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青藏高原土壤湿度分布特征及其对长江中下游6、7月降水的影响
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摘要
采用美国气候预测中心1961-2014年逐月土壤湿度资料以及国家气象信息中心降水格点数据,分析了青藏高原土壤湿度的时空分布特征,以及高原春季土壤湿度对长江中下游6、7月降水的影响。结果表明:青藏高原年和不同季节的土壤湿度空间分布特征基本一致,均呈现从东南向西北减少的趋势。区域平均的土壤湿度显示出高原土壤春季最为干燥,秋季和夏季较为湿润;近50a来青藏高原大部的年、季节土壤湿度均呈略微增加趋势,年、季土壤湿度从20世纪60年代至90年代基本上呈减少,21世纪00年代开始呈缓慢增加趋势。青藏高原春季土壤湿度与长江中下游降水量青藏高原基本呈负相关关系。通过信度检验的负相关区在6月位于高原东北部和西南部,7月位于高原南部,且高原西北部分区域春季土壤湿度和7月降水量存在显著正相关。高原春季土壤湿度通过对高原地表温度的作用,进而影响到高原热力特征、大气环流以及长江中下游降水分布规律。
In order to understand the temporal and spatial distribution of soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau and its influence on the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin, with monthly dataset of soil moisture derived from CPC(Climate Prediction Center) and monthly precipitation obtained from NMIC(National Meteorological Information Center) of CMA(Chinese Meteorological Administration) during 1961-2014, the distribution of soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau has been investigated along with its effect on the precipitation in June and July over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin on the basis of correlation analysis. Result shows that seasonal spatial distributions of soil moisture are consistent with the annual distribution and all of them decrease from the southeast part to the northwest part of the Tibetan Plateau. The regional soil moisture presents that it is extremely dry in spring while the moisture is quite humid in autumn and summer over the plateau. Considering the most parts of the plateau, the annual and seasonal soil moistures exhibit slightly increasing trend during the past 50 years. The annual and the seasonal soil moisture basically indicate decreasing trend from 1960 s to 1990 s, and they increase gradually with small magnitude from twenty-first century to the present years. The precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin is negatively related to the spring soil moisture over the plateau on the whole. The negative relation areas which exceed the confidence level are mainly located in the northeast and southwest parts of the plateau in June. The negative areas are situated in the southern plateau while the positive areas are located in the northwest part of the Plateau in July. The spring soil moisture is contributed to the precipitation distribution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin by means of its effect on the surface temperature, atmospheric circulation and thermal forcing over the Plateau.
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