基于模糊超对策的军事冲突建模与分析

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• 英文论文题名：Modeling and Analysis for Military Conflict Based on Fuzzy Hypergame
• 论文作者：宋业新 ; 赵玉亮
• 英文论文作者：SONG Ye-xin ; ZHAO Yu-liang ; College of Science ; Naval University of Engineering
• 年：2017
• 作者机构：海军工程大学理学院;
• 论文关键词：军事冲突 ; 模糊偏好认知 ; 超对策分析 ; 均衡结局
• 英文论文关键词：Military Conflict ; Fuzzy Preference Perceptions ; Hypergame Analysis ; Equilibrium Outcome
• 会议召开时间：2017-07-03
• 会议录名称：第五届中国指挥控制大会论文集
• 语种：中文
• 分类号：E911
• 学会代码：ZHKZ
• 会议名称：第五届中国指挥控制大会
• 会议地点：中国北京
• 主办单位：中国指挥与控制学会
• 学会名称：中国指挥与控制学会
• 页数：5
• 文件大小：706k
• 原文格式：D
• 会议级别：全国

摘要

在实际军事冲突中,指挥员对敌方的信息认知通常是不完全和不确定的。本文将一类带有模糊偏好认知的军事冲突建模为一个模糊超对策,运用模糊相对距离测度确定出模型中清晰的偏好认知向量,通过超对策稳定性分析过程得到超对策均衡结局,并根据超对策均衡来预测判断军事冲突最可能的结局。最后,一个仿真实例验证了模型与分析方法的有效性。
In real military conflicts, the information of the opposite side perceived by the commander is often imperfect and uncertain. In this paper, the military conflict with fuzzy preference perception is modeled as a fuzzy hypergame. A concept of relative distance measure between fuzzy numbers is used to determine the crisp preference perception vectors. The process of hypergame stability analysis is given for obtaining the hypergame equilibria. According to these hypergame equilibria, the most possible outcomes of military conflicts can be efficiently forecasted. A simulation example is provided to illustrate the method.

引文

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