多重致灾因素耦合作用下堆积体斜坡失稳概率研究

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• 英文论文题名：Probabilistic Investigation of Deposit Slope under Coupled Multicausal Factors
• 论文作者：陈语 ; 李天斌 ; 曾鹏
• 英文论文作者：Chen Yu ; Li Tianbin ; Zeng Peng ; State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection ; Chengdu University of Technology
• 年：2016
• 作者机构：成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室;
• 论文关键词：堆积体斜坡 ; 回归周期 ; 失稳概率 ; 降雨诱发 ; 地震诱发
• 英文论文关键词：reliability ; deposit Slope ; return Period ; probability of failure ; earthquake-induced landslide ; rainfall-Induced landslide
• 会议召开时间：2016-10-14
• 会议录名称：“川藏铁路建设的挑战与对策”2016学术交流会论文集
• 语种：中文
• 分类号：P642.2;U416.1
• 学会代码：ZGTD
• 会议名称：“川藏铁路建设的挑战与对策”2016学术交流会
• 会议地点：中国四川成都
• 主办单位：中国铁道学会、中国铁道学会工程分会、中国中铁股份有限公司、中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司
• 学会名称：中国铁道学会
• 页数：7
• 文件大小：501k
• 原文格式：O
• 会议级别：全国

摘要

川藏交通廊道沿线地质环境复杂,具有深切峡谷、高烈度、气候环境恶劣等特点,广为分布的斜坡堆积体易在极端诱发条件下失稳,成为藏东南入藏道路建设与长期运营的潜在风险,并且一处断道,全线瘫痪,后果严重。本文以拉月堆积体斜坡为例,分析不同量级诱发事件的发生概率与回归周期,并结合可靠度分析方法,计算对应诱发作用下的斜坡失稳概率,揭示不同程度的危险性序列。以地震与降雨的诱发作用为例,将两者进行耦合计算,系统评价堆积体斜坡的危险性与潜在风险。结果表明:不同重现期降雨作用下稳定性结果相差较小,但地震作用下失稳概率较大,耦合计算结果为中等危险等级,需进行抗震设防以保证长期运营的安全稳定。
There exists a complex geological environment along the railway and highway to Tibet with characteristics of deep-cutting gorge,high ground motion intensity and terrible climate conditions.Widely distributed deposit slopes are vulnerable to some extreme triggering factors such as storm and earthquake,and all these have posed a potential risk to the construction and operation of the railway and highway to Tibet.This paper,based on the illustration of Layue landslide,analyzes the return period and rate of occurrence of causal factors with different magnitudes.With the addition of reliability method,the corresponding probability of slope fails under the certain level of triggers has been calculated respectively.Meanwhile,earthquake and rainfall as two explicit scenarios have been incorporated as examples to the implementation of coupled multi-triggers hazard analysis.The results suggested that the factor of safety and instability probability under different rainfall scenarios are almost the same,but the stability significantly decreases when considered quake scenarios which suggested that seismic mitigations are needed to ensure safety.

引文

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