Wright.Transportation Engineering-Planning and Design.John Wiley & Sons New York.Chichester.Brisbane.Toronto[M],1989。
[8]蒋惠园 电子商务环境下运输业物流发展战略.综合运输[J]. 2001:100-106。
[9]Transportation Research Record No.1466.Issues in Land Use and Transportation Planning,Models,and Applications[M].1994。
[10]Eiichi Taniguchi,Michihiko Noritakeetal.Optimal size and location planning of public logistics terminals.Transportation Research Part E35[J],1999:207-222。
[11]Head K L,Mirchandani P B,Sheppard D.Hierarchy Framework for Real Time.Traffic Control,Transpn.Research Record[M],1992。
[12]Transportation Research Record No.1466.Issues in Land Use and Transportation Planning,Models,and Applications[M].1994。
[13]Sherali H D,Sivanandan R,Hobeika A G,Narayanan A.Estimating Missing Link Volunes in a Traffic Network ---A Linear Programming Approach,Reanspn.Rearch Board,73rd Annual Meeting,Washington D.C. [M],1994。
[14]Sivanandan R,Sherali H D,Hobeika A G.A New Approach for Estimating Origin—Destination Trip Tables from Traffic Counts .Transpn.Research Board,73rd Annual Meeting,Washington D.C. [J],1994,No. 846-940.
[15]物流网.http://www.56net.com。
[16]冯耕中.我国现代物流研究的现状与展望[M].现代企业管理.2002。
[17]刘晓红.浅议物流热[M].综合运输.2001。
[18]丁俊发主编.中国物流[M].中国物资出版社.2002。
[19]物流网.http://www.8856.com。
[20]Eiichi Taniguchi,Michihiko Noritake etal.Optimal size and location planning of public logistics terminals.Transportation Research Part E35[J],1999:207-222。
[21]中国交通运输学会.中国物流发展现状及对策研究[J].国际经贸消息.2001:66-70。
[22]李辉民.找准运输企业发展物流的切入点[M].交通企业管理.2000。
[23] 马书红.公路交通的适应性及其评价技术研究[J].重庆交通学院学报,2004,23(5):70-75。
[24] 胡列格,刘中,杨明编著.交通枢纽与港站[M].人民交通出版社,2003。
[25] 张广明,王少农.西部大开发.天津[J]:天津社会科学院出版社,2000,45-52。
[26] 王际祥.货运需求与经济发展[J].北京:中国铁道出版社,1996,178-183。
[27] 杜晓凯.公路交通与旅游发展适应性分析研究[J]:[长安大学硕士学位论文].长安:长安大学交通运输规划与管理[J],2003,78-86。
[28] 张绪胜.西部大开发:战略·对策·信息. [J] 北京:经济管理出版社,2000,26-35。
[29] Kamesh Vedula, Rick Miller, Mustaque Hossain.(2003)Adaptability of AASHTO Provisional Standards for Condition Surveys for Roughness and Faulting in Kansas[M]. Proceedings of the 2003 Mid-Continent Transportation Research Symposium。
[30] HE Jie,LI Xuhong, BAO Xiangtai. (2005)The Condition Development and Suggestions of Policy of the Highway Express Freight Transportation System In China. Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies[J], Vol. 5, 1394-1407。
[31] 朱顺应,王红,朱真才.公路交通与经济发展适应性客观模糊评价[J].重庆交通学院学报,2004,23(1):36-41。
[32] Susan Petty, Frances Banerjee, Ysela Llort.Sustainable Transportation Practices in Europe[M]. November, 2001。
[33] 李卫东,王稼琼.我国公路交通与社会经济发展的适应性刍议.交通运输系统工程与信息,2005,5(3):9-12。
[34] 吕延昌,牛向东.公路网的适应性评价[J] .山东交通学院学报,13(1):21-24。
[35] Weiner Edward, Urban Transportation Planning in the United States, Praeger Publishers[M], 1997。
[36] Richard H. Day. Behavioral economics: implications for economic theory and policy[M]. The Journal of Socio-Economics,2004.
[37] 康斌.河北省公路网适应性研究[J]:[河北工业大学硕士学位论文].天津:河北工业大学结构工程系,2002,23-36。
[38] 杨楠,杨兆升,保丽霞.威海市公路网发展规模预测及适应性评价[J]. 交通与计算机,2005,23(6):19-21。
[39] 蒋尚华,吴清烈.预测与决策分析[J]. 南京:东南大学出版社,2004.2,36-43。
[40] 胡浩.陕西省公路建设规模适应性分析[J] [长安大学硕士学位论文]. 长安:长安大学交通运输规划与管理,2003,55-59。
[41] Richard H. Day. Behavioral economics: implications for economic theory and policy. The Journal of Socio-Economics[M],2004。
[42] Gregory A. Godfrey, Warren B. Powell. (2000)Adaptive estimation of daily demands with complex calendar effects for freight transportation.Transportation Research[J], Vol. 34,451-469。
[43] C.S.Papacostas and P.D.Prevedouros.Transportation Engineering & Planning.Prentice Hall[M], 1993。
[44] Speeding. U.S. Department of Transportation. Traffic Safety Facts 2003[R]. NHTSA[M], 2004。
[45] Motorcycles. U.S. Department of Transportation. TrafficSafety Facts 2003[R]. NHTSA[M]. 2004。
[46] Large Trucks. U.S. Department of Transportation. Traffic Safety Facts2003[R]. NHTSA[M], 2004。
[47] Children U.S. Department of transportation. Traffic Safety Facts 2003[R]. NHTSA[M], 2004。
[48] Young Drivers. U.S. Department of Transportation. Traffic Safety Facts 2003[R]. NHTSA[M], 2004。
[49] Alcohol. U.S. Department of Transportation Traffic Safety Facts 2003[R]. NHTSA[M], 2004。
[50] Pedalcyclists. U.S. Department of Transportation. Traffic Safety Facts2003[R]. NHTSA[M], 2004。
[51] U.S department of Transportation. Transportation Statistics Annual Report 2004[R]. NHTSA[M], 2005。
[52] Transportation Statistics Annual Report (TSAR) SEPTEMBER[M] 2004,Bureau of Transportation Statistics。
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