用Markov模型揭示岱海地区气候变化的周期性
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摘要
全球变化科学对揭示和理解人类赖以生存的地球系统运转的机制、变化规律具有重要的意义。近几十年来,人类活动对环境的影响程度不断加强,温室效应、全球变暖、臭氧层空洞、土地利用/土地覆盖变化、水资源枯竭使我们意识到地球系统的承载力有限。同时,对全球气候变化的研究也成为焦点,对过去环境演变的认识能够更好的预测未来气候演化的方向。
岱海地区是一个封闭的内陆盆地,其湖相沉积物的保存比较完好,能够很好的反映区域的气候变化。孢粉分析显示出该地区12000a以来的植被和气候演化与其它地区有很好对应。基于在中国北方地区建立的孢粉-气候转换函数可以将该地区的孢粉组合定量转化为气温和降水的数据。
马尔科夫链模型对随机序列的分析有很好的解释意义,在天气现象和灾害预测方面有很好的应用,本文试图将此模型应用到岱海孢粉反映的气温和降水数据分析之中。计算结果显示气候状态变化存在60a、80a、180a、400a、900a等周期,和现代观测记录所反映的太阳活动周期和地震活动周期一致。说明在短时间尺度上,太阳活动和地内因素仍然是气候波动的主要驱动力之一。
本文的创新之处在于:将马尔科夫链模型对周期的分析应用到气候波动的数据分析中,进一步证实了太阳辐射量变化仍是短时间尺度内气候波动的主要驱动力;近代人类活动是造成气候更大幅度的波动的主要原因之一。
Global Change Science plays a significant role in studying and understanding the mechanism and evolution of Earth system on which human beings live. In recent decades, human activities have changed the Earth’s environment. The green house effect, global warming, hole of ozonosphere, changes of land use and land cover, drain of water resources have made us aware the limited potency that the environment could suffer before collapse. At the same time, researches are concentrated on the evolution of the global change, because knowing the past and mechanism of the climate can help us predicting the future.
The Daihai region is an enclosed basin, its lacustrine sediments indicating the climate are well preserved. Pollen anlysis of this area in last 1200 years reveals the vegetation and climate varition in accordance with other area. Based on Pollen-climate transfer function established in northern China, the composition of pollen can be quantitatively transfered into numerical data of temperature and precipitation.
Markov chain model, which is a mathematical way solving dynamic variation of random serial, can be applied to analyze the data which the pollen composition of Daihai region has revealed. The outcome of the calculation betray that the climate variation has periods of 60a、80a、180a、400a、900a, which in relation with activity of the sun and earthquake. So we draw the conclusion that the sun activity and interior earth factor are the main drives of climate change even in short time scale.
The innovation of this article is that: using Markov chain model to anlyze the periodicity of climate change; finding the main drive of climate change and the enlarged climate viberation due to human activity.
岱海地区是一个封闭的内陆盆地,其湖相沉积物的保存比较完好,能够很好的反映区域的气候变化。孢粉分析显示出该地区12000a以来的植被和气候演化与其它地区有很好对应。基于在中国北方地区建立的孢粉-气候转换函数可以将该地区的孢粉组合定量转化为气温和降水的数据。
马尔科夫链模型对随机序列的分析有很好的解释意义,在天气现象和灾害预测方面有很好的应用,本文试图将此模型应用到岱海孢粉反映的气温和降水数据分析之中。计算结果显示气候状态变化存在60a、80a、180a、400a、900a等周期,和现代观测记录所反映的太阳活动周期和地震活动周期一致。说明在短时间尺度上,太阳活动和地内因素仍然是气候波动的主要驱动力之一。
本文的创新之处在于:将马尔科夫链模型对周期的分析应用到气候波动的数据分析中,进一步证实了太阳辐射量变化仍是短时间尺度内气候波动的主要驱动力;近代人类活动是造成气候更大幅度的波动的主要原因之一。
Global Change Science plays a significant role in studying and understanding the mechanism and evolution of Earth system on which human beings live. In recent decades, human activities have changed the Earth’s environment. The green house effect, global warming, hole of ozonosphere, changes of land use and land cover, drain of water resources have made us aware the limited potency that the environment could suffer before collapse. At the same time, researches are concentrated on the evolution of the global change, because knowing the past and mechanism of the climate can help us predicting the future.
The Daihai region is an enclosed basin, its lacustrine sediments indicating the climate are well preserved. Pollen anlysis of this area in last 1200 years reveals the vegetation and climate varition in accordance with other area. Based on Pollen-climate transfer function established in northern China, the composition of pollen can be quantitatively transfered into numerical data of temperature and precipitation.
Markov chain model, which is a mathematical way solving dynamic variation of random serial, can be applied to analyze the data which the pollen composition of Daihai region has revealed. The outcome of the calculation betray that the climate variation has periods of 60a、80a、180a、400a、900a, which in relation with activity of the sun and earthquake. So we draw the conclusion that the sun activity and interior earth factor are the main drives of climate change even in short time scale.
The innovation of this article is that: using Markov chain model to anlyze the periodicity of climate change; finding the main drive of climate change and the enlarged climate viberation due to human activity.
引文
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[40] 李卫东,李保国,石元春.应用 Markov 链理论定量描述区域冲积土壤质地层次的垂向变化特征.土壤学报.1999,2:(15-23).
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[2] 蓝先洪. 高分辨率古环境变化研究.海洋地质动态.1999.5:(4-6)
[3] 蓝先洪.Heinrich 事件研究及其意义.海洋地质动态,1998,(5):4~6
[4] Broecker,W.S. and G.H.Denton. The role of ocean atmosphere reorganizations in glacial cycles. Ceochi-micaet Cosmochimica Acta,1989,53(2):2465~2501.
[5] Grootes, P.M. etal.. Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP2 and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature, 1993, 366(6435):552~554.
[6] 汪品先,翦知湣.寻求高分辨率的古环境记录.第四纪研究.1999,1:(1-17).
[7] Grootes, P. M. etal..Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP2 and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature,1993,366(6435):552～554.
[8] An, Z. S. and S. C. Porter. Millennial-scale climat ioscillations during the last interglaciation in central China.Geology,1997,25(7):603～606.
[9] Deines P. The isotopic composition of reduced organic carbon[A].Fritz P, Fontes J C, eds. Handbook of environmental isotope geochemistry I, the terrestrial environment[M]. Amsterdam:Elsevier,1980.329-406.
[10] 傅家谟,盛国英.分子有机地球化学与古气候、古环境研究[J].第四纪研究,1992,4:306-320.
[11] Brassell S C, Eglington G, Marlowe L T, Pflaumann U, Sarnthein M. Molecular stratigraphy: A new tool for climatic assessment[J]. Nature,1986,320:129-133.
[12] Singer A. The palaeoclimatic interpretation of minerals in sediments- A review [J]. Earth Science Review,1984,21:251-293.
[13] Kelts K. Geological fingerprints of climate history: A cooperative study of Qinghai Lake, China [J].Eclogae.Geol.Helv.,1989,82:167-182.
[14] Urey H C. The thermodynamic properties of isotopic substances[J]. J. Chem. Soc.,1947,562-581.
[15] McCrea J M. On the isotopic chemistry of carbonates and palaeo-temperaturescale[J].J.Chem.Phys.1950,18:849-857.
[16] Stuiver M. Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios of fresh-water carbonates as climatic indicators [J]. J.Geophy.Res.1970,75:5247-5257.
[17] Gasse F, Fontes J C, Plaziat J C, etal. Biological remains geochemistry and stable isotopes for the reconstruction of environmental and hydrological changes in the Holocene lakes from North Sahara[J]. Palaeogeograpgy, Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology, 1987,60(1-2):1-46.
[18] 陈敬安,万国江,张峰,DavidDianZhang,黄荣贵.不同时间尺度下的湖泊沉积物环境记录———以粒度为例[J].中国科学(D 辑),2003,33(6):563-568.
[19] 沈吉,王苏民,R.Matsumoto,等.内蒙古岱海古水温定量恢复及其古气候意义.中国科学(D 辑).2001.12:(1017-1023).
[20] 竺可桢.中国近五千年来气候变迁的初步研究.中国科学,1973,(2):168~189.
[21] 姚檀栋,Thompson L. G.敦德冰芯记录与过去 5ka 温度变化.中国科学,B辑.1992,(10):1089~1093.
[22] 施雅风,孔昭宸.中国全新世大暖期气候与环境.北京:海洋出版社,1992.1~18.
[23] 许清海,肖举乐,中村俊夫,等.孢粉记录的岱海盆地 1500 年以来气候变化. 第四纪研究.2004.5:(341-346).
[24] 曹建廷,王苏民,沈吉,等.近千年来内蒙古岱海气候环境演变的湖泊沉积记录. 地理科学.2000.10:(391-396).
[25] Celina Campell. Late Holocene lake sedimentology and climate change in southern Alberta,Canada[J].QuaternaryResearch,1997,(49):96-101.
[26] 陈敬安,万国江,唐德贵,等.洱海近代气候变化的沉积物粒度与同位素记录[J].自然科学进展,2000,10(3):253-259.
[27] 鹿化煜,安芷生.前处理方法对黄土沉积物粒度测量影响的实验研究[J].科学通报,1997,42(23):2535-2538.
[28] 孙永传,李惠生.碎屑岩沉积相和沉积环境[M].北京:地质出版社,1986.65-81.
[29] 孙千里,周杰,肖举乐.岱海沉积物粒度特征及其古环境意义. 海洋地质与第四纪地质 2001.2:(93-95).
[30] 孙千里.岱海湖泊沉积所记录的最近 13000 年的气候、环境演变[D].硕士论文.
[31] 田广金,唐晓峰.岱海地区距今 7000-2000 年间人地关系研究. 中国历史地理论丛 2001.9:(4-13).
[32] 李凤娟,刘吉平.近百年长春市旱涝的马尔科夫链分析.吉林农业大学学报. 2005,27(6):594~598.
[33] 查秀芳.马尔科夫链在市场预测中的作用. 江苏大学学报 2003.1:(110-113).
[34] 严伟,钱育渝.马尔科夫预测在房地产市场营销中的应用研究. 重庆建筑大学学报 2004.4:(110-115).
[35] 王梓坤.随机过程论[M].北京:科学出版社.1978.
[36] 袁荫棠.概率论与数理统计.中国人民大学出版社.1989.
[37] Anderson T W, Goodman L A. Statistical inference about Markov Chain. Ann. Math. StaL,1957,28:89-110.
[38] 钱家忠,朱学愚,吴剑锋. 地下水资源评价中降水量的时间序列马尔可夫模型. 地理科学. 2001.8(350-353).
[39] 徐学荣,林少伟.福建粮食单产风险预警的马尔科夫方法. 福建农林大学学报2005,8(1):38-40.
[40] 李卫东,李保国,石元春.应用 Markov 链理论定量描述区域冲积土壤质地层次的垂向变化特征.土壤学报.1999,2:(15-23).
[41] 王苏民 , 余源盛 , 吴瑞金 , 等 . 岱海 [M]. 合肥 : 中国科学技术大学出版社,1990.1-13.
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